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West Coast Conference Basketball: Gonzaga Leads Up An Exciting Stretch Run

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West Coast Conference basketball has become a regular in the NCAA Tournament scene every March. Gonzaga is still one of the country’s most popular midmajor teams. BYU has a recent run to the Sweet 16 anchored by Jimmer Fredette back in 2011, and St. Mary’s did the same in 2010. All three schools are regulars in the Dance. This year could be different on two levels—on the one hand, maybe the WCC will finally break through and end up with a team in the Final Four. On the other hand, maybe it will be a one-bid league on Selection Sunday.

Let’s start with Gonzaga who’s the cream of the crop in the conference. The Zags are 21-2 overall, and projected as a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. The team is built around two high-quality frontcourt players. Senior forward Elias Harris averages 15 points/7 rebounds per game, and the big seven-footer, junior center Kelly Olynyk is posting an 18/7.

What makes Gonzaga even more interesting is that their two sophomore guards are capable of doing more. Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell each started last year as freshmen. They’re only combining for 20 ppg this year, which isn’t bad, but second-year starters at a program like this should be capable of more. Perhaps if necessary, they can deliver. Pangos is the team’s primary three-point shooter and hits a red-hot 44 percent from behind the arc. If this team is going to make a big run in March, they’ll likely a need a lights-out game from three-point range somewhere along the way.

I’m still surprised Lunardi has Gonzaga projected this high on the seedings, because they really haven’t beaten anyone. They lost at home to Illinois in December, something we should note took place when the Illini were playing much better than is the case today. And the Zags dropped a one-point nailbiter at Butler. Even within the conference, their wins over St. Mary’s and BYU have come at home.

Talent-wise, I think Gonzaga can finally have a breakthrough March. Olynyk gives them a player a lot of teams will find it tough to match up, Pangos can light it up from downtown and Harris is just a solid all-around player. Bell has an upside that could make him an X-factor in any game. All the pieces are there. But when it comes to evaluating their resume right now, where are the marquee wins? We’re still taking Gonzaga’s ability to beat really good teams on faith.

At least we know the Zags are going to be in the NCAA Tournament and that’s more than can be said for St. Mary’s and BYU. Each team is having a good year, with the Gaels at 19-4 and the Cougars on 18-6, but that’s good for the NCAA bubble. Lunardi has them splitting down the middle, with St. Mary’s leaning in and BYU leaning out. So even if the bracket were unveiled today, the West Coast Conference might range anywhere from 1-3 teams.

The resumes of the two challengers are completely opposite. St. Mary’s has the better overall record and also got a one-point win at BYU. They’ve also lost games to Pacific, Northern Iowa and Georgia Tech, all of which count as black marks when the committee evaluateseverything. From a personnel standpoint, they’re a deep team, with seven players getting significant minutes, but a lot of it is just average interchangeable parts. If the Gaels play well down the stretch or in the NCAAs, it starts with senior guard Matthew Dellavedova and extends to junior guard Stephen Holt. The pair averages 17 ppg and 12 ppg respectively.

None of BYU’s losses are bad—they lost to their two primary conference rivals, along with Florida State, Notre Dame, Iowa State and Baylor. Their problem is going to be that the Selection Committee has shown they want more than quality losses, they want you to see you beat some people. BYU hasn’t done that and time is running out. A road game at St. Mary’s on February 21 is must-win and their home game with Gonzaga a week later might be as well.

St. Mary’s also needs to play like their back is to the wall. If they lose one more game in the regular season, and then another in the conference tournament (we may as well assume the latter, since if they win the tournament they go  automatically and this whole discussion is moot), you’re talking about a six-loss team with no notable wins. It would be a close, but my guess would be the Gaels get left home in that scenario. The remaining schedule isn’t easy—St. Mary’s plays two more games against Santa Clara, who at 17-7 is the one dark horse in a league owned by the Big Three. Then they’ve got Gonzaga and BYU at home.

The West Coast Conference regular season ends early, on March 2, so the tournament can get some national television exposure before the power leagues take over the airwaves. It’s going to be an exciting few weeks for some teams that have developed a nice basketball pedigree, and still have a lot on the line.

