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Vancouver-San Jose NHL playoffs

NHL Analysis: Vancouver’s Self-Implosion Almost Complete

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Every first-round series in the NHL playoffs has completed three games and two of them are four deep, but only might end in elimination over the course of the next two nights. That’s San Jose-Vancouver, where the Canucks stand on the verge of yet another playoff flameout. The self-induced failure of Vancouver will lead our overview of all eight first-round matchups and an assessment of where they stand.

Vancouver waited until midway through Game 3 to finally lift Roberto Luongo from goal and put in Cory Schneider, who played better than Luongo in each of the last two playoff series the Canucks have lost over a two-year period (The Cup Finals to Boston in ’11 and the first round to Los Angeles in ’12), and, again, in more extended playing time throughout this season. Yet, Schneider remained on the bench until into Game 3 this time around.

The story was an injury, though Vancouver’s unwillingness to tell anyone what it was made Bill Belichick’s press office look like a model of open communication by comparison. My podcasting colleague Greg DePalma—a Canucks fan who shares my view of the goalie situation—believes the coaching staff wants any excuse to get Luongo in the lineup and they probably overplayed a minor injury into something serious. As a result, their 5-2 loss in Game 3 likely played them out of the postseason.

In fairness, Schneider did not distinguish himself. He was the man in net during the game’s fateful third period, when San Jose broke open a 2-1 game with two goals in the first two minutes. But do you think rust might have been involved? I think we’ll see a different Schneider for Game 4, but the way back is just too steep.

I picked Vancouver to reach the Finals when the playoffs began, but I’m going to pull a Skip Bayless here and say that I can’t help it if the coaching staff is going to refuse to play to their best player at the most important position.  I’m gladly distancing myself from this pick, because it simply would not have happened if I’d have thought Luongo was going anywhere near the ice in a key situation.

But while I trash the Canucks, let’s not forget to praise the team that’s taking it to them. Joe Pavelski scored twice for the Sharks early in the game and Logan Couture scored a pair of power play goals in the crucial third period. They might be benefitting from Vancouver’s dysfunction, but San Jose is also showing they’re good enough to take advantage and put games away. They’re a legitimate threat to join other recent San Francisco sports successes—the Giants and 49ers—as a team who can reach the championship round and win it. At the very least, the Sharks and the Golden State Warriors in the NBA, are keeping the sports high going in NoCal. San Jose will look to put Vancouver out of their misery tonight (10 PM ET, CNBC).

THE REST OF THE WEST

CHICAGO-MINNESOTA: Beware the backup unknown goalie. That’s the lesson Boston fans learned last year when Washington’s Braden Holtby came off the bench after an injury and went into an otherworldly zone. Is Minnesota’s Josh Harding going to do the same to the top-seed Blackhawks? The backup came up with his second great game of the series and this time his team delivered with a 3-2 overtime win. Most striking was that the Wild outshot the Blackhawks 37-27, with Jonathan Toews only getting four cracks at the net. You wonder if Chicago brought the necessary urgency to Game 3, as they still hold a 2-1 series lead.

ANAHEIM-DETROIT: This has been a quietly great series. It doesn’ t have a media favorite, and the games aren’t rich in storylines to write about. It’s just a lot of evenly contested hockey and when Detroit got an overtime to goal to win 3-2, the series was evened at two games apiece. Detroit played a like a team on the edge, assaulting Anaheim’s Jonas Hiller with 49 shots on goal. The Duck defense has to tighten up.

ST. LOUIS-LOS ANGELES: The Kings answered the bell with two consecutive wins on their home ice to even this series up. A couple of defensive-minded teams played a fairly open Game 4. St. Louis led 2-0 early and 3-2 in the third period, thanks to a pair of goals by T.J. Oshie, but Los Angeles scored twice early in the final period to get the margin of victory. The Kings’ offense was balanced and defensively they limited the Blues to 22 shots. Both goalies, Brian Elliot and Jonathan Quick, were mediocre at best.

IN THE EAST

PITTSBURGH-NY ISLANDERS: The Penguins aren’t going to shake the pesky Islanders easily. The favorites’ 5-4 overtime win in Game 3 came even harder than the word “overtime” makes it appear. New York, playing at home, scored twice early and put immediate pressure on Pittsburgh.

