Menu

Todd Pletcher

Road To The Triple Crown: 3 Big Races Coast-To-Coast

, , , , , , ,

We’ve counting down the Road To The Triple Crown here at TheSportsNotebook since January, with previews of all the biggest Derby Prep races. Now the Kentucky Derby is just a month away and the last really big day of prep race action goes Saturday. And what a day it is, with three big races going across the country, at New York, California and Illinois. TheSportsNotebook previews all three…

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, NY  5:15 PM ET): A million-dollar purse is on the line as part of a big day overall in New York racing. The eight-horse Wood Memorial has three horses that have emerged as betting line favorites and those are Gemologist (8-5), Alpha (5-2) and Street Life (4-1). Gemologist’s resume is thin, but impressive—a win in a Churchill Downs stakes race last November and a tuneup win at Gulfstream Park in Florida a couple weeks ago. The connections are even more impressive, with trainer Todd Pletcher in charge and jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. The minimal action Gemologist has seen—along with the short odds—suggest clearly that Pletcher is pointing the horse to this race and has essentially babied him the way a manager might take a Cy Young-caliber pitcher out after six innings to preserve him for the postseason. Now we find out if Gemologist is up to the task.

Alpha has scores big victories here at Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes, a prep race in its own right, and the Count Fleet Stakes. Furthermore, last fall at Belmont, he came in second in the high-quality Champagne Stakes (Belmont is where New York horses go in the fall, while Aqueduct has spring and winter meets). So this horse is clearly comfortable in New York, but an 11th-place finish at the Breeders Cup last November, while no shame, does suggest a problem in stepping up in class. The Wood Memorial isn’t the Breeders Cup, but it’s a tougher race than anything Alpha has faced thus far. Street Life has won his last two races here at Aqueduct, including a St. Patrick’s Day stakes race.

Both Alpha and Street Life are worthy challengers. If you’re a bettor who wants to go for a longer price, or an interested fan who wants to be alert to a big upset, two horses to watch would be Tiger Watch (15-1) and My Adonis (8-1). Tiger Watch is ridden by John Velazquez, one of the best in New York, and while no stakes races are on his resume, the horse has improved each of his last four starts. My Adonis came close in good stakes races here at Aqueduct and Gulfstream earlier in the year.

If it were up to me—and since I’m writing this column, I guess it is—I’d take a flyer on Tiger Watch to win and maybe hedge the bet by also taking lower odds for him to get in the top two.

Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita, CA, 5:30 PM ET): This race goes ahead of the one in Illinois because the SoCal track has scheduled it in the middle of the card, while the other two races are at the end. At this writing, odds are not yet posted, so I’m going to have to take my best guess at the favorites in the 10-horse field. I don’t think I’m taking any big chances in saying Creative Cause will be a factor, with a long record of success in stakes races here at Santa Anita, Del Mar (late-summer stop in SoCal) and Churchill Downs. Creative Cause has consistently run on the board and grabbed a 1-2-3 spot in the biggest races.   I’ll Have Another won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a Derby prep race at this same locale earlier this year. I have to think these two horses will be the favorites, and if you get anything better than 4-1, they’d be a quality bet.

The intriguing horse in this field is Paynter. There is nothing in the horse’s resume that suggest he’s ready to compete at this level. Yes, he won an off-Broadway race here in February. There’s up to nine races a day four days a week—you do the math and what kind of company that puts him in. But the trainer is Bob Baffert, one of the West’s best. More intriguingly is that jockey Martin Garcia, a former Preakness Stakes winner, chose to ride this horse over others in the field he’s regularly aboard. What do Martin and Baffert know? Another Baffert horse to watch is Liaison, ridden by another high-quality jockey in Rafael Bejarano, with a couple stakes wins at nearby Hollywood Park under his belt. The problem is that Liaison’s been less successful since SoCal moved to the higher-quality racing at Santa Anita. Finally, keep an eye on Midnight Terrace, who finished third and first in stakes races at this track. There’s nothing spectacular there, but if you get odds of 10-1 or higher, he might be worth it.

Illinois Derby (Hawthorne, IL 6:46 PM ET): 17 horses are lined up to go in the Midwest and that makes this the closest approximation we’ll see to the field that the Kentucky Derby trots out (usually about 20). It’s worth noting that Kentucky Derby winners usually come at good odds—it’s tough for anyone to be too big a favorite in a field like this, and more importantly, a big field creates huge uncertainty, with anything from early jostling to greater difficulty in finding a rhythm all being bigger factors than normal. So let’s look at the four favorites, then target three solid longshots who could upset the applecart.

