The Philadelphia 76ers were a franchise that was now established as a consistent contender. The Sixers were led by Julius (“Dr. J”) Erving, a spectacular small forward, and they reached the NBA Finals in 1977 and were in the mix each of the next two seasons. But Philadelphia never got over the hump—whether it was Bill Walton and the Portland Trail Blazers or the Washington Bullets, the Sixers didn’t reach the throne room. The 1980 Philadelphia 76ers got themselves close to doing that, but were dispatched with a dose of Magic.
Philly won 59 games and finished second in the Atlantic Division. This was Larry Bird’s rookie year in Boston and fans pointed toward an Eastern Conference Final between the two rivals. With Erving getting help from young point guard Maurice Cheeks, post man Darryl Dawkins, tough defender Bobby Jones and future head coach Doug Collins, the 76ers dispatched Washington in the best 2-of-3 mini-series the NBA used to play to pair the bracket for the conference semi-finals.
Division winners got a first-round bye, but the Sixers beat Atlanta in five games and then surprisingly did the same to the Celtics, winning Games 4 & 5 by double-digits and securing a trip to the Finals. Having put the rookie Bird’s hopes on hold, Philadelphia was now poised to do the same to the Los Angeles Lakers and their own first-year sensation, Magic Johnson.
The 1980 NBA Finals opened in Los Angeles, with CBS cameras on hand and Brent Musberger calling the play-by-play. Los Angeles’ legendary center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had not won a championship since he’d been Milwaukee seven years earlier and went by the name Lew Alcindor. Erving had never won a title since coming over from the ABA. Which star would get the ring first?
Los Angeles took Game 1 behind 33 points and 14 rebounds from Jabbar. While the big fella would be similarly spectacular in Game 2, the Sixers got answers from Dawkins, built up a 20-point lead and ultimately held on for a 107-104 win.
Philadelphia had homecourt advantage now, but couldn’t keep it, as Jabbar delivered his third straight game with 30-plus points and 10-plus rebounds. With their backs to the wall for Game 4, the Sixers again came up clutch. Dawkins scored 26, while Erving, consistently between 20-25 points for each game in the series, was solid and they finally kept Kareem under control.
The series headed back to L.A. tied at two games apiece (It was not until 1985 that the NBA would put the Finals on a 2-3-2 format that would exist through the 2013 Finals). Game 5 of the Sixers-Lakers series was a tight battle throughout and it seemed a turning point had gone in Philadelphia’s favor when Jabbar sprained his ankle and had to briefly leave the game.
In his absence, Magic stepped it up and Kareem would return and gut it up down the stretch to produce a 108-103 Lakers win. This series has its place in NBA lore for the way the Lakers came through in Game 6 without their Captain, but we shouldn’t overlook the missed opportunity Philadelphia had in the fourth quarter of Game 5 when Jabbar was out or hobbling, and the Lakers hadn’t yet had time to develop an alternate game plan.
For Game 6 back in Philadelphia, Jabbar was ruled out and didn’t even make the trip. Head coach Paul Westhead decided to have Magic play center. Another piece of lore makes the Lakers win here seem almost preordained, as Johnson scored 42 points in an epic performance, but the game was tied 60-60 at half. The Sixers lost the Finals immediately out of halftime, as they were blitzed with a 14-0 run and never could come back, even on their home court. The Philadelphia 76ers of Dr. J weren’t done being frustrated—they would come up short in the Finals in 1982, but that would only make the glorious run of 1983 all the sweeter.
The Houston Rockets are the #8 seed in the Western Conference as the NBA heads into the All-Star break this weekend. We don’t know if the Rockets can hold off any of Portland, Dallas or the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff berth. We assume the Rockets can’t beat either San Antonio or Oklahoma City in a first-round playoff series. But we do know this—they’ve buried Las Vegas. With 27 games still to play in the regular season, Houston has already beaten its Over/Under number on the preseason NBA win props.
