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NBA Commentary: The East Heats Up; Spurs Sweep The West

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If we’d been told at the start of the conference finals that one of these series would end up in a sweep, while the other was knotted 2-2, my guess is that most people would have assumed that San Antonio-Memphis were in a dogfight, while Miami showed Indiana who was boss. But it’s been the opposite. With both Game 4s in the books, San Antonio is celebrating its spot in the NBA Finals, while Miami heads home to South Beach hoping that homecourt advantage can help them survive the final leg of the Eastern Conference Finals.

A HEATED HOMESTRETCH IN THE EAST

Indiana continues to show how much they’ve grown as a basketball team since losing to Miami last year—heck, even since letting Atlanta back into their first-round series. The Pacers are making full use of their big interior advantage on the Heat. Indiana won the rebounding battle in Game 4 by a decisive 49-30 count, and Roy Hibbert continues to be right in the discussion with LeBron James for who’s been the best player in this series. Hibbert had 23 points/12 rebounds.

And last night, Hibbert got help in the backcourt. Lance Stephenson, who had done nothing for three games, stepped up with 20 points. Indiana also clamped down defensively, holding Miami to sub-40 percent shooting and it added up to a 99-92 win that squared the series.

Miami was inefficient in its own backcourt. Dwayne Wade and Mario Chalmers combined for 36 points, but it took 11-of-29 shooting to get their numbers. With Udonis Haslem having come back down to earth after a big Game 3, LeBron James simply did not have the help necessary to get his team over the top. The Heat have to dominate the backcourt if they are going to win this series—at least presuming Indiana keeps working its frontcourt advantage. It’s not enough for Miami’s guards to play well, they have to own the night. With Wade and Chalmers inefficient, and Ray Allen and Norris Cole invisible all series long, this has to concern head coach Erik Spoelstra.

One item that might get interesting in the back stretch of this series is free throw attempts. Indiana had enjoyed a substantial edge in foul shot opportunities in the first three games. In Game 4, the gap narrowed to a manageable 33-27. And with Miami shooting 23 three-point shots, it’s not like the Heat were challenging the Pacers down low and getting to the line. Conspiracy theorists will be alert to whether the league office, quivering in fear at the prospect of an Indiana-San Antonio finals, makes sure LeBron spends a lot of time at the free throw line.

I’m not a full-blown conspiracy theorist, but the NBA has earned enough skepticism on this topic over the years, that I’ll at least assume Miami starts breaking even on free throw attempts—and when you’re the perimeter-oriented team in the series, that means it takes a lot of 50/50 calls going your way to make that happen.

SAN ANTONIO SWEEPS IN THE WEST

I had picked the Spurs to win this series, believing their veteran ability to close out tough games would be the difference. But in no way did I think San Antonio would do it every single time. These teams are competitively matched if you cut the game off with five minutes to go, but in those key moments, the Spurs edge is much greater than even a sympathetic observer thought it was.

Game 4 saw San Antonio grab a 10-point lead after a quarter and then basically keep Memphis at arm’s length the rest of the way, en route to the 93-86 win that secured this series. It came on the heels of consecutive overtime wins in Games 2 &3.

Tony Parker was the undisputed lead story, shooting 15-of-21 and scoring 37 points. But the underrated secondary story is that San Antonio, as they have all year, are playing defense at a very high level. They held Memphis to 37% shooting, including forcing Mike Conley and Zach Randolph into rough 4-of-13 shooting nights. Pau Gasol had a pedestrian 14 points, and with the Grizzlies’ big guns silenced, Quincy Pondexter’s 22 off the bench was not going to be enough.

Furthermore, we have to note that San Antonio gets this win in spite of shooting poorly from behind the arc (3-for-13) and being outrebounded, 41-34. It was a so-so game from Tim Duncan, who had 15 points and 8 rebounds. Everything should have been in place for the Spurs to get beat and have to close it out back home. That they still won the game, and kept it in control the entire way speaks to how well this team is both playing defense, and executing its offense inside the arc.

LOOKING AHEAD

We know there’s at least two more games before the Finals begin, and Miami will host Indiana at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The same network will host Game 6 back in Indy on Saturday night, also an 8:30 PM ET tipoff. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return on Sunday morning. We’ll either be celebrating another conference champion, or looking ahead to a Game 7 on Monday.

NBA Commentary: The Battle-Tested Teams Find The Other Gear

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The NBA playoffs are renowned as a time for the veterans and when being battle-tested matters more than anything else. That truism held in Game 3 of both conference finals matchups, as the San Antonio Spurs put an ironclad grip on the West, and the Miami Heat prevented the Indiana Pacers from getting any ideas in the East.

