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Tom Crean

Indiana Finally Moves On From Tom Crean

I thought for sure Tom Crean would find a way to wangle another year out of Indiana University, but the Hoosiers mercifully cut the cord on this underachieving era, firing Crean after an NIT loss at Georgia Tech. A season that started with legitimate NCAA title hopes and even allowing for a key injury, should have still been top four in the Big Ten, ended in misery.

Crean has been the classic employee who usually does just enough to save his job. He had one big year in 2013, when his recruitment of Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo paid dividends in a Big Ten title and #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. After a couple underperforming years, Crean again found himself on the hot seat in 2016 and he again delivered a Big Ten title.

At a lot of power conference programs this is enough. Have a couple good teams in a 4-5 year cycle, and who knows, maybe you can sneak into one Final Four as a 3-seed, the way Crean’s 2003 Marquette team did. When you can recruit players like Dwayne Wade, Zeller and Oladipo, those things are possible.

But Indiana isn’t one of those places where this is good enough. And it shouldn’t be.

Crean survived this long—he coached from 2009-17—because he had the media in his back pocket perpetually blaming his predecessor for everything that went wrong. To hear Crean’s apologists tell it, the coach took over a program at the level of IU-Fort Wayne and ascended to the top of the Big Ten.

That was never the case. Indiana made the NCAA Tournament in 2008 under Kelvin Sampson and also contended for the conference championship deep into that season. The so-called “sanctions” the school was hit with for Sampson’s excessive phone calls in recruiting did not include any sort of postseason ban, or even the loss of a single scholarship.

Face it, if Sampson would have committed his violations at Kentucky or UCLA, he’d probably be complimented for good behavior. Indiana has long held itself to a higher standard and wanted more.

Crean was hired and immediately tore the program down, dismissing players and starting from scratch. Set aside for a moment, whether it’s appropriate for a college head coach to do the sort of hard-nosed business-like rebuilding that’s usually reserved for the pros. Instead just ask yourself this—why does Crean get extra credit for bringing the program back from the ashes, when he’s the one who voluntarily started the fire to begin with?

The media never asked those questions. They ignored the fact that Crean took the flagship program of a basketball-crazy state and has managed to consistently be inferior to Purdue, Notre Dame and Butler in the course of his tenure. And that IU-Fort Wayne reference I made above—Crean lost to them this year too.

At least the fans never stopped asking the questions Crean’s courtier press refused to delve into. And at least the school finally responded to public demand. Purdue and Butler may be on their way to the Sweet 16. Notre Dame may have won another NCAA Tournament game this past weekend. But Indiana University basketball fans have as much reason as any to be happy this March.

It's Time For Tom Crean To Be On The Hot Seat

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The impression of Indiana Hoosiers basketball coach Tom Crean is that of one who brought a traditional power back to life after it had been down and restored it to, if not greatness, at least respectability. I disagree with that view and believe that Crean should be coaching for his job as Big Ten play gets set to open up this week.

Let’s put Crean’s tenure in Bloomington in context. He took over after the program prior to the 2009 season, after it had been put on NCAA probation for three years. Crean’s first three seasons were miserable, with a record of 8-46 in conference games. In the first year, his roster had nine freshman and two sophomores. It’s that which gives rise to the media impression of “starting at rock bottom.”
In 2012, things began to turn for the better, and Indiana had a pretty good year, getting back to the NCAA Tournament after a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten. One year later, Crean hit the jackpot with Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller. Indiana went 14-4 in the Big Ten, won the outright conference title for the first time since 1993 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, before falling in the Sweet 16.
Last year was a step back, finishing 7-9 in league games, barely over .500 overall and out of the NCAAs. This year is still up in the air—there have been some nice wins over Butler and Pitt, an aggravating loss to Georgetown, an inexplicable upset at the hands of Eastern Washington and a very understandable defeat to Louisville.

