Menu

Washington Nationals playoff chances

Can The Nats Get Control Of The NL East?

Earlier this week, TheSportsNotebook took a look at surprising NL East contenders in the Braves and the Phillies. A key premise of any long-term race in this division is that the Washington Nationals, the odds-on favorite and winner of four of the last six NL East crowns, won’t kick into high gear and leave everyone in the dust. So with that in mind, let’s wrap up the week with a closer look at the Nats…

GREAT 1980s SPORTS MOMENTS
Start reading today. 

Injuries, most notably to second baseman Daniel Murphy, have defined this early part of the Washington season. Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters and Ryan Zimmerman are also on the disabled list, as are four pitchers, including veteran reliever Ryan Madson. The injuries are a logical explanation for why the most talented team in the division is puttering along at 26-22, three games off the pace heading into the holiday weekend. But they aren’t the biggest long-term concern.

Washington is still getting a vintage season from Bryce Harper (.387 on-base percentage/.537 slugging percentage). They’re top four starting pitchers—Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez are humming along. Scherzer, at 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA is a serious contender to win his fourth Cy Young Award and the rotation as a whole ranks second in the National League in ERA. The back end of the bullpen is in good hands, with closer Sean Doolittle closing 9/10 chances with 2.18 ERA.

There are a couple of everyday players who could hit better, Anthony Rendon at third base (.339/.422) and especially centerfielder Michael Taylor (.249/.311). But at the same time, is new left fielder Matt Adams going to continue his pace of slugging .618? And how long for the big and burly Adams becomes a serious defensive liabiity in the outfield?

Hence, there’s no reason to assume a normal course of action—players returning to career norm performance over the course of the summer is going to substantially move the needle for the Nats. That brings us to this team’s biggest problem and that’s relief pitching.

The bullpen has been the Nationals’ bugaboo for this entire seven-year period of their run. We can take it back to 2012 when they blew a 6-0 lead to St. Louis in the decisive game of the Division Series. The ensuing years has seen the pen be a nagging issue during Washington’s regular seasons and a debilitating one in the playoffs.

Washington’s bullpen currently ranks ninth in the National League in ERA and continues to be the weak spot of the entire team. Madson is expected back in June. He’s pitched very well the last three years and can combine with Doolittle to at least stabilize the end of games.

The return of Madson makes Washington marginally better than the rest of the improved NL East. But if you’re a top-heavy 1-2 betting favorite in a four-team race, “marginally better” isn’t what you’re after. You’re looking to blow the thing open. And if the Nationals depth doesn’t improve, that won’t happen.

This is where Washington is going to miss having Dusty Baker at the helm. Say what you will about his poor playoff record, the man knew how to manage regular seasons and nowhere is that more obvious on the field than piecing together a bullpen. Maybe new skipper Dave Martinez can do it, but he’s very much an unproven commodity in a situation that’s World Series-or-bust.

MLB Coverage: Can Arizona Or Washington Make The NL Playoffs?

, , , , ,

The consensus in the National League playoff race is that we know the five teams that will qualify, and all that’s left is for the three NL Central contenders (St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati) to sort out who plays in the wild-card game and who advances directly to the Division Series.

I won’t dispute that, but let’s at least keep an eye on the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks, who still have a puncher’s chance of running down a wild-card spot. The purpose of today’s MLB coverage will be to assess what kind of chance—if any—we should give the Nats or D-Backs of making it to October.


Let’s begin by noting that Cincinnati is the only team either one has a reasonable chance to catch. It’s the Reds who hold down the last wild-card sport, with Arizona six games back and Washington 6 ½ off the pace. But not only are the Reds the closest team to the playoff border, they also have the most potential vulnerability, thanks to injuries in the pitching staff. Any comeback effort at this stage of the game is going to require a vulnerable leader and Cincinnati might be that.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Arizona and Washington have schedules that make the first part of September opportunity time. Here’s who they play…

*The Diamondbacks have seven games against now-lowly San Francisco and three more against last-place Toronto. September 8 is a good benchmark point for Arizona—that’s when they begin a stretch of playing the Los Angeles Dodgers seven times in eleven games and if Arizona hasn’t made a real cut into their six-game deficit by the 8th, it’s probably not going to happen.

*The Nationals have an even juicier schedule, living on a diet of Mets, Phillies and Marlins between now and September 15. Here again, if that lead isn’t narrowed to 2-3 games by mid-September, you have to assume Washington missed their chance.

