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San Francisco Giants Preview

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The San Francisco Giants fell hard in the second half of last season, failing to even contend for the playoffs, after winning the World Series in both 2010 and 2012. Can the Giants get it back going and continue their even-numbered-year mastery? Here’s the Notebook Nine, our nine focal points on San Francisco as the new season begins…

*Las Vegas seems to think San Francisco will be much closer to its championship form of 2012 than to last year’s disappointment. The Giants’ 10-1 betting odds to win the National League pennant mean the betting markets see them as superior to playoff teams from last year in the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. San Francisco is 20-1 to win the World Series, better than not only the Reds & Pirates, but the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals from the American League, teams that came much closer to the postseason than did Frisco. The Giants’ Over/Under on the win props is 85.5.


*Any hope of a revival is going to depend on two aging starting pitchers and another who seems like he should be. The latter would be Tim Lincecum, who may be only 29, but already started to decline the last two years, presumably due to his throwing motion. In fairness, Lincecum’s 4.37 ERA in 2013 marked an improvement from ’12 and he threw a no-hitter, but he still seems light-years away from the Cy Young days of 2008-09. San Francisco needs a comeback year from 36-year-old Ryan Vogelsong and they also added 38-year-old Tim Hudson.

*The top of the rotation is in good hands. Madison Bumgarner may be only 24-years-old, but he’s already made 115 career starts, has a 3.08 career ERA and had his best year last season. The lefty doesn’t get the same hype as fellow NL West southpaw Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles, but don’t overlook Bumgarner. Then there’s Matt Cain, who had his toughest season since the rookie year of 2006. But Cain had strung together six high-quality seasons before that, is still 29, and should return to form.

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*San Francisco needs a power surge, and they’ve brought disgraced legend Barry Bonds into camp as an instructor. Is it too easy to say that unless Bonds brings his PED, not to bother? Yeah, but it’s probably true. The corner spots, the traditional power areas, are question marks, at least to some degree. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval has been below 15 home runs the last two years. Michael Morse, the left fielder, has declined sharply for two straight years. The hope is continued improvement from young first baseman Brandon Belt, who went deep 17 times, and for a good year from Hunter Pence. The rightfielder is good for 20-plus home runs, but his power to the alleys is wildly inconsistent.

*Buster Posey suffered a decline in 2013, but coming off an MVP year in 2012, that was to be expected. Posey still posted a stat line of .371 on-base percentage/.450 slugging percentage, good for any position and excellent compared to what most teams get at catcher. I think a year like this is even more significant than an MVP campaign, because the 2013 numbers are much more likely to replicate in future years.

*Sergio Romo had his first full year as the closer—he didn’t get the job until midstream in the 2012 World Series run—and Romo showed his strong showing in ’12 was no fluke. Romo closed 38/43 save chances with a 2.54 ERA. And unlike other top athletes named Romo in other sports, we at least know Sergio can get it done in a big spot.

*Bullpen depth has been a big part of this era of Giant success and Santiago Casilla quietly leads it up. Casilla has spent four years as one of the game’s elite setup men, rare in a position where excellence tends to come and go. After Casilla, manager Bruce Bochy has a trio of 30-something vets in Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Jean Machi, and as long as one or two of them keep pitching competently, the San Francisco bullpen will be good.

*Two big question marks in the lineup are with second baseman Marco Scutaro and centerfielder Angel Pagan. The former is having back problems and might not be ready Opening Day. Scutaro is also 38-years-old, which makes it fair to wonder if the back is simply going. Angel Pagan is in center and his season was marred by hamstring injuries last year.

*There are just a lot of holes in this lineup. Morse and shortstop Brandon Crawford are no-doubt-about-it liabilities. Posey is the only undisputed positive. If you’re feeling generous, include Belt and maybe even Pence in that group. But even those are question marks. Players like Sandoval and Pagan usually put up OBP’s in the .330-.340 range, which is right on the fringe of acceptable. When Posey slumps, where are the runs coming from?

That’s why I’m going Under 85.5. This team just does not resemble the championship teams of 2010 and 2012. The pitching is pretty good, but it’s not outstanding and it needs to be outstanding to carry along this offense. This looks like a .500 team to me and if the veteran back end of the rotation has problems I can see the bottom falling out.

MLB Coverage: San Francisco Sinks To The Bottom

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The National League West might be anybody’s to take in the second half, but there’s nothing about the San Francisco Giants that suggests they are ready to do the taken. The franchise that won its second World Series title in three seasons in 2012 is now 39-46 and in fifth place coming into Saturday’s games. The purpose of our MLB coverage here will be to establish whether pessimism is an overreaction to the present moment, or if serious structural flaws in the Giants are being exposed.

ROTATION DISASTER

Pitching has been the foundation stone of San Francisco’s success, but bit by bit, the starting pitching has been coming undone. Last year it was Tim Lincecum that struggled. He’ s not a whole lot better in 2013, with a 4.66 ERA in 17 starts, and the word on the street is that the Giants would like to stick him in the bullpen.

