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NFL Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks

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The Seattle Seahawks haven’t had a winning season since 2007, even if they did claim the cheapest division title in NFL history, at 7-9 back in the 2010 season. But if the ’10 team was overrated because of its first place finish and upset playoff win over New Orleans, the ’11 team’s 7-9 finish is underrated because they finished the year strong and they have the ability to make the incremental improvement necessary to get in playoff contention. TheSportsNotebook previews the 2012 Seattle Seahawks…

OFFENSE: Seattle made waves in the offseason when they signed free agent quarterback Matt Flynn to a $17 million deal based on two starts during his career backing up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Then the Seahawks made waves again this August when they gave the starting job to third-round draft pick Russell Wilson, fresh off leading Wisconsin to a Big Ten title.

As a Wisconsin fan (though not a Packer fan), I love Wilson for what he did last fall and the fact he seems to be a truly class act off the field. But I have doubts that he can be a regular starter in the NFL. His accuracy isn’t NFL-caliber, nor is his height. He makes an ideal backup, but his earning the job over Flynn makes you wonder just how badly the Seahawks must have misfired in their free agent gamble.

Or perhaps Wilson’s superior mobility is the reason for the change, given the problems on the offensive line. If he’s healthy, Russell Okung is a solid left tackle, but that precondition hasn’t been evident in his young NFL career. Right tackle is a problem regardless, as are the guards. Max Unger at center is the only one who combines durability and consistency, meaning that not only will the quarterback be on the move, but Marshawn Lynch will have to make his own breaks at running back.

If there’s a silver lining in the pass protection problems it’s that the receivers aren’t worth getting the ball tool. Sidney Rice is the one player with talent here, but his questionable with the shoulder and knee problems that have plagued him since his breakout year of 2009. After Rice, Doug Baldwin has hamstring problems and I’m not sold on Golden Tate or Deon Butler.

DEFENSE: After that spiel on the offense you probably wonder why I said at the top that this team can compete for a playoff spot. It’s because of what’s available on this side of the ball. The front four has excellent talent all the way across, and it starts with Chris Clemons who produced 11 sacks at defensive end. Jason Jones and Brandon Mebane  control the interior. On the opposite end is Red Bryant, a 28-year-old who makes me think of the character Morgan Freeman played in Shawshank Redemption. “Why do they call you Red?”, asked Andy Dufresne of Freeman’s character. “Probably because I’m Irish,” the African-American Freeman jokes.

The linebackers are okay—nothing special, but good enough to get by in a 4-3 scheme that’s more dependent on the defensive line. Leroy Holl and K.J. Wright are functionable on the outside, though the middle is a problem.

When he get to the secondary we’re at another area of strength. Richard Sherman is a very talented corner, and the safeties—Karim Chancellor at the strong safety spot, and Earl Thomas patrolling centerfield—are outstanding. The other corner is a weak spot, but between these three, plus the tremendous push they’ll get on the defensive front, Pete Carroll can figure out a way to compensate.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTIONS: 7.5—In spite of my concerns with the offense, I’m taking the over. The defense alone can get this team to seven wins and whether it’s Wilson or Flynn, the Seahawks will still get better quarterback play than they did a year ago. The ceiling isn’t much higher than nine wins, but this team will beat expectations and be in the playoff conversation the last couple weeks.

NFL Team Previews: Chicago Bears

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The Chicago Bears were rolling last season, at 7-3 and looked on their way to the playoffs when Jay Cutler went down for the year. The team didn’t win again until the final week of the season when they were eliminated. The Bears have gone out and fixed the backup quarterback spot and made other notable additions in free agency. Will it translate into a playoff year in a tough division? TheSportsNotebook previews Chicago’s chances…

OFFENSE: Cutler’s durability has been a question mark, and in some quarters his toughness has been called into question. Considering how frequently the guy’s been knocked down in his career, particularly since coming to the Bears for the 2009 season, I think that’s a little unfair. But it underscores the problem this offensive line has with keeping their QB standing upright and why the development of tackles J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi is so vital. Both are 24-years-old, and Carimi missed most of last year with an injury. If they can come through, Chicago fans can breathe a lot easier. But it has to be these two that show the improvement, because the interior of the line is neither young nor talented.

Cutler will have a better complement of weapons to work with. The team went out and got Brandon Marshall, the temperamental receiver who was a productive playmate Cutler when they were both in Denver. They drafted Alshon Jeffrey, a receiver out of South Carolina I like a great deal. These acquisitions enable Devin Hester to slide into his natural role in the offense, which is a #3 man and punt returner. And when it comes to running the ball, the Bears got Michael Bush, one of the best backs on the market last February, to pair up with Matt Forte, who had a lengthy contract dispute and should be motivated to make himself some money on next year’s free agent market.  Finally, Jason Campbell was brought in to be the #2 quarterback. If (when?) Cutler goes down, the season won’t be shot this time around.