Las Vegas posted Houston’s number at 28. Now one big caveat comes with this—if you bet on them, this was the number just prior to the acquisition of James Harden on the eve of the regular season. So you had to believe the Rockets were going to beat the expectations of the betting markets with Kevin Martin at the two-guard spot rather than Harden. But was that so unthinkable? Keep in mind, all you would have been doing is wagering that Houston could go 29-53 (a season that probably gets head coach Kevin McHale fired anyway). Harden is an excellent player, certainly an upgrade, but it’s not like Martin is a stiff who can’t play. Houston deserves full kudos for the manner in which they have buried Las Vegas projections and if you bet on them in advance, you can already go cash your ticket.
It’s something to celebrate for Houston, who is already the focal point of the NBA world this weekend, as it hosts the All-Star Game on Sunday night (8 PM ET, TNT) and the other activities of this festive three-day holiday, including the Slam Dunk Contest. Here at TheSportsNotebook, the All-Star break is a good time to check in with the rest of the league and see how they’re faring against their own Over/Under numbers on the NBA win props.
I like the NBA win props because it gives both credit and blame to teams that are off the championship-contender radar. It’s easy to notice a disappointment like the Lakers. But the win props shine a light on teams who maybe had the talent and expectations of a 6-seed and then went completely off the radar. Or on the positive side, made the same journey in reverse. It’s easy for teams like this to get ignored, but if the ultimate goal of sports is playing to the maximum of one’s potential, the win props are the best measuring stick to begin with.
Having said that, I’m not attempting to imply that we can rigidly measure everyone as a success or disappointment based exclusively on their win prop performance. This number doesn’t factor in injuries, and as we’ll see, popular teams have a very difficult time beating their number because their bet up to a substantial degree. And as anyone who has taken a course in Gambling 101 knows, all Las Vegas numbers are ultimately geared to public perception rather than reality.
But while it’s not perfect, it’s a starting point and baseline measurement of who’s doing the most with the least, and who’s doing the least with the most. With that in mind, here’s the rest of the landscape for the preseason NBA win props as we sit here at the All-Star break. The number in parentheses is based on a projected season-ending win total and how it correlates to the preseason number.
THE BIG DISAPPOINTMENTS: LA Lakers (-20) & Philadelphia (-15) Los Angeles is the reverse of Houston. The Lakers were projected at 58-24, and with 29 losses, if you bought an Over ticket, just tear it up. I won’t go into detail, since ESPN’s talk shows have morphed into an all-Laker, all-the-time display. Philadelphia illustrates the weakness of the win prop as an exclusive measuring stick. Their market expectation was to go 47-35, but that was predicated on a healthy Andrew Bynum–admittedly somewhat of a risky assumption, even at the time. The center is supposed to be back after the break, but if he’s going to bail out Over bettors, he needs to carry the Sixers to a 25-6 record down the stretch just to get a push. In reality, the 76ers are joining the Phillies and Eagles as massive disappointments, though at least the NBA team has an excuse.
SOLID WINNERS:Golden State (+10.5), San Antonio (+8.5), LA Clippers (+7.5), New York (+6.5), Portland (+5) Golden State’s status as one of the league’s big surprise teams clearly shines through here. The underrating of San Antonio, a team we looked at more closely yesterday here at TheSportsNotebook really comes out. And the Clippers, even with their recent struggles, are still comfortably on a pace to get the 50-win season it would take to cash an Over. Portland is the team we need to give some credit to—as of today, they would not make the playoffs in the competitive Western Conference, and with some of their defensive issues, I wonder if they can hold on, but the Trail Blazers are playing solidly above market expectations, which said they would go 33-49.
DISCOURAGING LOSERS:Minnesota (-7.5), Phoenix (-7), Boston (-6.5), Cleveland (-6.5), Dallas (-5.5). Dallas is the one team with an excuse since Dirk Nowitzki missed nearly two months. It’s not unthinkable they could have the 19-11 run it would take to push them Over after the All-Star break. You can see how badly Boston underperformed, where even winning eight of the last nine hasn’t been enough to get them in shouting distance. The Celtics need to win 51 games to go Over and at 28-24, if you bought an Over ticket and lost it, I wouldn’t fret too much. The other three tams—the T-Wolves, Suns and Cavs illustrate the reason I like this measuring stick. All three are significant disappointments that would get away with it, if not for some win props reality.