In either case, a significant move by either contender with two weeks still to play would up the pressure on the Reds, a team dealing with the burden of losing three straight playoff games at home to San Francisco last year, any one of which closes out a Division Series win.

PITCHING CAUSING THE PROBLEMS

Both teams have been let down by their pitching, especially after the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks rank 10th in National League ERA over that timeframe, and have only closed 5 of 12 save chances. Heath Bell finally lost the closers’ job, and Brandon McCarthy has been a big disappointment, with a 5.13 ERA since the break.


Arizona also seen ace Trevor Cahill spend a sizeable chunk of time on the DL, and they weren’t able to keep the race close until he got back, something I was counting on as one who had picked them to win the NL West. Whatever happens in September, the D-Backs aren’t catching the Dodgers, where there’s a 9 ½ game gap.

Finally, Patrick Corbin, the rookie who made a run into Cy Young contention in the first half, has cooled off since. Corbin still has a respectable 3.99 ERA in seven post-All Star starts. It speaks well to his ability to continue as a quality starting pitcher in the major leagues. But it was a dropoff from where he was, and no one else on the rotation was able to pick up the slack.

The Diamondbacks struggling with pitching is disappointing, but not surprising. Washington, on the other hand…this is a big shock. Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, after brilliant years in 2012, have been poor this season. Just since the break, Gonzalez’s ERA is 4.98, with Zimmerman at 5.87. Washington’s staff ERA is a stunning 12th in the National League in the second half, and they’ve coughed up a third of their save chances.

Each pitching staff has wasted some strong showings from their offense. Arizona, led by MVP-worthy first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, is third in the league in runs scored since the break, and the NL’s best in on-base percentage. Washington, since getting Bryce Harper, saw its own offense take off, and they rank 4th in the post-ASB period with the NL’s best slugging percentage.

A CLOSING PUSH?

If Arizona can make first cut into the deficit by September 8, and then hold serve through September 19, when their stretch against Los Angeles concludes, the D-Backs will have a shot. They get seven games in a row against the Rockies and Padres.

Washington has a tougher row to hoe after September 15. While a series with Miami provides some respite, the Braves and Cardinals are also on the docket. Ideally, you’d like to see them shave five games off the lead by 9/15 and then grind it out the rest of the way. A tall order to be sure, but the very premise of this entire conversation is a tall order for either team.

And if both the Diamondbacks and Nationals make a run at it, and go into the final weekend with a chance? Then they close the season with a head-to-head series in the desert, one of them guaranteed to pressure Cincinnati each day. It would make for an exciting finish, but there’s no time left to lose for the NL’s last two hopes of playoff race excitement. 

MLB Coverage: What’s The Problem In Washington?

, , , , ,

The struggles of the Washington Nationals has been one of baseball’s big surprises in the first half of the 2013 MLB season. The Nats are a .500 club, with a 33-33 record and 5 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Washington is 6 ½ out of a wild-card slot.

There’s plenty of time to catch up, but those deficits underscore the importance of winning games quickly. What’s the problem in Washington? That’s what the National League installment of today’s MLB coverage will focus on.

THE ROTATION ROUNDS INTO FORM

Starting pitching is what this team is built on, and while there have been some rocky moments, and some individual struggles, the collective efforts of the rotation have continued to bear good fruit. Washington is third in the National League in starters’ ERA.

While Gio Gonzalez struggled for several weeks to start the season, Jordan Zimmerman picked up the pace and has pitched at a Cy Young level. Stephen Strasburg has been steady, with a 2.92 ERA and his recent trip to the disabled list proved to be minor, and Strasburg is expected to return tomorrow. Ross Detwiler is also back from the DL, after posting a 3.02 ERA in nine starts. Furthermore, Gonzalez appears to be locked in and back to the form that made him a 21-game winner last year. He’s been sharp his last three starts, and four of the last five.


It’s the bullpen that was reliable last year, but has been less so this year. There’s no problem at closer, where Rafael Soriano has closed 17 of 20 chances with a 2.67 ERA. The problem has been in front of Soriano. Drew Storen has struggled mightily after losing the ninth-inning gig, and has a 4.73 ERA. While Tyler Clippard and Craig Stammen have been competent, there’s a lack of depth here. The unit as a whole is eighth in the NL in ERA.

If Washington had a great offensive team, they could get by with the starting pitching, Soriano and some thin middle relief. But they don’t have a great offense. Quite the opposite.