DEFENSE: The front seven has been the pride and joy of the Windy City in the Lovie Smith era and Julius Peppers is still going strong at defensive end, recording 18 sacks last year, even as he hits 32-years-old. The team needs Israel Idonjie to be much more productive than he was a year ago, when he only had five sacks. Idonjie, along with tackle Henry Melton, have the talent to make offensive lines pay if their protection schemes orient too heavily to Peppers.

Brian Urlacher’s knee will decide the fate of the linebacking corps and perhaps whether the entire defense can be championship-caliber. Urlacher’s knee has him questionable for the September 9 season opener. Joined with Lance Briggs, he gives the Bears a powerful duo at linebacker. Without him, Chicago is still pretty good in the front seven, but if this team is to hit its potential the defensive line and linebackers have to be great. And they won’t be without a healthy Urlacher.

The front seven has to be great, because the secondary is a problem. While Charles Tillman is a productive corner, the rest of the unit is spotty. The most Bears fans can hope for is that free safety Chris Conte, 23-years-old, makes big improvement this year. Because to have a weakness in centerfield when you play Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford four times a year is begging for trouble.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9.5—Is it inconsistent to say that I like Lovie and like this Bear team, but am still going Under? Let me explain. Since the Super Bowl year of 2006, the Bears have only exceeded nine wins one time, that in 2010. The strength of the division, where I think Chicago trails both Detroit and Green Bay, will make a really big year tough. So while I might pick them for 10-6 next week when I do my final picks, I can’t go any higher than that. And that’s enough wiggle room on the over side. I can see them going 8-8, which allows slightly more room to maneuver with the Under. Furthermore, if Urlacher misses substantial time—hardly an unrealistic thought—then a tough season is in store.

NFL Team Previews: Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins begin a new era this season, as former Green Bay Packers’ offensive coordinator Joe Philbin takes over as the head coach. Since the Dolphins won a surprise AFC East title in 2008, they’ve only produced 20 wins over the last three regular seasons and it got Tony Sparano the pink slip. TheSportsNotebook previews the Dolphins’ chances, as they start a fresh era with a new coach and rookie quarterback.

OFFENSE: Miami made a questionable decision to draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill with the ninth pick in the draft, something I see as a classic case of overreaching just because somebody plays quarterback. And even if you love Tannehill, there is absolutely no receiving talent on this team worth talking about. Basically, Reggie Bush has to carry the load at the skill position spots. He’ll have to carry the running game and be the team’s best receiver. Bush’s multi-purpose talent is unquestioned and he was a 1,000-yard back last year, but that’s an excessive burden for any running back to carry.

At the very least, Tannehill’s blind side is in good hands. Jake Long is one of the best in the business at left tackle, and the team made a sound draft choice at right tackle in Stanford’s Jonathan Martin. Mike Pouncey is a talented young center, so there are good lineman across the trenches, even is guard is a weak point.

DEFENSE: This is a very good front seven and while they’re officially listed as a 4-3 front, the Dolphins can play it with either three men down or four men down, depending on what they want to do with Cameron Wake at defensive end/outside linebacker. Wake had a decent season in 2011, but he was even better in 2010, and needs get back to that high level of rushing the passer. His fellow Penn State alum Jared Odrick is on the other side, and the interior is very good, with tackles Randy Starks and Paul Soliai. Running the ball on Miami is going to be tough and opposing quarterbacks can’t get too comfortable in the pocket.

It doesn’t get any easier for offenses when they get to the second level. Karlos Dansby is a very good football player at middle linebacker, Kevin Burnett is solid on one flank, and 25-year-old Koa Misi can be expected to continue the upward trajectory of his career.

When all is said and done, the Miami front seven better get after the quarterback, because they aren’t getting any help from the secondary. For as good as the front seven is, the back four is just as bad. While Sean Smith is a nice player at one corner he’s not someone who carries a unit and the other three spots are all big problems.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 7—This is a high number. It basically expects the Dolphins to at least maintain their level of the last three years in spite of all the changes. And if you want to cash an Over, they have to improve on that and go 8-8. Hence, the Under pick is very easy here. When you have a team that can’t move the ball and can’t defend the pass, plays with a rookie quarterback and is learning a new system, anything better than 6-10 would be reason to celebrate. And in fact, I think they’ll be worse.

NFL Team Previews: Denver Broncos

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Has any team gotten more headlines at the quarterback position than the Denver Broncos have in the past ten months or so, between Tebow-Mania and the subsequent signing of Peyton Manning. Even coming off a cheap AFC West title at 8-8 and upset playoff win over Pittsburgh, the Broncos are still looking for their first winning season since 2006. TheSportsNotebook previews the chances this Denver team has of breaking that string and seeing if they can ride Peyton’s arm to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998…

OFFENSE: Charged with protecting the blind side of Manning, Ryan Clady has the most important security assignment this side of the Secret Service. Fortunately for Peyton, the 25-year-old Clady is arguably the best left tackle in the NFL. There’s question marks elsewhere on the line, but at least the veteran quarterback will be able to see the pressure coming at him. The development of Orlando Franklin at the left tackle spot will go a long way toward deciding how good this line can be as a whole. Chris Kuper is top-shelf at right guard, with the other two spots being patchwork.

