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Tampa Bay Rays playoff chances

MLB Coverage: Does Tampa Have A Second-Half Push Ahead?

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The attention in the American League East has centered on front-running Boston, and when it comes to teams who can catch them, the media has either fixated on Toronto’s recent hot streak, New York’s injured players or Baltimore and Chris Davis. But don’t forget about the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are 47-40, only a half-game behind the Yanks and a full game back of the Orioles coming into Saturday’s games. And now last year’s Cy Young Award winner is healthy.

WILL THE PRICE FINALLY BE RIGHT?

It’s been a rough year for David Price, after the Tampa ace edged out Detroit’s Justin Verlander for the Cy Young Award in the 2012 season. Price was first hit pretty hard, and then he was put on the disabled list. He just came off, and threw seven shutout innings on his return. The ERA is still 4.65 for the year, but perhaps the second half of the season will have better things ahead.

The same needs to be said for most of the Tampa rotation. The starting pitching, normally the heart of this team’s success, is ninth in the American League. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled to a 4.67 ERA and can’t use bad health as a reason. Matt Moore, after a strong start to the season has begun to have problems. Alex Cobb posted a 3.01 ERA in 13 starts, but is now recovering from a concussion.


Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) has been better than I thought he’d be, with a 4.36 ERA. But that’s more a reflection of how dim my expectations were. The Rays aren’t going to pass serious AL East contenders if Hernandez is their third-best pitcher, which is basically what he’s been for the first part of the season.

LONGORIA GETS HELP

If you’d have told me at the start of the season that Tampa’s starting pitching would be this problematic, contention would have been the last thing on anyone’s mind. But the offense has ginned it up several notches, and the Rays are fourth in the American League in runs scored. While offensive success for this lineup always begins with Evan Longoria—and he’s having a fine year, with a stat line of .371 on-base percentage/.537 slugging percentage—the third baseman has gotten some unexpected help.

My expectations for first baseman James Loney weren’t a lot higher than that of Hernandez, and Loney’s pickup seemed another low-budget move for Tampa. Loney has had a big year though, with a stat line of .378/.478. He’s the biggest reason the Rays have been able to become a genuinely good offense, rather than a merely tolerable one.

Tampa’s gotten strong hitting over the past month from centerfielder Desmond Jennings, who might be finally starting to break out and fulfill his potential. Ben Zobrist, after a slow first half, also is starting to get locked in at the plate. We don’t know how fast rookie rightfielder Will Myers will develop, but he’s a tremendous prospect—the centerpiece of the offseason package received from Kansas City for James Shields. Then throw in Matt Joyce, who’s hitting for power, albeit with a weak OBP.

It all adds up to a lineup that can even get better, or if Loney returns to form, at least maintain their already productive pace.

NO RELIEF IN SIGHT

Tampa’s normally steady relief corps has been subpar, ranking 8th in the American League. And when your closer is struggling that makes the problem seem worse. Fernando Rodney has blown five saves and sits on a 4.29 ERA. Most of the setup team is struggling, save for Joel Peralta. And even Peralta’s 3.58 ERA isn’t going to have teams quaking in their boots.

What Joe Maddon does have is some options to restructure. He’s got one veteran and one kid who have been able to pitch well. Jamey Wright, 38-years-old, has a 2.88 ERA. Alex Torres, a 25-year-old lefty has been razor-sharp in limited duty, with a 0.38 ERA. I have to think Maddon is going to give Torres a greater role in the second half.

WILL THE RAYS SHINE?

I think this team has a strong second half of them. I have little doubt that Price is going to pitch significantly better, and Hellickson will at least be a little bit better. Moore will have his ups and downs as a talented young pitcher, and that means some more ups are going to be on the way. Cobb is a tougher call, but if there no lingering effects from the concussion, his stuff is good enough to be reliable.


What’s more, the reasons to think the offense can continue to hit at, or close to it, their current levels, are all sound. I’m not optimistic the bullpen can become a lockdown unit, but with the changing of roles outlined above, they can be better than what they have been.

Thus, we have a team just outside the playoff picture with a lot of reasons to think better days are on the way. That would add up to at least a wild-card berth.

AROUND THE AL EAST

Boston (54-34): The Red Sox show no signs of slowing down, opening up on a 5 ½ game lead coming into Saturday, thanks to an offense that not only leads the American League in runs scored, but is first in the component parts of on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Baltimore (48-39): I don’t know what the deal is with closer Jim Johnson. He blew his sixth save of the year Friday night in New York, and if this doesn’t change, it’s either going to keep the Orioles out of the playoffs or be the reason they lose once they get there.