Now let’s review what basketball life in Bloomington was in the years immediately before Crean’s arrival. Mike Davis, the successor to Bob Knight, was universally panned by most observers, myself included. In his final year of 2006, his team went 9-7 in the Big Ten and reached the NCAA Tournament. Davis resigned under pressure and Kelvin Sampson was hired.
Sampson made the NCAA Tournament in both 2007 and 2007, and averaged 12 Big Ten wins per year, even though one of those seasons was still just a 16-game league schedule, before the conference expanded to 18. But Sampson violated NCAA rules regarding how many phone calls can be made to recruits. He was fired and the program got the aforementioned probation.
One thing we have to note about the probation though, is that it was toothless. There was no loss of scholarships. There was no ban from postseason play. There was no loss of TV exposure. It was nothing more than saying “Behave yourself for three years.” When Crean was hired, he decided to clean house, and bring in his own recruits, resulting in the young roster.
There are undoubtedly a lot of different views regarding Tom Crean, but to borrow the words of Kevin Bacon in A Few Good Men, these are the facts of the case. And they are not in dispute.

Now I want you to consider this entire context, of Crean’s entire track record and where the program was when he was hired. How does taking over a program that went to the NCAA Tournament three straight years constitute taking something over that’s at rock bottom? If Crean wanted to clean house and bring his own kids in that’s his prerogative. But why does he get extra credit for it? Indiana bottomed out, because Crean felt it was best for the long haul.
Has it been? Crean has only won 12 conference games in a season in the big year of 2013. I use 12 as a benchmark since it represents winning two-thirds of your games and seems to be what a program with national aspirations should aspire to (and in truth, I think that’s pretty a minimal baseline). Even if you make the extraordinarily generous concession of throwing out his first three years, and only use 2012-14, he’s still only averaging 10.6 league wins per year. In other words, he’s barely over .500 amongst his peers at one of the Big Ten’s most tradition-laden programs.
Whether or not you think that’s good enough will, in large part depend on your view of what Indiana is in the broader scheme of college basketball. I spent three years in school there and was a big Bob Knight fan. Though I’m not an alum nor a part of the fan base, I still think of Indiana as a place that should aspire to be in the national elite. Much like Penn State football, they might not always be there, but the natural recruiting base in an ideal state is always there.
Even if you disagree with that, can you disagree that Indiana should certainly aspire to match or exceed what Wisconsin does in basketball? Even if national championships don’t come, is it unreasonable to think that one should make the NCAA Tournament every year, rather than two out of six, as Crean has done? Or even two of three, as he’s currently done? I don’t think so.
I’m not suggesting that Tom Crean is some awful coach, and Indiana would certainly need to have a backup plan in place. That backup plan should be a coach who’s not only a slam dunk hire, but is immediately perceived as such by outsiders. Let’s use Brad Stevens, formerly of Butler and currently with the Boston Celtics, as an example. If Indiana can get him—or someone of similar cache—they simply have to do it. If they can’t, then bite the bullet and live with Crean’s mediocrity until the right coach comes along.
But let’s not be in denial anymore about what Tom Crean is. He’s a mediocre coach who recruits just well enough to have the occasional good year. At a lot of places that can be good enough. Indiana shouldn’t be one of them.

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Indiana Basketball Still Has Question Marks

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Before the Harbaugh brothers kick it off in the Super Bowl, the Harbaugh sister gets a little bit of the national spotlight on Saturday night. Joanie Harbaugh is married to Tom Crean, the head basketball coach at Indiana, and the third-ranked Hoosiers will host #1 Michigan in a battle atop the Big Ten in prime time (9 PM ET, ESPN). My guess is that Joanie will get more camera time than normal on this weekend. Here at TheSportsNotebook we’re going to take a deeper look at Indiana basketball, and see if Crean can continue this extended family’s amazing coaching run.

