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MLB Coverage: What’s The Problem In Washington?

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The struggles of the Washington Nationals has been one of baseball’s big surprises in the first half of the 2013 MLB season. The Nats are a .500 club, with a 33-33 record and 5 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Washington is 6 ½ out of a wild-card slot.

There’s plenty of time to catch up, but those deficits underscore the importance of winning games quickly. What’s the problem in Washington? That’s what the National League installment of today’s MLB coverage will focus on.

THE ROTATION ROUNDS INTO FORM

Starting pitching is what this team is built on, and while there have been some rocky moments, and some individual struggles, the collective efforts of the rotation have continued to bear good fruit. Washington is third in the National League in starters’ ERA.

While Gio Gonzalez struggled for several weeks to start the season, Jordan Zimmerman picked up the pace and has pitched at a Cy Young level. Stephen Strasburg has been steady, with a 2.92 ERA and his recent trip to the disabled list proved to be minor, and Strasburg is expected to return tomorrow. Ross Detwiler is also back from the DL, after posting a 3.02 ERA in nine starts. Furthermore, Gonzalez appears to be locked in and back to the form that made him a 21-game winner last year. He’s been sharp his last three starts, and four of the last five.


It’s the bullpen that was reliable last year, but has been less so this year. There’s no problem at closer, where Rafael Soriano has closed 17 of 20 chances with a 2.67 ERA. The problem has been in front of Soriano. Drew Storen has struggled mightily after losing the ninth-inning gig, and has a 4.73 ERA. While Tyler Clippard and Craig Stammen have been competent, there’s a lack of depth here. The unit as a whole is eighth in the NL in ERA.

If Washington had a great offensive team, they could get by with the starting pitching, Soriano and some thin middle relief. But they don’t have a great offense. Quite the opposite.

NO OBVIOUS SOLUTIONS ON OFFENSE

No one thought the Nationals were going to win games by mashing out runs, but it was surely reasonable to expect them to do better than 14th in the National League wasn’t it? The only NL team that’s been worse is Miami.  There are no discernible strengths to build on—the Nats are bad at getting on base, and bad at hitting for power. In both cases, they’re also near the bottom of the league.

Bryce Harper is not enough, even when he comes back from his knee injury (he starts rehab next week). And when you look at the veterans it’s fair to ask where the help is coming from.

Adam LaRoche has been decent, hitting 10 home runs. You could say he was much better last year, but it was 2012 that was more the aberration than this season. LaRoche is a moderately decent offensive first baseman and that’s exactly what he’s playing like. Ryan Zimmerman is respectable at third, with a stat line of .349 on-base percentage/.454 slugging. Could he do better? Sure, but there’s no basis to assume it.

Ian Desmond has popped eight home runs in a nice show of power. Denard Span has been a disappointment in centerfield—at least disappointing to the Nats’ front office. A lot of us didn’t expect a lot from Span based on his years in Minnesota and “not a lot” is exactly what Washington is getting.

But the biggest blow is the continued failure of Jayson Werth, with his appalling .297/.378 stat line. Two years ago he was a disaster and the excuse was that he felt the pressure of the $126 million contract. Last year he was hurt. Now this year he’s been hurt some more, and been lousy when he’s in the lineup. I’ve given Werth benefit of the doubt in the past, but I’m frankly past that point now. I think we have to assume he’s just not that good and this is wasted money Washington paid out on a seven-year deal.

These are the veterans, and in some form or another this is probably what Washington fans can expect. Sure, one player might go above his expectations, but another player can just as likely go below. The Nats need someone to shake things up and that’s where the call-up of second baseman Anthony Rendon is a heartening development.

Washington’s regular second baseman Danny Espinosa got hurt. Given he wasn’t all that productive to begin with, the injury was what manager Davey Johnson needed to call up Rendon, who has promptly hit .308 in his first 52 at-bats with an on-base percentage of .390. The word on the street is that when Espinosa is healthy, he’ll be shipped to the minors.

Rendon gives this offense hope, but when you’re entire hope for improvement rests on a kid for whom it took an injury to persuade the organization to give him a shot, what does that say about the overall offensive prospects?