NY Yanks (47-39): Derek Jeter started rehab today.

Toronto (42-44): Remember that ballyhooed surge by the Blue Jays? They’re back to eleven games out.

PREVIOUS MLB COVERAGE THIS WEEK IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL CENTRAL: Twins
AL WEST: Angels

MLB Coverage: Toronto & Tampa Bay In Early AL East Hole

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The American League East was seen as the most balanced of baseball’s six divisions when the season began, with no clear dominant team and no clear bad one. The question was whether someone would pull away in either direction in the early part of the season. After three weeks of play, both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays are, at the very least, having to play with some urgency. While the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles are all off to good starts, the Jays & Rays are struggling. In today’s American League MLB coverage, TheSportsNotebook will examine why.

TORONTO LANGUISHES IN LAST

Toronto’s problems can be summed up thusly…

*They don’t get runners on base consistently.
*The starting pitching has been horrible.
*Some bad luck with injuries has hit them.

The Blue Jays are in the bottom third of the American League offensively and the main culprit is a team on-base percentage that’s 14th among 15 AL teams. It’s not that there are no signs of life—catcher J.P. Arencibia, rightfielder Jose Bautista and centerfielder Colby Rasmus are hitting home runs. The trio has combined to go deep 14 times, but none are getting on base with any regularity. Notable players like Edwin Encarcion, Melky Cabrera and Adam Lind are just having slow starts period.

Pitching was supposed to cure a lot of ills in Toronto, and maybe in time t will. But right now the ballyhooed acquisitions of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson aren’t panning out. Johnson’s ERA near 7, Buehrle’s is 6.26 and Dickey, last year’s Cy Young winner, is at 4.30. I am not optimistic that Dickey will turn around—we’re talking about a 38-year-old pitcher who’s been moved from pitcher-friendly Citi Field in New York into an offense-heavy division in the AL East. Other starters include J.A. Happ and Brandon Morrow and they haven’t been any better.

Jose Reyes has been lost until June with a leg injury. Reyes was off to good start, with a .465 on-base percentage. That’s something that directly addresses the team’s biggest offensive problem and it’s done by a player who can be expected to play at a high level over the long haul. While his injury is not a shock, given Reyes’ fragile history, nor was it a foregone conclusion. The Jays can legitimately claim this kind of extended absence as a bad break.

Toronto was the betting-line favorite to win the AL East at the start of the season. If you were the many who believed in them, you will undoubtedly want to give Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson and a lot of those offensive pieces time to click. If I had been one of the believers, that’s certainly the tack I would take. But the Blue Jays were six games out of first coming into Sunday and already trailing all four division rivals. Toronto just began a 14-day stretch that has twelve games against the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox. Believer or not, I think we can all agree that urgency has come early north of the border.

THE PRICE ISN’T RIGHT IN TAMPA

Tampa Bay is only a half-game better than Toronto coming into Sunday, and their early-season issues can be boiled down to this…

*The offense has been predictably subpar
*The bullpen has been unexpectedly problematic.
*David Price has really unexpectedly been terrible.

The Rays are 11th in the American League in runs scored and I don’t know that anyone—including myself who believes in this team—is all that shocked. Evan Longoria is swinging the bat well, with a stat line of .362 on-base percentage/.500 slugging percentage. While Rays fans can reasonably expect Ben Zobrist to hit for more power and Matt Joyce to pick up the pace, they can also reasonably expect James Loney’s good start to soon dissipate.

Whether this team can move into the top half of the American League offensively likely depends on whether Desmond Jennings can become a true table-setter. After a disappointing 2012 campaign, Jennings  is off to a slow start. Another possibility might be for the middle infield tandem of Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson to hit, something they have not done thus far.

Either way, no one doubts that Tampa Bay has to pitch at a very high level if they’re going to make the playoffs. That’s what makes Fernando Rodney’s start so concerning. After a 2012 campaign where he was nothing short of lights-out, Rodney has a 4.76 ERA and an early blown save. The pen as a whole has coughed up three saves thus far, and its 2-for-5 closing ratio is the worst in the American League.

