Menu

Zack Greinke Brewers

NL Central Report: Milwaukee’s Chance To Make A Move

, , , , ,

At the start of the week the Milwaukee Brewers were left for dead by most baseball observers, including me and including pretty much every Brewer fan I see—and given that I live thirty miles from Miller Park that’s a fair number. Then catcher Jonathan Lucroy, swinging a red-hot bat, broke his hand in a freak accident and joined Alex Gonzalez and Mat Gamel as starters on the disabled list. And this week began with a four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, merely the team with the best record in baseball. As far as the good people of Wisconsin were concerned, the time had come to shift the conversation to fishing, summer vacations and early talk on the Green Bay Packers. But then the Brewers delivered a shocking four-game sweep of the Dodgers and put themselves back on the radar. Can the good times last long enough for Milwaukee to really get back into the hunt?

For all the talk of injuries—and there’s been a lot. Not only are the three Opening Day starters above all out, the latter two for the season, but Cesar Itzuris and Travis Ishikawa, the replacements at short and first are also on the list of walking wounded. But in spite of all that, Milwaukee’s biggest problem is that, to borrow a phrase from former NFL analyst John Madden, “stars aren’t playing like stars.” Consider the following…

*While Zack Greinke has had some brilliant starts this season, including last night’s 6-2 win that punctuated the sweep, his 3.46 ERA isn’t Cy Young-caliber and it was presumed at the start of the season that he needed to be more than just pretty good.

*Yovani Gallardo has been mediocre, with a 4.22 ERA in eleven starts, with the worst outings saved for the biggest games against division rivals.

*Randy Wolf didn’t have great things expected of him, but the #3 starter is usually a reliable innings-eater with a tolerable ERA. But 5.73 is not tolerable.

*John Axford has been erratic at closer. While a blown save, something he didn’t have last year, was inevitable, he’s also lost two games and with a 3.26 ERA has been less than reliable. He’s part of a bullpen where only Kameron Loe has an ERA below 3.

*Then we come to Rickie Weeks…the man who was the best second baseman in the National League a year ago, the culmination of steady improvement year-by-year, is hitting .158. His power, normally pretty good for a middle infielder at the top of the order is gone, with a slugging percentage of a meager .294. He’s taking his walks, with 31 free passes, but he’s struck out an astonishing 65 times. Weeks has morphed into Adam Dunn without the home runs. Then couple that with the fact centerfielder Nyjer Morgan has been almost as bad, and there is no one to set the table.

A lack of runners on base means that another solid season from Ryan Braun can’t have the kind of offensive impact it otherwise would. More alarmingly, it means Braun doesn’t have to given anything to hit. This past week, opposing pitchers got the message and they walked the Brewer slugger seven times.

Milwaukee’s record sits on 23-28, good for fourth place in the NL Central and 5.5 games off the pace. They begin a nine-game homestand against third-place Pittsburgh, then last-place teams in the Cubs and Padres. If the Brewers are going to make a move, now’s the time and the personnel on hand simply has to  play like its capable.

Around the rest of the NL Central…

Cincinnati (28-22)—Brandon Phillips got his bat going this week, hitting .364 and making up for a slump by otherwise hot-hitting rookie shortstop Zack Cozart. And Todd Frazier, the young third baseman in for the injured Scott Rolen, hit well, including the home run that went viral. Cincy hit well and pitched well, but some luck was missing as they only played .500 ball over the past week.

St. Louis (27-24): The trying times in St. Louis keep getting more challenging, as they lost three of four to Philadelphia last weekend and then proved to be the perfect antidote to the slumping Braves, who beat them two of three. It’s the pitching that’s the problem, as Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia all got hit hard, and Garcia’s schedule start tonight at the Mets will be skipped as the club flies him back to St. Loo and get his elbow checked.

Pittsburgh (25-25): A sweep of the Cubs and series win over the Reds have put Clint Hurdle’s team back to .500 as the come into Milwaukee this weekend and will be subject to careful observation by yours truly when I’m out there Sunday, something I’m sure that’s a motivating factor in the Pirate clubhouse. Almost as motivating as the fact that in the last four starts by A.J. Burnett, James McDonald and Erik Bedard, they have combined for 26.1 IP and zero runs. And the offense, abysmal this season actually outperformed two NL teams in runs scored. Andrew McCutchen got some help from 27-year-old rookie first baseman Matt Hague, who went 6-for-19 with a couple doubles. Kudos to Hurdle for taking a shot with Hague rather than continuing to fail with “safe” veterans.

Houston (22-29): Forget I praised them last week. The Astros went into Colorado for a four-game set and gave up forty runs!  There are individual hitters—actually quite a few—still swinging good bats, but after a week like that, no good can be said.

ChiCubs (18-32): A sweep of San Diego earlier this week finally ended a long losing streak. The Cubbies got offense from the middle infield—Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney combined for 17 hits and four home runs—and the corner outfield as veterans David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano had good weeks. All the better to increase  the trade value of the outfielders, as I’m sure DeJesus will be moved this summer and Soriano might if GM Theo Epstein can find someone to take his contract. A tip of the cap also goes to the bullpen, especially middle men Shawn Camp and Casey Coleman. Each pitched in three games, averaged more than an inning per outing and did not allow a run.

