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Spurs-Thunder series

2014 NBA Conference Finals Preview

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The 2013 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs were one of the best in the league’s history, especially the final two games. Both teams have made it back to the NBA conference finals, and if the oddsmakers are to be believed, a rematch looks in order.

Miami is a heavy (-440) favorite to beat the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals that begin on Sunday (3:30 PM ET, ABC). San Antonio isn’t quite as strong, posted at (-215) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, as the Western Conference Finals get set to tip on Monday (9 PM ET, TNT), although with word that OkC forward Serge Ibaka is out, that may change.


Is there any way that Indiana or Oklahoma City—the preseason NBA Finals picks here at TheSportsNotebook can pull off series upsets? Here’s few brief thoughts on each series in the 2014 NBA conference finals…

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Indiana Pacers-Miami Heat

Both of these teams struggled down the stretch. Indiana’s fade was widely chronicled in the media, but what was overlooked is that the Heat still failed to catch them for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. There was a belief that Miami was just holding something in reserve for the playoffs. Early returns through the first two rounds suggest that belief was accurate.

Miami has rolled through Charlotte and Brooklyn with an 8-1 record. While that’s nothing compared to what Western Conference teams endure in the playoffs, it’s at least as difficult as Indiana’s slate of Atlanta and Washington. The Pacers have lost five games in these playoffs and been pushed to the brink by a Hawks team that went 39-43 in the regular season.

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Yet the flip side to this is that Indiana stepped up its game against Washington, a series where a lot of people—including yours truly, who picked them to win it all in October and stood by it through much of the slump—finally threw in the towel and said the Pacers were finito. Roy Hibbert bounced back and had some good games. David West stepped it up and showed leadership off the court, and some big-time scoring on it, including 29 points in a Game 6 road win to ice the series.

All of that’s nice, it speaks well to Indiana’s ability to turn themselves around. But is it enough against the Heat? Frankly, it might be.

LeBron James has had to carry this Miami team like no other. I won’t go so far as to say it’s reminiscent of the Cleveland days, when he dragged four guys from my Wednesday night men’s league into the 2007 NBA Finals with him, but it’s close to it. If Indiana could play like the Pacers of old (and by “old”, I mean January), they can win the series, particularly with homecourt advantage.

Miami has no answer for Hibbert and West down low. Indiana is the ideally constructed team to beat the Heat. But that presumes that Indiana is all the way back, and while there are some positive signs, I think everyone is right to be gunshy about this team.

I’m going to pick the Pacers to win this series in seven games, but honestly, that’s more out of deference to my preseason prediction. In reality, I just want to see what Indiana can show the first two games on this home floor, to see if this is still the Pacer team I once believed in.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder

The league’s MVP goes up against the league’s best team, as Kevin Durant faces the 62-win Spurs. Sitting here on Saturday morning as I write this, the injury to Ibaka has taken a lot of the steam out of this series. The OkC power forward is the only player who can match up with Tim Duncan down low. Without him, San Antonio can feel free to extend their defense without consequence.

But the flip side is that Tony Parker only played ten minutes in the close-out game of San Antonio’s series win over Portland. Recall that Parker tweaked a hamstring in Game 3 of last year’s Finals, and while he continued to play, was never the same. That injury cost San Antonio the championship last season. If he plays at something less than full health this year, it could deny the Spurs a repeat trip to the Finals.

Duncan is still a solid player, but with a watered-down Parker, Oklahoma City would have not just the best player on the floor, but the best two players on the floor in Durant and Russell Westbrook. San Antonio is a wonderful team, brilliantly coached, with solid depth and everyone understands their roles. But the NBA playoffs are about stars, and having the two best guys on the court is a pretty big edge in a best-of-seven series.

I’m picking the Thunder, again in deference to my preseason pick, and again, I want to watch the opening of this series to get a read on how much Parker will be able to give. But I’m picking Oklahoma City with more conviction that I am with Indiana, and I’d actually step up and bet the Thunder at underdog prices. 

NBA Playoffs: Oklahoma City Wins The West

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The Oklahoma City Thunder continued to exploit one persistent flaw of the San Antonio Spurs as they turned a 63-48 halftime deficit into a 107-99 win that wrapped up the Western Conference Finals in six games and completed a stunning turnabout where the Spurs went from coronated champs to losers of four straight.

While TheSportsNotebook pleads guilty with the rest of the sports media to the charge of picking the Spurs to win this series and the NBA title, I also plead for mercy on the grounds that this was one of the few outlets that at least noted the Spurs were having some issues with their defense that are not characteristic of great championship teams. Even in winning the first two games of the conference finals the problem nagged and finally a team as a talented as Oklahoma City just broke through and poured on the points.

OkC shot 50 percent from the floor in the Game 6 win and they also attacked the glass, winning that battle 42-34. Just as impressive was that they took away the Spurs’ depth edge, which is the biggest reason they were the #1 seed in the West to begin with. San Antonio’s offense was exclusively reliant on Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, who each played like veteran stars in a survival game, combining for 48 points, and Stephen Jackson with his 23. But without the customary scoring balance, San Antonio was in a 3-on-3 battle with Oklahoma City and that’s a battle the Thunder will win 11 times out of 10. Kevin Durant was at his best, knocking down 34 points and crashing for 14 rebounds, while Russell Westbrook had 25. Just as important, each star shot better than 50 percent from the floor so the points came efficiently and James Harden kicked in 16 off the bench.

What impresses me the most about this Oklahoma City team is their obvious hunger for a title, even though they’re young and presumably have more shots left. They play these games with the sustained intensity that people keep waiting to see from the Miami Heat. We’ll look more into the Thunder next Tuesday morning when TheSportsNotebook previews the NBA Finals, but for now let’s segueway into Miami and their survival battle in Boston tonight.

Miami has, quite frankly, embarrassed itself by being in this position. That’s not the cocksure comment of a Celtics fan like myself—to the contrary I’m a quivering ball of nerves this morning waiting for the game. I’m saying the Heat are an embarrassment if they win this series, since a seven-game win over Boston proves only that the Heat are marginally better than Philadelphia. Of course it gives LeBron, Dwayne Wade & Co., a chance for vindication, but the Celtics have a moral victory and a half just by getting to this point.

What I’m wondering about with the Heat is their mental stamina. We talk a great deal, as we should, about Boston’s physical stamina. But mental toughness and playing hard, cohesive basketball for four quarters at a time, an entire series at a time, takes conditioning as well. As any coach will tell you, you can’t turn it on and off. I watch Miami and wonder if they’ve developed the mental conditioning necessary to make it all the way to a championship. Because when this team is locked in, they are unstoppable, particularly at the defensive end where titles are won. If they’re locked in for four quarters tonight, they’re going to win. But right now the fact they only play 2.5 to 3 quarters of basketball at a high mental level has counterbalanced Boston’s physical shortcomings. Somewhere along the line the coach has to be held accountable. There’s no doubt Erik Spoelstra will be accountable if his team’s season ends tonight or Saturday night back home—or for that matter, anywhere short of a champagne celebration after the Finals. Maybe the real question is whether or not Miami team president Pat Riley should make history and fire his coach mid-series and come onto the bench himself. Because Riley knew as well as anyone that mental toughness is developed over a season, not flipped on with a switch. Miami now has to show it for two straight games just to avoid an embarrassing loss.

NBA Playoffs: Heat’s Passive Offense Gives Celtics Game 5

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The Boston Celtics continue to follow in the path of the Oklahoma City Thunder, as each underdog in the conference finals has moved to take control of the series. Boston did its part last night with a 94-90 win in Miami to put them within one game of the NBA Finals, a development nothing short of stunning to anyone who followed the Celtics for the first half of the regular season or even the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Kevin Garnett was superb last night with 26 points and 11 rebounds. And while Paul Pierce’s overall numbers were not efficient—6-of-19 shooting, he hit several big shots in the second half including a three-pointer in the face of LeBron James that gave the C’s a 90-86 lead.

