It looked like the NBA might be headed for a weekend of drama, with six first-round series having potential Game 7s and three of them needing only the home team to hold serve in Game 6. But close-outs were the theme of Thursday and Friday night, and only Brooklyn-Chicago will reach a decisive seventh game. We’ll run through the six games of the last two nights, starting with Nets-Bulls.
BROOKLYN-CHICAGO: It was the third straight nailbiter in Chicago Stadium on Thursday night and Brooklyn finally got the road win they needed to survive. The Nets showed exceptional balance in the 95-92 final. The Big Three of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez all scored 17 points, while Reggie Evans hit the boards for 15 rebounds and they held the Bulls to 40 percent shooting. That’s the formula that can eventually take Brooklyn a long way in the playoffs, and at the very least it’s taking them to a Game 7.
Chicago is wounded badly, and Kirk Hinrich remains a game-time decision for tonight’s finale (8 PM ET, TNT). Hinrich’s backcourt defense was a big part of Chicago winning Games 2 thru 4 and they’ve lost both games he’s been out. Joakim Noah is a warrior and he keeps hitting the boards, but he’s also dragging along hurt. The NBA system already favors stars and homecourt, which Brooklyn has going for it tonight, and to top it off they’re healthier. If the Bulls win this game it’s one of the truly great Game 7 wins in the league’s lore.
The winner tonight goes to Miami for the second round. The other Eastern semi-final will be Indiana and New York, who won on the road Friday night to clinch.
INDIANA-ATLANTA: It took six games, but we finally saw the Pacers team that impressed during the regular season. It was a team built on defense and rebounding, holding Atlanta to 33 percent shooting and winning the boards battle 53-35. It was a team that pounded it down low, with Roy Hibbert scoring 17 points/11 rebounds and David West going for 21/8. Even though Paul George had an awful night, scoring only four points and being ice-cold from the floor, Indiana controlled the game throughout en route to an 81-73 win.
NEW YORK-BOSTON: The Celtics couldn’t get a shot to fall, trailing 75-49 at one point in the third quarter before ripping off a stunning rally to get to within four points before New York finally averted humiliation with an 88-80 win. It was a big moral victory for Boston, who first won two games after being down 3-0 in the series and then was a tough out in Game 6. But the Knicks played some excellent defense and Paul Pierce just couldn’t buy a shot. The team as a whole shot 6-of-22 from three-point range. Pierce himself was 1-for-9, and he wasn’t much better inside the arc.
Like LeBron James last year, Carmelo Anthony came to Boston for a Game 6 with his reputation hanging in the balance. Like LeBron, Melo walked out of the Garden a winner, but unlike LeBron, Melo can’t take a lot of credit. He scored 21 points, but shot poorly for the third consecutive game.
OKLAHOMA CITY-HOUSTON: The Thunder were in more danger than the Knicks of losing their 3-0 series lead, given that OkC was actually down a star player in Russell Westbrook. They got a clutch 103-94 win, pulling it out in the fourth quarter, because their star was more efficient than Houston’s, Kevin Durant had 27 points and James Harden had 26. But Durant did it on 11-of-23 shooting, while Harden was 7-for-22.
MEMPHIS-LA CLIPPERS: It’s going to be a long offseason in Los Angeles after two opening series wins ended with four straight losses, all by double-digit margins. Blake Griffin was only able to play 14 minutes due to his high ankle sprain, but Matt Barnes more than made up for it with a 30-point night. Chris Paul was fantastic with 28. But the rest of the lineup was non-existent for the third straight game.
Meanwhile, Memphis showed a lot of balance. Mike Conley and Zach Randolph created an outside-inside balance with 23 points apiece and seven players scored in double figures. On a Friday night where the games in Atlanta and Boston were marked by horrific offense, this one kept ESPN’s execs happy, with each team shooting 50 percent or better. It’s of little consolation to Los Angeles who loses a series in spite of having the deeper, more star-oriented team and you have to wonder what this means for head coach Vinny Del Negro. As for the Grizzlies, they now get a crack at the wounded Thunder.
