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BCS Bowl Projections: Boise Plays Itself Out

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Notre Dame & Alabama narrowly escaped with their unbeaten seasons intact. Nebraska narrowly escaped with its path to the Big Ten title still intact. Florida narrowly escaped with its path a BCS at-large spot still intact. But Boise State wasn’t so lucky. The Broncos lost late Saturday night at home to San Diego State, 21-19, and with the defeat saw their hopes of an Orange Bowl bid go up in smoke.

San Diego State has been a team that’s quietly gaining steam in the Mountain West race, but this was really about the inherent shortcomings that this year’s Boise team has. In the end, they just didn’t have the kind of explosive passing attack that could put a team away. Joe Southwick was reasonably efficient at quarterback, completing 20-of-31 passes, but the Aztecs kept everything underneath, holding the Broncos to 164 yards in the air. Then San Diego State won the battle on the ground, getting 127 yards from Adam Muema.

Those of us that follow the mid-major conference races can see an exciting Mountain West race now in play for November. Boise, San Diego State, Fresno & Air Force all have just one conference loss and Nevada is right behind with two losses. For those that only care about the mid-majors to the extent they can impact the BCS bowl projections, the message from Saturday night is simple—Boise is dead, and so is the rest of the Mountain West.

The cause of the mid-majors in general is not gone yet though, as Louisiana Tech keeps sneaking up. The Bulldogs beat UT-San Antonio 51-27 and pushed their record to 8-1. The Bullodgs, led by prolific quarterback Colby Cameron, who tossed three touchdowns in another 300-plus yard performance, are up to #20 in the BCS rankings.

Their situation is the same as Boise’s was last week—they need to gain a few spots in the rankings, and get up to #16. Then they need some help. BCS rules require a team to make the top 12 for automatic qualification—and that’s almost impossible for Tech—but if they are in the top 16 and rank ahead of the champion of a major conference, then automatic qualification kicks in.

Nebraska is currently #16 and has a game with Penn State still ahead. Louisiana Tech could also hope for Wisconsin/Indiana to pull an upset in the Big Ten championship game or for something crazy to happen in the ACC. Bottom line—Louisiana Tech has a shot, although a showdown game in the WAC against Utah State on November 17 is no gimme.

Speaking of the Cornhuskers, they pulled a great escape in East Lansing. Trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, then trailing 24-21 and on defense with two minutes to go, Nebraska got the ball back, and scored the winning touchdown with six seconds left. Taylor Martinez rushed for over 200 yards and kept his team tied atop the Big Ten Legends Division with Michigan, a situation where the Huskers hold the tiebreaker.

Georgia continues to lurk under the radar as a possible national title team if we get November chaos and the one-loss teams can get back into the picture. The Bulldogs all but ensured they’ll have a chance to create some of that chaos when they all but clinched the SEC East with a 37-10 win over Ole Miss. After a slow start, Aaron Murray had a big day through the air, 21/28 for 384 yards and four touchdowns. All that stands between the Dawgs and a championship-game date with Alabama is taking care of lowly Auburn.

That brings us to ‘Bama, and with it we’ll also deal with their fellow unbeaten teams at the top of the polls. By all rights the Crimson Tide were finished on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. They trailed 17-14, their pass coverage had been atrocious all night—the previously mediocre Zach Mettenberg lit them up for 296 yards in the air and the Tigers were set to try a field goal with less than two minutes to play. They missed.

It still shouldn’t have mattered the way the Tiger defense was playing, but Les Miles inexplicably went into a soft coverage even though Alabama needed only a field goal to tie. The Mad Hatter, who’d gambled wildly all game along, got ultra-conservative in the worst possible situation. A.J. McCarron marched the Tide down the field with rapid ease and ‘Bama escaped.

Does the narrow escape mean Alabama is overrated? I’ve felt from the start that the Tide are simply one of the group of teams with a chance at being the best, and not indisputably the best, so this doesn’t surprise me. I’m also inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt for this game—in spite of the fact Alabama is clearly a better team than LSU, everything pointed to the Tigers bringing a max effort here—from the revenge factor to prime time. That the game ended up a nail-biter isn’t surprising, but how bad the Alabama pass coverage is did surprise me. Let’s just say Oregon and Kansas State must be salivating.