If Franklin comes through, that would give Willis McGahee two good tackles to run over. Though he’s 30 years old and you have to be worried about mileage, McGahee produced nearly 1,200 yards on the ground last season and now opposing defenses can’t key on him.

The receiving talent is fairly pedestrian, but if Manning is healthy and his old self, the combination of Demaryius Thomas stretching the field and Eric Decker as a possession guy will be good enough for the future Hall of Famer to move the ball. Andre Caldwell has untapped potential at the third receiver spot, though the tight end spot is weak, with no reincarnation of Dallas Clark, from Peyton’s Indianapolis days, on hand for the short stuff over the middle.

DEFENSE: Elvis Dumervil keys the defense with his ability to pressure the quarterback and the ability to play down as a defensive end in the 4-3, as he does in this scheme, or to stand up in a 3-4 alignment. Dumervil had 9.5 sacks a year ago and has the capacity to deliver a Defensive Player of the Year type performance. Ty Warren anchors the middle for John Fox’s four-man front.

The linebacking corps is very good, with veteran D.J. Williams and second-year man Von Miller handling the outside spots and each being outstanding. Between Williams and Miller, along with Warren handling duties up front, Fox can cover the problem that is middle linebacker Joe Mays.

Denver lacks strength down the middle, with both safeties, Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore being liabilities, although strong safety Carter is still in just his third year and has a chance to get better. At least the corners are in good hands. The Broncos signed Tracy Porter to play opposite Champ Bailey, who keeps going strong at age 34.

Overall, the defense has good star power, with Dumervil, Warren, Williams, Miller and Bailey. That’s enough for Fox to produce a good overall unit.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 8.5—I was surprised to see the number this low, given the expectations that have followed Manning into town.  Furthermore, the Broncos strong finish last year can’t be attributed all to Tim Tebow—with Fox in his first year, the team was likely to be better in the second half of the season anyway. So even if Peyton does end up missing some games, a 9-7 season is still a realistic shot and if he does start at least 13-14 games, then the Over is a lock. For that reason, I’m going on the high side for the 2012 Denver Broncos.

NFL Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles

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The Philadelphia Eagles took three-quarters of the season to find their bearings in 2011, but when they finally clicked they won their last four games to finish 8-8 and nearly snuck off with the NFC East crown that the almost-as-mediocre New York Giants used to parlay into a Super Bowl title. Which Eagles team will we see in 2012? The dysfunctional group that looked like one of the worst in the NFL? Or the team playing as well as anyone in December? TheSportsNotebook previews Philadelphia…

OFFENSE: The attention is all on Michael Vick for understandable reasons that we’ll get to in a moment. But in the meantime, no one should underestimate just how good this offense is. The skill position talent is tremendous, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant making an excellent receiver trio, and tight end Brent Celek able to make defenses pay if they neglect him. In the backfield, LeSean McCoy has become a Fantasy must-have, prolific in piling up the yardage and able to cash in for touchdowns. Philly has the convoy up front. The interior of the line has tremendous potential—guard Evan Mathis is already a top-level player, while center Jason Kelce and guard Danny Watkins are young lineman on an upward trajectory. The tackles are above average at sealing the edge.

That brings us to Vick. When he’s healthy and running this offense there’s no reason for anyone to stop them. But the “when he’s healthy” is no small disclaimer, given his track record and playing style. Furthermore, there is a tendency toward turnovers, a natural byproduct of the playing style that have to be taken into account. The offense can make enough big plays to counteract the turnovers, but the backup quarterback situation in this organization is almost irresponsible, given the talent on the roster. Are you really going to entrust a Super Bowl contender to Mike Kafka? Rookie Nick Foles could easily be the man of the future, but he should be nowhere near the field this year. Trent Edwards might get it done, but I don’t know why Philly didn’t go after someone like a Kyle Orton—who signed to be a backup in Dallas—who’s proven they can start and at least give you a chance with all this talent.

DEFENSE: Jason Babin was one of the big signings prior to last year that drove the hype-meter through the roof and he delivered, with 18 sacks from his defensive end spot. Trent Cole was solid on the other edge with 11 sacks, giving the Birds a powerful pass-rush duo in the 4-3 scheme. Even defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins got in the act, with 5.5 sacks of his own. Philly can whip anyone in the trenches when it comes to pressuring the quarterback.

Turning the defensive line loose on the pass rush means susceptibility to the run and that’s where the linebackers need to be sure and steady tacklers. Demeco Ryan is just that in the middle, but the flanks are suspect. Philadelphia’s going to depend on Brian Rolle to develop quickly.

