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NFL Team Previews: Baltimore Ravens

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Since John Harbaugh took the reins of the Baltimore Ravens four years ago, his teams have won 43 regular season games and picked up five playoff wins. They captured their first AFC North title a year ago. But the one thing they don’t have is a Super Bowl trip. The last two years have seen playoff losses in Pittsburgh and New England that took ripping the hearts out of a fan base and raised it to an art form. The debate now is whether the Ravens’ window of opportunity has closed. TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look as we begin the final countdown to the regular season opener…

OFFENSE: Age is a factor at a lot of spots on this team and we have to begin with the offensive line. Matt Birk was a quality center last year, but he’s 36. Bobbie Williams at left guard is 35 and Bryant McKinnie at left tackle is the spring chicken of that side of the line at 32. More important, neither Williams nor McKinnie is a standout player, though both have been functionable. On the other side Marshall Yanda is a standout at right guard. Tackle Michael Oher—shifted away from the blind side in spite of his being the focal point of the movie by that same name—ha s talent and run-blocking sills, but scouts criticize his lack of ability to recover in pass protection if he loses the initial hit.

Joe Flacco might have answered all the questions that linger about his big-game capacity if only Lee Evans had hung on to a game-winning pass in the end zone at the end of last year’s AFC Championship Game. Instead, Evans dropped the ball, Billy Cundiff shanked the ensuing field goal and while Flacco got praise for outplaying Tom Brady, don’t expect anyone to remember if the Ravens’ quarterback can’t get to a Super Bowl soon.

The offense is built around Ray Rice, who racked up over 1,300 yards in rushing and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. And while the receiving corps is not great, the combo of possession receiver Anquan Boldin and downfield threat Torrey Smith have given Flacco two good targets. The team could use someone to step up as a third receiver, but no obvious candidate exists, nor has Baltimore been able to adequately replace Todd Heap at tight end.

DEFENSE: The Baltimore defense won’t be what it used to be this season. The linebackers are at the heart of the 3-4 scheme and the Ravens are very weak on the outside and one of the inside spots. The one strength is, of course, Ray Lewis—who happens to be 37 years old. Then you go to the defensive backfield and while free safety Ed Reed is still 33 years old and as good as there is when healthy, his health is far from a given. The best player on the defense these days is Haloti Ngata, the defensive end. But the system played doesn’t really free Ngata up and he only had five sacks last year. So where will the big plays come from?

Baltimore’s going to hope Lardarius Webb, their emerging corner can take care of top receivers one-on-one. This is going to be necessary, because Cary Williams is a weak link on the other corner and Reed will need to shade that side of the field to help. Bernard Pollard is a rock solid at strong safety—not a great player, but very good and no real weaknesses in his game.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 10— I think the Ravens have hit the end of the line and have no hesitation on going Under,even if they’ve won at least 11 games in three of Harbaugh’s four years.

NFL Team Previews: Houston Texans

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The Houston Texans broke through last season. Their 10-6 record and subsequent first round victory over Cincinnati produced the franchise’s first playoff berth, first AFC South title and first playoff win, all in one fell swoop. Now it’s time to the next question—the Patriots have flaws. The Ravens & Steelers are getting old. Is now the time for the Texans to win an AFC crown? TheSportsNotebook previews their chances in 2012…

OFFENSE: Houston ran away with the division early last year, meaning the season-ending injury to quarterback Matt Schaub left them plenty of time to mess around, blow a couple games and settle on T.J. Yates as the backup. The only games the team won with Yates were a regular season game against Cincinnati, then the playoff win over the same team.

Given that, it’s surprising the organization made no effort to strengthen the backup position. Schaub can be a prolific quarterback, a Fantasy player’s dream, but there are questions about his ability to close games and his durability. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the playoff experience the rest of the team has. We know he’ll throw the ball well enough to make this team a contender, but we don’t know much beyond that.

Schaub can be secure knowing that when he turns to hand off there’s Arian Foster and Ben Tate, the league’s best 1-2 running back punch, waiting to take the ball. Foster is the consensus choice among Fantasy players as the best back in the league right now and from a non-Fantasy standpoint, he’s got tremendous vision and lateral agility between the tackles.

The backs need to be good, because there’s question marks on the offensive line and with the receivers. The line has two great pieces in left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers. But they lost another quality piece in right tackle Eric Winston, who hit the free agent market. There are no viable replacements and the guards are shaky. Foster and Tate are going to make a lot of their own space.

If Andre Johnson is healthy all is good with the receivers. As good a big-play threat as there is in the game, he wasn’t healthy last year though and while expected to play when the regular season starts this year, a groin injury is already acting up. Tight end Owen Daniels has had injury problems of his own and there are no quality secondary threats.

