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Pac-12 basketball previews

Pac-12 Basketball: Arizona Leads A Deep Conference

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Pac-12 basketball is home to the top-ranked team in the nation as we head into conference play. Arizona joins the rest of the Pac-12 in opening league play on Thursday, and as good as the Wildcats look, they’re going to be tested. Pac-12 basketball has viable challengers at the top and quality in the middle. Here’s a look at what each team has done in the season’s first two months, and who they’re doing it with…

Arizona (ranked #1): The Wildcats have all the pieces to stay in the national elite all season long. Nick Johnson is the leading scorer in the backcourt at 16 ppg, while Brandon Ashley and Aaron Gordon provide secondary scoring help at the forwards. 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski completes the puzzle with 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in the low post. Then you fill out the lineup with a rebounder in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a good passer in T.J. McDonnell and a three-point specialist in Gabe York. Are we missing anything? Nope.


Oregon (ranked #10): Joseph Young Jr. knocks down 20 ppg and is a laser-sharp 47 percent from three-point range. Mike Moser, the transfer from UNLV, mans the front court, at 14 points/7 rebounds a night, while Jason Calliste and Damyean Dotson are double-digit scorers. The Ducks, like the Wildcats, have quality depth, with good passers in the backcourt and rebounders up front coming off the bench.

Colorado (ranked #20): The Buffs don’t’ have the depth of Oregon and Arizona, but they have the same kind of balance in the starting lineup. Spencer Dinwiddie knocks down points in the backcourt and loosens defenses from behind the arc. Josh Scott is a beast down low, while Askia Booker and Xavier Johnson are steady contributors. What Colorado needs the most is a true three-point shooter to step up.

Last season, five Pac-12 teams made the NCAA Tournament. In addition to the three above, the following two also joined March Madness…

UCLA (11-2): Steve Alford is the new coach in Westwood, and the only losses are to Missouri and Duke. None of the wins are notable, but the talent is there. Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson can both fill it up, and Zach LaVine can shoot it from behind the arc. Alford gets rebounding help from Tony Parker and a series of players off his bench who can go to the glass.


Cal (9-4): This is the program I tend to trust the most in this conference, at least since Mike Montgomery came to Berkeley five years ago. The Golden Bears have started slowly, included losses to Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. They have all the pieces though. Justin Cobbs is a top guard, able to score and distribute. Jabari Bird is a 6’6” freshman with a good perimeter shot, while Richard Solomon and David Kravish make up one of the league’s toughest inside duos.

Four more teams are viable contenders to get to the NCAA Tournament and perhaps climb into the conference’s top three..

Arizona State (11-2): The Sun Devils have wins over UNLV and Marquette, and two explosive scorers in the backcourt in Jahii Carson and Jermaine Marshall, the latter a great three-point shooter. Jordan Bachynski, a 7’2” center from Canada averages 13/10 per game, while Shaquielle McKissic chips away on the glass. This is a well-balanced ASU team.

Stanford (9-3): A win over UConn raises the Cardinal’s profile, and Chasson Randle is their good backcourt scorer whose lights-out from behind the arc. Anthony Brown and Josh Huestis can each score and go hard to the glass, while 6’10” Dwight Powell is a terrific all-around center. Not only is Powell good for a 14/7 per-game average, he also hands out four assists a night, a figure even most point guards don’t’ reach. Stanford is lurking under the radar right now, but don’t be surprised to see a strong conference run.


USC (9-4): It’s been a slow start for new coach Andy Enfield, whose Florida Gulf Coast team electrified the NCAA Tournament last spring. The Trojans have early losses to Utah State and Long Beach State, but a win over Xavier flashes the potential. USC’s potential is led by Byron Wesley, the wingman who averages 17/7. There are some pretty good frontcourt players in Nikola Jovanovic and Omar Oraby, but the lack of three-point shooting will be an albatross.