Indiana is built around the talents of sophomore center Cody Zeller. The 7-footer averages 16 points/8 rebounds per game. If you think you’re going to collapse down on him defensively, think again. There are three-point shooter arrayed about, starting with senior point guard Jordan Hulls who hits a sizzling 48 percent from behind the arc. Christian Watford is a forward who can both rebound, as well as step out and hit from downtown. Victor Oladipo shoots the trey more selectively, but he can still bury it if a defender decides to sag off and stop his great skill in going off the dribble. Then you can mix in freshman guard Yogi Ferrell and junior forward Will Sheehey, and there’s really no way Indiana can’t beat you on the offensive end.

But a program whose greatest moments came under Bob Knight surely understands the importance of defense, and here is where some red flags have to go up. There are four signature games Indiana has played so far—wins over Minnesota and Michigan State, along with losses to Butler and Wisconsin. The common trend is that all four opponents have shot 45 percent or better from the floor. Indiana was able to get the two wins, plus take Butler to overtime because they enjoyed pronounced advantages in getting to the free throw line. When the free-throw scoring edge disappeared against Wisconsin, the Hoosiers lost a not-as-close-as-it-sounds 64-59 decision on their home floor.

Is it really a sign of impending greatness when your formula against good times seems to rely on shooting twice as many free throws? You can argue that this will sustain itself—to go back to the Knight era, Indiana usually enjoyed big edges at the charity stripe under the legendary coach. But the free throw advantage has been evident in home games, and the one case it wasn’t—Wisconsin—was against a team that played a disciplined style, not conducive to drawing fouls against.

Thus, am I being unreasonable in suggesting that Indiana hasn’t done anything to suggest they could win a sequence of games against highly ranked, well-coached teams on a neutral floor—which is kind of the definition of what winning the NCAA Tournament requires? I don’t think I am.

Lest Indiana fans think I’m being too tough, let me bring out a few other points. The first and most obvious is this—they’re 19-2, and I do think it would be unreasonable to expect any better. My concern is more in what I see as some underlying problems. Indiana’s toughest games are also ahead of them. After Saturday night, they go immediately to Illinois and Ohio State. Further down the line, there are road games with Michigan State and Minnesota and a season finale in Ann Arbor. If Indiana wins more of these than they lose, than the questions are answered.

I opened the season with grave doubts about Indiana as the #1 team in the country. I thought they were good and I still think they’re good. They’ve shown a consistency that at least suggests they could make a Final Four run if they get a little break in the bracket along the way. But if you want to say they’re a top-level team that could win 2-3 games in a row against the national elite on a neutral floor, I’m not seeing any evidence of that. Maybe I will in the month of February, but the Hoosiers aren’t there yet.

MICHIGAN PROVES ITSELF

At the start of the season I also had doubts about Michigan as a top-level team. Those doubts are gone now. Michigan’s got a much more impressive resume of wins than does Indiana—beating N.C. State, Pitt and Kansas State in non-conference, getting a big conference road win at Minnesota and the Wolverines’ one loss was a good road game at Ohio State. I’m not saying this means Michigan will win on Saturday night—frankly, I don’t expect them to. But we know UM can play well on the road and I would expect them to be in position to play for the Big Ten title in that season finale at home against Indiana.

My doubts about Michigan were rooted in wondering if freshman forward Glenn Robinson III would be up to speed immediately—I know it happens a lot in college ball these days, but I don’t know that we should assume it. And an even bigger doubt was the lack of proven three-point shooting. Robinson is averaging 12 points/6 rebounds a game, and the veteran guards, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke have stepped it up from behind the arc. Hardaway is hitting 41 percent, Burke’s hitting 37 percent and the Wolverines still have the ability to beat you off the dribble. The question marks are now exclamation points.

The 2003 Marquette Golden Eagles & The Unveiling Of Dwayne Wade

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Marquette had been a proud basketball team in the age of Al McGuire back in the 1970s, culminating with a national championship in 1977. The program remained competitive under Hank Raymonds in the years following, but otherwise began a gradual descent, as they looked to find a new identity, as independents went out of fashion and programs like Marquette scrambled to find a home. In 2003 they finally made another big national splash, a season that doubled as the national unveiling of future NBA star Dwayne Wade.