THE ROAD AHEAD

It might be deeply skeptical of the offense, but I do expect the pitching to continue to get better, as Gonzalez returns to form and Strasburg and Detwiler come off the disabled list. The bullpen has an interesting prospect in Fernando Abad, who’s only pitched nine innings, but looked very good in doing so. In short, we can expect Washington to be what we expected—some great pitching, top-to-bottom and just enough offense.

I think that’s going to be enough to justify sticking with my pick of the Nats to win the NL East. I respect Atlanta, but don’t believe they have the starting pitching depth to hold off a sustained drive by Washington. And a sustained drive is what’s going to come.

AROUND THE NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST: To contradict what I just wrote, Atlanta doesn’t look far from getting Brandon Beachy back in the rotation. While Beachy will help, I still think the Braves need a true ace to hold off the Nats.

NL CENTRAL: Pittsburgh is rolling along at 40-27, virtually neck-and-neck with Cincinnati for second place, and three games back of St. Louis for first. The Pirates need to get Jeanmar Gomez and James McDonald back from their rehab assignments, and they have to hope Wandy Rodriguez’ forearm stiffness that put him on the DL proves to be minor. With this many pitchers out, it’s a potential danger time for Pittsburgh.

NL WEST: San Diego has quietly moved to within four games of the lead, in what has become a packed four-team race. The Padres have gotten surprising offense, ranking seventh in the National League in scoring runs. But the recent injury to second baseman Jedd Gyorko was a blow, and unless Bud Black can find some pitching, this run won’t last.

 

The Washington Nationals Pitching Without Stephen Strasburg

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Stephen Strasburg is slowly but surely building his way to the not-so-magical 160 innings pitched limit that Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo says is the absolute bottom-line shutdown moment for Strasburgh’s season, including the playoffs. I’ve still got a hard time buying that Rizzo would really not his let his best pitcher go in the postseason if it comes to that, others who follow the Nats much closer than I do say the GM will hold firm. With Washington three games up in the NL East, TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the remaining Nationals starters to see how the absence of Strasburg would affect their ability to make the playoffs, win the NL East and ultimately make a big run in October.

Gio Gonzalez (13-6, 3.34 ERA, 22 starts): The deal to bring Gonzalez over from Oakland in the offseason has been one of the great steals of 2012. The 26-year-old lefty is on pace for his third straight year of 30-plus starts and keeping his ERA in the low 3s. While you can argue that the shift to the National League should have produced a drop in ERA without a designated hitter, you can counter that by noting that Gonzalez went from a pitcher’s dream park in Oakland to one less so in Washington.

Jordan Zimmerman (8-6, 2.45 ERA, 22 starts): Zimmerman’s ERA and workload are that of a true #1 starter and after a strong performance in 2011 when he got his first chance at a regular rotation turn, it’s not all that surprising.

Edwin Jackson (6-7, 3.56 ERA, 21 starts): Jackson has given the Nationals exactly what they wanted when they acquired him in the offseason. Just like he gave St. Louis exactly what they wanted when he was picked up as a rental at the ’11 trade deadline. Jackson won’t dazzle you, but he chews up innings, posts a respectable ERA and stabilizes the middle of a rotation. He’s also got playoff experience, including winning a do-or-die NLDS game against Philadelphia last year and that’s going to be invaluable for this current Nationals’ staff.

Ross Detwiler (6-4, 3.02, 16 starts): Detwiler’s also made six relief appearances and logged over 100 innings. His ERA is good right now, although of all the Washington starters he’s been the most up and down over the course of the season. The 26-year-old pitcher posted similar numbers in ten starts last year. The key concern will be how his arm responds now that he has to be stretched out over an entire year.

These are the four starters that currently join with Strasburg. Once the shutdown occurs, the fifth spot would be up for grabs, likely between Tom Gorzelanny and Chien-Ming Wang. My understanding is that the Nats prefer Wang get the job. He’s on a Double-A rehab stint right now and has an unencouraging 7.61 ERA in four starts. The ERA was 4.04 in the same sample size in 2011. Ultimately there’s no reason to think Wang has gotten his career back on track after being derailed in the Bronx by a fluke leg injury in 2008. Gorzelanny doesn’t have the upside Wang might offer, but the past two years as a starter he’s had an ERA in the 4s. This year Gorzelanny’s been in the bullpen and has a nice 3.48 ERA.

