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NFL playoff scenarios

The NFL Playoff Picture With Four Weeks Left

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I went to play around with ESPN’s Playoff Machine, the tool that allows you to pick the remaining games on the NFL schedule and then it automatically calibrates all the tiebreakers and sets up the NFL playoff picture in the aftermath of NFL Week 13.


My approach was conservative. I took whatever I felt would be the chalk pick in a game–if the teams seemed fairly even, I just deferred to the home team and I didn’t pick any upsets. Here’s how the results came out…

1st-Round Games
(6)Pittsburgh at (3)Cincinnati
(5)Kansas City at (4)Indianapolis

(6)San Francisco at (3)Detroit
(5)Carolina at (4)Dallas

BYES
(1)Denver, (2) New England
(1)Seattle, (2)New Orleans

The most interesting result was Pittsburgh, given that I do have them losing at Green Bay. The notion that 8-8 will grab the AFC’s final playoff spot is hardly unreasonable, given that 6-6 holds the spot right now (Baltimore).

My scenario does have the Ravens losing at Detroit and at home against New England. The latter is a classic example of the difficulty with implementing a conservative approach–is it safer to pick the Ravens at home, or defer to the Patriots as the superior team? You can make a good argument either way.

What I think this does illustrate is that Pittsburgh has a good tiebreaker situation, so long as they reach 8-8 in exactly this fashion–i.e, losing to Cincinnati at home while beating Green Bay does not equal itself out, since the Bengals’ game is within the division. It also illustrates that Baltimore is going to need to win at least one really difficult game if they’re going to make it back to the postseason.


I’m not sure I’d pick Dallas over Philadelphia, but that is the chalk pick, with the Cowboys having the Eagles coming to Big D this month and my scenario had both teams finishing 10-6. Again, we have a situation that shows that even you like Philadelphia, they’re going to have take out a team on the road and overcome significant tiebreaker disadvantages in the process. Dallas has a head-to-head win over Philly and is undefeated in the division.

The rest of the bracket is uncontroversial, especially after Chicago’s loss to Minnesota. I might lean Indy over Cincinnati in general, but I won’t dispute the 3 and 4 spots too fervently. This approach also does not factor in the possibility of teams resting starters in the final week.

NFL Playoff Projections: San Francisco’s Bracket-Altering Win

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There’s some debate going on regarding the San Francisco 49ers’ wild 41-34 win over the New England Patriots on Sunday night, with the argument being whether it means more that the Niners got a win in Foxboro, or that they blew a 31-3 lead in the process and allowed the Patriots to the tie the game. To borrow a phrase from Skip Bayless on ESPN’s First Take, “Are you kidding me?!” The San Francisco win significantly altered the playoff bracket in both conferences and might well be the determining factor in who reaches the Super Bowl—on both sides. So what if they blew a lead?

San Francisco did what most defenses have failed to do against New England this year and it’s that they shut down running back Stevan Ridley early and built up the lead. Tom Brady led a furious rally because that’s what Brady does, but when the Patriots have to throw the ball 65 times, they aren’t going to win, and for the Niners, the win was a nice vindication of Jim Harbaugh’s decision to go with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback over Alex Smith.

If you want to talk about what this win means as far as predicting a potential rematch in the Super Bowl, I’m skeptical about pulling too many conclusions. Every game is unique unto itself and certainly a rematch in New Orleans on two weeks’ rest would have an entirely different dynamic than a cold and rainy Sunday night in Foxboro. And frankly, why speculate about long-term implications when the short-term implications are so dramatic.

San Francisco’s win all but clinches the NFC West. Even if they lose at Seattle this coming Sunday night, the Niners would still hold first place and have the cushion of a Week 17 game against Arizona to lock it up. I’d been projecting Seattle to close strong and win this division. The Seahawks are still coming on strong and look like the best team in the NFC, but as I wrote last week, this is a team that would have a big threat out of the #2 seed. Not so much out of the 5-seed, where they would have to win three straight on the road. The Niners’ win in Foxboro might have knocked the Seahawks out of the Super Bowl.

The results from Sunday night also kept San Francisco in the lead for the #2 seed in the NFC, a race where Green Bay is in hot pursuit, only a half-game back. The Packers are a good news/bad news team. The offensive line problems and kicking game incompetence make it tough to believe they could win three games in succession. But give them a week off and a home game, then possibly a NFC Championship trip to Atlanta, a team they match up well against? The latter is a path Green Bay could navigate and the Frisco win reduced the Packers’ chances of making it to New Orleans.