Currency Swap (4-1) is the current favorite and an unimpressive one at that. He got a stakes win at Saratoga and has only run once in 2012, a second-place finish. Saratoga’s a great meet in upstate New York every summer, but one stakes win does not a heavy favorite make. Our Entourage (9-2) is next in line and trained by Pletcher, but there’s nothing stakes-level in his previous record. Pretension (5-1) ran two stakes race in New York, winning neither and finishing in the money only once. Hakama (6-1) had his best showing at a stakes race at a minor track in Laurel, Maryland—where he finished second. Pardon me if I’m not overwhelmed by the caliber of the favorites.

When looking for a longshot I’m not going to pretend I’m some expert in monitoring workout patterns, though you can do that at equibase.com if you’re so inclined. I’m more interested in finding a jockey or trainer with a good record. Similar to looking for an NCAA Tournament darkhorse—you might like Florida at a #7 seed just because of the reputation of Billy Donovan. At Hawthorne Saturday, the equivalents thereof are Morgan’s Guerrilla (10-1), with the jockey/trainer team of Rosie Napravnik and Mike Maker, Saturday Launch (15-1) trained by former Belmont Stakes winner Ken McPeek, and Skyring (20-1) who was the legendary D. Wayne Lukas behind him.

To start with I’m probably giving Napravnik the benefit of the doubt in putting her in this company, but I am fascinated with the whole quest of her being the first woman jockey to win a Triple Crown race. The story’s fun, and her horse has won a couple no-name races. I’d dismiss this if we were talking about a favorite—not so if you can get odds like 10-1. Saturday Launch has been even more consistent, running in the money the last six times out. Again, none in big races. But it’s Skyring I find the most improving. Like the others, this horse hasn’t gone against elite company, but in his last three races he’s gone from fifth to second to first. An improving horse, a legendary trainer and a great price. Why not? If you check my section Bad Betting Advice, where I put all the bets I’d really make if I were in Las Vegas with a grand to   burn, I’m adding $10 to Skyring to finish in the top three.

Road To The Triple Crown: Four Derby Prep Races This Weekend

, , , , , , ,

The Road To The Triple Crown has three races Saturday that are mostly full fields and have the chance to offer some competitive racing, and then there’s one more race for dessert on Sunday. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at all four Kentucky Derby Prep races…

Action starts about 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, with the Tampa Bay Derby running slightly before that time and the Swale Stakes at southern Florida’s Gulfstream Park, going a few minutes later.

The Tampa Derby is a 12-horse race, but three look to have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field. Spring Hill Farm is the favorite at 5-2. While he’s only run two races in his career, neither one of them noteworthy, he’s come in first and second. With Todd Pletcher as his trainer and Javier Castellano as the jockey, this isn’t a favorite who looks ripe for a big upset. But horses who rate competitively on the morning line are Take Charge Indy at 3-1 and Battle Hardened at 9-2.

The former is ridden by Calvin Borel, who’s drawn national fame for three recent wins at the Kentucky Derby, but this particular horse needs to run stronger than what we’ve seen thus far.  There’s no significant wins. The positives are that he did run 5th at the Breeders Cup, and just the fact he was invited to Churchill Downs in November is reason enough to be impressed. And there was a second-place finish five weeks ago at Gulfstream. If you believe in the power of a name, maybe the week the Indianapolis Colts chose to release Peyton Manning bodes well for a horse named Take Charge Indy. The latter horse, Battle Hardened is ridden by Julian Leparoux and won the Sam Davis Stakes, another Derby Prep that was run at Tampa little more than a month ago.

If you want to talk longshot, I’d see the best option as being Cozzetti, because he’s got a good trainer in Dale Romans, but this is a mount that Leparoux gave up for the chance to stick with Battle Hardened, and the horse hasn’t impressed thus far. I think ultimately this is a race you either play the favorite or just randomly pull a name out of a hat. If you’re a hard-core bettor you might try taking Spring Hill Farm to win, but pairing up a longshot or two in the exacta and trifecta combos.

