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NFL Week 2 schedule

The NFL Week 2 Undercard

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TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis previewed the four national games of Week 2, from Thursday night to late Sunday afternoon to the Sunday-Monday prime-time parlay. Now let’s wrap up our prep for the season’s second week with a rundown on the 12 undercard games. Each one is picked on the moneyline, with the odds for an outright win noted in parentheses…

Washington (+270)  Green Bay (-340): This partisan Redskins fan can’t think of a single objective reason to give a non-biased fan for  why a road upset should happen. Washington  has to be able to run the ball, and looked lousy doing so on Monday Night. Meanwhile, Green Bay stopped the run at physical San Francisco.


The Redskin secondary also left a lot to be desired, and now they’re staring into the face of Aaron Rodgers. Finally, RG3’s approach of throwing the ball exclusively off his back foot isn’t going to work. It might be time to go All In For Week 6 and get back in rehab. Sunday will tell a lot.

But I’m still holding out hope that the Redskin running game of 2012 can re-emerge, that Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan can pressure Rodgers from the edge and that RG3’s awkward throwing was more about mental adjustment than lack of physical readiness. It’s not enough to make me pick the ‘Skins, but reason enough not to sell my football soul and pick against them. I’ll just pass.

St. Louis (+230) Atlanta (-280): Atlanta’s pass protection had some problems against New Orleans last week, and the Rams have a front four that can bring some heat. And I liked the way Sam Bradford brought his team from behind in Week 1 against Arizona. But I think the Atlanta offense is good enough to still make this a wide-open affair, and asking Bradford to outgun Matt Ryan is too much to ask.

Cleveland (+250) Baltimore (-300): Where’s the respect for the Ravens? You’re telling me their bad showing at Denver in Week 1 makes them only a marginally bigger favorite over the Browns at home, than the Falcons are over the Rams? I’ll say this—if Baltimore can’t do a better job pressuring the passer and running the ball in this spot, it’s a sign of deeper problems. But I see a blowout win for the champs in their first home game.

Carolina (-145) Buffalo (+125): I know Buffalo played a nice game in nearly upsetting New England, but they didn’t run the ball at all, and Carolina’s defense shut down Marshawn Lynch and the potent Seattle rush game. It’s risky to take the Panthers on the road, but they did enough good things in Week 1 that I’ll  take them to win at Buffalo.

Minnesota (+225) Chicago (-270): What I’m most interested in for this game is whether the Viking defensive ends, Brian Robison and Jared Allen, can overwhelm Chicago’s pass protection. If the Bears handle the Vikes quality front one week after doing the same to the Bengals, I’ll be ready to buy into the theory that Chicago’s long-awful offensive front is making some strides.

In either case, you can’t pick the Vikings on the road. They’re home and road personalities are about as different as those of Fever Pitch character Ben Wrightman in winter and summer.


Tennessee (+360) Houston (-450): I’d really like to take a shot at an upset here, after the way Houston struggled at San Diego. But even if the Titans are for real, isn’t it asking too much for them to beat the Steelers and Texans on the road in succession? I think it is.

Miami (+125) Indianapolis (-145): Two teams that I think are overrated and neither was impressive in Week 1. The Colts barely escaped the Raiders at home, and the Fish won an ugly game in Cleveland. But Andrew Luck is establishing himself as a quarterback you want on your side in the closing minutes of a tight game. Ryan Tannehill has not. And the price on the favorite is pretty cheap.

Dallas (+140) Kansas City (-160): The Chiefs did a lot of good things in Week 1, even allowing that it was against Jacksonville. KC’s defense pressured the quarterback, something that will bear them in good stead against Dallas’ leaky offensive line. Kansas City can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and if they do both of those on Sunday they’re going to win. But I’m not at the point of being ready to pick this team as a favorite against a team that, for all its flaws, is still above average. I’ll take the Cowboys.

San Diego (+265) Philadelphia (-330): If Philadelphia can run the ball with LeSean McCoy like they did on Monday Night in Washington, they won’t lose at home to a San Diego team, where Philip Rivers seems to have to lost the ability to get the ball down the field. But the Chargers played well on Monday Night themselves before blowing a late lead to Houston. All things being equal, I’d take Philly, but the moneyline disparity is pretty big, and makes the Bolts worth a play.

Detroit (-135) Arizona (+115): Both teams are seen as turnaround candidates for 2013, but while Detroit’s offense played well in a home win over Minnesota, nothing happened to justify making them a road favorite. I also like the Cardinals’ play in a tough home loss to St. Louis and see the Arizona defense, keyed by Patrick Peterson in the secondary, forcing Matthew Stafford into some mistakes and getting a win.

