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NHL Western Conference playoffs

Chicago & Calgary Advance In The NHL Western Conference Playoffs

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The NHL Western Conference playoffs took on further clarity, as the Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames moved on to the second round, joining the Anaheim Ducks. Three of the four positions in the Division Finals are now taken and the fourth could be filled by early evening if the Minnesota Wild can beat the St. Louis Blues in Game 6 (3 PM ET, NBC). Here’s a look at how Chicago and Calgary won their respective first-round series:

CHICAGO BEATS NASHVILLE IN 6

It was one of the best matchups of the first round, with the high-powered weaponry of the Blackhawks going against a good Predators’ defense, anchored by goalie Pekka Rinne. Chicago decidedly won this battle–they controlled pace, with high shot volumes on both sides marking the first four games when the Blackhawks all but wrapped up the series by winning three of them.
To make matters worse for Nashville, they couldn’t hold leads. The tone for the entire series was set in Game 1 when the Preds coughed up a 3-0 lead. The media storyline of the series was the controversy over who Chicago’s goalie would be, Corey Crawford or Scott Darling. But the more important storyline was that the great Blackhawk offensive players beat Rinne.
It’s not easy–in fact, sometimes it seems impossible–for great offensive talent to trump defense in the NHL playoffs. It’s a testament to the sheer depth of Chicago’s firepower that they made it happen. It starts with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa and concludes with defenseman Duncan Keith, one of the best offensive players on the back end anywhere in the league.
Darling stepped in and saved Chicago in the first four games, bailing them out with a superb effort in Game 1–he held Nashville at bay and allowed his team to comeback, even though the Preds took 32 shots in just the third period and first overtime of a game that ultimately went into the third extra session. Darling then faced a combined 89 shots in Games 3 & 4 and only gave up four goals in the wins that all but clinched the series.
But the Chicago goalie situation would end where it began–after Darling collapsed in the third period of Game 5 and then gave up three goals in Game 6, Chicago went back to Crawford, who stopped all 13 shots and his team came back one more time.
The Blackhawks await the St. Louis-Minnesota winner in the Central Division Finals.

CALGARY BEATS VANCOUVER IN 6

It used to be Vancouver that we thought of first when it came to great offensive talent. And while the Sedin brothers, Daniel and Henrik, aren’t the stars they used to be, they’re still awfully good. They played aggressively each game and along with Alex Burrows consistently attacked the next. Calgary won because for five games, goaltender Jonas Hiller turned back the tide and then an offensive onslaught secured the win in Game 6.
Amidst the stars of Vancouver, the Flames also got key goals from their defenseman. Kris Russell scored with thirty seconds to win Game 1. T.J. Brodie had an assist and a goal in Game 3. In a series where the combined score of both teams after five games was 11-10 Calgary, these were critical.
Hiller played poorly in the first period of Game 6 and his team fell behind 3-0. He was pulled, but having carried the Flames for five games, it was time for his teammates to bail him out. Jiri Hudler put in two goals and two assists. Calgary led 5-4 by the third period and then tacked on two empty net goals to secure the series. This was the kind of game Vancouver needed to create and when they finally got it, they couldn’t get it done.
The Flames will play Anaheim in the Pacific Division Finals, the only second round matchup that’s locked in. Schedules have yet to be announced.

READ HOW ANAHEIM SWEPT WINNIPEG

OVER IN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE

The New York Rangers, winners of the President’s Trophy, have advanced to the Metropolitan Division Finals, with a 4-1 series in over the Pittsburgh Penguins. As the Rangers get company in the East’s second round, we’ll take a look at how they dispatched the Pens for the second straight year. Here’s how the other series look…
*Washington-NY Islanders–Tied 3-3 and headed for a decisive seventh game on Monday night in D.C. (7:30 PM ET, NBCSN). The winner plays the Rangers.
*Detroit-Tampa Bay–the Red Wings are up 3-2 and go to clinch at home on Monday (7 PM ET, CNBC)
*Montreal-Ottawa–the Canadiens are up 3-2 and can wrap it up tonight (6 PM ET, NBCSN). The Senators have already won two straight elimination games to stretch this series out.
All first-round series will be completed by the end of Wednesday night at the latest, and potentially by the end of Monday night.

NHL Playoffs 1st Round Preview: San Jose-St. Louis

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One year ago the San Jose Sharks made the Western Conference finals as the #2 seed. This year the Sharks are back in the 2-7 draw in the NHL’s playoff bracket, only in the underdog role. Sitting in the two-hole is the St. Louis Blues, off a great regular season and hoping to deliver their city it’s second professional sports championship in a period of eight months later in June. TheSportsNotebook previews the coming San Jose-St. Louis series…

On the surface, St. Louis has none of the markings of a vulnerable favorite. They excel on defense every which way. You want a great goaltender? Try Brian Elliiot. When he’s healthy, there’s none better, including those in more heralded big markets. For those times when he’s not healthy—which still include now, when the Game 1 starter is still up in the air—you can turn to Jaroslav Halak. While not as consistent as Elliot, Halak is still a good enough goalie to start on at least half the playoff teams. You want to make sure your goaltender isn’t overly exposed? Let’s introduce the defenseman who allow the fewest shots on goal of any team in hockey—that would be Alex Pietrangelo, Barrett Jackman and Kevin Shattenkirk who get the bulk of the credit. And you want a good 5-on-5 team, who doesn’t rely on an official’s whistle to keep them in good standing? St. Louis is second in the entire league in that category.  If the favorites who are vulnerable are those who are soft defensively—and in any sport, but especially the NHL playoffs they usually are—then St. Louis would be safe.

But there are some other factors to consider and the biggest is the quality of the opponent. San Jose is more consistent top-to-bottom than the Eastern Conference 7-seed Washington Capitals. The Sharks churn out shots on goal like it’s going out of style, trailing only Pittsburgh in the entire NHL when it comes to a blitzkrieg on the goalie. An offense that’s both talented and plays as a team is led by three solid centers, starting with Joe Thornton, going to Joe Pavelski and then Logan Coultre. Pavelski is the most complete offensive player, but Thornton is still a veteran with superb passing skills (59 assists), and Coultre is a 30-goal scorer in his own right. Along with winger Patrick Marleau, who would be the top offensive threat on a lot of playoff teams, San Jose has an offense that will keep the St. Louis defense on its toes.

The Blues are not a great offensive team, and have no real standouts anywhere on the ice. What they do have is balanced passing where the defenseman and the forwards are both involved in setting up shots. That St. Louis’ defenseman can be this involved in the attack and still get back to lock down on the other end it speaks volumes to how underappreciated they are.

I’m picking St. Louis to win, because offense trumps defense and the fact San Jose’s penalty kill unit is very poor suggests to me that the Blues can sneak off with some power play goals. But I expect a really good series. The Sharks defense is in the Top 10 themselves  and if they play clean and avoid putting themselves in spots where they’re a main down, their own skilled offensive talent can steal wins. I see a seven-game barnburner, or at the very least, a game where St. Louis has to win several gut-wrenchers in order to advance.

NHL Playoffs 1st Round Preview: Chicago-Phoenix

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The Phoenix Coyotes were the survivor of a wild four-team race in the Pacific Division and earned the #3 seed in the Western Conference. The Chicago Blackhawks are seeded 6th. Like their 6-seed counterpart in the East, the New Jersey Devils, Chicago enters this series with a better record than Phoenix and is in the favorite’s role. TheSportsNotebook previews the Chicago-Phoenix series…

If this series were about frontline talent between the nets then Chicago would sweep and win each game in a blowout. The Blackhawks are loaded with players who can move the puck and light the lamp. The team operates best when it moves leftward, the wing that runs out Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa, an assault team that ensures a top scorer is on every line. The defenseman, led by Brent Seabrook are good passers from the back end, and it adds up to an offense that ranks sixth in the league in goals. And it could get better—the team has been missing center Jonathan Toews to a concussion, but Toews is practicing and listed as a probable for Thursday’s series opener in the desert. The center is one of the best puck distributors in the league and an able scorer himself.

Phoenix is thin on offense by any measure, ranking 18th in goals scored. Ray Whitney and Shane Doan are respectable at the forward spots, while Radim Vrbata is the closest the Coyotes have to a genuine offensive threat. But when put side-by-side against Chicago’s star power, Phoenix’s light goes dim quickly.

But playoff hockey isn’t always about the players between the nets, it’s about the ones in the net and Phoenix has an edge here every bit as big as Chicago’s among the starting five. Mike Smith’s 93 percent save rate is tied with New York’s Henrik Lundqvist. And that’s in spite of a woeful defense in Phoenix that has left Smith ruthlessly exposed. Only two defenses in the league allow their goalies to be hammered with more shots, and Smith just keeps turning them back. That a team that poor in overall defense can be 5th in the NHL in goals allowed speaks volumes to how good Smith is, and it will be a crime if he doesn’t win the Hart Trophy, given to the league MVP.