St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU Battle In The West Coast Conference

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The West Coast Conference is the leading power among the midmajors this year (for the record, I include the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 among the “majors”), with the addition of BYU giving them three solid contenders to not just make the NCAA Tournament, but make some noise in March. St. Mary’s, Gonzaga and BYU are looking to close the season strong and the push starts tomorrow night when the Zags match up with BYU (11 PM ET, ESPN2). Today, TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the WCC’s Big Three. The NCAA Tournament seed projections come from ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi and are based on whether the season ended today.

St. Mary’s (21-2, 10-0, projected #5 seed): The Gaels’ have the dazzling record, but the non-conference resume is pretty thin. One of the losses was an inexplicable defeat to Denver early on, and they also lost to Baylor, a rematch of a Sweet 16 game from the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Actually that’s not a “thin” resume, it’s a non-existent one. What St. Mary’s does have is the fact they’re 3-0 against their two WCC rivals, with an impressive road win at BYU last Saturday night completing a season sweep.

St. Mary’s is a finesse team that relies on three-point shooting. Rob Jones and Clint Steindl are the only forwards who get regular playing time and neither goes taller than 6’7”. Jones plays bigger than his height and posts 14 points/11 rebounds a night, while Steindl is more effective when coming outside to hit the trey. The backcourt is led by the outstanding Matthew Dellavedova, who scores, hits from outside and distributes. Stephen Holts is an able running mate who can do all of the above almost as well.

I respect the Gaels—look as an Irish Catholic I’m going to respect any school named the St. Mary’s Gaels. But I don’t look at them and see a team really ready to shake up the college basketball establishment. I question if Jones can keep “playing big” when he goes against better teams—for that matter, when he goes to Gonzaga on February 9. I question whether Dellavedova can get his shots against faster defenses. Above all, I question how far this team might slip in the eyes of the Selection Committee if they lose a few games. On the surface, Gonzaga and a February 18 trip to Murray State would be the only problem areas, but if they somehow dropped a couple more, I could see a free-fall to the NCAA bubble happening.

Gonzaga (17-3, 71, projected #6 seed): Other than the road loss to St. Mary’s, the Zags have only lost to Illinois and Michigan State. Meanwhile they’ve beaten Notre Dame, Arizona, Butler and Xavier, giving them the overall resume St. Mary’s lacks. They also have the post players that their rival lacks. Robert Sacre occupies the middle and the 7-footer averages a 12/7 every night. Elias Harris is at power forward, with a 14/8 line, mixed with a nice shooting touch when he comes out for the three-ball.

What Gonzaga doesn’t have is backcourt experience. Kevin Pangos has gotten the job done at the point and is a respectable shooter, but he’s only a freshman. He’s joined by another freshman Gary Bell. Along with Sacre and Harris these are the Core Four for this team. The fifth spot is shared by 6’9” Sam Dower and 5’11: David Stockton, giving Mark Few flexibility when it comes to what type of lineup he wants to put on the floor. Stockton can hit the trey, but he’s only a sophomore, adding to the backcourt inexperience problem. If this were the NBA, we’d be talking about Gonzaga adding a veteran point guard at the trade deadline—is Sam Cassell still available? Another potential problem with this group of guards is that none are taller than 6’1”, giving up a few inches to Dellanova and Holt against St. Mary’s, and also creating potential matchup problems against BYU, as we’ll see next.

BYU (18-6, 6-3, misses field by 1-4 spots): The Cougars clearly could have used that home win over St. Mary’s last Saturday night and they really need the game against Gonzaga tomorrow night. The only wins of note are Oregon and Virginia Tech, while the losses include Loyola Marymount and Utah State. BYU’s forwards are talented, with Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies combining to average a 33/13 line each night. The Coogs also have a freshman point guard in Matt Carlino, but they do have more experience on the wings, with 6’6” Brock Zykstra and 6’5” Charles Abouo. Both have good range in shooting the three, and both make a contribution in going to the boards.

With Hartsock, Davies, Zykstra and Abouo, the Cougars can play the wings as well as anyone, but they combine St. Mary’s problem of no true center and Gonzaga’s problem of inexperience at the point. They still have both games with Gonzaga ahead of them, starting tomorrow night and short of winning the conference tournament, those games are their best chances to play their way in.