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NFL Week 15

NFL Week 15 Recap: Amazing Finishes Alter Division Races

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NFL Week 15 had some dramatic moments and the best were fortunately reserved for the games drawing national audiences, namely Green Bay’s stunning comeback from 23 points down to win at Dallas, and Baltimore’s dramatic 61-yard field goal to beat Detroit last night.

A collection of five results–including the main late afternoon national TV game (Packers-Cowboys), Sunday night (Bengals-Steelers) and Monday night (Ravens-Lions) have created a situation where winner-take-all showdowns are now set up in the AFC North, NFC North and NFC East for Week 17.

It’s those games, along with Chicago-Cleveland and Philadelphia-Minnesota that our review of NFL Week 15 will begin.


Green Bay 37 Dallas 36: I wish I could add something the mainstream media hasn’t already said about the way Dallas blew a 26-3 lead at home to a team playing with its backup quarterback. But what is there to add when we’ve already heard the following…

*A Cowboy defense that the previous Monday night had never stopped the Chicago Bears offense from scoring, gave up five touchdowns in the second half alone. Whether it was Eddie Lacy running or Matt Flynn spreading the ball around, the Cowboy D was befuddled.

*In spite of Demarco Murray running 18 times for 134 yards, Dallas did not keep feeding him the ball when they had the lead, which was all but a minute-plus.

*And Tony Romo’s decision to force a ball into coverage over the middle when he still had a 36-31 lead late in the fourth quarter was the kind of move that’s barely tolerable for a rookie. For a veteran, the word “inexcusable” isn’t strong enough.


The Cowboy collapse is a bigger story than the Packer comeback, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t salute the latter. Green Bay hasn’t thrown the ball without Aaron Rodgers, and they haven’t gotten turnovers all year. They did both when their season hung in the balance.

Chicago 38 Cleveland 31: It took Jay Cutler a little while to get going in his first start back from injury, but the Bears put up 21 points in the fourth quarter to get this road win. What’s more impressive is the way Chicago ran the ball, with Matt Forte going for 127 yards. And what’s most impressive of all is the way this defensively-challenged team shut down the previous unstoppable Cleveland wideout Josh Gordon, holding him to three catches.

Pittsburgh 30 Cincinnati 20: The Steeler defense completely took away Cincinnati’s running game with Giovanni Bernard, and Pittsburgh also shut down any downfield passing attack. Even though Andy Dalton played high-percentage and mistake-free, it wasn’t enough. Pittsburgh struck quickly with 21 points in the first quarter, including a punt return by Antonio Brown and Cincy didn’t have the firepower to make it a game again.

Baltimore 18 Detroit 16: In a franchise history marred with devastating losses, this one stands to rank pretty high on the list for the Detroit Lions. The Baltimore Ravens did nothing offensively, never scoring a touchdown and even on their final drive to the winning field goal, Joe Flacco threw about five bad passes mixed in with one halfway decent throw to Jacoby Jones. It speaks volumes to Flacco’s ineffectiveness that his coach, John Harbaugh, felt a 61-yard field goal was a higher percentage move than the big-money quarterback completing a 4th-and-7 pass and making the distance more manageable.

But this is the Detroit Lions we’re talking about. They did get robbed on a bad no-call on what should have been pass interference in the end zone on third down late in the third quarter. You can argue that because that call cost them four points and they lost by two, a Lions fan can run the math and say with some legitimacy that play was the difference.

But this is the Detroit Lions we’re talking about. Is there really a reason to think they wouldn’t have just found some other agonizing way to blow the game? Matthew Stafford was intercepted three times and Calvin Johnson dropped a two-point conversion that would have at least ensured overtime, after Detroit had scored to take a 16-15 lead.

It’s tough to lose a game when the other team can’t find the end zone and does nothing well offensively. It’s tough to lose a division title when your two primary rivals each lose their starting quarterbacks. But this is the Detroit Lions we’re talking about.


Minnesota 48 Philadelphia 30: If the Eagles would have won this game they would have set themselves up to clinch the NFC East this Sunday. They still control their fate, but so do the Cowboys. And while the Eagle defense allowed Matt Cassell to morph into the 1998 version of Randall Cunningham for the Vikings, an even bigger surprise was the failure of LeSean McCoy to generate anything on the ground.

Philadelphia was unable to exploit its comparative advantage on the ground with Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart both out for Minnesota, and the Vikings offense erupted in the fourth quarter.