Utah (11-1): Jordan Loveridge, the 6’6” sophomore wing player leads the scoring and rebounding, at 17/9, but he gets a lot of help from Delon Wright, at 15/7, to go with six assists. The Utes have their own Bachynski brother from Canada, the 7’0” junior Dallin, who gets five rebounds a game despite playing only 14 more minutes. Let’s get him some more playing time and use rebounding dominance to make up for a lack of accuracy behind the arc.
The final three teams appear to have the “also-ran” label written all over them…

Washington (8-5): C.J. Wilcox will be worth the price of admission and at 21 ppg might win the scoring title, but losses to UC-Irvine and ACC cellar-dwellar Boston College don’t leave reason for hope.

Washington State (7-5): Davonte Lacy is the star of the show, and the schedule has been tough, with the five losses coming Gonzaga, Butler, St. Joe’s, TCU and UTEP. But we’re being generous in putting those last two teams on the list and there are no victories to suggest they can compete with the Pac-12 contenders.

Oregon State (8-4): Roberto Nelson and Devon Collier make a fun outside-inside scoring combination, but one reason they score a lot is that there aren’t too many other players who can knock it down. Losses to Coppin State, Hawaii and Akron, to say nothing of DePaul, would make even 2-3 wins in conference play seem optimistic.

THESPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTION

I’ll stay with the chalk in Arizona to win the conference because Sean Miller is too good of a coach. I do think the stiffest challenge will come not from Oregon, but from Arizona State. 

Pac-12 Basketball Overview

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There’s two things you can count on when it comes to Pac-12 basketball. They’ll always get short shrift in the NCAA Tournament selection process, sometimes justified, sometimes not. And they’ll always produce an exciting conference race. This year might not get the exciting championship race, but there’s a lot of fluidity and potential dark horses in the middle. Pac-12 games begin this coming Wednesday, January 2, so let’s get a handle on how the league is shaping up.

I want to devote most of the space here to the huge swath of muddle in the middle, so let’s dispense with the two extremes right away. Arizona is clearly the best team in the Pac-12. We touched on this at TheSportsNotebook in an early season look at the top of the conference and just last week where I said Arizona is one of the few teams I think of as a legitimate national title hopeful. You can read all about Sean Miller’s undefeated Wildcats at either link.

On the other end, USC is the worst them in the league—while most power conference teams, even ones that aren’t very good, strut into league play with nine or ten wins, the Trojans are 4-8. While quite a few of those came to good teams, there’s also a loss to Cal-Irvine mixed in. USC could rally and win the regular season title and still not make the NCAAs unless they won the conference tournament. And they have no noteworthy players. Enough said.

THE MUDDLED MIDDLE OF TEN

Now let’s get on to the middle ten. I won’t go so far as to say you can put these ten teams in any order and have a chance at being right, the differences between them are marginal. Let’s start with the teams with the best chance to challenge Arizona.

UCLA: Since his three straight Final Fours of 2006-08, Ben Howland has had a tougher go of it in Westwood and a November 25 loss to Cal-Poly, following the dismissal of center Joshua Smith, made it look like little would change this year. Then UCLA knocked off Missouri in overtime yesterday and is showing real signs of life.

A pair of freshman, off-guard Justin Adams and small forward Shabazz Muhammad, are leading the way, with a combined 38 ppg. Even without Smith, the Bruins are very physical down low, with Travis & David Wear along with Kyle Anderson all quality rebounders. And Larry Drew has revived his career at the point since flaming out in North Carolina, and is averaging eight assists per game. Howland could use a consistent three-point shooter, but it’s hard not to like this team.

Colorado: The Buffs have beaten ranked Baylor, and one of their two losses is to Kansas. They have the best player in the Pac-12 in Andre Roberson, a forward who averages a double-double each night and did the same last year. Spencer Dinwiddie is 6’6”, scores 15 a night and is spot-on from three-point range. Colorado’s got a good point guard in Askia Booker, who can also keep defenses honest from three. The key is post play and right now the early returns are good, with freshman Josh Scott averaging 13/5 per night. I like UCLA a little bit better because of the depth up front, but this Colorado team is NCAA Tournament-caliber.