Chicago is almost the complete opposite. Whether you spell goalie “Corey Crawford” or “Ray Emery”, the results haven’t been appealing to Blackhawks fans. Chicago’s team defense—led by Seabrook, trade deadline acquisition Johnny Oduya and Duncan Keith, is a good group and ranks in the top third of the league in shots allowed. But the team is in the bottom third in goals allowed. Any guess where we might put the blame?

Phoenix has a couple other edges going for them besides the goaltending. They actually play better in the 5-on-5 than does Chicago. That’s no small edge given that the Blackhawks are lousy on the power play, whether it’s cashing in their own or killing someone else’s. Phoenix, thanks to Smith, is at least sound on the penalty kill.

The Coyotes are a one-man team. I don’t deny that for an instant. They are not better than Chicago for the long haul because of it, I don’t deny that either and the just-completed 82-game body of work backs it up. But in the NHL playoffs, an advantage this sizeable in the net is too much to pass up. I think Smith puts Phoenix on his back and carries them to the second round.

NHL Playoffs 1st Round Preview: Detroit-Nashville

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The Detroit Red Wings and Nashville Predators have been on a collision course for the 4-5 spot in the NHL’s Western Conference playoff bracket for several weeks now, and the matchup has now officially materialized. To the casual fan, it looks like one of the game’s great franchises against an unknown who’s never made a splash. But between the boards, it’s a dead-even matchup and Nashville is the team that angled out home-ice advantage by winning 12 of its last 20, while Detroit only won seven in that same timeframe. TheSportsNotebook previews the Red Wings-Predators first-round battle…

It’s all about goaltending as two goalies that are capable of leading their team to a Stanley Cup are in net. Detroit’s Jimmy Howard has a 92 percent save rate, the equal of Boston’s Tim Thomas and right on the heels of New York’s Henrik Lundqvist. Howard missed time during that last 20-game sequence, a big reason the Red Wings struggled like they did. Nashville has Pekka Rinne, whose save rate is a nudge higher than Howard’s. It’s certainly possible that either goaltender could rise to the occasion with such an extraordinary performance that they carry their team through. More than likely that’s something the winner of this series will get a chance to do down the line. For this particular series, the excellence of Howard and Rinne likely cancels each other out and we have to look elsewhere for edges.

Both teams have well-regarded defenseman in front of the net. Nashville’s duo of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter is respected as one of the best in the league, while Detroit has defensive depth, led by the ageless Nicklas Lidstrom, who seems to be rivaled only by New Jersey goalie Martin Brodeur in the “He’s Still Around” category. But while the personnel is well-regarded, the numbers tell us that Detroit’s group is much better at the job of taking care of the goalie. The Red Wings are a top five team in shot prevention, while the Predators are in the league’s bottom third. Nashville is not as deep, and it’s imperative that Detroit cash in when the second and third lines are on the ice.

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The Red Wings have the offensive talent to make that happen. There’s no budding star here, no one like a Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos or Ovechkin, who can electrify a crowd. But there’s a whole lot of players who know how to move the puck and play team offense, and none are better than Pavel Datsyuk. He’s on the front line and if he can win some battles against Weber and Suter, create some extra shots and fight out even one extra goal, that can be the difference in a series where scoring will be at a premium. Henrik Zetterberg and Valterri Filppula can also find the open man, and Johan Franzen is a decent scorer.

On the Nashville side, there’s not the same kind of offensive depth. Like Detroit, the Predators lack a 30-goal scorer, and their best is Patric Hornqvist, who had 27. David Legwood is a nice passer, but overall this is a strange offensive team. They are very poor at getting shots, but rank a solid 8th in goals scored. Normally statistical disparities like that reflect one great scorer who covers team inadequacies (Washington and Alex Ovechkin being an example). There’s nothing like that here, and frankly I’m at a loss for how to explain it, given that I refuse to believe that an 82-game body of work can be reduced to coincidence.

How this series will be officiated is going to be of enormous consequence. Nashville excels at both ends of the power play—they are the best in the league at cashing their chances in, and in the league’s upper crust at denying opponents the same. Detroit is mediocre in both areas, and with ranks of 22nd and 18th respectively, we’re probably being nice when say mediocre. The flip side to this is that the Red Wings are the NHL’s best in 5-on-5 play, while Nashville is 10th.

Shop for official 2011 Nashville Predators Team Gear at Fanatics
I like Detroit to win this series. I believe the injury to Howard, among others in a tough last stretch of the season, are the only reason they aren’t the 4-seed to begin with and I think we’re going to see a return of the team that set the NHL record for consecutive home wins back in February. Every game will be a dogfight, and a closely officiated series with a lot of power plays can tip it the other way, but to me Detroit is the percentage pick here.

