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NFL Week 17

NFL Week 17 Recap: Rodgers Rips Out Chicago’s Heart

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NFL Week 17 promised excitement going in, with 13 of the 16 games having playoff or seeding implications, and two de facto playoff games for division titles. Sunday didn’t disappoint, with an incredibly exciting finish to the 2013 regular season and fittingly, the two games with the highest stakes were the best.

Green Bay 33 Chicago 28: This one is going to take a long time for Bears fans to get over, and when the day comes that Aaron Rodgers gets inducted to the Hall of Fame, the decisive play will be at the top of the list of the highlights shown.


The Packers’ game-winning drive had three fourth-down conversions, the last of which is Rodgers connecting with Randall Cobb on 4th-and-8 from the Chicago 48-yard line, with the quarterback under pressure from Julius Pepper, falling away from the play and throwing off his back foot.

Rodgers’ heroics shouldn’t obscure how well Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler played, going 15/24 for 266 yards, including a perfectly thrown ball on 3rd-and-17 with his team ahead 28-27 that Alshon Jeffrey should have caught. If Jeffrey makes that play, the storyline is different. But such is life, and the reality is that for as well as Cutler played, he’s not Rodgers and being in the same division is always going to haunt the Chicago quarterback. Sunday underscored that yet again.

The other thing that shouldn’t be obscured is that the excitement from this game was a byproduct of the mediocrity of both teams. Coverage in the secondary was questionable on both sides and each team made silly mistakes. It’s fitting that the other play people are talking the most about is one where Rodgers’ fumbled, while bringing his arm back and the ball went forward, resulting in a fluky touchdown for Green Bay.

Every player—on both sides—stood still staring at the football until the Packers, only because the play was near their sideline and they could hear their coaches screaming that it was live, picked it up and walked into the end zone. If Rodgers’ decisive pass can be part of his legacy, the stupid non-fumble play and 22 players staring at a live ball will be the legacy of the 2013 NFC North Division race


Philadelphia 24 Dallas 22: I’ve often felt throughout my life as a sports fan that we overrate the role of the quarterback. So think about this—if you had been tuned out on news all week, and I told you that the Dallas Cowboys lost a huge game for the NFC East because even though their quarterback put up flashy numbers, they didn’t execute at key points and finally had a killer interception when there was a chance to win, you would surely have assumed that Tony Romo had done it again.

Of course you do know that Romo was out with a back injury, but this game was simply Kyle Orton dropped in and the same old Cowboys  showing up. They recovered a fumble in the red zone while trailing 17-13 in the third quarter and promptly went three-and-out, settling for a field goal. They failed to convert a two-point conversion that would have tied the game with three minutes left. Finally, Orton threw an interception when Dallas got the ball back with inside two minutes to play and plenty of time to get a field goal.

Dallas’ defense came up with some big stops, and that’s surely the first time anyone has written that sentence all year. The Cowboys had a goal-line stand in the third quarter and forced Philly into a three-and-out that set up the last, futile offensive drive.

Philadelphia won the turnover battle 3-1, and it’s because the Eagles can run the ball and get yardage in low-risk ways. LeSean McCoy carried 27 times for 131 yards and won the rushing title, as he carried his team to an NFC East title.

Other key NFC games…

Carolina 21 Atlanta 20: Carolina didn’t play well, but they survived and clinched the NFC South and #2 seed in the playoffs. The critical play was a pick-6 thrown by Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan from his own end zone with Atlanta ahead 10-0 in the first half.

Seattle 27 St. Louis 9: The Seahawks lock up the NFC West and #1 seed by getting back to their brand of football. They shut down the Ram running game and Zac Stacy. Seattle got their own rush game rolling behind Marshawn Lynch, who had 97 yards, and that allowed Russell Wilson to be smoothly efficient.

The one thing the Seahawks didn’t do was protect the passer—the mobile Wilson was sacked four times, but there are no defensive lines in the playoffs as good as the one St. Louis brings.

New Orleans 42 Tampa Bay 17: As expected, Drew Brees playing at home in a must-win spot was too much to handle. Brees was 24/31 for 370 yards and he spread the ball around to everyone. Tampa Bay hung in for most of the first half, but the Saints pulled away and clinched a wild-card spot.


San Francisco 23 Arizona 20: San Francisco already had a wild-card spot, and Arizona was playing in the hopes that New Orleans might lose. As it turns out, this was a good game that meant very little by the time all was said and done, and the 49ers kicked a late field goal to win after blowing a 17-0 lead.

Colin Kaepernick continues to play very well, going 21/34 for 310 yards and no interceptions against one of the best and most aggressive defenses in the league.

Now we move on to seven notable games in the AFC, starting with the choke jobs that were completed by Baltimore and Miami. The Ravens and Dolphins each lost their final two games, opening the door for San Diego and Pittsburgh to have hope.

