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MLB Coverage: Is It Time For Philadelphia To Throw In The Towel?

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We’re now five weeks from the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and a lot of teams are going to have some decisions to make. None more so than the Philadelphia Phillies, who have what are easily the game’s two best trade chips, in starting pitcher Cliff Lee and closer Jonathan Papelbon. The question is, are the Phils ready to throw in the towel?

To place this decision in context, let’s backtrack to the aftermath of the 2010 season. The Phillies had surprised the baseball world when they won the bidding for Lee, with a five-year $125 million contract. Lee joined with Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay that was major league baseball’s “Big Three”, the Phils’ version of the LeBron James/Chris Bosh/Dwayne Wade trio that would get together in Miami just a few weeks later.

A BIG THREE ERA GONE BAD

But the Phils have been less like the Miami Heat and more like the Boston Celtics, if we want to use NBA equivalencies. Philadelphia has turned into a team that is obviously aging, obviously needing a youth movement, yet has just enough talent and does just enough to tease you into keeping the band together. They won 102 games in 2011, but were upset in the Division Series by the St. Louis Cardinals. Then the Phils endured a lousy four months last season and were at least persuaded to deal off Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. But a September surge put them in the playoff race for a brief while and created the illusion of respectability.


Philadelphia then went out and added Michael Young to play third base. Given that Young was no longer deemed worthy of playing the field when he was in Texas, this was not exactly a decision that involved getting younger. Still, the Phillies had talent and above all they still had the Big Three. I liked them enough in March to pick them to reach the playoffs as a wild-card.

The Phils are instead 36-40, 7 ½ games off the pace in the NL East and 8 ½ back in the wild-card race. Those are not insurmountable deficits if you believe in this team, and believe its worthwhile keeping the veterans on hand to take a shot at it. Are they worthy of this confidence? Let’s take a closer look.

A POPGUN OFFENSE

When this current era of the Phillies began, basically in 2005—they made a strong push for the wild-card that season—this team was built on its offensive firepower. Those days are long gone, replaced by a pitching-first roster, but even a staff with aces can’t compensate for an offense that’s this woeful. Philadelphia is 12th in the National League in runs scored in spite of playing in a hitter-friendly environment at Citizen’s Bank Park. And their ability to generate baserunners consistently is even worse.

If we use .340 as a baseline as a reasonably good on-base percentage—a figure that I consider generous—and you add up the number of Phillie regulars who exceed it, you get exactly one. That would be Young. To be fair, Ryan Howard is close, at .335, but up and down this lineup are players who are awful at the basic task of getting themselves to first base on a consistent basis.

Ben Revere and John Mayberry are each at .310 or lower, Chase Utley muddled along at .326 until he got hurt (the veteran second baseman returned this past Friday), and Jimmy Rollins is also at .326. Even Domonic Brown, whose power has been one of this team’s really good offensive stories, has a lousy .321 on-base percentage. Yesterday on Baseball Tonight’s extended show during the Texas-St. Louis rain delay, analyst and former manager Manny Acta spoke about players who hit home runs but lack the plate discipline necessary to get respectable OBPs. Acta didn’t name names—he was talking in the context of Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, who is the exact opposite—but Acta’s tone made it clear he looked at the high HR/low OBP players the same way TheSportsNotebook does—as sound and fury signifying very little.

To be fair to Brown, the last month has seen him become a genuinely more complete offensive player. His OBP is a spiffy .360 over the past thirty days, and he’s also hit 11 of his 19 home runs in that timeframe. Howard is also hot, with a stat line of .398 OBP and .582 slugging. Rollins’ last-month OBP is .357, although his track record of being a low-efficiency offensive player suggests this is just a mirage.

On balance, the Phils are not going to score runs and they’re going to have find ways to win games by scores like 4-3 and 3-2. They might want to trade notes with the NHL’s Boston Bruins, who have to do the same thing against the Chicago Blackhawks tonight if they want to avoid watching Chicago hoist the Stanley Cup in Boston Garden.

