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NFL playoff previews

NFL Playoff Preview: Kansas City-Indianapolis

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The Indianapolis Colts host the Kansas City Chiefs in the game that will kick off the NFL playoffs late on Saturday afternoon (4:35 PM ET, NBC). The Notebook Nine, our nine key points to take into the Kansas City-Indianapolis game are drawn from the matchup itself, history and the Vegas line.


        • *Anyone in Kansas City with a memory has to be ready for this matchup. Indianapolis has come into Kansas City twice in recent years to burst Chiefs’ hopes. Peyton Manning beat a high-powered KC team in 2003. And a loss in 1995, when Kansas City was a heavily favored #1 seed was even more painful. The 10-7 defeat was sealed when Chiefs’ kicker Lin Elliot missed the last of his three field goals to end the game.
        • *Oddsmakers apparently think Kansas City is the better team, but the homefield factor still has Indianapolis a narrow one-point favorite. The Over/Under is 46.5, so that would play out to a 24-23 Colts’ victory. In the spirit of what Kansas City has suffered over the years, we have to assume this would be Andrew Luck leading an 88-yard drive in the closing minutes to win it.
        • *It won’t surprise anyone to know that it’s been a long time since Kansas City won a playoff game. It was 1993 and the Chiefs beat the Houston Oilers (today’s Tennessee Titans) on the road with Joe Montana at quarterback. In fairness to Kansas City, they have reached the second round via a bye three times since then (1995, 1997 and 2003), but no playoff victories since ’93.
        • *Indianapolis isn’t going to be an easy out for anyone in the postseason. The Colts follow the physicians’ motto of “First of all, do no harm.” Luck has made tremendous progress in cutting down his interceptions, and the Colts are the AFC’s best at taking care of the ball. They’re also one of the best at avoiding sacks. They don’t allow too many negative plays on offense.
        • *The Colt defense is more the X-factor with this team. They rank a solid ninth in points allowed, but have been up-and-down throughout the year. They rank poorly in both completion percentage allowed, and yards given up per pass. The rush defense is even worse. What they do well is get sacks, notably Robert Mathis, with his 19.5. The D is the opposite of the offense, geared towards the big play.
        • *T.Y. Hilton has emerged as a very good big play threat for Luck. The question that looms over this receiving corps since the loss of Reggie Wayne though, is who will be the bail-out option. Coby Fleener has caught 52 passes from the tight end spot, and is a much better target than Kansas City counterpart Anthony Fasano. If this game goes the way both teams want, and the way the oddsmakers say, the tight end that can move the chains might end up the difference.
        • *Kansas City is another defense that looks for big plays and outside linebacker Justin Houston is healthy for the first time in over a month. Tamba Hali on the other side is more up in the air. He’s listed as questionable, and I’m sure he’ll play, but will that injured knee hold him back?
        • *The Chiefs aren’t known as an offensive team, but their reliance on short passes and the running game shouldn’t obscure the fact they are tied for sixth in points scored. While the Indianapolis defense looks to make big plays at the expense of defending the run, Kansas City’s Alex Smith knows how to take care of the football and running back Jamaal Charles is going to get his share of MVP votes after a year that saw him rush for 1,287 yards and get nearly 700 more receiving.
        • *Both of these teams are excellent at taking care of the ball, and both further excel at taking it away on the defensive side. That makes both of them a legitimate Super Bowl threat, even allowing that trips to Denver or New England (and probably both if they are to go all the way) are ahead.


I’m picking Indianapolis to win this game, and thereby to cover the spread. I’m also taking the game to go Over, because I think we’re going to see the defenses makes some big plays that can create points. My reasoning is this—while Kansas City is by far the more consistent team, Indianapolis is the team with the big upside. The Colts beat San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle during the season and beat these same Chiefs decisively in Week 16.

When Indy is focused, they’re as a good as anyone. They’re playing at home, and since they made the playoffs and lost in the first round last year, I’m sure there’s going to be a little extra dose of hunger that prevents any sort of “we’re just happy to be here” mindset from sneaking in.

 

NFL 2nd Round: Sunday Previews

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Sunday’s NFL second-round games start with Houston-Baltimore (1 PM ET, CBS) and conclude with NY Giants-Green Bay (4:30 PM ET, Fox). You can scroll down one post for the previews of Saturday’s games (New Orleans-San Francisco & Denver-New England). Here’s how the Notebook sees Sunday…

Houston-Baltimore: This game reminds me a lot of the 2008 AFC playoffs when the Ravens were coming off a first-round win and going on the road to Tennessee. They pulled out a 16-13 win and made the AFC Championship Game. Now it’s Houston coming off a win and bringing a rookie quarterback on the road and hoping the run game and defense can carry him to an upset.

I’ve heard people who follow the NFL closely say that this Baltimore defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years and that the Raven D is living on past reputation. I understand where they’re coming from, but I don’t agree—or at the very least, I think it overstates the point. While it’s true Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren’t the game-changers they used to be, the Baltimore defense still ranks 3rd in the NFL in points allowed. Terrell Suggs is a game-changer at outside linebacker with 14 sacks and they’re better on the corners then has been the case in recent seasons. I don’t think we’ll see a blown coverage down the sideline like we did last year in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger hit a bomb on 3rd-and-18 in the waning minutes to set up the winning touchdown. Furthermore, Reed and Lewis strike me as the kind of veterans who, even though they’re well past their prime, find a way to make a big play at the biggest time. It’s kind of like watching Curt Schilling or Andy Pettite go to the mound, or when an aging Larry Bird or Magic Johnson were on the floor (see video below). Dramatic moments weren’t a daily part of life anymore, but the vets could still gut it up at crunch time.

There’s going to be a tremendous battle at the line of scrimmage when Houston has the ball, because the Texans’ rush game is outstanding, with both Arian Foster and Ben Tate able to run both inside and out. If Houston can win this battle, and left tackle Duane Brown can keep Suggs from going crazy, Houston will have a chance to run a safe no-mistakes offense and then see if they can get Andre Johnson open down the field in play-action.

Houston’s defense is extremely good in their own right. As with most 3-4 defenses, they get their heat from the linebacking spots, especially Conner Barwin on the outside. One factor not to overlook is how their ends, J.J. Watts and Antonio Smith can come up with some pressure as well, a difficult thing for an end to do in a three-man front. It’s going to be important for Baltimore to get Ray Rice established and keep this aggressive defense at home. If I were the Ravens, there would be some draws, traps and other misdirection plays to keep Houston on its heels. What Baltimore can’t do is can’t overly creative with their offensive game plan and decide they have to throw the ball to win. That’s going to be tempting, because there’s a lot of pressure on the Ravens at home and teams under a lot of heat and favored solidly to win don’t necessarily like being in a dogfight. But if Baltimore gets away from Rice and tries to force things to Torrey Smith downfield, it’s going to give Houston a tremendous opportunity for the sacks and interceptions they need to win.

Baltimore is favored by 7.5, an absurdly high line. I understand T.J. Yates is a rookie quarterback on the road who’s only beaten Cincinnati (both regular season and postseason) in his career. But when you run the ball like Houston does, have a defense like they do and a game-breaking receiver like they do, you should never be that type of an underdog. The Over/Under is a low 36, so we can project out the Vegas final score as being in the 21-14 range. The total sounds right, and I see Baltimore winning, but it will be closer than the experts say.

 

NY Giants-Green Bay: The Giants played the Packers better than anyone outside Kansas City this year (the one game Green Bay lost) and they won the 2007 NFC title game (see a great ground-level shot of the decisive interception in that game in the video below) here in frigid conditions. Combine that with New York winning its final two games of the year to make the playoffs and then hammering Atlanta last week, and you have people believing an upset is in the works. We should note that the smart money in Las Vegas is not as taken, and the current line is Green Bay (-8), a huge number for a playoff game against a team with New York money behind it, and the Over/Under is 52.5. Will the final score be roughly 30-21 Green Bay? Let’s take a look…

Both defenses allow opposing offenses to routinely drive the field, so this game is going to be settled in the red zone, or by who can get the most big strikes over the top. The matchup of Giant receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks against the Packer corners of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams is an absolutely huge battle. All four players have shown themselves capable of the big play and any hope New York has of an upset has to start here. No matter how well your defense plays, you are not going to stop Aaron Rodgers and if the Giants are going to put 31-35 points on the board and steal a win, Cruz and Nicks need to be seen running in space for a long time after the catch. On the flip side if notorious ballhawks Woodson and Williams get it going back the other way, that (-8) line is going to look small by early evening in Wisconsin.