Cincinnati 34 Baltimore 17: Can the notion that Joe Flacco is some kind of franchise quarterback simply because the Ravens won the Super Bowl last year, be finally put to rest. With a big new contract and more responsibility on his shoulders, Flacco floundered all year and it hit its climax in a poor performance on Sunday with the season on the line.

Flacco went 30/50 for 192 yards and three interceptions. The quarterback’s defenders will say that it was about the bad offensive line. I would agree, but after Flacco made such a production about demanding—and getting—money that put him on a par with the game’s elite, I feel like someone needs to tell him that elite quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning sling their teams to 10-11 wins and playoff relevance every year, not just years where the supporting cast is good.

NY Jets 20 Miami 7: The Dolphins couldn’t force Geno Smith into mistakes, while Ryan Tannehill threw three picks of his own. In blowing two winnable games (at Buffalo, and this home game with the Jets), the Dolphins clearly lack toughness. I guess all the locker room bullying isn’t working.

Pittsburgh 20 Cleveland 7: Le’Veon Bell rushed for 90 yards and the Steelers churned out a win that kept them alive into the late afternoon. All they needed was a San Diego loss.

San Diego 27 Kansas City 24 (OT): Kansas City rested starters, including quarterback Alex Smith, to get set for next week’s first-round games. The Chiefs still had a 24-14 lead, and were in position to win the game with a field goal that was blocked. Replays showed San Diego should have been whistled for a penalty for too many men in a down position, but the penalty was overlooked.

What saved the Chargers in this game, as it has throughout their stretch run, is running the ball. Philip Rivers played well, but whether he plays well in victory or defeat depends on Ryan Mathews. In this game, Mathews ran for 144 yards and San Diego gets the final playoff spot in the AFC.

Denver 34 Oakland 14: Peyton Manning was locked in, going 25/28 for 266 yards as the Broncos roll to an easy win and wrap up the #1 seed in the AFC.

New England 34 Buffalo 20: With all the injuries at receiver, New England has become a good running team and it’s what saved them in a game against a feisty Bills’ team that was 27-20 late into the fourth quarter. LeGarrette Blount rolled up 189 yards and finally broke off the clinching touchdown with 2:31 to play, as the Patriots secured the #2 seed.

Indianapolis 30 Jacksonville 10: This one was of marginal significance to begin with—the most the Colts could do was move up from #4 to #3 in the AFC bracket and Cincinnati’s win took even that away. Andrew Luck is playing some sharp football right now, going 26/37 for 282 yards and hooking up with T.Y. Hilton 11 times for 155 of those yards.

And the three games from outside the playoff picture…

Tennessee 16 Houston 10: Chris Johnson ran for 127 yards, as the Titans get to 7-9, not a bad finish in a year where they had to play Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback most of the way.

Minnesota 14 Detroit 13: It wasn’t enough to save Leslie Frazier’s job, but the Vikings concluded a nice second half to the season with 115 rush yards from Matt Asiata. It was the final game in the Metrodome, to which we can only say good riddance.

NY Giants 20 Washington 6: I watched this game, played in a pouring rain in a stadium mostly attempt and quiet. It reminded me of some of the youth football games I covered this past fall, with the exception being that in the latter, at least the parents were proud of the effort. I don’t think the same can be said of the Redskins. Any hope of getting a decent draft pick for Kirk Cousins was gone, as he went 19/49 for 169 yards, threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.

NFL Week 17 TV Schedule & Moneylines

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It’s only fitting that Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers was cleared to play for Sunday’s winner-take-all battle in the NFC North at Chicago. It was the Bears who originally broke Rodgers’ collarbone all the way back in Week 9 and #12 hasn’t been seen from since.

The comeback brings everything full circle. And in a year where the State Farm commercials featuring Rodgers show him being harangued by Bears’ fans, the timing of the quarterback’s return becomes even more ironic.


Green Bay-Chicago is one of two win-or-go-home games that highlight the NFL Week 17 schedule. The Packers-Bears set the table in the late afternoon for the prime-time fare that will be Philadelphia-Dallas in the NFC East. Injuries at the quarterback position have dominated headlines in that game as well, with Tony Romo only given a small percentage chance of being under center for the Cowboys thanks to a back injury.

TheSportsNotebook will review NFL Week 17 as we have each week leading up to this. We’ll break down the day by the TV schedule, and look at the moneylines for each game—the odds of each team winning outright, as expressed in $100 betting increments. And as I’ve done all year I’ll make a woefully flawed pick. My moneyline record after 16 weeks is (-2900), so we need a dramatic surge to the finish.

Green Bay (-165) Chicago (+145) (4:25 PM ET, Fox): Even with Rodgers healthy and the Packers a road favorite, injuries still loom over them. Outside linebacker Clay Matthews is out after re-injuring his thumb, and Eddie Lacy hasn’t practice all week after an ankle injury towards the end of last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.