Price joins Dickey as reigning Cy Young winners who are struggling out of the gate. Price has a 6.26 ERA in four starts. In this case though, I think the positives in the rotation outweigh the negatives—Alex Cobb is off to a good start, with a 2.53 ERA and Matt Moore has been dominant, with a 1.00 ERA in his three starts. Given the certainty that Price will start to pitch better, the continued growth of Cobb and Moore is a more significant development.

That’s why I expect Tampa Bay to turn it around and climb back up with the Red Sox/Yankees/Orioles trio in a season-long joust, with the question of the bullpen and the offense determining whether Tampa can ultimately get over the top. The Rays host the Yankees to start next week, including an appearance on ESPN’s Monday Night Baseball. That’s followed by winnable road series at Chicago, Kansas City and Colorado. As with Toronto, Tampa Bay has to approach these early games with some extra intensity.

AROUND THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

It was an emotional week in Boston, and the Red Sox delivered a magical moment to their city on Saturday. After a pregame ceremony honoring the victims of the Marathon bombing, Boston beat Kansas City with a three-run homer in the eighth by Daniel Nava. The leftfielder has now hit a grand slam on his first major league pitch (2010) and then jacked the game-winning blast in the first home game after a terrorist attack.

As a Boston fan, I’ve said any number of derogatory things about Yankee fans, and you can be assured that I often thought worse than I actually wrote. As such, I have to tip my cap to their absolute class in singing “Sweet Caroline” to honor Boston this week at Yankee Stadium. And if you see the highlights, the Yankee fans sang the song with real gusto. I’m sure as time goes by I’ll have to throw in some jabs at Yankee backers, but the class and dignity they showed this week will not be forgotten.

The American League Central remains packed, with Detroit unable to gain traction. In the American League West the dynamic has not fundamentally changed since last week, when we looked at yet another slow start for the Angels. It’s still Oakland and Texas with some early separation and Los Angeles—now 6-10—trying to find their footing.

MLB Coverage: Texas & Tampa Look To Bounce Back

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The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays are both coming off their own disappointments last year. The teams had met in the playoffs in both 2010 and 2011 and it seemed fair to think a Round Three might have taken place in the American League Championship Series. But the Rays missed the playoffs entirely, the Rangers blew the AL West and then the wild-card game and now both teams are somewhat under the radar as Opening Day 2013 approaches. The two teams even have the exact same expectations, as defined by the Over/Under win total posted in Las Vegas, of 86.5. Let’s check on both teams and see what the prospects for renewal are this season.

Texas: The Rangers have got problems. This is a franchise that seems almost in a sort of rebuilding mode—or at least a step back and re-tool mode. They let Josh Hamilton walk to the Angels. Texas is talking about trading Elvis Andrus if they can’t sign the shortstop to a long-term deal. There are problems in the pitching rotation and the front office made no effort to go after Zack Greinke, either last summer on the trade market or this winter via free agency.

It’s not as though Texas is a team without flaws. Nelson Cruz has been in decline offensively for two straight years. Ian Kinsler is coming off a down year. The signing of Lance Berkman to DH is not without risk, given Berkman’s knee problems last year. The same goes for adding A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate. Pierzynski is 35-years-old and I find it hard to believe he’ll repeat his out-of-character 27 home runs from last year.  David Murphy had a breakout year in left, but when your breakout year comes at age 31, how much of it is real and how much is a fluke?

When we look at the pitching rotation, the fifth spot is completely up in the air, Derek Holland is coming off a disappointing year and Ron Washington will have to rely on Alexi Ogando in the 3-spot. Ogando is a good pitcher in whatever role he’s been in, but he’s also not spent an entire season as a starter before. That leaves three-fifths of the starting pitching as a bona fide question mark, and in the bullpen the departures of Mike Adams and Koji Uehara make pretty much the entire setup team a question mark.

I’ve pointed out all the negatives with gusto, so let’s talk some positives. Yu Darvish showed he could pitch in the major leagues, winning 16 games with a 3.90 ERA and pitching well in the wild-card loss to Baltimore before the bullpen let the game get away. Matt Harrison has had two consecutive solid years. In the everyday lineup, Adrian Beltre has hit 67 home runs in his two years in Texas and done a pretty good job getting on base consistently. Joe Nathan resurrected his career as a closer and saved 37 games. Although he’s also 37 years old, so even this bright spot comes laden with a question mark.

It probably won’t come as a surprise that I think Texas is coming in “Under” its win projection.

