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NFL Week 13

NFL Week 13 Recap: Denver & Seattle Make Their Statements

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The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are the betting line favorites to reach the Super Bowl in New York this February. And though I’ve been skeptical of each team’s status, both Denver and Seattle showed why the smart money likes them so much. In showcase games, the Broncos won on the road in Kansas City and the Seahawks blasted New Orleans on Monday Night to highlight the results of NFL Week 13.

Denver 35 Kansas City 28: A lot of attention has been rightfully given to the inability of Kansas City to pressure Peyton Manning in each of the two games these teams have played in the last three weeks. No sacks and not even a QB hit is not the way to beat any quarterback, much less one of the all-time greats.


But the Chiefs will presumably get their defense healthy by the time a potential Round 3 takes place in January, especially outside linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. If I’m Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid, I’m more worried that Monte Ball ran through my defense for 117 yards.

And if I’m Broncos coach John Fox watching from my hospital bed recovering from heart surgery, my ticker feels a lot better after watching two straight weeks of great running from two different backs. Ball’s game follows up Knowshon Moreno’s big night last Sunday in New England.

Seattle 34 New Orleans 7: This game was ugly from the start, as an early Seattle defensive touchdown set the tone, helped build a 17-0 lead and it never got close. There was inclimate weather, as the rain pounded Century Field, but that’s hardly surprising and eventually New Orleans will have to find a way to win in a climate like this if they want to win the Super Bowl.

Russell Wilson was completely undisturbed by the elements, going 22/30 for 310 yards, all while playing his usual high-efficiency mistake-free football. The one good thing New Orleans can take away from this is that they did contain Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle running game. But the pursuit of the top seed in the NFC is realistically over for Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Now the Saints have to focus on holding off Carolina to win the NFC South and get a first-round bye.

Speaking of which, the teams jousting with Denver and Seattle/New Orleans for playoff position won against the league’s lower tier…


New England 34 Houston 31: The Patriots definitely had a letdown after the Denver game last week, and trailed 17-7 at half. Tom Brady opened up, finishing with 371 pass yards. Rob Gronkowski had a big day, with 127 of those yards, and a nice shoestring catch for a touchdown. Bill Belichick wasn’t happy after the game and I understand why a coach feels that way. But given what New England had done last week, I think this is one of the games you just say “To hell with it, we won.”

Carolina 27 Tampa Bay 6: Carolina’s defense was locked in again, shutting down the Tampa Bay running game and overcoming a couple interceptions thrown by Cam Newton. The Panther quarterback had an otherwise good day, 18/29 for 263 yards, but the mistakes will outweigh all of that if this repeats itself in the big games ahead. But in the spirit of what I wrote about the Patriots, “to hell with it, they won by three touchdowns.” New Orleans is up next for Carolina.

In the world of teams angling for division titles and home playoff games, while looking unlikely to get first-round byes, there were six big games in NFL Week 13…


Detroit 40 Green Bay 10: The Lions feasted on the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers to start off Thanksgiving Day. This result is an indictment of the entire Packer operation. It’s one thing to suffer because your franchise quarterback is out. It’s quite another to completely go in the tank, a circumstance that tells you we’ve given the rest of the team way too much credit. As for the Lions, if they commit four turnovers against a legitimate opponent, they’re finished.

Minnesota 23 Chicago 20 (OT): For the second straight week, the Vikings go into overtime and play almost a full fifth quarter, winning it with less than two minutes to go. Chicago should have won the game earlier, but head coach Marc Trestman inexplicably tried a 47-yard field goal on second down, which missed.

Trestman’s refusal to trust Josh McCown–who went 23/36 for 355 yards and no interceptions put his team a game back of Detroit in the NFC North. And the Bears’ lousy rush defense was easy picking for Adrian Peterson, who had a 211-yard game.

Dallas 31 Oakland 24: I must have eaten too much, because by the late afternoon game on Thanksgiving this is what I saw–the Dallas Cowboys ran the football and stopped the run. They played mistake-free and let the opponent beat themselves with double-digit penalties. Tony Romo was efficient–23/32–but not spectacular, getting 225 yards. And Dallas kept their poise after falling behind and took the game over in the second half. That’s what I saw, but given that this is the Cowboys, I had to be in a turkey coma and dreamt the whole thing, right?

Philadelphia 24 Arizona 21: Defensively, the Cardinals did what they had to do in stopping LeSean McCoy and the run and sacking Nick Foles five times. But Foles didn’t make any mistakes, while Carson Palmer did, throwing a couple interceptions. Philadelphia’s own defense got to Palmer five times, they built up a 24-7 lead and then hung on, keeping pace with Dallas in the NFC East.

Indianapolis 22 Tennessee 14: Indy didn’t play very well–the protection for Andrew Luck was poor, allowing five sacks and the result was inefficiency from Luck in the passing game, at 17/32. But they got big plays–Luck made his completions go for 200 yards, and the defense was in ballhawk mode, picking off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times. The win all but locks up the AFC South for the Colts, who have a three-game lead, plus tiebreakers.

Cincinnati 17 San Diego 10: Clutch road win for the Bengals, who stayed two games in front in the AFC North. BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the ball 20 times for 92 yards and helped Cincy get a hard-fought win.

In the race for the wild-card berths, three more games were significant…

Baltimore 22 Pittsburgh 20: It was a basically even game, with the difference between the Ravens’ stopping a two-point conversion with a minute to go that sealed the win. Neither team ran the ball, while Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco had good games, though Flacco was a little more effective getting it downfield, especially to Torrey Smith.

The game was marred by Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin stepping near the field of play to interfere with a potential punt return for a touchdown by Jacoby Jones. Tomlin will draw a hefty fine, as he should, and the league avoided embarrassment for the lack of a penalty on the field when Baltimore won in spite of it.

Miami 23 NY Jets 3: The Dolphins win the battle of teams trying to get to 6-6 and keep up with Baltimore in the packed race for the final AFC playoff berth. New York is collapsing and the horrid play of Geno Smith, benched for Matt Simms is a huge reason. But don’t overlook the sudden failure of the Jets’ defense, which allowed Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill to pick them apart for 328 yards.

San Francisco 23 St. Louis 13: Was this Colin Kaepernick’s moment to re-assert himself as a rising star? Playing against a good defense that took away the usually potent San Francisco running game, Kaepernick went 19/28 for 275 yards and no mistakes. After a year in which he’s struggled–and unlike RG3 in Washington, Kaepernick isn’t recovering from injury and has a great supporting cast–the 49er quarterback might be helping his team peak at the right time.

The NFL Week 13 slate is rounded out with three games that only diehard fans of each team could possibly have cared about…

NY Giants 24 Washington 17: I’m one of those diehards and this defeat was positively soul-crushing for the Redskins–or at least for me. There were at least five dropped passes where balls hit receivers in the hands, including a huge pass to Fred Davis that would have put Washington about the New York 30 with enough time in the final two minutes to go tie it up. There were stupid penalties. Lest this just turn into a rant for myself, let’s salute Justin Tuck, who had four sacks, all in the second half.

Atlanta 34 Buffalo 31 (OT): Two big turnovers by Buffalo, one late in the fourth quarter and the other in overtime, cost them a chance to win. It ruined a big day from C.J. Spiller who ran for 149 yards in front of the Toronto crowd, the one game a year where Buffalo takes a home date north of the border.

Jacksonville 32 Cleveland 28: Break up the Jaguars! Jacksonville now has three wins on the season after pundits were speculating they might go 0-16, and the remaining schedule offers chances for at least a couple more. Cleveland’s three turnovers waste a monster day from receiver Josh Gordon, who caught 10 passes for 261 yards.