Chicago’s own injury problem is that starting quarterback Jay Cutler is healthy. Josh McCown was decidedly superior in his own starts when Cutler was out, and the Bears were nothing short of a disgrace last Sunday night in Philadelphia when Chicago could have clinched the NFC North. Whether the Bears lose this game remains to be seen, but we can surely say this—they deserve to.

I’m not ready to assume that Rodgers is just going to be magically be sharp, but I am ready to assume that Lacy will play and I don’t believe Chicago can tackle him. This is a soft Bears team and while the Packer defense has more than their share of flaws, they’re at least getting some takeaways in recent weeks. That’s why I’m picking Green Bay to clinch the NFC North.

Philadelphia (-250) Dallas (+210) (8:30 PM ET, NBC): Kyle Orton is the man we’re assuming will quarterback Dallas on Sunday night, as the Cowboys try to avoid losing a winner-take-all game in prime-time for the third consecutive year, each one to a different rival in the NFC East.

There’s no reason, short of homefield advantage, to pick the Cowboys. The defense is terrible, the Philadelphia offense is clicking, with LeSean McCoy dominating on the ground and Nick Foles playing with smooth efficiency in the passing game. The Eagles have respectable pass rushers on the outside in linebackers Trent Cole and Connor Barwin.

It’s going to take an exceptional football game from the Dallas defense, namely defensive end Demarcus Ware. And this at a time when Cowboy Nation has just been hoping for mediocre, never mind exceptional.


But…this is just shaping up a little too easy for Philadelphia and winning a game like this on the road is never easy. Orton stepped into a starting job in Kansas City at the end of 2011 and he beat then-undefeated Green Bay in December and went on the road to beat Denver at the height of Tebow-Mania when the Broncos were trying to clinch the division. The stage won’t frighten Orton.

I’m going to take a flyer on an upset and say that this is how Romo manages to get bad press in this season—that his team’s biggest win comes with a backup quarterback.

LATE AFTERNOON ON CBS

Both CBS & Fox have doubleheaders for the regular season finales. CBS will focus its 4:25 PM ET telecasts on the fight for the #1 seed in the AFC. Denver can lock it up with a win. New England stands in waiting and the Patriots aren’t yet home free for the 2-spot and a first-round bye. Each team goes in the late window, with the Broncos going to most of the country.

Denver (-580) Oakland (+435): Terrelle Pryor is going to start at quarterback for Oakland and his agent is griping that head coach Dennis Allen wants Pryor to fail. I’m going to take that as a subtle hint that Pryor and the Raiders aren’t entirely focused. Denver sews up the #1 seed for the second straight year.

Buffalo (+320) New England (-400): The Patriots will know by the time they take the field if the first-round bye is at stake, pending how Cincinnati does in the early games. By rights, the Pats should easily beat Buffalo at home, but I’m not ready to sleep on the Bills.

They’ve won two straight, including shutting out playoff hopeful Miami last week. Buffalo is playing to get to 7-9, something that would be a nice first year for head coach Doug Marrone. From a matchup standpoint, they have the #5 pass defense in the NFL and New England without Rob Gronkowski has struggled to get receivers open for Tom Brady.

So does “not ready to sleep on the Bills” equate to picking them to win? Not quite, but I think this one is going to be good.

NATIONAL GAMES IN THE EARLY WINDOW

Both of these games will be seen by large parts of the country…

Baltimore (+205) Cincinnati (-245) (1 PM ET, CBS): The Ravens need to win this game and then have either Miami or San Diego lose. Both Baltimore and Cincinnati have good defenses and quarterbacks who throw interceptions. Andy Dalton has shown a greater capacity for explosiveness this season, while Joe Flacco has a demonstrated ability to play big in tough moments like this.


It’s big for Cincinnati, as they angle for playoff seeding, but it’s monumental for Baltimore. I don’t know if the defending champs will make it back to the postseason, but I’ll pick the Ravens to have at least one more big performance.

Carolina (-265) Atlanta (+220) (1 PM ET, Fox): I’ve praised Atlanta throughout the stretch drive for their competitive integrity in refusing to quit amidst a lost season that has them at 4-11 after being one play from the Super Bowl a year ago. Even playing at home, I wonder if last Monday night in San Francisco might have finally drained the Falcons of competitive juice.

San Francisco was the team that had denied Atlanta the Super Bowl and surely there was some revenge motivation, as the Falcons nearly pulled the upset. Now they’re on a short week and playing a team looking to wrap up the NFC South, the #2 seed and keep its hopes alive for the top spot in the NFC bracket.

And finally there’s this—as much as they fight, Atlanta just isn’t good defensively, they have problems on the offensive line, they’re without Julio Jones and Matt Ryan is just stuck in a rut of throwing critical interceptions. It’s the problem of all season, it did them in on Monday and it will do them in against Carolina.