While I’d be surprised if anyone but Arizona wins the conference, I’d fall over shocked if the champion comes from outside the Arizona-Colorado-UCLA window. Now let’s move on to quality teams who can at least crack the top three and should have the NCAA Tournament as their expectation.

Cal: They’re only 8-4 right now, but three of the losses were to Wisconsin on the road, UNLV and Creighton. The loss today to Harvard at home was a little less explainable, but on balance there’s no reason to be alarmed at the relatively high loss total. Mike Montgomery has the conference’s best backcourt in Justin Cobbe and Allen Crabbe, a pair of juniors who can each light it up. The keys to success will be the post proficiency of David Kravish and Richard Solomon. Right now, they’re combining for 16 points/13 rebounds a night. Nudge that up just a little bit more and Cal can be dancing in March.

Oregon: A win over UNLV will look good to the Selection Committee in March and a balanced lineup led by inside-out forward E.J. Singler will look good in the floor for the next 2 ½ months. Singler gets help from point guard Dominic Artis and senior center Tony Woods. Oregon needs more physical rebounding from Woods and could use better shooting from downtown, but they have the component parts to slip into the NCAAs around the 11-12 seed area.

For the next level of teams, the NCAA Tournament is a possibility—and should be a goal—although to define it as an expectation would be pushing the boundaries of common sense.

Oregon State: The Beavers would be in the next group up if not for the season-ending injury of center Argus Brandt, a 6’11” senior who rebounded inside and knocked down the trey outside. Oregon State’s still got capable shooters in the backcourt, with Ahmad Starks and Roberto Nelson, and they‘ve got an aggressive-rebounding sophomore in Eric Moreland, but Brandt isn’t someone you can just plug in and replace. Tough break in Corvallis.

Washington State: WSU has one of the league’s top centers in Brock Motum, who scores 20 a night and gets seven rebounds. The challenge for this team is going to be creating edges in a league where a lot of teams have pretty good centers. Davonte Lacy can hit the three, but the Cougars need a lot more Mike Ladd and Royce Woolridge on the perimeter if they’re going to climb a level higher.

Arizona State: With an 11-2 record, one of the losses being to highly regarded Creighton, I should feel good about the Sun Devils. The little guard, 5’10” Jahil Carson is knocking down 18 a night, with senior small forward Carrick Felix getting 15 points and playing bigger than his 6’6” size, with eight rebounds and two blocks per game. The supporting pieces in 7’2” Jordan Bochy, and forward Jonathan Gilling, able to both rebound and hit the three, have been solid. So what’s my problem? My problem is that Arizona State lost by 17 points to DePaul, and have been terrible the last two years. The early returns are good, but let me see them get off to a good start in Pac-12 play.

Washington: This is the most interesting team in the Pac-12, because a poor start, which includes inexcusable losses to Albany and UC-Northridge, has really put them up against it. But the Huskies have a core four that I’d take my chances with. C.J. Wilcox and Scott Suggs are good-sized guards at 6’5 and 6’6”, and they score and hit the three with consistency. Abul Gaddy can knock it down from long range and kick in some scoring on the wing. Aziz N’Diaye is averaging a 12/10 at center and has been one of the league’s hardest-to-figure post man. And if you want support for this group, look at Desmond Simmons, with his eight rebounds a night. At 8-5, with those bad losses on the resume, it’s a long way up for Washington, but as I said—get me to a conference tournament with this group and I’d be happy to take my chances.

THE LONGSHOTS

We wrap it up with Stanford and Utah, the hardest teams to see making a real push for the NCAA Tournament, but they have enough on hand you can’t rule it out.

Stanford: Start with Dwight Powell down low and his 15/7 per night, and add in Josh Huestis on the wing and Chasson Randle at the point, and there’s enough to compete. There’s just no depth and no three-point shooters.