NO OBVIOUS SOLUTIONS ON OFFENSE

No one thought the Nationals were going to win games by mashing out runs, but it was surely reasonable to expect them to do better than 14th in the National League wasn’t it? The only NL team that’s been worse is Miami.  There are no discernible strengths to build on—the Nats are bad at getting on base, and bad at hitting for power. In both cases, they’re also near the bottom of the league.

Bryce Harper is not enough, even when he comes back from his knee injury (he starts rehab next week). And when you look at the veterans it’s fair to ask where the help is coming from.

Adam LaRoche has been decent, hitting 10 home runs. You could say he was much better last year, but it was 2012 that was more the aberration than this season. LaRoche is a moderately decent offensive first baseman and that’s exactly what he’s playing like. Ryan Zimmerman is respectable at third, with a stat line of .349 on-base percentage/.454 slugging. Could he do better? Sure, but there’s no basis to assume it.

Ian Desmond has popped eight home runs in a nice show of power. Denard Span has been a disappointment in centerfield—at least disappointing to the Nats’ front office. A lot of us didn’t expect a lot from Span based on his years in Minnesota and “not a lot” is exactly what Washington is getting.

But the biggest blow is the continued failure of Jayson Werth, with his appalling .297/.378 stat line. Two years ago he was a disaster and the excuse was that he felt the pressure of the $126 million contract. Last year he was hurt. Now this year he’s been hurt some more, and been lousy when he’s in the lineup. I’ve given Werth benefit of the doubt in the past, but I’m frankly past that point now. I think we have to assume he’s just not that good and this is wasted money Washington paid out on a seven-year deal.

These are the veterans, and in some form or another this is probably what Washington fans can expect. Sure, one player might go above his expectations, but another player can just as likely go below. The Nats need someone to shake things up and that’s where the call-up of second baseman Anthony Rendon is a heartening development.

Washington’s regular second baseman Danny Espinosa got hurt. Given he wasn’t all that productive to begin with, the injury was what manager Davey Johnson needed to call up Rendon, who has promptly hit .308 in his first 52 at-bats with an on-base percentage of .390. The word on the street is that when Espinosa is healthy, he’ll be shipped to the minors.

Rendon gives this offense hope, but when you’re entire hope for improvement rests on a kid for whom it took an injury to persuade the organization to give him a shot, what does that say about the overall offensive prospects?

THE ROAD AHEAD

It might be deeply skeptical of the offense, but I do expect the pitching to continue to get better, as Gonzalez returns to form and Strasburg and Detwiler come off the disabled list. The bullpen has an interesting prospect in Fernando Abad, who’s only pitched nine innings, but looked very good in doing so. In short, we can expect Washington to be what we expected—some great pitching, top-to-bottom and just enough offense.

I think that’s going to be enough to justify sticking with my pick of the Nats to win the NL East. I respect Atlanta, but don’t believe they have the starting pitching depth to hold off a sustained drive by Washington. And a sustained drive is what’s going to come.

AROUND THE NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST: To contradict what I just wrote, Atlanta doesn’t look far from getting Brandon Beachy back in the rotation. While Beachy will help, I still think the Braves need a true ace to hold off the Nats.

NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh is rolling along at 40-27, virtually neck-and-neck with Cincinnati for second place, and three games back of St. Louis for first. The Pirates need to get Jeanmar Gomez and James McDonald back from their rehab assignments, and they have to hope Wandy Rodriguez’ forearm stiffness that put him on the DL proves to be minor. With this many pitchers out, it’s a potential danger time for Pittsburgh.

NL WEST: San Diego has quietly moved to within four games of the lead, in what has become a packed four-team race. The Padres have gotten surprising offense, ranking seventh in the National League in scoring runs. But the recent injury to second baseman Jedd Gyorko was a blow, and unless Bud Black can find some pitching, this run won’t last.

 

MLB Coverage: Beltway Baseball Looks To Build On Revival

, , , , ,

Baseball on the Beltway got a big lift in 2012, as both the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs and stretched their Division Series showdowns to the full five games. The Orioles’ arrival was more surprising than the Nationals, but with giants in each dugouts—Davey Johnson in D.C. and Buck Showalter in Charm City—you had to know each organization would get it done eventually. Now they have the tougher task though, which is to make the second act of success. Let’s take a look at both the O’s and Nats as they prep for 2013…

Washington: Most people are expecting Washington to repeat in the NL East and it’s because of the quality of their pitching. Stephen Strasburg will get a full season this year, with the foolish shutdown controversy now behind him.  Add Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman and they anchor Washington’s rotation with three legitimate Cy Young candidates. In addition, Washington acquired Dan Haren from the Angels to replace the departed Edwin Jackson. Haren’s ERA jumped to 4.33 a year ago, but coming to the DH-less National League will help that and he’s made at least thirty starts every year since 2005. Then you throw in Ross Detwiler, the 27-year-old who would be the prize young arm with most teams, but is almost an afterthought in Washington. The bullpen now has Rafael Soriano to close and the setup team is deep and good. This is a staff with no weaknesses.