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Wade had emerged in his sophomore season of 2002, averaging 18 points/7 rebounds/3 assists per game. The Golden Eagles won 26 games and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time under second-year coach Tom Crean, but a heartbreaking two-point loss to Tulsa knocked them out in the opening round. Marquette had been a #5 seed and was hoping for a chance to play Kentucky in the second round, a game that would give them the kind of national prominence Crean and Wade were building toward. That would have to wait.

The 2003 Marquette Golden Eagles had more than just Wade. Robert Jackson averaged 15 points per game and at 6’10” was a quality rebounder underneath. To a lesser extent, the same was true of 6’10” Scott Merrill. MU got quality three-point shooting from guard Travis Diener.

And even though Steve Novak didn’t play a lot off the bench, he could also hit from long range, connecting on 51 percent of his three-point shots. Novak managed to turn that gig into a nice NBA career, as he still fulfills the same role for the New York Knicks today.

Marquette was ranked 19th to start the season, and started 8-1 with only a two-point defeat to Notre Dame. The Golden Eagles beat their other traditional non-conference rival, with a 63-54 home win over Wisconsin. A hiccup right around the New Year, where MU lost to East Carolina and Dayton knocked Wade’s team to the fringe of the Top 25, but it was there they bottomed out and from early January to March, Marquette was coming on strong.

They’d reached #11 in the polls by the first part of February and made the national Top 10 later that month. Marquette was then in Conference USA, with its acceptance to the Big East still three years off, and they racked up two wins over the league’s traditional power in Cincinnati. It paved the way to a C-USA title, a 23-5 regular season record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Wade made first-team All-American and was well thought of by NBA scouts as the draft approached. Wade was only a junior, but it seemed likely he would leave. The teams with high picks were looking for talent after the consensus first choice, a high school kid out of Ohio whose future would one day be linked directly to Wade’s—that kid being LeBron James.

As special as the 2003 team is for Marquette fans, their NCAA dream nearly got derailed before it even began. They matched up with fellow Jesuit school Holy Cross and barely escaped with a 72-68 win. Then Missouri gave the Golden Eagles everything they could handle, with MU finally surviving in overtime 101-92. They left Indianapolis still breathing and now would head further north up the I-94 corridor to the regionals in the Midwest.

A lot of people from Wisconsin would make the trip, as the Badgers were in the same regional, giving the locals hope for a state rivalry showdown for the Final Four on Saturday. But that would necessitate two upsets. Marquette was set to play second-seeded Pitt. And Wisconsin had to deal with #1 seed Kentucky, again opposite the Golden Eagles in the tournament bracket.

Pitt was a tough physical team. This writer was living in Pittsburgh at the time and hope was high the physical defense coached by Ben Howland, combined with the excellent work of guard Brandin Knight, could get the Panthers to the Final Four. But Wade knocked down 22 points, Merritt scored 17 and in a well-played game that was tight throughout, Marquette pulled out a 77-74 win. Earlier in the night, Kentucky had held off Wisconsin.

The regional final on Saturday afternoon might not have been the state showdown locals were hoping for, but Marquette was ready for national prominence. Kentucky joined Arizona as the top-heavy favorites to win the championship, but there was concern in Big Blue Nation over their relatively sluggish performance against Wisconsin and the ankle injury sustained by guard Keith Bogans.

Bogans would play and score 15 points, though his overall effectiveness was likely compromised. In reality, the perspective of history makes it look silly that the health of Bogans was considered so crucial when Dwayne Wade was on the floor. The Marquette star was nothing short of dazzling, scoring 29 points, dishing 11 assists and grabbing 11 rebounds. It was a Magic Johnson-esque performance against one of the nation’s most storied programs and to the shock of everyone, Marquette not only competed, but it was a rout. They led 45-26 at halftime and the 83-69 final is actually deceptively close.