SIX MORE GAMES WITH PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS

NY Jets (+195) Miami (-230): The Dolphins have the best chance of the four contenders for the AFC’s final playoff spot, including Baltimore, San Diego and Pittsburgh. None control their destiny, but unlike Baltimore, Miami has a manageable home game.

The Dolphins, presuming they take care of business, would just need either a Ravens loss or a Chargers win (the rationale here being that with all three teams at 8-7, Miami wins a three-way tie, they win a two-way tie with San Diego and lose a two-way tie with Baltimore).

But should we presume the Dolphins will take care of business. They spit the bit last week in Buffalo, losing 19-0, while the Jets got a good running game and ran over Cleveland. I’m not expecting Miami to play well, but given the ability of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to pressure the passer, I’m guessing they force New York quarterback Geno Smith into 2-3 interceptions and win ugly.

Kansas City (+340) San Diego (-430): Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed, which explains why they’re such a substantial road underdog at San Diego. The Chargers need a win, and both Miami and Baltimore to lose to snag the #6 seed.

I’d like to say I think they’ll get it, but Kansas City has shown no inclination to rest their starters (though Tamba Hali’s sore knee may end up in him sitting down). There may be a little revenge, as the Chargers won in Kansas City earlier this season, and after looking bad in a home loss to Indianapolis last week, Andy Reid might want his Chiefs to focus and play well going into next week’s first-round games.

When you combine all of that with the big moneyline risk there is going with the favorite, and it points me to picking the Chiefs.

Cleveland (+255) Pittsburgh (-310): The Steelers need outside linebacker Jason Wordlis healthy from an abdomen injury, as they try and pressure Cleveland quarterback Jason Campbell and prevent him from hooking up with Josh Gordon. The Browns seem to have a lost a lot of their competitiveness in recent weeks and I’m picking Pittsburgh. The Steelers need the Grand Slam Parlay of a win, plus losses by San Diego, Miami and Baltimore to make the playoffs at 8-8.

Tampa Bay (+490) New Orleans (-675): Tampa Bay, like Cleveland, seems to have lost some of their underdog fire in recent weeks. In both cases, the decline began right around the point when I started picking them. To the dismay of Saints fans, I’m reversing course today.

New Orleans has played itself into a must-win spot at home. A loss puts them in danger of missing the playoffs, while they also have a chance at the division title and 2-seed if Carolina loses. We know how different the Saints and Drew Brees are at home and with Tampa Bay fading again, the favorite is worth the price.

San Francisco (-120) Arizona (+100): Both teams need help in games that will go on in the same late afternoon window that this one kicks off in. The Cardinals need the Saints to lose in order to have a chance at the playoffs. The 49ers are in the postseason, but need the Seahawks to lose to win the NFC West. And if Carolina and Seattle both lose, the Niners can move up to the #1 seed.

Arizona is the best team in football over the second half of the season and Bruce Arians is making his case to catch Andy Reid for Coach of the Year. The Cardinals are the best in the NFL at stopping the run. Colin Kaepernick has stepped up admirably in games where the Niners have needed his arm recently, but on the road against this defense won’t be one of them. Arizona wins it.

St. Louis (+420) Seattle (-550): The odds of Seattle losing a second straight home game to a division opponent are pretty long (well, they’re -550 to be exact). They played well defensively in last week’s loss to Arizona and I expect the Seahawks D to force Kellen Clemens into mistakes and to make Zac Stacy’s life miserable.

The bigger-picture question will be how the Seattle offense bounces back from its awful showing against a defense that can bring it with the front four. I’m sure Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch & Co. don’t want to close with two straight subpar games, leading into a week off and having to open the postseason without having played a good offensive game in a month.

FOUR MEANINGLESS GAMES

Jacksonville (+410) Indianapolis (-520): I suppose this game isn’t literally meaningless. Indianapolis can move from the 4-seed to the 3-seed if Cincinnati were to lose. But in either case that means no first-round bye, while still opening the playoffs at home. The bracket has no obviously advantageous position to be and the 3 and 4 seeds have met in a conference championship game just twice in league history (1987 and 2006).

Now that I’ve thoroughly debunked the game, I still expect the Colts to make that hefty moneyline worthwhile on their home field.

Houston (+235) Tennessee (-285): The Titans took care of Jacksonville last week behind balanced running from Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene, so I guess I’ll trust them to do it again at home as a solid favorite. A win gets them to 7-9 which becomes a good case for Mike Munchak keeping his job in a year where Jake Locker was hurt most of the way.

Detroit (+115) Minnesota (-135): Yes, the Lions have really sunk this low. Not only are they out of the playoffs, but they’re underdogs at Minnesota. Detroit’s Thanksgiving Day thrashing of Green Bay seems like ages ago. I took a chance on the Vikings at Cincinnati last week, getting carried away with what Minnesota might do on the road. Now that they’re back at home, I’ll take the Vikes to put the Jim Schwartz Era out of its misery.