Kansas State is now #2 in the BCS rankings thanks to its 44-30 win over Oklahoma State, but Oregon moved up to #3 and with three big games ahead of them (Stanford, Oregon State, Pac-12 championship), it’s the Ducks who are presumed to have control of their destiny. I didn’t think they would win at USC, but then again I also thought the Trojans might be able to make an occasional tackle. Oregon running back Kenjon Barner rushed for 321 yards. How does a nationally reputable program ever allow that to happen?

If you’d told me on Saturday morning that the Trojans would get 92 yards rushing from Silas Redd, I’d have liked my upset pick. Throw in 484 yards in the air from Matt Barkley and I’d have liked it even more. But when Oregon got the ball it wasn’t if they would score, or even if it would be a touchdown—it was just how fast. They produced 730 yards of total offense, won the game 62-51 and left the defense-minded Pete Carroll who built this program’s modern legacy turning over in his grave (at least it would have if Carroll were dead).

Saturday’s results have led me to take Notre Dame out of a projected national title game and move Oregon in. After watching the Ducks on Saturday night, I don’t believe they’ll lose the rest of the way and the experts of the BCS system tell me that will get them to Miami on January 7. And Notre Dame needing a late comeback, a missed field goal and three overtimes to beat Pitt at home doesn’t exactly do a lot in the style points category.

I do have Notre Dame projected to make the Rose Bowl. If you presume an Alabama-Oregon matchup for the title, that gives the Sugar and Rose the first two picks. The Sugar may take the Irish, but if Florida wins out to get to 11-1, I expect that bowl will maintain its SEC connection. But USC’s loss means they won’t look good as a replacement pick for Oregon in Pasadena. If we presume the Trojans won’t win the Pac-12 title that means they would lose a fourth game. The Rose could also choose Oregon State or Stanford in maintain their own league tradition, but with the Irish not having gone west since the 1920s, I think this would be irresistible, as long as the Big Ten opponent isn’t someone they’ve already played.

CURRENT BCS BOWL PROJECCTIONS

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama-Oregon
Sugar: Florida-Oklahoma
Rose:  Nebraska- Notre Dame
Fiesta: Kansas State- Clemson
Orange: Florida State-Rutgers

BCS Bowl Projections: Does November Chaos Loom?

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The month of October is in the books for college football and the crazy season is about to begin. November has a way of throwing a monkey wrench in everyone’s BCS bowl projections. From the strain of a long season to the challenges college kids have with keeping focus as media spin swirls around them to playing high-quality opposition looking to make a name for itself, November almost never goes as planned. Still, TheSportsNotebook is undeterred in making its BCS bowl projections five weeks from the finish line.

We’ll set the stage with picks for how each conference race will shake out, along with noting which teams I think will automatically qualify for BCS selection based on a high enough national ranking. Finally I note which teams will get picked to fill out the at-large field.

The process of creating the pairings then goes thusly…

The Orange (ACC), Sugar, (SEC), Rose (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten) and Fiesta (Big 12) have spots filled automatically be conference champs. The exception, of course, is if those teams are ranked in the top two and go to the BCS National Championship Game. In that event, the bowls that “lose” teams get the first picks from the remaining field. Then the matchups are filled out with a “draft” order of Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, an order that rotates each year. The Orange is choosing last because it’s the venue that’s hosting the national championship game.

Now that the explanations are done, here’s the predictions, including some projected matchups for notable minor bowl slots.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Pac-12: Oregon over USC
ACC: Florida State over Miami
Big Ten: Nebraska over Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas State
Big East: Rutgers
Automatic Qualifiers: Notre Dame, Florida
At-Larger Selections: Clemson, Oklahoma

Comments: As long as Notre Dame as in the top eight they make it automatically. If Florida gets to #4 they would also be guaranteed a slot. There’s some nuances to that, but realistically, if the Gators—currently at #7—win out, they likely ascend to the level of automatic qualifier.

The wild-card in this scenario is Boise State. Currently ranked 19th, the Broncos would have to get to the top 12 to be an automatic. That’s not likely, but there’s an escape hatch—if they reach the top 16 and finish ahead of a BCS conference champion, then automatic qualification kicks in. Boise currently ranks one spot ahead of Nebraska. I don’t think that will hold, but its possible Wisconsin could pull an upset in the Big Ten title game and pave Boise’s path. Or a possible Big East crackup could enable the Broncos to get in. Keep a close eye on this situation.

Clemson only has one loss and needs help if they’re going to win the ACC. But if they win out—a slate that includes South Carolina—the Tigers would be hard to deny at 11-1. The same goes for Oklahoma if they get to 10-2 with their only losses being Notre Dame and Kansas State. Should either Clemson or OU stumble, the Pac-12  can slip a second team into the mix.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Alabama-Notre Dame
Notre Dame is the likeliest of the four unbeaten teams to make it to the finish line, and Alabama will get a heavy benefit of the doubt even if they lose Saturday night at LSU (the Tide could still slip back into the SEC Championship Game). And let’s not kid ourselves—this is the game the networks are dreaming of.

ROSE BOWL: Nebraska-Oregon
I’m not confident of Oregon’s ability to run the table, as they would likely have to beat USC twice and a road trip to Oregon State won’t be a picnic. Nebraska has the inside track in the Big Ten’s Legends Division and would be a solid favorite in the conference title game.

FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State-Clemson
Kansas State’s schedule the rest of the way is tougher than is being let on in the media. Saturday’s home date with Oklahoma State won’t be a picnic, as the Cowboys are improving and have the kind of running game that other K-State opponents don’t have. And a road trip to TCU Is the classic kind of upset spot we see every November. I love the Wildcats and Collin Klein, but I just seem them at 11-1.

SUGAR BOWL: Florida-Oklahoma
At 11-1, the Gators would be logical choice for the Sugar to pick in replacing Alabama. The Sugar always keeps its SEC tie even when they aren’t obligated to, but it would be interesting to see if they stuck to that if Notre Dame is available at 11-1 or even 12-0. New Orleans is also a good venue for the Big 12 runner-up and this game would be a rematch of the 2008 national title game.

ORANGE BOWL: Florida State-Rutgers
Unless Boise State gets in the discussion, you can book the Orange Bowl is being the champs of the ACC and Big East.

OTHER BOWL MATCHUPS

The Big Ten-SEC New Year’s Trifecta
Capital One: LSU-Michigan
Outback: Georgia-Northwestern
Gator: Texas A&M-Michigan State
Comments: Nothing like a January 1 undercard of watching undermatched Big Ten teams play good SEC teams, but that’s what television has decided the country wants. The Capital One and Outback take the teams available right after the BCS is done, in that order. The Gator Bowl only has the sixth-best SEC team, while getting the fourth choice in the Big Ten. My guess is that Michigan State leapfrogged Wisconsin in the pecking order with their overtime win in East Lansing.

Other Conference Runner-Ups
Cotton: Mississippi State-Oklahoma State
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina-N.C. State
Alamo: USC-Texas
Comments: The Cotton Bowl is the Big 12’s runner-up game, with the Chick-Fil-A and Alamo filling that role with the ACC & Pac-12. The Alamo has great possibilities, since they pick third in the Big 12 the possibility of a rematch of the 2005 national title game—the Vince Young-Reggie Bush battle in one of the greatest college games ever played—is a tantalizing option if the Trojans don’t make the BCS.

The Major Bowl Chances For Notre Dame Football

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If there’s been a knock on Notre Dame football over the last several years—and let’s face there have been quite a few—perhaps the foremost is that the Irish have been a little soft. The defense in general was not very good and in particular, the team’s ability to match up in a physical battle was decidedly in doubt. On Saturday night in East Lansing, Notre Dame sent a clear message that this year’s team is different. Michigan State brought a good offensive line and big punishing back in Le’Veon Bell into the game. They scored only three points as a veteran front seven on the Irish defense turned in a shutdown effort. With Notre Dame now 3-0, is this team capable of making a major bowl game for the first time since 2006 and winning one for the first time since 1993?

The short answer to the question is yes, they are at least good enough to make a BCS game. Keep in mind there are four at-large bids given beyond the six automatic spots that go to conference champs. No league can have more than one extra bid, so you have room to concede one to the SEC and Pac-12 and still have room to spare. But Notre Dame is going to need at least nine wins, and possibly ten, to be in position to grab one of those spots. Against a normal schedule, they would likely get there, but an NBC-friendly slate is not necessarily conducive to piling up wins.