But it’s really Miami’s offense that I look at as far as an overall key to the game. The Heat are not going to beat the Celtics shooting over the top, yet they launched 26 treys, making only seven. Some of this bad luck—Mario Challmes, a genuinely good three-point shooter went 1-for-5.  But LeBron James went 2-for-6. To give you the perspective of a Boston fan, when I see LeBron or Wade take a three, I immediately think “good defensive possession.”

That’s not to say they can’t hit the shot—James buried a big one in Game 4 and Wade came within one bounce of doing the same with one that could have won that game. But at the end of the day, if the Heat win this series, I want them to do it going over the top. If they shoot the ball and win, more power to them. Because, as ESPN’s Jeff Van Gundy is correctly harping on, Wade and James are at their most effective going to the basket. With Avery Bradley injured, the Celtics have no real defensive stopper on the perimeter and if nothing else, drives to the basket can create foul trouble with Garnett.

So with help from a cooperative Miami offense, the Celtics won because the held the Heat just under 40 percent shooting and can now clinch the East on Thursday night in Game 6.

Before we get to Boston, we have to go to Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder being one home win from the Finals isn’t as surprising as the Celtics, but the Thunder had a more respected and hotter opponent to go through in San Antonio. Tonight’s game is about Tony Parker. If the Spur guard can get back into the flow of the offense, hitting his shot and creating looks for Manu Ginobli from downtown and Tim Duncan in the blocks, San Antonio can certainly win. Head coach Gregg Popovich was correct to point out that if his team can’t win one game on the road they don’t deserve to be champions anyway. By this level of the postseason, no team should count on sweeping four at home, so while San Antonio would surely have preferred to avoid this do-or-die spot, they are still in the same position a realistic person would have placed them at the start of the series—needing to win one on the road.

San Antonio’s the opposite of Miami. We know the Heat can bring it and win because of their defensive ability, but they fade in and out and there’s questions about the intangibles. There’s no question marks about the effort and mental intensity the Spurs will bring tonight, but we’ve seen nothing in these playoffs and nothing in this series that suggest San Antonio can deliver a lockdown defensive effort—i.e., holding OkC to sub-40 percent shooting from the floor. That’s why Parker is going to have to play the game of his life tonight.

NBA Playoffs: Spurs Defensive Woes Give Thunder Game 5

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The San Antonio Spurs have gone from pre-ordained champions to on-the-verge-of-elimination because the bugaboos that were lurking in the background throughout the playoffs—mediocre defense and a lack of star power—came back to bite them again in a devastating 108-103 Game 5 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who now hold a 3-2 series lead and close it out at home on Wednesday night.

Oklahoma City shot 50 percent from the floor, something that should never happen to a championship team on its home floor, and that’s even with Russell Westbrook clanging up a 9-for-24 night as he got an inefficient 23 points. But say this for Westbrook—he didn’t retreat into a shell and he was still an effective passer, distributing 12 assists and helping Kevin Durant shoot 10-for-19 on his way to 27 and James Harden to knock down 20, including three of four from behind the arc.

While Tim Duncan was efficient at 18/12 and Manu Ginobli was spectacular, with a 34-point night that made it look like he’d visited the same Fountain of Youth that Boston’s Kevin Garnett stopped by, Tony Parker played his third straight subpar game—not coincidentally, all Spurs’ losses. Like Westbrook, Parker got his points with 20. But like Westbrook, it took a cold 5-of-14 shooting night to get there. And unlike Westbrook, Parker didn’t distribute the ball nearly as well. In fact, he went the other direction, with his five turnovers being the biggest culprit in San Antonio’s 21 miscues.

The Thunder got a second straight solid game from Kendrick Perkins at center. While he didn’t have the scoring outburst of Game 4, Perkins still grabbed 10 rebounds and provided a counterweight to the work of Duncan and Kawhi Leonard down low. Rebounding was still a San Antonio advantage, because OkC’s Serge Ibaka did nothing on the glass, but without Perkins’ work, the home team would have continued to hold serve.