DENVER-GOLDEN STATE: The Warriors showed they could defend their home floor, quite literally on Thursday night. Even without a vintage game from Steph Curry (he still had 21, but didn’t light it up like the first four games), Golden State ground out a tough 92-88 win. They hit the boards with a vengeance, winning 55-44 on the glass and had a plus-10 scoring edge on the free throw line. Golden State swept all three games played on their home floor and on Thursday they established they can do it even when the game isn’t a three-point shooting contest.
Golden State moves on to play San Antonio in the second round. The conference semi-finals will get started on Sunday with an ABC doubleheader of Memphis-Oklahoma City & Indiana-New York that starts at 1 PM ET. Tomorrow morning TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will look back on the Chicago-Brooklyn Game 7 and then preview the four second-round series.
The first round of the NBA playoffs has gotten very interesting, with three teams winning do-or-die situations in Game 5—two of them on the road–and six series still in play as they all head to Game 6 battles on Thursday and Friday night. TheSportsNotebook’s will break each series down as follows…
We’ll start with Boston and Houston, who are making unlikely trips home for Game 6 after falling into 3-0 series holes.
Then we’ll move west, where Denver stayed alive at home and Memphis won a pivotal Game 5 in Los Angeles.
Finally we’ll check in on the hideously played Indiana-Atlanta series, along with Brooklyn-Chicago, who have not played since Tuesday’s NBA commentary.
BOSTON & HOUSTON BATTLE BACK
The immaturity of the New York Knicks is coming in for rightful criticism this morning, after Boston went into MSG and got a 92-86 win that extended this series to Game 6. The combination of the New York media and the recent history between these cities regarding series where the team from the Big Apple wins the first three games (2004 American League Championship Series), was already destined to create additional pressure if the Knicks let this series get back to Boston. But the behavior of New York has added fuel to the fire.
Let’s start with J.R. Smith’s cheap shot elbow to Boston’s Jason Terry during the Knicks’ Game 3 win. Smith then had the audacity to talk how New York would have won Game 4 if he had played. It’s not that it wasn’t a true statement—the Knicks likely would have won on Sunday in Boston with Smith in the lineup. It’s that Smith’s words weren’t said in a tone of regret for having let his team down, it was words of arrogance aimed at celebrating himself. Last night, with the chance to back it up, he missed his first fourteen shots from the floor. He hit a trio of late three-pointers after the game was decided that will pad his stats, but did his team no good.
If you look at this game from a strictly basketball perspective and throw out the noise, there’s not a lot of reason for New York to panic. They shot the ball poorly from the three-point stripe all night and that’s something you have to be prepared to live with when you shoot the trey as often as they do.
Furthermore, the Knicks have shown during the season and in Game 3 that they can win in Boston. There’s no reason they can’t win Friday night, and certainly no reason they shouldn’t be favored to win Game 7 on their homecourt.
The question is going to be how much is the noise from outside going to affect this team. The last two games were the opportunities for New York fans to watch the games with a certain degree of comfort with their lead. Now they know their team has to do something difficult—either clinch on the road or win a Game 7 situation where the entire weight of the media universe will be coming down on them. The Knicks have spent two-plus games showing us immaturity and a lack of playoff-readiness. Head coach Mike Woodson has to get his team to see this as a chance to change perception and toughen themselves up.
Now let’s move on to Houston, which into Oklahoma City and won 107-100, As with the Knicks, the Thunder shot terribly from three-point range. They were 8-of-33 from behind the arc. Unlike the Knicks though, I’m not ready to let Oklahoma City off the hook. What were the Thunder doing jacking up all these threes to begin with? Houston is a perimeter-oriented team that loves to shoot the long ball and Oklahoma City just played right into their hands.
