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The Washington Capitals Are On Top Again–Is This Good Or Bad?

The Washington Capitals are there again. Since the New Year, they’ve gone 14-3, moved to the top of the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division and are sitting with the best record in the NHL at 34-11-6. Given the Capitals’ history, should the fan base be excited or filled with dread? Washington has been the case study of a great regular season team since 2009, with all the compliments and digs that the phrase entails.

They’ve cleared the 100-point barrier in the regular season five times and are poised to make it six this year. They’ve won the President’s Trophy, given to the top regular season team, twice. This is after a franchise history where, from their founding in 1975 up through 2008, the Caps only accrued 100 points in a regular season four times.

But that has not translated into playoff success—or even playoff mediocrity. The postseason has been an absolute disaster. It’s not enough to say Washington hasn’t won the Stanley Cup—they haven’t made the Finals in this 2009-17 period, nor have they even gotten past the second round. This is mostly in line with franchise history, though even the pre-2009 Capitals found their way to the Finals in 1998 and a conference final in 1990.

Last year might have been the cruelest cut. Washington was easily the best team in hockey. But with the postseason having been shifted back to a divisional-based format in 2014, the Capitals were forced to deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round and dropped the series in six games.

To add insult to injury…well, it was the Penguins. It marked the eighth time in nine tries that Pittsburgh has ousted Washington from the playoffs and the second in this recent run of good Capitals’ teams. What’s more, the Penguins lucked into it. The difference in that series was the emergence of goaltender Matt Murray as a bona fide star. He saved the Pens from the mediocrity that was Marc-Andre Fleury. And Murray only got the chance, because Fleury was injured. Without that injury, I believe the Capitals beat the Penguins and I further believe that was the series that decided the 2016 Stanley Cup.

There are some sports where having the dominant regular season just isn’t helpful. This isn’t the NBA, where the best team usually wins, or at least makes the Finals. The NHL is “Spring Madness”, a two-month long version of the chaos that the NCAA’s March Madness packs into three weeks. Being the top dog is a dangerous place.

That’s why, when the Capitals got off to a somewhat middling start this season, I saw them as being right where they needed to be. Braden Holtby, their outstanding goaltender, was still playing well, but the media attention was focused on Columbus and Pittsburgh in the divisional race. That’s why, if Washington fans feel a little leery of this current winning stretch, I don’t blame them.

I’m not a Capitals fan—my loyalties lie with the Boston Bruins. But I am strongly sympathetic to the plight of the Washington faithful. I lived in that area for four years and believe the Caps fan base is one of the more underrated in all of sports. As a Redskins fan, I share NFL territory with them and hope they can experience the fun of hoisting the Cup.

There’s a lot of precedent for a team with a long history of playoff frustration winning it when it’s something less than their best year. The Penguins of last year are a perfect example. Another one is the Detroit Red Wings of 1997-98, who won it out of the 3-seed after being eliminated as the league’s best from 1994-96.

Washington can comfortably slide back into third place and fit that criteria perfectly. And in an age where the city of Cleveland has won a championship and the Chicago Cubs have won a World Series, can the Capitals make it three? I’m not ready to bet against them.

The Time Is Now For The Washington Capitals

The most important two months in the history of the Washington Capitals begins tonight when the open the playoffs at home against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Caps came into existence in 1975 and have never won the Stanley Cup. They’ve only made the Finals once (1998) and were swept, so they’re still looking for their first victory in the championship series, much less the Cup itself. Washington comes into this year’s postseason as the decisive favorite to win it all.

Joe Gibbs Washington Redskins

It’s not just the lack of a Cup that tortures Washington fans, it’s that the team has gained a reputation for “choking like dogs”, as ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser, a D.C. resident, frequently puts it on Pardon The Interruption. The team’s best player, Alex Ovechkin, has three MVP awards and may win a fourth this year after a 50-goal season. He also the reputation of another Alex—Rodriguez that is, for postseason failure.

Back in February, I wrote that I believed Washington’s time had come and the primary reason was the work of goaltender Braden Holtby. The Stanley Cup playoffs are a goaltender’s game and even a team with the best offensive talent will need a few games—maybe even an entire series—where the goalie needs to turn himself inside and out to save the day. The play gets more physical, the penalties a little less frequent and defense wins.

