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College Football Coverage: Three-Team Race In The SEC East

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The three-team fight for supremacy in the SEC East should be as entertaining a race as any in college football this year. You can make a good argument for any of Georgia, Florida or South Carolina to win the division.

You can make a good argument that any of the three could beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 7, and from there, the recent history of this conference tells you that it’s likely any of the three could move on and play for a national championship.

Georgia won the division last year. South Carolina won it in 2010 and won 11 games a year ago. Florida returned to prominence under Wil Muschamp and reached the Sugar Bowl, as well as being the one program in the group with a recent history of national championships. Today’s college football coverage gives a breakdown on how all three look coming into 2013…


THE BIG THREE

South Carolina: The Gamecocks have some restocking to do at the skill spots, after the devastating knee injury to Marcus Lattimore in the latter part of last season and the departure of their leading receivers. But with a veteran offensive line and senior quarterback Connor Shaw having been through the SEC wars, Steve Spurrier has a good base to build from.

It’s the defense that carries this team, with heralded defensive end Jadeveon Clowney leading the defensive front and the secondary being filled with experience. South Carolina can get pressure on the quarterback and cover. It will up to some new linebackers to help in plugging the run.

Georgia: Aaron Murray is at the trigger of what might be the best offense in the country. Already an explosive unit, Murray will be in his third year as starter, and Todd Gurley is a top running back. There are four starters back on the offensive front.

The Bulldogs were not a tough defensive team a year ago, something that became apparent when Alabama outhit them in the second half of the SEC title game. I suppose that means rebuilding the front seven isn’t bad, but putting a group of underclassmen into this conference’s wars means short-term pain. The secondary is also rebuilding, and it’s likely highly touted freshman free safety Tray Matthews will get playing time right away.

Florida: Of the three contenders, the Gators are the least set at quarterback. Jeff Driskell is back, but he’s not as explosive as Murray, nor as tough and versatile as Shaw. In reality, Florida’s signal-caller is kind of boring. That works when you play great defense and run the ball, but running back Mike Gillislee is gone, the offensive line is young, as is the defensive front seven.

The Gators will be strong in the secondary, something that can at least help them match up with Georgia. And it’s worth noting that Florida doesn’t have to play either of their two key rivals until November, when Muschamp will have had time to get the new faces in place.

THE ROAD TO ATLANTA

I see Florida as a step behind in this race, and if that’s true, that means this race is going to have an early frontrunner. The South Carolina-Georgia game in Athens will be on September 7, the second game of the year for both teams. Both are jumping right in with preparation—rather than fatten up with an easy opener, the Dawgs will go to Clemson and the Gamecocks will host North Carolina.

There’s a certain philosophical divide in any debate over Georgia and South Carolina, namely, whether you like offense or defense. I like defense, and that leans me in the Gamecocks’ direction. But I also consider South Carolina’s offense to be above average, while I’m not sold that Georgia’s defense is the same.

South Carolina’s program has been a slow and steady rise ever since Lou Holtz arrived in town 14 years ago and eventually gave way to Spurrier. This is now a consistently competitive team, and it’s time for them to take the next step—to make a major bowl game and put themselves in the national title discussion on the first Saturday in December. I’m betting they do it.

THE BOWL CONTENDERS

Vanderbilt leads up the next tier in the conference, which would be teams that have no realistic shot at Atlanta, but could be the kind of spoiler that might spring an upset on one of the top three, and at the very least, put together an eight-win season.


The Commodores have become a winning program in the two years under James Franklin, and while they have to replace quarterback Jordan Rodgers and running back Zac Stacy, they have an experienced offensive line and a senior-laden lineup on defense.

Tennessee is starting a new era under Butch Jones, and I’m not sold that Jones can get the Vols back to where they want to be—which is in the championship discussion. But the former Cincinnati boss can get them back to a bowl game, and this is another team with a veteran offensive line and defense that will carry the load while a new quarterback is found.  The new signal-caller will be able to grow with four-star freshman receiver MarQuez North

Missouri had a rough go of it in their first year in the SEC, winning just two conference games, but they still won five overall. The offense will be interesting—James Franklin is a versatile, albeit somewhat inconsistent quarterback. And there are two possible breakouts at wide receiver and tight end. Dorial Green-Beckham on the flank, and Sean Culkin at TE were top-flight recruits two years ago and ready to take their places in the lineup.

The defense for Mizzou will be no less interesting, with a lot of new starters, but the experience is on the front line, and the back seven has seniors stepping into starting jobs. In the end Missouri being “interesting” probably amounts to an up-and-down six-win year, which at least gets them back into a bowl.

THE ALSO-RAN

Mark Stoops has taken over the Kentucky program. Ten of his 22 starters will be sophomores. The trenches will be stocked with an underclassmen. That’s not a formula for success in a physically tough league.

