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BCS National Championship Game Preview: Notre Dame-Alabama

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We’re down to the last game of the season, and as most observers—though admittedly not me—expected in August, Alabama is playing on Monday night in Miami to win its third BCS National Championship Game in four years (8 PM ET, ESPN). As no one expected, Notre Dame is joining them. As we’ve done for all the major bowl games, let’s walk the path each team trod through the season and examine how the Tide and Irish match up.

Alabama’s opening game with Michigan was a hyped battle in Dallas, but the Tide dominated every which way, controlling the line of scrimmage and intercepting Denard Robinson three times, en route to a 41-14 win. From there, Alabama steamrollered bowl teams in Western Kentucky and Ole Miss, along with bad teams in Arkansas and Florida International. The ‘Bama defense completely dominated, and though the offense was kind of up and down, it kicked into gear in consecutive road routs of Missouri and Tennessee.

Through no fault of Alabama’s, the schedule hadn’t been that tough. The Big Ten in general and Michigan in particular weren’t as good as advertised. Arkansas turned into a train wreck and even Florida International, normally a competitive Sun Belt program, fell off the map. November would be challenge month.

The first challenge was then-undefeated Mississippi State at home and Alabama rolled 38-7. Then cracks started to appear in the armor. A road trip to LSU saw the Tigers establish the run and from there beat the Alabama pass defense, even though the Tide rallied late for a 21-17 win. They weren’t as fortunate the following week, as Texas A&M followed the same model and Johnny Manziel all but won the Heisman with a 29-24 upset.

A crazy night of November 17, when Kansas State and Oregon both fell, re-opened the door to Alabama and for the second straight year, Nick Saban was poised to survive a November home loss. They bulldozed overmatched Western Carolina and Auburn, 49-0 each time. Then the SEC Championship Game with Georgia served as a de facto national semifinal. The Bulldogs followed the road map of LSU & Texas A&M, in running the ball with Todd Gurley and throwing it well with Aaron Murray. But Alabama’s own running game, led by two 1,000-yard backs in Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon, was simply unstoppable and the Tide won 32-28.

Notre Dame opened its season in Dublin and played terrific run defense against a good option team in Navy and won 50-10. The defense was similarly stout against Purdue, though it required a big game from freshman quarterback Everett Golson to escape with a 20-17 win. Golson had gotten the opportunity to start the opener after expected starter Tommy Rees was temporarily suspended, and save for a few occasional moments, Golson never gave the job back.

A tough six-game schedule awaited, and Notre Dame started by taking out Big Ten bowl teams in Michigan State and Michigan. The Irish shut down bruising Spartan runner Le’Veon Bell and, like Alabama, they intercepted Denard Robinson. After a week off, the Irish went to Soldier Field and ran all over Miami, a 41-13 rout. They played better, more physical teams back in South Bend and were lucky to survive. A 20-13 overtime win over Stanford was marked by controversy, as there was dispute whether a potential tying touchdown by the Cardinal had broken the plane of the goal line on fourth down. A win over the Cougars was 17-14 and keyed by a strong ground attack. The tough schedule sequence was capped by an eye-opening 30-13 win on the road at Oklahoma. This was on the same night as Game 3 of the World Series and the Notre Dame rush defense was the only unit in bigger lockdown mode than the San Francisco Giants’ pitching staff.

Most of us assumed that Notre Dame would steamroll a trio of Pitt, Boston College and Wake Forest, but the Panthers put the scare of ND’s life into them and should have won the game, if not for a shanked field goal in overtime. Notre Dame survived some shaky rush defense, the gimme field goal and won 29-26 in triple overtime. Then the offense went sleepwalking through a 21-6 win in Boston College, before awakening to pummel Wake.

The season-ending road trip to USC had steam taken out of it by the Trojans’ disappointing season and an injury to Matt Barkley, but it was still Notre Dame’s play-in game. They got back to controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, played error-free and won 22-13.