Tampa Bay: It’s all going to be about starting pitching for the Rays. David Price won a well-deserved Cy Young Award last year, with 20 wins and a 2.56 ERA. Jeremy Hellickson, at age 26, has already established himself as a very good #2 pitcher in a tough division and it’s easy to see Hellickson winning a Cy of his own some day. Matt Moore had his first full season in the rotation, got better as the year went along and looks ready to make his own ascension to being an elite starter. Alex Cobb will get there too, posting a respectable 4.03 ERA last season in 23 starts.

These four arms can win you a World Series, especially when you add in closer Fernando Rodney, one of the best in baseball last year. They could use a little more depth in front of him, but Jake McGee and Joel Peralta are both solid arms and my guess is that Joe Maddon will find a way to get good innings out of at least a couple more arms.

But when we look at the offense, you realize how little margin of error the starting pitching has, or how hard the team could fall if there’s an injury of any length in the rotation. Tampa Bay has three spots in the lineup that you might as well write off as dead weight—catcher (38-year-old Jose Molina), first base (perpetually disappointing James Loney) and DH (over-the-hill Luke Scott). You can take two more spots—Yunel Escobar at short and Matt Joyce in left and assume you won’t get any more than just basic functional performance, nothing special.

The question marks are Desmond Jennings in center and Kelly Johnson at second base. Johnson used to be an up-and-down hitter, but now has had two straight bad years. Jennings disappointed a year ago with a poor .314 on-base percentage, but he’s still young and I’m a little more optimistic on his prospects.

There’s no getting around the huge burden that rests on the shoulders of Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist. Longoria was gone much of the summer last year and the Rays fell too far off the pace in the AL East to come back. If nothing else, Longoria was his usual All-Star caliber self when he did play, and Zobrist has become one of the most underrated players in baseball, his offensive game strong in all phases and able to play rightfield or second base.

The expanded playoff format implemented last year works well for Tampa. They’re the kind of team that can excel in any one-game setting because of the starting pitching and if they get in the playoffs a team that’s heavily dependent on pitching and a couple offensive stars can go a long way, as the San Francisco Giants have shown us. It’s getting there that’s going to be the issue. I’m not sure where I stand on that yet—final predictions will come on Opening Day. I think that win number in Vegas sounds about right, but since a staple of TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage is that I have to make a pick, I give a slight lean to the Over. Pitching cures a lot of ills.

The MLB Playoff Race With A Week Left

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Every team in baseball has two series left as the MLB playoff race hits its final week. Let’s take a look at how the races shape up, who plays who and what we have to look forward to in these closing days…

AL CENTRAL: The Chicago White Sox are fading fast, having lost seven of nine, a stretch that includes series losses to Kansas City & Cleveland. Meanwhile, Detroit took advantage of the chance to play the Royals in rattling off a four-game sweep. Detroit now leads the division by two games. They close on the road, but the trips are to Minnesota and Kansas City.

Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch Saturday, a circumstance that means he could come back on short rest for Wednesday’s season finale if necessary. Meanwhile, the White Sox are in red-hot Tampa, then go to Cleveland. The most high-stakes race in baseball—its winner-take-all, with no wild-card cushion—could be over by the end of the weekend.

AL WILD-CARD: Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have played their way back into this race right now, and only trail Oakland by two games. Baltimore currently holds the top wild-card spot, and the Rays get the Orioles in a home series to end the season. But both challengers have tough schedules. Tampa has the aforementioned matchups with Chicago and Baltimore, while LAA has to deal with Texas—a team that still has to clinch the AL West—this weekend, and then a road trip at pesky Seattle. The Angels have to face Felix Hernandez on Monday, and as NFL fans now know, some strange things can happen in Seattle on a Monday Night.

AL EAST: Baltimore’s not just looking over their shoulder in the wild-card race, they’re looking ahead in the division race. New York lost the opener of a four-game set in Toronto last night and the Yankee lead is back to a single game. The Yanks will finish out their series north of the border, and Baltimore has that tough series in Tampa ahead. That leaves the Boston Red Sox to possibly settle the division, as they pay a visit to Camden Yards this weekend and the Bronx next week. The pitching for Boston has Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester pitching against the Yankees, and while they doesn’t mean the same this year as it has in years past, I’m sure it’s not a situation Joe Girardi finds idea.

The Yanks, meanwhile, have to feel heartened by the strong outings from Andy Pettite and C.C. Sabathia of late and these two, along with consistent Hiroki Kuroda, will pitch four of the remaining games. Any time a race is this close, anything can happen, but the matchups—plus having the one-game edge—work in New York’s favor.

