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Western Conference playoff race

Surprises In The NBA West: Denver Nuggets & Utah Jazz

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Quick now, who’s the top challenger to Oklahoma City in the NBA’s Western Conference right now? It’s not San Antonio or the LA Lakers, who would be on the road for first-round playoff series if the season ended today. It’s not last year’s champion Dallas. It isn’t even this year’s media teddy bear, the LA Clippers. No, it’s the Denver Nuggets who are riding high with a 14-7 record and sitting at #2 in the West coming into today. Today TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look at the Nuggets, as well as another surprise team in the same part of the country, the Utah Jazz.

Denver (14-7, #2): The Nuggets are the best in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency (which basically points scored, tweaked for tempo), and they have a lot of players willing to let fly from three-point range. Forwards Danilio Gallinari and Al Harrington each step out to shoot the trey. But while both are good players overall, solid scorers and respectable rebounders, neither one is over 35 percent from trey-land. What this suggests is to me is that maybe reining them in could make the most efficient offense in the league even efficienter(yeah, I know that’s not a word, I just like the sound of it). At center is Nene Hilario, who does a solid job occupying the low post, although I’m not sure when he added a last name to his repertoire. He’d been just “Nene” for years and then I look him up on ESPN.com and I see Hilario there.

Denver’s deep at point guard, with both Ty Lawson and Andre Miller doing a solid job running the offense. Each is a double-digit scorer and each knows how to distribute. In today’s college feature on the West Coast Conference I joked that Gonzaga should acquire a veteran point guard to help their young backcourt—the 35-year old Miller fits the bill perfectly, and he’s a perfect foil for Lawson on this team. The two-guard spot is a problem where Aran Afflalo has potential, but only averages 11 ppg. Rudy Fernandez is similarly average.

Overall, I like this team, with the exception of the fact that there’s no good three-point shooter and they seem to try and force it. I question if they can maintain their offensive efficiency that way, and with the defense being in the middle of the league, that would mean a drop in the standings is coming. I don’t see Denver is able to mount a serious push to the NBA Finals, but in a tough Western Conference they’re capable of a top four finish and winning a playoff series, which is nothing to sneer at. It’s Denver who can be doing the sneering in the direction of the Big Apple as they’ve come out of the whole Carmelo Anthony deal in a lot better shape than the Knicks right now.

Utah (12-7, 5th): Not much was expected of the Jazz this season and a 1-3 start did little to inspire anyone. But Utah has quietly put together an 11-4 run that’s marked by consistency. If you go through their schedule, there’s a not a lot of standout wins, save a victory over Miami, nor much in the way of unexpected losses. For a  team with no superstars, that’s the way it has to be and that’s the way Utah has done it.

Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson are  as close as there is to a stars,  with Millsap averaging 17 points/9 rebounds per game and Jefferson posting an 18/9 line. Derrick Favors does a decent job spelling both down low, grabbing six boards a night. What Utah doesn’t have is steady work on the perimeter. Point guard Devin Harris is a former Wisconsin star and thus worthy of this writer’s pre-eminent respect, but the numbers don’t lie—the seven-year vet should not be starting for a playoff contending team. Gordon Hayward was the star of the Butler team that captured the imagination of America in the 2010 run to the NCAA final. As a 6’8” guard he’s got the natural build and maybe he’ll get better, but right now he’d be better situated as a role player. Raja Bell at the two-guard and Josh Howard at small forward are similarly mediocre.

The team stats back up Utah’s vanilla flavor. They’re a middling team on offense and below average both defensively in rebounding. Those overall numbers don’t  add up to 12-7, meaning that if you want to prevent things from equaling out, you need individual players you can identify as likely to improve and lift those team numbers. Of the names I put out there, who’s capable of giving more? Right now Utah is ahead of the Lakers and Spurs in the West, and it’s impossible to imagine that’s going to hold out much longer. That would drop them into a four-team race with Memphis, Portland and Houston for one of the last two playoff spots. Not to throw a wet blanket on Salt Lake City, but I just can’t see Utah making it.

 

The Battle For Los Angeles Basketball: Clippers Or Lakers?