The New Orleans-Seattle Fight For Homefield

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Will it turn out that a fluke of the schedule ends up being what decides who wins the Super Bowl this coming February in New York? It’s well possible–certainly the consensus view is that it will at least decide the NFC champ. The Seattle Seahawks host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night (8:30 PM ET, ESPN) with the winner taking the inside track to the #1 seed.

I understand where the consensus view comes from. In spite of recent championship teams (the last three in fact) doing it the hard way on the road, the overall record of home teams in the playoffs remains very good. Furthermore, these two teams in particular seem to have as big a home/road disparity as any contender. On their own field, each is unstoppable. Away from home, they become a pretty good team, but nothing spectacular.


Then, assuming there would be another New Orleans-Seattle game in January, the contrasts in home environment are sharp. The Saints throw it all over the place with Drew Brees indoors, while the Seahawks relish their punishing ground attack behind Marshawn Lynch and their physical cornerback play, led by Richard Sherman, all in the rain and wind of the Pacific Northwest.

So yes, I understand why this game is seen as the de facto NFC Championship Game, but I’m not ready to go quite that far myself.


New Orleans is a much better defensive team this year, more capable of winning outdoors–and whether it’s Monday Night or later in January, they’ll almost surely have to. On Seattle’s side, Russell Wilson might not be Brees, the second-year Seahawk quarterback can still move the ball and the last I checked, there’s nothing stopping Lynch from running wild indoors. The team with homefield in January would surely be the favorite, but not an unbeatable one.

Finally, let’s not forget that there are some other contenders. Could Detroit go to New Orleans and win? Why not? How about San Francisco up in Seattle? The 49ers last two trips there have been atrocious, but there’s nothing structurally about Jim Harbaugh’s team that makes them unfit to win in the cold and rain. Let’s not reduce the whole NFC race to Seattle and New Orleans just yet.

That’s why, even though I’m really looking forward to tomorrow night’s Battle In Seattle, I would still consider Denver-Kansas City late this afternoon a bigger game. The loser of that game is staring at a 5-seed and three road games. The loser of Saints-Seahawks is staring at a 2-seed, a week off and home game before going on the road.

Of course both of Monday Night’s teams have division races they have to survive, but they’ll control their own destiny in those come Tuesday morning regardless.

I don’t mean to debunk the importance of the game–I’d still rather have the 1-seed than not–but simply argue for keeping this game in perspective.

Seattle is a (-4.5) favorite, suggesting oddsmakers see them as slightly better than New Orleans on a neutral surface, plus a field goal for homefield. Although given the homefield disparity discussed above, it’s also possible that the entire number is based exclusively on who’s at home. The moneylines for outright wins–what we use here at TheSportsNotebook in making picks–has the Seahawks at (-215) and the Saints at (+180).

It was a big upset back in 2010 when New Orleans traveled to Seattle as the defending Super Bowl champ and lost a first-round playoff game to a team that won its division at 7-9. It won’t be this time. The Seahawks match up well–the Saints’ defense is better against the pass than the run, and the Seahawks’ D is the same, which works well for Seattle.

In spite of that, I’ve got a good feeling about this New Orleans team, and they remain my pick to win the Super Bowl. That likely means they have to win in this venue sooner or later. My money’s on sooner.

NFL Week 13: The Denver-Kansas City Rematch

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The Thanksgiving weekend run of football comes full circle back to the NFL on Sunday, after college football enjoyed center stage for a couple days. Once again, it’s the Denver Broncos in the spotlight.

After two big Sunday Night games against the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots, the Broncos get an afternoon kickoff this time (4:25 PM ET, CBS) but their rematch in Kansas City is still the game of the day, the best of NFL Week 13 overall and perhaps the most significant game of the year in the regular season.


Kansas City has much more at stake in this game. Even though both teams are 9-2, the Broncos have a head-to-head win in hand. Furthermore, KC’s second loss came to an AFC West opponent, the San Diego Chargers. That means that even if the Chiefs win on Sunday, the Broncos are still going to hold the tiebreaker advantage. If Denver wins, the AFC West is all but over. If Kansas City wins, this division still remains up for grabs.