The situation in the three divisions means that the Week 17 games between Green Bay-Chicago, Baltimore-Cincinnati and Philadelphia-Dallas are set to be winner-take-all, so long as they each take care of business in Week 16.

Other games around the league in NFL Week 15…

San Diego 27 Denver 20: In a stunning road upset on Thursday night, the Chargers kept their playoff hopes alive because they ran the ball. Ryan Mathews went for 127 yards on 29 carries, Philip Rivers was efficient and San Diego took away Denver’s own running attack. Peyton can’t do it all by himself.

Miami 24 New England 20: Ryan Tannehill’s growth as a quarterback continues to impress. He didn’t much ground support, and the Patriots sacked him four times, and knocked him down five more. But Tannehill still went 25/37 for 312 yards and no interceptions. He threw three touchdowns, the last to win the game with a minute and change left. The Patriots bogged down twice inside the 10-yard line and settled for field goals, clearly missing Rob Gronkowski.

St. Louis 27 New Orleans 16: Zac Stacy ran 28 times for 133 yards, and allowed for a balanced offense, while New Orleans asked Drew Brees to throw 56 times. The 24-3 halftime lead the Rams got out to surely accounted for a lot of that, but the Saints’ problems on the road and running the ball even a little bit continue.

San Francisco 33 Tampa Bay 14: There’s nothing the 49ers didn’t do well in dominating a team that has played well the last several weeks. Colin Kaepernick was both efficient and hit a long touchdown pass to Vernon Davis. San Francisco ran the ball with Frank Gore and stopped the run. This was a team that’s peaking at the right team, though they still need one more win to punch their ticket to the dance.

Arizona 37 Tennessee 34 (OT): The Cardinals took away Chris Johnson and forced Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw the ball. Though the result was closer than I expected, eventually Fitzpatrick made his mistakes, throwing three interceptions and Arizona was able to survive on the road and keep the pressure on San Francisco.

Carolina 30 NY Jets 20: Cam Newton turned a 16-for-24 passing day into 273 yards and that kind big-play capability helped the Panthers overcome an atypically soft run defense. The Panthers are now even with the Saints in the NFC South and with a Week 16 showdown coming up, the 2-seed in the NFC is up for grabs.

Kansas City 56 Oakland 31: Matt McGloin played an awful football game for Oakland. In spite of Kansas City not generating much pressure, McGloin threw four interceptions. Alex Smith was 17-of-20 for 287 yards and his best receiver was an unlikely candidate–Jamaal Charles, normally seen running over people between the tackles had eight catches for 195 yards. Great showing for KC, but I think Oakland incompetence is the bigger takeaway here.

Indianapolis 25 Houston 3: Indy’s defense got after Case Keenum, sacking him four times, knocking him down eight more and Keenum struggled to a day both inefficient (18/34), mistake-prone (two interceptions) and lacking in big plays (just 168 yards off those 18 completions)

Seattle 23 NY Giants 0: Eli Manning’s five interceptions, the lack of a running game and lack of pass protection certainly stand out for the Giants. Let’s not overlook Seattle’s own pass protection was lacking as they allowed four sacks and that’s with a mobile quarterback in Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 12-2 and almost home free in both the NFC West for the #1 seed, but they need to clean this stuff up now.

Atlanta 27 Washington 26: Nice showing for Kirk Cousins, as the Redskins’ backup quarterback threw for 381 yards on 29/45 passing after RG3 was shut down for the year. Cousins made some killer mistakes–a fumble and two interceptions all in really bad spots–that made a difference, but for his first start of the year and second of his career, there was a lot of promise there. Washington lost five fumbles total though, continuing the “if it’s not one thing it’s another” pattern that exists in poorly coached football teams.

Buffalo 27 Jacksonville 20: Both teams generated a lot of pressure on the quarterback and thus contained pass yardage, and both teams ran the ball well offensively. Buffalo ran it a little bit better though, with the Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller tag-team helping to combine for 198 yards overall.

NFL Week 15: Sunday TV Schedule & Moneylines

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After a couple weeks in a row filled with premier showdown games (New England-Denver, New Orleans-Seattle, Carolina-New Orleans, etc), NFL Week 15 is a little on the dry side. But when there’s just three weeks left in the race for the playoffs and for seeding, most games take on heightened importance.

The NFL Week 15 TV schedule is highlighted by Green Bay-Dallas (4:25 PM ET, Fox) and Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (8:30 PM ET, NBC). The injury to Aaron Rodgers has taken some of the luster off the main late afternoon TV game, and the fade of the Steelers has de-emphasized the prime-time show.