AL WEST: I suppose you can read Texas’ split of a four-game set with Oakland earlier this week any way you want—because the Rangers have a four-game cushion, they held the course and knocked a few more days off the calendar. But if you’re Oakland you look at that three-game home set with Texas to end the year and figure you dodged the bullet on the road and gave yourself a shot for the final games. The Rangers have hot pitchers Yu Darvish and Derek Holland set up to pitch once apiece, while Ryan Dempster will go twice.

NL WILD-CARD: The race that seemed to be heading for a glorious mess suddenly cleaned up and got stable. St. Louis mostly took care of business in games against Houston and Chicago, while Milwaukee and Los Angeles couldn’t keep pace. The Brewers, at four back, are realistically done, while the Dodgers at three out have a tough uphill fight. St. Louis does have to go on the road to play Washington and Cincinnati. The Cards have Adam Wainwright set to pitch twice, and 16-game winner Kyle Lohse goes Saturday, meaning he’s another one who can go on three days rest if need be.

The one caveat in all this is that the Dodgers have three home games with lowly Colorado ahead, while Milwaukee faces Houston & San Diego. It’s hard to see the Cards blowing this, but after last year’s ending, they’re the last franchise that would ever write anybody else off.

NL EAST: Atlanta’s gotten hot and is still chasing Washington at four games back. But unlike Oakland, the Braves don’t get head-to-head games with the leader, so this is a longshot. But Atlanta does have the favorable schedule, playing at home against the Mets, then on the road against the collapsing Pirates whose fans have again forgotten they exist. Kris Medlen, perhaps the hottest starting pitcher in baseball is going on Sunday, which works perfectly for bringing him back on normal rest for the wild-card game on Friday, so perhaps that tells you what manager Fredi Gonzalez is thinking. Washington does have to play at St. Louis this weekend and then hosts Philadelphia, a team they just took two of three from.

HOMEFIELD ADVANTAGE: Texas & Washington are holding down the #1 seeds, although neither one is in the bag. New York is two back of Texas and would win a tiebreaker, while Washington is only plus-one on Cincinnati. Further down the bracket, the AL Central winner is locked into the #3 seed. Over in the NL, Western Division champ San Francisco is two back of Cincy to try and get the two-spot and earn homefield for at least the Division Series.

FIGHTING FOR .500: Nothing can change the disappointment Philadelphia fans over this season, but in the big picture they’ll appreciate it if their 78-78 team can post their seventh straight winning season. Those are the kind of streaks that look very good as they build up, even if some individual years are a disappointment. On that same note, that’s the worst part of the Pittsburgh collapse—at 76-80, the Pirates have to sweep their home games with the Reds & Braves to have their first winning season since 1992, and with just two losses extend their historic streak of losing seasons.

AT THE BETTING WINDOW: Earlier this week, we reviewed how each team was doing against the Over/Under win totals that were posted in Las Vegas at the start of the season. The Yankees, Rays and Brewers were the teams whose number was in serious doubt. If you bet New York to go Over, you’re still sweating, needing them to split their last six. Milwaukee needs to sweep to go Over, although a 5-1 closing record and push is realistic. Tampa Bay’s given their bettors nervous moments, but at 86-70, they look set to go Over the posted number of 87.

LOOKING AHEAD: The wild-card games are both held Friday, with Thursday being reserved for any one-game playoffs. Please note that division races—notably the AL East—that may end in a tie, with both teams going postseason, will now be settled in a one-game playoff. Previous rules had used tiebreakers to see the teams, but with the reward of a division title so much higher under the new format, they now play it off. Any deadlocks that are just over homefield advantage in the Division Series are still settled via the head-to-head tiebreaker system.  Division Series play begins on Saturday with the 2 vs. 3 bracket in both leagues, and then the 1-seeds open on Sunday against the wild-card winners.

Here at TheSportsNotebook we’ll chronicle all the races outlined here, and also mix in articles picking a season-ending All-Star team in both leagues, plus separate posts with final MVP selections. All that’s on tap between now and Friday, and then it’s time to start previewing the battles of October.

 

Do-or-Die Time For Angels & Rays In MLB Playoff Race

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The Pittsburgh Pirates all but kissed their fading playoff hopes goodbye earlier this week when they lost three straight at home to the Milwaukee Brewers, and the “Buccos”, as the locals on the Allegheny River call them might get some more company in the coming few days as even the most optimistic observer of the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays recognizes that these teams are down to zero margin for error as we size up the MLB playoff race entering the weekend’s games.