The corners are almost as elite as the defensive ends. Nnamdi Asomugha is a lockdown corner on one side, and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie can operate at a very high level himself, even if 2011 was a down year. Nate Coleman is respectable on patrol at free safety. Kurt Coleman needs improvement at strong safety, but improve is exactly what he’s been doing his first two years in the league. Given the quality of the corners and the problems at linebacker, it’s probably more important that Coleman provide run support than cover.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 10—If you look at this lineup on paper, with Vick in it, this is an easy call on the Over. But the Eagles are going to be a tough time to call on this sort of proposition, because no one knows how many games he’ll be healthy. I respect Andy Reid’s ability to coach an offense and the overall talent level to believe they can manage 2-3 games without Vick if necessary and the upside if he stays healthy is without limit. I’ll take the Over.

NFL Team Previews: Minnesota Vikings

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The Minnesota Vikings have been a consistently successful team over the years, so it can easy to forget they‘ve not only never won a Super Bowl, but haven’t even been there since 1976. Well, I suppose if you’re a fan of the team it’s not very easy to forget, but an organization that has gone .500 or better 24 times in the last 34 years is accustomed to success. Therefore, even though they made the tough decision to bottom out last year, dropping to 3-13 in a rebuilding season, you have to think better days are ahead. Whether those days will arrive in 2012 is the focus here at TheSportsNotebook today as we preview the Vikings…

I’m going to break the mold of previous previews, where we broke them into a section for both the offense and defense. Because Minnesota looks to be two different teams, but one the dividing line isn’t offense and defense. In the trenches they look championship-caliber. On the outside and in the playmaking spots they look like they’d be better suited to playing in the Mid-American Conference.

IN THE TRENCHES: I love this offensive line. Rookie left tackle Matt Kalil was, in my view, the best player on the board in last April’s draft. Phil Loadholt is solid at tackle, and more to the point he’s got a name that makes him sound like a football player. John Sullivan is steady at center, and how can I not love an Irish Catholic with a name like this? So as you see, my passion for this line isn’t all football-based. But it’s still a pretty good group, with the guards being the main weak point.  The Viking offensive line would be good enough to block for any competent NFL back, and when healthy, Adrian Peterson is much more than that. Peterson is supposedly going to be back for Week 1 after tearing his ACL at the end of last year, but even if he’s not, Toby Gerhart can at least keep the running game afloat until A.P. is back at full strength.

If you go to the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, it’s even better. Jared Allen had 22 sacks from his defensive end spot and is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Brian Robison generated eight more sacks on the opposite side and Kevin Williams can bring the heat from inside. The linebackers are led by Chad Greenway and round out a good front seven where the middle linebacker spot is the only real weakness.

ON THE OUTSIDE: Percy Harvin is the main target at wide receiver and while he’s talented, he also lacks durability and would be more effective as a #2 target or slot receiver. Jerome Simpson is suspended until Week 4. I’m not sure if that’s a bigger problem than the fact his absence probably doesn’t make any difference. The tight ends are not a factor—Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson both played at Notre Dame. Between them and Sullivan, I have to wonder if somebody at the Vikings is in hock to someone in the athletic department in South Bend.

Antoine Winfield is a quality corner when he’s able to play, but that was only five games last year and at age 35, how much quality is left is a debatable point. Chris Cook is a liability at the other corner, and the safeties are terrible.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 6—I’d really like to go Over, because in my ideal world football success would start with the line play and move outward. But it doesn’t work that way in the NFL, and the incompetence at receiver and defensive back can’t be overlooked. Furthermore, I thought Ponder was an overrated in college and he’s overrated now.** Finally, the division is the toughest in football this year. So I’m going Under.


** It reminds me of the scene in Godfather III where Don Tommasino drives his car up the gate, spots the man who was hired to kill Michael Corleone, makes reference to the man’s past and hisses “You were an assassin then, you’re an assassin now!” If he saw Ponder I’m convinced he would growl that the Florida State quarterback was overrated then and is overrated now. How’s that for an off-the-wall movie tangent put in a Bill Simmons-style footnote?

NFL Team Previews: New York Jets

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It’s possible you’ve heard some training camp reports on the New York Jets this year. Perhaps even possible that you heard Tim Tebow is now a Jet. Those stories have kind of slid under the radar, with the media having the audacity to only give them about 35 percent of all available airtime to cover any topic in sports. But Tebow’s the least of the Jets’ concerns right now as Rex Ryan hopes that his tenure in New York won’t come to an end with an unsuccessful fourth year. With that as the backdrop, TheSportsNotebook previews the Jets’ chances in 2012…

OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez has gone from overrated to underappreciated almost overnight. He always was more of a game-managing quarterback, even when the team made its runs to the AFC Championship Game in 2009-10. Then the Jets decided to try and open things up more and Sanchez was exposed for what he was. But “what we was” was still good enough to win games if you had a good running game and defense around him.