Now let’s go over to the AFC. New England controlled its fate for the two-seed and a first-round bye, with only games against Jacksonville and Miami ahead of them, the latter at home. And if Houston just lost at Indianapolis in Week 17, the Patriots were poised to move to the top spot. Instead, the loss knocks them down into the #3 spot behind Denver, and with the Broncos playing home games with Cleveland and Kansas City, that isn’t going to change.

The Patriots are the kind of team that can come out of the first round and go the distance. But the problem here is that so are the Broncos. Brady & Peyton are on a collision course for a matchup in the second round, and the difference in the seeding is a week off—a significant issue for veteran teams—then playing at home. And while neither team would likely lose in the first round of the playoffs, you still have to give about 30-35 percent chance that an upset could occur.

Finally, let’s come to Houston. The Patriot loss all but secures the 1-seed for Houston—they do have to win one more game, but because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos, the Texans now have room to lose either this coming Sunday at home to Minnesota or in the finale at Indy. I suppose it’s not unthinkable they could lose both of these games, but I’d hardly call it likely. Houston will now avoid having to play both New England & Denver on its road through the AFC playoffs.

So to sum it all up—the result of Sunday night’s game had a significant impact on the Super Bowl hopes of six teams—the two involved, along with Seattle, Green Bay, Houston and Denver. Yes, I think that’s more important than whether the Niners blew a lead in the process of winning.

Here’s how TheSportsNotebook’s NFL playoff projections are sitting right now. There’s one part that I feel requires some explanation, but I feel stupid even putting it down and that’s Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. I’ve got the Steelers beating the Bengals at home this week, while the Ravens lose to the Giants. Even though that game is in Baltimore and my recent projections have had Baltimore winning it, I was much more alarmed with Baltimore’s play last week than New York.

The Ravens seem to be a team in an irreversible free-fall, while New York just played a clunker of a game. Altering my pick on that game, and also pegging Cincy to beat Baltimore at home, opens the door for Pittsburgh to win over Cleveland in Week 17 and they would win the division under that scenario. I know the Steelers have done nothing to merit such confidence, but has anyone else in this division? Picking a New York win also bounces Chicago from the playoffs, and likely bounces Lovie Smith from a job. Still, keep in mind the Bears only have Arizona & Detroit ahead of them and one slip-up by New York lets them back into the postseason.

NFC EAST: Washington
NFC NORTH: Green Bay
NFC SOUTH: Atlanta
NFC WEST: San Francisco
Wild-Cards: Seattle, NY Giants
Byes: Atlanta (1), San Francisco (2)
1st Round Matchups: (6)NY Giants at (3)Green Bay, (5)Seattle at (4)Washington

AFC EAST: New England
AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh
AFC SOUTH: Houston
AFC WEST: Denver
Wild-Cards: Indianapolis, Baltimore
Byes: Houston (1), Denver (2)
1st Round Matchups: (6)Baltimore at (3)New England, (5)Indianapolis at (4)Pittsburgh

If these exit polling numbers hold, I’d pick Denver to win the AFC title and probably lean Atlanta in the NFC. Combined with my preseason choices of Green Bay & Houston, that would keep me covered from every angle.

NFL Week 17 Previews

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Throughout the season, the Notebook has broken down its NFL Sunday previews by the TV coverage, figuring it made the most sense to give maximum space to the games most people were seeing. Right now though, I’m so beyond annoyed with the NFL that I’m going to junk that format for the final installment. How is it that the Jets-Dolphins, a game with a less than 50 percent chance of impacting who makes the playoffs, goes to the nation, while the Ravens-Bengals—a game with HUGE implications in the entire AFC bracket—first gets flexed to the 4:15 PM ET slot and then is buried behind Chiefs-Broncos for national coverage. To watch the biggest game of Week 17 you have to live in Baltimore or Cincinnati or subscribe to the Sunday Ticket package. I suppose my annoyance isn’t with the NFL per se, but CBS, who made the scheduling decision, because of course what we all want is to first watch a New York team, then watch Tim Tebow. Games whose impact reverberates across the playoff bracket—well, who cares about that?