PROBLEMS WITH THE PITCHING

The offensive woes are disappointing, but not surprising. The pitching is different—it’s been terrible, symbolized by Roy Halladay first getting hit hard, then having to go to the disabled list until at least the end of August. Hamels has made 16 starts, has a woeful 2-11 record and with a 4.50 ERA, he can’t even blame the lack of support. Lee is the only one of the original Big Three still pitching well, with a 2.53 ERA in 15 starts, good for a 9-2 record. To continue our cross-sports analogies, Lee is LeBron, Halladay is Wade (the injured star) and Hamels is Bosh (no excuses for incompetence). Unfortunately, baseball doesn’t allow Lee to touch the ball on every possession the way hoops does.

Philadelphia has gotten some good work from Kyle Kendrick, a 3.56 ERA in 16 starts, and young Jonathan Petitbone has been pretty good with his 4.14 ERA in 12 trips to the post. The fact Petitbone is young and developing makes it even more promising. Tyler Cloyd, another young arm, made six starts and posted a 3.41 ERA. For reasons I’m not sure of, the organization sent him back to the minors earlier this month. When your rotation is struggling, and you need youth, why you ship out a young starter who pitches well is a mystery to me.

As troubled as the rotation has been—10th in the National League—the bullpen is even worse, as Phillie relievers have built the worst composite ERA in the NL.  Papelbon has been pretty good—he’s blown three saves, but still has closed 14 and has a 2.20 ERA. Antonio Bastardo also looks good, and Justin De Frautus has obvious promise. But veteran Mike Adams was first so-so, with a 3.96 ERA and has hit the disabled list until early July.

The De Frautus-Bastardo to Papelbon combo might work in a short playoff series, but that’s not nearly enough depth to go for the long haul.  The organization called up young Jake Diekman, who has looked good in his first five appearances, so we’ll see if that provides a jolt to this troubled relief corps.

IS THERE HOPE?

The answer to this question is yes. I still believe Hamels will turn things around, I think #5 starter John Lannan—a lot of DL time and a 5.84 ERA in his five starts—will pitch better now that he’s healthy. I expect manager Charlie Manuel to figure out a way to improve the bullpen, and if you get Adams back and Diekman panning out, this unit could go from being really bad, to looking pretty good. I further like the fact that Brown’s offensive game has been so much more complete, and I think Howard’s recent hot streak is a sign of good things to come. Philadelphia can at least narrow those 7 ½ game and 8 ½ game deficits they face in the NL East and wild-card.

But the bigger question is this—is it worth it? There are just way too many past-prime veterans to assume this team will stay healthy consistently. Even if you can get in the race by the end of August, can Halladay pitch well enough to get you over the top. Furthermore, is there a reason the Phils should sell out the future to win now?

The latter question is the big one. This is a fan base that has enjoyed a World Series title as recently as five years ago and another trip to the Fall Classic the year after that. There have been several playoff appearances. It’s not like they’re Baltimore, an hour down I-95, where fans are starving and the organization might need to take some chances.

My criteria would be this—if Philadelphia perceives a genuine chance to win the NL East, then it’s still worth a shot. But a wild-card, where all you are guaranteed is one game? Then I’d probably throw in the towel, call the era over and deal both Lee and Papelbon for what will be a motherlode of young talent, in addition to clearing significant salary off the books for future investment.

That’s the criteria, so what then is the decision? I’m not optimistic. I think the Phils missed their chance to take advantage of Washington’s early struggles and thinking Philly could both catch the Atlanta and still fight off Washington is a lot to ask. The front office doesn’t have to decide until mid-July at the earliest, and possibly later. But if I’m a Phillie fan, I’m shifting my mindset to rebuild mode.

AROUND THE NL EAST

Atlanta: The Braves’ lead is still six games, but Brandon Beachy had to return to the disabled list as quickly as he went on it. Would the Phils consider dealing Lee within the division? Would the Braves do the same with their prospects? Probably not, but there’s no doubt this two teams match each other as trade partners.

