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NL wild-card race

MLB Playoff Race: Brewers-Pirates Battle Starts Week

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The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t won a series in September. The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t lost one since the August 17-19 weekend, and the two teams moving in opposite directions have finally crisscrossed in the standings. The Pirates dropped two of three in Wrigley Field over the weekend, while the Brewers rebounded from a Friday night loss to capture a home series with the New York Mets. Milwaukee has moved a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh in the NL wild-card race, with both teams having to catch Los Angeles and St. Louis.

With 2 ½ weeks to go in the MLB playoff race it’s fair to say the Brewers-Pirates three-game series in Pittsburgh starting Tuesday is virtually an elimination series. Milwaukee’s scoring more runs than any National League team for the month of September and Pittsburgh pitching is giving up more. Clint Hurdle turns to A.J. Burnett in the opener and then to Wandy Rodriguez in the matinee finale on Thursday to see if he can turn the tide, in what will be the biggest series in baseball between now and the weekend, and the biggest matchup between these two sports markets since the Packers-Steelers Super Bowl following the 2010 season.

Pittsburgh might be discouraged with their September pitching, but perhaps no team has more reason to be surprised by September results than the Los Angeles Dodgers do with their offense. In spite of adding Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and Adrian Gonzalez, the Dodgers have the worst offense in the NL this month. They managed to split four with St. Louis and are still only a game out of the wild-card, but now they make a road trip to Washington to start the week. The Dodgers won’t have to face Gio Gonzalez, the new Nats ace now that Stephen Strasburg is shut down, but now they have to worry about Clayton Kershaw’s health after he was scratched from his start against St. Louis. LA is only a game and a half up on Milwaukee right now and with the way the Brewers are playing, it seems like a matter of time before the Dodgers finally give way.

Los Angeles’ other team, the Angels, is still hanging in. The Halos rebounded from a disastrous series against Oakland last week to pick up a couple weekend wins over Kansas City and hanging within 2.5 games of Baltimore for the final wild-card spot, and Los Angeles has moved past Tampa Bay and Detroit, albeit not by much. Now they take on AL West-leading Texas and have the rotation set for Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Zack Greinke to go. If LAA wins, it tightens up the wild-card race and may also further tighten the AL West race. While the Angels aren’t a factor there, Oakland continues to keep on Texas’ heels. The A’s won a big weekend series over the Orioles at home remain just three games back for a division title that likely also carries the #1 seed in the AL playoffs with it.

Oakland takes on Detroit in Comerica Park starting Tuesday night. The Tigers faced must-win time on the road last week and responded, going 4-2 in Chicago and Cleveland and are still two games out in the AL Central. Before getting to the Oakland series though, the Tigers play a makeup game with the White Sox on Monday afternoon, a makeup of last Thursday’s rainout. Detroit sends Doug Fister, who beat Chicago last Wednesday to the mound this afternoon and will have Justin Verlander lined up for Wednesday night back home. For their part, the White Sox swept three in the Twin Cities with a shutout from Chris Sale on Friday and Francisco Liriano taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday. Chicago plays three against Kansas City starting Tuesday, with Sale set to pitch the finale.

Other series involving contenders are…

Boston-Tampa Bay: It was a disastrous road swing for the Rays as they lost five of six to Baltimore and New York and are now five out in the AL East and four back in the wild-card. The good news? Four home games with Boston start a nine-game diet of Red Sox & Blue Jays that are just the ticket for a team that needs to win a lot of games in a hurry.

Toronto-NY Yanks: All eyes are on Andy Pettite as he returns to the mound for the opener on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Last week was a survival one for the Yanks, who played six close games against Boston & Tampa and managed to win four. But one of the losses came when C.C. Sabathia was roughed up and further underscored how much the Yanks need a big-time pitcher to step up right now.

Baltimore-Seattle: Prior to last weekend in Oakland, the Birds hadn’t lost a series since August 20-22 in Texas. But even just taking one game in Oakland clinched Baltimore’s first winning season since 1997. Now they continue a nine-game road swing with Felix Hernandez awaiting them on Wednesday night.

Houston-St. Louis: Was anything more unexpected this past weekend than Houston taking three of four from Philadelphia? Now the 48-99 Astros take the spoiler game to St. Louis, whose split in Los Angeles salvaged a tough West Coast trip and kept them in the wild-card lead.

Atlanta-Miami: The Braves swept the Nationals this weekend, keeping themselves at least breathing in the NL East race, at 5.5 games back and in complete command on securing at least one wild-card spot. Atlanta also activated Ben Sheets from the disabled list, though he won’t pitch in this series. Kris Medlen will though, as the red-hot starter goes in Wednesday’s finale.