New Orleans (-180) Tampa Bay (+155): The Buccaneers still can’t get any pressure on the quarterback and I’m going to take a wild guess that could prove problematic against Drew Brees. Tampa needs to get a good game from Doug Martin, something they did not get in Week 1 at the Jets, and the need to get some big plays from Josh Freeman. It’s a reasonable victory scenario, especially at home, but not enough to steer me off the Saints.

Jacksonville (+220) Oakland (-260): Jacksonville is still looking for their first offensive points of the season, but having Chad Henne under center rather than Blaine Gabbert will at least be a part. And Maurice-Jones Drew is a more reliable ballcarrier than Darren McFadden. Ultimately my pick of the Jags comes down to the fact that these are the two worst teams in football and at least picking Jax has some moneyline value to it.

NFL Analysis: The Four National Showcase Games Of Week 2

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The marquee games of NFL Week 2 are highlighted by three divisional showdowns that are each important in their own unique way, along with the next installment of the Manning Brothers Civil War. Let’s focus on each of the four big games that the entire country will see.

Besides each team is its wagering number of the moneyline, the odds for an outright win, which serve as the basis for TheSportsNotebook’s weekly forays into handicapping. I’m (+82) after the first week, a minor miracle which I’m certain will self-correct very quickly.


NY Jets (+450) at New England (-600) (Thursday, 8:25 PM ET, NFL Network): I’m not going to always include the Thursday night game as part of our weekly focus on the big national games, because as fans have learned, this time slot often gives us clunkers. But Week 2 isn’t one of those times, and the results of each team’s first game have given Jets-Patriots from Foxboro a little more intrigue.

The notion held by many—including me—that Tom Brady can make most any receiving corps look good is really being challenged. In addition to Rob Gronkowski being out, it also looks like Danny Amendola won’t play due to a groin injury. Shane Vereen, who keyed a good rushing attack in a narrow escape at Buffalo is also out.

Stevan Ridley, who had a good year in the backfield last season, but apparently fell into Bill Belichick’s doghouse this year, now has the chance to restore himself to the coach’s good graces. The receiving corps just has no real threats. It’s imperative that New York’s corners—Dee Milliner and Antonio Cromartie—be able to dominate and lock up their receivers man-on-man.

If that happens, Rex Ryan can feel more confident in bringing the house after Brady and trying to force some big plays, be they sacks or interceptions. Or, if nothing else, just to prevent the Patriot quarterback from getting into a comfortable rhythm. Then it’s up to the Jets offense to try and establish some kind of running game, keep the game close and then see if Geno Smith can make an improvisational play in the fourth quarter that turns the tide.

We know that at some point, the Brady-Belichick era is finally going to crash. It’s a reasonable guess that it will take place while both are still active. And while I don’t forecast it being this year, it can’t be ruled out, particularly as the help at the skill positions keeps hitting the injury list. It’s that sense of caution that leads me to at least think this game is going to be worth watching. But in the end, even at that hefty (-600) I’m still picking the Patriots on their homefield.

Denver (-210) at NY Giants (+190) (4:25 PM ET, CBS): It’s the first doubleheader weekend for the Jim Nantz-Phil Simms broadcast team, and they’ll get Peyton and Eli going to head-to-head. But what’s likely to decide this game is if either team can generate a rushing game.

The Broncos didn’t get a running game in Week 1’s win over Baltimore and with Peyton tossing seven TD passes, didn’t really need one. New York could have used a rushing attack, but David Wilson played poorly in a loss to Dallas. I see no reason to expect any better from Denver, but with the Giants’ offensive line still mostly a veteran, intact group, you have to think they can eventually find someone who can hit a hole. Whether “eventually” means late Sunday afternoon is obviously another question entirely.

Eli Manning threw for 450 yards on Sunday night in Dallas, but he also tossed three interceptions, including a hideous one on the first play from scrimmage. His inconsistency is such that you can’t assume he’ll automatically be sharp on Sunday, but Eli does have that track record of getting up for a big game. I expect him to play well, because, if nothing else, he won’t be under a lot of duress. Denver will not likely get much of a pass rush.

It’s that issue—Denver’s defense—that leads me to take the Giants, the second straight week I’m grabbing Big Blue as an underdog. If they lose a second straight at home, in a situation that requires at least modest insurgency, they’ve got problems.


San Francisco (+125) at Seattle (-140) (8:30 PM ET, NBC): A lot of teams in the NFL didn’t run the ball well in Week 1, but none were more disappointing than the failures of Frank Gore for the Niners and the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch to get anything going on the ground. These are teams that need to control the line of scrimmage if they’re going to be the Super Bowl contenders everyone anticipates.

Without the running of Gore and Lynch, both offenses become susceptible to a defense that can be more comfortable in turning it’s pass-rushers loose. I think this is a bigger problem for Seattle. While Russell Wilson is mobile, he’s not nearly as explosive a run threat as Colin Kaepernick. Nor does Wilson have the kind of bail-out target that Kaepernick does with Anquan Boldin.