The Pens showed both what’s good and what’s bad about them in this game. The good is that they can score a lot, and they’ve got a lot of resilience, responding with three goals of their own before the first period was out. The bad is that the defense and goaltending is substandard. They couldn’t kill two penalties in the third period and a pair of Islander goals tied the game 4-4, including one by John Tavares, who’s been AWOL in this series. The ability to keep him off the puck—he only had three shots—continues to be a recurring theme and the one thing the Pittsburgh defense is doing well. But they’re up two games to one.

MONTREAL-OTTAWA: Oh, is the bad blood running rampant. Record-setting penalties, full-scale brawls and coaches taunting each other, show how testy Montreal is getting. I put the burden here not to assign blame, but because the Canadiens are the 2-seed and the favorite, and are better suited to 5-on-5 hockey. Ottawa kills penalties better, thanks to its huge edge in the goaltending department. It showed in Game 3, as the Senators  scored three times with the man advantage, while killing six of seven Montreal chances. The Canadiens need to generate a huge shot advantage if they’re going to win games. The 34-30 margin they had in Game 3 won’t cut it and translated to a 6-1 loss. Ottawa now leads the series 2-1.

WASHINGTON-NY RANGERS: A great back-and-forth Game 3 ended with the Rangers getting a tip-in goal from Derek Stepan in overtime. I picked New York in this series, am rooting for Washington and was ultimately just glad to see the Rangers close the series gap to 2-1, so we can get more of these hotly contested games. New York turned around their fortunes by limiting Alex Ovechkin to three shots on goal.

BOSTON-TORONTO: The Bruins pretty much controlled the game throughout, taking an early 2-0 lead. Even when the Leafs scored their first goal, Boston’s Nathan Horton immediately responded with a goal of his own to extend the margin and the Bruins won 5-2. Toronto enjoyed a rare shot advantage, 47-38. This was done mostly in the third period when they trailed 4-1 coming in and launched an array of shots at Tuuka Rask, but the Boston goalie made up for a subpar showing in Game 2. The B’s now lead the series two games to one.

LOOKING AHEAD

Six Game 4s and a pair of Game 5s dot the schedule for Tuesday and Wednesday…

TUESDAY
Montreal-Ottawa (7 PM ET, CNBC)
Pittsburgh-NY Islanders (7 PM ET, NBCSN)
Chicago-Minnesota (9:30 PM ET, NBCSN)
Vancouver-San Jose (10 PM ET, CNBC)

WEDNESDAY
Boston-Toronto (7 PM ET, NHL)
Washington-NY Rangers (7:30 PM ET, NBCSN)
Los Angeles-St. Louis (9  PM ET, CNBC)
Detroit-Anaheim (10 PM ET, NBCSN)

TheSportsNotebook’s NHL analysis will return Thursday morning to assess each series anew.

 

NHL Analysis: The Champs Are In Trouble

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What a difference a year makes. In last year’s NHL playoffs, the then-8th-seeded Los Angeles Kings got two road wins at Vancouver to open a run to the Stanley Cup. This year the Kings have lost consecutive 2-1 gutwrenchers in St. Louis and gotten themselves in early trouble as their first round series heads back to Hollywood this weekend.

The St. Louis-Los Angeles series, along with Anaheim-Detroit—the only other first-round pairing to have already played two games—will lead our discussion, and we’ll then sweep through the other six matchups.

ST. LOUIS-LOS ANGELES

The gaffe of Los Angeles goaltender Jonathan Quick led the highlights after Game 1 on Tuesday. In an overtime game, Quick brought the puck behind the net, tried to pass it out, had it deflected by Alexander Steen who quickly stuck it in the net. Steen’s play was as alert a move as anything we’ve seen in the postseason since Larry Bird picked off Isiah Thomas in the 1987 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.

Making matters worse for Quick is that this came after his team had tied the game 1-1 with just 32 seconds left in regulation, and that at the time of the gaffe they were on a four-minute power play. All the momentum was there for Los Angeles, and the goalie—who otherwise had a great night, stopping 40 of the first 41 shots fired at him prior to Steen’s game-winner—let it slip away. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy last year, awarded to the MVP of the entire postseason and he’s now the poster child for the “What A Difference A Year Makes.”

