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NFL Week 9 Recap

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NFL Week 9 had a lot going on–Nick Foles looked like a Hall of Fame quarterback while Aaron Rodgers was knocked out. The collapses in Atlanta and Baltimore continued, while Seattle and Indianapolis showed some escape-ability. But TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis is going to begin with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, two enigmatic organizations that are showing themselves to be for real.

NY Jets 26 New Orleans 20: I’m sure there will be an idiotic media member somewhere who will proclaim that Geno Smith outplayed Drew Brees because Smith’s team won the game. In reality, Smith went 8/19 for 115 yards, while Brees was 30/51 for 382 yards. But when a team has to throw that often, it spells problems.


The Jets intercepted Brees twice, while Smith played mistake-free, a luxury he had because of how good the New York running game was. Chris Ivory ran for 139 yards, while the New Orleans running game had nothing. The Jets might throw out disastrous games like last week in Cincinnati, but Rex Ryan’s team is 5-4 and has home wins over the Patriots and Saints.

Carolina 34 Atlanta 10: Neither Cam Newton or Matt Ryan played all that well–Newton acknowledged as much in the postgame press conference, at least regarding the first half. The Carolina quarterback was able to at least make a few plays though, and Ryan threw three interceptions.

This was another game where the differences in running game spelled the ultimate difference. Carolina didn’t overpower Atlanta, but the Panthers got 133 rush yards, while the return of Stephen Jackson has done little to rejuvenate the Falcons. Eventually, Atlanta just cracked. This game was 17-10 after three quarters before the Panthers pulled away. They are now 5-3 and have pulled to within a game of the Saints in the NFC South.

Cleveland 24 Baltimore 18: We’ll fold the other collapsing team losing to the other emerging team right here under Carolina-Atlanta. The Ravens offensive line is coming under a lot of heat, and deservedly so. Before blaming them for this loss, let’s consider though, that they were at least matched in incompetence by Cleveland’s offensive front. Neither the Ravens nor the Browns had a running game to speak of in this game, and the Browns line gave up more sacks (5-2) and allowed their quarterback to be hit more frequently (8-6).

The difference is that Joe Flacco, he who insisted that the organization pay him more than Tom Brady in the offseason, was outplayed by Jason Campbell, he who has kicked around to most every team in the NFL since being drafted by the Redskins in 2005. Campbell was 23/35 for 262 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Flacco was a mediocre 24/41 for 250 yards and one interception. Campbell made a clutch fourth-down throw under pressure that iced the game late.

Moving on to the games with the big quarterback news…


Philadelphia 49 Oakland 20: I love sports history, so I certainly have to tip my hat to Nick Foles and his record-tying seven touchdown passes. Foles joins Peyton Manning, who did it in Week 1, and Joe Kapp, who quarterbacked the Minnesota Vikings to the 1969 Super Bowl.

Beyond a hat tip though, I can’t rush to judgment about Foles being the future of the Eagles offense. This is a quarterback whose offense was shut down by an injury-riddled Dallas defense two weeks ago. Let’s see some sustained consistency, not just spectacular outbursts followed by miserable performances. In that sense, Foles is a microcosm of Chip Kelly’s offense as a whole.

Chicago 27 Green Bay 20: Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone early in the early game and is said to be out for about three weeks. This constitutes as good of an excuse as there is for losing a football game, but in watching the Monday Night game, I felt like the Packers still gave away an opportunity.

Green Bay was still at home, and they got a big game from Eddie Lacy, who ran for 150 yards. The Packer defense had been playing pretty well of late, even without Clay Matthews. When Lacy broke a long touchdown run, and then the Packers turned a recovered onside kick into a field goal and a 20-17 lead in the third quarter, the game was there to be taken.

The defense let them down. The tackling was awful, the coverage subpar and the Josh McNown-led offense first took the lead back, then used up almost all of the last nine minutes on an 18-play drive for a field goal.

If the Packer defense gives the team anything, they win. Instead they cough up a game at a stretch of the season where they’re going to have to fight just to survive. Chicago pulls to 5-3 and even with both Green Bay ad Detroit in the NFC North.

