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NFL Week 5 TV games

NFL Analysis: Week 5’s National TV Games

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Denver-Dallas is the big Week 5 game in the late Sunday afternoon slot, and Houston-San Francisco is a pretty good game on Sunday night. The Jets-Falcons on Monday meets the qualifications for dud, and I’m almost embarrassed to say I’m intrigued by Thursday night’s Buffalo-Cleveland game. Let’s take a look at the four Week 5 games that will be seen by all or most of the country.

TheSportsNotebook lists the moneyline next to each team, the price paid on betting for an outright win in $100 increments. I’m picking each game this year on the moneyline. So far I’ve had winning weeks three times out of four, including last week’s (+360) showing. But the bad week in Week 3 was of a wipeout variety and my season-long number is still (-600). Let’s keep the long road back going this week.


Buffalo (+170) Cleveland (-200) (Thursday, 8:25 PM ET, NFL): I know I should be ready to cite this matchup is a key piece of evidence in the case to dismiss the season-long Thursday night games on the NFL Network, a case in which I’ve filed an amicus curiae brief on behalf of the prosecution.

It would be an easy thing to say that unless Jim Kelly and Bernie Kosar are getting under center, with Marv Levy and Marty Schottenheimer on the sidelines, that I’m not interesting in watching a Cleveland-Buffalo game. But these teams are both showing signs of life, especially the Bills and the winner of this game will be worth a second look.

Both teams are 2-2, with the Bills having a win over the Ravens and the Browns knocking off the Bengals.
The key issue in this game will be Buffalo’s rush attack. With C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson coming off big games against Baltimore and both looking likely to play with their ankle and knee injuries, the Bills have the running attack that Cleveland does not. The flip side is that the Browns have a defensive playmaker, with Desmond Bryant already having 3 1/2 sacks coming off the edge.

The game is in Cleveland, so we have to see an unproven Buffalo team show it can handle the prosperity of beating last year’s Super Bowl champions, move beyond it quickly and win on the road on a short week. That’s a tall order and I won’t say I’m not leery. But I think the Bills are genuinely becoming respectable, while I’m not there yet with the Browns, and I get a nice (+170) price for picking Buffalo.


Denver (-425) Dallas (+335) (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, CBS): Denver has to endure the media pressure of being anointed as the next champions because of how well they’ve played in a 4-0 start. They won’t go undefeated, but at least Peyton Manning has gone 16-0–as in touchdown passes to interceptions in the season’s first quarter, and he’s completing 75 percent of his passes.

Tony Romo isn’t exactly stinking out the joint though. The Cowboy quarterback is completing 72% of his throws and has an 8-1 TD/INT ratio. And if we flip the equation over to pass defense and look at which team is pressuring the quarterback better, the answer to that is Dallas. They’re getting heat across the board in their 4-3 scheme, starting with Demarcus Ware, but including George Selvie on the opposite end and Jason Hatcher up the middle. Denver has only Robert Ayers generating sacks.

I don’t really like to pick against Denver, because Manning is so good and you never what might happen with Romo, especially if Miles Austin doesn’t play again this week. But I feel like this steep moneyline virtually dictates a Dallas selection. I think this game is going to be very close, I think the Cowboys are going to be ready to play. Dallas is still in first place in the NFC East at 2-2, meaning that this is an October game with not a lot of pressure riding on it—meaning it’s the kind of game Tony Romo was born to play well in. I’ll damn with faint praise and pick the ‘Boys.

Houston (+220) San Francisco (-260) (Sunday, 8:30 PM ET, NBC): The 49ers, along with the Broncos, are America’s two teams–each has been in one of these four marquee TV slots for all four of their games. San Francisco is the one struggling to live up to the hype at 2-2, but they got themselves back on track with last Thursday’s win over the Rams thanks to the running of Frank Gore. Now Frisco has some restored confidence, some extra prep time and their physical identity back.

What they’re going to need in this game is more Colin Kaepernick. The young quarterback played poor games in the blowout losses to Seattle and Indianapolis and was mostly a game-manager last week. Now he’s facing a Houston defense that is at its best when they can get a lot of pressure on the passer.

From J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith up front, to Whitney Mercilus at linebacker, the Texans have their best chance of success by disrupting the San Francisco blocking scheme by attacking. Kaepernick can not only foil those plans with his mobility, he can make them completely blow up in Houston’s face.

I’m ready to write off the Texans after the way they blew last week’s game to Seattle, in spite of having a 20-3 lead and running the ball very well with Arian Foster. Matt Schaub has too long a track record of significant mistakes in big games, even big regular season games like this one is. Even allowing the attractive price on the underdog, I just can’t see San Francisco losing this game at home and will play the favorite.


NY Jets (+420) Atlanta (-550) (Mon, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN): Atlanta is the second-biggest moneyline on the favorite on the board this week, and the highest of all teams not playing Jacksonville, which is the real competition in this category (St. Louis is -600 against the Jags). Thus, the two biggest favorites are each 1-3, which tells you something about how the betting markets view the Jets, along with the hapless Jags.