Game 2 saw more heartbreak for Quick and Los Angeles. They led 1-0 after two periods, but the Blues scored twice in the third period, the final one with 50 seconds left. After a subpar regular season, Quick is actually playing much better—63 saves on 67 shots is an extremely high level of play. But the mistakes have put his team in a big hole.

ANAHEIM-DETROIT

Anaheim is the quiet #2 seed, neither on a par with Chicago or Pittsburgh in terms of media hype, nor one whose history will get them the respect of their current opponent. TheSportsNotebook is one of the guilty parties, having picked the Red Wings to win this series. The Ducks took the opener 3-1, breaking open a tie game with a pair of third period goals. Detroit then came back with a 5-4 overtime triumph last night, first giving away a 4-1 lead in the final period, then scoring early in OT to get the win.

I should be pleased with Detroit, but I’m not. The series being tied 1-1 is fine, but a big reason I picked them to advance was that goalie Jimmy Howard had playing much better at the end of the regular season. He’s now melted down in two straight third periods. Call me crazy, but giving up five goals in a pair of third period efforts is probably a recipe for trouble.

Detroit had the necessary offensive outburst to win Game 2, getting a pair of power play goals from Johan Franzen and two assists from their fine center Pavel Datsyuk. But if it comes down to offensive talent, Anaheim’s Corey Perry is the one to bet on and while hasn’t put his imprint on this series yet, he’s staying active and getting shots on the offensive end. Howard needs to up his game significantly as this series heads back to a great hockey town in the Rustbelt and Joe Louis Arena.

THE REST OF THE WEST

Vancouver was supposed to finally be beyond the Roberto Luongo era, the goalie that ensured they would always be a great regular season team that flamed out in the playoffs. But a mysterious, still-undefined injury to Cory Schneider left Luongo in the net for Game 1’s home opener against San Jose. The result was predictable, as the Sharks scored twice in the third period to break a tie and win 3-1.

I picked the Canucks to reach the Finals, but if Schneider doesn’t play, you can throw that out the window and I’ll take San Jose to win this series. The Sharks got Patrick Marleau, their key goal-scorer, into the flow of play and he got five shots. Logan Couture scored the game-tying goal in the second period and added an assist in the third. Goalie Antti Niemi was locked in against Vancouver’s quality offensive talent.

Schneider is tentatively expected to play Game 2 tonight. If he doesn’t, book the 6th-seeded Sharks for a trip to the second round sometime in the near future. If Schneider does play, my Finals prediction is back on track.

Speaking of the Finals, Chicago’s got their eye on that spot and while one might get concerned about a 2-1 overtime win over a backup goalie in Minnesota, I think this was the kind of win the Blackhawks needed. We know Chicago can win a free-flowing offensive game with all that talent. What we don’t know is how well they’ll respond when playoff games get ugly and you have to grind one out. Corey Crawford got the job done in goal and the Blackhawks survived.

But what is it with Minnesota athletes and the playoffs right now. First it’s Christian Ponder getting hurt right before the Vikings played the Packers in the NFL playoffs, now Nicklas Backstrom goes down before the Blackhawks series. Say this for Ponder and Backstrom—they aren’t stupid when it comes to knowing situations to avoid.

IN THE EAST

Pittsburgh looked every bit the top-heavy favorite in dispatching the New York Islanders 5-0, and doing it quickly—two goals in the first, three more in the second and let everybody relax in the third. Pascal Dupuis, the best scorer, lit the lamp twice and Evgeni Malkin was skillfully moving the puck to the scorers. Even more impressive was the defense, which kept Islander star John Tavares off the puck entirely, and one of the NHL’s best scorers didn’t get a single shot on net.

The issue of shot disparity was identified as a key in the Boston-Toronto series. The Bruins get shots, the Leafs aren’t very good at getting them or preventing them. And form held in Game 1, as Boston outshot Toronto 40-20 en route to a 4-1 win. The Leafs got a goal in the first two minutes of the game on a power play. But Boston’s Nathan Horton—a scorer whose health and productivity is critical to a Stanley Cup drive for my boys—got a tip-in on the power play and Boston pulled away.

