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San Francisco-Carolina

San Francisco-Carolina: 9 Takeaways From The 49er Defensive Display

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It seems we can’t have an NFC Championship Game without the San Francisco 49ers these days. With a 23-10 win in Carolina, San Fran made it for the third straight year under Jim Harbaugh, and for the twelfth time since 1981. This year’s 49er team did it as the only road team to win in the second round. Let’s run through the Notebook Nine points to takeaway from the San Francisco-Carolina game…

    • *What a defensive display this was by the 49ers. Carolina seemed to have some offense going early. The Panthers had a 10-6 lead and Cam Newton had thrown a beautiful 31-yard touchdown pass to Steve Smith down the sidelines. Newton won praise at halftime from CBS studio analyst Jimmy Johnson, and Smith’s bad knee appeared completely healed. Then San Francisco just took it over after halftime.


    • *Physical dominance of the line of scrimmage is usually the key to success, and it was again here. San Francisco held Carolina’s running backs to just 39 yards on the ground. The Niners produced five sacks, nine QB hits, with Ahmad Brooks spending as much time in the backfield is Newton. Carolina never looked even remotely ready to move the ball in the second half.
    • *San Francisco swung the momentum with a touchdown drive to end the first half, on a Colin Kaepernick-to-Vernon Davis touchdown pass. The play was originally ruled incomplete, even though Davis clearly dragged his second foot inbounds and right in front of the end zone official. I find myself asking this question a lot—how did this call even get missed on the field? Since it happened with under two minutes, a booth review overturned it, but had it not, why should San Francisco have had to use up a challenge on an obvious call with the official in perfect position? NFL officiating has to improve.
    • *San Francisco then sealed the momentum swing with a touchdown drive to open the second half and go up 20-10. Kaepernick ran it in from four yards out, and then did a mocking dance of Newton’s “Superman” move, before returning to his own kiss of his biceps. I really should find this classless, but there’s just something about the way Colin Kaepernick carries himself that I just love. The in-your-face move on Newton in his own house was either a sign that Kaepernick is fearless or that he’s a classless moron. Of course those don’t have to be mutually exclusive, but for now I’m enjoying the show.


    • *A more serious way that the 49ers are playing with fire is in the inability cash in trips to the red zone. For the second straight week, they drove the ball well offensively on the game’s first two drives, yet led only 6-0, and ended up trailing 7-6. To be fair, one of the drives on Sunday was a longer field goal that never got to the red zone, but after a game against Green Bay where Frisco should have been up 14-0, the 49ers should have had a 10-0 early lead in Carolina.
    • *Fox game analyst Troy Aikman commented that he was surprised San Francisco doesn’t get more big plays in its passing game, given how well they run the ball. Excuse me, but the 49ers are seventh in the NFL in yards-per-pass attempt. Perhaps Aikman was thinking of something more specific, like number of plays for 20-plus yards (I don’t know where they would rank there). But if not, Aikman might need to lower his expectations. Kaepernick isn’t high-percentage, but does make his completions count.
    • *Just how big of a ringer is Harbaugh. We’ve always known about his temper, but after his outburst on the missed call in the end zone on the Davis catch (prior to the booth review), the head coach came running out onto the field, incurred a 15-yard penalty, and had to be calmed down by wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who’d just been rebuked by Aikman for his non-stop chatter. What does it say when your coach has to be reined in by your leading trash-talker?


  • *Cam Newton was definitely outplayed, but let’s keep this in context. Newton’s success this year came not because he was spectacular, but because his defense always kept him in manageable situations. That didn’t happen on Sunday. I think Newton deserves a lot of credit for showing he could play a safe style. We know he’s got the talent to make big plays, so next year’s challenge will be to get the explosiveness of his 2011 rookie year integrated into the safe, winning style he used this season.
  • *Because of Carolina’s great year, Newton and head coach Ron Rivera won’t catch much heat, but I want to launch a pre-emptive strike on something that may come up if they don’t advance in the playoffs over the next couple years. It’s the notion of “never winning a playoff game”, a tag that hung on Atlanta’s Matt Ryan until last season. When your team earns a first-round bye, isn’t that as good as a win? Instead of quoting playoff W-L records, let’s instead quote the number of times teams/QBs make a given round, a much more accurate measurement in a system where first-round byes are in play.