NHL Playoffs 1st Round Preview: LA Kings-Vancouver

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The Vancouver Canucks came within one game of winning the Stanley Cup last season. Just as they did in 2011, the Canucks have posted the best overall record in the NHL, been honored with the President’s Trophy and will have home-ice advantage throughout the postseason. Will that translate into a Stanley Cup or will this be another year of angry riots replete with a couple making out in the midst of the chaos? The opponent in the first round will be the 8th-seeded Los Angeles Kings. TheSportsNotebook previews the series…

Vancouver brings a tremendous package of offensive talent to the ice that Los Angeles simply can’t match. Henrik Sedin is the game’s best passer at center, and it’s starting look like his brother Daniel, coming off a concussion, will be healthy and ready to play for this series—or least ready to play. The latter Sedin is one of the league’s best finishers, leading to the inescapable conclusion that when they were kids Henrik was always feeding Daniel when they went out to skate. The Canucks get decent supporting work from Alex Burrows and the defenseman are skilled passers. Collectively this adds up to a team that makes you feel like you’re watching a work of art as they move the puck up and down the ice.

But the NHL playoffs are not about artistry, they are about toughness. Vancouver learned that at Boston’s hands last year, and they also learned it from Chicago. The Blackhawks nearly upended the favorites in the opening round, rallying from a 3-0 deficit in games to force a Game 7 before Vancouver avoided complete humiliation. A common theme from that series, and the Cup Finals, is that the Canucks have learned what it takes to compete in the postseason. In that light, the 2012 Canucks fall in line with teams like the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, who had to lose a championship before they could win one. But what if Vancouver is the West’s Washington? The team who’s too soft to win, but if they bulk up, they lose the very identity that made them a favorite to begin with? If that’s the case, can Los Angeles pull the upset?

The Kings have an outstanding goaltender in Jonathan Quick, who ranks right up there with Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas and other more heralded netminders. Los Angeles plays good lockdown team defense, with Willie Mitchell, Slava Voynova and Drew Doughty being the best of a group that ranks #5 in the NHL at shot prevention. Combined with Quick’s excellence, they make the Kings the second-best in the game in scoring defense.

Los Angeles lacks a proven goal-scorer, but Anze Kopitar at center is adept at finding anyone who is in position to shoot, having delivered 51 assists this year. And Los Angeles will have their chances. The Vancouver defense exposes it’s goaltenders a lot, ranking in the league’s bottom third at shot prevention. Goalie Robert Luongo can be truly outstanding at times, and at others—like the last five games of last year’s Finals, he can be completely maddening. If that happens, Vancouver has a reliable backup in Cory Schneider, who has a 93% save rate, superior to Quick, Thomas or Lundqvist. Granted, that’s without as much playing time, but Schneider still played often enough that we can’t dismiss the number the way we might a .725 batting average at this point in the baseball season. Nor can we dismiss the possibility that Vancouver will turn to him quickly.

I like the Kings as a live dog in this series. When you can play defense and have a dominant goaltender, you can win any hockey game, and that’s the kind of formula that can frustrate a favorite. I can see a possibility where Los Angeles does that, but still gets swept in a series of 1-0, 2-1 games capped off by a 3-2 loss in double overtime. But I can also see the Canucks letting frustration getting the best of them, and Los Angeles pulling a seven-game shocker. It wouldn’t be the NHL playoffs without something breathtaking going down and a Kings upset is my pick this year.

The Detroit Red Wings’ Stanley Cup Chances

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The Detroit Red Wings are the toast of the NHL with their league record 23-game win streak*. They’ve opened up a cushion in the tough Central Division, holding a five-point lead on St. Louis, while Nashville and Chicago have slipped back into the pack. The Wings are plus-2 points on Vancouver for the top seed in the conference. Will this win streak be just a nice little footnote on the season, or is it the sign that this proud franchise is going to successfully navigate the snakepit that the NHL playoffs often are for favorites? TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the team overall and then at what we can learn from their most important games over the past two months.

Detroit is a very balanced team. They play well on both ends of the ice, ranking fifth in both goals scored and goals allowed. Their ranking here correlates fairly close to where they are shots taken and allowed, so there’s nothing fluky happening here. The Wings are superb in the straight 5-on-5 play, where they are the league’s best. The power play is iffy, ranking in the middle of the pack and the biggest concern is their ability to kill penalties, where they are subpar.

Goaltending is a team strength, with Jimmy Howard doing a solid job, and when he missed the past five games with a broken finger, Joey McDonald can step right in without missing a beat. The goalies are protected by a solid core of defenseman led by 41-year-old Nicklas Lidstrom, along with Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericcson, and Ian White, enabling them to go two lines deep with quality. On the frontline, this is a team that has no clear scorer, but has a lot of players piling up assists, suggesting a team that moves the puck extraordinarily well. It starts at center with Henrik Zetterberg and Valtteril Filppula, and Pavel Datsyuk is a skilled talent on the right wing. Johan Frazen and Danny Cleary are consistent contributors. The latter is out right now, but will be back in plenty of time for the playoffs.

To break down how the Red Wings fare in individual games, what I’ve done is go through their schedule since Christmas and pick out games against playoff-caliber opponents. These are almost exclusively teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today and the only exception is one game against Calgary that I included because it might be a 1-8 matchup in the first round. There are 14 such games and Detroit is 11-3. The losses indicate I obviously included road games, as I didn’t want to get an excessively rosy picture by focusing just on the win streak.

The first thing that stands out is the extraordinary teamwork the Wings rely on. Perhaps the most astonishing stat was that in none of the 14 games did they have a player score two goals in a game.  A lot of goals they did get had two assists, the reason it’s possible for them to have a number of players with good season assists numbers, but no one really standing out as a scorer. They do a great job in getting more shots than their opponent—often by substantial numbers, thereby putting the percentages of luck on their side.

Let’s start on December 27 when they beat St. Louis 3-2 and then did it again four nights later 3-0. The penalty kill was a problem here as both Blues’ goals came with the man advantage. If we jump ahead to games against Phoenix and Chicago on January 12th and 14th, we see them scraping out one-goal wins, one of them in overtime. But we also see huge disparities in getting shots, with Detroit winning that battle by a combined 85-54. In all likelihood, it’s not the narrow wins that were a fluke, but that the game was close to begin with.

Five days later in Phoenix, Detroit escaped with a shootout win, a burden made necessary by the fact they went 0-for-5 on their power play chances. This facet of their game improved greatly when they played St. Louis again, as they scored twice with a man advantage and beat the Blues 3-1. A tough visit to Vancouver was survived in a 4-3 shootout win thanks to a 43-25 shot advantage. But it’s concerning that the Canucks scored three goals on just 25 shots and got two in the third period to tie the game. The Wings survived a home game with Philly when they tied it with less than two minutes left and won early in overtime. Scoring twice on the power play bailed them out and kept the home win streak alive. They won again late against Nashville last Friday when Datsyuk broke a 1-1 tie with five seconds left. It’s worth nothing that two players got assists on this play, showing a lot of composure in getting a good shot in the waning seconds.

Detroit kept San Jose at bay in a game a lot of the country saw on NBC this past Sunday, winning 3-2, but giving up 33 shots. The losses in this timeframe were, naturally, all on the road. They lost 3-2 at Chicago, a game where they played on the defensive thanks to five penalties, but killing the Blackhawk power play kept it a game. They came out flat on January 7 in Toronto and surrendered three first period goals. The Wings clawed their way back, getting 40 shots to the Leafs’ 18, but the hole was too deep. And on February 6 they lost in Phoenix thanks to poor work on the power play, both their own—where they gave up a shorthanded goal—and on the Coyotes’, who scored with the man advantage and won 3-1.

I’ve worked all season long on the assumption that Detroit was getting elite-level goaltending from Howard, but this review leads me to conclude otherwise. It’s the defensemen that deserve the bulk of the credit for this team’s ability to prevent goals. What this means for the playoffs, is that Detroit can’t put Howard or McDonald in situations where they have to come up with a hero’s effort. This is often something that’s necessary for a team to make a Stanley Cup run. While it’s not as thought the goalies here are bad, we can’t say Howard is more likely to get hot than say, Pekka Rine in Nashville, Roberto Luongo in Vancouver and certainly Brian Elliot in St. Louis.

Similarly, the Wings need their entire offensive unit working in tandem, as they don’t have one player who can bail them out. If this were the NBA I’d worry more, but in hockey I like the fact that they rely on everyone and they excel at getting a lot of shots.

If the Stanley Cup is decided by one player putting a team on its back, it won’t be Detroit. But if you’re looking for a solid, consistent hockey team that can go through four rounds and can at least put the percentages of fate in their favor, the Red Wings are a solid bet. I like them to hold off Vancouver for home-ice advantage and Detroit deserves to be the favorite to win it all.

*With the home winning streak, note that the NHL’s use of the shootout is a new phenomena and having this kind of streak was virtually impossible prior to 2006. It’s not that Detroit’s accomplishment isn’t great, but history would be better served if this eras were considered distinct, and the Wings simply noted as the best of the post-shootout era.