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Rose Bowl Showdowns: Pac-12 Friday & Big Ten Saturday

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The battle for the Rose Bowl will be on Fox on Friday and Saturday nights, as we start with the Pac-12 Championship on Friday with UCLA-Stanford (8 PM ET) and then the following night in prime time with  Wisconsin-Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship (8 PM ET). The winners move forward to face each other in Pasadena on January 1. Let’s take a look at both games.

UCLA-Stanford: The first thing to note is that this game will be in Palo Alto, as the Pac-12 awards homefield advantage for its championship game. The most important football-related thing to note is that both teams are very similar. They run the ball, they have the tight end incorporated into their passing game and each has a freshman quarterback at the helm.

Stanford’s freshman signal-caller is Kevin Hogan and he’s only been the starter for four games, after Josh Nunes just didn’t work out as starter. Hogan has stepped in and completed 73 percent of his passes (a 20-point increase), and while this is not an offense that goes down the field a lot, the Cardinal is getting more bang for their buck with Hogan, as the completions are worth about a yard more on average.  Hogan has led the team to wins over Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA in succession, the first two coming from behind in the fourth quarter.

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UCLA’s quarterback is Brett Hundley and he’s been the starter all year, and with the exception of a four-interception train wreck against Cal, he’s been solid and productive. Any doubts that were held about his ability to handle himself in a big game were dispelled two weeks ago when he outplayed Matt Barkley in the Bruins’ victory over USC for the Pac-12 South title.

But while the freshman quarterbacks are a great story, it’s the running backs that are the meal ticket in these very physical offenses. Stephan Taylor for Stanford and Jonathan Franklin at UCLA have each had big years and they not only pile up rushing yards, but they create play-action possibilities to the tight end, something each coaching staff has used very well. Stanford tight end Zach Ertz is easily his team’s leading receiver and Joseph Fauria at tight end has had a good year catching the ball for UCLA.

Both teams have good resumes overall. Stanford has the incredible three-game sweep led by Hogan and also went to overtime before losing at Notre Dame—frankly, it’s quite logical to assume that had Hogan been the quarterback in South Bend, Stanford would have won the game and be playing for a national title spot on Friday night. The Cardinal also beat USC and Arizona, plus bowl-bound non-conference teams in San Jose State and Duke. The only other loss was a four-point defeat at Washington.

UCLA knocked off Nebraska in the non-conference schedule and has wins over Arizona State and USC. They also have an amazing 66-10 blasting of Arizona, showing how high their upside is. Of course their 43-17 loss to Cal also tells us their downside is much lower than Stanford’s.

These teams are similar in style, but in terms of actual results they are mirror images in one way. UCLA’s offense is the most productive in the Pac-12, while the defense is adequate ranking seventh. Stanford’s defense is the stingiest in the Pac-12, while the offense is adequate, ranking seventh. Those numbers are exclusive to conference games, so any non-league inequities won’t factor in. But we have to note that Hogan quarterbacked less than half his team’s league games, giving Stanford an edge.

I guess the question comes down to whether there is a rational reason to pick against Stanford. They’re the better team statistically, the resume is impressive, they’re playing well right now and they just finished blasting UCLA 35-17 on the Bruins’ home field last week.  Why should it be dramatically different in Palo Alto? There’s a reason Stanford is an 8 ½ point favorite.

In UCLA’s defense, I believe we can rule out last week’s game. The Bruins had homefield advantage for this game at stake, but that’s nothing compared to Stanford’s playing for survival. How much of the UCLA game plan did we really even see? As far as the rest of it—normally I don’t think there would be a good reason to pick an upset, but this situation of playing games back-to-back is an unusual circumstance.

How many more times can Stanford go to the well? There is the fourth straight do-or-die game against a high-quality opponent that they’ve played in as many weeks. That’s why I would happily grab UCLA with the points and give them a slight lean to pull off the upset and win the Pac-12 championship.

Wisconsin-Nebraska: The Big Ten title bout will be in Indianapolis and present a rematch of a September game where the Huskers rallied from 17 points down in Lincoln and beat the Badgers 30-27. It was the start of what’s been a tremendous ride in close games for Nebraska, and an agonizing one for Wisconsin. The Huskers have had narrow escapes over Northwestern, Michigan State and Penn State, while Wisconsin has lost overtime games to Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State, the last two coming over the past two weeks.

Both teams are going to run the ball, but Nebraska can do it with more versatility. Ameer Abduallah is a 1,000-yard back, and quarterback Taylor Martinez has over 800 yards himself. Wisconsin is much more straight ahead. Monte Ball hasn’t had the season a lot of us expected, but when you consider he’s gone over 1,500 yards while running behind an inexperienced line maybe our expectations, rather than Ball’s play, were the problem. James White is the backup, a shifty runner who presents a nice change of pace.

Wisconsin is playing with third-string quarterback Curt Phillips, whose numbers against Ohio State and Penn State haven’t dazzled, but he avoids mistakes and he’s been remarkably consistent on key throws late in the game. Both times he’s led a game-tying drive in the closing seconds, so even though Wisconsin wants to stay away from passing situations in general, they don’t have anything to fear if they need a fourth-quarter drive to win.

What makes this matchup most intriguing is that the Nebraska offense and the Wisconsin defense are the two units that have been most reliable all year, while the Cornhusker D and Badger offense have been up and down. The linesmakers have installed Nebraska as a three-point favorite.

I’m a Wisconsin fan who will be traveling to the game, so I won’t make a pick here. I can just tell you my conflicting emotions—on the one hand, I feel like this is a matchup where UW played well in a road environment and now it’s a neutral field, and that if the game is close, eventually one has to fall our way and against Nebraska.

On the other hand—I see versatility in Nebraska’s attack that’s going to be hard for Phillips to keep up with, as much I like the gritty sixth-year quarterback. And if the game is close—given Wisconsin coach Bret Bielama’s appalling game management skills, the team’s poor record in these games can’t be seen as about luck. I honestly don’t have a strong sense of things either way.

One thing I do have a strong sense of is that Wisconsin should not be playing in this game. Probations are not uncommon, but for a team that finished 7-5 and in third place in its division to be playing for a Rose Bowl spot simply because of the Ohio State and Penn State probations is a joke. A more reasonable solution would be to institute a rule saying that if a runner-up in one division is two games better than the opposite division winner, then a change can be made to the championship game.

This rule would have put Michigan (6-2) in the Big Ten title game over Wisconsin, who is 4-4 in league play. While protection against probation situations would be my prime purpose, it can apply in all circumstances. As it is, I’m looking forward to a fun time in Indy, hoping the Badgers win, but realizing that this would be a “championship” with a major asterisk by it.

Saturday’s Three Marquee Games For College Football Week 5

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The Big 12 promised a balanced and competitive year in the conference’s broad middle class, meaning there would be an exciting race for a possible at-large bid to the BCS and at the very least to get the conference’s spot in the Cotton Bowl. With Kansas State’s win over front-runner Oklahoma, we can add the race for the league championship itself into that mix, and every game among contenders in this league is a big deal. That’s why Texas-Oklahoma State is likely to be the most consequential game of Saturday and where TheSportsNotebook, after looking at the undercard games yesterday, will begin the Friday previews of the three marquee games of college football Week 5…

Texas-Oklahoma State: The Longhorns came into the season looking like they would play good defense, and the ultimate fate of the team being settled by quarterback play. So far, so good. David Ash has won the job over Case McCoy and while the schedule hasn’t been tough—Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole Miss—Ash is completing 76% of his passes, getting decent yardage from them and has yet to throw an interception. A two-pronged backfield of Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron is providing the ground support. There can be some mild concerns over the defense, giving the 31 points surrendered to Ole Miss and the 17 to what’s proven to be a lousy Wyoming team. However, closer examination shows that in both games, the majority of points came after the issue was well decided in the second half.

I’m giving the Texas D the benefit of the doubt early, but there’s no question Mike Gundy’s offense for Okie State is going to challenge them in a way they haven’t seen yet. The keys to the attack have been given to freshman quarterback J.W. Walsh, who played an efficient game against UL-Lafayette last week. Walsh has tremendous skill position talent around him. Joseph Randle is one of the Big 12’s best backs, and the receiving combo of Blake Jackson and Josh Stewart have taken up where departed first-round NFL draft pick Justin Blackmon left off. But the Cowboys have serious defensive problems, as shown when Arizona hung 59 points on the board in the second game of the season. Texas won’t put up those kinds of numbers, but you have to be concerned about Oklahoma State’s ability to get off the field and to force mistakes from a quarterback in Ash who’s yet to make any.

Even though the game is in Stillwater, Texas is installed as a 2.5 point favorite, with the Over/Under posted at 65, indicating the oddsmakers see a fast-break game played. I believe Oklahoma State can win at fast break football because of the skill talent, but if the Longhorn defense just plays disciplined, makes it tackles and doesn’t allow huge runs after the catch, it will allow them to control the tempo of the game. After this game, Texas enters a crucial home sequence against West Virginia and Oklahoma, and I’ll take them to set the tone with a close road win on Saturday night.

Tennessee-Georgia: It’s put up or shut up time for Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley. He’s in his third year and has already missed an opportunity to win a big SEC East game when his team lost at home to Florida. So the Vols have a must-win for their divisional hopes, while undefeated Georgia can still think bigger thoughts. Tennessee’s defense was pushed around by Florida, and that has to leave Georgia’s talented freshman running back Todd Gurley positively salivating. The Dawgs also have a quality change-of-pace back in Keith Marshall, and at the helm of the offense is Aaron Murray, who’s completed nearly 70 percent of his passes in two SEC games, along with a 5-1 TD/INT ratio. Put simply, there is nothing we’ve seen thus far that suggests Tennessee can contain this offense.

The Vols have the ability to make big plays, with Tyler Bray behind center and receiver Justin Hunter perhaps the most productive in the conference. But Florida was able to render Bray inefficient, as he completed just 22/44 passes and the Bulldogs’ defensive speed will enable them to bring blitz packages and rattle the Tennessee signal-caller. I don’t believe Tennessee’s running game is good enough to take the pressure off, nor do I even think they’ll get much of a chance to use it, given the likelihood that Georgia will score fairly easily. Short of a self-induced Bulldog implosion, I don’t see how they lose this game at home. If Bray and Hunter get hooked up, the game could be competitive and come in under the 14-point line the Dawgs are favored by, but at day’s end, Georgia will still be unbeaten and Dooley will still be on the hot seat.

Wisconsin-Nebraska: This is a hyped game, but I think we should tone down the hype for two key reasons. The first is that the teams are in opposite divisions of the Big Ten, so both will control their destiny in more consequential games ahead regardless. The other reason is that as a Wisconsin fan, I’m engaging in the political spinmeister’s tactic of lowering expectations when I sense the hammer about to fall.

While no team in the Big Ten has really looked good, Nebraska has never had a moment that made you wonder what the hell was going on. Their close loss at UCLA is respectable, and the Huskers hammered three softer opponents. They’ve got Ameer Abdullah and Rex Burkhead both set to produce in the running game and being able to move on the ground in the conventional way takes some pressure off dual threat quarterback Taylor Martinez. The problems they had at UCLA were defensive, not offensive, and while the Wisconsin defense is not the biggest problem the Badgers have, they’ve also shown vulnerability to offenses who pick up the pace and Martinez is capable of doing just that.

The Wisconsin offense remains a huge question mark, which we should note is an upgrade from earlier in September where there were no questions at all—the offense was just flat-out bad. But a quarterback change was made to freshman Joel Stave, who showed some life in a win over UTEP last week, aided considerably by the return of top receiver Jared Abberderis. But the offensive line is still not getting a consistent push and if this team needs to score 31 points or so to win, I don’t see how it happens without some major breaks. I’m headed to a party here in Wisconsin for the game, but let’s just say I don’t have any anticipation of driving home on a winner’s high.