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When the Los Angeles Clippers traded for Chris Paul just before the season began it was supposed to be a sign that a new rivalry was coming to Hollywood and the Clips could now stand toe-to-toe with their crosstown rivals at the Staples Center. When this sort of hype happens it usually results in the veteran team—the Lakers in this case—taking offense and seizing the opportunity to crush any rebellion from the upstarts before it even gets serious.

But the NBA rivalry in Los Angeles is looking like the real thing. The teams are within one game in the Pacific Division standings. It was the Clippers who won the first head-to-head meeting. So as they get set to tip tonight (10:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), let’s look at where each stands, what they’re doing well and what’s not working out.

Alongside each team name is their record and rank within the Western Conference as a whole. The top eight in each conference make the playoffs.

LA Lakers (10-8, 10th): What’s this, the Lakers wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today? That’s right. In the tough Western Conference, there’s not much room for error. I stands in sharp contrast to the East where the sub-.500 Celtics would be in. But while a competitive conference is the main cause, we can’t over LA’s obvious flaws. The biggest, and one which was talked about in the short preseason after the lockout, was that the team only has three worthwhile players, in Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. I suppose as trios go, that’s not bad, and Kobe’s averaging 30 a night while the two seven-foot post players combine for 32 points/25 rebounds. The Lakers come into every game knowing they can beat you inside and out, and that at crunch-time Kobe will smell blood.

Furthermore, head coach Mike Brown can draw some comfort from the fact that the team ranks 7th in the NBA for offensive efficiency and 6th for defensive efficiency. How do those rankings in the entire league equate out to a 10th-place spot just in the conference? They don’t, and since we’ve only played 18 games in a 66-game schedule, the smartest guess is to think that it will even out with time.

Now on to the problems. Derek Fischer, the veteran guard whose hit so many big shots for this franchise in their title runs is so clearly on his last legs, that we shouldn’t even say “last legs” anymore. He’s really worn them down to his last ankles. He was already getting significant chunks of playing time, and with Steve Blake going out with bad ribs, Fischer’s minutes will only increase. I suppose if nothing else, the drop-off won’t be that dramatic, because Blake wasn’t doing anything either. Matt Barnes hasn’t been able to step up at forward and the Man Formerly Named Ron Artest, now humbly known as “Metta World Peace” has apparently brought his newfound pacifisms to the basketball court, where he’s done nothing to demonstrate himself as an asset.

Los Angeles does not matchup up well against good teams, they lack depth and Phil Jackson’s soothing sideline demeanor is no longer there. I have nothing against Brown, who did a good job in Cleveland, but he’s in a position here where all he can do is fail. The Lakers have a tough road ahead just to reach the playoffs.

LA Clippers (9-5, 3rd): The new kids on the Hollywood block are still growing as a team, but head coach Vinny Del Negro has to be pleased with the progress. They’ve gotten quality wins against not only the Lakers, but also Miami, Dallas and Portland. None of the losses are head-scratchers, and consistency is one of the things you have to watch for with a team like this that isn’t used to winning.

Chris Paul at the point and Blake Griffin at forward are the ones who make the highlight reels and that’s entirely fair. They are head and shoulders above the rest of the team and give the Clips an inside-out combo that few can match. While its Paul’s passing and running of an offense that may land him in the Hall of Fame one day, don’t overlook the fact he can shoot, and that includes the three-ball. Mo Williams is deadly from behind the arc was well, and if defenses extend too far, Chauncey Billups can still attack the basket at age 35. Billups, a veteran of Detroit’s 2004 championship team, gives this group badly needed championship experience and he’s a good complementary piece in the offense.

Caron Butler is an X-factor for this team. He’s capable of the big scoring night if his team’s Big Two are struggling, but at the same time his shooting can be erratic. While 43 percent from the floor isn’t bad, Butler isn’t a three-point threat and he only averages four rebounds a game. I would like to see him kick up his game just a little bit before considering the Clips a serious threat to really separate themselves from their crosstown rivals in the Pacific Division. The defensive presence of DeAndre Jordan gives Del Negro something his counterpart Brown lacks, and that’s a role player who can block shots and alter an offense.