It’s scoring enough runs to keep the Nats competitive in a division that includes Atlanta and Philadelphia that will be their defining issue. Ian Desmond popped 25 home runs, as the young shortstop showed why Washington was uninterested in Jose Reyes on last year’s free agent market. Bryce Harper posted a .340 on-base percentage and .577 slugging in a dynamic rookie year, while Ryan Zimmerman has established himself as a steady offensive force at third base. The question marks are what the Nats will get from Jayson Werth, whether Adam LaRoche can repeat his .343/.510 season, and whether Denard Span is as good as a lot of people seem to think. I’m optimistic on Werth, but less so on LaRoche and Span. But any kind of split decision among these three hitters, combined with the offensive core, and then added to the pitching staff will put Washington in the playoffs again.

Baltimore: The Orioles’ pitching isn’t as heralded or even as good as their Beltway cousins, but Baltimore does have an underrated rotation. Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman came on in the second half of last year and will be in the rotation from the outset this time around. Asian import Wei-Yin Chen established himself as a consistent major league starter, and Jason Hammel had a good first year in Baltimore. Even if Hammel slips from his 3.43 ERA of last year, or can’t overcome the injuries that bedeviled him down the stretch last year, the advantage of having Gonzalez and Tillman rolling from Day One will make up for that.

The bullpen was one of the best, if not the best, in the game last year and even if Jim Johnson doesn’t repeat his 51-save performance, he’s been a very good reliever going back to 2008 and isn’t going anywhere. Pedro Strop is a talented young setup man, and then you mix in Darren O’Day and Brian Matusz, giving Showalter plenty of options from the sixth inning on.

Just as is the case in D.C., the issue will be offense. The Orioles have young stud third baseman Manny Machado from the outset, and the 21-year-old slugged .445 after being called up in the second half of last season. Nick Markakis is healthy again, as is Nolan Remold in the outfield. Adam Jones has established himself as a bona fide star in centerfield, though I’d like to see him improve that .334 on-base percentage.

Our big question marks here will be the health of Brian Roberts—he’s fine right now, but after back problems and concussions for the past couple years, how long will he hold up? J.J. Hardy has hit 52 home runs over the last two years, but his batting average and ability to draw walks is a significant liability. Nate McLouth resurrected his flailing career here after a midseason trade last year. Can he regain his 2009 form for a full year? And can Chris Davis hit 33 home runs again, and will Matt Wieters elevate his production beyond the .329/.435 stat line he put up last year?

I’m mostly pessimistic on a lot of these questions, although I’d give McLouth and Wieters the best chance of answering affirmatively.

HOW MANY WILL THEY WIN?

As we’ve done throughout the spring MLB coverage here at TheSportsNotebook, let’s answer the question of how Baltimore and Washington will fare against their Over/Under win props posted in Las Vegas. The Orioles are listed at 79, with the Nationals at 92.5.

The Baltimore number is crazy. I understand that the raw number of games they won in extra innings and by one run make them every sabermetrician’s candidate for a big drop-off. But do you mean to tell me that I can take a team that won 93 games last year, take the Over and still win the bet if they come in under .500 at 80-82. Yeah, I’ll take my chances. Furthermore, while there is definite truth to the notion that winning close games is the toughest way to win consistently, it’s easily overlooked that Baltimore became a much stronger team in the second half of last year, thanks to the emergence of the starting pitchers discussed above. To the extent they caught a luck wave, it was in the first half of the season. Finally, if you have a team with a deep bullpen and a good manager, is it really just a statistical fluke that they win a disproportionate number of close games? I’m not saying the Orioles are going to win 93 again, but I certainly think they’ll be the mid-80s and in the playoff conversation.

Washington is a tougher pick. I hate picking Overs on these nigh numbers, but I think I’m going to make an exception here. The Nats’ pitching is so good that I can’t see them winning fewer than 90 games, and I could easily envision them going into the 98-100 range. That gives me more room on the Over side of the number, so that’s where I’m going.