Read The SEC West Preview: Can Anyone Stop Alabama?
Read The Overall SEC Preview

SEC East Games Lead Up College Football Week 4 Undercard

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The SEC might not be involved in the marquee games on the card for college football Week 4, but the conference still has a good slate ahead, especially in the SEC East, where three notable intra-divisional matchups lead up the Saturday undercard.

South Carolina, Georgia and Florida are the favorites in the SEC East and all three will be at home, but each game provides at little bit of an upset possibility. The Gamecocks take on Missouri, a game where both quarterbacks are expected to play after shoulder injuries. In the case of South Carolina’s Connor Shaw it’s a hairline fracture that doctors say can’t get made any worse by contact. There’s still the question of pain tolerance and we have to see if Shaw is able to put his head down and run. His versatility is a big part of their offense and without it, it leaves room for defenses to key on Marcus Lattimore on the backfield. James Franklin, another two-threat quarterback, is expected to be ready for the Tigers.

Missouri was beaten up front in the fourth quarter against Georgia two weeks ago and when all is said and done, there’s no reason to think the same what happen here. That previous game was at home, with all the emotion of the program’s inaugural SEC game going for it, and they still lost the trench battle. South Carolina can get down and hit at least as well, if not better than Georgia and the Gamecocks will have a home crowd on their side. Lattimore should get his yards in the second half and South Carolina should open up a close game in around midway through the third quarter.

Speaking of Georgia, they’ll play host to Vanderbilt, and the Commodores have to be wondering if the optimism coming into the season justified. After making a bowl game a year ago, Vandy suffered a tough loss at home to South Carolina, then another tough loss on the road at Northwestern before blowing out Presbyterian. There’s no shame in either loss, there’s no honor in the win, so we know little about the Commodores except for the fact they must run the ball. If Zac Stacy can’t produce 100-125 yards on the ground, Vandy can’t keep Aaron Murray and that Georgia offense off the field. An offense which includes dynamite freshman running back Todd Gurley. I’m not ready to write off Vandy for bowl contention, even if they fall to 1-3, but they aren’t going to Athens and coming out with a win.

Florida’s home date with Kentucky normally wouldn’t raise an eyebrow, but the Gators are in a letdown spot after the biggest win of Wil Muschamp’s year-plus tenure last Saturday in Gainesville. And Kentucky will be hungry after losing to Western Kentucky in overtime. The loss to the Hilltoppers isn’t as bad as it might appear—you may recall WKU was the team Nick Saban scolded the media for overrating one week prior and Western Kentucky went out and played Alabama tougher than Arkansas did. But Kentucky also lost to Louisville handily, so there’s little doubt they are the third-best program in the state right now in spite of being over .500 in their first two years under Joker Phillips. If this game were in Lexington, I’d give the Wildcats a real shot at the upset. But on the road, I think the most they hope for is to make it closer than the experts say—and with the experts saying Florida’s a 24-point favorite, I think Kentucky beats that number handily.

The SEC West has a game of its own, as LSU hosts Auburn. I’m not entirely sold on LSU as a national title contender again this year, but I’m even less sold on Auburn’s ability to go into Baton Rouge and compete in a prime-time setting. LSU has still blown out respectable opponents in Washington & North Texas, they’re getting a balanced running game and the problematic Auburn offense, led by a freshman quarterback, is completely in over its head. One measuring stick to watch as far as LSU’s future prospects—how does quarterback Zach Mettenberg perform throwing the ball, as measured against the work Clemson’s Tajh Boyd did against this same Auburn defense in the season opener? Boyd, an ACC MVP candidate, went 24/34 for 208 yards. If Mettenberg can work at that same kind of efficiency, LSU can feel like they’re progressing as much as anyone can ask.

The Pac-12 has three cross-divisional games and all look competitive. SoCal will be hopping as both USC and UCLA are at home, going up against Cal and Oregon State respectively. And then Rich Rodriguez takes his juiced-up Arizona offense north to Oregon. The latter game should be fun, and the Over/Under on points is currently posted at 77.5 Mike Scott and the Wildcats will put up the points, but the problem they have is that Oregon can cover most of that number themselves.

USC is a solid 16-point favorite over Cal, but the Golden Bears can keep this one close. Cal, with Isi Sofele in the backfield can play the same kind of run-first style that bedeviled the Trojans last week at Stanford. In the end, Cal’s not at home, they don’t have Stanford’s history of beating USC and the Trojans are going to be desperate, so I don’t see an upset. But I do see USC struggling to put this one way.

Oregon State plays just its second game of the year after beating Wisconsin two weeks ago. Now that we’ve seen Wisconsin also struggle with Northern Iowa and Utah State at home, the Beavers’ 10-7 win in Corvallis looks less impressive by comparison and UCLA is running the ball in a way the Badgers are not. Oregon State will need to open up the offense, which they can do with Sean Mannion and a good package of three receivers. What’s in doubt as whether Mannion can push the pace without also throwing 2-3 interceptions and allowing the Bruin ground game, led by early Heisman candidate Jonathan Franklin, to take over. The guess here is that UCLA is too physical to lose this one at home.