Is Braden Holtby became the latest example of a player who waits until the postseason to shine? He came out of nowhere as a 22-year-old rookie fill-in last season, then had a fairly average regular season this year. Then the playoff lights went on, the New York Rangers came to town and Holtby morphed into Ken Dryden, saving 35 shots on 36 chances. New York got the puck to their best scorers—Rick Nash got eight shots on goal, a figure exceeded by no other offensive player. But Washington scored three times in the second period and Holtby made it stand up, en route to a 3-1 win.

We may as well call the Montreal-Ottawa series, the Montreal-Anderson series. Because Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson is all his team has against Montreal’s array of offensive weaponry. And Anderson is all Ottawa needs. The Canadiens assaulted him with 50 shots, the goalie turned away 48 and Montreal’s own problematic goaltending proved to be their undoing. With only 31 shots, a few power play opportunities, the Senators scored three times in the third period to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 win. My money remains on Anderson to carry his team to a big postseason run.

WHAT’S AHEAD

Friday & Saturday will see the six remaining Game 2s played, along with Los Angeles-St. Louis and Anaheim-Detroit picking up with Game 3 late Saturday night.  The schedule is below and TheSportsNotebook’s NHL analysis will resume Sunday morning.

FRIDAY
Ottawa-Montreal (7 PM ET)
NY Islanders-Pittsburgh (7 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)
Minnesota-Chicago (9:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)
San Jose-Vancouver (10 PM ET)

SATURDAY
NY Rangers-Washington (12:30 PM ET, NBC)
Toronto-Boston (7 PM ET)
Anaheim-Detroit (7:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)
St. Louis-Los Angeles (10 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)

NHL Analysis: Western Conference 1st Round Previews

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The NHL playoffs get rolling on Tuesday night, and in today’s NHL analysis we’re previewing the first-round matchups. This post will focus on the four series in the Western Conference (click here for the Eastern Conference)We’ll begin with capturing each series in a soundbite and then move to fuller discussion.

(1)Chicago vs. (8) Minnesota—Chicago goalie Corey Crawford made huge strides this season, and now has to do it when the money’s on the table.

(4)St. Louis vs. (5)LA Kings—Does the Blues’ well-coached defensive style enable them to avenge a second-round defeat from last season on Los Angeles’ march to the Cup?

(3)Vancouver vs. (6)San Jose—Does Vancouver’s successful change to goalie Cory Schneider this season mean they finally end their run of postseason disappointments?

(2)Anaheim vs. (7)Detroit—After fighting their way into the playoffs can the Red Wings’ thus-far disappointing offense cash in a second chance?

Now with a deeper look at each matchup…

CHICAGO-MINNESOTA

Goaltending was the missing link for the Blackhawks. This was always one of the best offensive teams in the league, rivaled only Pittsburgh and Vancouver when it comes to offensive talent. This year was no different as Chicago had the 2nd-best offense in the NHL and got outstanding play from Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, great passing from people like defenseman Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa was again a solid offensive player.

But the defense has been even better. Corey Crawford was the sixth-best goalie in the NHL in terms of save percentage and the defense overall was in the top five when it came to limiting the shots against him. Combined, those two elements produced the #1 defense in the NHL. Instead of being a flashy regular season team, Chicago is now built for a deep playoff run—if only Crawford can keep it going when the pressure is highest.

Minnesota had a nice season in getting into the playoffs, thanks primarily to quality team defense that keeps offenses from getting a lot of shots. But they don’t have good goaltending, and while there’s a number of decent offensive players, there isn’t anyone outside Zach Parise that I would call really good. At the very least Parise has a lot of playoff experience, as a key component of New Jersey’s run to the Finals last season.

There’s little chance of an upset in this series, and even less if the Wild’s Jason Pominville, perhaps their second-best scorer, isn’t cleared after a concussion. I’ll take Chicago in a sweep.

ST. LOUIS-LA KINGS

St. Louis came through a lot of injuries this year and some disappointing goaltending, but the Blues survived thanks to the good coaching work of Ken Hitchcock, and some excellent overall team defense. St. Louis is the second-best team in the NHL at keeping you from getting a shot off and that carried them to a strong finish and the #4 seed in the West.

Los Angeles rode to the Stanley Cup last year because goalie Jonathan Quick was untouchable and a lot of players stepped up with unexpected offensive contributions. The offense has gotten a good carryover into this season. The Kings are 10th in the NHL in scoring, and have gotten great years from Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar, along with a nice season from Dustin Brown. This is a unit that’s going to provide a  challenge for the St. Louis defense and if Blues’ goalie Brian Elliot doesn’t turn his own disappointing year, Los Angeles can turn this series into an offensive style that St. Louis does not want.

