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NL West Report: Dodgers Work Some Early Magic

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The Los Angeles Dodgers couldn’t have asked for a better start to the 2012 MLB season. Just getting a new owner would have, in of itself, made the season for Dodger fans. But then you get Magic Johnson as the leader of the new ownership group, with a $2.1 billion price tag that reaffirms the value of your historic franchise? Then add to the fact your current team is winning games, rolling to a 13-5 record coming into Wednesday’s action. It can’t get much better for Dodger Nation. The question now is how much of this is sustainable.

L.A’s offense is being upheld by familiar pillars, as Andre Ethier is off to a solid start, slugging .565 and Matt Kemp is off to an otherworldly stuff, having already homered nine times, delivering on on-base percentage of .513 and a slugging line of .924. And this while playing their home games in a park that’s notoriously pitcher-friendly. Veteran second baseman Mark Ellis is setting the table, with a .375 OBP. On the pitching side of the equation, Clayton Kershaw has followed Kemp’s path of building on a phenomenal ’11 with an even better start to ’12. The young lefthander has four starts and a 1.61 ERA. In the bullpen, Javy Guerra has quickly answered a key question mark regarding the closer’s role by nailing down seven of his first eight chances.

But before TheSportsNotebook joins the giddiness we have to point out some less pleasant facts. While Chad Billingsley is being praised by pundits for his nice start to the season, I have to note that a 3.04 ERA is nothing special when pitching in Dodger Stadium—it’s certainly not bad, but for LA to contend, they either need Billingsley to step it up still further or build a rotation where 2 thru 5 are all in that low 3s neighborhood. And the rotation after Billingsley is struggling. First baseman James Loney has been struggling so long he ceases to be a disappointment, and Juan Rivera is also off to a slow start.  So the question is this—we know the Dodgers are going to cool off a bit, because no one plays at a 13-5 pace all year anyway. But will the cool down just bring them to back to the pack—they currently hold a 3.5 game lead, while still keeping the team in the race. Or will this just be the kind of start that’s quickly forgotten as the team falls out of contention. The answer to that lies as much with Los Angeles’ competition as it does with the Dodgers themselves, so on that note, let’s continue the first of what will be our regular weekly tours through the NL West…

San Francisco (9-8): Tim Lincecum has been positively awful out of the gate, with his 8.20 ERA in four starts, but the rest of the team is coming together pretty nicely. Barry Zito’s pitched very well and new leftfielder Melky Cabrera is showing he can be the pesky table-setter the Giants need him to be. Buster Posey is showing why the Giants missed him so much last summer, hitting for average, drawing for walks and driving it for power, while Pablo Sandoval is off to an All-Star caliber start. Manager Bruce Bochy can be further pleased with the hot start of Nathan Schierholtz. Some of this will cool down, but the anticipated turnaround from Lincecum will cure a lot of ills. The issue is going to be handling the transition in the bullpen now that Brian Wilson is gone for the year. Bochy has talented arms to work with, as depth was always this area’s calling card, but he has to get everyone situated in new roles. I expect San Fran will be fine, but the issue will be how quickly they get to fine. On Friday, Frisco starts a nine-game homestand against beatable opponents, so now’s the first chance to tighten that gap with the Dodgers.

Shop for officially licensed Arizona Diamondbacks apparel and accessories from Fanatics!Arizona (9-9): If you’re a Diamondbacks fan I think you have to be pretty happy. The back end of your starting rotation looks like a mess, you’re getting nicked up with injuries and your young corner infield talent isn’t hitting, but you’re still .500 and only four games back of the hottest team in baseball. New acquisitions Aaron Hill (who came over at the trade deadline last year) and Jason Kubel (who’s literally new) have picked up the offense, while Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill and Joe Saunders provide a balanced top three in the rotation. The concern? That the slow starts of third baseman Ryan Roberts and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt aren’t flukes, but signs that each is overrated. I like both, but neither has the track record that makes a turnaround something to simply assume. Another more immediate concern? A ten-game road trip out East that could turn the standings into a bigger concern if the D-Backs can’t at least tread water.

Colorado (8-8): The Rockies may be hanging at .500, but this pitching rotation is an absolute mess. Jamie Moyer is more than a great human interest story, in being the oldest pitcher to win a game at age 49. He’s the ace of the staff. If you’re a Colorado fan that ceases to be amusing. Rafael Betancourt has stabilized the closer spot, converting all five chances at a 1.29 ERA, but what good does that do if the rotation can’t get him the ball?

San Diego (5-13): We’ll sum up the Padres with this—they rank 7th in the National League in ERA. Which doesn’t sound too bad in a 16-team league, but when you play in a park so vast that Babe Ruth probably hits only 25-30 a year, it’s nowhere near acceptable. Clayton Richard, who needs to be a top two starter, has a 5.11 ERA after four starts, and if I was a sabermetrics guy, I’d immediately be running numbers to see what that would be if he pitched in a place like Philadelphia or on the north side of Chicago. Offensively, third baseman Chase Headley is showing he’s the real deal, with a .423/.581 line. While the offense has to be granted tolerance for park effects, it’s surely disappointing that top prospect Yonder Alonso is only hitting .196 with no home runs. He was a key part of the deal that sent starting pitcher Mat Latos to Cincinnati and closer to home one of my sleeper picks in a Fantasy League draft. I’ve cut him loose. The Padres need to make it work with him.