DEFENSE: Wade Phillips showed that, for whatever his faults were in his ill-fated tenure as head coach in Dallas, he knows how to coordinate a defense. He took over this side of the ball for Gary Kubiak last year and frankly saved Kubiak’s job. Consider that Phillips took a team built for a 4-3, switched them to the 3-4, lost Mario Williams to a season-ending injury and still turned a unit known for failure into one of the best in the league. Had Schaub not been hurt, I think this defense would have put Houston in the Super Bowl and probably won it.

There aren’t many 3-4 schemes that have two defensive ends who get after the quarterback like Antonio Smith and J.J. Watt, who combined for 12 sacks—a good number in a scheme designed more to liberate outside linebackers. Speaking of which, one of those OLBS, Conner Barwin posted 11 sacks and Brooks Reed is a good pass rushing threat on the other side if opposing offensive lines forget to account for him. When you move to the inside, you find Brian Cushing, one of the best ILB’s in the business and a steady presence in Bradie James. The only soft cog in the front seven is nose guard Shaun Cody.

Jonathan Joseph gives Philips a lockdown cover corner as good as anyone not named Darrelle Revis. The secondary overall, is a good, but not great unit. Opposing quarterbacks can pick up Kareem Jackson on the other corner and while strong safety is Danieal Manning is tough against the run and in short coverage, he can beaten if the defense gets spread out. Free safety Glover Quin is reliable, but perhaps lacks the interception instincts you’d like to see from someone playing on a defense that’s going to force a lot of rushed throws.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9.5—Are you kidding? I’m debating whether to pick Houston to reach the Super Bowl. They won ten games with Schaub missing substantial time, Johnson missing substantial time and Williams—gone in free agency to Buffalo—missing the entire year. Taking them for a 10-win season and the Over is an easy call.

NFL Team Previews: St. Louis Rams

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There aren’t too many organizations in professional sports more inept than what the St. Louis Rams have been in recent years. Not only was their last winning season in 2003 and their last .500 season in 2006, but in four of the last five years they’ve won three games or less. I compare it to my day at the racetrack last week when I bet nine races and lost all nine—that level of incompetence is very difficult to achieve and we should appreciate it when it comes around. Is there any hope for positive change for the Rams now that Jeff Fischer is in charge? TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the state of football in St. Louis…

OFFENSE: Sam Bradford came through an injury-riddled year in 2011 where he started only ten games. In his third year in the league, Bradford is facing a key crossroads season and he’s doing it with a non-descript group of receivers. St. Louis will run out Austin Pettis, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola , tight end Lance Kendricks and hope someone can catch fire or Bradford can move the ball around effectively.

If the quarterback is going to spread the ball around he’ll need time to scan the field and in that regard young Rodger Saffold on the blind side will have Bradford’s back. The Rams’ line is pretty good across, with Scott Wells at center and Harvey Dahl at right guard. Collectively, these three are all capable of making a Pro Bowl. The downside on this line is that the other two spots are both weak, while Dahl and Wells have moved into their thirties.

Brian Schottenheimer will be running the offense after being let go from the zoo that is the Jets. Like his father, Brian’s offenses are at their best when he’s running the ball and with Stephen Jackson in the backfield he’s got a horse to ride. And I like the draft choice of Isiah Pead out of Cincinnati, a shifty back who can be a nice change of pace.

DEFENSE: This has the chance to be a very exciting group and one that the veteran Fischer can use to turn the franchise around quickly. The front four is led by Chris Long, the defensive end who posted 13 sacks and every spot in the trenches is filled with quality. Robert Quinn is a decent supporting player on the other edge, with five sacks and Kendall Langford is a talented 26-year-old in the trenches. And I love the draft choice of defensive tackle Michael Brockers from LSU, who will get thrust right into the battle.

Overseeing the front four is middle linebacker James Laurinaitis, and although there’s weakness at the other two spots, the combination of a tough front four and good middle linebacker will ensure the Rams don’t get physically whipped.

St. Louis brought in free agent Cortland Finnegan, who instantly transforms the secondary by giving them a lockdown corner, and the team drafted Janoris Jenkins, a potential dark horse on the other side. Quintin Mikell is Pro Bowl-caliber at strong safety, although the team nees to hope for the development of 24-year-old Darian Stewart at free safety.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 6—I like this defense and I respect Fischer, but when a team hasn’t broken three wins four of the last five years, I’m not about to be them to double that total—and doubling it only gets the Rams to a push. I think you have to go Under.