When we go to the other side of the ball, it’s the interior that matters most. Green Bay must keep Rodgers upright against a pass rush where Jason Pierre-Paul, with his 16.5 sacks comes off the edge, Justin Tuck can still cause problems on the other side and Chris Canty comes up the middle. For a team that’s had pass protection problems all year, this is an awfully good front four to have to deal with. What the Packers have going for them is the extraordinary combination of Mike McCarthy’s ability to get receivers open on short notice and Rodgers pinpoint precision in finding the right one and delivering the ball. It’s asking a lot of #12, but he’s capable of winning this game even if the protection collapses, especially now that Greg Jennings is back in the lineup at wideout

The running game for both teams is a huge question mark. The Giants did a great job last week as Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw woke up the echoes of 2007. But should that wipe out an entire year of poor production on the ground?  Green Bay got its running game going for the playoffs last year, but is it asking too much for McCarthy to suddenly dial it up at the right time again. In both cases, I’m not expecting much from either team on the ground, but this is an area where the pendulum could swing to other an NYG upset or a Green Bay blowout.

But there’s no bigger X-factor in this game than Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley, a big and fast tight end who can dazzle and frustrate, sometimes within the same play. I like Finley and he’s impossible for anyone to match up with when he’s playing well—too fast for linebackers, too big for strong safeties. While New York presents an intriguing matchup that the 15-1 Packers would probably have preferred to avoid, I think Green Bay has too many playmakers. I’ll take them to win and cover, in a 35-24 final.

 

NFL 2nd Round: Saturday Previews

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The second round of the NFL playoffs starts Saturday with New Orleans-San Francisco (4:30 PM ET, Fox) and Denver-New England (8 PM ET, CBS). Here’s the Notebook’s look at the games…

New Orleans-San Francisco: I know everyone is high on the Saints, but it’s a pretty big slap in the face to the 49ers to make them an underdog of anywhere from 3.5 to 4 points on their homefield with a  week off to get ready. There are plenty of reasons to think Jim Harbaugh’s team can win this game outright. Their stout run defense, one of the NFL’s best can stop an underrated New Orleans’ ground game. They can get pressure on Drew Brees from the linebacking positions, with Patrick Willis coming from the inside and Ahmad Brooks from the outside. Frisco’s corners are very aggressive at playing the ball, with Carlos Rodgers and Tarrell Brown able to get interceptions, along with safety Dashon Goldson. Brees has thrown 14 interceptions this year, and while that’s very good, considering the number of times he puts it up, it’s also better than twice what Aaron Rodgers threw and more than Tom Brady. There’s no reason to think San Francisco can’t get some turnovers if they take away the running game. And there’s no reason to think they can’t do that. Finally let’s add in the fact that New Orleans can hurt itself with penalties, costing themselves hidden yardage and with San Francisco every yard counts in the battle for field position.

San Fran’s offense will never win any awards, but they are a good matchup for New Orleans. The Saints’ biggest problem is that they don’t force turnovers and  avoiding mistakes is what this Alex Smith-led offense is all about. Teams have also had success in running the ball on the Saints, and if Frank Gore can be a big part of this game it’s obviously a huge boon for Frisco. Making all of this work is San Francisco’s victory scenario and I’m hard-pressed to see why anyone considers it unrealistic.

New Orleans didn’t become the trendiest pick in the NFL for no reason though and I want to start with the less flashy aspects of their offense and that’s the running game and the tight end. The rush game is very well balanced, with Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles all being different types of runners and none really standing out above the other. It gives Sean Payton some options in finding the hot hand. At tight end, Jimmy Graham has been one of the league’s best this year. When you combine Graham, along with the shifty Sproles out of the backfield, you set up Brees up with some tremendous options underneath. That in turn gives him a chance to open things up down the field to Marques Colston. I believe the Saints will be able to move the ball. Whether they score points is going to depend on what should be some great red-zone battles with the SF defense and whether Colston can win his battles with the corners and make big plays.