Washington has never had a goalie like Holtby. He tied for seventh in the league in save percentage. Unlike a lot of his teammates, he’s got some playoff cred. As a wet-behind-the-ears rookie, he beat Boston’s great Tim Thomas in a seven-game thriller back in 2012. Washington’s worst playoff chokes were in the years immediately preceding that. Holtby is, relatively speaking, baggage-free.

The team defense surrounding the goaltender is also excellent. Head coach Barry Trotz, also not here for the worst collapses of 2010-11 has made the team tougher, both physically and mentally and they rank sixth in the NHL in preventing shots and goal.

Thus, we have a team that doesn’t allow many good looks at the goal, has a solid goaltender for when they do, and has one of the great offensive players in the game’s recent history.

George Allen Redskins

But this isn’t the NBA, and top seeds lose in the NHL playoffs, including early. The Flyers are a young team coming together at the right time that’s playing good defense themselves. I fully expect this to be a tough series that will go at least six games.

The structure of the Stanley Cup playoffs—division-based, rather than conference-based, sets up a possible titanic war between the Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round. These are the best two teams in the East and over the years, the Pens are as responsible as any team for Washington’s spring heartbreak.

If we peek further around the corner, teams like Tampa Bay—the Eastern Conference champ last year, an elite goalie in Ben Bishop and great offensive talent led by Steven Stamkos await. The Finals themselves could be championship-proven teams like Chicago or Los Angeles. Or St. Louis, with the league’s best goalie this season, Brian Elliot.

There’s never time to breathe or relax when you root for a team in the NHL playoffs. Washington Capitals fans are about to embark on what they hope will be the ride of their life. I’m rooting for them to do it. I’m predicting them to do it. But I wouldn’t count on too many restful nights along the way.

The Reason This Year’s Washington Capitals Are Different

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The Washington Capitals might be having a dominant regular season, but given their troubled history in the postseason no one really cares. The Caps are 35-8-4, running away with the Metropolitan Division, the Eastern Conference and in the lead in the race for the President’s Cup, given to the regular season’s best team. But the Capitals have become to the NHL what the Cincinnati Bengals are in the NFL. None of this really matters—the question is whether or not they can win in the playoffs.

Joe Gibbs Washington Redskins

Washington has never won the Stanley Cup in their 41-year history and only made the Finals once, back in 1998 when they were swept by the Detroit Red Wings. That’s only part of the problem—in the era of Alex Ovechkin, easily the team’s best player, the Capitals have suffered some infamous playoff burnouts.

They lost as a high seed each year from 2009-11. Last year, even though they won a Game 7 against the New York Islanders and had the heavily favored New York Rangers in a 3-1 series hole, Washington still managed to see their history turned against them. They gave up the game-tying goal to the Rangers in the final minutes of Game 5 and lost the series in an overtime Game 7. Even when the Caps overachieve, it still seems to bite them in the rear.

But this year has a very real chance of different and not because of the sheer dominance taking place in the regular season. The reason to like this year’s Washington team to advance deep in the playoffs—and possibly win it all—is the play of goaltender Braden Holtby.

Holtby came onto the scene in 2012 very late in the regular season. With Washington’s regular goalies injured, Holtby responded by outdueling Boston’s great Tim Thomas in a tough seven-game series and got the Capitals out of the first round. Holtby got the regular job and has steadily grown into a reliable starter over the past three seasons. This year has been a breakout.

His save percentage is 92.9%, in the league’s elite. His goals-against-average is 2.07, also in the league elite. This success is in conjunction with a defense that’s tightened up, ranking third in the league in shots allowed. Holtby is a serious contender for the Vezina Trophy, the goaltender’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award and the team as a whole plays the kind of hockey that wins playoff games.

Washington didn’t lose in year’s past because of some magical curse. They lost because they were built to win in the regular season. Offensive flash can succeed over the course of the season, when intensity isn’t maxed out on a nightly basis. The flow of play can be much smoother and the ability of a player like Ovechkin to dominate is enough to win.

George Allen Redskins

That’s not the case in the playoffs. The intensity is dialed up, the hitting and the grinding is tougher and fortune favors the teams who have gotten accustomed to playing tough defense and have the kind of goalies that can win a series by themselves.

The Washington Capitals finally have the kind of team that can win four consecutive playoff series and hoist the Stanley Cup. It’s a goaltender’s game in the playoffs and the Capitals finally have one of the best in Braden Holtby.

What’s Wrong With The Washington Capitals?

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We’re almost one-third of the way through the lockout-shortened NHL season and the Washington Capitals have to feel a sense of urgency. The Caps are only four points behind in the race for the last playoff spot, and as this article goes online, they play head-to-head with the New York Rangers, currently the team holding the cutoff spot at #8. But Washington also opened Sunday in 15th place among 15 Eastern Conference teams, meaning it will take some sustained winning to leapfrog everyone else. Let’s take a look at what’s wrong with the Caps this year and how it compares to the last two years.

The problem isn’t on the offensive end. While Alex Ovechkin hasn’t really cut loose yet, with five goals and five assists, he’s at least productive. And the rest of the Washington front line is very balanced and deep when it comes to scoring threats. Joel Ward has five goals on the opposite wing of Ovechkin, as does Troy Bouwer. The passing is excellent, with centers Mike Riberior and Nicklas Backstrom, along with forward Jason Chimera, doing a good job getting the puck to the scorers. Washington can attack from any point on the ice and do it two lines deep.

Washington is 10th in the league at lighting the lamp, so clearly it’s not goal-scoring that’s the problem. That only leaves one other possibility and the defensive end has been a disaster in the early part of the season. The Caps are 29th in a 30-team league at stopping goals. Most of the blame for this falls, as you might expect, on the goaltenders. Michael Neuvirth and Braden Holtby have split time and been equally ineffective.

Furthermore, the defense in front of the goalies has not exactly been stellar. While the Caps aren’t rock-bottom awful at preventing shots, they’re still in the lower half of the league. Thus, you have a team that leaves it goalies exposed, and those goalies aren’t any good. Yes, that would qualify as a problem.

If we flip back to the offensive side, you might say things are actually going to get worse, because Washington’s scoring ranks significantly above its ability to generate shots on goal, normally two stats that merge together. However, I’d go to bat for the Caps on this one—the same phenomena existed last season, and it’s not unusual for teams with a signature offensive star (in this case Ovechkin) to be able to convert goals at a rate higher than their total shots would suggest. And in fact, Washington is doing a better job getting shots this year than was the case a year ago.

What’s most alarming about this franchise though, is the way the defensive play has fallen off steadily for two consecutive season. The 2011 Caps were a vintage team that got the #1 seed in the East before losing in the second of the playoffs. Last year’s team got some respect for winning a playoff round over Boston as an underdog, but it was still a second-round exit and the team was obviously worse throughout the regular season, coming in as the #7 seed. Now the Caps are sitting on #15. Their ranking in goals allowed has gone from 4th to 21st to 29th over this timeframe, with the ability to prevent shots going from 9th to 16th to 19th.

Thus, while the loss of goalie Semyon Varlamov after 2011 obviously hurt, and seeing last year’s main goalie Thomas Vokoun performing at least respectably in Pittsburgh, the Caps can’t ignore that the defensive play has been a team-wide problem. Maybe the 22-year-old Holtby is just going through some growing pains and can find the insanely hot mojo he had in the Boston playoff series a year ago. Because that’s what it’s going to take. Fixing a team-wide defensive epidemic takes time, and time is not something that’s on Washington’s side in a season where there’s no time to dig out of a hole.

Will The Washington Capitals Turn It Around In Time?

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The Washington Capitals have got themselves a reputation going for dynamic regular seasons followed by playoff failures under the leadership of head coach Bruce Boudreau and star forward Alex Ovechkin. Tired of the bad rap, Boudreau was fired in late November after the Caps started slowly, but it appears the way Washington will find some consistency is just to play mediocre hockey all year, rather than just in the playoffs. If the postseason started today the Caps would be home. TheSportsNotebook takes a look to see if there is any possibility for a turnaround in the season’s fourth quarter.