The Jets do have the running game. Shonn Greene is a 1,000 yard back and the offensive line in front of him is anchored by center Nick Mangold, the best in the NFL at his position. D’Brickashaw Ferguson at left tackle and Brandon Moore at right guard are both prime players at their spots. The other two spots are patchwork, but when you have three caliber-offensive linemen you can run the ball and protect the passer.

A lack of quality receivers has been a consistent theme for the Jets in recent years, and the reason they gambled they could integrate Santonio Holmes’ apparently troublesome personality onto their team. That’s an experiment that looks to be blowing up on their face and the team is said to be trying to dump Holmes. There’s no word on whether the Los Angeles Dodgers’ new ownership group will take him off their hands. But when Holmes does leave, the Jets are going to be back to their original problem, which is that the rest of the receivers’ corps is one of the worst in the NFL. At least tight end Dustin Keller is a good target.

DEFENSE: Because of Ryan’s high-voltage personality, his critics might lose sight of what a good coach he is. The fact this team still plays good defense is testament to the boss’ coaching, because the talent level is not very good. Linebackers are at the heart of any 3-4 scheme, and while David Harris and Bart Scott are good on the inside, neither is as good as their reputation and the outside, where big plays have to be made, is a major problem. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas are both on the wrong side of 30 and the age decline is evident in both.

The team has a couple good pieces up front, especially nose tackle Sione Pouha, but here again age is rearing its ugly head. Puha is 33. How long can he keep tying up blockers by taking double and triple-teams? Muhammad Wilkerson is a good young player at one of the end spots.

Any success the defense has is heavily dependent on Darrelle Revis, easily the best corner in football and a playmaker extraordinaire. Antonio Cromartie is on the opposite corner and he could be the #1 cover guy for a playoff team himself.  The secondary would benefit from getting a decent free safety. LaRon Landry is back there right now, but he can be overly aggressive and his playmaking style would better work at the strong safety spot, where Yeremiah Bell gives nothing. A competent centerfielder could displace Bell and strengthen two spots at once.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTIONS: 8.5–By any reasonable measurement, Ryan’s tenure has been a success. He’s won 28 regular season games in three years. His four playoff wins include a road triumph over Peyton Manning and monster upsets on the road in San Diego and New England. But this season has the look of the end of the line. His critics will say it’s because his loud style has finally wore thin. Others will say the Jets’ talent deficiencies never really got fixed (I’m in the latter group). But whatever the reason I see an Under coming in here.

NFL Team Previews: New England Patriots

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The record is staggering during the era of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for the New England Patriots. In the eleven seasons since 2001, they’ve averaged a 12 wins each regular season. They’ve produced nine AFC East titles, five AFC championships and three Super Bowl rings. Brady is 35 years old. How much longer can the beat go on? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Patriots…

OFFENSE: Brady’s excellence is unparalleled and I consider him to be the top quarterback of my lifetime, which we’ll start in the late 1970s, when I can actually remember the players. The supporting cast around him is not bad, but it doesn’t exactly conjure up memories of the Montana-era 49ers. The interior of the New England offensive line, save for guard Logan Mankins is suspect and vulnerable to gut pressure. The tackles are decent, but not spectacular and right tackle Nate Solder needs to have some natural second-year improvement.

The shaky offensive line, which has not inspired confidence in its preseason games this year, would make deep drops and getting the ball down the field problematic as it is. But it might not matter, because unless free-agent wide receiver Brandon Lloyd comes through, the Pats don’t have anyone can stretch the field. Well, I suppose Rob Gronkowski can, but as good as “Gronk” is, when the tight end is your primary deep threat I think that alone speaks volumes.

What New England does have is a good collection of players who can run routes underneath and a quarterback who can quickly find them with precision. Wes Welker is probably in his last year in Foxboro after not agreeing to a contract extension, but that also means he’ll be motivated to earn himself big money. Gronkowski is money in short-to-mid-range spots. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez is effective in the short game, as is veteran receiver Deion Branch. It’s a lot of pressure to have to create open receivers in a confined space with limited pass protection, but the Pats have the volume and it doesn’t take much open space for Brady to get them the ball.

The short passing game has served as the New England running game the past few years and with the issues on the offensive line I see little reason to think there will be a change. I’ve got nothing against Stevan Ridely, the main back, but he’s not to going to carry a questionable line.

DEFENSE: New England addressed the defense in this year’s draft, using both of their first-round picks on this side of the ball and between the draft and free agency they addressed all three levels of the D. Belichick is currently aligned in a 4-3, which is a break from his background in the 3-4, both in his coordinator days under Bill Parcells and most of his tenure in New England. The drafting of defensive end Chandler Jones to rush the passer likely means the 4-3 is here to stay. Vince Wolfork anchors the middle as well as anyone, but at 30-years-old, the Pats have to be worried about the mileage on his body.

