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Washington capitals playoffs

NHL Weekend Preview

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NHL teams only have 12-15 games left in the regular season and the playoffs will set to begin within a week of the ending of the NCAA Tournament, so TheSportsNotebook isn’t letting the action on the ice pass us by while March Madness is going on. If you turned your head for just a few days here’s what you missed…

*The St. Louis Blues have 93 points and that’s better than the New York Rangers, Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks or anyone else in hockey. That’s right, the Blues lead the entire NHL and are aiming to give the city its second championship in less than a year.

*The Washington Capitals are much-maligned and they deserve all of it, but they’ve also played their way into the 8-spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

*Steven Stamkos at Tampa Bay is building his MVP case, as the Lightning, after being in the tank all year, are within three points of Washington for the playoffs. Stamkos is a runaway NHL leader in goals scored and a narrow leader in points.

*I think I personally jinxed the Phoenix Coyotes. On February 29 I was at their game against Vancouver where they won 2-1 in a shootout and conclude a month where they were the NHL’s hottest team. They haven’t won since, and are barely holding on to a playoff berth, with a two-point lead in a stacked race for the West’s final two spots.

*Dallas has replaced Phoenix as both the flavor of the month and the Pacific Division leader, moving past both the Coyotes and the San Jose Sharks and holding down the 3-seed in the West (note that the Stars aren’t actually the third-best team, but division winners are guaranteed the top three slots).

*On a topic directly related to St. Louis’ rise, Detroit’s record home winning streak is only good for the fourth seed in the West right now. The Red Wings aren’t playing well, but they are dealing with an injury to Pavel Datsyuk at forward and goaltender Jimmy Howard. If these players make it back in time to impact the regular season, the Wings should move back ahead of the Blues and be seeded 1-2 along with Vancouver. Either way, Detroit’s expected to be healthy for the playoffs and I still anticipate a strong showing. But this is a big division race, because #5 Nashville has a solid goaltender in Pekka Rinne and has been a consistent hockey team all year. The Predators are not someone a Stanley Cup hopeful wants to mess with this early in the playoffs.

*On a topic directly related to Washington’s move, the Southeast Division stands to get its second-place team in the playoffs and the race for first place and the #3 seed is still red-hot. Florida’s in first, but Washington and Winnipeg are only two points back and Tampa just three points back. Considering that second place probably means the 8-seed and a first-round date with the New York Rangers and their MVP-caliber goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, this race is more than just who gets in, it’s about who finishes first.

The weekend schedule is strongest tonight with three games of significance. Florida visits Pittsburgh. The Penguins join New Jersey and Philadelphia in fluctuating between the 4-5-6 spots in the East, so there are home-ice implications for the hosts. Detroit hosts the LA Kings, who are another team with a shot at the Pacific Division and/or the last couple playoff spots in the West. And the Rangers go to the Windy City to take on Chicago, who’s steady at #6 in the West, but is one short slump away from being in a dogfight for survival.

On Saturday, Washington heads up to Boston. The Bruins are trying to hold off Ottawa for the Northeast Division title and #2 seed. The way it’s shaking out it could be Bruins-Senators in the first round, with the division race settling home ice advantage. This is also a big deal because I’m a B’s fan and a good friend of mine is a Caps fan. Also on Saturday is Detroit-Nashville and San Jose-Phoenix.

Sunday must be Boston day on the networks, because it’s Bruins-Penguins at 12:30 PM ET on NBC, and then it’s Celtics-Lakers at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. And after that it’s Selection Sunday time. Two other good hockey games on Sunday are Philly-New Jersey and Los Angeles-Chicago.

Will The Washington Capitals Turn It Around In Time?

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The Washington Capitals have got themselves a reputation going for dynamic regular seasons followed by playoff failures under the leadership of head coach Bruce Boudreau and star forward Alex Ovechkin. Tired of the bad rap, Boudreau was fired in late November after the Caps started slowly, but it appears the way Washington will find some consistency is just to play mediocre hockey all year, rather than just in the playoffs. If the postseason started today the Caps would be home. TheSportsNotebook takes a look to see if there is any possibility for a turnaround in the season’s fourth quarter.