Utah: The losses to Sacramento State and UC-Northridge are reason enough to be concerned. But the Utes can light it up from downtown, with Jared DuBoise and Glen Dean in the backcourt each hitting over 40 percent from trey range. The key will be whether freshman small forward Jordan Loveridge and 7’0” sophomore center Dallin Bachynski can give enough help. That’s a lot to ask. But though the Utes aren’t conference-title worthy, nor NCAA material, the shooting of DuBoise and Dean mean they’ll probably rip out the hearts of someone who is on a few nights in February and early March.

Pac-12 Basketball: An Arizona Runaway?

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The Pac-12 hasn’t been renowned for the quality of its basketball in recent years, but it has been known for its competitive and exciting conference races. Arizona is hoping to change both of those recent trends. At #8 in the country, the Wildcats are hoping to make some national noise, and based on early national rankings, we might conclude the Sean Miller’s Wildcats will run away with the league’s regular season title.

Arizona is very good around the perimeter, and strengthened by senior transfer Mark Lyons. You might remember Lyons as a part of Cincinnati’s teams the past three years, and one who got into a highly publicized brawl against Xavier last year. He’s a good outside shooter, excellent from behind the arc and gives the Wildcats some senior leadership in the backcourt. He’s joined by sophomore Nick Johnson, who runs the offense, distributes the ball and is an above average shooter, both inside and outside the arc.

Johnson and Lyons are both undersized, but Solomon Hill, a 6’7” junior, can match up on the perimeter and mitigate any advantage taller backcourts might have. Hill is averaging 12 ppg and hits 45 percent of his three-point shots. The Johnson-Lyons-Hill trio is, by itself, sufficient to make Arizona the best team in the Pac-12.

How high this team can climb on the national ladder will depend on the development of two freshmen down low. Brandon Ashley goes 6’8” at power forward and seven-footer Kaleb Tarczewski mans the idle. The early returns are positive for both players, as they’ve hit the glass, and Tarczewski is providing a shot-blocking dimension to the defense.

Arizona’s first big national test will next Saturday night in a home game against Florida. However it goes, we’ll be talking about Sean Miller’s team a lot more between now and March.

There’s no one in the Pac-12 I’d consider a realistic challenger to the Wildcats right now and a slew of teams could make a case for themselves as decent runner-ups. Oregon & Colorado are drawing votes in the Top 25, although Colorado’s 90-54 loss to Kansas yesterday might end that. But here’s a brief look at the Ducks and Buffaloes, along with UCLA & Cal, representing the conference’s traditional power and a team that’s contended for the conference title consistently in recent years…

Oregon: E.J. Singler can go both inside and out at 6’6” and with a decent supporting cast around him, this team can make sure the Pac-12 remembers Oregon is more than just football. They’ve blown out Vanderbilt and the only loss is to Cincinnati. The NCAA Tournament is a realistic goal in Eugene.

Colorado: It’s been an up-and-down early season, with a loss to Wyoming joining the smashing they took at Kansas. But the Buffs have also beaten Dayton and Baylor—both of whom have wins over quality SEC contenders. Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 16 ppg in the backcourt and hits more than half his treys, while Andre Roberson at forward is as good a player as there is in the Pac-12. I think the Buffs will round into form.

UCLA: Saturday’s win over Texas might have been an early season-saver. The Bruins have lost key players—notably Joshua Smith, and lost games—notably a two-point defeat to Cal-Poly. But they’ve got a very good freshman in 6’5” guard Jordan Adams and the Wear brothers, Travis and David can both hit the boards—is it a bad pun to say they can “Wear” opponents down? Yeah, it is.

Cal: The Golden Bears faded last season and let the conference title slip in the closing days, then lost a “First Four” game in the NCAA Tournament. This season they’ve lost by 25 at Wisconsin, a team who is not very good right now. There’s a lot of work to be done in Berkeley, but with an explosive backcourt of Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobb, they have the foundation to do some reconstruction.