NFL Playoff Preview: San Francisco-Carolina

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The San Francisco-Carolina game is, at least according to the oddsmakers, the best matchup of the four games going in this second round of the NFL playoffs. The kickoff is Sunday at 1 PM ET, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call for Fox, and here’s the Notebook Nine points to take into the game, drawn from history, Las Vegas and the personnel matchups…

    • *San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh is gunning to be the first coach to reach a conference championship game in each of his first three years as head coach. Dallas’ Barry Switzer also started his NFL career 2-for-2, although unlike Harbaugh, Switzer inherited a Super Bowl team from Jimmy Johnson back in 1994.


    • The 49ers are the only road favorite of the weekend, and the 1-point spread is the only one of this round that’s under seven points. Oddsmakers further see a low-scoring game in the cards, with the Over/Under of 41 projecting out to a 21-20 win for San Francisco. The previous meeting between Carolina and San Francisco ended 10-9 for the Panthers. That explains the low total, if not San Fran now being a road favorite after losing at home.
    • *Carolina’s defense is their calling card, ranking second in the NFL in points allowed, and its sacks that are the engine driving the success. Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are a dominant pass rushing duo coming on both ends of the 4-3 scheme. This strength goes head-on against the supremely mobile San Francisco quarterback, Colin Kaepernick.
    • *The Achilles heel of the Panther defense is that they give up a high percentage of completions, ranking 30th in the league. This again goes head-on against San Francisco. Kaepernick is a low-percentage passer who makes up for it with big plays.
    • *Carolina’s offense is mediocre by any standard, and at 18th in the league in points scored, is easily the worst of the eight teams left on the board. The Panthers are average in most statistical categories, and being 17th in sacks allowed is a big alarm bell when you a quarterback both strong and mobile in Cam Newton. Now they face a defense that ranks in the NFL’s upper third in every key statistical category.
    • *The flip side to the above point is this—you’re not going to take chances offensively when you play defense as well as Carolina does, and that’s going to mean fewer points scored. What matters, of course, is scoring when you need to. Newton has led big-time drives to beat the New England Patriots on a Monday Night, and the New Orleans Saints in a battle for the NFC South title.


  • *Carolina takes good care of the ball, but have they been lucky or good? The Panthers rank much higher in not losing fumbles then they do in avoiding interceptions. This is not to say Newton has been a turnover machine—he clearly has not—but the success in recovering their own fumbles has been a much bigger part of Carolina’s low giveaways. Is this just luck, or is it a sign of their hustle and alertness? If it’s luck, should we assume the magic at least holds through this season?
  • *If this game plays out as a tough, defensive affair and both teams try and establish the run, that’s going to make third downs, especially those with manageable distances from 3-6 yards, even bigger than normal. That in turn points to the tight ends. Carolina TE Greg Olsen is one of their most productive pass catchers. His San Francisco counterpart, Vernon Davis, was held to one catch for two yards when the teams played earlier. Davis dealt with injuries in midseason though, and is healthy now.
  • *The next part of the story is wondering which team’s wideouts can make the one or two big plays that can swing a close, lower-scoring game. Steve Smith is going to play for Carolina, but the health of his knee is questionable, and that’s being kind. On the other side of the ball, it’s San Francisco who has the medical problems, with Carlos Rodgers being questionable at corner. The 49ers do have fellow corner Eric Wright back healthy after a hamstring injury limited his snaps in last week’s win at Green Bay.


I’m picking Carolina to get the win in a game that I expect to otherwise play out as the oddsmakers say out—tight and low-scoring, and if we do get a lot of points, it will be defenses setting them up. The Panthers are my pick to win the Super Bowl, and they’re getting nice 10-1 odds to do it.