NFL Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks

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The Seattle Seahawks haven’t had a winning season since 2007, even if they did claim the cheapest division title in NFL history, at 7-9 back in the 2010 season. But if the ’10 team was overrated because of its first place finish and upset playoff win over New Orleans, the ’11 team’s 7-9 finish is underrated because they finished the year strong and they have the ability to make the incremental improvement necessary to get in playoff contention. TheSportsNotebook previews the 2012 Seattle Seahawks…

OFFENSE: Seattle made waves in the offseason when they signed free agent quarterback Matt Flynn to a $17 million deal based on two starts during his career backing up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Then the Seahawks made waves again this August when they gave the starting job to third-round draft pick Russell Wilson, fresh off leading Wisconsin to a Big Ten title.

As a Wisconsin fan (though not a Packer fan), I love Wilson for what he did last fall and the fact he seems to be a truly class act off the field. But I have doubts that he can be a regular starter in the NFL. His accuracy isn’t NFL-caliber, nor is his height. He makes an ideal backup, but his earning the job over Flynn makes you wonder just how badly the Seahawks must have misfired in their free agent gamble.

Or perhaps Wilson’s superior mobility is the reason for the change, given the problems on the offensive line. If he’s healthy, Russell Okung is a solid left tackle, but that precondition hasn’t been evident in his young NFL career. Right tackle is a problem regardless, as are the guards. Max Unger at center is the only one who combines durability and consistency, meaning that not only will the quarterback be on the move, but Marshawn Lynch will have to make his own breaks at running back.

If there’s a silver lining in the pass protection problems it’s that the receivers aren’t worth getting the ball tool. Sidney Rice is the one player with talent here, but his questionable with the shoulder and knee problems that have plagued him since his breakout year of 2009. After Rice, Doug Baldwin has hamstring problems and I’m not sold on Golden Tate or Deon Butler.

DEFENSE: After that spiel on the offense you probably wonder why I said at the top that this team can compete for a playoff spot. It’s because of what’s available on this side of the ball. The front four has excellent talent all the way across, and it starts with Chris Clemons who produced 11 sacks at defensive end. Jason Jones and Brandon Mebane  control the interior. On the opposite end is Red Bryant, a 28-year-old who makes me think of the character Morgan Freeman played in Shawshank Redemption. “Why do they call you Red?”, asked Andy Dufresne of Freeman’s character. “Probably because I’m Irish,” the African-American Freeman jokes.

The linebackers are okay—nothing special, but good enough to get by in a 4-3 scheme that’s more dependent on the defensive line. Leroy Holl and K.J. Wright are functionable on the outside, though the middle is a problem.

When he get to the secondary we’re at another area of strength. Richard Sherman is a very talented corner, and the safeties—Karim Chancellor at the strong safety spot, and Earl Thomas patrolling centerfield—are outstanding. The other corner is a weak spot, but between these three, plus the tremendous push they’ll get on the defensive front, Pete Carroll can figure out a way to compensate.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTIONS: 7.5—In spite of my concerns with the offense, I’m taking the over. The defense alone can get this team to seven wins and whether it’s Wilson or Flynn, the Seahawks will still get better quarterback play than they did a year ago. The ceiling isn’t much higher than nine wins, but this team will beat expectations and be in the playoff conversation the last couple weeks.

NFL Team Previews: Chicago Bears

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The Chicago Bears were rolling last season, at 7-3 and looked on their way to the playoffs when Jay Cutler went down for the year. The team didn’t win again until the final week of the season when they were eliminated. The Bears have gone out and fixed the backup quarterback spot and made other notable additions in free agency. Will it translate into a playoff year in a tough division? TheSportsNotebook previews Chicago’s chances…

OFFENSE: Cutler’s durability has been a question mark, and in some quarters his toughness has been called into question. Considering how frequently the guy’s been knocked down in his career, particularly since coming to the Bears for the 2009 season, I think that’s a little unfair. But it underscores the problem this offensive line has with keeping their QB standing upright and why the development of tackles J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi is so vital. Both are 24-years-old, and Carimi missed most of last year with an injury. If they can come through, Chicago fans can breathe a lot easier. But it has to be these two that show the improvement, because the interior of the line is neither young nor talented.

Cutler will have a better complement of weapons to work with. The team went out and got Brandon Marshall, the temperamental receiver who was a productive playmate Cutler when they were both in Denver. They drafted Alshon Jeffrey, a receiver out of South Carolina I like a great deal. These acquisitions enable Devin Hester to slide into his natural role in the offense, which is a #3 man and punt returner. And when it comes to running the ball, the Bears got Michael Bush, one of the best backs on the market last February, to pair up with Matt Forte, who had a lengthy contract dispute and should be motivated to make himself some money on next year’s free agent market.  Finally, Jason Campbell was brought in to be the #2 quarterback. If (when?) Cutler goes down, the season won’t be shot this time around.