The Houdini-style escapes…


Seattle 27 Tampa Bay 24 (OT): Russell Wilson made too many mistakes, with two interceptions, in spite of a solid ground game led by Marshawn Lynch, and the Seahawk defense inexplicably let Tampa Bay run all over them. In the end, Wilson delivers a late touchdown pass to tie and Seattle escapes to get to 8-1.

Indianapolis 27 Houston 24: The Colts didn’t run the ball, they let Case Keenum pick them apart, and Andrew Luck was wildly inaccurate, at 18/40. Trailing 24-6 in the third quarter, Luck showed his uncanny ability to make big plays though, throwing three touchdown passes in the final 19 minutes of play and stealing a big road win that kept his team two games up on Tennessee in the AFC South.

And a run through the rest of the Week 9 action…

Buffalo 23 Kansas City 13: It’s amazing how many games you can win when you avoid mistakes and just let the other team beat themselves. KC won the turnover battle 3-zip, and had two defensive touchdowns, including a 100-yard interception return. The Chiefs do have to be concerned about the 241 rush yards they gave up though.

Miami 22 Cincinnati 20 (OT): Andy Dalton was awful, throwing three interceptions, in spite of a strong running attack to support him, and then being sacked by Cameron Wake for a game-ending safety in overtime. Wake has been hurt for a lot of this season, but maybe his three-sack night will make people realize just how much he matters to this Dolphin team.

New England 55 Pittsburgh 31: Big days for both Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, as the final score indicates. The difference is that Brady got a little more help in the running game, and had no interceptions compared to Roethlisberger’s two. Funny how the rush game helps in keeping turnovers down. Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Rob Gronkowski all had 100-plus yards receiving days for the Pats. This game was tied 24-24 in the third quarter before New England blew it open.

Washington 30 San Diego 24 (OT): Another game where the rushing attack was the difference. While RG3 was efficient, and Pierre Garcon made some big-time catches, Alfred Morris was the difference-maker, going for 121 yards on 25 carries.

Dallas 27 Minnesota 23: It was a great day for Tony Romo. In spite of no ground support, as has been the norm lately, he throws for 337 yards and a game-winning touchdown with 35 seconds left. The Dallas win kept them ahead of both Philadelphia and Washington in the loss column in the NFC East.

Tennessee 28 St. Louis 21: A battle of Jeff Fisher’s current team and his old team, and a rematch of the 1999 Super Bowl. It was the battle of the running backs, as Chris Johnson and Zac Stacy had big games. The Titans get a hard-fought win, and at 4-4, are very much alive in the AFC playoff picture.

 

NFL Week 8 Closing Thoughts: The Favorites Hold Steady

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NFL Week 8 was pretty chalk, as evidenced by the fact that the elimination pool I’m in so nobody get knocked out for the first time all season. There were no big battles, no landscape-changing moments. So why not just start with the basics, and that’s the consensus three best quarterbacks in the NFL. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning dug themselves holes before turning on the gas, and Aaron Rodgers shone in prime-time.

New England 27 Miami 17: The Patriots trailed 14-0 early and 17-3 at half, before a third-quarter flurry gave them the lead. Brady and the passing game still can’t get untracked–he was 13/22 for 116 yards. The New England rush game was solid–Stevan Ridley carried 14 times for 79 yards, but Miami matched it with Lamar Miller. While the Pats won the turnover battle 3-1, one of those was a desperation interception on the game’s final play.


So what swung this key AFC East battle where Miami had the chance to close within a game of their rival? The defensive line play of New England. The Pats had six sacks, two of them by Logan Ryan, as this team continues to look more like those that won Super Bowls in 2001, 2003 and 2004 then some of the Brady shows that have been entertaining and successful, but never a champion.

Denver 45 Washington 21: The Broncos trailed 21-7 early in the third quarter after a pair of Peyton Manning turnovers–one a fumble and one a pick-six by DeAngelo Hall. Denver promptly reeled off 38 unanswered points. Manning had the numbers at 30/44 for 354 yards, but with three interceptions, he was a double-edged sword all game.

The real story in this game was that RG3 was simply awful. The stats are bad–15/30 for 132 yards and two interceptions, before being lifted for Kirk Cousins after the game got out of hand. But the stats don’t tell the story. I watched this game and it was simply the worst football game RG3 has played. I’d include the first two games of this season, where the effects of his injury were most evident, and if you qualify those for health then it’s no contest that Sunday was his worst display.