The Chiefs have a terrific home crowd and the weather will be cold, a circumstance that will favor their ground-n-pound approach behind running back Jamaal Charles at the expense of the passing game that Denver relies on with Peyton Manning. But the injuries are piling up in KC, with outside linebacker Justin Houston already ruled out.  On the opposite side, fellow OLB Tamba Hali is questionable, and there are some question marks regarding the health of the offensive line.

Everything is all set up for Denver, and they are a (-240) favorite on the moneyline, while you can bet Kansas City to win outright and get (+200) odds. I’m taking a shot with the Chiefs. This is a combination of gut feeling and legitimate analysis. On the latter, I think some of the defensive injuries might be offset by weather conditions making it harder for Peyton to throw the football. On the former, I’ve just got a feeling that Kansas City, after a couple weeks of losing and their doubters out in full force, is ready to stand up with a max effort.

Two of the league’s biggest disappointments will grace your TV screen in prime-time…


NY Giants (-115) Washington (-105) (8:30 PM ET, NBC): I picked each of these teams to win 10 games and make the playoffs back when the season began. Right now they’ve only combined for seven victories. The injury situation favors the Redskins. It looks like tight end Jordan Reed, the favorite target for RG3 will be back from a concussion, while the Giants have ruled out defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and corner Corey Webster.

Regular readers of TheSportsNotebook know I refuse to pick against my own team, that being the Redskins. But that doesn’t mean I’m obligated to keep giving away moneyline increments against my score, so I’m passing on the game.

 Other games seen by large chunks of the country…

New England (-330) Houston (+270) (1 PM ET, CBS): The Patriots are actually a pretty cheap favorite given how big of a mismatch this is. Maybe the Texans of 2011-12 could have exploited New England’s soft run defense, but not this year. And even if they do, it’s not going to be nearly enough. I know the letdown issue is there with the Pats after last Sunday night’s dramatic win over Denver, but this is a veteran team that knows there’s no room for letups if they want the #1 seed in the AFC.

Arizona (+135) Philadelphia (-160) (1 PM ET, Fox): This is a terrific matchup and not just because both teams are playoff contenders. Arizona is tied for the final wild-card spot and Philly needs to win to stay tied with Dallas in the NFC East. This is also a great showdown of each team’s strength.

LeSean McCoy has already cleared the 1,000-yard mark rushing for the Eagles, while the Cardinals have the second-best rush defense in the NFL. If McCoy has a big day here we have to get him into some serious MVP discussion, at least if Peyton Manning has another rough game.

I think Arizona can at least slow down McCoy, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win the game. Nick Foles is playing well, and at the end of the day, I buy into the “body clock” theory which says that West Coast teams face a big disadvantage on these early kicks. That swings me to picking the Birds.


St. Louis (+310) San Francisco (-380) (4:25 PM ET, Fox): There are a few areas in the northeast that will see this as the one Fox game of Sunday, a network decision that surprises me given the quality of the game above.  The other thing that surprises me is that the 49ers are Sunday’s biggest favorite, both on the moneyline and the point spread, which is (-7.5).

What am I missing? The Rams are a respectable team at 5-6, they just played well against the Chicago Bears, and St. Louis caused problems for San Francisco last year, getting a win and a tie. They’re worth a moneyline shot at this price.

Games with playoff implications…

Chicago (-105) Minnesota (-115): Las Vegas is expecting some points in the climate-controlled environment at Minnesota, as the Over/Under of 50 is the highest of NFL Week 13. The Bears need this win to keep pace with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, and even on the road, I’m not sure why they’re available at such an affordable price. I’ll take Chicago.