Washington is still very much alive. Their 67 points place them third in the Southeast Division, only three back of Florida. Winnipeg is in second place, currently holding down the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot and just one point ahead of Washington. For the first time in a while, the Southeast has two teams in the top eight, thanks to the slump of Toronto who’s dropped to 10th. So the Caps can play their way in just by being a steady, consistent hockey team in the homestretch.

It’s getting that consistency that’s been at issue and it starts with Ovechkin. Based strictly on production I wouldn’t even find him worthy of mention if it weren’t for his past performance and reputation. Washington has no one they can rely on to consistently light the lamp and their defense isn’t coming to the rescue. While Florida is in the league’s upper half in defense, Washington joins Winnipeg in being mediocre on this end of the ice. And while Winnipeg is at least decent in the area of shot prevention, Washington exposes suspect goaltenders Tomas Vokoun and Michael Neuvirth to a steady assault of pucks.

What Washington does substantially better than either of its two rivals is execute in basic 5-on-5 play. The Caps are in the top half of the NHL when no penalty is in effect either way, and both rivals are anywhere from mediocre to poor. Washington needs a lot of work cashing in its power plays (something Winnipeg and Florida both do a good job of) and killing penalties (something their rivals are also lousy at), but if the Caps get officials who will just let the game flow, they have an edge. That in of itself would make them the best possible threat to make the playoffs and presumably help out in big regular season games where officials are less likely to get involved.

Performance in key games has been a Washington strength in February, but sustaining solid play has not. Twice the Caps have gone head-to-head with Florida. Both times they won. And both times they followed the win by losing three straight. Let’s run through the games to see if there are any common themes…

On February 7, the Panthers came to the Verizon Center and were handed a 4-0 defeat. Oveckhkin met the big-game moment and scored two goals, including one on the power play. Even though Florida got 42 shots on goal, they couldn’t finish the job. Two nights later it was Winnipeg in town, still on the outside in the Southeast race. After a scoreless two periods, each team scored two power play goals, including one by Ovechkin, but the Jets won in a shootout. Still, the Caps picked up a point and they lost a close game on the road against the New York Rangers 3-2. Here again, we can cut Washington some slack. They were playing the best team in the East on the road and turned in a competitive effort. It was what happened one night later that has to be seen as unacceptable. While San Jose is a decent hockey team, you can’t let them come into your building, fall behind 3-0 immediately and give up three power-play goals in a non-competitive 5-3 loss. It put Washington’s back to the wall when they went to Florida on Friday, February 17.

Once again, Ovechkin was clutch. With Florida leading 1-0 after two periods, the star joined Jason Semin in scoring a third period goal and getting a well-earned road win, as the Caps won shots 41-23. One day later they turned around and lost to a bad Tampa team 2-1. Here again, let’s cut them a break because it was a back-to-back spot on the road. But let’s not cut them a break for going to a terrible Carolina team, giving up three first-period goals, losing shots 40-17 and the game five-zip. Let’s not cut the Caps a break for going to an Ottawa team that is okay, but not great and falling behind 4-0 after two periods and losing 5-2. We see a defense in meltdown and an offense doing nothing until a game is out of reach.

Just when you’re ready to throw in the towel on Washington, they came back with a win this past Friday over Montreal 4-1, with Ovechkin getting a key second period goal. On Saturday the team played its most complete game of this entire sequence under review. They won on the road over Toronto in a big game. In the 4-2 win, four different players scored, with none of them named Ovechkin. Lest you think the forward disappeared, he had two assists. Washington got the win in spite of getting only one power play chance, a testament to their ability to score without getting penalty help.

Are there any conclusions we can draw from the last three weeks? On the positive side, there are obvious signs of life from Ovechkin, the one factor Washington has that separates them from anyone else scrounging for a playoff spot. One player can push a team through a short burst in the season, particularly when we’re just talking about winning a mediocre division or sneaking into the 8-spot in the East. Just as alarming though is the obvious tendency of Washington to seemingly no-show games. I counted three that were all but mailed in during a 10-game stretch. Given that you’re still going to lose tough ones, I trust it goes without saying that a team that’s going to be non-competitive 30 percent of the time doesn’t deserve to make the postseason and is no threat to do anything if they do.