Boston has matched Oklahoma City each step of the way through the conference finals, losing the first two at home and then turning the series around at home. The Thunder have set the bar high with a road Game 5 win and now the Celtics go into Miami tonight. The word is that Chris Bosh is going to play for the Heat. I’m not sold that this is a positive development for the Heat, at least not in the short term. Not because I buy into the notion that they’re a better team without him because it frees up LeBron and Dwayne Wade to have the ball more. A healthy Big Three makes for the best Miami team. But, for the first game back, there might well be adjustment problems.

Furthermore, I have to question how healthy Bosh really is. Prior to Game 4, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra was saying there was no timetable on the power forward’s return. Now they lose the game and Bosh is suddenly back? I guess no timetable can mean anything you want, but it usually he doesn’t mean a guy is in the lineup tomorrow. This smacks of a panic move by Miami. And ultimately, when the Heat bring the defensive intensity, they are the better team in this series. They just haven’t brought it for four quarters. If holding serve at home and at least assuring yourselves a Game 7 at home isn’t motivation to bring the defensive focus, I don’t know what will be.

NBA Playoffs: Game On In The East As Boston Ties Series

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The Boston Celtics followed the same path in the Eastern Conference Finals that the Oklahoma City Thunder blazed through in the West, and it’s to announce “Game On” to sports fans, as the Celtics won their second consecutive home game. The 93-91 overtime thriller evened up the series 2-2.

Boston dominated the first period and Miami owned the third quarter, while the Celtics had a narrow edge in the second quarter, and the Heat did the same in the fourth. For the simple storyline its how Miami fell behind by 18, had it a game by the start of the final period and ultimately pushed it into overtime. Neither team shot well from three-point range, but the Celtics 9-of-27 gave them a critical edge over the Heat’s 6-of-19. It wasn’t huge, but in a game like this it’s all that was needed, which means that even though Ray Allen’s 16 points didn’t mark him one the game’s top scorers, his re-emergence as a threat from downtown has changed this series.

It’s also important to note the Celtics basically held even on the boards, with Miami only leading this category 40-39. Nor was this the result of Rajon Rondo chasing down long rebounds, as the little point guard had only five. When Boston holds even in an area that’s a huge weakness, it’s going to spell trouble for the Heat and even with Chris Bosh out, there’s no reason Miami’s underachieving tandem of Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony can’t get the job done in this matchup.

Finally, we come to the stars. Paul Pierce and LeBron James were both efficient, scoring 23 and 29 respectively and each just narrowly under 50 percent from the floor. James bagged a wide-open three-pointer to tie the game at the end of regulation. This is the second straight season he’s nailed a monumental trey in Game 4 of the Boston series with the Celtics trying to pull even. Last year James’ team won and this year his team lost, but can we please include these shots in the evaluation of whether King James is a clutch player?  But both Pierce and LeBron fouled out down the stretch, the latter on a dubious call down low. As a Celtics fan, let’s just say it was the officiating break I’d been counting on getting at some point during the middle games in the Garden.

The last shot was taken by Dwayne Wade, a three-pointer that bounced off the rim and backboard before missing. Wade had 20 points, but at 7-of-22 shooting did not play well, and he was not effective in either game in Boston. Whether its defensive adjustments or being on the road, he’ll clearly have to step it up in Game 5.

Both East & West have their Games 5s the next two nights and in each case the winner here likely wins the series. Oklahoma City goes to San Antonio tonight. I had initially predicted this series to be won by the Spurs, but for things to be tied 2-2 (although I didn’t think home teams would be perfect). Therefore I’m not going to change my pick in spite of OkC’s recent form. But let’s say this—when Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are playing well, rebounding the ball and chipping in even a little offense, the Thunder are the best team in the NBA. As much as San Antonio needs Tony Parker—who went into a Wade-like funk on the road—to get back on his game, the Spurs need their depth on the frontcourt to neutralize Ibaka and Perkins. If they do that, they can survive the scoring from the Durant/Westbrook/Harden trio, particularly given Westbrook’s poor play in the conference finals for the second straight year.

NBA Playoffs: Boston Hits The Boards To Win Game 3

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The Boston Celtics aren’t going to go quietly in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals. Following in the mold of Oklahoma City out West, the Celtics responded to the home crowd by delivering a strong effort in a must-win spot over Miami and took Game 3 101-91 and cut the Heat’s series lead to 2-1.

