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9 Thoughts On The National League Landscape

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The National League has baseball’s best division race and two red-hot races for individual awards. Here’s nine thoughts on the NL landscape with 6 ½ weeks to go in the regular season…

*There’s no topic in baseball more important to me right now than that Cincinnati Reds’ ace Johnny Cueto get his due as the Cy Young frontrunner. He’s got an ERA of 2.05 while pitching in an extreme hitters’ park. Clayton Kershaw has been fantastic, at a buck-78 ERA and a no-hitter, but also pitches in Dodger Stadium. The battle between Cueto, Kershaw and Adam Wainwright in St. Louis for the Cy Young is a true battle, and the media’s love affair with Kershaw shouldn’t blind them to that.

*The difference in the NL MVP race might be the Miami Marlins’ bullpen. Miami rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton should be the frontrunner, with his .395 on-base percentage/.563 slugging percentage and 31 home runs that tie him for the league lead. What’s going to cost him is if the Marlins come up short in the wild-card race—and if that happens, blame the bullpen, with their 17 blown saves and 12th-place NL ranking in save percentage.

Baseball*Stanton is part of a trend where a lot of MVP-caliber talent in the National League is on bad teams. We can include two great first basemen, Anthony Rizzo in Chicago and Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona. Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was leading this list until being recently sidelined for the year. San Diego Padres’ outfielder Sean Smith is having a surprise big year. We might want to reconsider the notion that an MVP has to come from a playoff team—this is an individual award, and it’s nice for the individual to actually have a year worthy of the honor.

*There’s no division race better than the NL Central, with the Milwaukee Brewers up two games on St. Louis and 2 ½ on the Pittsburgh Pirates. This could end up a war of attrition—the Cards have already lost Yadier Molina and Michael Wacha until at least mid-September (and that’s being optimistic). The Pirates just put Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list. And while not as flashy, don’t overlook the importance of a fragile Brewer staff losing starter Matt Garza for a little while, right when Garza had gotten on a roll.

READ 9 THOUGHTS ON THE AMERICAN LEAGUE LANDSCAPE

*There’s one pitcher in the National League who is tied with the Cueto/Kershaw/Wainwright trio for wins, at fourteen. The name? It’s Wily Peralta in Milwaukee, with a 3.46 ERA to go with it. Whether Peralta, a live young arm with great stuff, can pitch well down the stretch is the biggest factor—beyond health of the contenders—in deciding whether the Brewers hold off the Cards and Pirates.

*And the third big factor in this NL Central race is the bullpens. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both have problems here, ranking 9th and 10th in the league in save percentage and being below 70 percent at closing out their chances. St. Louis is up at 77 percent, but that’s still just 8th in the NL.

*One team without any bullpen problems is the Washington Nationals. The Nats have Rafael Soriano to close the door, to go with Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen right in front of him, all with sub-2.00 ERAs. Washington has relievers for their fifth and sixth options that would get immediate prominence on the staff of any of the NL Central contenders. Washington is a nice all-around team, but it’s this pen that’s the biggest reason for their comfortable six-game lead in the NL East.

*It’s been nice watching the overachieving San Francisco Giants hang in the NL West race all year, but it appears the raw talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers is finally taking over, as the Dodgers have nudged out to a 5 ½ game lead. San Fran is still very much alive in the wild-card race, but they needed the breaks to go their way to beat the lavishly funded Dodgers, and those breaks have been anything but kind in Frisco.

*If you ever doubt the importance of park effects on player stats, take a look at the collective examples of the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres. The Rockies, in the ultimate hitters’ park of Coors Field, are first in the NL in runs scored and last in ERA. The Padres, in the ultimate pitching environment of Petco Park, are first in ERA and last in runs scored. Parks matter. And whenever I bring this subject up, I’m bringing it back to use as evidence for why Johnny Cueto is better than Clayton Kershaw. Let those two pitchers change parks for a season, and it would no longer be a debate.

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The National League MVP Debate

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We’re wrapping up the baseball regular season here at TheSportsNotebook, and in this post we’ll focus on the National League MVP vote and other major individual awards. After picking a National League All-Star team yesterday, we’ll now narrow it down to the four players I think  need to be in the MVP conversation—Buster Posey for San Francisco, Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun, Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen and the dark horse contender would be Chase Headley in San Diego.

The politics of MVP voting will work in Posey’s favor, as he’s the only one on a playoff team, so we’ll begin with his case. It’s a strong one, built around his .408 on-base percentage and a nice power year, marked by 24 home runs and .549 slugging. He was at his best after Melky Cabrera was suspended and Frisco became more dependent on Posey’s bat. And as a catcher he did all this at a very demanding position.

Braun hit 41 home runs to lead the National League and kept the Brewers in the playoff race to the very end and also helped them achieve a winning season with a strong September push. His .391 on-base percentage was dazzling and he was the clear leader on a team where it took a while for the other component parts—Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart most notably to really get in gear. Braun kept the offense afloat when his teammates were struggling and when they got hot and enabled him to get more pitches to hit, he took off.

If we’d have had this conversation six weeks ago, Andrew McCutchen would have been a lock, as Pittsburgh was on the fringes of playoff contention and their centerfielder was putting up huge numbers. The team faded and McCutchen slumped in September as a well, but this is still an award that’s based on the full body of work. McCutchen’s .400/.553 stat line for on-base percentage and slugging percentage was outstanding and with little to no offensive support, he still drove in 96 runs and scored 107, all the while playing a stellar defensive centerfielder.

No one thinks of Chase Headley as anything more than a pretty good up-and-comer at third base, but did you know the Padre third sacker lead the National League in RBIs with 115? He posted a .376/.498 stat line while hitting in one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks and popped 31 home runs. How many home runs might the left-handed hitting Headley have drilled in Yankee Stadium?

My choice of these four would be Braun, because he brings the complete package of statistical dominance, importance to his team and then helping lead the team to a winning record after they were decimated in free agency prior to the season (Prince Fielder) and gutted at the July 31 trade deadline (Zack Greinke). I’m not sure why a playoff berth is considered magical for winning the award, but helping an undermanned team win more than they lose is not.

Dodger fans, I hear you. Matt Kemp had the exact same argument a year ago, and Braun won the award over him. All I can say is that wasn’t my doing—in 2011, I felt Kemp deserved to be the MVP, using mostly the same argument advanced in the paragraph above. That same logic this year points to Braun.

If we look at pitchers, I don’t see a serious candidate for MVP, but the Cy Young race is very compelling with R.A. Dickey, Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto. Had Cueto gotten his 20th win last weekend, I’d have considered him an easy winner—he also has a 2.78 ERA, which is ahead of Gonzalez and only 0.05 points behind Dickey, in spite of the fact Cueto pitches in an extreme hitters’ park.

Cueto didn’t get #20 though,  so there’s a decision to be made. If it’s just about a one-win difference in the case of Dickey, and a two-win difference with Gonzalez, should that really matter just because they fall on the 20-game border? I’m okay with this mattering to a certain extent. Baseball functions by magic numbers, players are very aware of them and I think it adds something special to the game for this to be a vibrant part of the debate. But it should only matter if you feel the debate is really close. To me, it’s not—Cueto’s role as the ace on a team that won with pitching should put him in the top five of the MVP voting. Dickey and Gonzalez had very good years, but weren’t at that level.

Finally we come to Manager of the Year. Clint Hurdle looked like a runaway winner for a little while, but then Pittsburgh collapsed hard. When you consider the talent (or lack thereof) that Hurdle had, I still think he did a good job, but I’d like a Manager of the Year to have a winning record.

The guy I’ll go with is Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta. He had to overcome the hangover of last year’s collapse (ask any of us in Red Sox Nation how easy that is), his starting pitching was far from reliable and he still won 94 games and easily rolled into the playoffs. Gonzalez also had a top starting pitcher whose innings had to be limited. Unlike the higher-ups in Washington, Gonzalez actually thought ahead, and had Kris Medlen start later rather than be shut down earlier. Medlen’s only been the hottest pitcher in baseball and is set to pitch Friday’s wild-card game. A good job all the way around by the Atlanta skipper.

Thus, we conclude the National League season with choices of Ryan Braun for MVP, Johnny Cueto for Cy Young and Fredi Gonzalez for Manager of the Year. Click here to read the choices in the American League.

The National League MVP Race With A Month To Go

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Andrew McCutchen has been seen as the runaway leader for the National League MVP, although the Pirates’ struggle to hold on the playoff race make take its toll in the final voting for their centerfielder. What McCutchen does have going for him is that there aren’t clear-cut candidates from other contenders. With that as the landscape, let’s size up the race for National League MVP as the regular season has exactly four weeks left.