Washington: TheSportsNotebook featured Washington in MLB coverage a couple weeks ago, and at 37-38, the outlook hasn’t changed. This team has to hit better, but Bryce Harper starts his rehab this week and the pitching still suggests a big move is ahead.

NY Mets: At 30-42, this team is quietly one of the senior circuit’s bigger disappointments. The bullpen, closing only 56 percent of its save chances (the league average is two-thirds) is one of several culprits.

Miami: The Marlins are 25-50. Let’s just say the city of Miami is not going to replicate the feat of Los Angeles in 2002, the last city to claim both the NBA title and World Series crown in the same year.

 

MLB Coverage: The Problems In Philadelphia

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The Philadelphia Phillies are digging themselves an early hole. The Phils have lost 14 of their first 24 games coming into Saturday, and this in a division that promises very little margin for error. Philly is six games out, with three teams ahead of them—and Washington hasn’t really started to click yet.

Last year the Phils were one of the game’s big disappointments. Expectations weren’t as high this year, but this was still supposed to be a contender. What the problem is and whether it’s going to turnaround is our topic on in today’s National League MLB coverage.

Philadelphia’s problems are threefold…

  • Star pitchers are not pitching like it
  • Anyone not named Chase Utley is flailing helplessly at the plate
  • Bullpen depth is lacking

I’m going to start with the last problem, simply because it does look to be the most short-term. Jonathan Papelbon has closed all four save chances at a 2.25 ERA and Antonio Bastardo is off to a very good start, with a buck-08 ERA. Philadelphia’s going to need at least two more arms to really become reliable, and I think they can reasonably count on Mike Adams to be one of them. A proven eighth-inning man, Adams hasn’t been terrible—4.00 ERA—and can easily get hot.

Whether this area of the team can be really deep depends on the immediate and drastic improvement from a several other young pitchers, but at the very least they should have a Bastardo-Adams-Papelbon tag team to rely on most nights. If the Phillies fail to turn their season around it’s unlikely to be the bullpen’s fault.

It’s also unlikely to be the fault of the starting pitching, but there’s no getting around the staff of aces deserves a load of the blame for poor April play. Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels each have ERAs a bit over 5 and newly acquired John Lannan was first terrible, then hit the disabled list until June.

Cliff Lee, after a slow start a year ago when he didn’t win a game until June, is pitching well, with a 3.03 ERA and has a couple victories. Kyle Kendrick is also throwing the ball very well. The importance of the latter can’t be underestimated. Halladay and Hamels are going to turn it around—in fact both have already shown signs of life in the latter part of this month, and if Kendrick stays as a solid fourth starter, Philadelphia will be well-poised for some long winning streaks.

But while pitching may be the most important part of the game, it’s not everything and the offense is just not getting the job done. While Utley is having a comeback year (.355 on-base percentage/.529 slugging percentage), the rest of the lineup is having problems. Ryan Howard has hit four home runs, but done little else. Michael Young has a solid .393 on-base percentage, but that can’t make up for the ineptness provided by Jimmy Rollins, Ben Revere and Dominic Brown.

Brown, a young rightfielder who’s had great minor league reviews but little in the way of major league production, is behind the eight-ball in his first shot at regular playing time. Rollins has done next to nothing since his MVP year of 2007—a year he was still overrated—and is one of the most overrated position players in baseball. Revere won deserved praise for his classy “Pray For Boston” inscription inside his glove the night of the Marathon bombing. On the less important—but more pertinent for the sake of this article—topic of his offensive production, it just hasn’t been there.

Philadelphia is tied for 10th in the National League in runs scored and I don’t see any reason to expect significant improvement. The return of Carlos Ruiz from a suspension—expected tomorrow—will help, but it’s not as though Ruiz is going to turn this into an offense that’s even in the top half of the NL. That’s going to take someone like a Revere or a Brown catching fire and really setting the table, and I’m not optimistic that will happen.