It was the final win of the season, as Marquette showed up flat against Kansas in the Final Four and were absolutely destroyed, 94-61. While the nature of the loss left a sour taste, Crean had brought the Golden Eagle program back to national prominence. And in the process, the career of Dwayne Wade—one that would lead him to key one NBA championship for Miami in 2006 and be the sidekick to LeBron on another in 2012—was showcased for the nation.

The Big Ten Middle: Michigan, Wisconsin & Indiana

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In the Big Ten’s race for the NCAA Tournament, three times fall in the Forgotten Middle Class. At the top you have likely conference champ Michigan State and Ohio State, still with an outside shot at a co-championship. On the bubble, you have Purdue and Northwestern, and if you’re feeling generous, Illinois and Minnesota. But situated in the middle are solid basketball teams in Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana, all currently projected as top 16 teams nationally by ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi. Just as TheSportsNotebook looked at the Big East’s forgotten middle yesterday, we continue our election-year pitch to the middle class by examining the Big Ten’s Middle Three.

Michigan (21-8, 11-5, projected #3 seed): The Wolverines suffered a disappointing home loss to Purdue over the weekend that ended their dark horse bid for the Big Ten title, but that’s the only loss they’ve taken since February 5 when they fell at Michigan State. John Beilein’s team has been ruthless on its home floor, beating all the contenders—Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Indiana—in the friendly confines of Ann Arbor. UM has a non-conference win over Memphis, and it’s only losses outside the conference are to Duke and Virginia.

Michigan does it with a lot of finesse, as no player in its top six goes over 6’9” and none average more than six rebounds a game. But the backcourt trio of Trey Burke, Zack Novak and Tim Hardaway Jr. combines for 38 ppg. Novak can hit the three-ball, as can sophomore forward Evan Smotrycz. In the games ahead in the conference tournament at Indianapolis and then in the NCAA Tournament, shot selection will be at a premium. Hardaway is not a good three-point shooter (though he is effective inside the arc) and Burke is mediocre. The Wolverines cannot have shooters other than Novak and Smotrycz getting carried away from long range, particularly given they’re not likely to be rebounding the misses. Given the importance of Novak’s playmaking to the offense, it’s also going to be important for other scorers to step up—Hardaway off the dribble and Smotrycz stepping out are the best guesses.

Beilein deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done with this group. It’s got the talent to be a decent team, but not one that would be a legitimate contender in a league that grades out as America’s best in the RPI. When TheSportsNotebook hands out conference Player and Coach of the Year honors next week, Beilein will certainly be a part of that discussion.

Wisconsin (21-8, 10-6, projected #4 seed): Bo Ryan is always part of the discussion when it comes to Big Ten Coach Of The Year, or at least he should be. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, the Badgers got big non-conference wins over UNLV & BYU, both of whom look NCAA bound. The only December losses were to Marquette, and a competitive one at North Carolina that was probably more impressive than any of the wins. Big Ten play started slowly at 1-3, but Wisconsin has won nine of its last twelve, including road wins at Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois and most recently at Ohio State on Sunday.

Jordan Taylor is easily this team’s best player, although his 14 points/4 rebounds/4 assists stat line does have to be considered somewhat of a disappointment, as does his mediocre 34 percent shooting from behind the arc. The positive is that Wisconsin fans—a group that includes this writer—can hope that means Taylor can lift his game in the big moments ahead. Ryan Evans is averaging 11 ppg at small forward, although no player in American has a greater capacity to first make a brilliant drive to the hoop and then slam the shot off the backboard with velocity this state normally only sees from Aaron Rodgers or Yovani Gallardo. The top post player is Jared Berggen, only the 6’10” junior is at his best when he circles out to shoot the three-ball. Josh Gasser’s point totals don’t blow you away, but he is the best Ryan has from behind the arc.

As is the case with Ryan’s teams, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and defense is a core part of Wisconsin’s success. The conference tournament has been a disappointment for UW since they won it in 2008 and the head coach is hungry to make his first Final Four. If a run in Indy or in the NCAAs is going to happen, Taylor needs to have a couple “hop on my back and I’ll carry you” kind of games.

