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NFL divisional round

NFL 2nd Round: Seattle-Atlanta

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The final spot in the NFC Championship Game will be determine in Sunday’s early game when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Atlanta Falcons (1 PM ET, Fox). We have an odd circumstance where everyone seems sold on the fifth-seeded Seahawks and no one is solid on the top-seeded Falcons. Is this one about momentum or homefield? Can Atlanta overcome its recent postseason history? Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, some historical tidbits along with predictions tied to the Las Vegas betting lines.

THE MATCHUP: The injury factor is bigger here than any other NFL 2nd round game. Seattle defensive end Chris Clemons is one of the league’s top pass rushers, and he was lost for the balance of the season in last week’s win over Washington. Seattle still plays very physical up front, they still have tough corners, but now they don’t have anyone who can dominate the edge and get to Matt Ryan.

That’s a significant problem against this offense in this environment. Ryan will be working in the climate-controlled Georgia Dome, and his receiver tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White are as good as any. Even if Seattle corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are up to the task, Ryan can go underneath to Tony Gonzalez. And while the running game hasn’t been good for Atlanta this year, thanks to the decline of Michael Turner, is it unreasonable to think the Falcon back can gin it up for one last run, the way Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw did last year for the Giants after poor regular seasons?

Atlanta’s matchup problem is much tougher with their defense. They don’t defend the run very well and there’s no getting around that Marshawn Lynch can run over them and control the line of scrimmage. The Falcons don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, ranking near the bottom of the league in sacks, although against Russell Wilson it probably wouldn’t do them much good even if they did break the pocket. The pass coverage is nothing special other.

There are good individual players on this defense, from end John Abrahams to corner Dunta Robinson and they’ve relied all year on a bend-but-don’t break approach. It’s similar statistically to what New England was a year ago—bad in every individual category, but good in the bottom line of points allowed. The Patriots made it work at least to the Super Bowl and now the Falcons are hoping the same can happen on the NFC side.

THE CONTEXT: There’s no playoff history between these two teams, and even if I try and get creative and find some cross-sport rivalry between the cities, there’s nothing I can come up with. It’s just two franchises that never have won a Super Bowl, each has only got there one time (1998 Falcons, 2005 Seahawks) and Atlanta has all the pressure on them because they’re 0-3 with Ryan at quarterback in the playoffs.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  Atlanta is a 2 ½ point favorite, and the fact it’s less than a field goal indicates that people see Seattle as a better team. Any line movements I’ve seen or heard of this past week have seen the line go down even further, suggesting that the Falcons have to be the first 1-seed in history to be able to play the “nobody believes in us card” in the second round of the playoffs. The Over/Under is on 46, joining the other 2nd round games in the high 40s.

PREDICTION: I’m going to start by saying I like the Over. The absence of Clemons removes the main obstacle to a big day from Ryan. Atlanta can’t stop Lynch and Wilson should at least be efficient. The only thing that will hold down scoring is that the Seattle running game will chew up time, but I still see the 46 threshold being cleared. I lean the Falcons to win. If the game turns high-scoring, Ryan is the better quarterback for a shootout and I also feel like the lack of respect Atlanta is getting will be a big motivator. Then let’s add in Seattle traveling across the country for the second straight week and playing an early game with bodies attuned to Pacific time. This one goes for the Falcons, 31-24.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias

NFL 2nd Round: Green Bay-San Francisco

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There’s always one game in the NFL 2nd round that really shouts “Heavyweight Fight”, and the Saturday night matchup between Green Bay and San Francisco is it. The winner of this game will have a lot of support as the eventual Super Bowl champion. Both teams have been powers in the NFC for the past two seasons and the Packers have a recent title. Let’s dive into the matchup, set some historical context and then break down the betting lines and make predictions.

THE MATCHUP: The eyes of the world are on San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick. No one doubts his ability and I don’t think too many people doubt that he’s the long-term answer for this franchise at quarterback. What does trouble those who doubt is that perhaps it might have been better to ride Alex Smith one more year in a season where you can go the distance. The game with Green Bay provides a proto-type for arguments made on both sides.

Green Bay’s defense is healthy for the first time since early in the year, with Charles Woodson back and Clay Matthews fully locked in attacking the line of scrimmage. If Kaepernick gets rattled, this Packer defense can force him into turnovers and turn this potentially great game very ugly.

But the flip side is that Kapernick’s mobility and ability to create big plays outside the pocket is the antidote to a blitzing havoc-wreaker like Matthews. Smith might have been less susceptible to mistakes, but he wasn’t going to beat this Packer defense with big plays. Furthermore, San Francisco runs the ball between the tackles as well as anybody in the league, something else to give Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers pause before he gets too aggressive.

The phrase “heavyweight fight” can be further narrowed down to talk about Aaron Rodgers against this San Francisco defense. If Green Bay had any other quarterback—frankly including Tom Brady or Peyton Manning—they would have no shot in this game. Rodgers is the only quarterback who provides elite passing skills with outside-the-pocket mobility and it’s the latter that Green Bay desperately needs. Their offensive line is overmatched by San Francisco’s front seven, especially with Justin Smith expected to play.

Mike McCarthy has done a good job playcalling, using the run enough to create windows for Rodgers to throw the ball, but the Packer running game just isn’t very good. Rodgers has to be perfect if Green Bay is going to win. Normally that’s a recipe for certain defeat. But #12 is one of the few quarterbacks where perfection in a big game is at least an even money bet.