Thus, the question becomes whether the Phils will compete with a subpar offense. As long it stays “subpar” and doesn’t descend into “atrocious”, I think the answer is yes. The starting pitching is already getting better and if they can get Lannan healthy that will add to the depth come summertime. What we don’t know is what kind of shape Philadelphia will be in the standings. Last year they caught fire in the final six weeks but had too big a deficit to make up. The hole certainly isn’t that deep yet, but the slow start means Philadelphia does have to play with some urgency.

SEPARATING THEMSELVES FROM THE PACK

Most of the National League is teams packed up against one another, but each division has seen one team separate itself in the wrong direction. I don’t think anyone was expecting Miami, the Chicago Cubs or San Diego to seriously contend, and the first four weeks of the season have confirmed that.

Rather than pile on these teams—their opponents are doing plenty of that already—let’s single out some positives on each cellar-dwellar.

*Miami starting pitcher Kevin Slowey has a 2.43 ERA in five starts and the former Twins hurler could be rejuvenating his career in South Beach.

*Chicago’s actually gotten good starting pitching overall. Their third in the National League in ERA, and the two biggest reasons are Carlos Villanueva and Travis Wood. Each pitcher has made four starts, with ERAs of 1.53 and 2.08 respectively.

*San Diego’s Chris Denorfia is swinging a good bat, with a. 380/.462 stat line in a park where numbers are tough to come by.

NL East Report: The Post-Halladay Phils

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The vultures are circling around the Philadelphia Phillies now that Roy Halladay has gone to the disabled list, not to return until mid-July at the earliest. It’s even being speculated that the Phils need to be sellers at the trade deadline. In a span of two months they’ve gone from a 3-1 favorite to win the World Series to everyone throwing in the towel. But is this really justified?

I write as one who’s never been high on the 2012 Phils, picking them to miss the playoffs with Halladay in the rotation, but even I think that the thought of writing off the season is just crazy. Let’s begin with pointing out that calling the Phils a last-place team sounds good if you want to make the case for the vultures and yes, it is true. They’re also a last-place team whose record is 26-25 and they’re four games out of first place. Using rhetoric designed to make them sound like the Cubs or the Padres isn’t exactly accurate.

Then let’s visit the question I posed about the New York Yankees after Mariano Rivera went out for the year. Who do they have left? It’s an obvious question but the immediate aftermath of a big injury the tendency is to focus on the quality of the player you lost, which in both cases is evident. But if you want to evaluate a team going forward, wouldn’t it make more sense to evaluate the players still on the roster? There might, lo and behold, be a few guys left who can compete at the major league level.

Even the most ardent Philadelphia defender would acknowledge the offense is lousy and the World Series predictions won’t come true unless Chase Utley and Ryan Howard come back. That timetable is currently late June, but it’s in a state of constant flux. Everyone knew coming in that pitching was Philly’s meal ticket, so let’s do a quick rundown of who the Phils still have available…

*Cliff Lee is back from his own stint on the disabled list and has a 2.82 ERA, though unbelievably, he’s still looking for his first win of the year. Cole Hamels is pitching like a man who’s got a free agent payday coming up in the offseason, with an 8-1 record and 2.43 ERA. When you have this 1-2 punch at the top of your rotation, and then go to Jonathan Papelbon as the closer in the ninth—14 saves with a 2.21 ERA, the pitching is still going to be competitive.

*Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick are crucial to the middle of the rotation and this is where concerns are. Blanton’s been hammered in successive starts by the Red Sox, Cards and Mets. Kendrick’s ERA is 4.10, barely tolerable in the National League, if only because Citizen’s Bank in Philly is tough on a pitcher. What will give this part of the staff a big lift is when Vance Worley comes off the disabled list. He’s 3-2 with a 3.07 ERA, had a great year in 2011 and could be back as soon as Monday. With his return, the Phils now have a 1-2-3 combo among starters, and veterans at the back end that there’s reasonable hope can turn it around.