The Over/Under on this game is 47.5. If you combine that with the pointspread, and we get a final score of about 26-21 New Orleans (trying to make the score sound like a realistic football score). In my playoff pools, I’ve been picking the Saints in this game, but with game day approaching I’m having serious second thoughts. The Saints’ problems with penalties, forcing turnovers and defending the run are all killers in this type of game, but nobody wants to look past Brees’ passing stats. I’m changing my mind here and taking the Niners outright, 20-16.

 

Denver-New England: There’s a lot of media coverage out there pointing out New England’s recent playoff losses. And I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Denver has this new quarterback named Tebow who seems to have a knack for pulling things out of his posterior at crunch time. I’ve evaluated this game every way I can, but I still can’t find a logical reason why Denver should win. Tebow’s late-game magic is made possible by solid defense and I feel like New England’s offensive style just matches up too well. The Broncos will want to use Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller to get in Tom Brady’s face, but even if they’re successful, the Patriot offense is geared toward quick strikes to the tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Angel Hernandez, along with Wes Welker coming out of the slot. I can see Denver knocking Brady down a few times, but I see the veteran quarterback consistently getting rid of the ball in time. Furthermore, it’s looking like Denver’s free safety Brian Dawkins will be out with a neck injury. Dawkins is a long way from his Pro Bowl years in Philadelphia, but this still a veteran with a lot of playoff games under his belt. His absence opens up the chances for Brady to move a replacement out of position for just a couple big plays that would break the game open. If Denver is going to survive then corners Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman will have to make some big plays and they can’t afford dropped interceptions like the one Bailey had in the end zone last week against Pittsburgh.

Regardless of how well Denver’s defense plays the offense will still have to produce in the high 20s again if they want to pull the upset. Wide receiver Eric Decker is out, so Tebow is going to have to build his passing around Demaryius Thomas again. The running game relies on Willis McGahee and Tebow’s own designed runs. Given how much New England has struggled defensively, there’s no reason to think the Broncos can’t move the ball. And with defensive end Andre Carter out for the year, Tebow should have the time to find his receivers. Do you think he can come through again with 300-plus yard performance? Or even  200-plus? I can see it happening, but this is a best-case scenario for Denver and even if he does, I still think Brady produces enough points to win.

The Vegas line on this game is New England (-13.5) with an Over/Under of 50, so let’s drop the baseline final score at 31-20. That’s closer than I think the game will be. The last time the cities of Denver and Boston met in a sporting event this big it was the 2007 World Series with the Red Sox and Rockies. This one will go about as well for the folks from out west.

NFL 1st Round: Sunday Previews

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Sunday’s NFL 1st round games feature the #4 vs. #5 matchup in both conferences, so where the winners advance will depend on who won Saturday (see the Notebook preview of those games for explanation). It’s Atlanta-NY Giants and Pittsburgh-Denver today. Here’s a look at both…

Atlanta-NY Giants (1 PM ET, Fox): Both teams excel at getting the ball to their wideouts. New York’s Victor Cruz has made electrifying plays the last two weeks in must-win spots against the Jets and Cowboys, but he’s been outstanding all year long, in compiling over 1,600 yards receiving. On the opposite flank, Eli Manning can target Hakeem Nicks. When Atlanta has the ball, Matt Ryan can look for Roddy White. While White hasn’t been as good as he was a year ago, he’s had some good games in recent weeks and in any one-game shot is a potential game-breaker. The other receiver is rookie Julio Jones, who’s fulfilled every hope Atlanta had when they drafted him to take pressure off White. Thus, if we assume that this phase of the game is a wash, it will be strengths/weaknesses further down the ladder that determine who advances. Some factors to consider…

*If you haven’t followed the Giants closely since their Super Bowl run four years ago, you might be unaware that the once-proud running game is now the worst in the NFL at yards-per-carry. Atlanta’s rush defense is pretty good, so there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Manning. And for our interesting stat of the day, the Giants have never won a home playoff game with Eli—that Super Bowl run came all on the road, they lost in 2005 to Carolina, in 2008 to Philadelphia and haven’t been back since. Add to that some concern about Manning’s ability to throw the ball in the swirling winds in January and there’s a feeling that this might not be a coincidence. Score a factor in Atlanta’s favor.