Washington (+155) NY Giants (-180): At the start of the season these were the teams I picked to finish 10-6, a scenario that would have likely turned this into the flexed Sunday Night Game. Instead, it’s flexed into this last spot on TheSportsNotebook’s list of games to review. Regular readers know I’m a ‘Skins fan and have put up with my rants all year. I’m consoled by this fact—my belated Christmas gift probably comes by late afternoon when Mike Shanahan gets fired. No prediction here. 

NFL Week 17: The NFC’s Last Battles

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The NFC is where the action is in NFL Week 17. While there are some important battles for the top three seed positions in the AFC, it’s the NFC that has two “win-or-go-home” games, a division title and bye still to settle, plus the prospect of two major market teams that looked home free as recently as three weeks ago needing help. On the season’s closing week, with all divisional games on the schedule and both CBS & Fox having doubleheaders, it’s an ideal day for all-day football and we begin with the NFC tripleheader that will sort out most of the playoff picture…

NFC TRIPLEHEADER

Can Dallas win a division without a running game? Can Minnesota make the playoffs without a quarterback? Can the Giants get a miracle? Can the Packers get some time off?

EARLY: Chicago-Detroit & Philadelphia-NY Giants (1 PM ET, Fox)—The Bears and Giants each have to win and get help. As long as Chicago wins, they stay alive into the late afternoon. New York would be eliminated if the Bears win.

I don’t see any reason to think the Giants won’t take care of business—yes, I do say that being fully aware of how poorly this team has played the last two weeks and give Philadelphia credit for the effort they brought against Washington last week. But Michael Vick is slated to start and I think you have to assume he’s got some rust on him and that means turnovers. A win means all New York needs is for Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas to all lose.

As for Chicago, I expect Detroit to bring full effort—they did last Saturday night in Atlanta. But the Lions are exactly the kind of talented team the Bears feast on—one that makes too many mistakes, both in terms of penalties and turnovers, while they stay disciplined. I expect Chicago fans to have to sweat this one on the road, but in the end Matthew Stafford gives them a couple interceptions, the Lions as a whole give them 10 penalties and the Bears knock out the Giants.

LATE: Green Bay-Minnesota (4:25 PM ET, Fox)—It’s the second-biggest game of Week 17. A Packer win secures a first-round bye. A Viking win puts them in the playoffs, and likely drags the Packers back into the first round—where these same two teams would probably play again.

Aaron Rodgers is playing his best football of the year right now and if he gets any time to throw, Minnesota has no way to keep up—how many 70-yard runs is Adrian Peterson really going to rip off? But what if Rodgers gets knocked around in the pocket? A patchwork offensive line trying to block Jared Allen and Brian Robison is a recipe for trouble and that’s what I think Green Bay’s offense faces.

There’s still the question of whether the Viking offense can go anywhere, given Christian Ponder’s incompetence and the likelihood that even a good 110-yard game from Peterson won’t be sufficient. On paper they don’t match up with Green Bay. But Minnesota indoors is a completely different team than the outdoor version. I know they’ll have to thread the needle offensively and do everything right, but I think they’ll sack Rodgers five or six times and make enough plays to steal a win and playoff berth.

PRIME-TIME: Washington-Dallas (8:20 PM ET, NBC)—For Dallas, its win-or-go-home. Washington will likely be in the same situation by kickoff, though losses by the Bears and Vikings would secure a playoff berth for the ‘Skins. In either case, this game is for the NFC East title and #4 seed.

Tony Romo is playing extremely well, but he doesn’t get any help from the running game and the Washington defense has somehow found itself since these teams last played on Thanksgiving. Well, “found itself” might be too strong a term—but the ‘Skins defense has at least been adequate. On Sunday night they need outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan to play the game of his life and force Romo into some bad throws.

RG3 gets the credit in the Washington offense and that’s fully justified—indeed, as a partisan Redskins fan I make no attempt at any kind of historical perspective and debate only RG3’s rank among the most important men in the history of Western civilization. But that aside, the ‘Skins running game has become a positive beast, with rookie Alfred Morris leading the way. He’s the latest example of Mike Shanahan turning a middle-round pick into a star. His ability to run between the tackles forces Cowboy outside linebackers Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to stay at home, as does RG3’s scrambling ability. And when Ware and Spencer can’t turn it loose, it neutralizes the best asset of the Cowboy defense.

I haven’t come this far with the Redskins to pick against them in the most important game in twenty years, including the three playoff years in that timeframe (1999, 2005, 2007). But I am nervous that the media bandwagon, which is often wrong, is running so heavily to RG3 on Sunday night.

NFC WEST ON THE LINE

Arizona-San Francisco and St. Louis-Seattle both go in the 4:25 PM ET window. A 49ers win will clinch the NFC West, while a loss opens the door for the Seahawks. In either case, the division champ is set to be the #3 seed and would move up to #2 and the bye in the event of a Packer loss.