*In front of Papelbon in the bullpen is Antonio Bastardo, who was already a consistent setup man and has a 1.98 ERA this season. So the eighth and ninth inning is in reliable hands. In front of these two are problems, with Chad Qualls, Jose Contreras and Joe Savey all being hit. But here again, there’s help on the way—Michael Stutes and David Herndon, who each pitched well last season, are expected back from their own DL trips in the next week or two.

So let’s fast forward the clock to the middle of June when Worley, Stutes and Herndon come back. Philly’s going to have a two Cy Young-caliber starters, a solid #3, arguably the game’s best closer, an elite setup man, a very deep bullpen and even the weak links at the rotation’s back end have track records that tell you they could turn it around. This doesn’t look like a seller’s situation to me. This looks like a batten down the hatches, keep within five games of first place and get people back healthy and in their roles.

And if the Phils can hang in over the next couple months, let’s add this wrinkle—everyone’s going to maneuver for pitching as we get close to the July 31 trade deadline, but there would be no bigger addition than knowing Roy Halladay is coming back.

A quick look at the rest of the NL East…

Washington (29-20): Let’s give a shout-out to the Nats bullpen, which has survived all year without Drew Storen and Brad Lidge. The relief corps gave Davey Johnson 15 innings of work last week at a 2.40 ERA, helping the team win consecutive road series at Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Nationals have lost the last two nights in Miami, but the road trip ends tonight and this young team survived a difficult schedule stretch and will still be in first when they resume home games on Friday.

NY Mets (28-22): It was unlikely heroes who triggered the Mets’ offense, which upgraded from bad to average as they went 5-2 in games against the Padres and Pirates to shoot up to second place. 32-year-old Scott Hairston batted .417, while another 32-year-old journeyman, Vinny Rottino, hit .300 and the two outfielders combined for five home runs. Then Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee preyed upon the San Diego lineup for strong outings and it was enough to string together some wins.

Miami (28-22): They go for a sweep of Washington tonight, but regardless, Miami will close the month of May without ever having lost a series and seeing what they can be when Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton are all hot at the same time.

Atlanta (27-24): An eight-game losing streak ended last night with a win over St. Louis. The Braves are lucky, that in a stretch where a lot of NL East teams are playing each other, only three of those eight losses came to a division foe (Washington last weekend), so they’re still breathing. We’ll compliment Dan Uggla, Martin Prado and Juan Francisco—the sub for the injured Chipper Jones at third—for great weeks, but everyone else was absolutely terrible.

MLB March Report: Philadelphia Phillies

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The window is closing, as the proverbial cliché goes for the Philadelphia Phillies. The organization has mortgaged itself to the hilt for the present and has reaped a lot of rewards—five straight NL East titles, two National League pennants and a World Series title back in 2008. But the team and the fans want at least one more of the latter and with starters up and down the roster on the wrong side of 30, time is running out. TheSportsNotebook evaluates the 2012 Phils to see if they can again make the playoffs and then come up with the big October run that’s eluded them the last two seasons.  As always, TheSportsNotebook’s measuring sticks are the ability to get on base, power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: Getting the offense rolling falls on the shoulders of Shane Victorino. The centerfielder runs well and can be counted on to get on base to the tune of .350 or so. He showed a little power as well, although his .491 slugging was the best of his career in 2011. With or without that, Victorino’s first responsibility is to set the table. Carlos Ruiz is a reliable OBP man at catcher, although he won’t get more than 400 at-bats, and his backup Brian Schneider is a mediocre hitter at best. Placido Polanco is usually good for a hot month or so, but his seasonal numbers leave much to be desired at third base. Jimmy Rollins hasn’t been a productive offensive player since 2008. There’s just not much depth to the offense, as evidenced by the fact that your catcher who doesn’t play full-time is your second-best table-setter.