Each game remains important though, and they key up our look at the Sunday schedule, with each team’s moneyline odds–the odds for an outright win expressed in $100 betting increments–in parentheses.

Green Bay-Dallas: The word that Rodgers won’t play just became official and we’re still waiting on betting lines for this game. The Packers’ offense might be having problems, but they are about to play a defense that just allowed the Chicago Bears to score on every possession this past Monday Night. If Eddie Lacy is ready to play–the running back is listed as questionable with an ankle injury–Green Bay can run the ball and that may open up some room in the passing game for a steadily improving Matt Flynn.

If this were the Green Bay defense we expected to see-a unit that’s had its most notable components healthy for several weeks now–the Packers would still be in good position to pull off a road victory. But the Green Bay defense has been terrible in Rodgers absence and playing indoors, there is every reason to believe Tony Romo can have a big day throwing the ball.

Dallas will win a game played at a more frenetic pace, while Green Bay has a shot if they can turn the emphasis to the running game. I’ve just lost confidence in the Packers’ ability to do it and am picking the Cowboys.

Cincinnati (-125) Pittsburgh (+105): The Steelers are realistically out of the playoff picture. The Bengals can one of two ways in the AFC North–if they win here and Baltimore loses in Detroit on Monday Night, Cincinnati clinches. But if you flip those results, then the Ravens are within one game, hold the tiebreaker and we’d point to a head-to-head game in Week 17. To further sweeten the pot, Cincinnati is also in the hunt to catch New England for the #2 seed and first-round playoff bye.

The Bengals got some good running from Giovanni Bernard in last week’s win over Indianapolis, while Pittsburgh hasn’t run the ball all year. Whatever I say about the Steelers is going to end up being wrong–it’s just been that kind of year for them. I’m going to jinx them one more time in this game.

Ben Roethlisberger has had a very underappreciated year, keeping this team in games and stealing a few, as he plays with his worst supporting cast in years. It’s too late to matter, but this has the feel of a moment where a team with some proud players stands up to be counted on prime time. I don’t like the way Cincinnati nearly blew a 21-0 lead last week, and still feel like the Bengals will slip up just at the moment they’re poised to become Super Bowl contenders. This is that moment.

Three games will be seen by large portions of the country in the 1 PM ET window…


New England (-125)Miami (+105) (CBS): The main CBS game, with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call, is the best game of the week. The Dolphins are coming on strong over the last five games and with the Patriots missing Rob Gronkowski, their offense isn’t going to be the same. Meanwhile, Miami has been better balanced, with Ryan Tannehill getting different players involved in the offense and having the pass-rushing defensive ends in Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon that can cause Tom Brady some problems.

The thing is…these are the kinds of games the Patriots seem to find a way to win. I don’t think they can make the Super Bowl without Gronk (I didn’t think they were going to make it with him), but I like their chances to break the hearts of a division rival pushing for a playoff spot.

Philadelphia (-230) Minnesota (+190) (Fox): I give the Vikings a lot of credit for the way they’ve kept competing in a lost season and on their homefield, this is going to be a tough game for Philadelphia. Where the Eagles have an edge is, that they way to contain good pass-rushing defensive ends like Jared Allen and Brian Robison, you need to be able to have someone run between the tackles with the threat of cutting back, thereby making the ends stay at home and not unleash immediately on the quarterback.

Is LeSean McCoy such a back? Yeah, I think the NFL’s leading rusher is, which is why I’m picking Philly, regardless of whether or not Adrian Peterson is good to go.

Seattle (-295) NY Giants (+245) (Fox): There’s some good arguments for picking the upset here. While Seattle hasn’t formally clinched the #1 seed in the NFC it looks like only a matter of time and the sense of urgency might not be there. There’s the West Coast team playing an early game out east and messing with everyone’s body clock theory–one which I believe. And there’s the theory that says the Giants still have Super Bowl-winning players who might want to gut it up one more time, akin to what I wrote further up about the Steelers.

If it weren’t for last week’s debacle in San Diego, where the Giants lost 37-14, I’d probably have been persuaded to take an upset shot. But that game suggests to me that New York has quit on the season almost as much as NFC East foe Washington has, albeit not quite as loudly. I can’t pick an upset if I’m not sure if the dog is even going to show up with some bite, so let’s roll with Seattle .