There’s no rational reason to pick against San Francisco. The real question is going to be whether the Niners can blow out Arizona quickly and start getting some people rested. Jim Harbaugh’s team is getting nicked up across the defense, with defensive end Justin Smith being only the most notable. No team could use a bye right now more than the Niners and I think they’ll get it.

Its unfortunate the Rams-Seahawks game likely won’t matter for anything more than determining  if Seattle is the 5th or 6th seed (a distinction that has never mattered since the league went to six teams per conference in 1990). Because St. Louis is 4-0-1 against the rest of the NFC West, they play hard every week and at 7-7-1 overall, they’re playing for a winning season in Jeff Fischer’s first year. I expect St. Louis to approach this game the way a young college football team would treat a bowl game—a chance to close a nice season on a good note and send a message for next year.

AFC ANGLES

All that matters in the AFC is for Houston, Denver and New England to settle the 1-2-3 spots in the bracket. Houston-Indianapolis will go early (1 PM ET, CBS) to most of the country and the Texans will have the opportunity to clinch the top seed. Indianapolis is already locked into the 5-seed and you could quite reasonably argue that the motivation for this game would be all with Houston. Except for the fact that the return of Chuck Pagano to the sideline after his season-long fight with leukemia is the single greatest motivational tool that could possibly exists. There are no plans to rest the starters for next week’s playoff game.

Furthermore, Indianapolis is just a better team right now than Houston. The Texans’ incredibly flat showing against Minnesota last week—when they could have clinched homefield—spoke volumes to how badly they’re struggling. Houston is banged up defensively and struggling to get offensive production from tight end Owen Daniels, normally a key component of their offense. This team badly needs a week off to rest and re-set, but if they lose here, they’d need an upset somewhere else for that to happen. And I think the return of Pagano inspires the Colts to a win.

CBS will split its 4:25 ET coverage east and west, with Miami-New England and Kansas City-Denver. The Patriots-Dolphins is the nominally bigger game, by virtue of getting the #1 broadcast team of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. It’s also the game more likely to be competitive. The Pats are another team with a  banged up defense that could use some rest and it still doesn’t look like Rob Gronkowski is back.

Miami can cause some intermittent problems for the Pats with their pass rush, namely Cameron Wake and his 15 sacks. But on balance, this defense doesn’t cover well, which is kind of a flaw when Tom Brady is the opposing passer. They don’t throw the ball well themselves, ruining their chance to exploit New England’s biggest weakness. And the game is in Foxboro.

While New England was sluggish last week in beating Jacksonville, I would think Bill Belichick will have them focused for this one. New England starts the day in the #3 spot on the board, but if Houston loses they can move into bye position at #2.

Denver stands to move to the top seed with a Houston loss and I suppose we should acknowledge the Broncos could end up at #3 if they lose, but even considering the possibility that Kansas City can beat Denver on the road requires a colossal twisting of all forms of logic. I can’t even put this in the “anything can happen” category. If the Chiefs win this game I’m going to assume the Mayans were really right, the world actually did end and that we’re in some other form of existence.

I don’t take very seriously the argument that some teams are better off without a first-round bye, but if I were ever going to listen to it, it would be with Denver. They’ve won ten in a row, they could take it easy with starters and still win on Sunday and they’re reasonably healthy given the point in the year we’re at. You can never argue a team should face elimination in the first round rather than get a week off, but it’s worth wondering how the time off will impact Denver.

Baltimore and Cincinnati are each going to be in the playoffs and playing next week, so there’s no point in pushing anything in their game. The Ravens could move from #4 to # in the event of a New England loss—because of a head-to-head win—but given Baltimore’s an older team and the edge in this area is minimal—the #3 seed has only produced homefield in a conference championship twice (1987 Redskins & 2006 Colts), so there’s nothing to be gained by pushing. And Cincinnati will be the 6-seed win or lose.

THE SCRAPS

Atlanta’s final tuneup is with Tampa Bay, and New Orleans, at 7-8 is playing for a little pride as they try to get to .500 at Carolina. The same goes for Pittsburgh when they visit Cleveland. I would say that San Diego’s home game with Oakland represents the final home game for the Norv Turner-A.J. Smith, but after they kept their jobs last year, I wouldn’t dare say for sure. And I could care less about the Jets’ quarterback situation when they play the Bills, in spite of the media’s persistent efforts to make a yearlong story about the fact the team had three substandard quarterbacks on its roster.