When you look at this rotation, you can see why Rizzo is comfortable shutting Strasburg down in the regular season. Even without him, they still have a legitimate 1-2 punch in Gonzalez and Zimmerman, and a veteran presence in Jackson. With a six-game lead in the wild-card race, I can’t imagine this staff would not make the playoffs, particularly when you factor in that Strasburg’s got probably five starts before he gets shut down. The NL East is a little tougher call, with Atlanta in close pursuit, but the Braves have deeper pitching problems and in the end five more Strasburg starters plus this group above can likely hold off Atlanta.

But what about when you go into a playoff series, let’s say against Cincinnati or San Francisco? I pick those two teams not to disregard others, but because they are the two whom the presence of Strasburg might be needed to ensure Washington has the best starting pitching. The Reds and Giants each have true aces, in Johnny Cueto and Matt Cain, and each has depth. They can match up, if not exceed, the four starters outlined above (the need for a #5 would be gone in the playoffs). Furthermore, if Washington reaches the World Series, they would need Strasburg’s hard stuff to match up with AL lineups and they’d likely need Detwiler in the bullpen to give Davey Johnson more options.

So by all means, slow Strasburg down the rest of the regular season. Pitch him every seventh day, limit him to five innings a start, do what you have to do to keep him at 160 innings in the regular season. But don’t do the hard shutdown that’s currently projected and certainly don’t keep him out of the playoffs. You never know when a chance at a World Series title is going to happen and Strasburg makes the Nats the National League favorite.

The Cream Of The Crop For The Washington Nationals

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2012 was supposed to be the year for the Washington Nationals, where they at least posted their first winning season since moving to D.C. from Montreal in 2004 and made a run at the playoffs. To use political parlance in this election year, let’s say that the early returns are looking good for the Nats, as they’re off to an 8-3 start and lead the National League East at this early date.  Washington’s goals for the season are modest—85 wins would fulfill the goal of a winning year with room to spare, and might be enough to steal one of the two wild-card berths. At the very least it keeps them in contention. Therefore, if the Nats just get solid years from their top-level players, they’ll have enough to do that. With that in mind, TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the stars inside the D.C. Beltway.

One of Washington’s biggest stars is in the dugout. Having Davey Johnson as manager is another reason I feel confident in orientating this article around the upper crust, rather than focus on depth. As important is depth is, it’s often something a manager can help create, through finding the right niche for players to fill. No manager can create stars, or make stars play like stars (how’s that for redundant use of a word), so the ultimate verdict of the Nats’ season comes down to the top three starters—Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, along with four key parts in the everyday lineup—third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, rightfielder Jayson Werth, first base/left field Michael Morse and catcher Wilson Ramos. Let’s run through this group…

Stephen Strasburg: With him being only 23 years old and missing most of 2011 after elbow surgery it seems surprising, at least to me, that he’s already got twenty career starts. His ERA is a sparkling 2.35, and most importantly he’s off to a good start in 2012. This is the year he had to answer the bell is the team’s Opening Day starter, and his three outings, including last night over Houston, have produced a 2-0 record, a 1.42 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Yeah, I’d say he’s worthy of all the hype that surrounded his selection with the first pick in the 2010 amateur draft.

Gio Gonzalez: I still can’t believe the Nats got this 26-year-old stud out of Oakland for  what amounted to nothing more than an autographed picture of President Obama and Speaker Boehner at the State of the Union address. Over the past two seasons in Oakland, Gonzalez won 31 games and his ERAs were in the 3.10 to 3.20 range both times. He went over 200 innings both years. While pitching in Oakland’s spacious park was a big help, so is not having to face a DH anymore in the National League. Gonzalez’s first start as a Nat was less than stellar, as he got roughed up in Wrigley Field, but he came back with a strong outing over Cincinnati, and takes the ball tonight against Houston.

