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Sizing Up The New York Rangers

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It’s been a big year for hockey in New York, as the Rangers wind down a big regular season and now hope to duplicate the feat of their NFL counterpart*, the Giants, in bringing home a championship. New York has 109 points and has clinched the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the playoffs that start next Wednesday. Furthermore, they did it by winning what’s arguably the toughest division in all of sports (yes, including the AL East and the SEC West). Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are the East’s two other teams with 100+ points, and New Jersey at 98, is tied with Northeast Division-leading Boston for fourth overall. Division champs are slotted in the top three seeding spots, which is appropriate, but that should never obscure just how much good hockey is played in the Atlantic. TheSportsNotebook takes a deeper look at the Rangers—how they got here, who they rely on and if there’s anything we can learn from their recent form…

This is a team that’s built on defense. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is the biggest reason why, with his 93% save rate, and the Rangers are third in the league in goals allowed. This, along with the fact he plays in New York is one reason he’s an MVP candidate. One reason I think that’s overreaching—which we’ll discuss more on tomorrow when TheSportsNotebook evaluates the coming MVP vote—is that the defense is front of Lundqvist is no slouch themselves. Led by Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi, the defenseman don’t put up offensive numbers like their counterparts in Vancouver, but they dig in and do the hard work of preventing shots on goal—only five teams in the league have allowed fewer shorts than Lundqvist. So by all means praise the Ranger goaltender, but while you’re doing that be sure and hoist a glass to the men in front of him.

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Offensively this isn’t a great team, but it’s good enough to win. New York is mediocre when it comes to generating shots on goal, but when you have a scorer like Marian Gaborik, you can often light the lamp at a rate disproportionate to your shots. Similar to Washington, with Alex Ovechkin, and Tampa Bay, with Steven Stamkos, New York ranks higher in goals scored than they do in shots attempted and I believe that can be attributed to the ability of one player’s individual skills. Beyond Gaborik, Brad Richards does a nice job moving the puck at center, as we’ll see in a moment when he run through a sampling of games from the past month. Ryan Callahan is decent at forward, however I think he needs to pick up his game this spring if the Cup is going to come to Madison Square Garden.

New York’s power play is below average, ranking 22nd in the league. The flip side of that is they don’t need a break on penalties to score, so given their own strong performance in the 5-on-5 game as well as the penalty kill where they’re a man short, I don’t think this will hinder them in the playoffs, though it’s certainly aggravating if you’re a fan and you have only minimal reason to get excited when you see an opposing player head to the box.

The Rangers didn’t play their best hockey over the last month, but nor was it a disaster. They faced a stiff challenge from Pittsburgh for the Atlantic title and the accompanying #1 seed, but were able to hold off the charge. I’ve gone back through the last month of games, and picked out seven bellwether matchups—teams that are among the top four in their conference in overall points, if not necessarily seeding. New York won four of those seven games. Here’s how it broke down…

March 4: Boston (4-3): A good back-and-forth game, but the Rangers never actually trailed. Richards handed two assists, and Derek Stepan scored the game-winner with under ten minutes to go in the third.

March 6: at New Jersey (1-4): Stepan scored early, but Lundqvist was beaten decisively in the third period, as the Devils scored three goals to break a 1-1 tie. This loss started a three-game losing streak, with the latter two also on the road.

March 15: Pittsburgh (2-5): Things went further downhill for Sidney Crosby’s celebrated return. Richards played well with two assists and the Rangers came from an early deficit to trail 3-2 after two periods. But again, third period defense was wanting, and the Penguins pulled away.

March 19: New Jersey (4-2): Callahan stepped up with two assists, while Brandon Dubinsky had a goal and an assist. But what I’m finding noteworthy by this point is the name that’s absent. Where’s Marian Gaborik? He hasn’t  registered anything in these bellwether games thus far, and he’s not hurt.

March 21: Detroit (2-1, OT): Both regulation goals came in the first period and for New York the fact it was a power play was maybe a sign it was their night. Callahan scored the game-winner in OT. His strong play these last two games furthers my contention that his impact will be vital to this team’s postseason chances.