MLB March Report: San Diego Padres

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Spring training baseball previews continue today with the San Diego Padres. Just as TheSportsNotebook did yesterday with the Houston Astros, we’ll evaluate the Padres based on their ability to get on base, power, starting pitching and relief pitching, and then ask whether they can beat the Las Vegas Over/Under expectations on win totals. Final predictions in the standings will come in the days just before Opening Night on April 4. So without further adieu, let’s take a look at Bud Black’s Padres, as they try and improve on last year’s 71-91 campaign.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: With Petco Park swallowing up any attempts to hit for power, the Padres have to build their offense in this area. It would be a stretch to call them good, but there are some reasons for hope. Third baseman Chase Headley has had decent on-base percentages (OBP) since his career began with Black’s in 2007, and Headley had a career-high number of .374 last season. Nick Hundley can be one of the better offensive catchers in the National League, but he needs to stay healthy for a full season. San Diego made a great move in acquiring Cincinnati Reds’ prospect Yonder Alonso as part of a package for starting pitcher Mat Latos, and very limited duty last year showed Alonso to be a solid line-drive hitter who has the ability to turn into a real star. General manager Josh Byrnes liked Alonzo enough to not just deal one of his top starting pitching prospects, but to then turn around and deal another top 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo—a centerpiece of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Boston—to the Cubs. All of which is the long way of saying Alonso better be good, because Byrnes really put all his chips on the table.

It’s the veterans in the middle infield who are liabilities here. No one expects second baseman Orlando Hudson or shortstop Jason Bartlett to turn into power hitters, but they can show plate discipline and put up some decent OBPS. Yet Bartlett hasn’t had a productive season since 2009, while Hudson’s also been in decline for the last two seasons. Byrnes needs to look at some fresh blood up the middle. Fresh blood like Cameron Maybin in centerfielder. The speedy Maybin swiped 40 bases last season, and while he has a lot of work to do on his plate discipline, he is only 24 years old, so there’s plenty of reason to think he can get better. Chris Denorfia doesn’t have the same upside at age 31, but he is a respectable singles hitter and takes his walks, making him a possible candidate in rightfield if the organization tires of waiting for Will Venable to fulfill his promise, and certainly as a fourth outfielder.

San Diego’s ability to get runners on base isn’t going to remind anyone of a five-hour Red Sox-Yankees game anytime soon, but there’s no reason for them to be bereft of opportunities to score. It all depends on whether someone can pick the runners up.

POWER: Which brings us to the muscle side of the offensive equation. Alonso will have to be a factor here. There’s doubt if he’s a home-run hitter and Petco will drag him down further, but he can drive the ball to the alleys, which, if done consistently, can be just as valuable in a big ballpark like this. Carlos Quentin has left the South Side of Chicago and returned to his San Diego roots. The power has always been there for Quentin, hitting 20-plus home runs, even while losing time to injuries every year since 2008. His batting averages are notoriously poor, but his batting eye makes up for a lot of that. The questions are his durability and how many of those home run balls will turn into long outs at Petco.

STARTING PITCHING: Byrnes rolled the dice when he traded Latos to Cincinnati, but I think he got the better end of the deal. Latos had worked an abnormally high number of innings for a 24-year-old. While traditionalists would bemoan the notion that we should hold that against a young pitcher—and I would generally agree—we also can’t be blind to the reality that starting pitchers just aren’t conditioned to throw 200-plus innings like Latos did in 2010 when the Pads contended to the final day of the regular season.  The young starter fell off badly last year, and I think Byrnes was able to get top value on a declining asset when he picked up Alonso and starter Edinson Volquez.

Volquez is hoping the confines of Petco (sorry if I’m a drone on this park effect stuff, but it really can’t be overstated in San Diego) will rejuvenate a career that’s gone badly over the last three seasons. He’s got great stuff, but he hasn’t been healthy and has only made 41 starts from 2009-11. Those starts haven’t been particularly effective, although I think if the health comes around, the quality of the work will follow. Volquez will join a rotation that has Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard at the top. Each have ERAs in the high 3s, which is too high for a 1-2 combo in a pitchers’ park. They need to improve, or Byrnes and Black have to structure the rotation so they can be 3-4 starters rather than the aces. Cory Luebke did some nice work last year, mostly in relief, with a 3.29 ERA and he’ll get a chance to start. Dustin Moseley got 20 starts last year and responded with a 3.30 ERA, and young Anthony Bass has live stuff, and pitched very well in a brief major-league stint last year. Bass is currently projected to start the season in the bullpen, but the 24-year-old will likely get a chance to start sooner rather than later. Basically this is an army of #3 or #4 starters. It’s not a playoff-contending staff, but it could definitely be worse.

RELIEF PITCHING: Heath Bell may be gone, but Huston Street has been brought in. Street is a closer who’s high save totals and high ERAs make him better for Fantasy Leagues than in the real world, but if nothing else, Black has a guy who will get the last three outs more often than not. Luke Gregorson is a top setup man, and Black has good pieces to work with in young Ernesto Frieri  and veteran Micah Owings. The latter is a very intriguing possibility, because Owings went 8-0 last year with Arizona, time that included four starts. He can swing from the bullpen to the rotation and I can see him having a big year in either spot. A possible X-factor is hard-throwing Andrew Cashner, whose Cubs career was derailed by injury, and I also presume the bad luck that comes with being a Cub.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER: 73.5—I’m thinking that San Diego is a 74-win team which makes this line dead on. But TheSportsNotebook isn’t bailing in these spots, and I’m taking the Over. I like this team enough to think that it’s much easier for me to see them sneaking up to the .500 mark than falling below 70 wins.