DEFENSE: The front seven has been the pride and joy of the Windy City in the Lovie Smith era and Julius Peppers is still going strong at defensive end, recording 18 sacks last year, even as he hits 32-years-old. The team needs Israel Idonjie to be much more productive than he was a year ago, when he only had five sacks. Idonjie, along with tackle Henry Melton, have the talent to make offensive lines pay if their protection schemes orient too heavily to Peppers.

Brian Urlacher’s knee will decide the fate of the linebacking corps and perhaps whether the entire defense can be championship-caliber. Urlacher’s knee has him questionable for the September 9 season opener. Joined with Lance Briggs, he gives the Bears a powerful duo at linebacker. Without him, Chicago is still pretty good in the front seven, but if this team is to hit its potential the defensive line and linebackers have to be great. And they won’t be without a healthy Urlacher.

The front seven has to be great, because the secondary is a problem. While Charles Tillman is a productive corner, the rest of the unit is spotty. The most Bears fans can hope for is that free safety Chris Conte, 23-years-old, makes big improvement this year. Because to have a weakness in centerfield when you play Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford four times a year is begging for trouble.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9.5—Is it inconsistent to say that I like Lovie and like this Bear team, but am still going Under? Let me explain. Since the Super Bowl year of 2006, the Bears have only exceeded nine wins one time, that in 2010. The strength of the division, where I think Chicago trails both Detroit and Green Bay, will make a really big year tough. So while I might pick them for 10-6 next week when I do my final picks, I can’t go any higher than that. And that’s enough wiggle room on the over side. I can see them going 8-8, which allows slightly more room to maneuver with the Under. Furthermore, if Urlacher misses substantial time—hardly an unrealistic thought—then a tough season is in store.

NFL Team Previews: Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins begin a new era this season, as former Green Bay Packers’ offensive coordinator Joe Philbin takes over as the head coach. Since the Dolphins won a surprise AFC East title in 2008, they’ve only produced 20 wins over the last three regular seasons and it got Tony Sparano the pink slip. TheSportsNotebook previews the Dolphins’ chances, as they start a fresh era with a new coach and rookie quarterback.

OFFENSE: Miami made a questionable decision to draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill with the ninth pick in the draft, something I see as a classic case of overreaching just because somebody plays quarterback. And even if you love Tannehill, there is absolutely no receiving talent on this team worth talking about. Basically, Reggie Bush has to carry the load at the skill position spots. He’ll have to carry the running game and be the team’s best receiver. Bush’s multi-purpose talent is unquestioned and he was a 1,000-yard back last year, but that’s an excessive burden for any running back to carry.

At the very least, Tannehill’s blind side is in good hands. Jake Long is one of the best in the business at left tackle, and the team made a sound draft choice at right tackle in Stanford’s Jonathan Martin. Mike Pouncey is a talented young center, so there are good lineman across the trenches, even is guard is a weak point.

DEFENSE: This is a very good front seven and while they’re officially listed as a 4-3 front, the Dolphins can play it with either three men down or four men down, depending on what they want to do with Cameron Wake at defensive end/outside linebacker. Wake had a decent season in 2011, but he was even better in 2010, and needs get back to that high level of rushing the passer. His fellow Penn State alum Jared Odrick is on the other side, and the interior is very good, with tackles Randy Starks and Paul Soliai. Running the ball on Miami is going to be tough and opposing quarterbacks can’t get too comfortable in the pocket.

It doesn’t get any easier for offenses when they get to the second level. Karlos Dansby is a very good football player at middle linebacker, Kevin Burnett is solid on one flank, and 25-year-old Koa Misi can be expected to continue the upward trajectory of his career.

When all is said and done, the Miami front seven better get after the quarterback, because they aren’t getting any help from the secondary. For as good as the front seven is, the back four is just as bad. While Sean Smith is a nice player at one corner he’s not someone who carries a unit and the other three spots are all big problems.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 7—This is a high number. It basically expects the Dolphins to at least maintain their level of the last three years in spite of all the changes. And if you want to cash an Over, they have to improve on that and go 8-8. Hence, the Under pick is very easy here. When you have a team that can’t move the ball and can’t defend the pass, plays with a rookie quarterback and is learning a new system, anything better than 6-10 would be reason to celebrate. And in fact, I think they’ll be worse.

