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How High Can TCU Climb?

We’re going to know quickly whether Gary Patterson’s TCU Horned Frogs can make a serious dark horse push for the College Football Playoff. After a tuneup win over Southern this past weekend, TCU faces the following—a Friday night road game with SMU (8 PM ET, ESPN), a bowl team from last year, that sets the stage for a monster showdown with Ohio State the following week in prime-time at Dallas. After the Buckeyes leave the Lone Star state, TCU has to immediately regroup and go to Texas on September 22.

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There’s no time to grow and develop and unfortunately for Horned Frog fans, that’s what the TCU offense needs right now. Patterson brought in some of his most talented recruits at running back and wide receiver and he’s got a couple good young options at quarterback. But the offensive line is being rebuilt and it may be into October before this Horned Frog attack starts humming at the level needed to beat quality opposition (okay, whether Texas is “quality opposition” is subject to reasonable dispute at the moment, but the Longhorns are talented).

Patterson’s calling card in Fort Worth has long been the defense and the good news is that this side of the ball is ready for prime-time. The defensive line in particular looks really good. Ben Banogu, Corey Bethley and Ross Blacklock lead a four-man front that’s the best in the Big 12. It will be very interesting to see how they match up with Ohio State in the trenches in a couple weeks.

TCU has been pounding the door of greatness for several years now. They’ve been to three major bowl games under Patterson since 2009 and won two of them. They shared the Big 12 title in 2014 and had a lot of people arguing they deserved a Playoff berth in that season. They went 10-2 in the regular season last year and qualified for the Big 12 Championship Game. That was a loss to Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs then turned around and got a bowl win over Stanford. They’re collecting quality scalps and as long as the Texas program remains in dysfunction, TCU is the most consistent challenger to OU in this league.

Having said all that, it looks like next season might be a better one to target if you’re talking about reaching the Playoff. To do that this year, a young team would have to find a way to split between Ohio State and Oklahoma (October 20) and still run the table the rest of the way, including a November trip to West Virginia. That’s asking too much.

What is realistic is aiming for another New Year’s Six bowl bid. A nine-win regular season puts TCU in contention and a ten-win campaign almost certainly does it. We’ll find out over these next three weeks what realistic expectations will be for this overachieving program.

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If the most important number in college football is “4” for the number of Playoff spots, the second-most important number is “11”, for the number of spots that power conference teams can take in the big New Year’s Six games (the 12th spot going to the highest-rated mid-major). As such, TheSportsNotebook will release its Top 11 after each week’s games, along with a pick for the 12th spot, and then see how that’s likely to translate into major bowl matchups. Here’s my first rankings…

1)Alabama
2)Ohio State
3)Clemson
4)Georgia
5)Auburn
6)Oklahoma
7)Wisconsin
8)Virginia Tech
9)Washington
10)Notre Dame
11)Penn State

The 12th: Boise State

PROJECTED MAJOR BOWL MATCHUPS
Cotton (CFP): Alabama-Georgia
Orange (CFP): Ohio State-Clemson
Rose: Washington-Wisconsin
Sugar: Oklahoma-Auburn
Fiesta: Boise State-Virginia Tech
Peach: Penn State-Notre Dame

Did Alabama Belong In The College Football Playoff?

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It didn’t take long for the “TCU made a statement” and “TCU proved they belonged in the College Football Playoff” rhetoric to ratchet up after the Horned Frogs demolished Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Eve. TCU’s backers in the national media were ready to pounce.

All that was required was for the presumptive demolition of Ohio State at the hands of Alabama to take place the following night in the Sugar Bowl. Only that didn’t turn out as expected and the crusade never caught fire. Why? How about subjecting Alabama to the same kind of post-bowl scrutiny that Ohio State surely would have?
Let me begin by saying that I think the College Football Playoff committee got the right four teams and felt that way as soon as the matchups were unveiled. I’m not a believer in the notion that teams prove their worthiness after the fact. TCU lost head-to-head to Baylor, and as far as I’m concerned that settles who the Big 12 candidate is.
Baylor played a lousy non-conference schedule, while Ohio State at least went out and played bowl teams in Navy and Virginia Tech. I would have been fine with either the Bears or Buckeyes going, but ask me to pick who the fourth team should be and I would have voted for Ohio State.
College Football HistoryBut with that said, if I was ready to pounce on Ohio State if they lost, I’d certainly have been ready to shift gears and question whether Alabama ever belonged in the playoff field to begin with. Why do the Tide get a pass? The bowl season established that the SEC West, far from being on a level just below the NFC West, was in fact incredibly overrated.
This side of the SEC went 2-5 in bowl play. They did not match up with the rest of the country. Yet Alabama was unable to go undefeated against this group of teams. Say what you will about Florida State’s schedule, but at least they won them all. And in any case, if a playoff can’t include a defending national champion that hasn’t lost in two years, then what is exactly the point of having a bracket?
If we’re going to do some second-guessing, it’s Alabama whose inclusion is now debatable. They played in what we now know to be a subpar division, didn’t go undefeated and were quickly exposed on the national stage.
Of course no one could have known this prior to the bowl season. That’s why we should look at starting the playoffs after the bowls, when there’s a much better read on what conferences are really the strongest. But that’s a subject for another day.

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The Mountain West’s Reputation On The Line

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The best of the Mountain West take the field these next two nights, beginning with TCU-Louisiana Tech tonight and Boise State-Arizona State tomorrow, both games at 8 PM EST on ESPN. TCU & Boise both need to carry the conference banner, because a tough regular season for the Mountain West has been followed by a rocky opening to the bowl calendar.

Wyoming was a pleasant surprise in the MWC this year, going 8-4, but it all came crashing down Saturday against Temple in a 37-15 loss. This could be attributed to a matchup problem. While Wyoming played decent overall defense, they were soft against the run and that was what the Owls, with Bernard Pierce in the backfield and Chris Coyer running, were ideally positioned to exploit. That night San Diego State lost to UL-Lafayette in a back-and-forth thriller that came down to the Cajuns nailing a 50-yard field goal at the gun. We could attribute that loss to the raw emotion brought into the game by Lafayette and the excitement of a hometown crowd. But the excuses are piling up while the wins aren’t. With TCU and Boise both big favorites, it’s time to get some W’s.

Gary Patterson at TCU has done an outstanding job replacing a lot of the talent that delivered back-to-back perfect regular seasons in 2009-10 and a Rose Bowl win last season. The Horned Frogs’ defensive dominance isn’t back yet, but they are improving and the passing game has come along very quickly. Patterson tapped sophomore Casey Pachall as the replacement for Cincinnati Bengals’ rookie Andy Dalton and Pachall came out gunning right from the outset, when he threw for 251 yards in a season-opening loss to Baylor. The young quarterback went on to play well in a win over Air Force and loss to SMU. As TCU went unbeaten through Mountain West play, Pachall was steady throughout and he rose to the level of spectacular in Boise when his 473 yards gunned down the unbeaten Broncos. He’s developed a rapport with sophomore receiver Josh Boyce and the duo should be ready for more productive years together.

TCU has made strides defensively. Heisman winner Robert Griffin III wasn’t the only quarterback to have his way with the Frogs in September. SMU put up 33 points in regulation (plus 7 more in overtime), as Patterson’s team lost twice early. But the defense has come along, doing a good job in containing San Diego State, Wyoming and surviving at Boise. The question is this—is that real defensive improvement, or is it a sign that maybe the Mountain West isn’t all it was cracked up to be with Boise’s arrival?

The record is troublesome for MWC backers. San Diego State lost at Michigan, but more alarming was a narrow escape at Army. Wyoming’s loss to Nebraska wasn’t as troublesome as being absolutely buried by Utah State. Air Force barely survived Navy’s worst team in several years and was destroyed by Notre Dame. Conference play was a respite for the Falcons, who play next Wednesday against Toledo. Only Boise really stood out in its September schedule.

Chris Petersen’s team  opened the season with a  road-neutral win over Georgia in Atlanta, a game that looks much more impressive in retrospect, as the Bulldogs changed from a struggling program with an embattled head coach to the champs of the SEC East. Boise decisively beat three midmajor bowl teams in Toledo, Tulsa and Nevada. The one concern was the lack of a running game, with Doug Martin unable to really get untracked. Whether it was midseason improvement or the onset of Mountain West opponents, things got better on the ground. Martin had 125-plus yards in wins over Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming and backup D.J. Harper ran for 125 against TCU. All the while, the lefty quarterback Kellen Moore kept producing. Boise’s defense has shown some softness against the run—nothing major, but Wyoming, San Diego State and Tulsa had 100-plus yards on the ground (Air Force had over 200, but as a triple-option team that runs almost every play that doesn’t tell us a lot). When Boise took the running game away against TCU, Pachall lit up the secondary.

What it boils down to is that we’re not quite sure what to make of the two Mountain West powers and by extension, their conference. Does improvement come from the evolution of the season or the change to conference opponents. We’ll find out the next two nights. With that in mind, let’s look at the specifics of these bowl matchups…

TCU-Louisiana Tech: This is one of the more underappreciated games on the card. Louisiana Tech is an improving team themselves and got a big win on the road in Nevada to sneak off with the WAC title. Tech also tested themselves in non-conference play. A 1-4 start was marked by narrow losses to Southern Miss (C-USA champ), Houston (C-USA runner-up) and Mississippi State (bowl team out of the SEC). In regulation play the difference between Louisiana Tech and those three teams was a net (-2) points, and Mississippi State added a touchdown in overtime. Tech was then beaten decisively by Hawaii when the Rainbows still had quarterback Bryant Moniz and were bowl-caliber.

Once Louisiana Tech got its hands on WAC teams, close losses began turning into wins. They played the best defense in the conference, edging Utah State prior to the win over Nevada. Tech made a quarterback change midway through, benching freshman Nick Isham, whose interceptions who were a big part of the early losses and replaced him with junior Colby Cameron. In the backfield, Tech began taking away carries from Lennon Creer and handed them to freshman Hunter Lee. It sparked an increase in rush yardage and means that Creer’s likely suspension for tonight doesn’t matter all that much.

For tonight’s game, the problems Tech had with Moniz suggest to me that Pachall can have a good night, and TCU should win. But this game should be close, and betting action in Las Vegas seems to indicate that others agree. TCU opened at (-11) and that line is now down to (-9) so the money is hitting the Bulldogs. It think this one’s close enough to make the smart money right.

Boise State-Arizona State: Not only does Kellen Moore say goodbye to college ball tonight, but Arizona State head coach Dennis Erickson, who won national championships at Miami in 1989 and 1991, coaches his final game for the Sun Devils and possibly has last game ever. It’s been a terribly disappointing ending to a once-promising season for Arizona State. They had control of the Pac-12 South race for much of the season and not just because USC was on probation. The Sun Devils beat the Trojans decisively back in September and quarterback Brock Osweiler has been as consistent as any passer in the country. He’s gotten steady support in the running game from Cameron Marshall.

But in the final four games, Arizona State not only lost all four, they did it every way possible. UCLA rushed for 220 yards and won on the final play. Washington State’s Connor Halliday then had a career against the Sun Devil secondary, throwing for nearly 500 yards. Osweiler lost a shootout to Arizona’s Nick Foles, when even ASU’s 482 passing yards weren’t enough to overcome the two interceptions. Four more turnovers doomed the finale against Cal. Have we been given any reason to believe that Arizona State’s defense can stop Kellen Moore?

Last season’s bowl season was a triumphant ride for the current teams of the Mountain West. Boise State’s win over Utah was a WAC over MWC game at the time, but is now a win for a current Mountain West team over a current Pac-12 team. Got all that? TCU won the Rose Bowl. Air Force beat Georgia Tech and San Diego State dismantled a good Navy squad. This year’s is off to an 0-2 start and the results from back in September suggest that it’s not a fluke. It’s up to TCU and Boise State to disprove that the next two nights.