On the flip side, the Seahawks do get defensive end Cliff Avril back this week, so their chances for some pressure will be better. But in the end, if this game comes down to a battle of quarterbacks dropping back, look for San Francisco to win it. Seattle needs Lynch to control the pace of the game.

The presence of Boldin also highlights the advantage at the receiver position San Francisco enjoys. While the Niners lack a downfield threat, Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis at least give Kaepernick two good options. Wilson does not have that, with the ballyhooed acquisition of speedy Percy Harvin predictably ending with Harvin getting hurt.

Seattle’s homefield advantage is substantial and this is a good, playoff-quality team. This is a spot, though, where I’m going to let the moneyline make my pick. I don’t think Seattle merits (-140) confidence, so I’ll take a flyer on the road underdog, especially when that dog made the Super Bowl in 2012.


Pittsburgh (+270) at Cincinnati (-310) (Mon, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN): The Bengals were a disappointment in their 24-21 loss at Chicago. Pittsburgh was an absolute disaster in their 16-9 home loss to Tennessee. The focus is going to understandably be on the Steeler offense, but I think we have to start with their issues forcing turnovers.

The famed Pittsburgh defense doesn’t make big plays anymore, and they have to here. The big weakness the Bengals have is Andy Dalton’s ability to turn it over at a moment’s notice. Something’s gotta give here, and if Pittsburgh can’t get a couple interceptions on Monday night, where exactly are they going to?

This is not to minimize Steeler offensive woes. They need to find a running game, something that the season-ending injury to center Maurkice Pouncey made even tougher. But if the Bengals’ talented and aggressive front seven doesn’t respect the run, they’ll be teeing off on Ben Roethlisberger with no fear.  Roethlisberger is physically strong enough to limit the damage, but he no longer has a downfield threat to make anything really big happen outside the pocket.

On the Cincinnati side, we have to see if A.J. Green can get deep against the Steeler secondary. The Bengal receiver is always productive, but if this game ends up tight and low-scoring, akin to last year’s 13-10 win by Cincy in Week 16 that settled a playoff berth, a couple strikes down the field to Green could be the difference.

I have no reason on paper to feel confident in Pittsburgh, but I do believe Mike Tomlin is a head coach that competes, and he’s going to have his team emotionally ready to play this game. Normally that wouldn’t be enough, but the track record of Cincinnati over the years is one who lets rivals up off the mat. And the moneyline is very heavy on what promises to be a game that will be interesting, if not necessarily “good.” I’ll take the Steelers.

TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis also reviews the dozen games of the Week 2 undercard. 

The NFL Week 2 Undercard

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The Green Bay Packers run the risk of falling to 0-2 as they take the field Thursday night in Lambeau Field against the Chicago Bears. That, in of itself, is manageable, but if both losses are at home it digs you a good-sized hole and even in a best-case scenario would confine the Packers to imitating their baseball brethren in Milwaukee, who are spending the end of the season trying to frantically dig out of an early hole.

Tonight is also our first chance to really learn something about how good the Chicago Bears might be this season. Yes, they played well against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. They protected Jay Cutler and got the ball downfield to Brandon Marshall, the two big question marks that surround this team. The operative word in all this is “Indianapolis Colts”, who have only three NFL-caliber players on defense and one of them, Dwight Freeney, left in the first half with an ankle injury. The Bears don’t have to win tonight to show they’re for real, but a good competitive game would speak as loudly in their favor as the Week 1 result did.

Las Vegas is surprisingly bullish on the Packers, in spite of their opening day clunker against San Francisco. Green Bay is the same 5-point favorite they were against the Niners. And with an Over/Under point total at 51, the betting markets are clearly signaling they expect a high-scoring affair, a circumstance that likely works in Green Bay’s favor—who’s more likely to make the killer mistake in a shootout, Cutler or Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, I think it would be Cutler too. I like Green Bay to win tonight, although I have mixed feelings about the five-point spread.

Let’s now move on with our regular Thursday routine here at TheSportsNotebook and look at nine games on Sunday’s NFL undercard, with undercard being defined as games that will be seen primarily in the local TV market and not beyond…

New Orleans-Carolina: A critical game in the NFC South, and I’m somewhat surprised this game is not getting greater coverage from Fox in its early window (Tampa-NY Giants & Minnesota-Indy are getting the exposure). The Panthers turned Cam Newton into a conventional quarterback last week, didn’t let him really move around and lost 16-10 in Tampa. Between that loss, and watching the New Orleans defense torched by RG3, the guess is the Panthers will put Newton on the move a little more. I don’t think the Saints’ problems of Week 1 were an aberration and expect Carolina to win this one.

