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Road To The Triple Crown

Two Early Derby Favorites Run On Saturday

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It’s the last big round of prep races for the Kentucky Derby and two horses who are big threats to take the checkered flag at Churchill Downs will be in action…wait a minute, that’s a car racing analogy. They’ll be in position to hoist the Cup…no, that’s not it. Okay forget it, but whatever the analogy, just know that Hansen and Secret Circle are two of the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby and both horses will be in separate races  in the Bluegrass Stakes and Arkansas Derby respectively.

Hansen is a heavy 6-5 favorite to win the Bluegrass and the horse trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Ramon Dominguez has lived up to the promise he showed last November in winning a Breeders’ Cup race. Hansen followed that up with a second-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes in January, an early prep race, and finish that was a big disappointment given the expectations. But the horse showed he was legit in winning the Gotham Stakes at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack in March.

No other horse in the Bluegrass is going off at odds better than 6-1. Running at that price are Dullahan and Howe Great. The former won a futurity race for two-year-olds last October and has had near-misses since. Howe Great is steadily improving, with top two finishes in his last four races, three of them coming at the competitive meet at Florida’s Gulfstream Park.  Javier Castellano, a good jockey, is in the saddle and if there’s a breakout race in his horse, Castellano will find it. Optimism aside though, there’s a big gap between Howe Great’s previous record and stepping up to beat perhaps the best three-year-old in the country. Of the 13-horse field the only longshot that really catches the eye is Midnight Crooner at 15-1, but this is strictly because of Eclipse Award-winning jockey Garrett Gomez and top trainer Bob Baffert. Midnight Crooner has not yet done anything to merit confidence, so to me this looks like a favorite’s race.

No one has dominated Arkansas the way Secret Circle has since Bill Clinton was racking up political wins. The Arkansas Derby is the third of three big prep races at Oaklawn, each one escalating in quality. Secret Circle has already won the first two, the Southwest Stakes and The Rebel Stakes. Trained by Baffert and ridden by West Coast maestro Rafael Bejarano, he ’s a 5-2 favorite to complete the sweep.

For reasons I can’t figure out, Secret Circle has a rival, at least based on the odds. Bodemeister is at 9-5, with only a second-place finish at Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes to his credit. He is a Baffert-trained horse, but given that Secret Circle is too, that can’t explain it. The jockey is Mike Smith and while it’s fair to say that Smith has an edge over Bejarano, it’s not so big as to offset this kind of talent disadvantage. Put another way—think of Smith as Nick Saban, but coaching Kentucky against Oklahoma and Bob Stoops. You might think Saban was a better jockey, but you would never bet on him riding this particular horse unless the oddsmaker made it worth your while. And it’s not in this case.

Other possibilities in Arkansas include Isn’t He Clever and Optimizer. The former has run in five straight stakes races and grabbed two firsts and two seconds. The problem? The fourth-place finish at Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes was the highest-caliber racing that Isn’t He Clever has faced, giving rise to the concern he may be out his league on Saturday. Optimizer is more interesting—he finished second at the Rebel, the best showing of his eight-horse career. If you believe that the Derby trail is about the peaking horse maybe Optimizer is that. We’ll find out on Saturday.

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If you want a longshot in the Arkansas Derby—and who doesn’t—let’s look at Stat, Naijaar and Cozzett. I include the latter out of respect for the jockey/trainer team of Jose Lezcano/Dale Romans and at a price of 15-1, that alone can justify a flier. But there’s nothing in previous races that suggest anything special. Naijaar had a disappointing showing here at the Rebel, finishing sixth, but is ridden by Derby legend Calvin Borel, who’s home track is here in Arkansas and is fresh off an upset win in the Florida Derby aboard Take Home Indy. Stat is the best horse of the longshots, having won three of his four races, and while none are majors, regular readers know that the team of John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher has a lot of credibility with TheSportsNotebook.

I don’t see any reason to pick against the favorites in either race and look for Hansen and Secret Circle to get a  lot of hype heading to Churchill Downs. But if I were at the betting window, Stat in the Arkansas Derby would be worth a shot. The Bluegrass goes off about 6:15 PM ET, with the Arkansas a half-hour later.