Indiana (22-7, 9-7, projected #4 seed): IU is the one team of this group that might have already peaked. They went 12-0 in December, including being the only team to beat Kentucky, plus knocking off Notre Dame, N.C. State and Butler. Since a 3-1 start to Big Ten play, they’ve split their last twelve, including losses at Nebraska and Iowa. A home win at Illinois came after the Illini meltdown of February, but they do have solid road wins at Purdue and a big 69-50 win at Minnesota this past weekend was one of the best showings Tom Crean has seen from his team lately.

If Indiana rediscovers its mojo, they have the most balanced lineup of the three teams under review here today. Cody Zeller, the 6’11” freshman is perhaps the third-best pure post player in the entire conference, trailing only Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger and Michigan State’s Draymond Green. Jordan Hulls, the little 6’0” guard scores 11 ppg and hits 48 percent from behind the arc. Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo provide reliable scoring at the forward spots and Watford can hit the three-ball—the buzzer-beater he hit to nail Kentucky was no fluke, but a regular part of his offensive repertoire. Off the bench Will Sheehy can drain the trey.

Therefore Crean has a nice combination of an inside post presence coupled with good three-point shooting that can keep you competitive with anyone, with the Kentucky game—along with a win over Ohio State—to back it up. What the coach needs to do is ban Oladipo or guard Verdell Jones from even considering shooting the trey. Both are under 30 percent and both attempt too many. If Indiana plays to its significant strengths they can close the season strong, starting with a home game against Michigan State tonight (7 PM ET, ESPN), continuing with a home game against Purdue and onto postseason play.

For all three of these teams, winning the conference tournament next week should be seen as an important goal. None are going to win the Big Ten title. While all three are decent darkhorses to make the Final Four, it would undeniably take a few doses of luck for that to happen. The best chance for Michigan, Wisconsin or Indiana to punctuate solid seasons with some real championship hardware is next week at Indianapolis’ Conseco Field House.

Big Ten Hoops Overview: Indiana Emerging

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Conference play in college basketball starts in earnest for several conferences this week, and perhaps no contender in a BCS league is as unlikely a contender as Indiana. The Hoosiers are 12-0 with an impressive win over Kentucky on the resume, along with respectable wins against Butler, N.C. State and Notre Dame. Whether you’re a doubter or a believer in Tom Crean’s resurgent program in Bloomington, you won’t have to wait long for answers as to how they’ll fare in the Big Ten. They open up with games at Michigan State on Wednesday and then on New Year’s Eve against Ohio State.

The key to Indiana’s turnaround is the arrival of freshman center Cory Zeller, and there’s two solid swingman in Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey to score and hit the boards. Christian Watford is a big man who can step outside and hit the three—he nailed the game-winner against Kentucky—and Jordan Hulls is a respectable floor leader. There’s no obvious weak point on this team, and the Hoosiers are as good a choice as any to emerge out of a crowded middle class to challenge Ohio State, the #2 team in the country and clear conference frontrunner.

Ohio State is built around sophomore standout Jared Sullinger at power forward, who can score in the post and facing the basket, and is one of the best players in the nation. Thad Matta has to be pleased with the play of fellow forward DeShaun Thomas who’s done a good job in going to the glass and providing some scoring help. Aaron Craft has ably handled his promotion from reliable sixth man to regular point guard and William Buford loosens up defenses. Ohio State has wins over Florida and Duke to their credit.

Here’s a brief look at how the rest of the conference shapes up…

THE REST OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

All of these teams have the expectation of making the NCAA Tournament, and all are credible picks to be ahead of Indiana in the race for top challenger to Ohio State…

*Wisconsin: Jordan Taylor’s is the league’s best guard, even if his December shooting has been off. Bo Ryan has found a reliable post player in Jared Berrgen and is getting consistent rebounding from Josh Gasser, Mike Brusewitz and Ryan Evans. When you add in the emergence of Ben Brust as Taylor’s running mate, you’ve got all the makings of another well-coached Wisconsin basketball team that survives on the road and is murder at home.