SPURS A GAME AWAY

No one has forgotten how San Antonio won the first two games at home in last year’s Western Conference Finals, only to lose four straight to Oklahoma City. Least of all, the Spurs themselves. They took Memphis’ best punch in the first quarter of Game 3, when the Grizzlies ran out to a 29-13 lead. But San Antonio settled back down, had the lead mostly wiped out by halftime and ended up getting a 104-93 win in overtime.

What stands out the most is the rebounding—the Spurs beat the Grizzlies on the boards, 50-48. It’s a narrow edge to be sure, but this is the area that Memphis was supposed to dominate. Even more interesting is that this didn’t happen through any fault of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The Memphis big men combined 29 rebounds, and 30 points to boot. San Antonio countered some of that with a big night from Tim Duncan, who had 24/10. But it’s the Spurs’ depth that ultimately delivered them. Kawhi Leonard had 11 rebounds. And Manu Ginobli not only scored 19, but he chased down seven rebounds. Add it all up, and San Antonio’s quantity of talent was able to overtake the quality of Randolph, Gasol and Mike Conley.

It’s now just a matter of time for San Antonio to wrap this up, either tonight on the road or on Wednesday back home. Games 2 & 3 were as competitive as I, and most observers, expected out of this series. But we underestimate San Antonio’s ability to consistently close at the end, winning both games in overtime.

HEAT TAKE CHARGE ON THE ROAD

After Indiana stole Game 2 on the road, the pressure had shifted to Miami last night when the series went to the heartland. Miami easily responded, with a 114-96 win where they took command in the second quarter and never looked back.

The key story here was the surprise emergence of Udonis Haslem, who scored 17 points and 7 rebounds, and at least gave the Heat some type of inside presence. Miami is never going to be a post-oriented team, but a game like this from Haslem at least neutralizes some of Indiana’s substantial edge in down low, and makes Miami virtually unbeatable.

Indiana still got a good game from David West (21/10) and a great one from Roy Hibbert (20/17). But Miami clamped down defensively on Paul George, who shot just 3-of-10 from the field. And the Pacers have got to get something from Lance Stephenson, who’s had a miserable series in the backcourt. Indiana also needs to shoot its free throws better. They had a 44-28 edge on Miami in attempts, but only translated that to a 30-24 margin on the scoreboard.

There isn’t any reason for Indiana to panic. They didn’t revert to settling for jumpers, kept going down low and it’s unlikely Haslem is going to keep playing like he did on Sunday night. Furthermore, Indiana seems to have found some way of preventing LeBron James from racking up assists. LeBron had been good for seven or so a game in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but his passing has been quiet in the last two games. I expect Indiana to win Game 4 tomorrow night.

But ultimately, this game showed that the Heat have that “other gear” that veteran, tested teams seem to find in the playoffs. Whether it’s the lockdown defense on George, or the unlikely contribution from Haslem, this is the way veteran teams find a way to win. And it’s why I think Game 4 is the last one Indiana will win.

WHAT’S AHEAD

The Spurs-Grizzlies resume tonight on ESPN with a 9 PM ET tip. Tomorrow night it’s Heat-Pacers with an 8:30 PM ET start time on TNT. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will be back on Wednesday with an overview once both Game 4s are in the books.

NBA Commentary: Indiana Turns Up The Heat On Miami

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The Indiana Pacers have done what they needed to do to raise interest in their Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Miami Heat. After pushing the Heat literally to the last second in a Game 1 overtime loss, Indiana stepped up and won Game 2 last night, evening the series as it heads back to the Midwest. Since this is the more compelling of the two conference finals thus far, an overview of Pacers-Heat will lead up this morning’s NBA commentary.

INDIANA-MIAMI

Each game—Miami’s 103-102 win to start the series, and Indiana’s 97-93 triumph last night to square it is filled with storylines and angles, none of which point in a clear direction. Since the question most people have is “Can Indiana really win this thing?”, we’ll start by summarizing the positive developments the Pacers can point to.

*The frontline is active and involved—unlike last year’s conference semifinal loss to Miami, where Indiana got passive and settled for perimeter jumpers, the Pacers are getting the ball to the paint. Roy Hibbert scored 48 points in the two games at South Beach, David West had a 26-point showing in Game 1 and played well in Game 2. And small forward Paul George has given the team a mix of scoring off the dribble and with the jumper, producing 49 points in the two games combined. George also hit a miracle three-point shot to force overtime in Game 1.

*Indiana is getting to the foul line. They’ve won the free-throw scoring battle both times, 24-16 in the opener and 26-18 in Game 2. Some of this is because Miami is mediocre at the foul line to date, but in either case, the Pacers are getting more attempts. This is a direct byproduct of controlling the interior. It also suggests that, thus far anyway, they’re getting some fair officiating. Although given the NBA’s history in this regard, you’ll have to color me skeptical that such would continue if Indiana really gets in position to knock the Heat out of the Finals. If you don’t believe me, ask the good people of Sacramento about such matters.