James Harden knocked down 31 points, and the Rockets were hot from outside, hitting 14-of-35, while Kevin Durant was cold, hitting 1-of-8. Even though he got 36 points, it wasn’t the usual high-percentage efficient Durant that we’re used to seeing. With OkC neglecting the interior, Houston’s Omer Asik had 21 points/11 rebounds, his second straight big game.
Oklahoma City is in trouble, but for different reasons than New York. With the Knicks, it’s all about mind games. With the Thunder, the reality is that absent Russell Westbrook, Houston matches up with them pretty well. Not well enough to win four games in a row, but had the injury taken place before the series, I would likely have seen this as a seven-game battle. The 8-seed in the West would be one of the top three seeds in the East, and without Westbrook, Oklahoma City is probably a 3-seed caliber team themselves. Whatever the seeds, records and reputations say, the personnel each team is trotting out right now is comparable. I think the Thunder are going to survive, but by no means will it be easy.
DENVER & MEMPHIS WIN IN THE WEST
Denver stayed alive in its bid to get a second-round date with San Antonio, as the Nuggets defended their home floor in a 107-100 win over Golden State. The Nuggets finally stopped trying to out-finesse the Warriors and got physical. Head coach George Karl inserted Javale McGee into the starting lineup, gave more minutes to his inside people in general and lo and behold it produced a victory.
I’ve harped on this point after the Denver losses in Games 3 & 4, so I want to make sure I clarify something. It’s not that I think Javale McGee is some extraordinary player, or that backup center Kosta Koufus is one of the league’s great bench players. What I do think is that their presence on the floor, especially with Golden State’s David Lee out, engenders a style of play that the Nuggets can execute better than the Warriors. If this becomes a battle of the guards and who can hit the three-ball, I’ll bet on Golden State’s Steph Curry against pretty much anyone. If it gets physical, the smallish Curry and the interior-challenged Warriors have issues.
Denver’s Andre Iguodala stepped up with his best game of the playoffs, scoring 25 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing 7 assists. The media storyline afterward was Golden State head coach Mark Jackson griping about alleged dirty play against Curry. In the clips I saw there wasn’t anything alarming and I’m inclined to agree with the media consensus that Jackson is playing for calls in Game 6. Which is all just as fair as the Nuggets getting physical.
Memphis went to Los Angeles on Tuesday night with that series tied 2-2 and I don’t think anyone could have expected the complete meltdown of anyone on the Clipper roster not named Chris Paul. Blake Griffin has an excuse—a high ankle sprain that took him out of the game in the second half and has him questionable for tonight. But what’s with the rest of the team? While Paul had 35 points, no one else got in single digits and Memphis pulled away to win 105-93.
This Paul-only lineup is even worse for Los Angeles than it would be for a lot of teams. Paul’s great strength is his ability to pass, and the Clips’ great strength is their depth. When Paul has to do all the scoring, both strengths suffer and defeat is predictable. Furthermore, the fact Memphis got big games from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol inside—a combined 46 points/19 rebounds, leads to more free throws than a perimeter attack. The Grizzlies shot eight more free throws than their opponent and scored seven more free points, an edge that made up more than half the victory margin.
Now it’s the Clippers who have to go on the road and win a survival game. They did it last year in Memphis in Game 7, after coughing up a 3-1 series edge. If it’s going to happen in Game 6 tonight, the Clippers need a whole a lot of players to stand up and give Paul some help.
INDIANA-ATLANTA STAYS UGLY
The series may be competitive with the Pacers and Hawks, but the individual games are absolutely awful. Apparently neither team can function outside its home environment. Indiana had homecourt for Game 5, so naturally they pulled away after halftime and won 106-83. Every game in this series has seen the home team win by double digits and the margin has been 15-plus on four occasions.