MLB March Report: Milwaukee Brewers

, , , , ,

The Milwaukee Brewers had about as rough an offseason as is possible for a franchise that won its first division title of the post-1994 realignment era (when the leagues went to three divisions) and then won a playoff series against Arizona. It was no surprise that Prince Fielder took a big-money offer to go to Detroit, but no one was expecting the turmoil that Ryan Braun went through, first with steroid allegations and then an unprecedented vindication by the MLB arbitration panel on appeal . Now it’s time to just play baseball, so TheSportsNotebook takes a look at how the Brew Crew sizes up in terms of their ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

Shop for officially licensed Milwaukee Brewers apparel and accessories from Fanatics!
ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: It starts here with Rickie Weeks. The second baseman is good for an on-base percentage anywhere from .350 to .370, and though he doesn’t steal many bases, Weeks has good speed once aboard. Nyjer Morgan is the big key. He stepped up with the best year of his career, hitting .304. The key for Morgan will be better plate discipline—that average only got him a .357 OBP, so there needs to be more walks along with the hits. While his track record suggests the production won’t be as good, we also need to note that his poor year in 2010 with Washington was an even bigger aberration. Milwaukee would be further helped if catcher Jonathan Lucroy can rediscover the hitting stroke that made the first part of his first year as a big-league starter such a success last season.

POWER: We can’t diminish the importance of losing Fielder, but the cupboard is hardly bare in Brewtown. You can start with Braun, the reigning NL MVP, for whom the questions are more psychological—how will we stand up to the pressure and the certain heckles that will trail him all year, with many fans—and reportedly even many players—who seem to feel he snookered the arbitration panel. But let’s not overlook the signing of Aramis Ramirez to play third base. The former Cub has slugged over .500 and had an OBP well over .350 each year since 2004, with only one exception in ’10. At 33 years old and with a high salary, it made sense for a rebuilding Chicago team to let him walk. It made even more sense for Milwaukee to snag him up. Corey Hart plays rightfield and had his best year since 2007. He needs to avoid the pattern that befell him after ’07 which was to basically disappear. Weeks has popped 49 home runs over the last two seasons and presumably could muscle up some more if the team wants him to stop worry about table-setting and focus on table-cleaning. Finally we come to new shortstop Alex Gonzalez. The 35-year-old vet is in the majors because of his exquisite defense and a look at his offensive numbers will confirm that. But every once in a while Gonzalez gets on power tears that leave you scratching your head and wondering where it all came from. Even one of those this summer would be a welcome bonus for the Milwaukee offense.

STARTING PITCHING: Zack Greinke was brought to town from Kansas City in exchange for four good prospects because Milwaukee felt like he could be an ace. Yovani Gallardo is still the #1 starter because the Brewers feel he can be an ace. Now it’s time for both pitchers to start performing like aces. Gallardo has been respectable the past few years, making his 30-plus starts, picking up around 15 wins with an ERA in the high 3s. There’s nothing wrong with that, but Gallardo can do better. Greinke won the Cy Young Award with Kansas City in 2009, but had a down year in 2010 as his ERA jumped to 4.17. Last year he missed six weeks early, and still finished with a 3.83 ERA that was arguably worse than his last year in Kansas City once you adjusted for the loss of the DH when he switched leagues. Gallardo and Greinke need to be the cornerstone of Brewer success this year and those ERAs need to be under 3. Shawn Marcum’s two-year stats look consistent, as he’s made his 30-plus starts with an ERA in the mid-3s. That doesn’t reflect how awful Marcum pitched down the stretch and in the postseason. Will he be set to return to form? Randy Wolf has been a model of reliability, making 134 starts over his last four seasons, with ERAs in the 3s or low 4s. Chris Narveson is functionable at #5.

RELIEF PITCHING: John Axford has been the closer for two seasons. He’s gotten 75 save chances and nailed down 70, while maintaining an ERA close to 2. It’s safe to say the Brewers can feel confident in the ninth. And they can feel even more confident in the eighth, as Francisco Rodriguez surprisingly didn’t leave to become a closer elsewhere when he hit the open market last offseason. If you want to beat Milwaukee this year, do it in seven innings. Kameron Loe, Jose Veras and swingman Marco Estrada are respectable options for Ron Roenicke to use as he bridges the gap from the rotation to the two back-end relievers.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 85—Before I went to look at the number here, I was thinking that this Brewer club had an 85-win feel to them. I guess I wasn’t the only one who felt the way, so now it’s a tough decision on which way to play it. On the one hand…given Milwaukee won 96 games last year, this is a lot of disrespect, even allowing the offseason problems. Picking them to win 85 isn’t an act of disrespect, but setting that number as a presumed median ground? That’s pushing it. Because of their pitching, I would consider Milwaukee a better bet to end up 90-72 than I would to finish 80-82. Hence, the pick is the Over.