April 1: Boston (1-2): There’s a Gaborik sighting! He scores the team’s only goal, but the Bruins cash in a power play in the second period and Tim Thomas outduels Lundqvist in the hockey equivalent of Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia going head-to-head in the Bronx.

April 3: at Philadelphia (5-3): This was domination from the outset, with the Rangers getting four goals in the first. Two came on the power play, Richards had two assists and Gaborik tacked on a power play. Overall, the Rangers discovered the power play, cashing in three of six chances with the man advantage. On the surface, we might be concerned by a 40-24 deficit in shots attempted. However, given that this is the only game in the sequence where shot volume was an issue either way, I’m inclined to think this may have been a case of New York playing it more conservative, while Philadelphia just launched shots more or less at will trying to change the momentum.  Box scores only tell you so much, but this seems like a logical conclusion to draw.

What other conclusions can we draw? First is that Gaborik seems to be getting back on his game just in time. The importance of Callahan is underscored and the steadiness of Richards really comes out when you look at his consistent assist numbers over a volume of games. And ultimately we can say this—while this list didn’t include games with West leaders St. Louis and Vancouver, everyone the Rangers played here can legitimately think of making a big run in the playoffs. New York won four times in seven, which is kinda, sorta a magic number around this time of year. I don’t see them as a dominant team, but they play good overall defense, have a goalie who can dominate, a scorer who can change a game, a center who knows how to run an offense and the possibility of some role players stepping up. Unless you’re Wayne Gretzky’s Edmonton Oilers that’s all you can ask heading into a postseason.

 

*There’s a lot of counterpart possibilities in New York, but I’d consider the Rangers-Giants-Yankees to be a part of the New York Aristocracy, while the Islanders-Jets-Mets trio is the team of the God-fearing salt-of-the-earth New Yorker.  The Knicks of course, are the great unifier, at least when they’re not an utter circus.

Are The Vancouver Canucks Tough Enough To Win It All?

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Twice in their history the Vancouver Canucks have come within one game of winning the franchise’s first Stanley Cup and come up short. The most painful was last season, when they had the best record in hockey, had the Boston Bruins down 2-0 and 3-2 in games in last year’s Finals, before finally being hammered in Games 6 & 7 to end the dream. The Canucks are riding high this year too, leading the Western Conference on the strength of a seven-game win streak and tied with the New York Rangers for the most points overall. Ironically the Rangers are the other team to beat Vancouver in Game 7 of the Finals, that being back in 1994. Can the 2012 Vancouver Canucks get that one additional win? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the team overall and looks specifically at their current seven-game win streak to find some answers…

Vancouver does everything well offensively. Even with Daniel Sedin, one of the game’s top scorers, out with a concussion—his status for the playoffs is unknown—the Canucks still have his twin brother Henrik Sedin, who leads the NHL in assists and has some lamp-lighting ability of his own. Chris Higgins and Alex Burrows are respectable, if unspectacular scorers on the wings. With Daniel Sedin healthy, Higgins and Burrows are potent role players. With Sedin out, Higgins and Burrows are at least good enough to keep the offensive ship afloat. Vancouver also gets help from its defensemen, where Alexander Edler and Kevin Bieksa are effective passers.

Defensively the bottom line numbers are championship-quality—Vancouver is 4th in the NHL in preventing goals. But that’s thanks entirely to the goaltending duo of Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider. Because this team is terrible in the area of preventing shots, where only five teams in the league do a worse job at protecting their goalie. We know a hot goalie forgives more sins than anyone this side of a Catholic priest, but the poor work of the defenseman on that side of the ice gives rise to the concern that this Vancouver team is too soft to go all the way.

Whether it’s the power play or straight 5-on-5 seems to matter not to Vancouver. They cash in their chances with the man advantage as well as anyone and they’re very good at killing penalties, thanks to Schneider and Luongo.