And while Notre Dame has made admirable improvement in defending the run and taking care of the ball on offense, a young secondary has not been seriously tested. Michigan State has question marks at quarterback. Looking at the other teams ND has beaten, Navy is a triple-option team and no one knows what to make of Purdue.  The fact the Irish needed a late field goal to beat a historically mediocre program at home could be seen as a big red flag. Or we could note that Purdue has played very well in its tune-ups against bad MAC teams and that Notre Dame was in a jet lag spot after coming home from Dublin, and conclude that it was pretty good. We won’t really know until we have a better handle on how good Purdue is.

So let’s take a mindset that this an improved team running the ball and defending the run, while acknowledging they haven’t been challenged by a good passing offense, nor has their own freshman quarterback Everett Golson been forced to play at the rapid pace that resulted in a lot of Notre Dame turnovers a year ago. And with that backdrop, let’s take a look at what Notre Dame has ahead…

It’s a home date with Michigan coming up. We’re going to preview this Saturday night game in more detail when TheSportsNotebook does its customary Friday prep for the marquee matchups. But Denard Robinson has scorched Notre Dame in his career in Ann Arbor and we’ll find out quickly just how different this Notre Dame defense really is.

Then after a bye week its home games with Miami, Stanford and BYU. In spite of the sex appeal of an ND-Miami matchup for those who remember the 1987-1990 epics, the Hurricanes aren’t very good and the bye week should prevent any letdown from the Irish. Stanford’s win over USC has ratcheted up the impact of their game in South Bend, but the Cardinal is a similar team to Michigan State—question marks at quarterback and a tough running game. Notre Dame now knows they can match up. The visit by BYU declined in importance when the Cougars lost at Utah—I thought it had the potential to be a winner-take-all battle for a BCS bid among the two independents. But unless Riley Nelson gets a lot more consistent, BYU won’t have the passing game to challenge ND in the secondary.

Oklahoma awaits at the end of October and there’s no question how much the pass defense will be challenged by Landry Jones and a Sooner aerial game playing on its home turf. If Notre Dame has only one loss, or is undefeated at this point, OU-ND will have national championship implications and we should probably prepare ourselves for some “Game Of The Century” rhetoric from the media. The jury is still out on Oklahoma right now, mainly because they haven’t been tested. Sitting here in mid-September, I’d be very surprised if Notre Dame came out of Norman with a win.

A home game with Pitt to start the November stretch drive looks less easy after the Panthers dismantled Virginia Tech, and Pitt should get better as the year progresses under new coach Paul Chryst. An ensuing road date with Boston College looks manageable, as the Eagle program appears in decline. Then it’s back home to play Wake Forest. It’s possible the Demon Deacons could get Tanner Price and the passing game going enough to present a challenge. It’s also possible the 52-zip beatdown they took at Florida State, with Price throwing for 82 yards is a sign of things to come. Either way, if we can’t count on a Notre Dame home win over Wake, there’s zero point in having any discussion about major bowl chances in South Bend.

Finally it’s the season-ender at USC. The Trojan loss at Stanford has made this game look more winnable than it was, but until we see tangible evidence that the ND secondary can come through, there is no reason to pick them to win  on the road against Matt Barkley. A more optimistic outlook might say that the Trojans will be coming off a game against UCLA that looks very tough and possibly looking ahead to the Pac-12 Championship Game the following week. As hard it is to think Notre Dame could ever be overlooked, I’m sure that’s the one game of such a sequence that Lane Kiffin could live with losing.

Notre Dame can absorb losses at Oklahoma and USC, the two teams that are not only the best, but ideally suited to exploit any pass defense deficiency in South Bend. Conversely, Notre Dame matches up well in the key home games with Stanford and BYU. It would seem then, that the major bowl push is more about keeping focus week-to-week and doing something like drop a game in Boston College or to improving Pitt, which would not happen if the Irish are prepared to play those games. Even if ND lost to Michigan and ended up 9-3, they would still look attractive to a major bowl considering what’s likely to be poor alternatives among runner-ups in the Big Ten, Big East & ACC. And if ND wins Saturday night and takes care of its business the rest of the way? Then we’re talking 10-2, a lock for a major bowl and the USC game would be about national title implications.

So to bring us full circle, what are Notre Dame’s BCS chances? As tough as the schedule is, as much as I do see the weaknesses, as much as I didn’t really believe in this team at the start of the year, we’d have to say they’re looking pretty good.