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Tim Lincecum

How The San Francisco Giants Blew Open The NL West Race

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The San Francisco Giants have pulled away in the NL West, with an 83-62 record and a 7.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers coming into Sunday’s games. The easy thing would be to assume the Giants’ pitching eventually wore down all challengers. It would be an easy and understandable assumption, given this team’s track record over the last few years, but it would not be accurate. It’s offense that keyed Frisco’s pullaway to what looks like a second NL West crown in three years.

If we look at the season-long numbers, San Francisco is pretty balanced, ranking 6th in the National League in runs scored and 5th in ERA. Given public perception of the team, just being balanced means the offense is carrying a larger-than-expected share of the load. But if we narrow the focus to what’s happened since the All-Star break, we see the lineup moving up to fourth in scoring runs, while the pitching slips to eighth in ERA.

Buster Posey has carried this lineup. He’s at the forefront of the MVP discussion, and while I still have him a little bit behind Ryan Braun and the fading Andrew McCutchen, my guess is that Posey will be the one who ultimately wins the award. And whether you’d pick him or not, it’s hard to argue he’s a deserving candidate. He’s got a .407/.546 stat line in on-base percentage and slugging percentage for the season and that’s driven by a scorching .464/.663 pace since the All-Star break.

It’s further notable that Posey’s best play has come in a stretch when San Francisco was rocked by the suspension of Melky Cabrera for PED use. In the aftermath of losing Cabrera, who posted a .390/.516 season, combined with the Dodgers loading up at the trade deadline and then in the mega-deal with the Red Sox, it looked like Frisco wouldn’t have enough to keep up. Posey has taken it unto himself to rectify that.

San Francisco has had to overcome disappointments in its everyday lineup. Pablo Sandoval was hurt early on and has never really bounced back from the broken hand of spring, as he’s batting .242 since the break with zero home runs. Hunter Pence, the big trade deadline acquisition, has only hit .228 since coming over from Philadelphia. The supporting contributions have come in bits and pieces, with Brandon Belt posting a .359 on-base percentage, Marco Scutaro hitting .346 since being acquired from Colorado and Angel Pagan heating up in the second half, to the tune of a .351/.485 stat line.

The troubles of Tim Lincecum have been a justifiable major storyline with the pitching this season and the two-time Cy Young Award winner still has an ERA over 5, but since the break he’s 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA. What has to concern manager Bruce Bochy is that Lincecum’s post-All Star ERA is the best in the starting rotation. It’s not as though Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner have come apart—they are more or less in the same ballpark. But no one is really pitching great right now, while Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito are starting to struggle. With an impending Division Series matchup against Cincinnati or Washington, the Giants are going to need Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner to all be locked in.

Bochy has done an admirable job with the bullpen since losing closer Brian Wilson for the year early in the season. Santiago Casilla has handled the closer’s role well, with Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo also getting significant work and posting sub-3.00 ERAs. The same goes for George Kontos and Javier Lopez who are more situational pitchers. The only inconsistent arm in the pen is Clay Hensley. One basic rule about the Giants remains true it’s that they can go to the pen anytime after five innings and still have plenty in reserve for the next game, something Bochy will surely use in October when the leash on the starter becomes shorter.

San Francisco has a fairly soft schedule the rest of September, a diet of Colorado and San Diego, with a series mixed in against Arizona, who’s also below .500. The odds are high they will have clinched the NL West prior to the final series of the year in Dodger Stadium from October 1-3. The main goal now would be catching Cincinnati, whom they trail by 2.5 games, for the two-seed in the NL playoffs and homefield advantage in the Division Series.

NL Report: San Francisco Giants Get Unexpected Offense

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The San Francisco Giants have won each series they’ve played since the All-Star break and as they begin a key three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, the Giants have moved out to a three-game lead in the National League West. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at Frisco, how they’re winning right now and how the road ahead shapes up…

While pitching is the San Francisco calling card, the team’s play in July has been marked by the bats. A ninth-place ranking in the NL for runs scored this month might not seem impressive, but it’s a step up from the season-long #11 spot they hold and the team ERA, normally fourth in the league has dropped to ninth. It’s more impressive still that San Fran is winning games while being slightly below average in both runs scored and ERA in July, but that’s another question entirely.

Ryan Theriot is the biggest difference in the offense right now. The team’s usual power trio of Buster Posey, Melky Cabrera and Pablo Sandoval has certainly swung the bats well this month, but second baseman Theriot, with an on-base percentage over .400 and slugging percentage over .600 in July, has been what’s unique to this current hot streak.

The pitching has been a different story. After a couple strong starts it looked like Tim Lincecum might be back on track, but the anemic San Diego offense knocked him around on Wednesday and even looking at the limited body of work of his last five starts, his ERA is still 6.84. I stand firm in the belief that great players need to be given a full season to allow their past talent to come out before we assume the worst will continue, but Lincecum is running out of time.

San Francisco might win the NL West with Lincecum struggling, but they won’t make it through the National League playoffs without great pitching. Theriot’s hot streak is nice, but the problems with the offense aren’t going to be solved by relying on the random streaks of otherwise mediocre players. The Giants need to hope the issues Sandoval is having with his hamstring don’t require a trip to the disabled list, and if it does, that it doesn’t hurt his power upon return. Brandon Belt needs to start hitting. The young first baseman does a great job with his plate discipline, with an on-base percentage 110 points over his batting average, but when the latter is only .230 without power then it needs to change.

With the Dodgers having upgraded their offense by adding Hanley Ramirez this week, it remains to be seen what San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean will do. But Sabean has a track record of making moves, so the next five days are going to be very interesting. He’s got the farm system to offer prospects and he may also target the bullpen. San Fran’s relief corps has survived the loss of Brian Wilson by promoting Santiago Casilla to closer and relying on their exceptional depth. But the team would be better if the lefthanded Casilla could be in a setup role and perhaps shift someone like Cleveland’s Chris Perez into the ninth inning. The rumors of a possible Giants-Indians deal have been floated, and while this should be secondary to the upgrading the offense, the importance of the closer is magnified as we get later into the season.

After this home series with Los Angeles, the Giants have four more at home with the New York Mets, and then six of the next nine games are against lowly Colorado. The return trip to Los Angeles comes in the second half of August. By then, San Francisco will probably have a new toy for the offense. But the flip side is this—it was after acquiring Carlos Beltran at last year’s trade deadline that San Francisco inexplicably collapsed and let Arizona run away with the division. From Lincecum, to the team as a whole, they have a chance at redeeming themselves in the final two months of 2012.

Around the rest of the National League…

Washington continues to play well, holding a five-game lead over Atlanta, but the best baseball is being played in the NL Central. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh & St. Louis are all on a roll, with the Reds holding a two-game lead over the Pirates and the latter moving into the top wild-card slot. St. Louis has moved to within a game and a half of the Braves, who would be wild-card #2 if the season ended today. The rest of the NL East has fallen out of the wild-card push, with the Dodgers right in the mix and Arizona lurking on the outside and a soft schedule ahead.