The Swale is a 10-horse field and the favorite is another horse Leparoux gave up. Ever So Lucky is priced at 5-2, but has an unknown jockey and only two career starts, both at Churchill Downs back in November. He obviously ran well in them or he wouldn’t be the favorite on Saturday, but a 1st and 2nd place finish in off-Broadway races over three months ago hardly make him a clear front-runner. If I’m betting this race (and in the interest of full disclosure I’m not), I see this as a chance to go for better odds.

Options include Trinniberg at 5-1, another horse who hasn’t run since November and had a mixed record when he did. The strengths to Trinniberg are that he has run against top horses, from the Breeders Cup to Saratoga. On Selection Sunday weekend in college hoops, let’s call Trinniberg the UConn of the field and give him props for schedule strength. Motor City, ridden by the pride of Maryland in Martin Prado hasn’t run since October 30, but did win a stakes race at Churchill Downs when he did. And Good Morning Diva has only run two races in his career, neither of them noteworthy, but finished third and first here at Gulfstream this year.

Looking over the options at the top of the Swale odds list, it looks like it might be ripe to go even deeper. One choice could be Silver Menace at 15-1, with a solid jockey in Ramon Dominguez. The only positive on the resume are a couple wins at Arlington Park in Chicago, and Dominguez is not the normal rider. The next option, and the one I like is Seve at 12-1. With the team of Kent Desormeaux in the saddle and Dale Romans as the trainer, Seve will get what he needs to run a good race, and while his nine-race career is marked by mediocrity, the last two races have seen him finish 1st and 2nd. While the races weren’t notable, that’s also the reason he’s at a good price. In a Swale that looks like anybody’s to take, I’d put my chips on Seve.

Shortly after 7:30 PM ET, will be the San Felipe Stakes from SoCal’s Santa Anita. A 10-horse race, this is another one that looks up for grabs, although unlike the Swale, it appears to be balance rooted in quality rather than mediocrity—the Big Ten Tournament rather than the Pac-12 Tournament if you will.

Creative Cause is the favorite, another front-runner at 5-2. The last five races this horse, ridden by top West Coast jockey Joel Rosario, has run have been stakes races. He’s been in the money every time, including two wins. That’s called a worthy favorite, but there’s some pretty worthy challengers.

Bob Baffert is as good a trainer as there is in the world and he’s the master of the SoCal circuit. Today his top horse is Bodemeister, who’s done well in a couple warmup races. I like his chances, but 3-1 seems like a short price for a horse that still has to prove himself in a really big race. Midnight Transfer offers a 6-1 price tag, has already won a stakes race at Santa Anita, and has two wins in three starts at this year’s meet. Empire Way finished second in the Robert Lewis Stakes, a Derby Prep held a few weeks ago at Santa Anita. Of these credible challengers I like Midnight Transfer the best.

Other possible horses are Blingo, who’s done poorly in previous stakes, but has one of the nation’s best jockeys in Mike Smith in the saddle, and gets 8-1 odds. If you really want to shoot the works, try another award-winning jockey in Garrett Gomez, who gets a 20-1 price. As for me, I’m staying with Midnight Transfer.

Sunday’s Palm Beach Stakes is pretty tame compared to the action on Saturday. There’s only six horses entered in the race at Gulfstream Park and of the top three, none go off at better than 3-1. The favorite is Howe Great (8-5) who’s got three straight wins on this track, including against stakes competition. Dullahan (2-1) has the Desormeaux/Romans tandem preparing him and ran a respectable fourth in the Breeders Cup. And Coalport (3-1) with Leparoux taking the mount ran poorly at Breeders and has yet to win a race since the calendar flipped to 2012. I’d just take the favorite and go with Howe Great.

Were I a betting man, rather than just one who talked a good game, I’d take half my bankroll and put it on Seve to win outright at Gulfstream, 40 percent on Midnight Transfer to finish in the money at Santa Anita, and 10 percent on Spring Hill Farm to finish in the top two. Then I’d start figuring out how to adjust my recreational budget after I lost them all.

Road To The Triple Crown: Risen Star & Fountain Of Youth Stakes

, , , , , , ,

The Road To The Triple Crown continues this weekend, with races on Saturday and Sunday. The stakes are quite literally getting higher as he close in on springtime. Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana has a purse of $300,000. And on Sunday a $400,000 jackpot is on the line at Gulfstream Park in Florida with the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. The SportsNotebook takes a look at both…

Risen Star Stakes (Sat, 5:55 PM ET, HRTV, TV-G): It’s an 11-horse field and the favorite is El Padrino, a horse with a good trainer/jockey combo of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher. The horse has the connections, but I’m not sure he has the resume (I’m really trying to avoid the use of the term “track record”, thus requiring the follow-up “no pun intended”) to win a race of this caliber. Padrino finished third at a stakes race in Aqueduct (NY) last November and his wins are in non-descript races. At minimum, this looks like a good spot to go against the favorite.

Fairgrounds hosted another Derby prep back on January 21, the Lecomte Stakes. It was previewed here at TheSportsNotebook and I managed to spill enough ink to get through the entire post and never even mention—forget pick, just mention—the winner. Mr. Bowling won the race and he’s a 4-1 shot in the Risen Star. With a victory in Delaware’s Dover Stakes, he’s good bet here on Saturday. The two other hoses who finished in the money in the Lecomte were Z Dager, who’s available at 5-1 and Shared Property at 6-1. Both horses have a win or two apiece in non-stakes races. Also at 4-1 is Mark Valeski (yes, the horse’s name, not a person), who’s ran three no-name races and won two. At a better price, he’d be worth a shot, but when you get a horse that’s already beaten stakes-caliber competition at this same track at the same 4-1 odds, you have to take him. That’s why I’m picking Mr. Bowling to win this race.

The horses I didn’t mention, but now have to so I avoid utter embarrassment in future posts are Adena’s Chance, Hero of Order, Afford, Ted’s Folly and Tizan’s Expense. You can get odds of anywhere from 8-1 to 30-1 on all of them. But none have a top jockey or trainer in the mix, and that’s what I like to see before taking a flier on a longshot.

Fountain Of Youth (Sat, 5:10 PM ET, HRTV, TV-G): Like Fairgrounds, this is the second of three Derby Preps that Gulfstream will host. The Holy Bull Stakes ran on January 29 and was won by Algorithm. That horse, trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano is a solid favorite in the eight-horse Fountain of Youth, going off at 8-5. Algorithm won two other races prior to the Holy Bull. The Florida circuit is one to watch when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, so another win by Algorithm moves him to the forefront of discussion of early Derby favorites and presumably makes him the odds-on favorite for the Florida Derby here at Gulfstream, the most prestigious of the prep races and considered a bellwether for Churchill Downs.

Castellano had quite the stable to pick from when it came to this race. He’s also the regular jockey for Union Rags (2-1) and Discreet Dancer (3-1) who are the top challengers and would have been the favorites in a lot of the prep races we’ve seen thus far. With Castellano having to give up the mounts to ride Algorithm, Julian Leparoux, with two prep wins under his belt will be on Union Rags. This horse is 3-for-4 in his career. Two of his wins are stakes races and the second-place finish was in the Breeders Cup. Aboard Discreeet Dancer will be John Velazquez, another top rider, who was able to get out of riding the more mediocre Casual Trick when this mount became available. Discreet Dancer has yet to run a stakes, but has won both starts of his career, while Casual Trick is 1-for-4.

The latter did finish second at the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year’s Day, so it’s possible Velazquez may end up regretting his decision to surrender the mount on a horse trained by New York powerhouse Nick Zito. Zito’s most recent triumph came with Drosselmeyer in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, and his horse Ice Box finished second in that year’s Kentucky Derby. Zito has had a great career, and I like him because he’s played a role in pushing for better treatment of the horses, something badly needed in a sport where win-at-all costs is the norm too often. At least athletes who use steroids are only abusing themselves. There’s something even more unseemly about doing it to an innocent and majestic horse.

If you want to try your hand at a longshot, News Pending is ridden by a solid jockey in Kent Desormeaux, as is Fort Loudon, with Rajiv Maragh. There’s a lot of quality in this race, so I can see the case for taking a longshot. But The Road To The Triple Crown needs an early frontrunner, and I think its Algorithm’s time to step up.