NFL Team Previews: Denver Broncos

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Has any team gotten more headlines at the quarterback position than the Denver Broncos have in the past ten months or so, between Tebow-Mania and the subsequent signing of Peyton Manning. Even coming off a cheap AFC West title at 8-8 and upset playoff win over Pittsburgh, the Broncos are still looking for their first winning season since 2006. TheSportsNotebook previews the chances this Denver team has of breaking that string and seeing if they can ride Peyton’s arm to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998…

OFFENSE: Charged with protecting the blind side of Manning, Ryan Clady has the most important security assignment this side of the Secret Service. Fortunately for Peyton, the 25-year-old Clady is arguably the best left tackle in the NFL. There’s question marks elsewhere on the line, but at least the veteran quarterback will be able to see the pressure coming at him. The development of Orlando Franklin at the left tackle spot will go a long way toward deciding how good this line can be as a whole. Chris Kuper is top-shelf at right guard, with the other two spots being patchwork.

If Franklin comes through, that would give Willis McGahee two good tackles to run over. Though he’s 30 years old and you have to be worried about mileage, McGahee produced nearly 1,200 yards on the ground last season and now opposing defenses can’t key on him.

The receiving talent is fairly pedestrian, but if Manning is healthy and his old self, the combination of Demaryius Thomas stretching the field and Eric Decker as a possession guy will be good enough for the future Hall of Famer to move the ball. Andre Caldwell has untapped potential at the third receiver spot, though the tight end spot is weak, with no reincarnation of Dallas Clark, from Peyton’s Indianapolis days, on hand for the short stuff over the middle.

DEFENSE: Elvis Dumervil keys the defense with his ability to pressure the quarterback and the ability to play down as a defensive end in the 4-3, as he does in this scheme, or to stand up in a 3-4 alignment. Dumervil had 9.5 sacks a year ago and has the capacity to deliver a Defensive Player of the Year type performance. Ty Warren anchors the middle for John Fox’s four-man front.

The linebacking corps is very good, with veteran D.J. Williams and second-year man Von Miller handling the outside spots and each being outstanding. Between Williams and Miller, along with Warren handling duties up front, Fox can cover the problem that is middle linebacker Joe Mays.

Denver lacks strength down the middle, with both safeties, Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore being liabilities, although strong safety Carter is still in just his third year and has a chance to get better. At least the corners are in good hands. The Broncos signed Tracy Porter to play opposite Champ Bailey, who keeps going strong at age 34.

Overall, the defense has good star power, with Dumervil, Warren, Williams, Miller and Bailey. That’s enough for Fox to produce a good overall unit.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 8.5—I was surprised to see the number this low, given the expectations that have followed Manning into town.  Furthermore, the Broncos strong finish last year can’t be attributed all to Tim Tebow—with Fox in his first year, the team was likely to be better in the second half of the season anyway. So even if Peyton does end up missing some games, a 9-7 season is still a realistic shot and if he does start at least 13-14 games, then the Over is a lock. For that reason, I’m going on the high side for the 2012 Denver Broncos.

NFL Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles

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The Philadelphia Eagles took three-quarters of the season to find their bearings in 2011, but when they finally clicked they won their last four games to finish 8-8 and nearly snuck off with the NFC East crown that the almost-as-mediocre New York Giants used to parlay into a Super Bowl title. Which Eagles team will we see in 2012? The dysfunctional group that looked like one of the worst in the NFL? Or the team playing as well as anyone in December? TheSportsNotebook previews Philadelphia…

OFFENSE: The attention is all on Michael Vick for understandable reasons that we’ll get to in a moment. But in the meantime, no one should underestimate just how good this offense is. The skill position talent is tremendous, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant making an excellent receiver trio, and tight end Brent Celek able to make defenses pay if they neglect him. In the backfield, LeSean McCoy has become a Fantasy must-have, prolific in piling up the yardage and able to cash in for touchdowns. Philly has the convoy up front. The interior of the line has tremendous potential—guard Evan Mathis is already a top-level player, while center Jason Kelce and guard Danny Watkins are young lineman on an upward trajectory. The tackles are above average at sealing the edge.

That brings us to Vick. When he’s healthy and running this offense there’s no reason for anyone to stop them. But the “when he’s healthy” is no small disclaimer, given his track record and playing style. Furthermore, there is a tendency toward turnovers, a natural byproduct of the playing style that have to be taken into account. The offense can make enough big plays to counteract the turnovers, but the backup quarterback situation in this organization is almost irresponsible, given the talent on the roster. Are you really going to entrust a Super Bowl contender to Mike Kafka? Rookie Nick Foles could easily be the man of the future, but he should be nowhere near the field this year. Trent Edwards might get it done, but I don’t know why Philly didn’t go after someone like a Kyle Orton—who signed to be a backup in Dallas—who’s proven they can start and at least give you a chance with all this talent.

DEFENSE: Jason Babin was one of the big signings prior to last year that drove the hype-meter through the roof and he delivered, with 18 sacks from his defensive end spot. Trent Cole was solid on the other edge with 11 sacks, giving the Birds a powerful pass-rush duo in the 4-3 scheme. Even defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins got in the act, with 5.5 sacks of his own. Philly can whip anyone in the trenches when it comes to pressuring the quarterback.

Turning the defensive line loose on the pass rush means susceptibility to the run and that’s where the linebackers need to be sure and steady tacklers. Demeco Ryan is just that in the middle, but the flanks are suspect. Philadelphia’s going to depend on Brian Rolle to develop quickly.

The corners are almost as elite as the defensive ends. Nnamdi Asomugha is a lockdown corner on one side, and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie can operate at a very high level himself, even if 2011 was a down year. Nate Coleman is respectable on patrol at free safety. Kurt Coleman needs improvement at strong safety, but improve is exactly what he’s been doing his first two years in the league. Given the quality of the corners and the problems at linebacker, it’s probably more important that Coleman provide run support than cover.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 10—If you look at this lineup on paper, with Vick in it, this is an easy call on the Over. But the Eagles are going to be a tough time to call on this sort of proposition, because no one knows how many games he’ll be healthy. I respect Andy Reid’s ability to coach an offense and the overall talent level to believe they can manage 2-3 games without Vick if necessary and the upside if he stays healthy is without limit. I’ll take the Over.

NFL Team Previews: Minnesota Vikings

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The Minnesota Vikings have been a consistently successful team over the years, so it can easy to forget they‘ve not only never won a Super Bowl, but haven’t even been there since 1976. Well, I suppose if you’re a fan of the team it’s not very easy to forget, but an organization that has gone .500 or better 24 times in the last 34 years is accustomed to success. Therefore, even though they made the tough decision to bottom out last year, dropping to 3-13 in a rebuilding season, you have to think better days are ahead. Whether those days will arrive in 2012 is the focus here at TheSportsNotebook today as we preview the Vikings…

I’m going to break the mold of previous previews, where we broke them into a section for both the offense and defense. Because Minnesota looks to be two different teams, but one the dividing line isn’t offense and defense. In the trenches they look championship-caliber. On the outside and in the playmaking spots they look like they’d be better suited to playing in the Mid-American Conference.

IN THE TRENCHES: I love this offensive line. Rookie left tackle Matt Kalil was, in my view, the best player on the board in last April’s draft. Phil Loadholt is solid at tackle, and more to the point he’s got a name that makes him sound like a football player. John Sullivan is steady at center, and how can I not love an Irish Catholic with a name like this? So as you see, my passion for this line isn’t all football-based. But it’s still a pretty good group, with the guards being the main weak point.  The Viking offensive line would be good enough to block for any competent NFL back, and when healthy, Adrian Peterson is much more than that. Peterson is supposedly going to be back for Week 1 after tearing his ACL at the end of last year, but even if he’s not, Toby Gerhart can at least keep the running game afloat until A.P. is back at full strength.

If you go to the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, it’s even better. Jared Allen had 22 sacks from his defensive end spot and is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Brian Robison generated eight more sacks on the opposite side and Kevin Williams can bring the heat from inside. The linebackers are led by Chad Greenway and round out a good front seven where the middle linebacker spot is the only real weakness.

ON THE OUTSIDE: Percy Harvin is the main target at wide receiver and while he’s talented, he also lacks durability and would be more effective as a #2 target or slot receiver. Jerome Simpson is suspended until Week 4. I’m not sure if that’s a bigger problem than the fact his absence probably doesn’t make any difference. The tight ends are not a factor—Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson both played at Notre Dame. Between them and Sullivan, I have to wonder if somebody at the Vikings is in hock to someone in the athletic department in South Bend.

Antoine Winfield is a quality corner when he’s able to play, but that was only five games last year and at age 35, how much quality is left is a debatable point. Chris Cook is a liability at the other corner, and the safeties are terrible.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 6—I’d really like to go Over, because in my ideal world football success would start with the line play and move outward. But it doesn’t work that way in the NFL, and the incompetence at receiver and defensive back can’t be overlooked. Furthermore, I thought Ponder was an overrated in college and he’s overrated now.** Finally, the division is the toughest in football this year. So I’m going Under.


** It reminds me of the scene in Godfather III where Don Tommasino drives his car up the gate, spots the man who was hired to kill Michael Corleone, makes reference to the man’s past and hisses “You were an assassin then, you’re an assassin now!” If he saw Ponder I’m convinced he would growl that the Florida State quarterback was overrated then and is overrated now. How’s that for an off-the-wall movie tangent put in a Bill Simmons-style footnote?

NFL Team Previews: New York Jets

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It’s possible you’ve heard some training camp reports on the New York Jets this year. Perhaps even possible that you heard Tim Tebow is now a Jet. Those stories have kind of slid under the radar, with the media having the audacity to only give them about 35 percent of all available airtime to cover any topic in sports. But Tebow’s the least of the Jets’ concerns right now as Rex Ryan hopes that his tenure in New York won’t come to an end with an unsuccessful fourth year. With that as the backdrop, TheSportsNotebook previews the Jets’ chances in 2012…

OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez has gone from overrated to underappreciated almost overnight. He always was more of a game-managing quarterback, even when the team made its runs to the AFC Championship Game in 2009-10. Then the Jets decided to try and open things up more and Sanchez was exposed for what he was. But “what we was” was still good enough to win games if you had a good running game and defense around him.

The Jets do have the running game. Shonn Greene is a 1,000 yard back and the offensive line in front of him is anchored by center Nick Mangold, the best in the NFL at his position. D’Brickashaw Ferguson at left tackle and Brandon Moore at right guard are both prime players at their spots. The other two spots are patchwork, but when you have three caliber-offensive linemen you can run the ball and protect the passer.

A lack of quality receivers has been a consistent theme for the Jets in recent years, and the reason they gambled they could integrate Santonio Holmes’ apparently troublesome personality onto their team. That’s an experiment that looks to be blowing up on their face and the team is said to be trying to dump Holmes. There’s no word on whether the Los Angeles Dodgers’ new ownership group will take him off their hands. But when Holmes does leave, the Jets are going to be back to their original problem, which is that the rest of the receivers’ corps is one of the worst in the NFL. At least tight end Dustin Keller is a good target.

DEFENSE: Because of Ryan’s high-voltage personality, his critics might lose sight of what a good coach he is. The fact this team still plays good defense is testament to the boss’ coaching, because the talent level is not very good. Linebackers are at the heart of any 3-4 scheme, and while David Harris and Bart Scott are good on the inside, neither is as good as their reputation and the outside, where big plays have to be made, is a major problem. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas are both on the wrong side of 30 and the age decline is evident in both.

The team has a couple good pieces up front, especially nose tackle Sione Pouha, but here again age is rearing its ugly head. Puha is 33. How long can he keep tying up blockers by taking double and triple-teams? Muhammad Wilkerson is a good young player at one of the end spots.

Any success the defense has is heavily dependent on Darrelle Revis, easily the best corner in football and a playmaker extraordinaire. Antonio Cromartie is on the opposite corner and he could be the #1 cover guy for a playoff team himself.  The secondary would benefit from getting a decent free safety. LaRon Landry is back there right now, but he can be overly aggressive and his playmaking style would better work at the strong safety spot, where Yeremiah Bell gives nothing. A competent centerfielder could displace Bell and strengthen two spots at once.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTIONS: 8.5–By any reasonable measurement, Ryan’s tenure has been a success. He’s won 28 regular season games in three years. His four playoff wins include a road triumph over Peyton Manning and monster upsets on the road in San Diego and New England. But this season has the look of the end of the line. His critics will say it’s because his loud style has finally wore thin. Others will say the Jets’ talent deficiencies never really got fixed (I’m in the latter group). But whatever the reason I see an Under coming in here.

NFL Team Previews: New England Patriots

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The record is staggering during the era of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for the New England Patriots. In the eleven seasons since 2001, they’ve averaged a 12 wins each regular season. They’ve produced nine AFC East titles, five AFC championships and three Super Bowl rings. Brady is 35 years old. How much longer can the beat go on? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Patriots…

OFFENSE: Brady’s excellence is unparalleled and I consider him to be the top quarterback of my lifetime, which we’ll start in the late 1970s, when I can actually remember the players. The supporting cast around him is not bad, but it doesn’t exactly conjure up memories of the Montana-era 49ers. The interior of the New England offensive line, save for guard Logan Mankins is suspect and vulnerable to gut pressure. The tackles are decent, but not spectacular and right tackle Nate Solder needs to have some natural second-year improvement.

The shaky offensive line, which has not inspired confidence in its preseason games this year, would make deep drops and getting the ball down the field problematic as it is. But it might not matter, because unless free-agent wide receiver Brandon Lloyd comes through, the Pats don’t have anyone can stretch the field. Well, I suppose Rob Gronkowski can, but as good as “Gronk” is, when the tight end is your primary deep threat I think that alone speaks volumes.

What New England does have is a good collection of players who can run routes underneath and a quarterback who can quickly find them with precision. Wes Welker is probably in his last year in Foxboro after not agreeing to a contract extension, but that also means he’ll be motivated to earn himself big money. Gronkowski is money in short-to-mid-range spots. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez is effective in the short game, as is veteran receiver Deion Branch. It’s a lot of pressure to have to create open receivers in a confined space with limited pass protection, but the Pats have the volume and it doesn’t take much open space for Brady to get them the ball.

The short passing game has served as the New England running game the past few years and with the issues on the offensive line I see little reason to think there will be a change. I’ve got nothing against Stevan Ridely, the main back, but he’s not to going to carry a questionable line.

DEFENSE: New England addressed the defense in this year’s draft, using both of their first-round picks on this side of the ball and between the draft and free agency they addressed all three levels of the D. Belichick is currently aligned in a 4-3, which is a break from his background in the 3-4, both in his coordinator days under Bill Parcells and most of his tenure in New England. The drafting of defensive end Chandler Jones to rush the passer likely means the 4-3 is here to stay. Vince Wolfork anchors the middle as well as anyone, but at 30-years-old, the Pats have to be worried about the mileage on his body.

Dont’a Hightower from Alabama was the big draft-day prize at linebacker and he’ll join with young Jerrod Mayo to make a solid tandem on the flanks of the 4-3. Brandon Spikes is in the middle and while he’s not a standout, he’s at least competent and he’s still young enough to think improvement is on the way.

The corners are decent with Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington, and there’s room for each to get better, especially McCourty. Patrick Chung is an asset at strong safety. The Pats went out and got veteran Steve Gregory from San Diego to play free safety, but the folks at ESPN’s Scouts Inc, who grade these players aren’t particularly impressed with the former Charger. If they’re right, that leaves a lot of pressure on the corners not to get beat.

Overall, this is a defense with some decent pieces, but they need a real star to step forward, one who forces offenses to change their gameplans. Jones is the best hope for that happening this year. In the meantime, Pats fans can settle for the fact that the head coach orchestrating all this pieces is a star in his own right.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 12.5—As I said about the Green Bay Packers, the other team with a number this high, I feel I have to go Under just automatically. A lot has to go right for any team to have a 13-3 season and if that’s the minimum, that’s too much to bet on in August. Furthermore, I don’t think the Patriots are a 13-3 caliber team anyway. They reached the number last year, but somewhere along the line somebody on the defensive side and in the offensive front needs to really step up and excel. In reality, this is the kind of team I’d normally slot at nine wins, but the Belichick-Brady tandem alone grabs a couple extra W’s. Either way, that still leaves them Under.

NFL Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

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Since Atlanta Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith came to town in 2008, the city has been given a football winner. The Falcons have won 43 games over the last four regular seasons, they’ve been to the playoffs three times and won the NFC South once. But one thing is missing and that’s a postseason victory. Can Atlanta make 2012 the year they continue the success of the Smith era and then build on it with January success? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Atlanta Falcons…

OFFENSE: This team’s skill position talent is fit for a Fantasy League, with Matt Ryan settled in on the second tier of quarterbacks, right below the elite of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Ryan has premier targets in Roddy White and Julio Jones, who can catch the ball on possession-type routes and also stretch the field. 36-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez still has gas in the tank, and produced 875 receiving yards last year. Michael Turner is now 30-years-old at running back, but he’s still as good as anyone at running between the tackles and making the first man miss. Then add in the fact that all this talent plays in a nice climate-controlled dome and you have the formula for a lot of points.

It’s getting the blocking to enable these playmakers to work their magic that’s going to be Smith’s challenge. The Atlanta offensive line is spotty, soft at the left tackle spot and a problem at one of the guards. The players they have that are good—veteran center Todd McClure, left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo aren’t outstanding. So you have a line with no obvious strengths and some clear weaknesses.

DEFENSE: The defense has two obvious strengths and in a passing-oriented league, it doesn’t get much better than having a potentially great front four and two outstanding corners. Atlanta needs Ray Edwards to step it up at defensive end after a disappointing ’11 season where he registered just 3.5 sacks, but Edwards is only 27-years-old and should be able to bounce back. You can pair him up with John Abraham, another fine pass rusher at the opposite end. Then Justin Babineaux can bring pressure from the interior. Even the one soft spot, tackle Corey Peters, is only 24 and can make strides forward this season. On the corners, you’ve got Brent Grimes and new acquisition Asante Samuel, each able to cover man on man.

When you have these kinds of playmakers at the key spots, it becomes much easier to fill in the other spots. Sean Witherspoon does a nice job getting pressure from his weakside linebacker post, and there’s basic competence at safety from William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. The spot it would be nice to see improvement at would be middle linebacker, where Akeem Dent is 24-years-old and still developing his ability to read, react and cover at an NFL level.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9—I’m got some trepidations over the Falcons this year. Last year’s playoff flameout, a 24-2 loss in New York, was a big disappointment and you wonder if there comes a point where the postseason disappointments become a psychological burden in the regular season. But if you look at the talent on hand, Atlanta’s got the horses and that same disappointment can also be a motivator. I’m going Over.

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