Even though Atlanta is 1-3, remember that two of their losses were close and on the road, and against New Orleans and Miami, while the home loss was to New England. All of these games came down to the bitter end. Atlanta might be desperate for some wins, but they’re getting the most difficult portion of the schedule behind them and Stephen Jackson shouldn’t be long in returning to help the running game.

If there’s a case for the Jets to win on the road it would be this–they’re playing genuinely good defense. Even in last week’s 38-13 loss to Tennessee, it was more about turnovers causing the point deluge. Atlanta does not do a good job protecting Matt Ryan, so there’s hope for some big plays on defense. Nor do the Falcons rush the passer well, so Geno Smith might be able to relax a little more and get comfortable playing indoors.

This is why I hate moneylines like this one. If I pick Atlanta and lose, my entire week is shot, and the scenario for the Jets is not unreasonable. But if you ask me honestly, I see almost no chance of them actually winning. Playing well, sure. Going down to the wire, why not. But if Atlanta loses this game at home their season is over. And I don’t see that happening. For the second straight week, the NFC South beats the AFC East in Monday Night Football and as a hefty moneyline favorite. And I’ll take my chances with that big number.

TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis also looks at the rest of the Week 5 undercard.

NFL Week 5: The National TV Games

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There are six games on the NFL Week 5 schedule that will be seen by all or most of the country, and after previewing the undercard games yesterday, TheSportsNotebook now turns its attention to the marquee items of the NFL lineup, starting with three games in the early 1 PM ET time slot and moving on to the Denver-New England late afternoon battle, to San Diego-New Orleans on Sunday night and finishing with Houston-NY Jets on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh: Can the Eagles finally get a win by more than one or two points? Can the Steelers take advantage of two weeks prep time coming off a bye and get back to .500? Neither Keystone State team looks all that impressive right now, but at least Philadelphia is winning and showing some balance on offense thanks to LeSean McCoy. Pittsburgh has become exclusively reliant on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger.

Philadelphia’s games basically swing on whether Michael Vick’s big plays make up for his turnovers, and Pittsburgh’s defense is built the same way. They’ll come after Vick and have their moments, but the Eagle receivers are better than the Steeler corners, and big play opportunities will be there. I like Philadelphia in this game, and getting 3.5 points against what I believe is very mediocre Pittsburgh team is a bargain.

Cleveland-NY Giants: It’s a CBS doubleheader week and their early time slot is mostly split between this game and the Packers-Colts matchup right below. New York’s still dealing with injuries—Hakeem Nicks is out, David Diehl is doubtful on the offensive line and the secondary isn’t healthy. Cleveland played a credible game in Baltimore last Thursday and has the extra rest coming into this week.

All of those are reasons the Browns might make it competitive, but until they get suspended cornerback Joe Haden back, I don’t see how they contain good passing offenses, which New York still is, even without Nicks.

Green Bay-Indianapolis: Andrew Luck is going to have a lot of problems in this game. The Packers can bring the heat with Clay Matthews, and I don’t see any reason think the Indianapolis running game can keep them honest. And in spite of allowing big numbers to Drew Brees last week, the Green Bay pass defense still ranks 6th in the NFL.

On the defensive side Robert Mathis is handling the adjustment from defensive end to stand-up outside linebacker and has four sacks. But Dwight Freeney hasn’t played in three weeks and Indy needs all hands on deck to attack Aaron Rodgers. In the end, Green Bay controls the game defensively, and manages it offensively.

Denver-New England:  The eyes of the country turn to Foxboro, as Peyton Manning renews his rivalry with Tom Brady. But the difference between these two teams right now is that New England has suddenly found a devastating ground game, with Stevan Ridley and last week’s unveiling of Brandon Bolden.

The Denver defense has done nothing to suggest they could stop Brady in a normal Patriot offense, much less one that can also run it down your throat. New England is a solid 6.5 point favorite and I think that’s justified.

San Diego-New Orleans: The Chargers might be 3-1, but Las Vegas clearly doesn’t believe in them. They’re a 3.5 point underdog at New Orleans. That the Bolts are a road dog isn’t surprising, but I am taken aback by the fact the line crossed the three-point threshold, an indicator that bettors actually think New Orleans is a little bit better on a neutral site. I know San Diego’s wins are just Tennessee, Oakland and Kansas City, but at least they have wins. New Orleans has none, including a home loss to those same Chiefs and to Carolina.

Now…having giving that whole spiel, I’m still picking New Orleans because I think they’re due and that Sean Payton’s permitted presence at the game will be an inspirational factor, even if he won’t be on the sidelines. But I’d never lay more than a field goal.

Houston-NY Jets: Think we might see a few camera shots of Tim Tebow on the Jets sidelines for Monday Night? You’d like to think Rex Ryan’s team could be counted on to come up with a big-time effort in a situation where everyone’s lost belief in them and they’re at home for a national audience.

But is there any reason that a defense that ranks 29th against the run can stop Arian Foster? Is there any reason to think a secondary without Darrelle Revis can contain the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson passing game? Is there any reason to think an offense missing tight end Dustin Keller can handle a defense that attacks you and forces the quarterback to throw underneath? I know anything can happen in the NFL, as the accurate cliché goes, but that’s about the only fig leaf Jets fans can grab on to here.