Dallas-Seattle: The few caveats that have come out of Dallas’ impressive win over the New York Giants to start the year have pertained to Cowboy consistency. There’s no better place to demonstrate it than right here. The Seahawks have a raucous home crowd, and they’ll bring the pressure after Tony Romo. If Demarco Murray can make the defense pay with his cutback ability between the tackles, Dallas will move the ball and it’s going to be tough for Seattle rookie Russell Wilson to keep up, especially with his own receivers nursing injuries. I’d look for a good one here and think the oddsmakers’ line of the Cowboys as a three-point favorite looks about right.

Arizona-New England: There’s no reason to expect New England to lose as a 14-point home favorite, but if the Cardinals’ ballhawking secondary can make some plays on the ball, the visitors could keep this one competitive. Given who the opposing quarterback is that’s admittedly wishful thinking, but it’s the only thread Arizona has to grab onto. If the Patriots again get a running game from Stevan Ridley and stop the defense from locking in on Brady, this one will turn ugly.

Houston-Jacksonville: This is a good test game for Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert. He played well in Week 1 and the loss at Minnesota can’t be pinned on him, but the Viking secondary is not very good. Now he’ll be facing some dialed up pressure from an array of angles. If Jax has a chance to pull the upset it will be because Gabbert was able to hook up with Justin Blackmon on some short-to-medium routes that Blackmon turns into big plays. The rookie receiver did not fare well against the Vikes, so you have to be doubtful of his ability to do it here. The Jaguars can run the ball with Maurice-Jones Drew and keep it respectable, but a win is going to depend on some big plays from the kid they drafted to produce them.

Washington-St. Louis: The media machine is about RG3 right now, but if the Redskins are going to get a road win against a Ram team that nearly upended Detroit, it’s going to be the defense that steps up. St. Louis is banged up across the offensive line, including the loss of center Scott Wells. The pass protection as a problem anyway, and now it’s imperative that linebackers like Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan tee off, both getting sacks and forcing Sam Bradford into bad throws. If the Washington secondary covers as well as they did last week, the ‘Skins can settle into running the ball and keep some heat off their rookie quarterback. I’m a Redskins fan and as you can see, wrote this from their perspective. But I also believe that’s what the game boils down to—if Washington gets the heat on Bradford, they’ll win. If they want RG3 to be Superman every week, they’ve got problems.

Tennessee-San Diego: Both of these playoff hopefuls looked lousy in Week 1, but the Chargers had an even worse foil in the Raiders, while the Titans were hammered by the Patriots. One thing Tennessee did not do at all was run the ball effectively, while San Diego was solid in stopping the same. Getting a road win is going to be tough enough for the Titans, even with Kenny Britt back at receiver, but if the combination of Chris Johnson and that good offensive line doesn’t get settled in, it’s going to be a long year in Nashville. The guess here is that Sunday they at least run it well enough to cover the six-point spread, but in the end Philip Rivers produces enough points for the San Diego win.

Cleveland-Cincinnati: The Browns are without corner Joe Haden, suspended for four games and the best player in the secondary that picked off Michael Vick four times last Sunday. I was extremely disappointed with the Bengals’ pass defense on Monday night in Baltimore—and since they gave up 44 points, I’m going to assume I’m not the only one. But Brandon Weeden is nowhere near ready to exploit that. Cincinnati will get pressure from its defensive front, manage the game and win. The only question is whether it will be impressive enough to wipe away the sting of the Blowout In Baltimore.

Kansas City-Buffalo: Both teams looked terrible in Week 1, but the Chiefs have more reasons to feel optimistic. They were without defensive stalwart Tamba Hali, as well as three other defensive starters, all of whom look ready to be on the field in Buffalo. And even if they weren’t, it was Matt Ryan and Atlanta who torched the Chiefs last week. The only similarity Ryan Fitzpatrick has to Ryan is his Irish surname. Fitzpatrick will face pressure and his track record of making mistakes is now pretty clear. Furthermore, the Bills’ defense was beyond atrocious against the Jets and Kansas City was playing a good offensive game against the Falcons, running the ball and getting good work from Matt Cassell, until Atlanta opened it up and put too much pressure on them. That won’t happen here and Kansas City controls the game throughout, winning decisively as a three-point underdog.

Oakland-Miami: These once-proud franchises play the worst game of Week 1, a circumstance that no doubt has Don Shula and John Madden each turning in their grave (or would if either was dead). Both teams can play physical football with their defensive fronts, but neither offense can get the ball to its receivers. Each is dependent on a running back—Darren McFadden for Oakland, Reggie Bush for Miami—for its big offensive plays. Do you take the home team or the one with the veteran quarterback? I’ll take the Raiders and Carson Palmer over the rookie Ryan Tannehill.