Cincinnati-ChiCubs: Cincy couldn’t take advantage of Miami this weekend, losing two of three, though they remain 4.5 games up on NL West-leading San Francisco for homefield advantage in what would be a Division Series matchup if the season ended today. And even one win for the Reds nudged them closer to Washington for the top seed and right to play the wild-card game winner in the divisional playoff round. The Reds send Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto to the hill on Wednesday.

Colorado-San Francisco: The Giants are pretty well coasting to the finish line and send Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to the mound against a Colorado team that shows zero signs of wanting to play spoiler.

Philadelphia & Arizona both lost weekend series, to  Houston and San Francisco respectively. The Phils and Diamondbacks are 4 and 4.5 games out, a number that by itself is doable, but the Pirates, Brewers, Dodgers and Cardinals all to catch—in addition to beating out each other, and given the fact that both Philly and Arizona are sub-.500, they both should be moved off the playoff radar screen unless they sweep to start the week. The Phils are in Citi Field to play the Mets, while the Diamondbacks host the Padres.

Phils & Brewers Join The Fray In National League Wild Card Race

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The American League playoff race got a little bit of clarity this week thanks to some decisive results in showdown series, but the once-clear National League suddenly has a wild finish on its hands. While the division titles are all firmly in hand, as Washington, Cincinnati and San Francisco continue to run away with first place, and the first wild card is under solid control by Atlanta, the second wild-card now has at least five viable contenders.

Philadelphia & Milwaukee are whom we have to thank for this exciting mess, as the Phils & Brewers—the teams with the best records in the National League a year ago—have caught fire since making trade deadline dumps (the Phils ridding themselves of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence, the Brewers dealing Zack Greinke). The Phils are 72-72 and four back of St. Louis for the final spot. Milwaukee’s a bit better at 72-71 and 3.5 back. Each team has taken a divergent path to get here.

It can’t come as any surprise that the Phils have done it with pitching. It was the strength of the team even before the trade deadline moves gutted the starting lineup. It also can’t come as any surprise that the Big Three of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are a combined 14-6 since the All-Star break. But it will surely come as a surprise that it’s Kyle Kendrick who’s turned into the ace of the staff, on a 7-2 run with a 2.34 ERA in the season’s second half.  Offensively, the return of Chase Utley (.375 OBP/.491 Slugging) has given them just enough offense to get by.

Milwaukee’s done it with the bats, the path that would make the 1982 Harvey’s Wallbangers pennant-winners proud. The Brewers lead the National League in runs scored for the entire year and have naturally been even hotter since the All-Star break. Ryan Braun is putting together another MVP-caliber season, and he’s currently getting a lot of help from Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez—the latter in particular, has slugged .609 since the break, a positively scorching number. But no turnaround has mattered more than that of Rickie Weeks. The second baseman, the best in the National League at his position a year ago spent most of 2012 in a funk that made you wonder if he’d become a zombie. In the season’s second half, Weeks is back to his old self, with a .357/.491 stat line.

If the Phils or Brewers are to complete this miracle run they’ll need to become more complete. The Phillies can’t afford to drop a couple 3-2 games in a row, nor can the Brewers blow the leads their offense gives them—even in the second half the atrocious Milwaukee bullpen has still blown 13 saves, second-worst in the National League. But that we’re even having this conversation about both teams right now is amazing enough and even if a playoff run comes up short, a winning season would be a big deal.

Philadelphia has a four-game series with Houston this weekend—they dropped the opener last night to temporarily halt their momentum, but it’s still as ideal a schedule spot as you could want. Milwaukee hosts the Mets, who’ve dropped six in a row.

The Phils & Brewers need to win because this is a weekend where someone at the top of the race for the second wild-card is going to win. St. Louis is in Los Angeles for a four-game series that started last night against the Dodgers and the Cards edged out a 2-1 win behind Lance Lynn, restored to the starting rotation. Josh Beckett pitched well for Los Angeles, but only went 5.1 IP and we’ve seen little evidence that the Beckett who once worked into the seventh and eighth innings for Boston is ready to be his old self again. The Sunday finale for this series features an Adam Wainwright-Clayton Kershaw showdown. It would have been a nice choice for Sunday Night Baseball instead of Washington-Atlanta. I understand ESPN’s thinking—the Nats and Braves are superior teams—but it seems difficult to argue the point that Washington is going to win the NL East and Atlanta will host the wild-card game. It would take a sweep in either direction to even remotely contest either point.

The two other notable series in the National League are Pittsburgh’s visit to Wrigley Field that starts Friday afternoon. The Pirates were inexplicably swept at home by the Cubs last week and can be thankful they’re still only three back of the Cardinals. And San Francisco goes to Arizona. You can make a case for the Diamondbacks as another longshot comeback, as they’re 71-72 and only 4.5 back of a playoff berth. I’d still like to see them break .500 first.

When the week began TheSportsNotebook talked about showdown battles in the American League, and it was Baltimore and Oakland who came up big. The Orioles swept the Rays, capping it off with yesterday afternoon’s 3-2 win in 14 innings. The A’s took three of four from the Angels, in Anaheim no less. Los Angeles had to rely on Jered Weaver to bail them out yesterday with seven shutout innings that averted a sweep with a 6-0 win.

The consequence of all this is that Oakland the AL East runner-up—either Baltimore or New York, who are currently tied—now have opened up a lead for the wild-card. Los Angeles is 3.5 back of the East runner-up, while Tampa Bay is four back. It sets up a must-win weekend for the Rays, who pay a visit to the Bronx. Winning two of three is an absolute necessity for Tampa, and with just nineteen games left Tampa might need a road sweep.

New York got 7.1 innings of shutout baseball from Phil Hughes last night, as they edged Boston 2-0 and were able to take two of three from the woeful Red Sox. With New York coming home and Baltimore doing a six-game western swing that starts tonight in Oakland, the Yankees have to see this as their chance to put to rest any doubts about them making the playoffs and re-open a lead in the AL East.

The A’s are in command of the wild-card picture and still have their eyes on chasing down Texas, where there’s only a three-game margin. While Oakland battles Baltimore in that Destiny’s Darlings series, the Rangers will be hosting Seattle. The Mariners haven’t gone away quietly this season and at 69-75 still have a shot at .500 and have been a tough out for contenders.

And the much anticipated Justin Verlander-Chris Sale showdown in the Tigers-White Sox finale last night was rained out, keeping Chicago in first place in the Central by a game. Detroit is 5.5 back of the wild-card, so that option is all but done. The teams will take to the road, with the Tigers going to Cleveland the White Sox heading north to Minnesota. The division leaders will then return to the Windy City on Monday afternoon to makeup last night’s rainout, a previously scheduled off-day for both teams.

MLB Playoff Race: Orioles & Yanks Tied Again In AL East

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The AL East race is back to a dead heat after last night’s dramatic finish in Fenway Park. With Baltimore having beaten Tampa Bay 9-2, attention swung to the Yankees-Red Sox games, and when Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury broke a 3-3 tie in the ninth with an RBI single, the Yanks were back to even with the Orioles, with the Rays still hanging at two games back.

J.J. Hardy was the hero for Baltimore, as the shortstop delivered four hits, including a pair of home runs and five RBIs and the Birds chased Matt Moore early. Matt Wieters came up with three hits for Baltimore, including an RBI single that started the scoring and a two-run double that broke it open in the fifth. But the Orioles can’t escape the injury bug. After losing Nick Markakis for the season with a broken thumb over the weekend, they saw starting pitcher Jason Hammel leave after four innings last night with what appears to be recurring knee problem, one that already had him on the disabled list. Since his return, Hammel has pitched 10 total innings against the Yankees and Rays and only given up two runs.  If he can’t make the four starts he’d be up for over the next 21 games, it’s a significant loss for Buck Showalter’s team.

But speaking of significant losses, it’s looking like now is about the time the Yankees are really starting to feel the absence of Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. Over the course of a long year, a good manager—which Joe Girardi is—can maneuver people around in the bullpen and find ways to close out games. We are, after all, talking about a closer’s role that boils down to getting three outs, maybe three times a week (at most). But in September the magnitude of those three outs increases and David Robertson hasn’t been up to it. He was hammered by Baltimore last Thursday night and beaten by Boston yesterday, each time taking the loss in a tie game. Do the Yankees lose these games if Rivera is on the mound? They probably at least get one win and maybe two.

In the AL Central, Detroit faced some early trouble in Chicago, trailing 2-0, when their stars came up big. Austin Jackson tied with a  two-run homer in the fifth and two batters later, Miguel Cabrera went deep to give the Tigers a lead they would not relinquish. Doug Fister gave seven strong innings in the 5-3 win that ensures that even if they lose tonight, Detroit can still turn to Justin Verlander to salvage a split on Thursday. It’s also worth nothing that DeWayne Wise homered for the White Sox early. Wise, you may recall, was the player the Yankees let go to make room for Ichiro Suzuki. Since the trade, Wise’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage are .330/.486, while Ichiro is on .320/.419. New York didn’t give up much to get Suzuki, but what they had to clear out to make room for him is looking costly.