Washington is still very much alive. Their 67 points place them third in the Southeast Division, only three back of Florida. Winnipeg is in second place, currently holding down the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot and just one point ahead of Washington. For the first time in a while, the Southeast has two teams in the top eight, thanks to the slump of Toronto who’s dropped to 10th. So the Caps can play their way in just by being a steady, consistent hockey team in the homestretch.

It’s getting that consistency that’s been at issue and it starts with Ovechkin. Based strictly on production I wouldn’t even find him worthy of mention if it weren’t for his past performance and reputation. Washington has no one they can rely on to consistently light the lamp and their defense isn’t coming to the rescue. While Florida is in the league’s upper half in defense, Washington joins Winnipeg in being mediocre on this end of the ice. And while Winnipeg is at least decent in the area of shot prevention, Washington exposes suspect goaltenders Tomas Vokoun and Michael Neuvirth to a steady assault of pucks.

What Washington does substantially better than either of its two rivals is execute in basic 5-on-5 play. The Caps are in the top half of the NHL when no penalty is in effect either way, and both rivals are anywhere from mediocre to poor. Washington needs a lot of work cashing in its power plays (something Winnipeg and Florida both do a good job of) and killing penalties (something their rivals are also lousy at), but if the Caps get officials who will just let the game flow, they have an edge. That in of itself would make them the best possible threat to make the playoffs and presumably help out in big regular season games where officials are less likely to get involved.

Performance in key games has been a Washington strength in February, but sustaining solid play has not. Twice the Caps have gone head-to-head with Florida. Both times they won. And both times they followed the win by losing three straight. Let’s run through the games to see if there are any common themes…

On February 7, the Panthers came to the Verizon Center and were handed a 4-0 defeat. Oveckhkin met the big-game moment and scored two goals, including one on the power play. Even though Florida got 42 shots on goal, they couldn’t finish the job. Two nights later it was Winnipeg in town, still on the outside in the Southeast race. After a scoreless two periods, each team scored two power play goals, including one by Ovechkin, but the Jets won in a shootout. Still, the Caps picked up a point and they lost a close game on the road against the New York Rangers 3-2. Here again, we can cut Washington some slack. They were playing the best team in the East on the road and turned in a competitive effort. It was what happened one night later that has to be seen as unacceptable. While San Jose is a decent hockey team, you can’t let them come into your building, fall behind 3-0 immediately and give up three power-play goals in a non-competitive 5-3 loss. It put Washington’s back to the wall when they went to Florida on Friday, February 17.

Once again, Ovechkin was clutch. With Florida leading 1-0 after two periods, the star joined Jason Semin in scoring a third period goal and getting a well-earned road win, as the Caps won shots 41-23. One day later they turned around and lost to a bad Tampa team 2-1. Here again, let’s cut them a break because it was a back-to-back spot on the road. But let’s not cut them a break for going to a terrible Carolina team, giving up three first-period goals, losing shots 40-17 and the game five-zip. Let’s not cut the Caps a break for going to an Ottawa team that is okay, but not great and falling behind 4-0 after two periods and losing 5-2. We see a defense in meltdown and an offense doing nothing until a game is out of reach.

Just when you’re ready to throw in the towel on Washington, they came back with a win this past Friday over Montreal 4-1, with Ovechkin getting a key second period goal. On Saturday the team played its most complete game of this entire sequence under review. They won on the road over Toronto in a big game. In the 4-2 win, four different players scored, with none of them named Ovechkin. Lest you think the forward disappeared, he had two assists. Washington got the win in spite of getting only one power play chance, a testament to their ability to score without getting penalty help.