I blame the Redskins’ defense for a lot, but not for this fourth-quarter collapse. The defense hung in there with a great offensive team, but you can’t leave them on the field forever.


Green Bay 44 Minnesota 31: The Vikings took the opening kickoff back 109 yards for a touchdown and it was all Packers from that point forward. Green Bay got a big special teams score of their own, Aaron Rodgers was completely locked in (24/29 for 285 yards, no picks) and Eddie Lacy continues to give a solid ground presence, rushing for 94 yards on 29 carries.

Rodgers is losing receivers left and right, but Jordy Nelson is still on hand and with seven catches for 123 yards, that was enough against a Minnesota team that is essentially falling apart in front of us.

Other top teams that held serve on Sunday…

Kansas City 20 Cleveland 17: The Chiefs scored the first 13 points and then hung on. It was the usual formula of ball control–they owned the rushing battle 136 yards to 57 behind Jamaal Charles–and no turnovers. An area of concern has to be pass protection. The Browns sacked Alex Smith six times and you can’t play a ball-control offense out of 2nd-and-16, or even taking sacks on third down and giving up field position.

New Orleans 35 Buffalo 17: Saying that one team had Drew Brees at quarterback and the other had Thaddeus Lewis might be an overly simplistic way of analyzing football. In this case, the simple explanation is the correct one. Brees threw for over 300 yards and five touchdowns on a day when the teams’ ground games and pass rushes were essentially even. Brees also spread the ball around to seemingly every one on the New Orleans roster.

Seattle 14 St. Louis 9: If you ever doubt that turnovers define an NFL game, remember this one. Seattle richly deserved to lose this football game. They did not run the ball and they did not protect the passer–how bad does the protection have to be for a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson to be sacked seven times? Robert Quinn and Chris Long had careers coming off the edge. Seattle’s defensive front was overrun, as the Rams generated 200 rush yards behind rookie running back Zac Stacy.

But Seattle did not turn the ball over, they got red zone stops and they got an 80-yard pass play from Wilson to Golden Tate. That was enough for an unimpressive win, and was salt in the wound for the sports fans of St. Louis on a Monday night when the Rams had to fight what I presume was a losing battle for attention against the baseball Cardinals who were also in town, with Game 5 of the World Series.


San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10: The Jaguars are bad enough that I feel comfortable raising a criticism of the 49ers after a 32-point win in London. Where was the pass rush? In spite of Chad Henne dropping back 45 times, he was not sacked once. This is something that San Francisco struggled at down the stretch of the 2012 season and they can’t afford for this to persist when they start playing legitimate opponents again.

Both the NFC and AFC had a game between playoff contenders that proved notable, albeit for completely different reasons…

Cincinnati 49 NY Jets 9: The Jets’ defense, which has played so well this season, must have still been celebrating last week’s win over the Patriots. Andy Dalton was made to look like Brady and Peyton combined, as Dalton went 19/30 for 325 yards and five touchdown passes. He hooked up with Marvin Jones and A.J. Green repeatedly, each getting over 100 yards in the air, and there was no pressure to be found on the Cincinnati quarterback.

Detroit 31 Dallas 30: The Cowboys led this game through most of the second half, as a 13-7 game after three quarters ended up a shootout. Matthew Stafford ends up with 480 pass yards, 329 of them to Calvin Johnson, and Detroit went 80 yards in four plays to steal the win with 12 seconds to go. If the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East, and presumably the Lions won’t win the NFC North, this game could loom large in tiebreakers come December.

And the rest of the Week 8 games…

Carolina 31 Tampa Bay 13: Cam Newton is just playing some very efficient football right now. The Panthers’ three-game winning streak isn’t coming against powerhouses, but a nice job of keeping focus in a short week (this was the Thursday night game) on the road.

NY Giants 15 Philadelphia 7: The Eagles only touchdown came on defense, so Chip Kelly’s offense has now produced only three points in the last two weeks. The Giants are now 2-6, but with the Eagles 3-5 and flailing, the Redskins 2-5 and looking bad, and the Cowboys an inconsistent 4-4, yes New York can win the NFC East.