THE CONTEXT: These teams have a ton of recent history in the playoffs, going back to 1995, although this is the first meeting between the two since Rodgers supplanted Brett Favre as the Packer quarterback. The Pack and Niners played four straight years from 1995-98, with Green Bay winning the first three of those games, including the ’97 NFC Championship Game. They also won a first-round game in 2001 in Lambeau, a rare wild-card game where each team won 12 regular season games.

I also want to throw a game out there that doesn’t involve these two, but had a similar issue. The 2006 San Diego Chargers were 14-2, had the better team, but had a quarterback in Philip Rivers making his first playoff start. They were hosting New England, and the Patriots were getting a field goal. Did you go veteran future Hall Of Famer at quarterback, or up-and-comer and more complete team? It was the Pats that won that game, 24-21.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  San Francisco opening at (-3) was really no surprise. The field goal is the customary courtesy given to the home team and the whole point of this article is just how evenly matched this game is. I am surprised there hasn’t been any downward movement—given the public’s desire to bet quarterbacks, I thought there would be more action on the Packers and the line would nudge off the threshold number and into the 2.5 area. Perhaps that might come later today and tomorrow morning when most casual bettors place their action. The total is on 45, which is the lowest of the four second-round games, although only by a point.

PREDICTION: I’ll open with the simple answer and then start covering my posterior. I’m picking San Francisco in a close one. Now the flip side—if I were at a betting window, I’d bet the Packers. In general, if you can get an elite quarterback against one making his first playoff start, and get a field goal, I think you just bet it blind and if you do it ten times, you probably go 6-3-1—or at least 5-4-1, which still turns a profit. The few areas where I’ve had handicapping success (and they are very few) have been sticking with strict application of a principle like this.

But I’m not betting, I’m just making a pick, and this is one of the areas where I think the kid comes through. I like the fact there’s been so much scrutiny on Kapernick. I think it will have him tested enough to at least narrow the gap between him and Rodgers sufficiently so that San Francisco’s superiority across the board can come through. I don’t like that Green Bay can’t run the ball when they get in close. I don’t like the troubles the Packers have had shutting down #1 receivers all year, and see Michael Crabtree having a good game. This one will be worthy of the prime-time spotlight and when it’s over let’s call it Niners 27-24 (though that would be a pointspread push, my official pick against the number is also San Fran).

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias

NFL 2nd Round: Baltimore-Denver

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The last time Peyton Manning was on the field for a playoff game came in the first round of the 2010 season, when his Colts lost a home game to Rex Ryan’s Jets. Now Peyton’s comeback reaches the postseason on Saturday afternoon when his Denver Broncos host the Baltimore Ravens (4:30 PM ET, CBS) in the game that kicks off the NFL’s second round. We’ll break down the matchup, try and place it in some historical perspective, look at the betting lines in Las Vegas and make a pick.

THE MATCHUP: This is the kind of matchup that Baltimore has outcoached themselves in during recent years. The Ravens are best being a run-first team and letting Joe Flacco throw after the rushing attack with Ray Rice is established. Meanwhile, Denver has an excellent rush defense, but is susceptible to the pass.  Under former Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, you could count on the Ravens to chase fool’s gold, go pass first and find out that all for Flacco’s strengths, he’s not someone you have as the first option in the offense.

But Cameron was canned in December and Jim Caldwell took over. The firing took place leading up to the regular season meeting between these two teams, when Denver got a blowout win on the road. I’m okay with tossing that out—trying to win a game when your coaching staff is in transition is tough. What I want to see is if Caldwell will commit to Rice, even if it doesn’t’ work early and even if Denver scores first. Just give Ray the ball and let Flacco’s passing game off of that.  Because while Bronco pass coverage is questionable, their pass rush is outstanding and if they get comfortable teeing off on Flacco it’s going to be a long day for the Ravens.

On the flip side, there’s no such need for caution with Denver. We know their quarterback can take the load on his shoulders and he’ll have to, with the Denver rush offense only ranking 25th in yards-per-carry. The Broncos have to rely on short passes to serve as a de facto running game. While the Baltimore defense has its veterans—Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata on the field, I don’t know that they can get pressure on Manning and the Denver protection has been outstanding all year, even with teams knowing they’re going to throw. And the fact the Broncos still rank 5th in yards-per-pass attempt tells you that low sack totals aren’t coming at the expense of getting the ball down the field.

THE CONTEXT: The history is less about Ravens-Broncos, then the two big personalities on the Denver side. Baltimore had a terrible time against Peyton when he played for Indianapolis. And if we go to the front office, John Elway was originally drafted by the old Baltimore Colts, but refused to play for Bob Irsay Sr, and his used his leverage as a baseball draftee of the New York Yankees to force a trade. So the city of Baltimore has had its issues with the two legends for Denver.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  The market really loves the Broncos, slotting them as 9.5 point favorite. The total is at 46.5, which is in the middle of the four playoff games this weekend. I get why people like Denver to go all the way—other than the running game, they have no real weaknesses, but that’s an awful lot of points to give to a veteran team that has a history of winning road playoff games and even in the games they come up short, there’s a good history of competing well.

PREDICTION: As you might have discerned from the comments above, I’ll pick Denver to win, but I think this one is going to be much closer than the experts say. I consider a Baltimore win more likely than a Denver pointspread cover if I had to pick. The key to the Ravens winning are that they have to force some turnovers—at least a couple—and that’s not something Denver has struggled with this year. If Denver is going to cover the number, they have to count on Baltimore reverting to the pass-happy tendencies of Cameron years. I don’t think that’s likely. Both offenses will play well, the game comes down to the fourth quarter and Peyton keeps his magical year alive with a 34-31 win.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias