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NFL Week 12

NFL Week 12 Recaps: An Epic In Foxboro

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TheSportsNotebook had echoed the words of a lot of media outlets in the lead-up to Sunday Night’s Peyton Manning-Tom Brady battle in Foxboro–that continuing to watch these two legends was simply an opportunity to be appreciated. Who knew that perhaps their greatest battle was about to unfold.

By now you know that Denver blew a 24-0 lead, the game went to overtime at 31-31 and then a Bronco turnover on special teams set up an easy Patriot field goal in the final two minutes of OT. Here’s a few takeaways from this…

*I know in our rapid-reaction media culture, this first takeaway will be hard to adhere to, but let’s not read too much into the result. We know all too well from recent years in the playoffs that what happens in the regular season is by no means an indicator of what will happen in January.


No one knows this better than New England. I’m sure they recall all too well an anticipated Monday Night game with the New York Jets in 2010, where the Patriots hammered their rival 45-3. That was a late season game, but it didn’t stop the Jets from turning around and winning the playoff rematch.

*Of course this doesn’t mean the game was meaningless. It cost Denver a chance to take firm control of the AFC West. It gave New England a big leg up on Cincinnati and Indianapolis for the #2 seed and first-round bye, while keeping the Patriots in the mix for the top seed. These are both important objectives. I only suggest keeping them in perspective, not dismissing them.

*From a deeper standpoint, Denver did not play well. Their big lead was built almost exclusively on Patriot turnovers. The first touchdown was scored on defense, the second was a 10-yard drive. New England drove the ball more consistently in their own scoring run and the team that played better is the one who won the game.

*New England does have to be concerned about its rush defense. Knowshon Moreno ran wild, for 224 yards. I know Peyton’s cold-weather struggles are coming under fresh media scrutiny, but even allowing that, you can’t assume he’ll struggle to a 19/38 for 174 yards showing in a rematch, a rare combination of inefficiency and a lack of big plays.

On balance though, it was just a great night of football, and while I was rooting for New England, I appreciated the chance to watch these great players go at it, and felt for Peyton when it was over.


Here’s a look at the rest of NFL Week 12…

San Diego 41 Kansas City 38: I don’t know what’s more surprising–that the Chiefs’ defense fell apart at home in a game they really needed, or that they almost won the game in spite of it. Philip Rivers had a big day, as Kansas City’s pass rush struggled for the second straight week. Alex Smith played well and Jamaal Charles rushed for 115 yards, but the defense still couldn’t protect a four-point lead in the final minute.

Carolina 20 Miami 16: Carolina did not play well, nor did Cam Newton, at 19/38 for 174 yards. Yet the media coverage emphasized how the Panthers “found a way to win”, with special emphasis on the quarterback play in the final drive. And in this case, I think the media was right on the money. Playing a road game against a decent team, off of consecutive wins over San Francisco and New England, it was all there for Carolina to lose, and they didn’t. They obviously can’t go deep in the playoffs playing games like this, but for the Panthers this was just a spot to survive.

New Orleans 17 Atlanta 13: The Falcons put up a good fight at home on Thursday night, but they can’t protect Matt Ryan. The quarterback was sacked five times and hit ten more. As a consequence, they can’t the ball down the field–though Ryan was a precision-like 30/39 and made no mistakes, those completions only generated 292 yards.

Arizona 40 Indianapolis 11: I wish I could say something insightful, but when one team dominates the other in all phases of play, how much more is there to add? We’ll take up the implications of what it means for each contender in the bigger picture later this week when we take an overarching look at the stretch drive prior to the Thanksgiving Day games.

San Francisco 27 Washington 6: The first sentence from above basically applies here, with the one caveat that all Colin Kaepernick needed was to play against the Redskin defense–15/24 for 235 yards for a quarterback who had been struggling. I took up the deeper problems of the Redskins in an article last week.