Atlanta’s interior combo of Al Horford and Josh Smith might as well have stayed home. Indiana dominated the glass to the tune of 51-28. Horford and Smith have played like stars on their home floor, and stiffs when back in the Midwest. Indiana’s own star, Paul George has been the same. Since he had the home crowd on his side, he went for 21 points and 10 rebounds, while his team shot 50 percent from the floor.
I’d like to stay with my pick of Indiana to make the conference finals, particularly given the problems New York is having on that same side of the draw. But I have to see something that suggests they can win on the road—something like…oh, I don’t know, how about a win on the road? This series resumes Friday.
Chicago and Brooklyn resume their series in the Windy City tonight. The Bulls can either close it out at home or see it go back East for a decisive game on Saturday. The early injury reports suggest the Bulls’ Kirk Hinrich will not play, but those same reports suggest that all is well with Joakim Noah. I felt from the start that this was perhaps the most compelling of the first-round series, with the star-laden Nets against the team-oriented Bulls and it’s been exactly that.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
Golden State bettors keep collecting, as the Warriors were a 7.5 point underdog in Denver, meaning they snuck out a half-point cover and have beaten the spread all five games of this series. Memphis is also strong against the number, having covered in all three wins, plus a two-point road loss in Game 2. The Celtics-Knicks is dead even against the number thanks to a Game 1 push, and bettors will watch this 2-2-1 series go to a swing game.
WHAT’S AHEAD
Miami and San Antonio are still kicking up their heels and waiting for second-round opponents. They can watch a lot of basketball, with all six Game 6s going Thursday and Friday night. Here’s the TV lineup…
THURSDAY
Brooklyn-Chicago (8 PM ET, TNT)
Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, TNT)
FRIDAY
New York-Boston (7 PM ET, ESPN)
Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN2)
Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)
LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, ESPN2_
Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.
Now on with more detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.
Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.
Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.
Brooklyn is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.
I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.
Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.
Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.
Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.
I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.
But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.
This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.
Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.
Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.
Golden State-Denver: When Iwrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?
It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.
LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.
Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.
Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.
LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3
Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…
Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)
Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).
Saturday:Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)
In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.
Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
*At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
*Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
*Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
*New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
*Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
*Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
*Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
*If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.
Now on with more detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.
Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.
Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.
Brooklyn is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.
I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.
Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.
Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.
Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.
I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.
But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.
This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.
Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.
Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.
Golden State-Denver: When I wrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?
It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.
LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.
Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.
Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.
LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3
Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…
Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)
Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).
Saturday:Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)
In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.
The NBA playoffs start on Saturday, and TheSportsNotebook will preview the four first-round matchups in the Western Conference. We’ll start with three key tidbits of information/analysis, follow it up with more extended commentary, than conclude with some historical context and a prediction. You can click here to read the Eastern Conference previews.
(1)Oklahoma City (60-22) vs (8) Houston (45-37)
TIDBITS
*Houston isn’t shy about gunning from long range, being tied with New York for most three-point shot attempts. Oklahoma City counters with the biggest average margin in free throw scoring of any playoff team.
*Oklahoma City’s Kevin Martin and Thab Sefolosha don’t get the ink, but each shoots over 45 percent from behind the floor and 40 percent behind the arc. They go against a defense that ranks in the NBA’s bottom half.
*OkC simply does everything well—they’re a top five team in offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as rebounding.
ANALYSIS
That last tidbit is really where this all has to start. There’s no weakness in the Thunder’s general statistical profile. If you go deeper into the personnel, you couldconcerned about whether the combination of Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will be consistent, especially in cleaning the glass and on the defensive end. While the Rockets are mostly a perimeter team with Jeremy Lin and James Harden, they can go down low to center Omer Asik.
But if it’s possible for a team to win 60 games and have one of the game’s elite players in Kevin Durant, plus a top-ten player in Russell Westbrook, and be underappreciated, it’s the Thunder. I don’t know that anyone has gotten over the fact they lost both games to Miami, including a thumping on their home floor. We can deal with that at the appropriate time, but for now let’s just state the obvious and note that Miami is not in the Western Conference. Houston is a team worthy of a lot of respect—like all teams in the West, they’d be a threat to reach the conference finals in the East, but Harden alone isn’t going to carry Houston past OkC.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Does it even need to be pointed out? James Harden going up against his old team is a story anytime, especially in the very season in which he was traded.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma City in five.
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(4) Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs (5) Memphis (56-26)
TIDBITS
*A lot of people, myself included, poke fun at the Clippers and their whole “Lob City” routine, but let the record show that this team is 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding. They do their dirty work along with the dunking.
*Memphis is the ultimate grind-it-out team. They play a slow pace, don’t shoot many threes and they’re subpar in their offensive execution. But in both defense and rebounding they’re the best in the West and second-best in the league overall, trailing only Indiana in both categories.
*In spite of being slowed a bit by injuries, Chris Paul remains an elite point guard and the best player in this series, averaging 17 points/10 assists per game.
ANALYSIS
The imagery of both teams would suggest that Memphis wants to walk it up, while Los Angeles wants to run and be flashy. The first part would be true, but be skeptical on the second. The Clippers’ tempo is measured slower than 18 other teams in the league. Frankly that makes sense, when you have Blake Griffin to post up and DeAndre Jordan can chip in down low as well. The Clips shoot a few more threes than they realistically should—keep it restricted to Jamal Crawford and Eric Bledsoe and tell Matt Barnes to direct his efforts elsewhere—but for the most part, this team is well-balanced.
Los Angeles further has veteran experience, in Lamar Odom and Chauncey Billups coming off the bench. Memphis has a solid interior, with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but Gasol’s exceptional passing skill is somewhat wasted on a lineup that doesn’t have enough good perimeter players. Mike Conley is a solid point guard, but has too much of a scoring burden placed on him. That was true last year when they had O.J. Mayo, and it’s even more true now with Mayo in Dallas.
Ultimately, the question is this—these teams faced each other a year ago and the Clippers won in seven games, in spite of Memphis holding homecourt. Now it’s Los Angeles with homecourt, while Memphis has traded Rudy Gay and seen Mayo depart via free agency. What basis is there for confidence in the Grizzlies to win this series?
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: I just made reference to it, and it’s that this very matchup was the 4-5 battle in the West last year. In the 2012 NBA playoffs, we saw the Clippers win Game 1 with an epic rally from 29 down, Memphis rally from a 3-1 series deficit to force a Game 7 and then Los Angeles win that decisive game on the road. This has the makings of a sequel that can’t live up to the original.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles in five.
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(3)Denver (57-25) vs (6) Golden State (47-35)
TIDBITS
*It’s the contrast of Denver’s balanced approach against Golden State’s stars, in Steph Curry and David Lee.
*Both teams push the pace, ranking among the top five in the NBA in tempo.
*Golden State has the best three-point shooting percentage in the league, led by Curry hitting 45 percent while averaging eight attempts per game. Denver ranks a little bit better in efficiency on both the offensive and defensive end. Which prevails?
ANALYSIS
Curry averages 23 ppg, but the Warrior star of note is going to be Lee. He gets 19 points/11 boards per night, and Denver is not a deep team inside. The Nuggets rely on a center combination of Kosta Koufus and Javale McGee, with Kenneth Faried at power forward. It’s certainly not a bad group, but Faried, easily the best inside player Denver has, is nursing an ankle injury. Furthermore, Denver has lost Danilo Gallinari for the year and the small forward was a key scorer and outside shooter, while being able to help out rebounding. Denver’s balance is such that they would likely have still won more games than Golden State without Gallinari for the entire year, but they wouldn’t be ten games ahead of the Warriors.
What the Nuggets do have is an exceptional backcourt combination with Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala. The latter came over from Philadelphia as part of the multi-team package that moved Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum around. It’s fair to say that Denver’s the only team that came out of the deal happy. Head coach George Karl has good depth here as well. Wilson Chandler can shoot the three-ball and even do a little rebounding, Andre Miller is a veteran backup to Lawson at the point and Corey Brewer is a reliable role player.