And in the AL West, Oakland continued to keep a two-game lead for the wild-card push, beating back the Angels 6-5 and ensuring they will win the road series that ends this afternoon. Brandon Moss homered for the second straight game, and Yoenis Cespedes went deep early on against journeyman starter Jerome Williams. The Angels are trying to ride Mike Trout and Tori Hunter, who combined for six hits at the top of the order, but Albert Pujols continues to struggle. He’s managed one single and zero walks in the first two games of this critical series. And the bullpen continues to let the Halos down. Trailing 4-3 in the ninth, Kevin Jepsen allowed two insurance runs to Oakland that proved crucial when his offense rallied in the bottom of the frame. Texas held its lead for first place, tagging Ubaldo Jiminez early and beating Cleveland 6-4, a game that was never really in doubt.

In the National League, the wild-card contenders continue to stumble to the finish line. Pittsburgh’s Kevin Correia gave up four runs early in a 6-4 loss to Cincinnati and at 72-69, the Pirates might not even end their odious 20-year streak without a winning season much less make the playoffs. Adam Wainwright was unable to handle San Diego’s offense, as the Cardinal starter gave up five runs in the fourth, with the Padres also winning 6-4. And the Dodgers couldn’t capitalize, as Ian Kennedy outdueled Clayton Kershaw in a 1-0 game that saw just nine combined hit, seven of them singles.

The stumbles of St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have made a miracle finish possible and now that Philadelphia and Milwaukee have each made it back to the .500 level at 71-71 and are within four games, be assured thoughts of the playoffs aren’t far from anyone’s mind. Cliff Lee gets the ball for the Phils today, a reminder that a team with Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels can get as hot as anyone.

Three Big Early Week Matchups Key Race For National League Playoffs

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The road proved to be what the Los Angeles Dodgers needed. After a disappointing homestand, the Dodgers went to Miami this past weekend and stabilized the ship by winning two of three and set themselves up for a huge four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on the banks of the Allegheny River starting tonight. Is it too much to say this is the biggest series for these teams since they met in the 1974 NLCS? Probably not. The Pirates are holding a 2.5 game over the Dodgers for the last wild-card berth and the hosts are coming off a tough weekend, losing a home series to lowly San Diego. Pittsburgh has slipped 4.5 games of Cincinnati and needs to plant its feet in the best series of a great early week schedule for the National League.

Los Angeles is getting good pitching right now, third in the NL in ERA since the All-Star break and Tuesday and Wednesday will be their target games, when red-hot Chad Billingsley takes the mound, followed by Clayton Kershaw. Pittsburgh needs to win Thursday’s game when James McDonald gets the ball against Joe Blanton, the mediocre veteran acquired by the Dodgers who was the one starter to lose for them in Miami. That leaves tonight’s opener as a big potential swing game in the series when it’s Jeff Karstens for the Pirates against Aaron Harang for the Dodgers. Harang has pitched in this park many times as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, but perhaps never in a bigger situation than tonight.

Other key series in the National League…

Arizona-St. Louis: Both teams are coming off series losses this weekend, the Cardinals in Philadelphia and the D-Backs at home against Washington. Ever since Arizona won TheSportsNotebook’s praise a couple weeks ago as the surging team they’ve yet to win a series and at five out in the NL West and little chance at the wild-card, this season is in danger of slipping away. St. Louis had to put Lance Berkman on the disabled list again—this time until at least early September with his troubled knee—but the Cards are getting good pitching. Adam Wainwright was sharp in his last start against San Francisco and St. Louis is just 2.5 games back of Pittsburgh for a wild-card spot.

Washington-San Francisco: The Nats are 10-3 in the month of August and have managed to build a 4.5 game over Atlanta in the NL East in spite of the fact the Braves are playing good baseball themselves. These two pitching-heavy teams also lead the National League in runs scored since the All-Star break. I’m sure it’s just a temporary hot streak and not something that’s harbinger of things to come, but at least for these series we need to be prepared for a few more runs than normal. Perhaps 5-3 type games instead of 3-2. The Wednesday finale will be a matinee special on the MLB Network and feature Tim Lincecum and Stephen Strasburg. Lincecum lost to lowly Colorado on Friday night, but the 3-0 defeat was more about the offense than him. Here’s yet another chance for the two-time Cy Young Award winner to give the Frisco fan base some confidence as they cling to a one-game lead over the Dodgers.