Dont’a Hightower from Alabama was the big draft-day prize at linebacker and he’ll join with young Jerrod Mayo to make a solid tandem on the flanks of the 4-3. Brandon Spikes is in the middle and while he’s not a standout, he’s at least competent and he’s still young enough to think improvement is on the way.

The corners are decent with Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington, and there’s room for each to get better, especially McCourty. Patrick Chung is an asset at strong safety. The Pats went out and got veteran Steve Gregory from San Diego to play free safety, but the folks at ESPN’s Scouts Inc, who grade these players aren’t particularly impressed with the former Charger. If they’re right, that leaves a lot of pressure on the corners not to get beat.

Overall, this is a defense with some decent pieces, but they need a real star to step forward, one who forces offenses to change their gameplans. Jones is the best hope for that happening this year. In the meantime, Pats fans can settle for the fact that the head coach orchestrating all this pieces is a star in his own right.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 12.5—As I said about the Green Bay Packers, the other team with a number this high, I feel I have to go Under just automatically. A lot has to go right for any team to have a 13-3 season and if that’s the minimum, that’s too much to bet on in August. Furthermore, I don’t think the Patriots are a 13-3 caliber team anyway. They reached the number last year, but somewhere along the line somebody on the defensive side and in the offensive front needs to really step up and excel. In reality, this is the kind of team I’d normally slot at nine wins, but the Belichick-Brady tandem alone grabs a couple extra W’s. Either way, that still leaves them Under.

NFL Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

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Since Atlanta Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith came to town in 2008, the city has been given a football winner. The Falcons have won 43 games over the last four regular seasons, they’ve been to the playoffs three times and won the NFC South once. But one thing is missing and that’s a postseason victory. Can Atlanta make 2012 the year they continue the success of the Smith era and then build on it with January success? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Atlanta Falcons…

OFFENSE: This team’s skill position talent is fit for a Fantasy League, with Matt Ryan settled in on the second tier of quarterbacks, right below the elite of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Ryan has premier targets in Roddy White and Julio Jones, who can catch the ball on possession-type routes and also stretch the field. 36-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez still has gas in the tank, and produced 875 receiving yards last year. Michael Turner is now 30-years-old at running back, but he’s still as good as anyone at running between the tackles and making the first man miss. Then add in the fact that all this talent plays in a nice climate-controlled dome and you have the formula for a lot of points.

It’s getting the blocking to enable these playmakers to work their magic that’s going to be Smith’s challenge. The Atlanta offensive line is spotty, soft at the left tackle spot and a problem at one of the guards. The players they have that are good—veteran center Todd McClure, left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo aren’t outstanding. So you have a line with no obvious strengths and some clear weaknesses.

DEFENSE: The defense has two obvious strengths and in a passing-oriented league, it doesn’t get much better than having a potentially great front four and two outstanding corners. Atlanta needs Ray Edwards to step it up at defensive end after a disappointing ’11 season where he registered just 3.5 sacks, but Edwards is only 27-years-old and should be able to bounce back. You can pair him up with John Abraham, another fine pass rusher at the opposite end. Then Justin Babineaux can bring pressure from the interior. Even the one soft spot, tackle Corey Peters, is only 24 and can make strides forward this season. On the corners, you’ve got Brent Grimes and new acquisition Asante Samuel, each able to cover man on man.

When you have these kinds of playmakers at the key spots, it becomes much easier to fill in the other spots. Sean Witherspoon does a nice job getting pressure from his weakside linebacker post, and there’s basic competence at safety from William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. The spot it would be nice to see improvement at would be middle linebacker, where Akeem Dent is 24-years-old and still developing his ability to read, react and cover at an NFL level.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9—I’m got some trepidations over the Falcons this year. Last year’s playoff flameout, a 24-2 loss in New York, was a big disappointment and you wonder if there comes a point where the postseason disappointments become a psychological burden in the regular season. But if you look at the talent on hand, Atlanta’s got the horses and that same disappointment can also be a motivator. I’m going Over.

NFL Team Previews: Tennessee Titans

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The Tennessee Titans hung into the playoff race to the very end a year ago and won nine games in the first year of the post-Jeff Fischer era. Now the question is, with Indianapolis and Jacksonville seemingly down, can head coach Mike Munchak continue to keep Tennessee as the prime challenger to Houston in the AFC South, and this time sneak out a postseason spot. TheSportsNotebook looks at the questions of how we’ll remember the Titans when the 2012 season is over…

OFFENSE: Munchak is handing the keys to the offense to Jake Locker, the touted second-year man from Washington who has the talent and helped lead an otherwise mediocre college team into bowl games. But Locker also had consistency issues at the college level and there’s no reason to think the same won’t be true as he steps into the role of NFL starter. Tennessee has veteran Matt Hasselbeck as an insurance policy, but given that Hasselbeck can still start, or backup on a Super Bowl contender, the Titans might be enticed to trade him (a place like Arizona as a starter or Green Bay as a backup are logical)

Locker can be secure in that the edge of the pocket will be well-protected, with left tackle Michael Roos being one of the best in the game and right tackle David Stewart not far behind. The interior of the offensive line is a little messy. Steve Hutchinson is still a quality guard at age 34, but the other two spots could use some improvement.