Jordan Zimmerman: He was the unsung hero of last year’s staff, getting his first chance at regular major league work at age 24. He threw 161 IP and posted a 3.18 ERA. There’s always the concern of it being a fluke, especially given that he didn’t have a  Strasburg-like resume coming in, but Zimmerman’s first two starts this year have been dominant, averaging seven innings an outing with a buck-42 ERA.

Ryan Zimmerman: Can the third baseman stay healthy? His home run totals have gone from 33 to 25 to 12 over the last three years. Now last season he was injured so the raw numbers are going to go down, but he still got nearly 400 at-bats, so even pro-rated, his power has been dropping. Again, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming he wasn’t fully healthy when he did play. But whatever the reason, Johnson needs Zimmerman to have a big year, which we’ll define as slugging over .500 and having an OBP over .360, while getting 500 at-bats. Zimmerman met all those benchmarks in 2010-11.

Jayson Werth: I’m fully prepared to write off his terrible 2011 season as the result of the pressure that comes with signing a contract for over $100 million. This is an excuse I’ll give to new free agents across the board, but I have to vent about how ridiculous it is—if you give a guy the keys to the vault, aren’t pressures to produce a given? But reality tells us that players do need an adjustment period, so I think Werth’s going to return to the player he was in Philly where he hit the benchmarks I outlined for Zimmerman above. And Werth’s early returns are as good as the team’s (surely no coincidence), as he’s hitting .341, drawing walks and slugging .432—not great, but tolerable for a small sample size that hasn’t given the player time to heat up.

Michael Morse—The first piece of bad news comes here, as a bad back will have Morse on the disabled list for the next six weeks. He languished in obscurity in Seattle before the Nats gave him a chance in 2010, and in part-time duty he had an OBP/Slugging line of .352/.519 and popped 15 home runs. Upgraded to full-time last year, Morse posted a .360/.440 line and went deep 31 times. He can play both first base and left field. The big question on his return will be whether the back is fully healed and will allow him to drive the ball for power.

Wilson Ramos—I flat-out love this kid. The 24-year-old catcher broke in last year and had a .334/.445 line. He’s off to a slow start in 2012, but in this lineup he only needs to be good fifth or sixth-place hitter and there’s plenty of time to grow into that.

If the Nationals get big years from these players, it will have them in the mid-80s for wins, which fulfills their preseason goals. Then if you get solid work from players like second baseman Danny Espinosa and veteran pickups like Edwin Jackson in the rotation and Brad Lidge in the bullpen, you can think a little bigger. That will be a topic for another day. For now, let’s look to May 6 as the conclusion of the early evaluation period for the Nationals. Between now and then, they’ll finish up this series with Houston, have Miami come to town, go west to face the Dodgers and Padres, come back home to play Arizona and then that first weekend in May sees the Phillies come to town. The 6th is the series finale and will be on Sunday Night baseball from D.C. If Johnson’s team keeps playing steady baseball, it’s got the potential to be an exciting early season night on the East Coast.

MLB March Report: Washington Nationals

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The nation’s capital is where TheSportsNotebook stops today in its March run of major league baseball. The Washington Nationals have never had a winning season moving from Montreal in 2004. They have never made the playoffs in D.C. (even in Montreal they only made it in 1981). Expectations are high among Nationals’ fans to at least end the first streak and to give a real run at ending the second. TheSportsNotebook evaluates the personnel of a team that went 80-81 a year ago (c’mon MLB, let them play a makeup a game and try and get to .500!) to see if incremental improvement is in the cards. We’ll use our usual measuring sticks of the ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: I don’t like what I see here, as the Nationals have few players—if any for that matter, that can be really effective in setting the table. The power hitters, whom we’ll look at momentarily are good here, but you clearly want them to be in RBI situations or to hang a crooked number if they good deep. If we determine that the run producers have to be Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman who does that leave us with? Catcher Wilson Ramos is respectable at getting on base, and has decent pop. After that, Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond, and whomever wins the centerfield job, Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, are liabilities.