Boston’s not been known for it’s rebounding, but they beat Miami to the glass consistently on Friday night, with a  44-32 advantage. Kevin Garnett owned the paint with 24 points/11 rebounds, while Paul Pierce stepped up with 23 of this own. As far as the Heat were concerned, LeBron James might has well have made the trip himself. LeBron dropped 34 and grabbed eight rebounds, but Dwayne Wade had a pedestrian (for him) 18 points and Shane Battier, Rony Turiaf and Joel Anthony managed to get through the game without anyone noticing them. This game was, in essence, Miami’s give-back of Game 1, when a tired Celtics team played flat for every quarter but one and the Heat won easily. This is no small thing—if you believe that close games will mostly balance themselves out, to give back a blowout is a big concession in a short series.

Oklahoma City looks to go from “back on the radar” to “firmly in the hunt to win the series” when they host San Antonio in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. If the Spurs are going to bounce back they absolutely must get Tim Duncan back in the flow of the offense and Duncan must get himself back to controlling the glass. In an ideal world, San Antonio would also tighten up defensively, but that’s been a spotty area throughout the playoffs. For their part, OkC shouldn’t count on forcing 21 turnovers like they did in Game 3. The Thunder need a big game from Kevin Durant, who hasn’t gone off in this series the way he did at key points against Dallas and the LA Lakers in earlier rounds. And to continue the ideal world theme, they could use a big game offensively from Russell Westbrook, but what’s more important is they need Westbrook to focus on distribution and defense if his shot is not falling.

NBA Playoffs: San Antonio Turnovers Give Game 3 To OkC

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As I watched the perfect playoff run of the San Antonio Spurs come to an unceremonious ending last night in Oklahoma City, I thought of a line by former Laker coach and current Heat president Pat Riley. In his book Showtime, the story of the 1987 Lakers, Riley recalled when his team won the first two games of the Finals over the Celtics in decisive fashion and then lost Game 3. “Great, Riley, recalled thinking. “No more talk about sweeps.” I wonder if Gregg Popovich, similarly hard-nosed, although less adept at covering it up as the Spurs head man, is thinking the same thing the morning after Oklahoma City opened up a can in Game 3, to the tune of 102-82.

The Popovich-Riley analogy is the positive view for San Antonio fans to take, and indeed, continuing to keep winning like they were was completely unrealistic. As Riley pointed out in his book, when teams reach this level of the postseason, they’ve done so because of effort. Oklahoma City was going to bring everything they had with their season on the line, just like Boston did back in 1987 (and on Wednesday night in Miami for that matter).

But the flip side to that is this—the Spurs let OkC beat them by 20 points mostly by self-infliction. Oklahoma City played well to be sure, but it was not their best game. They shot 45 percent, they only hit 6-of-22 from three-point range, they only won rebounding 44-41 and the trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden only had 47 points. But San Antonio committed 21 turnovers and only forced 7. Tony Parker, after being a hero in Game 2, was responsible for five of those turnovers. Tim Duncan had just two rebounds. So if you’re San Antonio you have to feel like a chance to put the series away slipped through your fingers, while Oklahoma City can feel like they still have a better game in their back pocket when these teams return to the floor on Saturday night.

Boston now tries to do what OkC pulled off and that’s get a survival win in Game 3 in front of a raucous crowd when they host Miami tonight. There’s been plenty of discussion of officiating going against the Celts in the first two games. As a C’s fan, I’m not unbiased obviously, and consequently this is an area I tend to avoid when it comes to my favorite teams, because we all remember the calls that went against our teams and forget any breaks we got.

The spate of technical fouls called on Boston in Game 1 were absurd, but also inconsequential given how decisively Miami won. The free throw disparity on Wednesday was disturbing, given how frequently the Heat settled for three-point shots and the Celts went to the hoop with greater ferocity than normal. But unless I actually rewatched the game and evaluated the calls individually, that’s a tough decision to make.  I do believe that the public controversy makes it more likely than what I was already expecting will come to pass—the league, wanting some drama for a Game 4, will get the C’s 40-50 free throws tonight. Now the officials have extra justification.