What will help the new quarterback most of all is that running back Chris Johnson is in camp from the outset. Johnson, one of the NFL’s top rushers, held out last year and that’s even after the opening of camps were delayed because of the lockout. Johnson dealt with nagging injuries as a result and while he still rushed for 1,000 yards, he wasn’t the type of game-controlling back he’d been prior. I think we can expect to see the old Johnson back in 2012.

Another big boost to the offense will be the return of Kenny Britt. He’s likely to be ready to open the year after a knee injury early last season cost the team it’s best big-play threat and probably cost them a playoff spot. Britt likely faces an early suspension for a DUI, but he’ll be on the field before September is out. His return allows Nate Washington to settle into the #2 receiver spot, where he’s very effective. For the passing game to reach its full potential, Tennessee needs #3 receiver Damian Williams to get his techniques and mechanics  under control and fulfill the potential he showed at Southern Cal.

DEFENSE: The Titans didn’t get a pass rush from their defensive line a year ago, a killer problem in a 4-3 front, so they’ve made some changes. Kamerion Wimbley, who had 7.5 sacks a year ago as an outside linebacker will move to end. The folks at ESPN’s Scouts Inc . say that Wimbley was better moving forward than he was backwards into coverage anyway and see little problem with him making the transition. 23-year-old Derrick Morgan is on the other side and he has the talent to make needed improvements.

Tackle Jurrell Casey anchors the interior, and at linebacker Will Witherspoon and Colin McCarthy are proto-type 4-3 linebackers. They’re not spectacular, but they make the plays they need to make. Second-year man Akeem Ayers will tell a lot about how this unit goes. If he builds on the promise he showed his rookie year, Tennessee will have an athletic linebacker to go with its steady rocks. If Ayers does not progress, then there’s a hole against the run.

Further run support is provided by strong safety Justin Babineaux, but he’s not good in coverage. The ability of free safety Michael Griffin helps to cover for a lot though. Whether Tennessee can take the next step defensively will depend on the progress of their corners.  Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner are already decent, albeit not great, corners. But their ages are 25 & 23 respectively, so if they can improve and start taking one-on-one responsibilities it frees up Griffin to do a lot more freelancing and potentially create more turnovers. And it’s big plays—be it sacks or turnovers—that Tennessee has to prove it can generate.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 7.5—This is a cautious number given the team won nine a year ago and if Indy and Jacksonville are as bad as many expect, the Titans could grab at least three, possibly four wins on the cheap. But it’s also easy to see Tennessee as a team that plays competitively, but unable to close. They’ll run the ball with Johnson and they’ll play respectable defense, but will they get big plays from Locker, Britt, Wimbley and Griffin? That’s a much tougher call. And if Locker doesn’t come through a 6-10 season is well within reach. As a result, though I see this team as about .500, I’m going to lean to the Under here.

NFL Team Previews: Oakland Raiders

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The Oakland Raiders went from 2003-09 without ever winning more than five games in a season. The past two years they’ve gone 8-8. Each time they’ve rewarded the head coach—first Tom Cable, then Hue Jackson—with the pink slip. And people dare to say this organization has become dysfunctional? Can the Raiders push past the .500 level under yet another new coach, this time Dennis Allen, and make the playoffs for the first time since their AFC championship run of 2002? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Raiders…

OFFENSE: Carson Palmer was brought in last year to give the offense a boost and while he completed 60 percent of his passes, the veteran quarterback threw 16 interceptions against just 13 touchdown passes. I understand the injury to Jason Campbell in the early part of 2011 forced some type of major change, but the Raiders aren’t that much better off with Palmer than they were with Campbell. And the receivers are a liability. Darrius Heyward-Bey is the best of the group and he’s better suited to be a #2 or #3 target? No one else, from Jacoby Ford to Denarius Moore is a threat. Personally, I’d like to see them given rookie Juron Criner some serious playing time.

The offensive line is a mixed bag, with talented 23-year-old center Stefan Wisniewski holding down the middle, but the guards who flank him are a liability. And while Jared Veldheer is solid at left tackle, Kahlif Barnes is a big problem on the other side. This line is good enough to crack the holes for a really good back, but it couldn’t carry an average runner the way top lines can.

Thus, the Raiders need a running back who can make his own holes and ideally be a top receiving target. Enter Darren McFadden, the electrifying back who can do all of the above and can alter a defensive game plan as much as a running back in the league. But the stipulation is he has to be healthy. McFadden suffered nagging injuries throughout last year, the kind that make you think it’s not bad luck in a given year but that his body might not be built to last a 16-game season. With him, Oakland’s offense is at least interesting. Without him it’s mediocre at best, and a potential train wreck in the making.