Oakland 21 Pittsburgh 18: If the Steelers don’t allow Terrelle Pryor a 93-yard touchdown run in the first quarter, then Pittsburgh likely wins this game. But even if they had, I’m just deeply disappointed in the complete lack of a running game, just one week after Le’Veon Bell had run over Baltimore.

Arizona 27 Atlanta 17: Matt Ryan threw four interceptions, but there are two things we should not do. Given that the Falcons’ attack made the Steelers’ running game look like the 1980s Redskins by comparison–27 total rush yards–Ryan had to throw the ball 61 times against a good, aggressive defense, and that’s asking for trouble.

But while not making Ryan’s interceptions the story, we should also not call him an “elite” quarterback, to use the worn-out phrase in today’s media. Elite quarterbacks don’t throw that many picks whatever the reason.

NFL Analysis: Week 2 Wrap-Up

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Week 2 of the NFL season proved to be the one so big it couldn’t be confined to a single post. Either that, or TheSportsNotebook lacks all discretion in understanding what makes a story. However you explain it, our recap of Week 2 encompassed four posts, including this one.

This installment will serve to link you to the other three and clean up commentary on the seven remaining games that didn’t fall under the umbrella of the three other posts. Between them all, you can read up on all 16 games from Week 2.

WEEK 2 NFL ANALYSIS
Seattle’s Win Over San Francisco More About Sloppiness
Is The AFC West This Good Or The NFC East This Bad?
AFC Powers Struggling Early


OTHER WEEK 2 DIVISIONAL GAMES

Chicago 31 Minnesota 30: Sloppy game, with seven combined turnovers, but thrilling finish, as Jay Cutler hits Martellus Bennett for the winning touchdown with 18 seconds left. Biggest positive for Chicago is how well Cutler spread the ball around. Brandon Marshall was still the leading receiver, but Bennett and running back Matt Forte combined for 18 catches.

Cincinnati 20 Pittsburgh 10: The Steelers may as well just junk the running game and put the rest of the season in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands. This offense just has a lot of problems right now. Cincy didn’t look great, but they were good enough to win on Monday night at home.

New Orleans 16 Tampa Bay 14: Tampa got its running game going, with Doug Martin leading an attack that produced 160 yards. Josh Freeman remains a mess, though, and it allowed Drew Brees to hook up with Jimmy Graham often enough (10 catches, 179 yards) to get a winning field goal on the last play and steal a divisional road win.

FOUR MORE NOTABLE GAMES FROM WEEK 2

Buffalo 24 Carolina 23: There’s every reason to be impressed with the Buffalo offense. E.J. Manuel was efficient, at 27/39 for 296 yards, and he was clutch, leading a drive to the winning touchdown with two seconds left. And C.J. Spiller got loose for 103 yards on 16 carries against a Carolina defense that had collared Marshawn Lynch in Week 1.

Miami 24 Indianapolis 20: The Fish are 2-0 with both wins on the road, but the other one was at Cleveland, so I’m not overly excited yet. My takeaway is regarding Indianapolis. They barely survived Oakland last week and now lose to Miami this week, both games at home.

he come-down-to-earth theory seems to be holding up for the Colts after the magic ride of 2012. And this game continues the hold the city of Miami has on Indianapolis in sports, including the last two years in the NBA playoffs.

Atlanta 31 St. Louis 24: Great day for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones—the latter had 11 catches for 182 yards in Roddy White’s absence, but I’m again impressed by the way St. Louis fights from behind. They rallied from 11 down in the fourth quarter last week to win, and this time around they trailed 24-3 and pulled to within seven with 2:09 to go. I want to see the Rams start setting a better tone early, but Sam Bradford’s newfound comeback skills have to be heartening for the folks in St. Loo.

Arizona 25 Detroit 21: The Lions go on the road, play well and lead in the fourth quarter, but 101 yards worth of penalties do them in. Big surprise.

Here at TheSportsNotebook it was again a decent week in making picks against the moneyline, as is done for most every game. I ended up (+75) on the week, which brings me to plus (+157) for the season. I’m getting shut out in the big national showcase games, but grinding out some upsets (had San Diego over Philly at +265) to keep things moving forward.