Other games with playoff implications…


NY Jets (+415) Carolina (-425)
Kansas City (-220) Oakland (+185)
Chicago (-115) Cleveland (-105)
San Francisco (-230) Tampa Bay (+190)
New Orleans (-265) St. Louis (+220)
Arizona (-145) Tennessee (+125)

Note that the first two games are late afternoon kickoffs, including Carolina on the East Coast. San Francisco’s visit to Tampa shapes up as the most interesting to me. The Buccaneers have won four of the last five and rank 8th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game. Colin Kaepernick has started to play better in recent weeks, once he got Michael Crabtree back, and this might be the game the 49ers have to win by throwing the ball.

This week is also the best shot Arizona has at catching San Francisco and making their Week 17 showdown a possible battle for the final NFC wild-card spot. The 49ers have to lose once before that and next week’s game is at home against Atlanta.

I’m a little squeamish about the Cardinals in this road spot–another body clock game–but I’m a lot more squeamish about Ryan Fitzpatrick going against that Arizona defense. Even without Tyrann Mathieu, this is still a unit that can get after you in the front seven and has Patrick Peterson to make plays on the back end.

Jay Cutler comes back for Chicago in a move I think is a mistake. Josh McNown is playing too well right now to sit, and the Bears have no room for error. While they’re tied with Detroit, it’s the Lions who control the tiebreaker. Cleveland’s getting great production with Jason Campbell throwing the ball to Josh Gordon and I see a Browns victory coming here.

The Chiefs have new life in the AFC West after Denver lost at home last night to San Diego. Kansas City needs to win out and hope the Broncos lose one more.

Overall, my picks in the games above would be: Carolina, Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Arizona.

And finally, the games only someone with nothing better to do would watch…

Washington (+235) Atlanta (-285)
Buffalo (-125) Jacksonville (+105)
Houston (+195) Indianapolis (-235)

My apologies to the good people of Indianapolis for dumping their AFC South champion Colts into this sorry mess. But Indy is locked into the division title and isn’t going to get a first-round bye, so the rest of the regular season is pretty well pointless. The other five teams have pointless games ahead for less noble reasons.

I’ve written some commentary already on the whole drama surrounding my beloved Redskins (I will be one of those with nothing better to do who watches). I’ve also spent a lot of time this week in social media, and finally I spent at least twenty minutes outside a gym in zero degree weather talking to a fellow ‘Skins fan about our travails after a rec league basketball game. So yes, I’m somewhat wrapped up in at all right now.

For this space, let’s just say I think everything is in place for Kirk Cousins to play well–let’s not forget in similar situations (bad opposing defense, conducive weather), RG3 had good games against Minnesota and the New York Giants in recent weeks, and I think Cousins can put up some yardage against the Falcons. Whether the defense and special teams give it all back is another question, but the (+235) price tag is enough for me to take the ‘Skins. I’ll take Indianapolis and Jacksonville in the other two games.

Season-Long Moneyline Record (-1715)

NFL Week 15: Four Big Early Battles On Sunday

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If you want to watch the biggest games of the NFL Sunday card, be ready to go early, because there are four outstanding games with major playoff implications going in the 1 PM EST window. While the late afternoon game of Pittsburgh-Dallas is important and the prime-time battle of San Francisco-New England is a possible Super Bowl preview, TheSportsNotebook begins its NFL Week 15 coverage by focusing on two games from each conference. Denver-Baltimore & Indianapolis-Houston in the AFC, and Green Bay-Chicago & NY Giants-Atlanta in the NFC.

CBS EARLY

Denver-Baltimore: Most of the country will get this game, the first for the Ravens under new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell and the fact he’s going to be focused on getting Ray Rice the ball, rather than airing it out with Joe Flacco, makes Baltimore much tougher to beat on their homefield. But there are still matchup problems. The Ravens defense has struggled in pass coverage this year, as Ed Reed shows his age and corner Lardarius Webb was lost for the season early on. And if you haven’t noticed, Denver and Peyton Manning are clicking in the passing game right now. All things being equal, the Broncos are the better team.

But all things aren’t equal and it starts with the obvious of Baltimore being at home. The Ravens are also the desperate team, coming off losses to Pittsburgh & Washington—the two teams the fan base is going to be least tolerant of losses to, one for divisional reasons the other for geographic. This is still a team with a lot of veterans and while their talent level is clearly in decline, their pride is not. A win here keeps Baltimore in play for a bye and the #2 seed, while a loss potentially opens up the AFC North to Cincinnati, who won last night and would close to within a game if the Ravens lose. That’s why I think Baltimore meets the challenge and wins as a 2 ½ point home underdog.

Indianapolis-Houston: It’s hard not to pick Indy right now, with the team seemingly on a magic ride as they play inspirational football for head coach Chuck Pagano as he fights leukemia. And if you watched Houston play on Monday Night in New England—or earlier this season against Green Bay—you would be rightfully skeptical of their ability to compete against good teams and Indianapolis has become that.

But the Texans also won in Denver, and while the Colts have been doing a good job churning out wins, it’s not as though they’re beating a Murderer’s Row of opponents.  While they’ve won six of seven, the wins are Jacksonville, Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo, with all but one of those games being close. The loss came in New England by five touchdowns. Is there a reason we should expect Indianapolis to compete on the road as a nine-point underdog?

Compete, maybe and that’s a lot of points for teams separated in the standings by just two games, with Indy knowing a win sets them up to play the rematch back at home in Week 17 for the AFC South crown. But Houston’s just better and I look for them to get Arian Foster established, control the tempo and win this game.

FOX EARLY

Green Bay-Chicago: Fox sends the Joe Buck/Troy Aikman team to Soldier Field for the battle in the NFC North. The Packers are 9-4 and having already beaten the 8-5 Bears once, a win would clinch the division for Green Bay. The injury situation, a trouble spot for Mike McCarthy all year, takes a big step forward with the reports that outside linebacker Clay Matthews is likely to play, while Chicago might be without corner Tim Jennings, who’s listed as doubtful. To me, doubtful usually means they find a way to play, but after being wrong about Ben Roethlisberger in Baltimore a couple weeks ago, I’m going to be more circumspect.

Neither the Bears or Packers protect the quarterback, and both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler have to stay alert in the pocket. That makes the return of Matthews all the more important, as the Packers now have the man who can best exploit this back on the field. The Bears’ run defense is also the more suspect part of their team and that’s an area of play-calling that McCarthy’s been good about sticking to in recent weeks.

On the Chicago side, Brandon Marshall is on a hot run right now at wide receiver and the Packer defense is still without strong safety Charles Woodson, the most likely playmaker. If something can be done to give Cutler some time, the Bears can get the ball down the field. Overall though, I stand by what I wrote about Chicago last week—they are what they are at this point in the season. And what they are is a team that can beat teams they’re supposed to beat, but not those that are on a par. It was proven against Seattle at home two weeks ago. And it’ll be proven again on Sunday. That’s why even Las Vegas posts the injury-riddled Packers as a three-point favorite on the road.

NY Giants-Atlanta: It’s a rematch of last year’s first-round playoff game in the Meadowlands, that epic 24-2 win by the Giants, and it’s a possible preview of another playoff game this January. I think one prediction is safe and it’s that this time the Atlanta offense will actually score.

Both offenses should score a lot in the climate-controlled haven of the Georgia Dome. New York has better run-pass balance and a better track record in big games. And this is an enormous game for the Giants, who know if they lose, both Washington & Dallas can pull even in the NFC East. It’s not quite as big for the Falcons, who are still in good shape for the #1 seed in the NFC, but they are coming off a terrible performance in Carolina last week and something tells me Atlanta would like to at least temporarily silence the critics who say they can’t be a good team.

Beyond the intangibles, the game dynamics favor Atlanta. The Giants are going to be missing corner Prince Amakumara and strong safety Kenny Phillips, making it likely that Matt Ryan has a big game throwing the ball to Julio Jones and Roddy White. It’s going to be a shootout and the Vegas over/under number of 50.5 will fall by late in the third quarter, but in the end it’s an Atlanta win.

LATER ON SUNDAY

Pittsburgh-Dallas (4:25 PM ET, CBS): Neither team runs the ball well and both throw it down the field effectively, so in terms of the general outline of each team, it’s a wash. But the Cowboys have lost Dez Bryant at receiver, while Troy Polamulu is back in the Pittsburgh secondary. And even without their playmaking strong safety, the Steelers had done a good job in playing pass coverage and keeping things underneath. Dallas, on the other hand, still has problems in coverage and they’re going to be heavily dependent on Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger throughout the game. I don’t doubt the Cowboy outside linebackers can do it, but I don’t see them doing it better than their counterparts on Pittsburgh do to Tony Romo.

And if this game comes down to which quarterback makes the big mistake first, who do you think’s more likely? There might be a lot of potential right answers for how this game unfolds, but there’s only right answer to that latter question. I think that’s what the game hinges on and it’s why Pittsburgh gets a win on the road.