Dallas 24 NY Giants 21: Tony Romo did a nice job on the last drive for the winning field goal and throughout the game. But while you can never complain too much about a road divisional win, this isn’t sustainable for the Cowboys. They didn’t stop the run, they didn’t pressure Eli Manning, and their own protection of Romo was spotty. The Giants never looked good in their recent four-game win streak and they looked no better here.

Pittsburgh 27 Cleveland 11: Pittsburgh dominated the scoreboard throughout the game, but the Steelers didn’t dominate the flow of play. The Browns got pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, stopped the run and really should have been able to win this game. But when you lose three fumbles and throw an interception, while getting no takeaways of your own, games are going to get away.

Baltimore 19 NY Jets 3: This might have been the most shocking game of the day. Not because of the result, but because the game went pretty much like I had predicted. It was, as expected, an ugly game. Geno Smith was unable to make plays. And while the Baltimore offense was far from pretty, the lack of pressure on Joe Flacco enabled him to make enough plays to produce a win, the signature pass being a 66-yard TD strike to Jacoby Jones.

Tennessee 23 Oakland 19: A crushing loss for the Raiders and one that’s bad for NFL fans everywhere. Oakland loses this game in the final minute and allows Ryan Fitzpatrick to drive the field and cap off a big 320-yard day with a touchdown pass. By coughing up the game to a team that committed ten penalties, the Raiders drop to 4-7, which in turn reduces the impact of their Thanksgiving battle in Dallas, a game we’ll all be stuck watching in the late afternoon on Thursday.

Tampa Bay 24 Detroit 21: When we previewed Week 12, I wrote that Detroit would stop the run and that Mike Glennon winning a passing race with Matthew Stafford at Ford Field was “not gonna happen.” So much for that. The Lions did completely shut down the running game, but Stafford threw four interceptions while Glennon was 14/21 and those fourteen completions went for a whopping 247 yards, including the 85-yard deep post that produced the winning touchdown.

St. Louis 42 Chicago 21: As I watched the score of this game unfold on the scroll beneath my TV screen, my instinctive reaction was to think the magic of Josh McCown was finally gone. Then I went to the box score. Turns out McCown played a good football game, but the Bears did not run the ball, lost a couple fumbles and played their usual atrocious defense.

Minnesota 26 Green Bay 26: I watched this game and both went out of their way to lose. The Vikes coughed up a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter to Matt Flynn–and before anyone goes crazy over Flynn, he was only 21/36 for 218 yards. The Packers had the ball inside the 10-yard-line in overtime and should have finished it with a touchdown, instead settling for a field goal. The Vikings tied it on the next possession, but a dropped pass in the end zone cost them a chance to win.

Jacksonville 13 Houston 6: This is a formula the Jags can use to play competitively in the final five weeks. Chad Henne was efficient, at 23/32 for 239 yards. Maurice Jones-Drew’s 14 carries/84 yards game is sustainable. Granted, they won’t get opponents as bad as Houston has proven to be, but Jacksonville can get back among the land of the living.

 

NFL Week 12 TV Schedule & Moneylines

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We’re at the point in the careers of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning that we never know when their last showdown will be. It would be great for football fans (at least those outside Kansas City and Indianapolis) to see the two legends go at in the AFC Championship Game, but we don’t know how that’s going to play out. The Denver Broncos visit Foxboro for Sunday Night Football against the New England Patriots (8:30 PM ET, NBC) and it’s a time to stop and appreciate the moment.

Once that moment’s over, this is a big-time football game with significant consequences throughout the AFC. It’s the second straight big Sunday night for Denver, and last week’s win over Kansas City only , moved the Broncos into a tie for first in the AFC West. That division race is completely up for grabs, as is homefield advantage in the AFC.


New England needs to win to keep themselves in play for that top seed, and the Patriots are also tied with the Indianapolis Colts at 7-3 in the race for the #2 seed and first-round bye. Fans in Indy and Kansas City also have a vested interest in what goes down in Foxboro on Sunday night.

The Broncos are a slight road favorite–a (-125) pick on the moneyline, compared to the Patriots getting (+115) odds to win outright. I don’t see where this is coming from. If you want to argue Denver is better than New England by a little bit, I get that–the record backs you up and the Patriots have had problems with the receivers all year.

But this game is in Foxboro, New England has played decent defense all season, is getting a running game and played a good game on the road against a top NFC contender on Monday Night in Carolina, with only a disputed penalty standing in the way of the Patriots’ chance to win on the final play. Rob Gronkowski looks fully in rhythm with Brady after missing much of the early season.

While I don’t think the Patriots can pressure Peyton as much as would be ideal, I also think the Denver offensive lineman might suffer a bit of a letdown in this game. For this group of five, their big game was against the vaunted Kansas City pass rush last week, and while New England is much more respected as a team, the pass rush per se doesn’t leave anyone in awe. I suspect Bill Belichick can come up with some defensive tweaks to at least slow down Denver.

Furthermore, even allowing the superb protection Manning got last Sunday night, the 27 points they scored aren’t anything that blows out the scoreboard lights. I think they’ll score about the same this time around, but I see the Patriots grabbing a win in the 31-27 range.


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Here’s a look at the rest of NFL Week 12, including TheSportsNotebook’s continued efforts to pick each game against the moneyline. I actually had a winning week last week, finishing (+280), with the bulk of that coming on the correct upset call of Oakland winning at Houston. I’m still in a (-2240) hole for the year

Dallas (+125) NY Giants (-135) (4:25 PM ET, Fox): This is the main national game in the late afternoon window, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call for Fox.

If a winning streak can look any uglier than the Giants’ current four-game run, I don’t want to see what it looks like. A win here and New York would essentially be all the way back from the 0-6 start. At 5-6, they would trail only Philadelphia by a game, and the Giants already have a head-to-head win over the Eagles and home game with their division rival in hand.

The Cowboys offer you more reasons to think they can win though. They front four is getting consistent pressure across the board, with a good year from defensive tackle Jason Hatcher making it more difficult to load up protection schemes against Demarcus Ware. I see this group getting pressure on Eli Manning, forcing some mistakes and getting out of the Big Apple with a road win.

The following three games will go to large chunks of the country in the 1 PM ET timeslot…


Carolina (-200) Miami (+170): I really hate picking this game. Miami showed in last week’s win over San Diego that they won’t go quietly because of the national media firestorm surrounding them. Carolina is coming off consecutive wins over San Francisco and New England and could hardly be faulted for a slipup on the road.

The Panthers are clearly the better team, and they also have the matchup edge. Miami’s defensive ends, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon can be neutralized by Carolina’s inside running game and beaten by Cam Newton’s mobility. But I’m play the intangible “schedule spot” card rather than the matchup card, and pick the Dolphins.

San Diego (+175) Kansas City (-205): CBS sends Jim Nantz and Phil Simms to call this game, where the Chiefs need to hold serve in their race with the Broncos. If Philip Rivers can get opened up, the Charger quarterback could put Kansas City’s ball-control attack in an uncomfortable position. The problem is that Rivers doesn’t have the weapons to do that against a defense this good.

While I respect what Mike McCoy in his first year as San Diego head coach, the loss in Miami suggests the Bolts are running out of steam. If they were catching Kansas City off a win in Denver, I might be on upset alert. But not when I expect a focused Chiefs’ team looking to take care of business at home and then get ready for another Bronco battle next week.

NY Jets (+155) Baltimore (-180): CBS will send this game to regions east of the Mississippi that don’t have a natural home team with the network. The Jets are tied with the Dolphins at 5-5 for the final playoff berth, while the Ravens are in a group of teams at 4-6. This is pretty much it for Baltimore if they’re going to make the postseason.

The Jets’ defense has been solid, but they don’t do a great job at pressuring the quarterback, making it unlikely they’ll exploit Baltimore’s main problem, which is protecting Joe Flacco. The Baltimore defense has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year. I think Flacco can make at least enough plays to get some points on the board and the Raven defense will force Geno Smith into mistakes, as Baltimore wins an ugly 17-13 kind of game.

The rest of the NFL Week 12 card…

Indianapolis (+120) Arizona (-140): This game will be a good test of Indianapolis’ Super Bowl-worthiness. Arizona defends the run as well as anyone, they’re playing at home and playing well generally. Andrew Luck has to step up.

Pittsburgh (+100) Cleveland (-120): Pittsburgh is crawling its way back into playoff contention even if they don’t always look good doing it, and a road win against another 4-6 team from the AFC North is a must. I do like the way the Browns are playing defense though, and look for them to pick up the W.

Tampa Bay (+320) Detroit (-400): The Bucs have got it going with two wins in a row, but doing it on the road in Ford Field will be tough. The Lions can take away the running game with Bobby Rainey and if that happens, Mike Glennon needs to win a shootout in climate-controlled conditions against Matthew Stafford and Megatron–and a team that’s mad after losing last week in Pittsburgh. Not happening.

Chicago (+100) St. Louis (-120): Josh McCown again gets the call for the injured Jay Cutler and that’s again good news for the Bears, who seem to have rallied to their backup. St. Louis won’t be an easy place to go and win, but I’ll take Chicago to get it done.

Minnesota (+170) Green Bay (-200): From the moment Aaron Rodgers went down, this was the game we knew the Packers had to find a way to steal if they were going to be alive when #12 returns to the lineup at some point in the next couple weeks. The Vikings defend the run reasonably well under normal circumstances and will certainly challenge Scott Tolzien to beat them. I’m concerned about the way the Green Bay defense has looked, and this moneyline is just a bit too much exposure. I’ll take an upset shot with the Vikings.

Tennessee (-115) Oakland (-105): The Raiders are still lurking around in the playoff race at 4-6, and coming off a nice road win at Houston. It’s looking like Matt McGloin will again start at quarterback, and while some greater efficiency would be nice, McGloin gives this team enough to win. I think the Titans got the best game they’re ever going to get from Ryan Fitzpatrick last Thursday against Indianapolis and they still lost, so I’m picking Oakland here.

Jacksonville (+385) Houston (-450): Two teams having lost seasons, and while Jacksonville is more lost, I’m going to take a flier with them here. The reasoning is simple–Houston isn’t good enough to risk blowing the entire week with a loss at (-450) and if I’m going to get back to break even I need some upsets of this magnitude to hit.

San Francisco (-240) Washington (+200) (Mon, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN): TheSportsNotebook ran a complete discussion of the problems with the Redskins, focusing on the dysfunction between RG3 and Mike Shanahan, and that’s the main story in this game. If the ‘Skins can rally the troops, they can win at home against a 49er team that will be on dangerous ground if they lose and slip to 6-5. I’ll stick with my ‘Skins for an upset shot, proving only that love and loyalty are often blind.

NFL Week 12: NFC Wild-Card Race On Display

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The NFC wild-card race is on center stage Sunday, with teams like the Saints & Vikings fighting for survival, the Packers and Bears battling to avoid the wild-card round and the 49ers and Giants trying to hold on to first place. Fox’s doubleheader features two key games among this group of teams, and then it rolls on into Sunday night on NBC. The matchups of Minnesota-Chicago, San Francisco-New Orleans and Green Bay-NY Giants lead up our discussion of NFL Week 12.

Minnesota-Chicago (1 PM ET, Fox): The Vikings are 6-4 and tied with Tampa Bay & Seattle for the last playoff berth, both teams Minnesota has lost head-to-head to. But if they win in Soldier Field it throws the NFC wild-race into chaos, by pulling the Vikes even with the Bears and opening up both spots for fringe contenders.

Jay Cutler is still questionable after his concussion and the Bears’ offense has been a positive disaster without him in their two recent losses to Houston and San Francisco. While those teams have defenses better than the Vikings, it’s not like Minnesota’s D is bad. It’s a middle-of-the-league unit and more importantly, the Vikes match up well with the Bears. Chicago does a terrible job protecting its quarterback and Minnesota defensive ends Jared Allen and Brian Robison do a fabulous job crashing the pocket from both ends. This team gets beat in the secondary, but without Cutler, who’s going to do the beating for Chicago.

Presuming their quarterback is out, it’s going to be up to the Bears’ defense to force Christian Ponder into mistakes, which in turn means stacking the box against Adrian Peterson and making Ponder throw. Percy Harvin is expected back at receiver, so there’s at least a little bit of a risk if Chicago brings everyone to the line of scrimmage, but it’s still a gamble worth taking. Make Ponder prove he can make the plays necessary to win a really big game on the road.

My own view on this game is that who wins or loses depends on whether Cutler is available (yeah, bold pick, I know). It’s going to be low-scoring in any case and when an Over/Under line gets posted, take the Under, so long as the number stays around 35.

San Francisco-New Orleans (4:25 PM ET, Fox): New Orleans is feeling it in the playoff race, up to 5-5 and just a game out. There’s no room for error though, since the NFC South has been put out of reach by Atlanta and Sunday’s game is one of several tough battles for the Saints the rest of the way. They certainly need to win their big ones at home. San Francisco, at 7-2-1, has some breathing room in the NFC West, but is still tight in the race for both the #1 playoff seed, as well as slipping to #3 and out of first-round bye territory.

The Saints might be winning games, but they still aren’t’ defending the run. And even if you don’t believe San Fran’s backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick is as good as he looked Monday night, the performance against the Bears is going to require New Orleans to respect the pass. It’s also possible Alex Smith could get back into the lineup. The 49ers are going to run the ball effectively and their offensive success will depend on how many big plays Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis can make down the field. If past history against this particular defense—both in last year’s playoffs and by every other NFL opponent in 2012—is any indication, the number of big plays is going to be high.

Whether Drew Brees can answer for New Orleans depends largely on his offensive line’s ability to locate Aldon Smith. The Niner outside linebacker already has 15 sacks and he has to be kept from spending the day with Brees in the backfield. The fact New Orleans has shown a better commitment to the run since the return of interim coach Joe Vitt will aid that goal.

Picking New Orleans violates all my firmly held beliefs about taking a team that’s used a hot offense to beat some questionable opponents over a real football team with a running game and defense, but that’s what I’m going to do here. I like New Orleans’ homefield advantage, their desperation factor and their revenge factor, going back to January. There’s a lot of intangibles working in the Saints favor and I think they manifest themselves in a hard-fought victory.

Green Bay-NY Giants (8:20 PM ET, NBC): It’s another rematch from the second round of last year’s NFC playoffs. The Giants went reeling into last week’s bye, with two straight losses dropping them to 6-4. Green Bay has won five straight, pulled even with Chicago in the NFC North and started up Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers MVP talk all over again.

Before we get carried away, this Packer offensive line continues to have significant problems and they did not play well in last week’s win at Detroit. The Giants’ defensive front is as good as always, with Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck having good years on the ends and Linval Joseph getting good pressure up the middle. It’s imperative the Packers have success running James Starks between the tackles, or it’s going to be a long day for Rodgers.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is doing a good job defending the run this season , and are healthy on both corners again, but Charles Woodson is still out and Clay Matthews is expected to miss another game with a hamstring injury. It begs the question of where the Packer defense is going to find big plays if Eli Manning doesn’t have another implosion? The answer is simple—they aren’t.

Maybe that’s too harsh—Green Bay got a couple sacks from Erik Walden last week, but overall, this is a game where Manning has to step with a big performance against a team missing its best playmakers. Green Bay’s only real hope on the road is for a big game from Starks, creating some opportunities for Rodgers and getting some breaks with a bad game from Manning. That’s the formula that more or less worked in a big road win at Detroit, the Giants aren’t the Lions, Eli isn’t Stafford and the Pack’s not getting out of the Meadowlands with a win. Take the Giants and give the three.

The rest of the NFL Week 12 card…

Denver-Kansas City: CBS will show most of the country this game in the early time slot, as Peyton Manning’s resurgence seems to have made them a second home team to America. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell pegs Manning as the likely choice for MVP and it’s hard to argue against it. Although nothing’s harder than coming up with a reason why the Chiefs would win this game.

Atlanta-Tampa Bay: This game might well have been included in with the big three above, with the Falcons looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season and the Bucs right in the wild-card race. The only downer is this game won’t be seen by all or most of the country like the others will be. And though I know Tampa’s at home, I’m going to be surprised if they win this game. The pass rush for the Bucs is too poor and the Falcons are too motivated.

It would be nice if Atlanta got some rushing production from Michael Turner—something they didn’t do two weeks ago against the Saints—but the Tampa pass rush is so bad, this is one game where Matt Ryan can probably try 50 passes and get away with it.

Seattle-Miami: Just when I was starting to believe in Miami, they throw a clunker like last Thursday night in Buffalo. At 4-6, the Dolphins are now a playoff longshot. By rights, Seattle should be an easy call this week with the defense still stellar, Marshawn Lynch still rolling and Russell Wilson getting better as the season progresses. But the Seahawks are a different team on the road. This one’s going down to the wire. I’d lean Miami, and they’re definitely worth the value at (+3) on the line. Also keep an eye on the total of 37—I know it’s low, but this game has the look of one that can still go Under.

Pittsburgh-Cleveland: Are we writing Pittsburgh off to quickly? They’re only a one-point favorite against the Browns, so I’m guessing some type of public opinion is moving against them. It’s understandable, with Ben Roethlisberger still out, along with Troy Polamulu, and now third-string Charlie Batch expected to be behind center.

But Mike Tomlin has made do in some tough situations and it’s not like he’s asking Batch—a veteran, with substantial starting experience by the way—to go beat New England or Houston. He’s asking him to manage the game, let what’s become a sound running game take over and beat a team that’s mastered the art of shooting themselves in the foot. Sure, I think this will be close, but when the money’s on the table, the Steelers find a way to win.

Baltimore-San Diego: These teams are probably of roughly equivalent talent, with the Ravens being a little more talented on the offensive side, with the Chargers having superior pass rush personnel on defense. But there’s a reason Baltimore is 8-2, while San Diego is 4-6 and it’s called knowing how to win.

There’s a part of me that wants to go with the Chargers for the same reason I picked the Saints—homefield, must-win spot and here we throw in Ravens on a letdown after beating Pittsburgh and traveling west. But what has happened this season to ever pick San Diego? What has happened to make us believe Baltimore couldn’t overcome a bad performance and win anyway? Oh, and Philip Rivers brings his interception problems to a game with Ed Reed roving the secondary. Nothing like gas on a fire.

Oakland-Cincinnati: TheSportsNotebook broke down the Bengals’ playoff chances earlier this week. Carson Palmer against his old team adds some intangibles that Cincy, as the better team if all goes according to form, really doesn’t need to be involved.

Buffalo-Indy:  Believe it or not, if the Bills win, they’re back in the playoff discussion. Indy is 6-4 and a win here pulls 4-6 Buffalo within one game, as well as opening the door to other 4-6 teams to climb back in. And I think Buffalo’s going to do it. The Colt secondary has been poor all year and was really exposed last week. I’m not saying Ryan Fitzpatrick is Tom Brady, but nor am I saying the Bills will hang 59 points on the board. Maybe 28, and if the Bill defense shows up—and with ten days to prepare there’s no reason to think they won’t—Buffalo gets a big road win.

Tennessee-Jacksonville: Kudos to Jacksonville for showing up in noble losses like last week’s overtime crusher to Houston and an earlier game at Green Bay. Now the Jags have to show up like that in a winnable spot. I like Chad Henne at quarterback and the sudden breakout it inspired from rookie receiver Justin Blackmon, and I’ll pick Jacksonville to get a road win that ruins Tennessee’s outside shot at the playoffs.

Carolina-Philly (Mon Night): It’s Monday Night matchups like this that make me unashamed to admit I’ll watch the finals of Dancing With The Stars  instead.