Tampa Bay (+270) Carolina (-330): During Fox’s broadcast of the Packers-Lions game on Thanksgiving, Troy Aikman noted this matchup and how unlikely it would have been several weeks ago that Bucs-Panthers was one of the most attractive games of NFL Week 13. Tampa Bay may be long gone from the playoff race, but they’re a hot team. Carolina is missing defensive end Charles Johnson for this game, and when you combine these two factors, I think the Bucs are a worth a shot at the underdog price. Mike Glennon is playing well and if Carolina doesn’t get pressure, he can have himself a nice day.

Cincinnati (-105) San Diego (-115): Another really good matchup in the AFC, as the Chargers are in the mess of 5-6 teams that needs to match Baltimore’s win on Thursday night and keep pace. The Bengals also have the Ravens in their rearview mirror in the AFC North. San Diego relies heavily on Philip Rivers throwing the ball, and I’ll bank on Cincy defensive end Carlos Dunlap coming up with a big game teeing off in the pass rush to help get his team a road win.

Miami (+115)NY Jets (-135): The winner of this game goes to 6-6, but this has all the earmarks of a really ugly football game. The Jets lost such a game in Baltimore last Sunday, but the Miami passing game lacks the same big-play capability. If Geno Smith can avoid a turnover meltdown, I like the Jets to get the win.

Tennessee (+165) Indianapolis (-195): Indy’s only win in the last three weeks came against Tennessee on a Thursday night, but the Colts’ struggles have kept the Titans nominally in the race. Indianapolis still leads by two games and will likely hold the tiebreaker edge regardless of what happens here, thanks to the Tennessee loss to AFC South foe Jacksonville.

The Colts have the best playmaker on the field in outside linebacker Robert Mathis and his 14.5 sacks. That, combined with some of Andrew Luck’s rough-around-the-edges toughness is enough for the Colts to win and finally end things in the AFC South.

Two other games that are off the postseason radar…

Jacksonville (+255) Cleveland (-310): I suppose you can argue the Browns are in the race, being only one back in the loss column at 4-7, but with so many 5-6 teams in front of them, I’m not ready to go there just yet. After being let down by the Brownies the last couple weeks, I’m also not ready to go laying better than 3-1 odds on them. The Jaguars delivered for me as a hefty dog last week in Houston, and Maurice Jones-Drew leads the way again.

Atlanta (+145) Buffalo (-170): This game is being played in Toronto. In the league’s two games in London, the NFL sent the winless Steelers-Vikings for the first game and the Jaguars for the second. Is the NFL going out of its way to antagonize as many other countries as possible? I’ll pick Atlanta, not out of conviction, but only because I’m unwilling to lose more than (-100) on either of these teams.

NFL Week 13: AFC Showdowns On Sunday Afternoon

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The traditional powers of the AFC put it on the line in big games on NFL Sunday. CBS’ doubleheader is anchored by the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game in the 4:25 PM ET time slot, and the game it will show most of the country early on is New England’s visit to Miami. We’ll start our preview of Sunday’s action for NFL Week 13 with these two games.

Pittsburgh-Baltimore: If you look at the injury reports right now they tell us that Charlie Batch is likely to start at quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is downgraded to doubtful. I put the media reports of Batch starting in the same category I put the reports that said Mitt Romney was going to be offered a position in Barack Obama’s cabinet. Well, maybe Batch has a little better chance. But if Big Ben can walk, he’s going to be on the field when the dusk settles in Baltimore late Sunday afternoon and the 6-5 Steelers try and stop the bleeding that is a two-game losing streak.

Baltimore is the quintessential survival team, as we noted earlier this week in our NFL playoff projections and their survival skills mean this game doesn’t have to matter much to their AFC North chances, where they have a three-game lead on Pittsburgh and Cincy. But it matters a lot to their playoff positioning and as one who lived in both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, trust me when I say the animosity between these two franchises and their fan bases is not media-contrived. The Ravens will bring maximum effort.