San Diego-Atlanta: Atlanta just completed a 4-2 swing through Philadelphia and New York and now has home series with NL West teams, as the Dodgers follow the Padres into Turner Field this week. San Diego is swinging the bats well right now, with the weekend spoiler display in Pittsburgh being one part of what’s been some pretty good play of late.

NY Mets-Cincinnati: Joey Votto’s had a setback in his recovery from a knee injury and his return will be delayed up to ten days, pushing it back to late August. With Cincy taking advantage of last weekend in Wrigley to rip off three wins and build their division lead back to 4.5, there’s no reason to rush him. And Votto’s teammates have done the job in picking up the slack. The Reds rank in 5-6 spots in the NL for both runs scored and ERA since the All-Star break, so Dusty Baker’s crew has really come together in their star’s absence.

In the American League…

Texas-NY Yanks: This series is probably more sizzle than steak, with both teams still holding respectable leads in their divisions and the likelihood is both are just racing for the #1 seed in the AL playoffs. Which is obviously not inconsequential, but for it to matter you’d have to see both teams win their Division Series matchups, the LCS go to the #1 seed and in a way that makes it clear homefield swung it. So yes, it’s possible the Rangers-Yanks race might matter, but unlikely.

What is becoming more interesting though is that the New York lead in the AL East is down to five games, with both Tampa Bay and Baltimore still lurking in striking distance. I know a lot of people are skeptical the Orioles rotation can get on the kind of hot streak needed to make up that margin, but no one doubts the Tampa staff’s ability to carry a team for seven weeks. Now the Yanks have lost C.C. Sabathia for a couple weeks, and Texas played well over the weekend, winning two of three from Detroit. And that Josh Hamilton slump of July that got such media attention has given way to a ten-game hitting streak in August.

This is the only AL series in the early part of the week where both teams are contenders, and I know it will come as a shock that a Yankee series will see all three games go on national television (Monday ESPN, Tuesday MLB Network, Wednesday ESPN). You’re right, no one was interested in any of the big National League series discussed above.

Boston-Baltimore: Oriole starter Wei-Yin Chen has been one of the underrated pitchers of this season, and with due apologies to Texas’ Yu Darvish, the best Japanese import of 2012. Chen was knocked around on Thursday by Kansas City though, and with red-hot Red Sox starter Clay Bucholz looming in the Thursday finale of this three-game set, the Birds would prefer to lock up the series the opening two nights.

Tampa Bay-Seattle: The Rays are off consecutive sweeps over Toronto and Minnesota, and their team ERA is the best in the American League since the All-Star break by over a run. Each starting pitcher is clicking and we all know what they did down the stretch last September. It’s enough to make everyone in the Bronx look nervously over their shoulder.

ChiSox-Toronto: Chicago stepped up with a clutch two-of-three weekend over Oakland at home, but this is a danger spot for the White Sox, as they hold on to a two-game lead over Detroit in the AL Central. Paul Konerko is doing a brief stint on the disabled list. Kevin Youkilis is playing, but dealing with an arm injury. Francisco Liriano was rocked on Saturday by an Oakland lineup that scares no one. Fortunately for the White Sox, Toronto is slumping and its everyday lineup is now starting to join the pitching staff in the trainer’s room.

Oakland-Kansas City: The Royals are at the bottom of the AL Central, but they aren’t going quietly against contenders in August, scraping out a four-game split in Baltimore over the weekend and beating the White Sox early last week. The A’s will give Brandon McCarthy his second start since returning from the disabled list in Wednesday’s middle game. Oakland is still just a half-game back of Baltimore for the last wild-card berth.

Detroit-Minnesota: Minnesota’s hot bats were cooled by Tampa pitching over the weekend and the Twins “caught” Kansas City at the bottom of the AL Central. This is a big series for Detroit. After finishing up in the Twin Cities they come home for nine games, so this is a chance to push past Chicago in the AL Central. And with Justin Verlander not scheduled until Thursday’s homestand opener against Baltimore, the Tigers need to show their other starters can take care of a bad team.

Cleveland-LA Angels: Can the Angels stop the bleeding? They’ve now lost three straight series, including this weekend against Seattle. And while Cleveland has been collapsing, they split four games with Boston, showing they can still match up with mediocre teams not playing to their potential, and at 60-55 that’s what the Angels have become.