The Steelers need to keep pace with Cincinnati in the wild-card race—and possibly pull closer to Baltimore for the division, pending a result they’ll know when they take in the field. Dallas has no room for error, as they’re tied with Washington and could move into a first-place tie with the Giants—as they will also know by the time kickoff arrives.

San Francisco-New England (8:20 PM ET, NBC): The 49ers are going to need a big road win to take the NFC West and either here or next week in Seattle are the two choices. The Patriots have control of the race for the #2 seed and first-round bye in the AFC, and only need a  Houston loss to open the door for the top spot.

San Francisco is the more compelling team when you look at the overall stats. They’re strong in all phases of defense, they’re an elite team running the ball and the passing game is very efficient. While New England has made great strides defensively, the pass coverage is still problematic, at least for a Super Bowl hopeful. The running game is vastly improved, but still 19th in yards-per-carry. In short, while Tom Brady’s supporting cast is much better than last season, this is still a game that ultimately boils down to whether the transcendent skills of the Patriot quarterback and the tactical ingenuity of Bill Belichick can steal a win against a superior opponent.

I’m inclined to say yes—first of all, the performance of the New England defense on Monday night gives Patriot fans reasonable hope that everything is coming together at season’s end. I like the odds of Belichick finding a way to get a couple mistakes out of Colin Kaepernick. And in the end, I just wouldn’t bet against either of these teams on their homefield and the game happens to be in Foxboro.

THE REST OF NFL WEEK 15

NY Jets-Tennessee: This is the Monday Night game, and the playoff hopes of the 6-7 Jets took a blow with Cincinnati’s Thursday night win in Philly. At least the Bengals’ winning ensures that this MNF game is seen as the atrocious matchup it really as, rather than being disguised by all kinds of New York playoff talk.

Washington-Cleveland: RG3 has been downgraded to doubtful, and while I think Kirk Cousins can play and get it done for the ‘Skins, as a partisan fan, I feel nervous about Washington’s chances in the Dawg Pound. Cleveland’s been playing some good defense, they’ve played competitively at home most of the year and this one has spoiler alert written all over it. The good news? If Washington wins its final two games and gets to 9-7, they’d still take the NFC East if the Giants lose in Atlanta this week and in Baltimore next week. Maybe the fact I’m already mentally preparing for defeat tells you all you need to know.

Minnesota-St. Louis: It’s a de facto elimination game between a couple teams who have had nice seasons and hope to extend their playoff hopes a little longer. Minnesota’s 7-6 and on the fringe of the wild-card picture. The same goes for St. Louis at 6-6-1 who would likely make it if they ran the table. Both teams have good defensive fronts that can attack the quarterback. But Adrian Peterson is more effective at keeping a defense honest and even though it’s a road game for Minnesota, it’s indoors, which mitigates their disadvantage. I like the Vikes to extend their playoff chances one more week.

Seattle-Buffalo: Remember I wrote further up about San Francisco needing a road win to hold off Seattle? That doesn’t apply if the Seahawks don’t take care of business here and this is a danger spot. With corner Brandon Browner still serving his suspension and the game being played indoors at Toronto, it’s possible Ryan Fitzpatrick could open up and have a big game. Since Buffalo’s eliminated, it would be just the time for Fitzpatrick to come up huge. I still like Seattle to win and think in the right playoff situation they’re a Super Bowl threat, but I wouldn’t lay 5 ½ points to take them here.

Tampa Bay-New Orleans: I’m disgusted with Josh Freeman right now, and am ready to join most other observers in finally writing off any hope he’ll reclaim his 2010 form. The Buccaneer quarterback essentially wasted an overall team performance that was strong, as they lost to Philadelphia and blew their playoff hopes. I expect New Orleans to still have some pride playing on their homefield and to win.

Jacksonville-Miami: Any flickering hopes of a miracle realistically (though not mathematically) ended for Miami when the Bengals won on Thursday. The Fish are still significantly better than woeful Jacksonville.

Detroit-Arizona: The Cardinals are doing this year what Tampa Bay did last year and it’s essentially lying down to end the season. Detroit can do its usual round of penalties and dumb turnovers and still win by double digits in the desert.

Carolina-San Diego: In 2008, Ron Rivera came on as Norv Turner’s defensive coordinator midway through the season, helped save his job and got his career on a path that led him to the coaching post at Carolina. Now, Ron & Norv can meet at midfield and discuss where they might be employed next year.

Kansas City-Oakland: There’s really nothing to say here.