The month of March hadn’t been going well for Vancouver. They were trailing St. Louis in the Western standings and it looked like the Canucks were destined for the #2 seed in the West. When they arrived in Dallas on March 22 they’d lost eight of eleven. The Canucks haven’t lost since. Let’s take a walk through the ensuing seven games…

*A 2-1 win over Dallas was keyed by goals from Bieksa and Mason Raymond, the latter being a player who stepped up throughout this streak, with Schneider delivering a shutdown effort.

*The next two games illustrated what I mentioned further up about the goalie vis-à-vis the defense overall. On March 24 in Colorado, the Canucks were outshot 40-32. Two days later at home against Los Angeles the Kings outshot them 38-25. Vancouver won both games, Luongo the former and Schneider the latter. In the Colorado game the penalty kill had an offnight as the Canucks fell behind 2-0 early on power play goals, but a two-goal night from Higgins, the last one in overtime got the win. The game against Los Angeles ended 1-0.

*Another 1-0 win came against Colorado, as the Avalanche made a return visit to the Pacific Northwest. This time Vancouver dominated the goals, winning shots 43-22 and killing five penalties. Even though a shorthanded goal from Higgins was the only scoring chance, Vancouver played a complete hockey game.

*The month closed with back-to-back home games against Dallas and Calgary. Henrik Sedin’s passing was all over the first one, a 5-2 win. Sedin had two assists in the second period and another in the third as the Canucks gradually pulled away. In a 3-2 win over the Flames, Sedin has the feeder on the first and last goals.

*A sloppy 5-4 win over a lousy Anaheim team kept the streak going last night. The score was 2-2 after the first period and 4-4 after the second period. Sedin’s passing again drove the offense, with both Higgins and Burrow being on the receiving end for goals. The game ended up in a shootout where Vancouver continued to score, nailing all three of their chances.

The positive part of this win streak is that Vancouver has shown how well their offense can function without Daniel Sedin. The twin brother does a superb job creating scoring chances and the players around him can still capitalize. Obviously bringing Sedin back takes it to new levels, but Vancouver isn’t adrift without him. Another positive is that, with the exception of Anaheim, the teams beaten had varying degrees of playoff chances and none were sure things. One hopes, therefore, that Vancouver was beating teams playing at max intensity.

If we look to play naysayer we can point out that six of the seven wins were by just one goal and that while all the teams involved were contenders, none were strong contenders. A reasonable observer can say that all we learned from this win streak is that Vancouver can dominate its first-round opponent, which is not something anyone had in serious doubt to begin with. I think such a judgment might be a little harsh—in professional sports, winning seven in a row takes quality play under any circumstances, but it’s reasonable. The same goes for the close-game theory. If there’s any sport that’s diametrically opposite college football in terms of “style points” its hockey. A team playing well can make a one-goal lead seem impossible to overcome.

Ultimately the question will be one alluded to above—is this team physically tough enough to win championships or are they just an artistically sound team that will fold at the key moment? I’ll give full disclosure here—as a Boston fan I loathe Vancouver, not because we played them in the Finals, but because the Canucks played what I consider to be cheap and dirty hockey. You can note this horrid cheap shot that Aaron Rome inflicted on Boston’s top scorer Nathan Horton. Or the fact that Burrows tried to bite Bruin center Patrice Bergeron. Or the fact the city decided to riot after losing Game 7.

This year’s team would be better off playing genuinely tough—as opposed to dirty—hockey. They have the talent to win, and in spite of my biases, there’s no denying this is a team that knows how to move the puck. I would draw an analogy to where the Los Angeles Lakers of Magic Johnson’s era stood in 1984. There was no doubt the “Showtime” Lakers were fun to watch. But there were questions about whether they were tough enough to win in Boston Garden. This analogy only goes so far, because Magic had a couple rings, but circa 1984-85, the team was under fire for losing the Finals in seven games to a physically inferior Boston team that played tougher. Vancouver’s road to the Cup might not have to go back through Boston the way Magic’s Lakers did, but whether it’s St. Louis or Detroit in the West, or Pittsburgh or the New York Rangers in the East, Vancouver is going to have the answer the question about toughness if they want to leave a championship legacy.