AHEAD OF THE GAME: Milwaukee (+4.5), Atlanta (+4), Memphis (+4), New Orleans (+3), Utah (+2), Brooklyn (+2). There’s still enough time left for any of these teams to realistically go Under, but the team that jumps out at me the most isn’t Milwaukee, though the Bucks have done a nice job exceeding expectations. It’s Brooklyn—the Nets had big expectations, with an improvement to 46-36 being the number to bet on, then had to deal with a coaching change. They’re on pace to go Over and with seemingly the worst behind them, my guess is they beat their number substantially by the end of the year.
BEHIND THE GAME: Washington (-4.5), Miami (-2.5), Sacramento (-2) This is why you don’t take Overs on popular favorites. Miami has won seven in a row, LeBron James is playing out of his mind and the Heat are still off the mark. Why? With a win prop number of 61.5, you need a 62-20 season just to eke out an Over. With a veteran team that has to pace itself for the playoffs, what possible incentive does Miami have to push that hard? Look at it this way—even if you think they can win 62, would you really think it would go much higher? On the flip side, would it shock you if the Heat went, say 56-26? There’s just much more room for error on the Under side of these situations. This is a case where I don’t hold the team accountable as much as the market—sportsbooks know they can raise that Miami win prop number as high as they want, and people will still bet on LeBron.
WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR: In political terms, these are like the races where polls show it within a couple percentage points. In our situation, some of the teams within a half-game can have that explained away by the rounding off I do with their current win pace. Either way, too close to call. Toronto (-1.5), Denver (-1.5), Indiana (-0.5), Oklahoma City (-0.5), Orlando (-0.5), Chicago (Even), Detroit (Even), Charlotte (+0.5). Indiana is the most notable team for whom the win props can’t do justice. They’ve missed Danny Granger for the entire season. Unlike the 76ers, where there was at least a general acknowledgement that Bynum’s health was a factor, the Pacers got hit with the Granger injury out of nowhere. That they’re keeping up with a 50.5 win prop number without their best player speaks huge volumes to the character of this team.
THESPORTSNOTEBOOK’S FULL DISCLOSURE
I made predictions on all these Over/Unders just prior to the regular season, with the exception of the Celtics. They’re my favorite team and I don’t like my rooting interests tainted by handicapping opinions. You can read the preseason comments and picks for both the Eastern & Westernconferences.
So far the numbers are looking good. On teams outside the margin of error I’m 14-6 so far, with correct picks on the most notable teams of Houston, LA Lakers, Philadelphia and Golden State. My big disappointments have going Under with the Spurs and Over with the Suns.
Within the margin of error is a little dicier, where I’m projected to go 1-5-2 if the season ended today, the only winner being the Under on the Thunder (Under on the Thunder has kind of a nice ring, doesn’t it?). So cautious analysts are saying that while I’m having a winning year, not to get too carried away just yet.
I hope your sports week was better than mine (well, unless you’re the fan of a rival team). The Celtics are melting down. The Bruins have the Senators in the rearview mirror. Wisconsin lost to Iowa again last night. If your sports residence is in Boston-Madison Corridor With Redskins Detour, life is rough. With Wisconsin at Ohio State on Sunday I don’t anticpate college hoops getting much better, although if the B’s can beat Ottawa tomorrow night, that’s what I want the most.
Now, to the point of this post, which is to link you to the eight feature articles that ran here at TheSportsNotebook from Monday thru Thursday.
When the Philadelphia 76ers took the court back on February 8 they were sitting on an 18-7 record. The Sixers had a commanding lead in the Atlantic Division, where third in the Eastern Conference overall and there seemed little doubt they would fill one of the conference’s second-round playoff spots opposite Chicago or Miami. It’s been downhill since then, as the record is now 20-13. Thanks to even worse play of late by the Celtics, the lead in the Atlantic Division is still at four games, but New York is coming in the rearview mirror, the Sixers have slipped behind Orlando in the overall Eastern standings and their status as a clear top-four team is in doubt. TheSportsNotebook looks to examine what went wrong.