Road To The Triple Crown: 3 Big Races Coast-To-Coast

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We’ve counting down the Road To The Triple Crown here at TheSportsNotebook since January, with previews of all the biggest Derby Prep races. Now the Kentucky Derby is just a month away and the last really big day of prep race action goes Saturday. And what a day it is, with three big races going across the country, at New York, California and Illinois. TheSportsNotebook previews all three…

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, NY  5:15 PM ET): A million-dollar purse is on the line as part of a big day overall in New York racing. The eight-horse Wood Memorial has three horses that have emerged as betting line favorites and those are Gemologist (8-5), Alpha (5-2) and Street Life (4-1). Gemologist’s resume is thin, but impressive—a win in a Churchill Downs stakes race last November and a tuneup win at Gulfstream Park in Florida a couple weeks ago. The connections are even more impressive, with trainer Todd Pletcher in charge and jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. The minimal action Gemologist has seen—along with the short odds—suggest clearly that Pletcher is pointing the horse to this race and has essentially babied him the way a manager might take a Cy Young-caliber pitcher out after six innings to preserve him for the postseason. Now we find out if Gemologist is up to the task.

Alpha has scores big victories here at Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes, a prep race in its own right, and the Count Fleet Stakes. Furthermore, last fall at Belmont, he came in second in the high-quality Champagne Stakes (Belmont is where New York horses go in the fall, while Aqueduct has spring and winter meets). So this horse is clearly comfortable in New York, but an 11th-place finish at the Breeders Cup last November, while no shame, does suggest a problem in stepping up in class. The Wood Memorial isn’t the Breeders Cup, but it’s a tougher race than anything Alpha has faced thus far. Street Life has won his last two races here at Aqueduct, including a St. Patrick’s Day stakes race.

Both Alpha and Street Life are worthy challengers. If you’re a bettor who wants to go for a longer price, or an interested fan who wants to be alert to a big upset, two horses to watch would be Tiger Watch (15-1) and My Adonis (8-1). Tiger Watch is ridden by John Velazquez, one of the best in New York, and while no stakes races are on his resume, the horse has improved each of his last four starts. My Adonis came close in good stakes races here at Aqueduct and Gulfstream earlier in the year.

If it were up to me—and since I’m writing this column, I guess it is—I’d take a flyer on Tiger Watch to win and maybe hedge the bet by also taking lower odds for him to get in the top two.

Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita, CA, 5:30 PM ET): This race goes ahead of the one in Illinois because the SoCal track has scheduled it in the middle of the card, while the other two races are at the end. At this writing, odds are not yet posted, so I’m going to have to take my best guess at the favorites in the 10-horse field. I don’t think I’m taking any big chances in saying Creative Cause will be a factor, with a long record of success in stakes races here at Santa Anita, Del Mar (late-summer stop in SoCal) and Churchill Downs. Creative Cause has consistently run on the board and grabbed a 1-2-3 spot in the biggest races.   I’ll Have Another won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a Derby prep race at this same locale earlier this year. I have to think these two horses will be the favorites, and if you get anything better than 4-1, they’d be a quality bet.

The intriguing horse in this field is Paynter. There is nothing in the horse’s resume that suggest he’s ready to compete at this level. Yes, he won an off-Broadway race here in February. There’s up to nine races a day four days a week—you do the math and what kind of company that puts him in. But the trainer is Bob Baffert, one of the West’s best. More intriguingly is that jockey Martin Garcia, a former Preakness Stakes winner, chose to ride this horse over others in the field he’s regularly aboard. What do Martin and Baffert know? Another Baffert horse to watch is Liaison, ridden by another high-quality jockey in Rafael Bejarano, with a couple stakes wins at nearby Hollywood Park under his belt. The problem is that Liaison’s been less successful since SoCal moved to the higher-quality racing at Santa Anita. Finally, keep an eye on Midnight Terrace, who finished third and first in stakes races at this track. There’s nothing spectacular there, but if you get odds of 10-1 or higher, he might be worth it.

Illinois Derby (Hawthorne, IL 6:46 PM ET): 17 horses are lined up to go in the Midwest and that makes this the closest approximation we’ll see to the field that the Kentucky Derby trots out (usually about 20). It’s worth noting that Kentucky Derby winners usually come at good odds—it’s tough for anyone to be too big a favorite in a field like this, and more importantly, a big field creates huge uncertainty, with anything from early jostling to greater difficulty in finding a rhythm all being bigger factors than normal. So let’s look at the four favorites, then target three solid longshots who could upset the applecart.

Currency Swap (4-1) is the current favorite and an unimpressive one at that. He got a stakes win at Saratoga and has only run once in 2012, a second-place finish. Saratoga’s a great meet in upstate New York every summer, but one stakes win does not a heavy favorite make. Our Entourage (9-2) is next in line and trained by Pletcher, but there’s nothing stakes-level in his previous record. Pretension (5-1) ran two stakes race in New York, winning neither and finishing in the money only once. Hakama (6-1) had his best showing at a stakes race at a minor track in Laurel, Maryland—where he finished second. Pardon me if I’m not overwhelmed by the caliber of the favorites.

When looking for a longshot I’m not going to pretend I’m some expert in monitoring workout patterns, though you can do that at equibase.com if you’re so inclined. I’m more interested in finding a jockey or trainer with a good record. Similar to looking for an NCAA Tournament darkhorse—you might like Florida at a #7 seed just because of the reputation of Billy Donovan. At Hawthorne Saturday, the equivalents thereof are Morgan’s Guerrilla (10-1), with the jockey/trainer team of Rosie Napravnik and Mike Maker, Saturday Launch (15-1) trained by former Belmont Stakes winner Ken McPeek, and Skyring (20-1) who was the legendary D. Wayne Lukas behind him.

To start with I’m probably giving Napravnik the benefit of the doubt in putting her in this company, but I am fascinated with the whole quest of her being the first woman jockey to win a Triple Crown race. The story’s fun, and her horse has won a couple no-name races. I’d dismiss this if we were talking about a favorite—not so if you can get odds like 10-1. Saturday Launch has been even more consistent, running in the money the last six times out. Again, none in big races. But it’s Skyring I find the most improving. Like the others, this horse hasn’t gone against elite company, but in his last three races he’s gone from fifth to second to first. An improving horse, a legendary trainer and a great price. Why not? If you check my section Bad Betting Advice, where I put all the bets I’d really make if I were in Las Vegas with a grand to   burn, I’m adding $10 to Skyring to finish in the top three.

Rebel Stakes Preview

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If you want to watch some other sporting event besides college basketball without taking the time to watch and NBA or NHL game, then on Saturday night check out horse racing’s Rebel Stakes. The $500,000 race is the biggest prize we’ve seen thus far on The Road To The Triple Crown, and with only one clear favorite in a 12-horse field there’s a chance to look at longshot when the race at Arkansas’ Oaklawn Park goes off at 6:45 PM ET (TVG & HR-TV on your sports channel listing). TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the favorite, the three most likely challengers and a couple of long, longshots.

Secret Circle is priced at 9-5 as of late Friday afternoon and is a top-heavy favorite to win his second big race here in Arkansas. The horse, trained by California mastermind Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, one of the top jockeys in the West, won the Southwest Stakes at this venue back in February. Secret Circle also won a Breeders’ Cup race for juveniles (the term used for two-year old horses a year away from competing for the Triple Crown—kind of like an All-Star game for AAA players in baseball), and in two stakes races at SoCal’s competitive Santa Anita meet took him a first and a second. There’s a good reason everyone is expecting Baffert to be in the winner’s circle.

The top three challengers are currently listed at either 5-1 or 6-1, and they are Sabercat, Adirondack King and Naijaar. We’ll start with Sabercat, who’s won his last three races at New Jersey’s Monmouth Park and Louisiana’s Delta Downs, including two stakes races. However those tracks, especially Delta Downs, don’t have nearly the caliber of horses as will be in the starting gate on Saturday. On the plus side, Sabercat is trained by Steve Asmussen, who’s won national championships for wins several times in his career and trained Rachel Alexandra, who in 2009 became the first filly in 76 years to win the Preakness Stakes.

Adirondack King ran third in the Southwest Stakes here, won a stakes race in Philadelphia—a relatively small track in spite of its big market—and took third in a Tampa Bay stakes race. But surely the most interesting of the challengers is Naijaar, ridden by Calvin Borel. Casual horse racing fans know Borel is the one who won three Kentucky Derbies in four years, including an epic run with 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird in 2009. What’s noteworthy here is that Borel was long familiar to racing fans here at Oaklawn, which is as close to his home track as a jockey can have. It’s at Oaklawn that Borel mastered the lag back, move to the rail and shoot up the inside that electrified national audiences at Churchill Downs. This would be a fun bet at 6-1, but be aware that as money comes in, the odds change. And unlike football or basketball, the bettor does *not* get the line they bet it, but the line that exists when the book closes. It’s a raw deal, and I’m willing to bet that the Oaklawn crowd and those at off-track betting facilities will put enough money on Naijaar and Borel to bet the line down. If it goes at 5-1 or higher, I’d bet it, otherwise I’d leave it alone and not bother to challenge Secret Circle.

The ultra-longshots aren’t real promising here, although with eight other horse in the field there’s at least raw volume. The ones that caught my eye are Optimizer, trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas, and Atigun, trained by Ken McPeek, who’s put together a nice record mostly in New York. They have opposite resumes. Optimizer has run in two stakes races, but fared poorly. Atigun has run in off-Broadway races, and gotten a couple wins, although even more so-so performances make him a question mark. I wouldn’t actually step in on either horse.

But it promises to be an exciting couple minutes to watch and perhaps Secret Circle will work his way onto the list of early Derby favorites.

Road To The Triple Crown: John Battaglia & Gotham Stakes

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The Road To The Triple Crown continues on Saturday with two Kentucky Derby prep races, the John Battagalia Memorial from Turfway Park in Kentucky. And the prestigious Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at both.

If you’re looking for a good race to bet, stay away from the Battaglia. This is only a five-horse field, which I’d have to consider one of the major disappointments of this prep season. Furthermore, the top jockeys would be more inclined to take a mount in the $400,000 Gotham rather than the $75,000 race in Kentucky. Hence, Rajiv Maragh gave up Battaglia favorite Dynamical, who is currently listed at 5-2, but will now be ridden by the lesser-known Luis Martinez. Dynamical has only run two non-stakes races and yet to get a win. I suppose if nothing else this means a non-favorite can get a win here, but that this horse is seen as the top choice underscores the weakness of the field.

Mr. Prankster is next in line at 9-5, with a solid trainer in West Coast man Mike Maker. The horse won a couple stakes races during the Churchill Downs fall season, although he then lost big on a third stakes try over Thanksgiving weekend. Another option is State of Play at 2-1. Last September he won a nice stakes race at Saratoga in upstate New York, but has since come up short in big races at the Breeders Cup and an earlier Derby Prep, the Sam Davis Stakes in Tampa. The door is certainly open for either Ill Conceived at 7-2 and or even 15-1 shot Posey Rose to get a win and pick up a little cash as they try and qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

The Battagalia starts at 5 PM, meaning there’s plenty of cushion for TVG or HR-TV, the two horse-racing channels found among the sports listings in most satellite packages, to switch over the Gotham, which starts at 5:30 PM ET. Two years ago this race was won by I Want Revenge, who parlayed it into an bigger prep win at New York (the Wood Memorial, coming up later this spring) and ultimately into the role of Derby favorite, before a combination of injury and race-day rain forced him to scratch at The Run For The Roses. With a  13-horse field here, there are horses who are capable of emerging as early Derby favorite again this year.

We can start with Hansen, who’s a heavy favorite at 6-5, ridden by Ramon Dominguez and trained by Maker. I’m skeptical though. Hansen was also a heavy favorite at the Holy Bull Stakes in Gulfstream on January 29, and while he ran a good race, he came in second. This field is much stronger than the one he faced at Gulfstream, so while Hansen has a couple previous stakes wins, I don’t see where his resume merits making him such a heavy favorite, with the next horses down being in the 5-1 range.

The two most likely challengers are My Adonis and Dan & Sheila, each of whom have already made prep runs this year. My Adonis finished third at the Holy Bull, and has had some wins at off-Broadway tracks in Delta Downs and Monmouth Park. Dan and Sheila came in fourth in the Lecomte Stakes and has the incomparable jockey/trainer team of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher to make the 8-1 betting odds seem even more attractive. My hangup is that I picked Dan and Sheila to win the Lecomte and they ran off the board, and he only has one other race on the resume, a minor win at Gulfstream. I’m looking to the longshots to step in Aqueduct on Saturday.

Regular readers know that when TheSportsNotebook looks for a longshot, we’re targeting a horse who has a good jockey and/or good trainer. Maragh gave up the favorite at the Battaglia to ride Maan at 15-1. This is a somewhat curious situation as Maan is normally ridden by Julian Leparoux, a fine jockey himself who will be at Gulfstream on Saturday. I’m not sure if there are contractual obligations causing this, but there’s no race at Gulfstream remotely as good as the Gotham. Maan has won a couple minor races and Maragh will give him every chance, but I don’t like that Leparoux either chose not to ride him or Maan’s connections didn’t push the regular jockey to stay with him on Saturday.

Kieran McLaughlin is one of New York’s better trainers and he’s entering Side Road at 12-1. This is an intriguing move here, as the horse has run four races in New York, none of them noteworthy, but improving and getting his first win five weeks ago. If you want to take a chance on an emerging horse, this is a good spot.

If getting a good jockey and good trainer is a part of finding a longshot, how about the ultimate triple crown? A jockey, a trainer and a name you like? I’ve got jockey Kent Desormeaux and trainer Dale Romans to pair up with a horse called Finnegan’s Wake…and I’m getting 20-1. How does the Irish in me even think of passing this one up (and the horse is owned by the Ireland-based Donegal Racing). Finnegan’s Wake doesn’t have a great resume, but if he didn’t you wouldn’t get 20-1. He did win a race in Gulfstream on New Year’s Day, so between that and having the jockey/trainer/name trifecta, I’m going all in on Finnegan’s Wake.

Road To The Triple Crown: Risen Star & Fountain Of Youth Stakes

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The Road To The Triple Crown continues this weekend, with races on Saturday and Sunday. The stakes are quite literally getting higher as he close in on springtime. Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana has a purse of $300,000. And on Sunday a $400,000 jackpot is on the line at Gulfstream Park in Florida with the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. The SportsNotebook takes a look at both…

Risen Star Stakes (Sat, 5:55 PM ET, HRTV, TV-G): It’s an 11-horse field and the favorite is El Padrino, a horse with a good trainer/jockey combo of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher. The horse has the connections, but I’m not sure he has the resume (I’m really trying to avoid the use of the term “track record”, thus requiring the follow-up “no pun intended”) to win a race of this caliber. Padrino finished third at a stakes race in Aqueduct (NY) last November and his wins are in non-descript races. At minimum, this looks like a good spot to go against the favorite.

Fairgrounds hosted another Derby prep back on January 21, the Lecomte Stakes. It was previewed here at TheSportsNotebook and I managed to spill enough ink to get through the entire post and never even mention—forget pick, just mention—the winner. Mr. Bowling won the race and he’s a 4-1 shot in the Risen Star. With a victory in Delaware’s Dover Stakes, he’s good bet here on Saturday. The two other hoses who finished in the money in the Lecomte were Z Dager, who’s available at 5-1 and Shared Property at 6-1. Both horses have a win or two apiece in non-stakes races. Also at 4-1 is Mark Valeski (yes, the horse’s name, not a person), who’s ran three no-name races and won two. At a better price, he’d be worth a shot, but when you get a horse that’s already beaten stakes-caliber competition at this same track at the same 4-1 odds, you have to take him. That’s why I’m picking Mr. Bowling to win this race.

The horses I didn’t mention, but now have to so I avoid utter embarrassment in future posts are Adena’s Chance, Hero of Order, Afford, Ted’s Folly and Tizan’s Expense. You can get odds of anywhere from 8-1 to 30-1 on all of them. But none have a top jockey or trainer in the mix, and that’s what I like to see before taking a flier on a longshot.

Fountain Of Youth (Sat, 5:10 PM ET, HRTV, TV-G): Like Fairgrounds, this is the second of three Derby Preps that Gulfstream will host. The Holy Bull Stakes ran on January 29 and was won by Algorithm. That horse, trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano is a solid favorite in the eight-horse Fountain of Youth, going off at 8-5. Algorithm won two other races prior to the Holy Bull. The Florida circuit is one to watch when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, so another win by Algorithm moves him to the forefront of discussion of early Derby favorites and presumably makes him the odds-on favorite for the Florida Derby here at Gulfstream, the most prestigious of the prep races and considered a bellwether for Churchill Downs.

Castellano had quite the stable to pick from when it came to this race. He’s also the regular jockey for Union Rags (2-1) and Discreet Dancer (3-1) who are the top challengers and would have been the favorites in a lot of the prep races we’ve seen thus far. With Castellano having to give up the mounts to ride Algorithm, Julian Leparoux, with two prep wins under his belt will be on Union Rags. This horse is 3-for-4 in his career. Two of his wins are stakes races and the second-place finish was in the Breeders Cup. Aboard Discreeet Dancer will be John Velazquez, another top rider, who was able to get out of riding the more mediocre Casual Trick when this mount became available. Discreet Dancer has yet to run a stakes, but has won both starts of his career, while Casual Trick is 1-for-4.

The latter did finish second at the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year’s Day, so it’s possible Velazquez may end up regretting his decision to surrender the mount on a horse trained by New York powerhouse Nick Zito. Zito’s most recent triumph came with Drosselmeyer in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, and his horse Ice Box finished second in that year’s Kentucky Derby. Zito has had a great career, and I like him because he’s played a role in pushing for better treatment of the horses, something badly needed in a sport where win-at-all costs is the norm too often. At least athletes who use steroids are only abusing themselves. There’s something even more unseemly about doing it to an innocent and majestic horse.

If you want to try your hand at a longshot, News Pending is ridden by a solid jockey in Kent Desormeaux, as is Fort Loudon, with Rajiv Maragh. There’s a lot of quality in this race, so I can see the case for taking a longshot. But The Road To The Triple Crown needs an early frontrunner, and I think its Algorithm’s time to step up.