Thus, we come to Monday night and the last battle for the national championship. For older Tide fans, the chance to win a third crown in four years against Notre Dame has to be seen as fitting justice. Alabama was denied a third straight title in 1966 when a ‘Bama team that went unbeaten and won the Orange Bowl was voted behind the Irish, who played #2 Michigan State to a tie and didn’t go to a bowl. Alabama was robbed in ’66.

Then in 1977, the vote came down to Alabama and Notre Dame after a wild New Year’s Day. Notre Dame, by virtue of pounding the consensus #1 team in Texas 38-10 in Dallas, won the vote. I won’t say Alabama got robbed, but they had a legitimate case of their own—certainly when you come into the bowls #3 in the country, beat Ohio State 35-6 and see the top two teams lose, you have to wonder what more else you could have done. When Alabama won titles in 1978 and 1979, it was the second time a three-peat had been cut off by the Irish.

It’s not three in a row that’s on the line tonight, but its close enough. And while the Las Vegas bookmakers have little doubt about this game, installing Alabama as a 7.5 point favorite, I don’t see it that way. Alabama has not dominated good teams who can establish the run, and Notre Dame fits that category. While Golson is certainly not the quarterback Manziel is, he’s also better than LSU’s Mettenberger, and if he plays as well as the LSU quarterback did against ‘Bama, then Notre Dame is going to win.

The question I have is how Notre Dame’s defensive success is going to translate against SEC competition. The nation’s power conference is 5-3 in bowls so far, so they haven’t been unstoppable. But while Notre Dame’s schedule has been very good, it’s still been a heavy diet of the Big Ten and ACC. Outside that grouping, USC was a disappointment, Stanford hadn’t yet made the quarterback change that would change its season when they were in South Bend, and Oklahoma looked absolutely horrific in Friday night’s Cotton Bowl thrashing by Texas A&M.

I still have no doubt regarding a pick against the spread. I’ll take Notre Dame and the points. I think this one is coming down to the wire and I’m giving the Irish defense the benefit of the doubt. I’d like to pull the trigger and pick an outright upset, but the contrast between A.J. McCarron and Everett Golson is just too stark. McCarron’s shown an ability to throw the ball down the field, especially to Amari Cooper and to do without making mistakes. The ‘Bama sophomore has only thrown three interceptions all year. That’s the difference in a 20-17 win that sends Nick Saban into the NFL with another national title (that’s a little bonus prediction on there at the end).

Outright Winner: Alabama
Pointspread Winner: Notre Dame
Totals Line: Under 40.5

BOWL HANDICAPPING RECORD (THROUGH JANUARY 5)
Outright Winners: 17-15
Pointspread Winners: 13-18-1
Totals Line: 17-15
*Did not pick Rose Bowl, due to fan bias towards Wisconsin

The Major Bowl Chances For Notre Dame Football

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If there’s been a knock on Notre Dame football over the last several years—and let’s face there have been quite a few—perhaps the foremost is that the Irish have been a little soft. The defense in general was not very good and in particular, the team’s ability to match up in a physical battle was decidedly in doubt. On Saturday night in East Lansing, Notre Dame sent a clear message that this year’s team is different. Michigan State brought a good offensive line and big punishing back in Le’Veon Bell into the game. They scored only three points as a veteran front seven on the Irish defense turned in a shutdown effort. With Notre Dame now 3-0, is this team capable of making a major bowl game for the first time since 2006 and winning one for the first time since 1993?

The short answer to the question is yes, they are at least good enough to make a BCS game. Keep in mind there are four at-large bids given beyond the six automatic spots that go to conference champs. No league can have more than one extra bid, so you have room to concede one to the SEC and Pac-12 and still have room to spare. But Notre Dame is going to need at least nine wins, and possibly ten, to be in position to grab one of those spots. Against a normal schedule, they would likely get there, but an NBC-friendly slate is not necessarily conducive to piling up wins.

And while Notre Dame has made admirable improvement in defending the run and taking care of the ball on offense, a young secondary has not been seriously tested. Michigan State has question marks at quarterback. Looking at the other teams ND has beaten, Navy is a triple-option team and no one knows what to make of Purdue.  The fact the Irish needed a late field goal to beat a historically mediocre program at home could be seen as a big red flag. Or we could note that Purdue has played very well in its tune-ups against bad MAC teams and that Notre Dame was in a jet lag spot after coming home from Dublin, and conclude that it was pretty good. We won’t really know until we have a better handle on how good Purdue is.