Curry and Lee are very good, but they won’t win a seven-game series by themselves, at least not against a team of this caliber. The good news for Warriors’ fans is that Klay Thompson and Jarret Jack can ease the pressure on Curry in the backcourt. Whether they can actually win this series will depend on whether Andrew Bogut can do the same for Lee inside, and if rookie Harrison Barnes can grow up quickly at the small forward spot.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: This is only the second time Golden State has been in the playoffs since 1994. It’s fair to say this series is the biggest clash of the San Francisco and Denver sports markets since the 49ers and Broncos met in the 1989 Super Bowl.
PREDICTION: Denver in seven.
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(2) San Antonio (58-24) vs. (7)LA Lakers (45-37)
TIDBITS
*Pretend you’ve never heard of Kobe Bryant. Would you ever look at a lineup that included Steve Nash, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard and act like they had no chance to win a playoff series?
*Tim Duncan is to the West playoffs what Paul Pierce is the East—the veteran who’s still putting up star-caliber numbers and whose intangibles are beyond dispute. Duncan averaged 18 points/10 rebounds per game and still logged as many minutes as anyone on the roster.
*San Antonio is a much better defensive team than they were a year ago, tied for 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers, on the other hand, are tied for 18th.
ANALYSIS
The first tidbit gives away the fact that Los Angeles has been discounted by too many media observers as a threat to win the series, due to the fact that Kobe Bryant is gone for the year. Everyone seems to forget about who’s still there, and it has to begin with Howard. Let’s remember, it’s not like his playoff history is one long vale of tears, to borrow a phrase from the Hail, Holy Queen prayer. Howard led Orlando to the 2009 Finals and to the Eastern Finals in 2010. Now, he’s joined by Gasol and Nash. Furthermore, after you get past Duncan—admittedly no small concession—San Antonio has got some problems underneath. Boris Diaw is out with a back problem, and Tiago Splitter is nothing special. In the backcourt, we don’t know how healthy Tony Parker is going to be on that ankle.
However the third tidbit gives away the reason why I think San Antonio ultimately prevails and as noted in last week’s NBA commentary, it’s the reason I wasn’t enthralled with Los Angeles from the outset of the season. The Lakers have the individual talent that makes them a threat in this—or any series between now and the conference finals—but other than Howard, no one is a good individual defender, and they haven’t been able to make the whole add up to more than the sum of the parts. Which puts it mildly. The Spurs meanwhile, are a true team, and with Parker and Duncan, have the requisite star power to win. In addition to their defensive skill, they get quality three-point shooting from Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, and as of now it looks like Manu Ginobli will be healthy.
This matchup was in doubt last night, until the Lakers beat the Rockets in overtime to settle the 7-8 spots in the draw. It worked out great for the fans. We get to see Harden face his old team, and the Lakers-Spurs battle of veteran stars makes for a more compelling matchup than seeing OkC blow past the defenseless Lakers.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: These teams have had their share of battles, with Duncan coming into the league and Shaq going to the Lakers right at the end of the 1990s. The Spurs won series with the Lakers en route to championships in 1999 and 2003. The Lakers returned the favor en route to titles in 2001-02 and to the Finals in 2004. Post-Shaq, the Lakers have gotten the best of the Spurs in the 2008 conference finals. Duncan and Parker have to see this as time for a little payback before everybody retires.
INDIANA-ATLANTA: It took six games, but we finally saw the Pacers team that impressed during the regular season. It was a team built on defense and rebounding, holding Atlanta to 33 percent shooting and winning the boards battle 53-35. It was a team that pounded it down low, with Roy Hibbert scoring 17 points/11 rebounds and David West going for 21/8. Even though Paul George had an awful night, scoring only four points and being ice-cold from the floor, Indiana controlled the game throughout en route to an 81-73 win.