*It’s only a failed coaching gambit that’s preventing Indiana from being up 2-0. Leading by a point with a two seconds left in overtime of Game 1, Pacer coach Frank Vogel inexplicably kept Hibbert—only one of the league’s best shotblockers—off the floor when Miami inbounded for the final possession. LeBron James’ eyes lit up and he took it to the hole for an uncontested layup. I suppose Miami might have hit a perimeter jumper to win it had Hibbert been in the lineup, but the odds of pulling that off are less than 50 percent.

But before we get carried away with the underdog, there’s some good things Miami can point to…

*While the Heat have been outrebounded in both games, it’s been by manageable margins. They lost the battle 43-38 in Game 1 and 39-32 in Game 2. Given that Miami is attempting to win this series on the perimeter while Indiana’s trying to dominate down low, that’s good enough on the glass. The bigger problem is that Ray Allen and Shane Battier are just cold from three-point range. But they’re hanging in there with Indiana’s big men.

*The backcourt defense in Game 1 was stifling, as George Hill and Lance Stephenson did nothing. And it was still pretty good in Game 2. Even though Hill had a good game for Indiana, Stephenson was again unproductive. Defensive dominance in the backcourt is a prerequisite for a Miami victory and the early signs here are positive.

*LeBron is still LeBron. He had a couple big turnovers last night that get the media attention, but he dropped a 30/10/10 in Game 1 and scored 36 in Game 2. And this isn’t a Carmelo Anthony kind of 30-point night, where LeBron’s taking 35 shots to do it. He continues to shoot efficiently from the floor and get his teammates involved. Again, the bigger problem is that his three-point shooters—Allen and Battier are not hitting their shots and the result was that LeBron’s assist numbers plummeted in Game 2’s loss.

*The argument I made above—that Indiana could be up 2-0—can be refuted by noting that Miami would have come out extra intense for Game 2 had they lost the opener and that it’s highly unlikely the Pacers shoot 50 percent from the floor against a desperate team.

So where’s it all going from here? At the start of the series I picked Miami in five games, and presumed that Indiana would win one of the middle games at home. But I also said that if Indiana stayed focused and kept going inside that this series was very close to even, and you can even argue the Pacers are better. TNT’s Kenny Smith has accurately noted that it’s tough to win multiple championships when you are not a good rebounding team. Miami is not.

Hence, we can’t assume that the Heat can just flip a switch. In reality, it’s the Pacers switch we have to watch. If they keep going down low and working their game plan they can defend their home floor and put Miami on the brink. If they revert to last year’s form and shoot 25 treys each of the next two games, Miami can go home up 3-1. I’ll split the difference with the safe pick and say Indiana gets one win at home and just adjust my pre-series pick to say Miami in six.

MEMPHIS-SAN ANTONIO

This was the more interesting series when it began, has turned into the less compelling one, but there’s still opportunity for Memphis to turn it around. San Antonio came out blazing in Game 1, built a big early lead and won 105-83. The Spurs continued to be in command for three quarters of Game 2. It was then Memphis made a lineup change, locked down on the defensive end and forced overtime before finally coming up short, 93-89.

I’m inclined to write off Game 1 as an anomaly. The Spurs got a combined 8-of-11 three-point shooting from Kawhi Leonard and Matt Bonner. On the Memphis side, Zach Randolph only scored two points. Give great credit to the Spurs—it speaks well to their preparedness that they had a plan for Randolph, and to the depth. But giving credit is different from saying it’s likely to happen again. None of those developments are.

Memphis got its rebounding mojo back in Game 2, with Randolph and Pau Gasol leading a team-wide 60-46 advantage on the glass. This is the type of advantage the Grizzlies need to sustain—it’s also where the Pacers need to be in their series. Memphis further did a good job on Tony Parker, forcing him into a 6-for-20 shooting night.

But Parker did what veterans do and that’s find a way to contribute when his shot wasn’t falling. He handed out 18 assists and the balanced Spurs lineup was able to prevail. Their underrated defense held Memphis to 34 percent shooting in the process.

I liked the Spurs to win a long series win this started. I’m obviously not changing my mind on San Antonio, but nor am I changing my mind about the long series. Memphis gave guard Jerryd Bayless some extra minutes in Game 2 and got 18 points from him. If he can replace the unproductive Tony Allen in the lineup and join with point guard Mike Conley, then Memphis will have the backcourt support that it’s frontline needs. I expect some good games this weekend, but also feel like the Grizzlies will win both and turn this back into a series again.

WHAT’S AHEAD

San Antonio-Memphis resumes tonight at 9 PM ET on ESPN. Sunday night it’s Miami-Indiana with an 8:30 PM ET tip on TNT. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Monday morning with updated overviews on both series after their Game 3s.