POWER: The offensive outlook for Davey Johnson looks good here. Morse is 30 years old and got his first chance at regular playing time over the past two seasons. In a “where has this guy been hiding” scenario, he’s consistently gone deep, slugged over .500 and puts up solid OBPs in the .360 range. Zimmerman has seen his power decline a bit the last couple years, but he hasn’t been completely healthy. He looks to be fine this spring and is a 25-30 HR man. First baseman Adam LaRoche hit exactly 25 home runs a year from 2008-10 before a bad season last year, but there’s no reason he can’t bounce back. Espinosa has atypical power for a second baseman, popping 21 out of the park. Ramos is a contributor in this area. And the big X-factor is Jayson Werth. After becoming the franchise’s $100 million man last offseason he struggled through an awful year. Was it just the pressure of it being the first year under his big contract, or is Werth ill-suited to be the main gun in an offense after being able to hide behind names like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in Philadelphia? For this year anyway, I think Werth deserves the benefit of the doubt and I’m betting on a return to career norms. Up and down the lineup, this team can take you deep.

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STARTING PITCHING: All of the media air in the room is going to be sucked up by Stephen Strasburg, the 23-year-old phenom who is finally healthy and ready to pitch  on Opening Day. In 17 career starts Strasburg’s ERA is 2.54, so we can understand where the hype is coming from. Now he has to stay healthy and show he can handle lineups as they get their second and third looks at him later in the season. Washington acquired Gio Gonzalez from Oakland, a great addition o the staff. Over the last two years Gonzalez has gone to the post 65 times with an ERA close to 3. While he leaves the comfort of Oakland’s pitcher-friendly ballpark, he also leaves the aggravation of the designated hitter. Jordan Zimmerman is another good young arm, who made 26 starts last year and posted a 3.18 ERA. John Lannan has quietly become very consistent. Over the last four years he’s had three seasons—including last year—of 30-plus starts and a sub-4 ERA. And in another great acquisition, the Nats added Edwin Jackson. Is it just me, or should Jackson be a lot older than 28 years old? He’s had ERAs throughout his career from the mid-3s to mid-4s. Most of that has been in the American League, but he was a big trade deadline addition for St. Louis last year in their improbable World Series run. Along with Werth, he gives this still-unproven team a veteran that’s gone the distance. The starting pitching is good enough that promising Ross Detwiler, who had a 3.00 ERA with ten starts can’t find a place to pitch.

RELIEF PITCHING: This part of the team could go either way. The setup situation looks very good. Tyler Clippard has quietly pitched at least 60 innings (a good number for a short reliever) for three consecutive seasons, with ERAs from a low of 1.83 to a high of 3.07. Sean Burnett has been similarly consistent, albeit without the high ceiling. Young Henry Rodriguez broke in at age 24 last year and had a respectable 3.56 ERA—not great in the National League, but certainly enough to be a solid arm when a starter has to leave after five or six innings. The closer situation is what will swing this. Drew Storen was fantastic in this role last year, closing 42 of 48 save chances with a 2.75 ERA. But he hasn’t pitched this spring thanks to inflammation of the elbow. An MRI shows no major damage…but he still hasn’t pitched this spring. Veteran Brad Lidge is on hand to either help in setup or step in at closer. The 35-year-old has been effective the last two seasons in Philadelphia when healthy, but the latter is a big qualifier. If Johnson has a healthy closer he’s got a great bullpen. If he doesn’t the skipper has the arms and the savvy to piece together the end of games, but it will be a lot more nerve-wracking and any hope of late-game dominance is out the window.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL:  84—I like this pitching staff and Johnson’s record of success with the Mets, Reds and Orioles—three organizations that have not exactly been synonymous with excellence—means I’ll take the Over, but I do with a little nervousness. This is a team not used to dealing with expectations and they’re a definite a media darling this spring. They’ve got the practical concern about getting runners on base consistently, and teams like that can hit some bad summer slumps as power shortages come and go. The NL East won’t give any easy games. Since my own rules require me to make a pick, I’m taking the Over, but this isn’t one where I’d put my money where my mouth is.