Menu

Texas A&M basketball

Is Ole Miss Basketball An SEC Title Contender?

, , , , , ,

The SEC has seen two ships cross in the night when it comes to the race for its conference championship. Ole Miss basketball wasn’t supposed to be a contender, while Kentucky certainly wasn’t supposed to be an NCAA bubble team. But that’s how the season has unfolded to date. It’s Ole Miss that’s tied with Florida atop the conference standings, with Missouri lurking just behind. And it’s Kentucky that’s struggling. With the Rebels set to host last year’s national champion, today is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at Ole Miss basketball and see if they’re the real deal.

We have to begin by noting that even though the Rebels are 17-2, the resume is not littered with impressive wins. The non-conference mark was padded by piling up easy wins, while also losing to Middle Tennessee and Indiana State. Both are pretty good midmajor programs, but losing to them certainly doesn’t suggest an SEC team is ready to go hang with Florida.

While the 6-0 start in league play is eye-catching, the quality of the opposition is not. Ole Miss has beaten an okay Tennessee team twice, along with Arkansas who is fairly average. The Rebs have beaten bad teams in Vanderbilt and Auburn. The one impressive win was Missouri, whom Ole Miss nailed 64-49 two and a half weeks ago, but there’s an asterisk here too —Mizzou was playing without its best player in Laurence Bowers.

Thus, we can give very high marks to Ole Miss for consistency—it’s not easy to go through an extended stretch of games against average teams and never slip up even once. But we have to reserve judgment on their ability to compete with the conference’s best.

Ole Miss’ most explosive player is junior guard Marshall Henderson, who averages 19 ppg. He’s supported by two good forwards in seniors Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner. Holloway is the better of the two averaging 15 points/10 rebounds, while Buckner averages a 10/8. It was these two players who exploited Missouri’s weaknesses on the frontcourt with Bowers out. Then running alongside Henderson in the backcourt is senior Nick Williams, who knows his role and kicks in 10 ppg.

The weaknesses on this team would be that Henderson is the only one who takes three-point shots with any regularity and at 36 percent, he hits them enough to justify shooting, but he’s not so deadly that it’s a real threat to a defense. And there’s no true post player. This is the kind of team I like over the long haul—most college teams can’t exploit you in the post and three-point shooting comes and goes. The fact you don’t rely on the trey means you’ll win consistently in a conference schedule. The problem comes with the one-and-done format of college basketball in March. Eventually you play a team that’s shooting well from outside, or you run into someone who can create a matchup problem for you in the post.

Of course that just means I wouldn’t bet Ole Miss to win the national championship, and I doubt if even many Rebel fans are thinking along those lines. The question for now is whether they can keep hanging in the race for the SEC regular season title. We’ll get at least an inkling tonight against Kentucky. Then comes a big test on Saturday at Florida (7 PM ET, ESPNU). And then the following Saturday is a game at Missouri when it looks like Bowers will be back in the lineup. We know the Rebs are competitive and consistent. Now let’s find out if their title-worthy in their own backyard.

SEC SHIPS PASSING IN THE NIGHT

Kentucky is, of course, the team Ole Miss has replaced as the third wheel in the SEC race with Florida and Missouri. The alarm bells are going off for the Wildcats, who are currently projected as a #10 seed in today’s NCAA Tournament landscape, as laid out by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. That’s bubble territory and not what anyone was expecting. I thought UK would be rolling by this time, and I’m still on the optimistic side for John Calipari’s team to have a strong February.

Freshman center Nerlens Noel is playing well—the scoring, at 10 ppg, is modest, but the kid grabs nine boards and blocks four shots a game. There’s quality three-point shooting from Alex Poythress and Kyle Wiltjer. And guard Archie Goodwin is a good all-around player, with one exception. And it’s that exception that might be the source of the problem. Goodwin takes more three-point shots than anyone on this team and he only hits 29 percent. Maybe it’s time for Calipari to tell the kid to put the ball on the floor instead of jacking up the treys.

After tonight’s trip to Ole Miss, Kentucky will play Texas A&M. And as long as we’re on the subject of ships passing in the night, remind to never again sing the praises of A&M basketball. A couple weeks ago, I noted their 2-0 start in SEC play and wrote a complimentary article on their chances of hanging in the race. I could live with the fact that they got blown out by Florida immediately after the article went online. I can’t live with the fact they still haven’t won a game since, including losses to SEC cellar-dwellers LSU & Georgia. The Aggies’ Elston Turner is still a quality scorer, but no one in this lineup is averaging more than three assists per game. Let’s see some ball movement.

Is Texas A&M Basketball Ready To Be The School’s Second Surprise?