Are there any conclusions we can draw from the last three weeks? On the positive side, there are obvious signs of life from Ovechkin, the one factor Washington has that separates them from anyone else scrounging for a playoff spot. One player can push a team through a short burst in the season, particularly when we’re just talking about winning a mediocre division or sneaking into the 8-spot in the East. Just as alarming though is the obvious tendency of Washington to seemingly no-show games. I counted three that were all but mailed in during a 10-game stretch. Given that you’re still going to lose tough ones, I trust it goes without saying that a team that’s going to be non-competitive 30 percent of the time doesn’t deserve to make the postseason and is no threat to do anything if they do.

Given the caliber of the competition in the race and the importance of both the Ovechkin revival and the need to play well in 5-on-5 spots, I think Washington remains the best bet to win the division and the Southeast’s best hope for making some noise in the postseason. The team has a manageable five-game home stretch coming up that includes non-contenders in the NY Islanders, Carolina and Tampa and beatable playoff teams like Philadelphia and New Jersey. When we conclude play next Thursday, March 8, we’ll have a good idea if Washington can finally put it together with time running out.

I have friends who are Caps fans, including a couple who are season-ticket holders, and if Boston can’t win it all again, I’d like to see them have the experience of being the last one standing in June. So call me an optimist, but I think Washington passes the coming test.

NHL Weekend Preview

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The Washington Capitals have done whatever they can in recent weeks to play themselves out of a chance at postseason redemption. The Caps have fallen four points behind a less-talented Panthers team in the NHL’s Southeast Division, and this is a division so poor that right now it stands to get just one team in the playoffs.  Friday’s NHL card is highlighted by a Panthers-Caps game down in the Sunshine State and if there were ever a time for Alex Ovechkin to show he’s more than just another pretty face, tonight would be good place to start. Other key games include Boston’s visit to Winnipeg. The Jets are still lurking with a playoff shot, four points out in the East and the Bruins have been playing some unstable hockey of late. Even as they hold down the #2 seed in the East, no one can forget that last year Philadelphia looked unstable late, held down the two-spot, and then was swept home by the B’s in the second round. I know as a Boston fan  I just shamelessly made that last passage about the B’s when the Jets have more at stake. Also worth checking is Nashville-Detroit. The Predators are settled into the 5-spot in the West for the time being, but Detroit has Vancouver hot in its heels for the conference’s pole position.

On Saturday the NHL Network has its usual day-night doubleheader. The prime-time fare (7  PM ET) is Washington-Tampa Bay. The Lightning are positively terrible this year, and this is the kind of game the Caps again must take care of business on. The day game at 1 PM ET is Pittsburgh-Philly. If the postseason started today this would be a first-round series and the Flyers lead by two in the fight for home ice. The West has a huge game with Calgary-Los Angeles. The Flames are two points out of the playoffs in the West, and it’s the Kings, along with the Phoenix Coyotes, who are right ahead of them. LA dropped a tough one to Phoenix last night to tighten this race up, and a Calgary win on Saturday turns it into a free-for-all . As for the Coyotes, they host Dallas, whose only four points back themselves, while Toronto—currently #8 in the East and three up on Washington—visits red-hot Vancouver.

Sunday in the NHL means NBC coverage and the day opens at 12:30 PM ET with split coverage among Pittsburgh-Buffalo, St. Louis-Chicago and San Jose-Detroit. The Penguins-Sabres game better be meant for the local markets because Buffalo is going nowhere. The Blues-Blackhawks is a nice rivalry spot (in the Midwest, rivalries are “nice”, whereas in the East it’s bloodsport). Chicago stopped the bleeding with a clutch win over the New York Rangers last night in MSG, but the Blackhawks are still in an uncomfortable spot with all the Western teams listed above right on their heels. The bleeding may be stopped in Chitown, but the patient is not yet back to full health. San Jose is like Florida—they’re the #3 seed right now, but only because of the privileges accorded a division champ. In reality, they only lead the Kings by four points and if LA takes the lead in the Pacific, the Sharks will drop to the bottom of the playoff seedings. A late NBC game is Boston-Minnesota (3:30 PM ET), where the Wild have been struggling. And a true must-win battle is Colorado-Winnipeg, with both teams trying to keep playoff hopes alive.