Let’s start by taking an overall look at Philadelphia as a team and then going into the specifics of the losing streak. The Sixers’ strengths are defense, taking care of the basketball and controlling tempo. They’re the best in the NBA in points allowed, and that number one ranking holds even when you adjust for tempo. On the flip side, even though they are only 17th in raw offensive production, the efficiency rankings shooting them up into the top eight. What this tells us is that while the Philly offense might not pile up big point totals due to a more deliberate tempo, they excel at getting a basket when they need to get it. Doug Collins’ team is also the best in the league in turnover ratio. The only real statistical weakness is rebounding, when they are 22nd.
Personnel-wise, the strength is in the backcourt with Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday and at small forward with Andre Iguodala. Collins can also turn to guard Jodie Meeks off the bench for some three-point shooting. Evan Turner, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft, hasn’t really come into his own. Up front, Iguodala is assisted by Thaddeus Young and a strong post presence in Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand. Right here, we’ll note that Hawes has missed the last few games, which can provide part of the explanation for the struggles, but he didn’t miss the entire bad stretch, nor should he be seen as an indispensable piece, at least if the Sixers are truly a division champ and top four team in the East.
A look at the schedule shows that Philadelphia has drawn some tough teams. They lost home games to San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Dallas, while dumping road dates with Orlando and last night in Memphis. Even a loss in Minnesota on Sunday was hardly a terrible defeat. Taken individually, none of these defeats are all that alarming. Taken collectively, they suggest a team being exposed as a pretender.
Philadelphia lost to San Antonio on February 8 because they couldn’t stop guard Tony Parker, and they were beaten in free-throw scoring 21-7. Two nights later the Clips nipped them by a point, thanks to a little bit of a rebounding edge. Of note in both games is that the Sixers lost the turnover battle. It wasn’t a huge disparity (10-6 & 10-7, respectively). But perhaps it showed how much Collins’ team relies on winning this phase of the game, and the inability to stop an opposing guard is certainly a concern for a defensive-oriented team that relies on its backcourt.
The Sixers played a bad game in Orlando, and the Magic shot the lights out in a 103-87 win. Every team is going to have lousy nights and this is one we’ll just chuck in the trash. Philly came home to host Dallas for an ESPN audience last Friday night and lost 82-75 because they couldn’t hit a three-point shot to save their live, going 1-for-14 from behind the arc. So far we’ve covered four losses and the Sixers have yet to have a player step up and deliver a 20-point game.
Holiday answered the latter problem the next two games, the road trips to Minnesota and Memphis, but the Wolves consistently got to the line, while the Grizzlies hammered the Sixers on the boards.
If there’s something Philadelphia can take out of this as a positive it’s that except for last night in Memphis, teams have generally not exploited their rebounding deficiencies. This at least can reassure Collins that it’s not a case of fundamental flaws coming home to roost. What strikes me is the inability of individual players to really step up and take the reins. These games are there to be won—the losses to the Clippers and Wolves were by one point, and the Maverick game was there to be taken. I look at a lack of production from Iguodala as the most glaring flaw. And beyond that, if you go into the box scores of these games you see at least two, and often three starters, having literally no impact on the game.
The caliber of opponents on the schedule meant that Philadelphia wasn’t going to set the world on fire, but it’s not as though Chicago, Miami or Oklahoma City are anywhere to be found. If the Sixers just went to scrape into the playoffs and make another quick first-round exit, then there’s nothing to fear. But if you think this team is capable of making the next step—to first winning the Atlantic, then winning a first-round playoff series and then at least winning a couple games in a second-round series with Chicago or Miami, then something needs to change. And that something starts with Iguodala picking up his game and playing like a true emerging force.
A tough road game tonight in Houston awaits, so things might get worse before they get better. But the All-Star break means the 76ers have time to regroup mentally before coming back. A stretch of home games coming includes Oklahoma City and Chicago, and Boston is in Wells Fargo Arena on March 7. Time for Philly to start defending their home floor.