*If Ryan and Manning are both on, then a few key sacks will be critical in stealing a possession here and there. Each team has one good defensive end and another potential sleeping giant, but the Giants have a decided edge in each spot. Jason Pierre-Paul has had a much better year than John Abraham, and on the flip side Justin Tuck is more likely than Ray Edwards to have a breakout game. As far as pass protection goes, it’s a wash, with both offensive lines being good. Score one for the G-Men.

*While neither team has run the ball well, with Atlanta that’s often by choice, as they get away from Michael Turner. I didn’t say it was a good choice, just that was a  choice. If Mike Smith and his offensive staff make better choices on Sunday, Turner has a chance of controlling the tempo and giving Atlanta a big edge.

*If it comes down to turnovers, the Giant defensive backs play the ball better than the Falcons do. Corey Webster and Aaron Ross are more likely to steal an interception or two on the corners, then are Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson.

If this is looking like a dead-even game to you, it’s sure looking that way to me. One school of thought says to take the Giants as the home team and one with some experience winning playoff games. The other side says as long as Atlanta doesn’t get too cute and keeps Turner actively involved in the offense, the Falcons will win. I’m going with the latter. 31-24 Atlanta.

Pittsburgh-Denver (4:30 PM ET, CBS): All week long we’ve basically heard about how the Steelers are going to destroy Tim Tebow. Heck, in the Notebook’s newsletter (sent out for free each Monday, sign up on the right side of the home page), I often speculated that the game being over by halftime meant we could check out some good NBA and NHL action in the early evening and not miss anything. I still feel that way, but constructive analysis means exploring all options, so let’s consider the Denver case for pulling this upset as a nine-point underdog.

*Pittsburgh’s pass protection is terrible, Ben Roethlisberger is still limping around with the high ankle sprain and Denver has two very good pass rushers in defensive end Elvis Dumervil and linebacker Von Miller.

*With running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the entire postseason, Pittsburgh’s ability to take the pressure off Big Ben with the running game is limited.

*The Steeler run defense isn’t as strong as their pass defense, making it possible for Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow to get something going on the ground. Furthermore, having the best pass defense in the AFC is pretty much a wasted strength against Denver, where Tebow can make any defense look great against the pass.

*Denver can exploit Pittsburgh’s high-pressure schemes with the linebackers, but using Tebow on quarterback draws to keep LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison at home and mitigate a Steeler strength.

*Pittsburgh’s red-zone offense is subpar, making it more likely the game stays close and gives Tebow a chance for some fourth-quarter magic and outstanding kicker Mike Prater to be a difference-maker.

That’s the case and it’s not as though as I think any Denver fan who has hope is living in some kind of utopia, especially with the game at home. But we have to counter with the following points…

*Denver’s red-zone offense is even worse than Pittsburgh’s and when you only get limited scoring chances, they have to be turned into touchdowns.

*The loss of Mendenhall is overrated. Isaac Redman is capable of doing just as well—or just as mediocre as the case may be. Pittsburgh no longer lives and dies with the running game. Thinking they do is as outdated as thinking the Giants are a muscular running team.

*Roethlisberger has two great playmaking receivers on the outside in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. All it takes is one or two hits down the field to give the Steelers a lead and put Tebow in a catch-up situation.

*Pittsburgh’s won 12 games without a big year from Troy Polamulu, so they can win here without a big play from him. But what if last year’s Defensive Player of the Year does step up with a game-changing play. We’re talking ball game if that happens.

The bottom line? Like any team in the playoffs, especially one at home, you can construct a reasonable victory scenario for Denver. But reasonable doesn’t mean likely, and I’m going with the conventional wisdom and calling this one for the Steelers, 23-6.

NFL 1st Round: Saturday Previews

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The first round of the NFL playoffs kicks off on Saturday with eight of the twelve teams in action (Green Bay, New England, Baltimore and San Francisco have the byes). Here’s the Notebook breakdown of the Saturday games…

Cincinnati-Houston (4:30 PM ET, NBC): Cincy is the #6 seed, so as the lowest in the AFC bracket a win would send them to New England. As the #3 seed a Houston win earns a trip to Baltimore.

The general perception of the 9-7 Bengals is that they’re a team that wins with defense, but in truth they rate about the middle of the AFC in both points scored and points allowed. The perception comes from a statistical focus on yards gained/allowed rather than points gained/allowed, a focus that to me is one of life’s great unsolved mysteries.