As far as tonight’s game goes, Paul is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he’s listed as probable, you never know how NBA coaches are going to respond, with the schedule being played at a much more intense pace this year after the lockout. For the long haul, I like what the Clippers have done and think that the Lakers will need to make some kind of major trade if they don’t want to lose control of their own town.

Vancouver & San Jose Chase Rematch In NHL’s Western Conference

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A year ago, San Jose and Vancouver met in the Western Conference Finals, with the Canucks winning in six games.  Both teams are leading their divisions again this year as the NHL approaches All-Star Weekend.

The Canucks, hungry to get back to the Finals after losing in seven games to Boston, are atop the Northwest and their 62 points would get them the #2 seed. The Sharks are at 58 points and would currently slot # in the playoff bracket. One thing to keep in mind is that both Chicago and St. Louis have more points than either Vancouver or San Jose, so if either of the latter loses the division lead and automatic seeding in the top three, it’s a drop down to the bottom of the bracket. This is evidenced by the fact that Los Angeles moved into tie for first last night with San Jose in the Pacific Division, at 58 points apiece, but the Kings are seeded seventh.

Can San Jose and Vancouver overcome the Central Division’s power trio of current #1 seed Detroit, Chicago and St. Louis? Let’s take a closer look at last year’s conference finalists…

Vancouver: The Canucks remain an overall sound hockey team, with no obvious stand-out strengths and with the exception of maybe allowing a few too many shots, no obvious weaknesses. Vancouver ranks near the top of the league in goals scored and goals allowed. Their power play is the NHL’s best and they’re close to the top in the penalty kill.

The Sedin brothers, Daniel and Henrik, remain the core of this team. Henrik is at center, while Daniel operates on the right wing, and both are adept at scoring and passing. You also can’t overlook Alex Burrows, who’s a Top 30 scorer himself—that benchmark being chosen because it suggests that if talent were equally distributed, Burrows is good enough to be the lead scorer for somebody.

This core group is enough to get Vancouver where they are right now and that’s contention. They had problems defensively in last year’s Cup Finals though. Roberto Luongo can go back-and-forth from being a championship-caliber goalie to being a train wreck—against Boston last June he managed to do both in the course of a seven-game series. Backup Cory Schneider is capable, but any team with designs on the Cup clearly wants one guy they can count on for a shutdown performance in the postseason. And the fact the Canucks rank 16th in shots allowed suggests that the work of the defensemen, led by Alexander Edler and Kevin Biecksa, needs to be called into question.

My impression of Vancouver is that this is a fundamentally good team that can win a title if all breaks right, but is probably more likely to lose in the playoffs. Although Canucks fans, take heart—that’s the same description you can apply to the New England Patriots and they’ve made their own version of the Finals.

San Jose: The Sharks’ strength is their defense, and in particular the work of defenseman Marc-Eduoard Vlasic and Dan Boyle, who lead up a group that provides good depth and does solid work in preventing shots on goal. San Jose gets respectable goaltending work from Antti Niemi. While in an ideal world you might like to see a stronger goalie, Niemi is good enough to go deep into the playoffs with.

Where you have to be concerned with San Jose is on offense, and in particular, how well they’re working together to get shots. A strange statistical anomaly has the Sharks as producing the most shots in the league, but only ranking 13th in goals scored. Huh? Maybe in one game, or even a series, you can write that off to a hot goalie. When it’s the cumulative result against everyone after more than half a season. It suggests something isn’t right.

I don’t get to see the Sharks play, so I can’t answer the question definitively. But looking at the numbers makes me wonder if these are just shots wildly launched at the goalie that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd, but have little chance of finding the net. Are there rebounders and screeners in position? I don’t know. What we do know is that the talent level on San Jose’s frontline is down, as center Joe Thornton is now 32 years old and there’s no other reliable scorers out there.

You can never say never about anyone in the NHL playoffs, least of all a pair of division leaders. But San Jose definitely doesn’t like a championship team this year, and Vancouver appears maybe a notch off the pace.