NBA Playoffs: San Antonio Survives Game 1

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If Sunday night is any indication, we’re in for an exciting Western Conference Finals in the NBA playoffs, because top-seeded San Antonio was pushed to the wire and then some, before finally beating Oklahoma City 101-98 to grab a 1-0 lead in the series.

Rebounding was key to the Spurs’ efforts, as they held a 50-43 edge on the glass, the one key statistical difference on a team-wise basis. If we dig a little deeper, while Tim Duncan deserves the obligatory praise for his 16 points/11 rebounds night, it’s more noteworthy that Thunder center Kendrick Perkins had only two rebounds. In TheSportsNotebook’s series preview, the importance of Perkins and power forward Serge Ibaka doing the dirty work was identified as critical to the OkC’s chances Ibaka’s seven boards were acceptable, if not outstanding, but Perkins can’t continue to be absent from the glass if his team is going to win.

A similar story exists in the backcourt. Manu Ginobli is getting a lot of deserved praise for his 26 points in leading the Spurs’ fourth quarter rally, but it’s at least as important to point out that Russell Westbrook had a tough night shooting the ball, going 7-for-21 from the floor and his 17 points are a low number for the team’s #2 scorer. If we hearken back to last year’s conference finals, Westbrook struggled against Dallas and one thing Oklahoma City fans have to be worried about is that when Westbrook is cold, he doesn’t move to distributing the ball and creating shots—he keeps gunning. At this point, it’s just one off-night. If it repeats itself on Tuesday then the Thunder have a problem.

As long as we’re on the subject of problems, let’s shift to Boston’s opener against Miami tonight in the Eastern Conference Finals. TheSportsNotebook’s series preview took about as pessimistic a view of the Celtics’ chances in this series as the rest of the mainstream media and the Las Vegas sportsbooks did. And the odds in Game 1 are even worse, as a team that’s already the walking wounded is just 48 hours removed from an emotional Game 7 win over Philadelphia.

An underrated problem for Boston is that young guard Avery Bradley is out for the rest of the postseason. Bradley was not only young legs on an old team, but he was the one Boston guard who could at least slow down Dwayne Wade. Now that task likely falls to Ray Allen, who’s playing on sore ankles and has to have energy on the offensive side if the Celtics are going to win. That’s called a double-whammy. If you’re Memorial Day festivities go into the night, I can’t think of too many reasons you should go out of your way to watch what’s likely to be a complete carnage in Game 1.

NBA Conference Finals Preview: San Antonio-Oklahoma City

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The NBA’s Western Conference Finals start on Sunday night when Oklahoma City goes to San Antonio. It’s a battle between not just the top two seeds in the West, but the teams with the best remaining records in the NBA and teams that have rolled through the first two rounds of the postseason at a combined record of 16-1. TheSportsNotebook previews the series…

If you’ve become bored with the slogging play of the Eastern Conference, then Spurs-Thunder should be a welcome respite. Each was in the league’s upper third during the regular season in pace (possessions per game) and they were the best two in offensive efficiency. It’s the best of both worlds—teams that play at a fast pace and still know how to execute in the process. The defenses—once adjusted for pace—were both good, albeit not great, and they are fairly even when it comes to crashing the boards.

While the general statistical outlook of each team is fundamentally the same, San Antonio and Oklahoma City have gotten there in different ways. For the Spurs, it’s all about quantity, and while Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are the clear leaders of the team, a slew of talent is run in and out by head coach Gregg Popovich around them. Parker and Duncan are the only players averaging 30-plus minutes per game in the postseason, with Manu Ginobli and Daniel Green drawing 25 minutes or so in the backcourt. Both guards are playing at a high efficiency level, scoring in double digits in the series wins against Utah and the LA Clippers and shooting well from both the floor and behind the three-point line. Gary Neal effectively spells Parker at the point and Stephen Jackson has been a big role player off the bench.