The Bengals’ signature strengths are the ability to rush the passer, as well as the ability to prevent the opposition from doing the same. They don’t have one dominant pass rusher—Geno Atkins at defensive tackle is the best, but it’s mostly a team effort that has them 2nd in the AFC in sacks. They also play good defense in the red zone, and it will be imperative to hold Houston to 3s instead of 7s and avoid having to play catchup. Because if the Texans can tee off on Andy Dalton it’s going to be long day for the Bengals. Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips brings the pressure from the edge with linebackers Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed and the Texans are one of the game’s best at winning the turnover battle. If they’re playing with a lead, this defense, coupled with a feisty home crowd can create an environment ripe for a rout.

Houston has all the weapons in place to turn this into a rout. Even with T.J. Yates at quarterback, the Texans have been nursing Andre Johnson’s hamstring all year long to make sure he’s healthy for this game, the benefit of playing in a lousy division. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are both capable of big plays in the running game and Yates has a top pass-catching tight end in Owen Daniels. The rub with this team is that they’re weakness plays into Cincinnati strength, and that’s execution in the red zone. A team with a good running game and a good tight end should not rank 25th in the NFL for red-zone scoring percentage, but that’s the case in Houston. Perhaps having the ability to throw a fade rout to Johnson will improve things on Saturday.

Ultimately, I think the Texans just have too many playmakers. Throughout the skill positions and at linebacker you have players capable of changing a game on a dime. You’ve got good overall defense and a sound running game. If Matt Schaub were healthy, this would be my AFC Super Bowl pick. Even without Schaub, it’s still a team good enough to beat the Bengals. Let’s call it 19-10 Texans.

Detroit-New Orleans (8:00 PM ET, NBC): It’s the #3 vs. #6 game in the NFC. New Orleans is playing for a trip to San Francisco, while a Detroit win sends them back to Green Bay.

If you listen to the media, you might think this game will be all about offense and the quarterback matchup of Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees. And in this case, the media is actually right. The Saints & Lions rank 2nd and 3rd in the NFC in points scored behind only the Packers and Las Vegas is prepared for a high-scoring game with an Over/Under line of 59, a number that’s high for college and through the roof by NFL standards, which rarely venture past the 50 mark.

While the general portrait of this game as a shootout is accurate, they are the subtler factors underneath that will ultimately settle who wins. Working in New Orleans favor is the fact they can run the ball consistently, with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles all sharing the load. Defensively, New Orleans does a better job in the red zone, and if the points are flying, a couple red zone stops will be the difference between winning and losing. While each team has a top receiver on the outside—Marques Colston for New Orleans and Calvin Johnson for Detroit, I like New Orleans’ secondary options better with tight end Jimmy Graham and Sproles out of the backfield, each among the league’s best in their roles. Working in Detroit’s favor is that the defensive end tandem of Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch is very capable of getting to Brees. Watching these two go against one of the NFL’ s best pass-protection offensive lines will be a great battle. Detroit’s defensive backs are much better playing the ball than their New Orleans’ counterparts. The Lions rank 3rd in the NFC in turnover ratio while New Orleans is tied for 10th, and the biggest reason for the difference is that the Lion DBs can make interceptions, while the Saints do not. If corners Chris Houston and Eric Wright can steal just one or two possessions from Brees, we can be talking upset.

In the area of weaknesses, neither defense plays the run all that well and that’s something New Orleans is much better suited to exploit. The attention on Brees’ record-setting year detracted focus from a running game that was very good, the exact opposite of what New Orleans dragged into the playoffs last year before losing a first-round game in Seattle. On the Detroit side, this makes the big X factor to be the performance and health of Kevin Smith. He’s usually hurt, so his numbers for the year are basically non-existent, but the few times he’s been healthy he’s been able to take over a game. The softness of the New Orleans rush defense affords him that chance Saturday night in the Bayou.

Detroit’s got a much better chance of winning this game then they are being given credit for, but their upset scenario—a big game from Smith, interceptions from the corners and red-zone stops is a pretty narrow window to operate in. It’s not unthinkable, particularly the latter two, but counting on Smith requires a huge leap of faith. New Orleans is more consistent, better balanced, playing at home and red-hot. I’ll call this one for a 45-28 final.