So the question is really whether this Pittsburgh team is good enough to win a big game on the road. Let’s assume Roethlisberger will start—not only do I think he will, but this whole conversation is pointless if anyone else is under center. Let’s also assume Troy Polamulu returns, which is listed as a probable. The Steelers now have the capacity to get big plays on both sides of the ball, something that was lacking when they dropped a 13-10 decision to Baltimore two weeks ago. The Ravens’ defense has been playing better in recent weeks, but is still a far cry from their old reputation. If the great soldiers, Roethlisberger and Polamulu take the field, I think they come up with a big road win.

New England-Miami: The Dolphins match up well defensively with the Patriots. They have a front seven that can stop a New England ground game that’s become one of the best in the league. And that same front seven is skilled at rushing the passer, and if Patriot guard Logan Mankins misses the game—as currently projected, Miami can create a lot of havoc for Tom Brady, much the same way Arizona did all the way back in Week 2.

What Miami doesn’t do well is throw and somewhere along the line Ryan Tannehill has to make plays. The Dolphins like to run the ball with Reggie Bush, but all the criticism directed against the Patriot defense overlooks the fact that this a Top 10 unit against the ground game. It’s the secondary—especially late in games—that’s been the flaw. Will Tannehill be the latest to exploit it, or will this just be a case of incompetence against more incompetence late in the game?

I like the Dolphins enough to say that getting them with 7 ½ points on their homefield is a good deal, especially if Mankins and defensive end Chandler Jones end up out for New England. But either way, this one’s going to the wire and then you ask yourself whether Tom Brady or Ryan Tannehill is more likely to come with the key throw. Then you kick yourself for being dumb enough to ask the question.

NFC NORTH TRIO

Fox only broadcasts one game this week, and while the coverage is mostly split up, they’re sending the #1 broadcast team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman to Lambeau Field for the Minnesota-Green Bay game. Normally in this spot, I’d also cover the Sunday night game. But I’m so appalled that NBC is really going to inflict Philadelphia-Dallas on the nation, that I’m going to do what the network won’t—and that’s flex them out. TheSportsNotebook will instead cover Seattle-Chicago in this space as its way of protesting.

Minnesota-Green Bay: The Vikings don’t play well outdoors, as they again demonstrated last week in getting blown out at Chicago. But they also match up very well with Green Bay, especially on the defensive side. Minnesota’s defensive front four as exactly the kind of unit that has given the Packers’ problems all year. Jared Allen and Brian Robison can spend as much time in the Green Bay pocket as Aaron Rodgers and this line gets pressure up the gut as well.

If you watched the debacle Green Bay’s offensive line—a weak spot to begin the season and worsened since tackle Bryan Bulaga was lost of the year—put on last Sunday night in New York, you know that it’s possible Allen and Robison could spend as much time in the pocket as Rodgers.

What Minnesota does not have the ability to do is to capitalize on an injury-weakened Green Bay defense the way Eli Manning did, and because of that, the Packers will be able to stick to their running game and keep the pass rush at least a little bit honest. Here’s another game where I think a 7 ½ point spread is excessive, but another spot where I’d take the favorite to survive.

Seattle-Chicago: It’s been a bizarre week in the Pacific Northwest. First, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, the best corner tandem in the league were suspended, for some type of drug test failure. It was, as my podcast colleague Greg DePalma pointed out on Monday, kind of fishy, because what are the odds two players on the same team fail the same test on the same day? It makes the test of Ryan Braun look quasi-legitimate by comparison. Now Sherman and Browner are reinstated, and with Seattle’s playoff hopes have been restored.

I like the way the Seahawks match up here for the same reason the Vikings match up with the Packers—we have a home favorite with a porous offensive line against a road underdog (in this case 3 ½ points) that excels at getting after the passer. And Seattle supplements its pass rush with the terrific play on the corners mentioned, and efficient quarterback play with Russell Wilson. Seattle’s always a bit of question mark on the road, but I think they’re going to win here. My rule with the Bears is simple—they’re a playoff-caliber team, but they’re not good enough to beat other playoff-caliber teams, regardless of the venue. And Seattle is a playoff-caliber team.