In yesterday’s post about the AL MVP race I noted two disclaimers—I don’t have the same bias in favor of players on contenders, nor do I have a problem with starting pitchers, given the impact on the games they pitch. This was seen last year when I opted for Matt Kemp over Ryan Braun in the National League race. Kemp had numbers that were a little bit better, he played on a team without a lot of lineup support and he helped the 2011 Dodgers reach .500, a legitimate team accomplishment given the talent level. I cite this not to rehas the ’11 race, but to note the irony—things have come full circle and that’s exactly the argument that Braun can bring to the table in 2012.

The Brewer left fielder has a .389/.605 stat line for on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He’s batting .312, and has driven in 98 runs. Even more surprising given the lack of great offensive talent around him after the loss of Prince Fielder, Braun has also scored 90 runs. And for those who thought he’d lose power after the steroid controversy of the offseason? How about 37 home runs, the final seal of vindication. And in spite of not just losing Fielder, trading Zack Greinke and in general having an injury-riddled season, the Brewers have a  shot at .500, with a 66-69 record. Furthermore, the offense ranks 3rd in the league in runs scored, meaning it’s the Braun-led attack carrying the team. As far as I’m concerned that adds up to a good definition of an MVP.

Before we give the lead in the race to Bruan though, let’s vet the other candidates. McCutchen’s stat line is .409/.565, and while he doesn’t have the same power as Braun (24 home runs), he’s hitting .347 and statheads believe—and I agree—that a point of on-base percentage is worth more than a point of slugging percentage. And it’s the former where McCutchen is superior to Braun. The Pirate lineup provides no real support and though Pittsburgh ranks 13th in the NL in runs scored, without McCutchen they would likely rank about 18th in the 16-team National League. In spite of it, the Pirates are still in striking distance of a wild-card sport and certainly in position to seal their first winning season since 1992. That too, adds up to a good definition of an MVP.

The dark horse candidate in this field would be San Francisco catcher Buster Posey. At .401/.527, his stat line isn’t as dazzling, but the relative value of a catcher posting numbers like that can make up for a statistical gap. If we had to vote right now, I’d still have Posey in third, mainly because for much of this season he’s had help from Melky Cabrera, who was having an MVP-level season of his own before being suspended for steroid use. If Posey closes with a flourish, it eliminates that argument and it certainly helps if San Francisco holds its lead in the NL West. The offense has been a bigger part of Frisco’s success this year, and Posey is the biggest remaining reason.

We can give a shout-out to players like Carlons Gonzalez (.382/.532), David Wright (.403/.501) and Matt Holliday (.379/.522), although they are second-level candidates. Holliday is stacked with support in St. Louis, while Gonzalez has the aid of Coors Field in Colorado. Wright could make a stronger case given the tough dimensions of New York’s Citi Field, although even given that I’d like to see the slugging percentage come up 20-25 more points before considering him for the award.

Pitching-wise, Wright’s teammate R.A. Dickey has won 18 games and worked nearly 200 innings already, while Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto has a 17-7 record and 2.58 ERA. Because Cueto, who works in a much worse pitching environment than Dickey, has a slightly better ERA (Dickey’s at 2.64) I’d have to give the nod to the Cincy ace. He’d also make a worthy candidate for MVP,  but even though his 188 IP is solid, it’s a little behind what I’d want to see from a starting pitcher before giving him the nod (Justin Verlander worked 240 IP a year ago and won 24 games by way of comparison).

As the race stands right now, I’d give Braun a slight edge over McCutchen, with Posey coming hard on the outside and still a possibility for Cueto if he finishes on a tear.

The National League MVP Race

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TheSportsNotebook’s midseason MVP voting continues today, with a look at the National League. As I explained in yesterday’s preface to the American League Top 10, there are two areas that conventional voters weight much more heavily than I do. I could care less if someone is on a contender, though I will at least give consideration to whether they helped their team achieve a significant goal (which could be a winning season for a long-suffering franchise as much as it could a playoff berth for a consistent one). And I have no bias against pitchers, given how big their impact is on the games they start. With that said, here’s how the Top 10 in the National League MVP race breaks down at TheSportsNotebook…

1)Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh): Whatever criteria you want to look at, McCutchen is bringing it. He’s batting .362 with an on-base percentage up over .400. He’s hitting for power and slugging an astronomical .625. He does it without any real support in the lineup and he’s the biggest reason a long-suffering franchise is not only in position for its first winning season since 1992, but is in first place in the NL Central. While I don’t think he leads the field by as much as Josh Hamilton does in the American League, the Pirate centerfielder is still a clear #1 choice.