, , , , ,

Texas A&M’s football team snuck up on everyone this year, produced the Heisman Trophy winner and was probably the best team in the country by season’s end. Is Texas A&M basketball now in the midst of a similar surge? The Aggies knocked off Kentucky on Saturday and look set to contend in the SEC. That’s not as prestigious in hoops as it might be in football, but it’s more than might have been expected of Texas A&M. Let’s take a closer look at the Aggies, and then take a brief look at something else that will please A&M fans—the basketball struggles of former conference rival Texas.

Elston Turner is the big gun for Texas A&M. The 6’5” guard averages 17 ppg and he made his big statement on Saturday when he dropped 40 on Kentucky. Turner serves as more or less the swingman in an offense that has two smallish guards running the show in 6’1” J’Mychal Ross and 5’11” Fabyon Harris. Collectively, this is a group that’s solid shooting from the floor, with both Turner and Harris on the high side of 40 percent from three-point range.

It’s the interior that’s going to determine the Aggies’ fate, and the most reliable player is 6’9” senior forward Ray Turner, averaging 11 points/7 rebounds. The X-factor is freshman Kourtney Robinson. Also 6’9”, Robinson holds the key to deciding whether his team has solid balance down low, or if Turner is going to fight lonely wars all year long.

The non-conference part of the season had some disappointments. A loss to St. Louis wasn’t bad, but losing it 70-49 certainly sent an ominous sign. The Aggies allowed St. Louis to shoot 51 percent from the floor, were outrebounded and committed 19 turnovers. A mid-December game with Oklahoma didn’t go quite as well as the Cotton Bowl did for A&M when the same two schools met. Another 19-turnover display gave OU a ten-point win. And most disappointing was a 53-51 loss to Southern, where Ray Turner and Roberson combined for six points.

There were still enough wins to keep the overall record solid, and now Texas A&M has opened up SEC play with two wins. It started with a 69-51 win over Arkansas, before Saturday’s victory over Kentucky. What’s notable—besides the obvious of Elston Turner’s point explosion—is that Roberson has stepped. Up. His 13/12 game against Arkansas keyed a 47-25 Aggie edge on the glass, and he came up with nine rebounds against Kentucky.

Texas A&M does not have great depth, so their ability to compete the SEC championships is limited. But this is a starting five that matches up with anyone in the league for a one-game shot. Elston Turner gives them the go-to player they need, and Ray Turner and Roberson can hit the boards and provide some athletic ability on the baseline. The Aggie basketball program won’t scale the heights that football did this fall, but they look poised to give the fans a fun run these next couple months and fight for an NCAA Tournament spot.

THE EYES OF TEXAS ARE FILLED WITH TEARS

The prognosis is not so good at Texas, once the archrival of A&M when both were in the Big 12, and I feel safe in assuming there’s still plenty of bad blood. So Aggie fans have to be even happier watching the Longhorns flounder. Texas brought a lot back after making the NCAA Tournament as a young team a year ago, but this season has gone off the rails.

After a rough non-conference run, Texas has started Big 12 play 0-3, with a pair of overtime losses, followed by getting hammered by twenty up at Iowa State. The first loss was to Baylor, and in a road game, the Longhorns only shot 14 free throws to the Bears’ 45. Now I’m not a believer that the job of an official is to ensure every team shoots an equal number of foul shots, but I’m hard-pressed to think that Texas really committed that many more fouls than the home team. There was no excuse though, for an ugly loss to West Virginia, a weaker opponent than Baylor and one who played in Austin.

Texas does not have anyone who can hit the three-point shot. Sheldon McClellan and Julien Lewis are good sophomore guards who played a lot last year, but neither one hits from downtown. And right now, McClellan is nursing an ankle injury that caused him to miss the thumping the team took in Ames over the weekend.

Furthermore, there are no rebounders to help sophomore Jonathan Holmes. The 6’7” forward is averaging eight a game, but he’s the only one able or interested in hitting the glass. The most likely to candidate to step up and help is the 6’8” freshman from Greece, Ioannis Papapetrou,, who’s currently only getting four rebounds a night, but improvement here is the only immediate path I can see to Texas getting better, particularly if McClellan is slow to get back.

The good news for Texas is that they have a week off to sort things out and get McClellan’s ankle rested, and they’ll be at home on Saturday. The bad news—the opponent will be Kansas. It’s shaping up to be a long basketball season in Austin. At least this school usually has a great baseball team. Maybe that, and national signing day for football recruits, can provide a little respite come February.

The Race For March Madness: The Big 12’s Middle Five

, , , , , , ,

The Big 12 has three teams that tower above the rest in Kansas, Missouri and Baylor when it comes to the conference championship. Below the Power Trio are five more teams angling for NCAA Tournament berths and it’s that Middle Five that draw the attention of TheSportsNotebook today.