DEFENSE: The Raiders have a tough physical defense that can play the run well, and that starts up front. The front four has solid talent at each spot, with youth on the edge, in 25-year-old ends Lamarr Houston and vets on the inside with tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. This foursome is backed up by middle linebacker Rolando McClain, the ideal middle man in a 4-3 set. McClain is not a tremendous athlete, but scouts praise his ability to read and react quickly and his pursuit between the tackles is excellent. The defensive backfield, led by strong safety Tyvon Branch and free safety Michael Huff each excel in run support. You won’t be this team up the middle and in the trenches.

But you might beat them on the edge and over the top. The outside linebacking spots are soft. The corners, Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer are both 30-plus in age and neither can lock a receiver down one-on-one. The coverage skills of Branch and Huff do not measure up to their run support abilities. And up front Houston and Shaughnessy combined for only two sacks in a combined 19 games (Shaughnessy had season-ending surgery after three games). That’s a terrible sack rate from ends in a 4-3. They play the run well, but they need to do more if this scheme is to be successful.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 7.5—You can bet the Raiders to hold serve at the eight wins they’ve posted two years running and cash an Over bet. But as the reader can probably tell, I just feel like the team has too many flaws. Is it easier to imagine them going 6-10 or going 10-6? A team that can’t rush the quarterback, play the pass, get the ball downfield and whose biggest impact player is injury prone is highly unlikely to win ten games, but certainly could lose that many. That’s why I like the Under. Come to think of it, 7.5 might also be a good Over/Under number for betting the number of games McFadden misses.

NFL Team Previews: Green Bay Packers

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Over the last two seasons the Green Bay Packers have won the Super Bowl, turned in a 15-1 regular season and produced a league MVP, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the award last season. But a playoff loss to the New York Giants sticks in the craw as the start of the 2012 regular season draws closer. TheSportsNotebook previews the Packers and their chances of a second Super Bowl title in three years…

OFFENSE: The offensive line was a problem last year, and the inability to provide consistent protection for Rodgers meant the play-calling had to gear toward quick releases to the array of receivers the quarterback and head coach Mike McCarthy have at their disposal. Fortunately for Green Bay, McCarthy is the kind of tactician who can get receivers open quickly and Rodgers is the type of quarterback who can make fast decisions and get the ball where it needs to be. But it would be nice to see what this offense could do is Rodgers could take his time and look down the field more frequently.

To that end, Green Bay signed 37-year-old free agent center Jeff Saturday, the prototype of the savvy veteran after his long career playing with Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. As to the rest of the line, the Packers will have to pretend they’re in a Republican presidential primary and run to the right. That’s where Bryan Bulaga and Josh Sitton are an excellent tackle-guard tandem. The left flank, by contrast, is vulnerable.

Wide receiver Greg Jennings and tight end Jermichael Finley are nursing injuries, though each are expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. The Packers get production from a lot of wide receivers, notably Jordy Nelson, but I think Jennings and Finley are the only two who could be successful in any system with any quarterback. The rest, including Nelson, are the product of having #12 being the one who’s delivering the ball.  For the running game, the Packers signed Cedric Benson, a move I think will work. Benson may no longer be a top-tier back but in a system where he won’t be keyed on and the right side of the line able to clear a path, he should at least require defenses to respect the run.

DEFENSE: Green Bay drafted USC’s Nick Perry to pair up with Clay Matthews at the outside linebackers in the 3-4 scheme. If Perry is as good as a lot of observers think he is, this would be the dream tandem in a 3-4, as both can wreak havoc rushing the passer. Matthews, the defensive equivalent of Rodgers, is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and a candidate to make a game-changing play every time he takes the field. The inside of the linebacking group isn’t great, but A.J. Hawk is functionable and up front nose tackle B.J. Raji does his job of occupying blockers and freeing up the linebackers as well as anyone.

Defensive end is a weak point, though in a 3-4 that’s not a killer problem. I would expect to see rookie Jerel Worthy get a shot before too long even if he’s currently listed as second string. The secondary is going through some shuffling. Charles Woodson is shifting from corner to strong safety, a move that makes sense as Woodson gets older and it’s easy to see him freelancing to make big plays and providing strong run support. It’s replacing Williams that’s a big problem right now, as Jarrett Bush is a big liability. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has options to cover that up—Tramon Williams is a tremendous lockdown corner on the other side, and Capers can have young, improving free safety Morgan Burnett shade to Bush’s side of the field. But if this weakness doesn’t bite Green Bay, it will be more testament to  Capers’ cover-up ability than Bush’s cover skills.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 12—I hate numbers like these, because I really feel like there’s no choice but to go Under. Yes, I can see the Packers winning 13 games. I might even pick them to do so when the final NFL predictions are made on September 4, the day before the season starts. But an Over/Under play is about percentages and maneuvering room and I just don’t think you ever bet an NFL team, under any circumstances to do better than 12-4 when the season starts and that record only gets me a push. So I’ve got to do the Under here.

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