2)Ryan Braun (Milwaukee): Here’s where my non-bias against non-contending teams comes in, though I suppose Milwaukee does have an outside shot at a wild-card push if they don’t trade Zack Greinke. But Braun has hit 24 home runs, has 61 RBI and his on-base percentage is at .391. This in spite of losing his lineup support when Prince Fielder left for Detroit, and having his table-setter, Rickie Weeks, morph from an All-Star into one of the worst everyday players in the game. Last year I did not vote for Braun at season’s end, opting instead for Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp, who posted big numbers in a bad lineup. I understand why the actual voters will have bias against Braun based on the Brewers’ record, and since that same factor worked in his favor last year, all’s fair. But all’s got to be fair at TheSportsNotebook as well, and I see the Milwaukee left fielder as a close second.

3)David Wright (NY Mets): The .563 slugging percentage is a little lower than the other contenders, but of the top four hitters in the National League, Wright is the only one who plays in a true pitchers’ park at Citi Field. And the .441 on-base percentage is outstanding, as are the 59 RBI in a lineup without a lot of help. He’s carried the everyday lineup as the Mets exceed expectations.

4)Joey Votto (Cincinnati): I have him lower than the mainstream media consensus would suggest, given that this race is generally posited as Votto vs. McCutchen. While I would concur that the Cincy first baseman is very close to the top, and the OBP/Slugging stat line is dazzling at .417/.617, he is in one of the best hitters’ parks. And to my surprise, Votto graded out very poorly on the defensive metrics (areas where McCutchen and Braun excelled, and Wright at least treaded water). In a race this close, everything matters and defense was enough to push Votto down to fourth.

5)R.A. Dickey (NY Mets):The knuckleballer has done for the Mets’ pitching what Wright has done for the everyday lineup and that’s invite everyone to get on his back for a ride. Dickey’s not only got the 12 wins and the 2.40 ERA, he’s got 120 innings pitched, a serious workload for a starter in this day and age. The downside? Given Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, I think the ERA has to come down even more. A tough expectation, but this is the MVP we’re talking about and this year’s field is a competitive one.

Insert a theoretical page break here. Because I can see a credible argument for any of the top five to win the award based strictly on performance to date. Below this line, anyone else would be a stretch, though a second-half surge could alter the equation.

6)Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati): His ERA is a nudge below Dickey’s, at 2.39 and Cueto’s got 10 wins and the same 120 IP. Why isn’t’ the above the line then? It’s a relative value question. While Cincy’s pitching isn’t great, they aren’t quite as dependent on their ace as New York is on theirs.  But while I rank Cueto sixth right now, I expect him to pass Dickey for the Cy Young season’s end and move up this list.

7)Melky Cabrera (San Francisco): With a .353 batting average, Melky and Buster Posey kept the San Francisco offense afloat when Pablo Sandoval was hurt, and the team at least stayed above water. Now Cabrera is a big part of what’s been push right into the NL West race. With seven home runs a .519 slugging percentage, he’s not top-tier MVP material, but easily a Top 10 choice.

8)Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta): Closers, like DH’s, are a spot I do have something of a bias against, given how specialized the role is. If you don’t share my view, you could move Kimbrel into the top tier right now. He’s closed 25/26 save chances, has a 1.36 ERA and Atlanta is a team very dependent on its bullpen as they hang in the race for both the NL East and the wild-card.

Time another theoretical line break. While I could see Cueto, Cabrera or Kimbrel moving up to serious contention by season’s end, it’s highly unlikely anyone below this will do any more than merit honorable mention.

9)Carlos Ruiz (Philadelphia): The veteran catcher has been a bright spot in a lost season, posting  a .412/.584 stat line, keyed by a .350 batting average. The factors holding him back are being a hitter’s park, and while I don’t hold non-contending status against a player, it’s harder to justify when that status is on a big underachieving team.

10)James McDonald (Pittsburgh): We open and close this Top 10 with a Pirate. As good as McCutchen has been, it’s pitching that has kept the Pittsburgh ship sailing and McDonald has nine wins with a 2.37 ERA. He’s got ten fewer IP than Dickey or Cueto, accounting for his being the third starter named, but if he added more innings he can move up the list.

I don’t do honorable mentions, since the last names in a Top 10 basically amount to that. I do want to call attention to Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt though. Not because I’m trying a politician-type move of jamming more names into the Top 10 or because Goldschmidt is my #11. I don’t know where I’d rank him right now, but given how much the power-hitting first baseman picked up his game in the last couple months, how hot he’s capable of getting and the fact he can slug Arizona to an NL West title, Goldschmidt (.368/.552, 12 HRs) is the man to watch in either league if you’re looking for someone not in serious contention right now to pour it on and win an MVP by season’s end.