*Michigan State: Tom Izzo always gets his teams to rebound and this year is no different. Draymond Green’s production, both scoring and on the boards was expected. Izzo found him some help with the efforts of Branden Dawson, Adreian Page and Derrick Nix, and there’s a steady hand in the backcourt with Keith Appling. The Spartans have a great opportunity on Wednesday against Indiana to communicate that no changing of the guard is at hand.

*Illinois: Bruce Weber gets a lot of heat, but he’s got a good team coming together in Champaign. Meyers Leonard is solid at center, while Brandon Paul runs the show and D.J. Richardson provides scoring from the two-guard spot. Paul needs to shoot better, particularly from the foul line or Illinois will lose enough close games to break fans’ hearts.

*Michigan: John Belein has a well-balanced backcourt with Trey Burke distributing and Tim Hardaway Jr. scoring. Evan Smotrycz, a 6’9” sophomore has steadied the post, although he could use a little more help if the Wolverines are going to elevate to the top of this group.

THE DARK HORSES

*This is supposed to be Northwestern’s year to finally make the NCAA Tournament and it’s  still too early to tell. Wins over Tulsa, Seton Hall and Georgia Tech don’t reveal much more than that the Wildcats aren’t terrible. Losses to Baylor and Creighton are no embarrassment. The upside is that John Shurna is finally rebounding to go along with his scoring. The downside is that no adequate replacement for Michael Thompson at the point has really stepped it up.

*Purdue’s rebuilding, as losses to Alabama and Butler attest, but with a developing backcourt of Ryne Smith and Jackson Lewis to go with a healthy Robbie Hummel, don’t sleep on Matt Painter’s team. Most major conferences have a team that really finds its form around late January and surges to the bubble of the Big Dance. The well-coached Boilers are a strong candidate to do that here.

*Honorable mention as a dark horse goes to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are another well-coached team with Tubby Smith, but the season-ending knee injury to power forward Trevor Mbkawe, easily the team’s best player is going to make 2012 a long tough road for Tubby.

BRINGING UP THE REAR

*Nebraska isn’t going dancing come March, but with a solid senior point guard in Bo Spence, who can both score and dish, the Cornhuskers can make any individual matchup interesting, especially at home. They need more rebounding from Jorge-Brian Diaz if they’re going to translate “interesting” into wins.

*Say this for Penn State—they might not be deep, but they’ve started churning out some of the best all-around guards in the conference. After four years of the dynamic Talor Battle, the league’s best player over his tenure, it’s now Tim Frazier who scores, dishes and also rebounds, even at 6’1”. He’ll make the Lions entertaining, but there’s no supporting cast.

*Iowa has some respectable wing players with Matt Gatens and Roy Devyn Marble—the latter the son of the explosive small forward who was vital to Iowa’s 1987 push to within a basket of the Final Four and a decent rebounder in Melsahn Basabe, but there’s no depth and no floor leader, meaning a lot of losses are ahead.

Conference play in college basketball starts in earnest for several conferences this week, and perhaps no contender in a BCS league is as unlikely a contender as Indiana. The Hoosiers are 12-0 with an impressive win over Kentucky on the resume, along with respectable wins against Butler, N.C. State and Notre Dame. Whether you’re a doubter or a believer in Tom Crean’s resurgent program in Bloomington, you won’t have to wait long for answers as to how they’ll fare in the Big Ten. They open up with games at Michigan State on Wednesday and then on New Year’s Eve against Ohio State.

The key to Indiana’s turnaround is the arrival of freshman center Cory Zeller, and there’s two solid swingman in Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey to score and hit the boards. Christian Watford is a big man who can step outside and hit the three—he nailed the game-winner against Kentucky—and Jordan Hulls is a respectable floor leader. There’s no obvious weak point on this team, and the Hoosiers are as good a choice as any to emerge out of a crowded middle class to challenge Ohio State, the #2 team in the country and clear conference frontrunner.