We can break the five teams down into three categories. Based on the NCAA bracket projections of Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com, Kansas State and Iowa State would make the field if the season ended today. Texas would be in the group of teams just missing the field. And Texas A&M and Oklahoma aren’t currently in the picture, but have a good enough overall record to get there in the next six weeks. Here’s a look at where each of the five stands, what they’ve done and who they have.

Kansas State (15-5, 4-4, projected #7 seed): Frank Martin has done a fabulous coaching job with a team that had to rebuild this year and doesn’t have much depth. Rodney McGruder, the junior two-guard has answered the bell with a 16 ppg average, while Jamar Samuels has been solid down low with 11 points/7 rebounds per night. These were the core two players that Martin was counting on in November. He’s also gotten some nice rebounding help from Thomas Gipson and backcourt scoring from sophomore Will Spradling. K-State’s biggest weakness is they don’t shoot the three-pointer well and its tough see them rising any higher than their current status. But they’ve found ways to beat Missouri and Texas, along with Alabama in non-conference play, so you can’t count out a Martin-coached team.

Iowa State (15-6, 5-3, projected #12 seed): The 12 seeds are the last of the at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament, with everything below that going to small-conference automatics. Iowa State’s win over Kansas on Saturday put them on the map, but the seed projection shows that win must be seen as a beginning and not as an ending. The Cyclones are undersized in the paint, but 6’8” Royce White cures a lot of ills with his 14/10 average, and the backcourt is deep. They could use a true playmaker and this is another team that I find it hard to imagine playing much better than they are right now. Senior guard Scott Christopherson is a good three-point shooter and having him steal a win in February with some long-range bombing might be the difference in whether or not they make the field.

Iowa State and Kansas State go head-to-head in Ames tonight, with both teams having games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M respectively on the weekend.

Texas (13-9, 3-6, projected missing the field by 5-8 spots): The Longhorns are really young with five freshmen being a part of Rick Barnes’ seven-man rotation. They’re making improvements, having suffered a one-point loss to Missouri last night, a heartbreaker in Baylor on Saturday and a nailbiter against Kansas prior to that. With Texas Tech and Texas A&M coming up this week, the ‘Horns have to start getting in the W column immediately. J’Covan Brown is an outstanding all-around point guard, scoring 20 a game, while freshmen Sheldon McClellan and Myck Kabongo are making improvements as his running mates and scoring in double digits. The development of the frosh inside, Jonathan Holmes and Clint Chapman hasn’t progressed as well. Between the lack of a post scorer and a three-point shooter, the Longhorns are going to have a tough time getting on the sustained winning streak they’ll need to play their way back in. We should also note that their current bracket projection doesn’t include last night’s game, although a close loss to Missouri might actually work in UT’s favor.

Oklahoma (13-7, 3-5): The Sooners have beaten Kansas State twice and the losses include all three conference heavyweights, plus solid teams in St. Louis and Cincinnati. It’s the L to Texas A&M that hurts them, and the one to Oklahoma State that looks even worse. OU isn’t deep up front, but their two core players, Andrew Fitzgerald and Romeo Osby do a lot of damage, combining for a 25/13 line each night. Steve Pledger is the leading scorer at the guard spot and is a great three-point shooter. Filling in the gaps around these three is the challenge, but regardless, it’s easy to see a Pledger, Fitzgerald, Osby core leading a push to March Madness. With the next game being a road trip to Kansas, we’ll probably have to wait until Saturday’s home game with Iowa State to see if such a push is in the cards.

Texas A&M (12-8, 3-5): A&M also has a good pair at the forward spots, with Khris Middleton and David Lobeau. Unlike OU, they don’t have a pure shooter on the outside, but they do have extra help on the frontline with forward Ray Turner, a 6’9” double-digit scorer. Middleton, Lobeau and Turner can present matchup problems in a college landscape that’s backcourt heavy. And while A&M doesn’t have a three-point threat, two-guard Elston Turner still averages 15 ppg, with senior Dash Harris running the show. It’s easy to see the Aggies making a strong push in these coming weeks, although like Oklahoma, the weekend is the more likely coming-out party. Not only is Baylor the opponent, but Harris and Middleton are both questionable.

The Big 12 has become one of the nation’s best basketball conferences and quite frankly I’d probably consider it the best combined football/hoops league out there right now. I find it tough to imagine they get any fewer than the currently projected five teams in the NCAA Tournament, and at the end of the day, my guess is that six will make it. I’m picking both current outcasts, A&M and Oklahoma to move on up and join Kansas State when the field of 68 is announced on March 12.