MONDAY NIGHT IN THE BELTWAY

NY Giants-Washington: The Redskins look to make their last stand to try and win the NFC East, as they take on the Giants. A Washington win on their homefield would pull them to within a game of the lead and the schedule favors the Redskins the rest of the way. The problem for those of us in Redskins Nation is that our team remains mostly a one-man band of RG3, with a little Alfred Morris mixed in. As one-man bands go, this is as good as it gets, but for all the rhetoric about it being a “quarterbacks league” this is still a team game, the Giants still have Eli Manning and they happen to be better at just about every other position on the field. I don’t have my hopes up, unless New York can help us with one of their now-infamous regular season laydown games.

AFC POWER STRUGGLE

Tampa Bay-Denver: The Broncos are without Willis McGahee, whose hit injured reserve with a knee injury, but I think Knowshon Moreno can step up and give this offense its run-pass balance. And I don’t believe the Tampa pass rush or coverage is up to the task of stopping Peyton Manning in his own backyard. This is another game that could have been flexed into Sunday night, as the Bucs are 6-5 and tied with Minnesota and Seattle for the final NFC playoff spot, while Denver continues to angle for a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

Houston-Tennessee: Houston is missing outside linebacker Brooks Reed to a groin injury, and I guess we can never really write off Tennessee, given their up-and-down nature. But it’s mostly downs for the Titans and Houston’s had ten days to prepare.

Indianapolis-Detroit: I keep waiting for the Lions to really step up and just play to their talent level one time, even if the playoffs are now a pipe dream for this 4-7 team. This is a good spot for it. Indy’s pass defense is suspect and the Matthew Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson combo is the one to beat it. The Colts are 7-4 and have some breathing room in the AFC playoff race and I suspect they take their foot off the pedal.

Cincinnati-San Diego: This is an absolutely ideal spot for two teams with a history of tormenting their fan bases to rise to the occasion. Cincinnati is 6-5 and looks on a roll, ready to claim an AFC wild-card berth. Isn’t a trip west a perfect time to throw a clunker into the mix? As for San Diego, their 4-7 record has them just about dead in the playoff race. Wouldn’t now be a perfect time to get a win, also see the Steelers lose, thereby pulling the Bolts to within a game of the race? Then the fans can get their hopes up and be tormented later on with a blown special teams play or something along those lines later in the year.

THE REST

Jacksonville-Buffalo: With his teams’ playoff hopes on the line last week in Indianapolis and facing a pass defense ripe to be picked, Ryan Fitzpatrick came up small. It would then stand to figure he’ll throw for 375 yards against a lousy team in a now-meaningless game.

Cleveland-Oakland:  The Raiders are a 1 ½ point underdog at home to the Cleveland Browns. Isn’t this reason enough for somebody to get fired?

Philadelphia-Dallas:  There’s no reason to think this should be a game, as the Eagles genuinely look like the worst team in the NFL now. Except now that I’ve trashed this game left and right and buried NBC for televising it, it only stands to reason that it will go down to the wire and Nick Foles will make a series a big throws to beat the Cowboys and drastically damage their playoff hopes. Actually, I think even I can’t jinx a game that badly. Given Dallas’ erratic nature, laying 10 might be risky, but if they lose this one, Jason Garrett’s employment needs to be terminated in the postgame press conference.

San Francisco-St. Louis: In the past two months, these two cities have waged war in a seven-game National League Championship Series and played the first NFL tie game in four years. It stands to reason something interesting is going to happen and logic says it centers around Colin Kaepernick. Either he has a monster game and ends the quarterback controversy or Alex Smith has to bail him out. I like Kaepernick and think Jim Harbaugh’s doing the right thing, so I’ll go with the former.

Arizona-NY Jets & Carolina-Kansas City: I won’t insult readers with any words regarding these games that even pretends to make them worth talking about.