Ohio State is built around sophomore standout Jared Sullinger at power forward, who can score in the post and facing the basket, and is one of the best players in the nation. Thad Matta has to be pleased with the play of fellow forward DeShaun Thomas who’s done a good job in going to the glass and providing some scoring help. Aaron Craft has ably handled his promotion from reliable sixth man to regular point guard and William Buford loosens up defenses. Ohio State has wins over Florida and Duke to their credit.

Here’s a brief look at how the rest of the conference shapes up…

THE REST OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

All of these teams have the expectation of making the NCAA Tournament, and all are credible picks to be ahead of Indiana in the race for top challenger to Ohio State…

*Wisconsin: Jordan Taylor’s is the league’s best guard, even if his December shooting has been off. Bo Ryan has found a reliable post player in Jared Berrgen and is getting consistent rebounding from Josh Gasser, Mike Brusewitz and Ryan Evans. When you add in the emergence of Ben Brust as Taylor’s running mate, you’ve got all the makings of another well-coached Wisconsin basketball team that survives on the road and is murder at home.

*Michigan State: Tom Izzo always gets his teams to rebound and this year is no different. Draymond Green’s production, both scoring and on the boards was expected. Izzo found him some help with the efforts of Branden Dawson, Adreian Page and Derrick Nix, and there’s a steady hand in the backcourt with Keith Appling. The Spartans have a great opportunity on Wednesday against Indiana to communicate that no changing of the guard is at hand.

*Illinois: Bruce Weber gets a lot of heat, but he’s got a good team coming together in Champaign. Meyers Leonard is solid at center, while Brandon Paul runs the show and D.J. Richardson provides scoring from the two-guard spot. Paul needs to shoot better, particularly from the foul line or Illinois will lose enough close games to break fans’ hearts.

*Michigan: John Belein has a well-balanced backcourt with Trey Burke distributing and Tim Hardaway Jr. scoring. Evan Smotrycz, a 6’9” sophomore has steadied the post, although he could use a little more help if the Wolverines are going to elevate to the top of this group.

THE DARK HORSES

*This is supposed to be Northwestern’s year to finally make the NCAA Tournament and it’s  still too early to tell. Wins over Tulsa, Seton Hall and Georgia Tech don’t reveal much more than that the Wildcats aren’t terrible. Losses to Baylor and Creighton are no embarrassment. The upside is that John Shurna is finally rebounding to go along with his scoring. The downside is that no adequate replacement for Michael Thompson at the point has really stepped it up.

*Purdue’s rebuilding, as losses to Alabama and Butler attest, but with a developing backcourt of Ryne Smith and Jackson Lewis to go with a healthy Robbie Hummel, don’t sleep on Matt Painter’s team. Most major conferences have a team that really finds its form around late January and surges to the bubble of the Big Dance. The well-coached Boilers are a strong candidate to do that here.

*Honorable mention as a dark horse goes to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are another well-coached team with Tubby Smith, but the season-ending knee injury to power forward Trevor Mbkawe, easily the team’s best player is going to make 2012 a long tough road for Tubby.

BRINGING UP THE REAR

*Nebraska isn’t going dancing come March, but with a solid senior point guard in Bo Spence, who can both score and dish, the Cornhuskers can make any individual matchup interesting, especially at home. They need more rebounding from Jorge-Brian Diaz if they’re going to translate “interesting” into wins.

*Say this for Penn State—they might not be deep, but they’ve started churning out some of the best all-around guards in the conference. After four years of the dynamic Talor Battle, the league’s best player over his tenure, it’s now Tim Frazier who scores, dishes and also rebounds, even at 6’1”. He’ll make the Lions entertaining, but there’s no supporting cast.

*Iowa has some respectable wing players with Matt Gatens and Roy Devyn Marble—the latter the son of the explosive small forward who was vital to Iowa’s 1987 push to within a basket of the Final Four and a decent rebounder in Melsahn Basabe, but there’s no depth and no floor leader, meaning a lot of losses are ahead.