Now that my rant is out of my system, here are some thoughts on each game. To your shock I’m sure, it will start with Baltimore-Cincinnati. For the Bengals, this is a win-and-you’re in spot, with a victory clinching the #6 seed in the AFC and sending them to Houston next weekend. For the Ravens it’s not about survival, but it could ultimately decide their Super Bowl fate. A Baltimore victory clinches the AFC North and a first-round bye. If New England somehow lost to Buffalo, the Ravens can still be the #1 seed. But a loss means Pittsburgh need only take care of a gimme at Cleveland to earn that same seed, while Baltimore drops to #5 and faces an immediate visit to the champion of the AFC West. The most talented team in the AFC is probably playing to preserve its Super Bowl shot in the Queen City. The Ravens have shown they can win road playoff games, but they haven’t shown they can win three in a row , so getting it done here is imperative.

The game itself looks to be a defensive struggle. Cincinnati has a tremendous ability to dominate the interior and take away Baltimore’s running game with Ray Rice. The Raven defense can be in Andy Dalton’s face the balance of the afternoon and early evening and force mistakes. Cincinnati’s pass protection is pretty good and they need to account for Terrell Suggs at all times. This one promises to be a true slugfest in the trenches with a lot on the line. I lean Baltimore to win a 17-13 final, but more importantly I wish I could see this one.

Dallas-NY Giants is the Sunday night game (8:20 PM ET, NBC) and easily the best on the NFC side of the bracket. Both teams are 8-7 and the winner will host Detroit or Atlanta next week. For the Cowboys, giving Tony Romo time in the pocket is the imperative of the week. Not only are the Giants a very pedestrian defense when they aren’t getting heat, but Romo’s bruised throwing hand has to be kept healthy. To that end, I believe Jason Garrett would be well-served by calling some early misdirection running plays to keep the New York defensive front honest. Whether Felix Jones’ hamstring is healthy enough to make that work is another question.

The Giant offense is no longer about the running game—they have the worst yards-per-carry in the league and Eli Manning has had a genuinely elite year at quarterback. The matchup of Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham against a shaky secondary is ideal for Eli, and as long as the protection schemes make sure they know where Demarcus Ware is at, the Giants will score points. Playing at home, they get the win and their first playoff trip in three years.

OTHER KEY AFC GAMES

Kansas City-Denver: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are on hand at Invesco Field as the Broncos try and conclude their miracle run to the playoffs with the quarterback Tebow displaced—Kyle Orton—now quarterbacking KC. The Broncos looked horrible last week in Buffalo, but I believe with a home crowd they can get their running game going—both with Willis McGahee and Tebow, and if they can keep the Chiefs’ ground attack under control the home team should get the win it needs to bring home the AFC West.

San Diego-Oakland: A Kansas City loss opens the door for Oakland to win the AFC West, and a Cincinnati loss unleashes a flood of scenarios that could even produce a wild-card. The Chargers couldn’t stop Oakland’s Michael Bush on the ground in the teams’ first meeting and I see little reason to think they will now, especially with everyone presuming this is the final game for Norv Turner with the playoffs out of the question. San Diego also does not rush the passer well, and I see a big game for Carson Palmer. The Chargers will get their points—Oakland’s run defense is lousy and Ryan Matthews will be good for 100-plus, but in the end the Chargers are still the Chargers. Five years after firing Marty Schottenheimer, they still haven’t made a Super Bowl. Only now they aren’t making the playoffs either.

NY Jets-Miami: You won’t have a problem finding this one on TV in the early time slot and it’s putting it mildly to say Rex Ryan’s team has a lot of problems. Their best chance to win comes through pounding Shonn Greene on the ground and taking the pressure of Mark Sanchez, but the Miami rush defense is one of the AFC’s best and they can get after the quarterback. The Jet offense looked awful last week in a bad loss to the Giants, and I really don’t think it’ll be a lot better this week in Miami. The Dolphins are playing vastly better football right now (and are in fact better than any of the AFC’s wild contenders over the past several weeks) and the vultures are circling in the Big Apple around Sanchez. Miami puts Ryan’s team out of its misery.