POWER:  Ryan Howard will open the season on the disabled list, still recovering from the Achilles tendon he tore on his, and the team’s final at-bat of the season last year in the Division Series against St. Louis. Howard’s full season numbers are usually good for 30 home runs and a slugging percentage of at least .500. But will he be able to drive the ball effectively when he gets back? I have a feeling Howard’s going to take longer to get his power stroke back. Chase Utley’s power—and his on-base percentages—have been in decline for three years due to the knee problems that will have him out at least a month to start the season and I have a hard time even considering Utley an above-average offensive player anymore. The juice in the lineup has to come from Hunter Pence, acquired from Houston at last year’s trade deadline. While Pence’s .370/.502 slugging was the best year of his career, his traditional norms aren’t much lower than that and a reasonable person could also conclude that at age 28 and playing in an intense, exciting atmosphere Pence was simply in the right situation at the right time to fulfill his potential and this kind of production will become his new norm.  That’s the direction I lean. The opposite corner of the outfield is John Mayberry, who has to take up the power outage left by the decline of Utley and the injury to Howard. Mayberry hit 15 home runs in a part-time role last year, and did a respectable job at plate discipline along with it. Philadelphia let Raul Ibanez walk and gave Mayberry his first crack at a full-time gig.

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STARTING PITCHING: Every last bit of championship expectations for the Phillies are traceable to this group right here, and everything falls on the shoulders of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. They’ve all shown themselves to be good for at least 30 starts a year, ERAs no worse than 3, and often—especially in the case of Halladay, the staff ace—much lower. The trio will win anywhere between 15-20 games apiece and singlehandedly make the team a contender, a tough out in any playoff series. Lee is the pitcher who needs redemption—in Game 2 of the ill-fated Division Series he coughed up a 4-0 lead against St. Louis, allowed the Cardinals to win the game and tie the series and left the door open for Chris Carpenter to eventually outduel Halladay 1-0 in a Game 5 that will rank as one of history’s great pitcher’s duels. If Lee wins the game he’s paid to win, Philadelphia sweeps St. Louis home, almost surely beats Milwaukee in the NLCS and would have at least been favored against Texas in the World Series. That’s the difference between a dynasty and a closing championship window. The bottom of the rotation is filled out by 24-year-old Vance Worley, who made 21 starts last year and posted a 3.01 ERA. Ideally Joe Blanton can take on the fifth spot, although he was hurt last season and even when healthy his ERAs are in the mid-4s. Kyle Kendrick is also available, but he’s been more effective as a swingman between the bullpen and the rotation than as a pure starting pitcher.

RELIEF PITCHING:  Philadelphia let closer Ryan Madson walk to Cincinnati, and signed Jonathan Papelbon away from Boston. Madson’s now out for the year. Is that a sign that the Phils are destined this year? Whatever it means this year, the $50 million, four-year deal they handed Papelbon was another example of this team’s win-now, worry about tomorrow later mindset. With so many veterans on the roster I understand where it’s coming from, but as one who likes the Phils (I’m not a hard-core fan, but this is a franchise and fan base I respect) I fear they’re painting themselves into a corner for the future. Anyway, in front of Papelbon, Charlie Manuel will be able to rely on Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo, who really emerged last year when injuries to Brad Lidge and Jose Contreras opened up opportunities on the back end. David Herndon saw his ERA drop more than a run in his second season of regular work. Chad Qualls is a nice veteran presence, meaning that even if the 40-year-old Contreras can’t make it back, there’s plenty of depth.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 92.5—I don’t see it happening for Philadelphia this season and I would not bet on this team to win 90 games. The preponderance of players between 30-35 on the age range, the sharp decline of the offense and the reliance on the Big Three of the pitching staff to be more than just good is a lot to expect. Furthermore, this is a division on the move and Atlanta, Washington and Miami will all be tough teams to beat—and that trio constitutes one-third of the schedule, and that’s before the Phils deal with an interleague schedule that makes certain the always draw the AL East (the Red Sox & Rays are on this year’s slate).