But let’s return to Quick. His save rate of 90.2% was abysmal, and while Los Angeles still finished seventh in the league defensively, it’s primarily because of the ability of the personnel in front of Quick to limit shots.

I’m torn on this series, as befits a 4-5 matchup. Both teams move the puck well, getting good passing from the defensemen. In the end, I’m going to take Los Angeles in a seven-game series. While Quick turning things around would make it an easy pick, the pressure is really on Elliot because the Kings have more weapons to win an offense-oriented series.

VANCOUVER-SAN JOSE

Vancouver pulled the plug on Olympian goaltender Roberto Luongo after playoff disappointments. Had the Canucks done this a year ago, their postseason might have been different. It wasn’t until they were in a 3-0 series hole against Los Angeles in the first round that the change to Cory Schneider was made and he began playing well immediately. Luongo was also a train wreck in the ’11 Finals against Boston. Schneider got the job this year and his 92.7% save rate was #4 in the NHL.

Now we have to wonder if the Canuck offense is up to the task after finishing in the bottom half of the league in scoring. They did not get typical years from the Sedin brothers, Henrik and Daniel and Alex Burrows only had 13 goals. If this doesn’t change, it will put a lot of pressure on Schneider, because in spite of his excellence, Vancouver is not an elite defensive team, due to the fact that opponents have little difficulty getting shots against this finesse-oriented team.

San Jose didn’t play well offensively this year either, but their key players came through. Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture all came through, and the veteran Joe Thornton remains as good a passer as there is. This is a team that still got a lot of shots, even if the conversion rate wasn’t great, so if regular season form holds on both sides, Schneider will kept under pressure.

The Sharks’ team defense is no better than the Canucks, and their own goalie Antti Niemi, is underrated. He’s not far behind Schneider, ranking seventh in the NHL at stopping shots.

I think this shapes up as the most compelling of the first-round series. Can San Jose can continue a great run for sports in Northern California? They’ve already got the World Series title, a Super Bowl appearance, a Rose Bowl win and Golden State is poised to advance in the NBA playoffs. Or is this Vancouver’s time to make another big playoff run? As much as I like geographic stories, my gut tells me that the Canucks have good things ahead. I’ll take them to win a seven-game barnburner.

ANAHEIM-DETROIT

It went right to the bitter end, but one of the game’s proudest franchises in the Detroit Red Wings scraped into the playoffs. Now they have to cash in their second chance against an Anaheim team that lurked under the radar all year, as Chicago and Pittsburgh got headlines and then attention shifted to the  teams fighting for survival. Anaheim quietly grabbed the #2 spot in the West early and never let it go.

Defense is what saved Detroit, and goalie Jimmy Howard, after a somewhat pedestrian season, finished strong along with the team, getting up to 10th in save percentage among regular goalies. What the Wings have not gotten is any kind of offensive production. Pavel Datsyuk continued to do good work at center, and Niklas Kronwall was a good passer from the defenseman spot. Henrik Zetterberg is an outstanding passer. But there weren’t finishers. Datsyuk can fill that role and the Red Wings should expect more from Daniel Cleary if they’re going to advance.

They have to do it against a team that’s very well-balanced. Befitting an under-the-radar team, Anaheim isn’t extraordinary at anything, but they’re solid at most everything. If we were to identify a signature strength it would be their ability to score in the power play, thanks to offensive talent like the versatile Corey Perry who can both pass and light the lamp, and Teemu Selanne. If we were to identify a weakness, it’s that while Anaheim does a good job with its opportunities, they don’t put a lot of pressure on an opposing goaltender.

That’s what I’m going to continue the underrating of Anaheim and pick Detroit in this series.  I believe Howard can step up and have a big series here, and while counterpart Viktor Fasth isn’t bad, he doesn’t strike me as one you should fear in the playoffs. Detroit does it in six.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The NHL re-seeds its bracket after the first round, unlike the NBA, so low plays high in the second round. Based on the picks I’ve made, that would create second round matchups of Chicago-Detroit and Vancouver-Los Angeles.