So let’s take a mindset that this an improved team running the ball and defending the run, while acknowledging they haven’t been challenged by a good passing offense, nor has their own freshman quarterback Everett Golson been forced to play at the rapid pace that resulted in a lot of Notre Dame turnovers a year ago. And with that backdrop, let’s take a look at what Notre Dame has ahead…

It’s a home date with Michigan coming up. We’re going to preview this Saturday night game in more detail when TheSportsNotebook does its customary Friday prep for the marquee matchups. But Denard Robinson has scorched Notre Dame in his career in Ann Arbor and we’ll find out quickly just how different this Notre Dame defense really is.

Then after a bye week its home games with Miami, Stanford and BYU. In spite of the sex appeal of an ND-Miami matchup for those who remember the 1987-1990 epics, the Hurricanes aren’t very good and the bye week should prevent any letdown from the Irish. Stanford’s win over USC has ratcheted up the impact of their game in South Bend, but the Cardinal is a similar team to Michigan State—question marks at quarterback and a tough running game. Notre Dame now knows they can match up. The visit by BYU declined in importance when the Cougars lost at Utah—I thought it had the potential to be a winner-take-all battle for a BCS bid among the two independents. But unless Riley Nelson gets a lot more consistent, BYU won’t have the passing game to challenge ND in the secondary.

Oklahoma awaits at the end of October and there’s no question how much the pass defense will be challenged by Landry Jones and a Sooner aerial game playing on its home turf. If Notre Dame has only one loss, or is undefeated at this point, OU-ND will have national championship implications and we should probably prepare ourselves for some “Game Of The Century” rhetoric from the media. The jury is still out on Oklahoma right now, mainly because they haven’t been tested. Sitting here in mid-September, I’d be very surprised if Notre Dame came out of Norman with a win.

A home game with Pitt to start the November stretch drive looks less easy after the Panthers dismantled Virginia Tech, and Pitt should get better as the year progresses under new coach Paul Chryst. An ensuing road date with Boston College looks manageable, as the Eagle program appears in decline. Then it’s back home to play Wake Forest. It’s possible the Demon Deacons could get Tanner Price and the passing game going enough to present a challenge. It’s also possible the 52-zip beatdown they took at Florida State, with Price throwing for 82 yards is a sign of things to come. Either way, if we can’t count on a Notre Dame home win over Wake, there’s zero point in having any discussion about major bowl chances in South Bend.

Finally it’s the season-ender at USC. The Trojan loss at Stanford has made this game look more winnable than it was, but until we see tangible evidence that the ND secondary can come through, there is no reason to pick them to win  on the road against Matt Barkley. A more optimistic outlook might say that the Trojans will be coming off a game against UCLA that looks very tough and possibly looking ahead to the Pac-12 Championship Game the following week. As hard it is to think Notre Dame could ever be overlooked, I’m sure that’s the one game of such a sequence that Lane Kiffin could live with losing.

Notre Dame can absorb losses at Oklahoma and USC, the two teams that are not only the best, but ideally suited to exploit any pass defense deficiency in South Bend. Conversely, Notre Dame matches up well in the key home games with Stanford and BYU. It would seem then, that the major bowl push is more about keeping focus week-to-week and doing something like drop a game in Boston College or to improving Pitt, which would not happen if the Irish are prepared to play those games. Even if ND lost to Michigan and ended up 9-3, they would still look attractive to a major bowl considering what’s likely to be poor alternatives among runner-ups in the Big Ten, Big East & ACC. And if ND wins Saturday night and takes care of its business the rest of the way? Then we’re talking 10-2, a lock for a major bowl and the USC game would be about national title implications.

So to bring us full circle, what are Notre Dame’s BCS chances? As tough as the schedule is, as much as I do see the weaknesses, as much as I didn’t really believe in this team at the start of the year, we’d have to say they’re looking pretty good.