Los Angeles dropped two of three at home to Texas, and Tampa Bay split four on their homefield with Boston, all the while New York and Baltimore were administering sweeps. The wild-card picture is perilously close to being pseudo-settled, as we pencil in Oakland against the AL East runner-up and with the Angels 4.5 games out and Tampa Bay a full five back, it will take something dramatic on both ends to alter that picture.

The Rays have a chance to do something bold this weekend as Toronto, fresh off getting beaten three straight in the Bronx pays a visit to the Trop, but the Angels have a tough weekend ahead. Chicago comes west, and the White Sox are still barely clinging to a two-game lead in the AL Central over Detroit. The Angels get a break in that they won’t face Chris Sale, but LAA’s temperamental bullpen continues to do them in, as Ernesto Frieri took the loss last night, and as we noted Wednesday in discussing this team in conjunction with the AL East, Los Angeles simply has given away any cushion it had for blown saves. With the Angel pen being the American League’s worst at closing saves, there’s no reason to assume they won’t cough up at least one more and at this point in the season that’s all it takes.

Another team that will be counting blown saves if they miss the playoffs is the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the worst save percentage in the National League, but Milwaukee is coming on because it’s a problem that seems to be in the past. John Axford nailed down all three wins in Pittsburgh and Francisco Rodriguez has started to pitch better. No one’s going to compare them to the 1990 Nasty Boys in Cincinnati (Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, Randy Myers) that won the World Series and turned Dibble into a brief celebrity on ESPN Radio, but Brewer opponents can no longer feel like they’re in command of the game if they trail 5-4 after seven. Milwaukee’s sweep of Pittsburgh has nudged them past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the wild-card race with only St. Louis still to catch.

The next week of games is going to be St. Louis’ opportunity to put the final playoff berth away. Milwaukee continues its road trip with four games in Washington, followed by three more in Cincinnati. Both teams still have divisions to clinch, particularly the Nationals who’s 5.5 game over Atlanta is comfortable, but not so much that a team will let its foot off the gas. Meanwhile, St. Louis plays road games against the Cubs and Astros, with Chris Carpenter making his return to the  mound this afternoon in Wrigley.

If St. Louis can’t finish off Milwaukee and Los Angeles (who is in Cincy this weekend) by the time we get to next Thursday, the schedule flips in the Brewers’ favor. Then it’s St. Louis who’d been playing the Nats and Reds, while the Brewers host the Astros and Padres. While one might think St. Louis would play two teams who have nothing to play for, remember Washington and Cincy might not be resting starters. With the wild-card game there’s now an extra day off for division winners before their three-of-five series’ begins. Which means, for example, that Cincinnati could line up Johnny Cueto to pitch the opener of a three-game set against St. Louis and have him on normal rest for Game 1, and do the same down the line with Mat Latos and Bronson Arroyo.

In other action this weekend, Baltimore finishes a nine-game road swing in Boston, with Oriole manager Buck Showalter reminding people that the Orioles spoiled the Red Sox’ playoff hopes in the season finale last year and that Boston would surely like to do the same. It’s a good motivational reminder from Buck, but speaking as a Sox fan, I can say that presumes this current Boston lineup is motivated by anything other than the desire for a new manager next year. And just as a fan, I’d much rather ruin the Yankees’ season in the final weekend at the Bronx. I think you always root for your own team, regardless of the consequences in the biger picture, but let’s just say if the Sox lost this series, I’d take it considerably better than any other loss in the last ten years.

Speaking of those dastardly Yanks, they are hosting Oakland, which is the last set of games New York plays against a contender. And Detroit hosts Minnesota. With the Tigers two games back, they have to be thinking about a home sweep in this spot and then if the Angels get two must-win games against the White Sox, it would bring the AL Central back to even.

AL Central Race Looms Larger As Tigers & White Sox Both Slump

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The American League wild-card race might not be clear, but it’s starting to look we might have one fewer contestant for the two berths in the one-game showdown that will kickstart the MLB playoffs in less than a month. The AL Central race between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox is starting to look like a winner-take-all affair. The Tigers went west over the weekend and were swept by the Los Angeles Angels. The White Sox dropped two of three to Kansas City and concluded a six-game homestand where they could only split against the Royals and Twins. Detroit, currently two games back in the division race is now 4.5 back in the wild-card race and have the Angels, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles all to catch. With only three and a half weeks to go in the regular season that’s going to take a lot.