Other noteworthy games…

*Temple can establish itself as the new football power in the state of Pennsyvlania when they visit Penn State on Saturday. The Lions have injury problems in the backfield, but Matt McGloin is playing well at quarterback and the Owls are doing some rebuilding. It probably takes another year for Temple’s rising program to replace Penn State’s falling one, and I like the Lions to win, although the way they play offense I’d never lay 7 ½ points on them against anybody.

*Miami went to Boston College in Week 1 and got an impressive ACC win. The Hurricanes have followed that up by getting hammered at Kansas State and then playing a poor game against Bethune-Cookman. But they’re still 1-0 in the ACC and play Coastal Division rival Georgia Tech, who’s fresh off pummeling Virginia. If the ‘Canes were pushed around by Bethune-Cookman, what happens against the physical Yellow Jackets?

*It wouldn’t be a college football Saturday in September if there weren’t an opportunity for the Big Ten to humiliate itself. A target spot would be Louisiana Tech’s visit to Illinois. The Bulldogs can move the ball in the air with Colby Cameron and they’re a program coming off a WAC title and near-miss against TCU in a bowl game last December. They’re also from the same league as Utah State, who nearly upset Wisconsin last Saturday. And Illinois’ low attendance is a problem, so this won’t be a wild road atmosphere. Keep an eye on this one.

*The Thursday night fare of Boise State-BYU lost some of its luster when each team lost a game in September, the Broncos at Michigan State and the Cougars at Utah. But with the last at-large bid to the BCS bowl games looking like anybody’s to talk, either team could still be a contender at 11-1, so this is an early elimination game for a major bowl slot.

Check back with TheSportsNotebook tomorrow, when our marquee Friday feature locks in on the three big prime-time games of Saturday—Michigan-Notre Dame, Kansas State-Oklahoma and Florida State-Clemson.

College Football Week 3 Recap

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There were a lot of disappointing teams in college football Week 3, from Michigan State to USC to Virginia Tech, but to me the most disappointing showing came from Tennessee in Saturday night’s 37-20 home loss to Florida. Not because the Vols played the worst, or suffered the most humiliating defeat. But because of what the loss says about where the program is at. With South Carolina and Georgia looking like strong contenders in the SEC East, Tennessee needed to win a game like this on their homefield to show that third-year coach Derek Dooley had the Vols moving to that same class. Instead, it’s Florida’s second-year man Wil Muschamp who gets the signature win and you have to wonder how much longer Dooley will get to prove he’s the man to return Tennessee to contending status just in the Eastern Division of this conference.

Tennessee wasn’t just beaten on Saturday night, they were pounded up front and in the second half. The Vols led 17-10 at halftime, but they couldn’t stop the Gator ground attack. Mike Gillislee rushed for 115 yards on 18 carries. Trey Burton added 91 more on just three attempts and mobile quarterback Jeff Driskell rushed for 84, while managing an efficient passing game. So it’s not just that Tennessee lost or even that they did so at home. But they lost to another school whose coach faced comparable question marks and lost in a way that tells you it wasn’t a fluke.

SEC East newcomer Missouri also has reason to be concerned. They got a 24-20 win over Arizona State, but we still don’t know how good the Sun Devils really are, and Mizzou certainly didn’t control the line of scrimmage or pace of play in any kind of definitive way. They needed four ASU turnovers to escape with a win on their homefield. The SEC East looks to be settling into a three-horse race between South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, the former two who each won easily against non-descript competition. And Alabama’s 52-zip smashing of Arkansas, combined with struggles from Mississippi State and Auburn against mid-major opponents tell us that the conventional wisdom is right on the money when it says the SEC West is all about the ‘Bama-LSU rematch in Baton Rouge come November.

Let’s go conference-by-conference with some brief thoughts on the results of Week 3…

Pac-12: Stanford didn’t just beat USC, they smacked the Trojans in the mouth. USC got only 26 yards rushing, while the more physical Cardinal went over 200 yards as a team behind Stephan Taylor, the running back who can now start to get his due with Andrew Luck in the NFL. The race is on the Pac-12 North, with Stanford getting this win, Oregon rolling in all its tune-ups and TheSportsNotebook’s favorite dark horse at Cal finally playing like I expected in turning in a good game at Ohio State before losing late.

Big 12: Oklahoma State made a quarterback change, going with J.W. Walsh and they pounded a good Sun Belt team in UL-Lafayette 65-24. Before you laugh at the notion of beating up on the Sun Belt being noteworthy, remember that UL-Monroe—who beat Arkansas and took Auburn is from that league. And Okie State’s Big 12 rival Kansas State couldn’t get a conventional running game against North Texas, a lower-tier Sun Belt team. Collin Klein’s versatility kept K-State in control, but the Mean Green shut down running back John Hubert.