Jackson’s contributions come from hitting threes, and it’s that area that San Antonio has relied in—perhaps to access in its 8-0 start to the playoffs. The Spurs won three-point shooting against the Jazz by an astonishing 33-9 count in the four first-round games. Even more astonishing was that two-thirds of the production game from the bench, with a disproportionate amount from Jackson. The trend wasn’t quite as extreme against the Clippers, but San Antonio still hit 38 treys compared to 22 for their rivals. That’s an edge that’s extremely difficult to overcome, but it’s also tough to sustain over a long period of time.

Thus we come to the frontcourt and Duncan. The veteran is averaging 18 points/9 rebounds per game in the playoffs, but he needed more help on the boards during the Utah series, where the Spurs were beaten on the glass. They turned that around in the second round and with everybody—guards and all—helping in the rebound area, San Antonio enjoyed an advantage. It’s worth noting here that Popovich has taken away forward DeJuan Blair’s minutes and given them to Boris Diaw. Blair is a pure post player, while Diaw is a little more inclined to shoot a trey. This suggests the orientation to the three-ball is at least a little bit by design and if it becomes a problem the coach could also go back to Blair.

Oklahoma City’s reputation is that of being Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, right in that order. And that rep is mostly earned. Durant has been the league’s best player in the postseason, averaging 27 ppg and hitting every big shot, from the game-winner in the first-round opener against Dallas to the nothing-but-nylon trey he buried in the face of Ron Artest to take command of the Laker series. Westbrook’s not far behind at 24 ppg, while Harden is averaging 17, including a big 29-point game on the road to clinch the Dallas series.

The Thunder’s key players have given them an advantage at crunch time. There’s no obvious statistical edge they’ve enjoyed against either the Mavs or the Lakers, but it’s the young Thunder who’ve consistently made the biggest plays at the biggest moments, and done it against the teams who have won the last three NBA titles and the last four Western Conference titles. If they add to the Spurs to the list, you could make those numbers four of the last five NBA crowns and all five West winners. If there’s a changing of the guard in the works this season, a Hollywood scriptwriter couldn’t have plotted it any better.

But if OkC is to make that push into the NBA Finals, they need to be able to hit the boards the same way Utah did, which puts the burden on Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. And thus far in the playoffs, I’m disappointed with the board work these two interior starters have put forth. They combined to average a pedestrian 13 per game against Dallas. And while the team overall hung in well against the Lakers, ending up (-2) for the series against a team with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, that was as much Durant hitting the glass as it was Ibaka and Perkins. Championship teams have to have players like these filling their roles to perfection and this series will be the first one anywhere in the playoffs where each team will have to play to a championship level.

You can run this series a lot of different ways. San Antonio’s got the championship mojo with Parker and Duncan and a load of depth. But OkC’s shown they can handle teams with the mojo and you can argue that big games in the NBA are more about stars than about depth—and the Thunder have got the brightest stars of any team outside Miami. Of course if you play that card on Oklahoma City’s behalf, San Antonio can counter that Parker and Duncan might be older, but they can still play like elite players in big games. If we look at a concern for the Spurs being the reliance on three-point shooting, it’s counterbalanced by concern over Ibaka and Perkins’ play thus far—forcing misses doesn’t mean as much if you’re not the team rebounding those misses, and if the Spurs beat Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to the glass, they can beat Ibaka and Perkins.

Like I said, you can spin it a lot of ways and have it spin right back at you. But one thing I am convinced of is that Oklahoma City is not getting enough respect. You can bet them to win the series at (+160), while taking San Antonio requires you to give a (-190) price. For those not familiar with the terms, if you bet $100 on OkC you win $160. If you want to win a hundred bucks on the Spurs, you have to bet $190 to get it. I think San Antonio’s going to win this series and ultimately the NBA title, but I’m not so sure of it to expose myself at that level. I’m looking for the teams to split the first four games, with each winning one on the road, then San Antonio to win a nailbiter in Game 5 and then eke out one more tough win on the road in Game 6, as Duncan continues to smell his fifth ring.

The Boston-Miami series for the Eastern Conference Finals begins Monday night. You can preview that series here.