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Here’s how the playoff matchups will look if the teams favored in Las Vegas win on Sunday…

NFC: (6)Chicago at (3)San Francisco, (5)Seattle at (4)Washington
Byes: (1) Atlanta, (2)Green Bay
AFC: (6)Cincinnati at (3)New England, (5)Indianapolis at (4)Baltimore
Byes: (1)Houston, (2)Denver

And here’s how the bracket would look if something really far-fetched happens, like my picks actually coming through…

NFC: (6)Minnesota at (3)Green Bay, (5)Seattle at (4)Washington
Byes: (1)Atlanta, (2)San Francisco
AFC: (6)Cincinnati at (3)Houston, (5)Indianapolis at (4)Baltimore
Byes: (1)Denver, (2)New England

NFL Week 17 Previews

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Throughout the season, the Notebook has broken down its NFL Sunday previews by the TV coverage, figuring it made the most sense to give maximum space to the games most people were seeing. Right now though, I’m so beyond annoyed with the NFL that I’m going to junk that format for the final installment. How is it that the Jets-Dolphins, a game with a less than 50 percent chance of impacting who makes the playoffs, goes to the nation, while the Ravens-Bengals—a game with HUGE implications in the entire AFC bracket—first gets flexed to the 4:15 PM ET slot and then is buried behind Chiefs-Broncos for national coverage. To watch the biggest game of Week 17 you have to live in Baltimore or Cincinnati or subscribe to the Sunday Ticket package. I suppose my annoyance isn’t with the NFL per se, but CBS, who made the scheduling decision, because of course what we all want is to first watch a New York team, then watch Tim Tebow. Games whose impact reverberates across the playoff bracket—well, who cares about that?

Now that my rant is out of my system, here are some thoughts on each game. To your shock I’m sure, it will start with Baltimore-Cincinnati. For the Bengals, this is a win-and-you’re in spot, with a victory clinching the #6 seed in the AFC and sending them to Houston next weekend. For the Ravens it’s not about survival, but it could ultimately decide their Super Bowl fate. A Baltimore victory clinches the AFC North and a first-round bye. If New England somehow lost to Buffalo, the Ravens can still be the #1 seed. But a loss means Pittsburgh need only take care of a gimme at Cleveland to earn that same seed, while Baltimore drops to #5 and faces an immediate visit to the champion of the AFC West. The most talented team in the AFC is probably playing to preserve its Super Bowl shot in the Queen City. The Ravens have shown they can win road playoff games, but they haven’t shown they can win three in a row , so getting it done here is imperative.

The game itself looks to be a defensive struggle. Cincinnati has a tremendous ability to dominate the interior and take away Baltimore’s running game with Ray Rice. The Raven defense can be in Andy Dalton’s face the balance of the afternoon and early evening and force mistakes. Cincinnati’s pass protection is pretty good and they need to account for Terrell Suggs at all times. This one promises to be a true slugfest in the trenches with a lot on the line. I lean Baltimore to win a 17-13 final, but more importantly I wish I could see this one.

Dallas-NY Giants is the Sunday night game (8:20 PM ET, NBC) and easily the best on the NFC side of the bracket. Both teams are 8-7 and the winner will host Detroit or Atlanta next week. For the Cowboys, giving Tony Romo time in the pocket is the imperative of the week. Not only are the Giants a very pedestrian defense when they aren’t getting heat, but Romo’s bruised throwing hand has to be kept healthy. To that end, I believe Jason Garrett would be well-served by calling some early misdirection running plays to keep the New York defensive front honest. Whether Felix Jones’ hamstring is healthy enough to make that work is another question.

The Giant offense is no longer about the running game—they have the worst yards-per-carry in the league and Eli Manning has had a genuinely elite year at quarterback. The matchup of Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham against a shaky secondary is ideal for Eli, and as long as the protection schemes make sure they know where Demarcus Ware is at, the Giants will score points. Playing at home, they get the win and their first playoff trip in three years.

OTHER KEY AFC GAMES

Kansas City-Denver: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are on hand at Invesco Field as the Broncos try and conclude their miracle run to the playoffs with the quarterback Tebow displaced—Kyle Orton—now quarterbacking KC. The Broncos looked horrible last week in Buffalo, but I believe with a home crowd they can get their running game going—both with Willis McGahee and Tebow, and if they can keep the Chiefs’ ground attack under control the home team should get the win it needs to bring home the AFC West.

San Diego-Oakland: A Kansas City loss opens the door for Oakland to win the AFC West, and a Cincinnati loss unleashes a flood of scenarios that could even produce a wild-card. The Chargers couldn’t stop Oakland’s Michael Bush on the ground in the teams’ first meeting and I see little reason to think they will now, especially with everyone presuming this is the final game for Norv Turner with the playoffs out of the question. San Diego also does not rush the passer well, and I see a big game for Carson Palmer. The Chargers will get their points—Oakland’s run defense is lousy and Ryan Matthews will be good for 100-plus, but in the end the Chargers are still the Chargers. Five years after firing Marty Schottenheimer, they still haven’t made a Super Bowl. Only now they aren’t making the playoffs either.