ACC: Florida State was about as impressive you could possibly be in its 52-0 dismantling of Wake Forest. The Seminoles held Tanner Price to 8-of-22 passing for just 82 yards in spite of the fact the Demon Deacons were playing from behind from about the moment of the coin flip. The other side of the division was, to put it mildly, less impressive. Virginia Tech looked soft in a non-conference loss at Pitt, unable to run the ball or stop the run. Miami gave up over 200 yards on the ground to Bethune-Cookman, in a game the underdog hung around for three quarters. The division’s big game proved to be a clunker, as Georgia Tech ran over Virginia 56-20, with over 400 yards of rush offense. Mike London’s Cavaliers have a lot of work to do right the ship, given how fortunate they were to beat Penn State in the prior game.

Big Ten: This conference rolls on—a decisive loss in a marquee game, as Michigan State can’t run the ball on Notre Dame. A couple of narrow escapes, as Iowa futzed around with Northern Iowa before winning 27-16 and Wisconsin’s ultimate survival display when they beat Utah State 16-14 only because of a punt return for a touchdown and the Aggies’ missing a makeable field goal on the final play. An outright loss to a midmajor as Indiana commits twelve penalties and ultimately loses to Ball State 41-39. And a crowning insult game in Minnesota’s 28-23 win over Western Michigan. The insult being that the Broncos should be disappointed that Alex Carder was erratic in his passing, rather than taking a moral victory out of it.

Major Independents: I’m not going real deep into Notre Dame’s win over Michigan State other than to praise them for holding the Spartans to 50 yards on the ground. We’re going to look at the coming Irish schedule and their BCS bowl chances tomorrow, they have a marquee game against Michigan on Saturday that will be previewed and I don’t want to turn TheSportsNotebook into another arm of the Notre Dame Propaganda Machine, my Irish Catholic heritage notwithstanding. BYU has to be incredibly disappointed in their 24-21 loss to Utah. They allowed the Utes to score a defensive touchdown and then coughed up a second chance at a tying field goal when the Utah fans stormed the field too early after the initial kick was blocked. Riley Nelson was just not consistent enough in his passing for BYU to get a win they needed before the schedule gets tougher.

In The Middle Class (Big East & Mountain West)…

My preseason selection of Wyoming to win the Mountain West is officially a disaster and we haven’t played a conference game. The Cowboys dropped to 0-3 with a two-point loss to Cal-Poly on Saturday. While Wyoming was without starting quarterback Brett Smith, that’s not an excuse for this type of showing from a team that went to a bowl game a year ago. Overall this conference is shaping up well for Boise State, who played well defensively against a pretty good Miami (Ohio) passing game in a 39-12 win. Meanwhile, Nevada and San Diego State showed defensive holes in having to win shootouts over Northwestern State and North Dakota respectively.

And the Big East is looking like a good race that we’ll go into more detail in future weeks. For today let’s give a salute to Rutgers for the way they took over the second half last Thursday in South Florida. The Scarlet Knights got 151 yards on the ground from Jawan Jamison and eventually let Bulls’ quarterback B.J. Daniels toss up three picks as nothing worked for Skip Holtz’s offense. Rutgers turned a 6-3 halftime deficit into an impressive 23-13 win.

The Mid-Majors (Conference USA, Sun Belt, MAC, WAC)…

Toledo got a leg up in the MAC race with a conference win over Bowling Green. Keep in mind both teams gave power conference teams good tests (Toledo against Arizona and Bowling Green against Florida), so the Rockets’ win led by versatile quarterback Terrance Owens is perhaps an early hint that the Toledo-Ohio game is one we should circle in this conference race. The Bobcats downed Marshall in a matchup a good MAC team and good Conference USA team. It does have to be considered a red flag though, that Tyler Tettleton was on the erratic side against a defense that usually resembles a sieve.

In the WAC, Louisiana Tech is going to have consider playing some defense quickly. Last year’s league champion has seen their D lit up in wins against Houston and again Saturday against Rice. Since they’re winning and the league is not deep, the Bulldogs have some time to figure it out. But its clear Utah State, fresh off beating Utah and nearly beating Wisconsin, is capable of playing real football and Louisiana Tech will have to be prepared to match up defensively by the time the two rivals meet in November.

One of these weeks we’re going to give the Sun Belt an exclusive look, because this is a league that deserves better than to be melded into summaries of power conference results. Up and down the slate, teams are playing competitively and Western Kentucky upended Kentucky 32-31 in overtime on Saturday, joining UL-Monroe among the ranks of Sun Belt teams who beat an SEC bowl team from last year. Not bad.