 

Road To The Triple Crown: Three Big Races On Saturday

, , , , ,

The Road To The Triple Crown picks up in intensity on Saturday, as three big Kentucky Derby prep races run at three different tracks, with contenders looking to pick up the earnings they need to qualify for the Derby on the first Saturday in May. Here’s a snapshot look at the three races, all of which are televised on both HRTV and TVG, the horse racing channels that are usually available  among the sports channels on your satellite or cable package…

Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, NY, 4:05 PM ET): Alpha is the solid even-money favorite in a seven-horse field. Ridden by Ramon Dominguez and trained by Kieran McLaughlin, Alpha’s got a team leading the way. His first appearance on the national stage was in a race for two-year olds at last year’s Breeders’ Cup and he finished 11th. But a showing in Aqueduct’s Count Fleet Stakes in early January was more representative of the competition he’ll face here, and he won that race. The principal challengers are King Kid (4-1), Hakama (5-1) and Tiger Walk (6-1). King Kid is new to the New York circuit, and finished third in the Gulfstream Derby down in Florida. Hakama’s been steady and consistent, in the money all four of his starts, but nothing to suggest he’s ready to win a race like this. And Tiger Walk has won his last two races, but those have come at Maryland’s Laurel Park, where the competition isn’t nearly as tough as what he’ll face on Saturday. If you’re looking for a  big longshot, a couple of name trainers are in the field. Todd Pletcher has How Do I Win at 10-1, and Richard Dutrow Jr. has a 10-1 of his own in Swag Daddy.

I’m not ready to go against the favorite here, not with Alpha’s strong recent showing, and the quality of his trainer and jockey.

Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Downs, 5:10 PM ET): There’s four horses are all priced fairly close together on the morning line. Reveron (3-1), Ecabroni (7-2), State Of Play (4-1) and Neck ‘N Neck (5-1) are the class of this 11-horse race. I like Ecabroni, trained by Pletcher and ridden by top New York jockey Javier Castellano. Neck ‘N Neck looks to be the pretender of this group, with a mostly mediocre showing, at least by the standards he’ll have to live up to on Saturday. The other two contenders offer some intrigue. Reveron has finished in the money five straight times and won three straight, although I’m not certain his connections can match up with the Pletcher/Castellano team behind Ecabroni. State Of Play tanked at the Breeders’ Cup, finishing 11th in a turf race for two-year olds, but he won a stakes race at Saratoga, the prestigious late summer meet in upstate New York that always draws good horses.

Beyond the main four, the only thing noteworthy I see in the bottom seven is the presence of quality jockey Julian Leparoux aboard Battle Hardened. The odds are 12-1 and the horse has run second his last two times out. If I were a bettor, I’d probably take out a ticket on this one. But to just pick the race on a blog like I’m doing here, I’ll stick with Ecabroni.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita, 6:05 PM ET): Our day of prep races ends on the SoCal circuit and the top trainer in this corner of the world is Bob Baffert, who has two entries  set to go. As of this writing, odds are not yet posted on Equibase.com, so I can’t really determine who the favorite is. I can say that when you have a horse like Liasion that’s trained by Baffert, ridden by Rafael Bejanaro—one of the top three jockeys in the West (along with Joel Rosario and Mike Smith) and won three straight races on this circuit, let’s say I have no problem in picking that horse to win. Baffert also has Sky Kingdom, who only has two wins in five starts. Other noteworthy names here are trainers Doug O’Neill and Jeff Mullins. O’Neill’s I’ll Have Another has regressed in recent races, while Mullins brings Chips All In, whose won 4 of 5, including a stakes race here back on New Year’s Eve. This is another one worth taking a look at if you’re a betting man, pending what the odds end up being. And Rosario is aboard Empire Way, a mediocre contender who’s run middle of the pack his last two races.

So I’m all in on Alpha, Ecabroni and Liasion to win these races, with a longshot ticket on Battle Hardened in the Sam Davis as the moneymaking shot, were I actually betting. The races run about an hour apart, so if you’re watching college basketball, they’re a good option to audible down to for some channel-surfing on Saturday.

Road To The Triple Crown Goes To Florida On Sunday

, , , , , , , ,

The Road To The Triple Crown continues here at TheSportsNotebook this weekend, as hopefuls for the Kentucky Derby show up in sunny Florida at Gulfstream Park for Sunday’s Holy Bull Stakes (4:45 PM ET). Unlike last week’s Lecomte Stakes, which got the road to Churchill Downs started in earnest, the Holy Bull won’t be a hotly contested race. While the Lecomte drew 13 entries, the Holy Bull has only 6, and that’s had the predictable depressive effect on the odds.

Hansen is the favorite, posted at 6-5 on the morning line. The favorite is ridden by Ramon Dominguez, a jockey whose enjoyed tremendous success riding on the New York circuit  and trained by Mike Maker, whose made his living on the SoCal trail. The two came together on this horse at last year’s Breeders’ Cup when Hansen won the BC Juvenile for two-year olds, and is now poised for what has a shot to be a ticket to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

The favorite will be challenged by the brothers, Algorithms (5-2) and Consortium (3-1). Both were sired by Bernardini, winner of the 2006 Preakness Stakes, so in a sport where lineage is revered even more than in Elizabethan England, these horses will get some love from bettors. They’ve gone head-to-head before, back in mid-December here at Gulfstream, with Algorithm winning by a nose. The latter horse is trained by Todd Pletcher, one of the nation’s best and ridden by Javier Castellano, another top New York jockey. Consortium, in spite of his Kentucky breeding, has a Big Apple tie as well, with the combo of jockey John Velazquez and trainer Kieran McLaughlin.

With a short field, it means that those who like to bet won’t find much to their liking here, but if you want a good horse race it still promises entertainment. Gulfstream is one of two tracks (SoCal’s Santa Anita being the other) that become the focal point of the racing world through February, for reasons I trust are obvious. In fact, Saturday both tracks host the Sunshine Millions, a series of six races, three at each track, that provides a coming-out party for two-year old horses, the first chance for young ponies to do anything notable before the Breeders Cup in November.

The Holy Bull is one of three big Derby Prep races that Gulfstream hosts over the coming month, with each one escalating in importance, and ending with the Florida Derby, a race considered a reliable bellwether for the Triple Crown. Sunday’s isn’t that big, but with a $400,000 purse it offers enough to make it worthwhile for horses looking to pick up enough earnings to qualify for Churchill Downs.

You can catch the race on TVG or HRTV, a channel that can be found amidst the other sports channel listings on your cable/satellite package. Post time will fall about halftime of the Bulls-Heat game, so it’s an easy and fun way to kill a couple minutes and see if Hansen can hold off the field. My guess is that he does it.

PREVIOUS DERBY PREP RESULTS (Jockey/Trainer/Price)
Lecomte Stakes: Mr. Bowling (Robby Albarado/Larry Jones/$9.20)

*Price is based on the return off a $2 bet.

The Road To The Triple Crown: Lecomte Stakes

, , , , ,

The SportsNotebook’s coverage of the Road To The Triple Crown begins today, with the running of the Lecomte Stakes at The Fairgrounds in Louisiana. There’s a $175,000 purse at stake, as the entries try and pile up earnings and qualify for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

Early favorites on the morning line include Seven Lively Sins (9-2), Shared Property (4-1), and Exfactor (5-1). The latter horse, obviously owned by a Bill O’Reilly fan, started to come on last year as a two-year old and won a pair of stakes races. Shared Property has also won a couple big races, but on the down side, turned in a clunker of race in the Breeders’ Cup last November.

Seven Lively Sins, in addition to having quite an interesting name, has a good jockey in Rosie Napravik, and a strong spring would put this horse in position to be the first Derby winner ridden by a female jock. Napravnik got her start on the Maryland circuit, which includes Laurel, along with Pimlico, where the Preakness is run. Now the Louisiana circuit is her home and we’ll see if home track advantage means anything.

This is a good race for bettors, with a 13-horse field meaning good odds—when you get a race where 9-2 is the lowest price on the morning line, that’s a good race if you’re a betting man. One horse outside the favorites to watch would be Dan and Sheila, getting a price of 6-1. He’s ridden by John Velazquez, one of the top riders in the country, and trained by Todd Pletcher, also one of the nation’s best. If you believe in watching the combination of jockey, trainer and odds, in order to find your best shot, then Dan and Sheila would be the play.

Legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas has Chalybeate Spring entered at 20-1, and while that price would be tempting, if I were at the track today, my money would go on Dan and Sheila. But since I’m not at the track and not betting the race, I’d like to see Rosie win it aboard Seven Lively Sins.

The Lecomte Stakes goes at 5:55 PM EST and will likely be shown on the horse racing channels most packages carry, either TVG or HRTV. It’s a fun couple minutes of excitement if you find time to audible down from college hoops for a quick break.