Given the caliber of the competition in the race and the importance of both the Ovechkin revival and the need to play well in 5-on-5 spots, I think Washington remains the best bet to win the division and the Southeast’s best hope for making some noise in the postseason. The team has a manageable five-game home stretch coming up that includes non-contenders in the NY Islanders, Carolina and Tampa and beatable playoff teams like Philadelphia and New Jersey. When we conclude play next Thursday, March 8, we’ll have a good idea if Washington can finally put it together with time running out.

I have friends who are Caps fans, including a couple who are season-ticket holders, and if Boston can’t win it all again, I’d like to see them have the experience of being the last one standing in June. So call me an optimist, but I think Washington passes the coming test.

NHL Weekend: Southeast Division Race Goes To NYC

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There’s no race in hockey bigger right now than the Southeast Division, where Florida and Washington are tied with 61 points apiece. The winner of the race grabs the #3 seed automatically and the loser is on the fringe of the playoffs, with 62 being the baseline number for getting in the top eight as of today. So as we go into the weekend it could be a rare win-or-go-home division race in the Southeast, and on Sunday that race comes to the Big Apple.

Washington will be in Madison Square Garden (12:30 PM ET, NBCSN—formerly Versus) to face East-leading New York. The story around the Caps all year has justifiably been the sluggish play of Alex Ovechkin. For years, the criticism of Ovechkin mirrored that of this team—he could come up big in the regular season, and then fizzle in the spring. This year they both have seemed to have gotten some consistency, although perhaps not the kind the faithful Caps fans—as underrated a fan base as there is in sports—would like to see.

The Capitals are going to depend on two things on Sunday, beyond the general “any given day” variables. Going against an elite goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, the Caps need to play a great defensive game and that means staying out of the penalty box, as other teams have feasted on them in the power play. Furthermore, Washington is one of the NHL’s best in straight five-on-five-play, giving them an edge if they can just go even up with the Rangers. The second variable is how much focus their opponent will have—New York plays at Philadelphia on Saturday, with both teams within four points in the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference overall. If the Rangers are going to go all-in on one game this weekend, it’s probably Saturday and not Sunday. Either way, an Ovechkin battle with elite New York scorer Alex Ovechkin in a big game is good Sunday afternoon fare, and I like the Caps to find a way to win and keep their season turned around.

On the New York undercard, is Florida-NY Islanders at Nassau Coliseum on Long Island. I really don’t understand why the Islanders can’t get into playoff contention (they’re 10 points out). They have decent goaltending and a good center in John Tavares. I’m not saying they’re a burgeoning Cup contender, but they should be playing meaningful hockey right now. If nothing else, they’re good enough to play spoiler to a team fighting for its life like Florida. Both of these teams are decent at getting shots, but terrible at turning them into goals, a stat that leads one to wonder if the shots are just wildly launched at the goal, or if they’re properly set up with screens, followed by the less flashy, but more effective rebound shots. Neither team executes in the 5-on-5. Florida’s better on the power play, but the Islanders are better on the penalty kill. I lean the Isles to win at home in this spot and put Florida into second place by weekend’s end.

Sunday night NBC steps in with a nationally televised game between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:30 PM ET. Like the Rangers, I would expect the Flyers to leave it on the ice against a division rival on Saturday, but the Red Wings are missing elite goaltender Jimmy Howard for a couple weeks, so this one’s anybody’s game.

If we move backward through the rest of the weekend, we see the aforementioned Saturday game between the Rangers and Flyers, along with a Nashville-Boston game in the Garden. Nashville’s playing pretty good hockey right now, while Boston is coming off a bad 6-0 loss to lowly Buffalo. The NHL Network game at 7 PM ET is Montreal-Toronto, with the Leafs hoping to capitalize on Boston’s struggles and make it a race in the Northeast. Then on Friday, while Anaheim-Detroit is the NHL Network game, the best game of the night is Chicago-San Jose. Earlier this week, TheSportsNotebook chronicled Chicago’s recent struggles, while San Jose is holding a narrow two-point lead over Los Angeles for the lead in the Pacific Division.