Doing that, however, would require other good options in the rotation, and those don’t exist. Ryan Vogelsong was enduring a horrific year, before hitting the 60-day disabled list and he’s not expected back until the end of this month at the earliest. Barry Zito, after last October’s heroic wins in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series and Game 1 of the World Series, has settled back into a comfortable mediocrity.


Even Matt Cain had his problems, getting off to a terrible start. While the staff ace has been stable for a couple months now, his ERA is still high, at 4.85. The only pitcher who looks anything resembling championship-caliber, is Madison Bumgarner. The lefty has a 3.08 ERA in his seventeen starts.

When you add up the cumulative effects of these problems they equate to a rotation that’s worse than everyone in the National League except Milwaukee.

POSEY CAN’T DO IT ALONE

San Francisco had kept themselves going for much of the first half with an offense that hit beyond what the general perception of this team would suggest. In this, the Giants were similar to the Tampa Bay Rays, in that they were a team built on pitching, but having to rely on the bats to carry struggling arms.

The Giants have reverted to type lately though, and are now down to 11th in the National League in runs scored. It’s not the fault of MVP catcher Buster Posey, who’s having another great year, with a stat line of .389 on-base percentage/.523 slugging percentage. Nor is it the fault of 2012 postseason hero Marco Scutaro, who has a .368 OBP.

But help beyond these two has been hard to find, and the biggest culprit is third baseman Pablo Sandoval, with his pathetic .302/.385 stat line. Beyond Sandoval, Hunter Pence has a nice .467 slugging percentage, but doesn’t get on base consistently. First baseman Brandon Belt is in the groove right now, with a .371/.519 stat line over the past month, but he’s got to show he can have sustained success.

Who else is going to help Posey? Brandon Crawford isn’t a hitter, and I wouldn’t place big expectations on Andres Torres or Gregor Blanco. The Giants have to get a drastic turnaround from Sandoval and at least modest improvement from a few other sources.

 

NO LEADS TO PROTECT

The San Francisco bullpen is having another stellar year, 4th-best in the National League, and that’s with Santiago Casilla having done a DL stint that will soon be over. The problem, obviously, is that when you can’t hit and your starting pitching is in the tank, that solid bullpen ERA just means more losses end up 5-2 rather than 8-2. But should the rest of the team turn around, the Giants’ relievers can fulfill what’s been a customary role in their recent success.

Manager Bruce Bochy has old reliables in Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and closer Sergio Romo to fall back on, along with Casilla when he returns. Jose Mijares is having a very good year, with a 2.43 ERA. And there are some young pieces on the rise, with 27-year-old Sandy Rosario, with a 2.50 ERA, and 24-year-old Jake Dunning, who’s been great in his eleven innings of work. On a less-stacked pen, Dunning might get more opportunities.

WILL THE FREEL FALL BE REVERSED?

The weakness of the NL West has already offered a new lease on life to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and there’s no reason it couldn’t do the same for the Giants. San Francisco is still a manageable 5 ½ games out.

I’m trying not to overreact to the present moment, but I’m finding it hard to see a revival of the rotation coming up in the second half. Sure, Cain can pitch better—a lot better, in fact. But Cain alone isn’t going to take a rotation that’s been this bad and suddenly make them good. San Francisco’s giving some starts to Michael Kickham, but his 12.15 ERA, including a shellacking at Cincinnati this week, tells you that’s something more likely to bear fruit in 2014 or 2015 rather than after the All-Star break.

San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean is known for his wheeling and dealing at this time of year, and if he wants to go for it, a trade for a starting pitcher could be made. But how “all-in” is it really wise to go? And for whom? Do the Giants make a push on a big name like a Cliff Lee or a Matt Garza? Or do they go the path Baltimore did earlier this week with  the deal for Scott Feldman, a plug-in sort of trade. The latter type of deal won’t fix what ails Frisco. The former might cost too much.

To me, when it comes to 2013, it boils down to Lincecum starting to resemble the pitcher he used to be. I’m not optimistic about that, and it’s why the only way I see San Francisco winning this division is if it ends up mimicking the NL Central from 1997 or 2006, when 83-84 wins sufficed.


AROUND THE NL WEST

Arizona (45-41): Trevor Cahill hitting the disabled list with a hip contusion is not what the struggling front-runner needs right now, and it gives hope to teams like San Fran, who are hoping mediocrity can get you to October.

Colorado (42-45): Dexter Fowler is another DL casualty, going out with a wrist injury.

LA Dodgers (41-44): Yep, they’re on the move, and into third place.

San Diego (40-47): It’s not surprising the Padres would stumble off the .500 pace they’d been flirting with, but I was kind of hoping Bud Black could keep them around for a while.