Furthermore, let’s not the obvious which is that if Detroit gets that hot, the wild-card won’t be relevant to them—they’ll win the AL Central. Both the Tigers and White Sox have to stop their current backpedal to the finish line. And since they go head-to-head in a four-game series to start the week it’s apparent that such a double hot streak can’t begin until at least Friday.

That might hurt the AL Central’s wild-card chances, but it sure ratchets up the intensity for these coming four nights on the South Side. Just a week ago Detroit beat Chicago three straight in Comerica Park, and now the White Sox try to return the favor. And just like in that previous series, the schedule works out so that Justin Verlander and Chris Sale each pitch the finale.

The Detroit-ChiSox battle is the biggest in the first half of the week, but two more showdowns are going to be crucial in the American League race, both wild-card and for division titles. The Orioles & Rays go head-to-head in Camden Yards. Baltimore split four with the Yanks over the weekend to stay one game back in the East, while Tampa grabbed two of three from Texas to keep within two games. What are the odds that when you said “AL East Showdown” for this spot in the schedule, you’d be thinking Rays-Orioles, and not Yanks-Red Sox, who hook up in the Fens? Boston is collapsing fast and if they’re interested in playing spoiler at all, we’ve seen precious little evidence on the field. If we don’t see it at home these next three nights, it’s never going to surface—and with still two more series against Baltimore and one more against New York, the Red Sox state of mind will be a factor in this race.

Los Angeles ‘ sweep of Detroit has pulled them even with Tampa Bay and both teams are only one game back of Baltimore for the last berth. Oakland, currently the #1 wild-card, has a 2.5 game cushion between themselves and elimination. Now the Angels host the A’s for a three-game set, though the hot Halos have a biceps problem for Jered Weaver looming over their heads and the ace’s start in Wednesday’s matinee finale is in question.

These three big series are where the action is at in baseball this week and over the next three days, TheSportsNotebook will essentially tune up for the playoffs, but having morning reaction to the results from all three locales, the same as will be the case for each day of the postseason.

Here’s the rundown on other series involving the contenders…

Pittsburgh-Cincinnati: The standings tell us the Pirates are a contender, only 2.5 games out of the playoffs. The results on the field tell us they just lost three straight to the Cubs, concluding a 2-4 homestand where the Astros were the other opponent. Their only hope is lack of focus from Cincinnati, who has run away with the Central.

Washington-NY Mets: Wednesday’s game will be the focal point, as John Lannan gets the ball. It’s Lannan who’s taking the place of the now-shutdown Stephen Strasburg. Keep in mind while Washington’s lead of 5.5 games is comfortable, it’s not insurmountable.

Atlanta-Milwaukee: The Braves just polished off the Mets three straight and have opened up a seven-game lead for one of the wild-card berths. After last year, no one in Atlanta is going to breathe too easy, and the Brewers are sneaking up on the .500 mark, having just knocked off St. Louis in a road series this weekend. Where I write, just outside of Milwaukee, there’s cautious talk of a miracle September run, although the Brewers would need to sweep a series like this for such talk to go beyond the hard-core fan base.

San Francisco-Colorado: Great weekend for the Giants, who grabbed two wins over the Dodgers and hold a 5.5 game lead in the NL West. Between now and the season-ending series with their rival to the south, San Fran has an exclusive diet of Arizona, Colorado and San Diego. It’s all there for the Giants to clinch before the final battle with the Dodgers even begins.

LA Dodgers-Arizona: Clayton Kershaw is dealing with a nagging injury, but is expected to pitch tonight to open the two-game series. This is a sandwich spot for the Dodgers, right between the weekend in Frisco and a coming four-game set with St. Louis, with whom they are battling for the last wild-card slot.

St. Louis-San Diego: The Cards come off a disappointing home series with Milwaukee, losing two of three and have been unable to put distance between themselves and the slumping Pirates and the sluggish Dodgers. Now they start a West Coast swing that could leave them regretting missed opportunity.

Cleveland-Texas:  Ron Washington’s Rangers can’t shake Oakland and the AL West lead is just 3.5 games, but after finishing a weekend in Tampa Bay—and two series with the Rays over the last week and a half—the Texas schedule gets easier and it starts right here.