NY Jets-Miami: You won’t have a problem finding this one on TV in the early time slot and it’s putting it mildly to say Rex Ryan’s team has a lot of problems. Their best chance to win comes through pounding Shonn Greene on the ground and taking the pressure of Mark Sanchez, but the Miami rush defense is one of the AFC’s best and they can get after the quarterback. The Jet offense looked awful last week in a bad loss to the Giants, and I really don’t think it’ll be a lot better this week in Miami. The Dolphins are playing vastly better football right now (and are in fact better than any of the AFC’s wild contenders over the past several weeks) and the vultures are circling in the Big Apple around Sanchez. Miami puts Ryan’s team out of its misery.

Tennessee-Houston: The Titans have more playoff scenarios right now than the Republicans have had challengers to Mitt Romney. What fans can know is this—as long as Tennessee wins they’re alive into the late games. Beyond that, it’s a mess. The matchup on paper is less than ideal. The Titans are at their best when Chris Johnson is running, and the Houston defense defends the run extremely well—come to think of it the Houston defense does everything extremely well and with their recent slump I would think they’d want to play to win and get a little momentum back for next week’s home playoff game against the last wild-card. Tennessee’s rush defense ranks 14th in the AFC and that means a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate, as the Texans eliminate their division rival.

NOTEWORTHY AFC GAMES

Buffalo-New England: The health of Tom Brady’s shoulder is the overriding concern here, but he expects to play and with the #1 seed on the line, New England can’t afford to sit him. Buffalo showed spark last week in blowing out Denver and C.J. Spiller can cause problems for the Patriot defense out of the backfield. I can see the Bills being pesky and hanging around, but their own defense isn’t good enough to do more than that in Brady’s backyard.

Pittsburgh-Cleveland: We noted the wide variance the Steelers’ playoff position can still take and it’s looking like Ben Roethlisberger will play. I give the Browns credit for being ready to play last week in Baltimore, but they’ve been so bad all year long, that picking them in advance is way too big a leap of faith. This game will be in the 4:15 PM ET timeslot, alongside the Baltimore-Cincy game.

NOTEWORTHY NFC GAMES

San Francisco-St. Louis: The 49ers wrap up the #2 seed with a win here and against the NFC’s worst passing offense, both in yards-per-attempt and sacks allowed, they’re going to get it.

Carolina-New Orleans: This game is Fox’s prime matchup in the early time slot, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman in the Bayou. Losing the Giants-Cowboys game killed Fox’s slate of games so Joe and Troy get a trip to the Big Easy. New Orleans needs help from St. Louis to move up to the #2 slot. Carolina wants to close out a nice rebuilding year on a good note. The Panther offense can move the ball and I see Cam Newton keeping pace with Drew Brees, who might be on a letdown after breaking Dan Marino’s single-season pass yardage record on Monday Night, and little reason to think this game will ultimately matter. Newton pulls out a win for the Panthers.

Detroit-Green Bay: It means nothing to Green Bay, and it just a little bit to Detroit. If the Lions win they clinch the #5 seed, which means a trip to the NFC East champ rather than New Orleans in the playoffs. It means something, but not enough to risk injury. All the talk is about how soon Green Bay will rest starters, but what about their opponent? The Lions don’t have the benefit of a bye next week and I wouldn’t go all-out for seeding position.

Atlanta-Tampa Bay: Atlanta takes the #5 seed if they win and Detroit loses, and like the Lions, I think they would be well-advised to rest starters. Not only for the reasons mentioned above, but two additional factors. First, if the Falcons do end up going to New Orleans you can’t tell me they wouldn’t want some revenge after the Saints kept throwing the ball in a blowout to get Brees the record (a decision I would have made too by the way ). Second, as badly as Tampa is collapsing, if the Falcons second-string can probably beat them anyway.

ANDREW LUCK SWEEPSTAKES

Indianapolis-Jacksonville: It’s down to the Colts and Rams for the #1 pick in the draft, and Indy needs to lose here to sew it up. To the disappointment of tankers everywhere, the Colts have shown some professional pride and won their last two games. But I think the tankers get their wish here—Jacksonville’s playing above average defense, especially against the run, and it’s Donald Brown in the backfield that’s been the offensive key to their wins Maurice Jones-Drew gets 100-plus of his own and Indy starts weighing the Luck-Peyton decision.

CLOSE OUT THE SEASON GAMES

Seattle-Arizona: Both teams just started a little too late, playing well in the second half, but each at 7-8. Seattle nearly upset San Francisco last week and I give them the edge here to get to .500.

Chicago-Minnesota: Toby Gerhart is the man in the backfield for the Vikings, who lost Adrian Peterson until at least next September. With the Vikes off a win in Washington and the Bears flailing, Minnesota closes the year with another win.

Washington-Philadelphia. As a ‘Skins fan I was utterly disgusted with the Minnesota loss. If Washington would have gotten to 7-9, that at least sounds like a team building to respectability. The difference between 6-10 and 5-11 isn’t as dramatic. Philadelphia played with real pride last week in Dallas, and if Washington doesn’t, this one could get ugly.