Tennessee-Houston: The Titans have more playoff scenarios right now than the Republicans have had challengers to Mitt Romney. What fans can know is this—as long as Tennessee wins they’re alive into the late games. Beyond that, it’s a mess. The matchup on paper is less than ideal. The Titans are at their best when Chris Johnson is running, and the Houston defense defends the run extremely well—come to think of it the Houston defense does everything extremely well and with their recent slump I would think they’d want to play to win and get a little momentum back for next week’s home playoff game against the last wild-card. Tennessee’s rush defense ranks 14th in the AFC and that means a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate, as the Texans eliminate their division rival.

NOTEWORTHY AFC GAMES

Buffalo-New England: The health of Tom Brady’s shoulder is the overriding concern here, but he expects to play and with the #1 seed on the line, New England can’t afford to sit him. Buffalo showed spark last week in blowing out Denver and C.J. Spiller can cause problems for the Patriot defense out of the backfield. I can see the Bills being pesky and hanging around, but their own defense isn’t good enough to do more than that in Brady’s backyard.

Pittsburgh-Cleveland: We noted the wide variance the Steelers’ playoff position can still take and it’s looking like Ben Roethlisberger will play. I give the Browns credit for being ready to play last week in Baltimore, but they’ve been so bad all year long, that picking them in advance is way too big a leap of faith. This game will be in the 4:15 PM ET timeslot, alongside the Baltimore-Cincy game.

NOTEWORTHY NFC GAMES

San Francisco-St. Louis: The 49ers wrap up the #2 seed with a win here and against the NFC’s worst passing offense, both in yards-per-attempt and sacks allowed, they’re going to get it.

Carolina-New Orleans: This game is Fox’s prime matchup in the early time slot, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman in the Bayou. Losing the Giants-Cowboys game killed Fox’s slate of games so Joe and Troy get a trip to the Big Easy. New Orleans needs help from St. Louis to move up to the #2 slot. Carolina wants to close out a nice rebuilding year on a good note. The Panther offense can move the ball and I see Cam Newton keeping pace with Drew Brees, who might be on a letdown after breaking Dan Marino’s single-season pass yardage record on Monday Night, and little reason to think this game will ultimately matter. Newton pulls out a win for the Panthers.

Detroit-Green Bay: It means nothing to Green Bay, and it just a little bit to Detroit. If the Lions win they clinch the #5 seed, which means a trip to the NFC East champ rather than New Orleans in the playoffs. It means something, but not enough to risk injury. All the talk is about how soon Green Bay will rest starters, but what about their opponent? The Lions don’t have the benefit of a bye next week and I wouldn’t go all-out for seeding position.

Atlanta-Tampa Bay: Atlanta takes the #5 seed if they win and Detroit loses, and like the Lions, I think they would be well-advised to rest starters. Not only for the reasons mentioned above, but two additional factors. First, if the Falcons do end up going to New Orleans you can’t tell me they wouldn’t want some revenge after the Saints kept throwing the ball in a blowout to get Brees the record (a decision I would have made too by the way ). Second, as badly as Tampa is collapsing, if the Falcons second-string can probably beat them anyway.

ANDREW LUCK SWEEPSTAKES

Indianapolis-Jacksonville: It’s down to the Colts and Rams for the #1 pick in the draft, and Indy needs to lose here to sew it up. To the disappointment of tankers everywhere, the Colts have shown some professional pride and won their last two games. But I think the tankers get their wish here—Jacksonville’s playing above average defense, especially against the run, and it’s Donald Brown in the backfield that’s been the offensive key to their wins Maurice Jones-Drew gets 100-plus of his own and Indy starts weighing the Luck-Peyton decision.

CLOSE OUT THE SEASON GAMES

Seattle-Arizona: Both teams just started a little too late, playing well in the second half, but each at 7-8. Seattle nearly upset San Francisco last week and I give them the edge here to get to .500.

Chicago-Minnesota: Toby Gerhart is the man in the backfield for the Vikings, who lost Adrian Peterson until at least next September. With the Vikes off a win in Washington and the Bears flailing, Minnesota closes the year with another win.

Washington-Philadelphia. As a ‘Skins fan I was utterly disgusted with the Minnesota loss. If Washington would have gotten to 7-9, that at least sounds like a team building to respectability. The difference between 6-10 and 5-11 isn’t as dramatic. Philadelphia played with real pride last week in Dallas, and if Washington doesn’t, this one could get ugly.