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NFL 2nd round schedule

NFL 2nd Round: Houston-New England

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Houston’s visit to New England on Sunday afternoon (4:30 PM ET, CBS) will bring an end to the NFL 2nd round. It’s a rematch of Monday Night game in December when the Patriots blasted the Texans 42-14 and sent them free-falling out of the #1 seed in the AFC. Does Houston have a bounceback in them, or is New England rolling to at least another AFC Championship Game appearance? We’ll look at the matchup, the historical context and how the betting lines look.

THE MATCHUP: Houston makes its living on the ground with Arian Foster, and I expect him to have a good game on Sunday. But New England has made a lot of strides defensively this season, after being porous a year ago, even in a Super Bowl year. A beefed-up effort against the run is the biggest demonstration of the improvement. Foster is the best of the non-superhuman running backs in the NFL (a group that includes everyone except Adrian Peterson), but unless the Patriot defense can be loosened up, he can have a good game, but not a great one.

New England is beatable through the air, but that’s where Houston’s problems have come. Matt Schaub did not play well down the stretch and he was mediocre—at best—in last week’s first-round win over Cincinnati. There’s also not a lot of diversity in the offense. If Schaub isn’t targeting Andre Johnson then it seems he isn’t targeting anyone. Barring some type of serious step-up by Schaub, it would seem the best Houston can do is to run the ball fairly well and mix in some big throws to Johnson.

That’s a formula that can work, but only if you slow down the opposing offense. Suffice it to say that’s a considerable challenge when Tom Brady is the opposing quarterback. The Patriots have been the most prolific offense in the league and they have no weaknesses. Brady has the receivers in Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. He has the tight ends in a healthy Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And he has the running game in Stevan Ridley. Even if you play well defensively against the Patriots, you still have to assume the offense needs a minimum of 28 points.

THE CONTEXT: Houston made the playoffs for the first time last season, so the history between these two franchises boils down to that Monday Night Game in December. And I suppose we can throw in the 2009 regular season finale, a meaningless game where the Patriots played their starters and Wes Welker got hurt. That’s not much of a history. But the cities have met in the NFL playoffs. Back in 1978, the old Houston Oilers (now the Tennessee Titans) came to Foxboro and hammered the second-seeded Patriots 31-14. The city of Boston got its revenge by winning two NBA Finals matchups between the Celtics and Rockets in the 1980s, and when the Patriots won their second Super Bowl in 2003 over Carolina, the game was played in Houston.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  New England is a 9.5 point favorite and based on the lines posted this morning at The Mirage, they’re the biggest favorite of the weekend, though they and Denver are running neck-and-neck and probably depends what book you look at. The Over/Under of 47.5 is also the highest of the second round.

PREDICTION: The strongest argument anyone has made for Houston is that because New England lost a 2010 second-round game to the New York Jets after destroying the Jets in a Monday Night Game in December, perhaps history could repeat itself. Just ask yourself—if you and I have had these recollections of 2010, do you think Tom Brady or Bill Belichick might have remembered, and perhaps passed those thoughts on to the rest of the team in a motivational kind of way? No, if Houston is going to win, it’s going to have to genuinely be a case of the first meeting being a fluke.

The fluke thing is certainly possible—New England isn’t four touchdowns better than Houston. While Schaub isn’t inspiring confidence, he has the talent to have a big game—is it impossible to imagine Johnson with 14 catches for 135 yards? If you can envision that, you can envision a scenario where Houston wins, supplemented by Foster running the ball and keeping Brady on the sidelines.

So I’m not board with the idea that this game is all but decided before its played, but let’s also be realistic. Brady just has too many weapons and there’s going to be enormous pressure on Schaub to keep up, pressure I don’t think he’s given any sign of being able to match. Houston will have its moments, but only enough to keep the pointspread in doubt until the fourth quarter, and even there they come up short. New England wins it 35-23.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias

NFL 2nd Round: Seattle-Atlanta

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The final spot in the NFC Championship Game will be determine in Sunday’s early game when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Atlanta Falcons (1 PM ET, Fox). We have an odd circumstance where everyone seems sold on the fifth-seeded Seahawks and no one is solid on the top-seeded Falcons. Is this one about momentum or homefield? Can Atlanta overcome its recent postseason history? Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, some historical tidbits along with predictions tied to the Las Vegas betting lines.

THE MATCHUP: The injury factor is bigger here than any other NFL 2nd round game. Seattle defensive end Chris Clemons is one of the league’s top pass rushers, and he was lost for the balance of the season in last week’s win over Washington. Seattle still plays very physical up front, they still have tough corners, but now they don’t have anyone who can dominate the edge and get to Matt Ryan.

That’s a significant problem against this offense in this environment. Ryan will be working in the climate-controlled Georgia Dome, and his receiver tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White are as good as any. Even if Seattle corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are up to the task, Ryan can go underneath to Tony Gonzalez. And while the running game hasn’t been good for Atlanta this year, thanks to the decline of Michael Turner, is it unreasonable to think the Falcon back can gin it up for one last run, the way Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw did last year for the Giants after poor regular seasons?

Atlanta’s matchup problem is much tougher with their defense. They don’t defend the run very well and there’s no getting around that Marshawn Lynch can run over them and control the line of scrimmage. The Falcons don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, ranking near the bottom of the league in sacks, although against Russell Wilson it probably wouldn’t do them much good even if they did break the pocket. The pass coverage is nothing special other.

There are good individual players on this defense, from end John Abrahams to corner Dunta Robinson and they’ve relied all year on a bend-but-don’t break approach. It’s similar statistically to what New England was a year ago—bad in every individual category, but good in the bottom line of points allowed. The Patriots made it work at least to the Super Bowl and now the Falcons are hoping the same can happen on the NFC side.

THE CONTEXT: There’s no playoff history between these two teams, and even if I try and get creative and find some cross-sport rivalry between the cities, there’s nothing I can come up with. It’s just two franchises that never have won a Super Bowl, each has only got there one time (1998 Falcons, 2005 Seahawks) and Atlanta has all the pressure on them because they’re 0-3 with Ryan at quarterback in the playoffs.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  Atlanta is a 2 ½ point favorite, and the fact it’s less than a field goal indicates that people see Seattle as a better team. Any line movements I’ve seen or heard of this past week have seen the line go down even further, suggesting that the Falcons have to be the first 1-seed in history to be able to play the “nobody believes in us card” in the second round of the playoffs. The Over/Under is on 46, joining the other 2nd round games in the high 40s.

PREDICTION: I’m going to start by saying I like the Over. The absence of Clemons removes the main obstacle to a big day from Ryan. Atlanta can’t stop Lynch and Wilson should at least be efficient. The only thing that will hold down scoring is that the Seattle running game will chew up time, but I still see the 46 threshold being cleared. I lean the Falcons to win. If the game turns high-scoring, Ryan is the better quarterback for a shootout and I also feel like the lack of respect Atlanta is getting will be a big motivator. Then let’s add in Seattle traveling across the country for the second straight week and playing an early game with bodies attuned to Pacific time. This one goes for the Falcons, 31-24.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias

NFL 2nd Round: Baltimore-Denver

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The last time Peyton Manning was on the field for a playoff game came in the first round of the 2010 season, when his Colts lost a home game to Rex Ryan’s Jets. Now Peyton’s comeback reaches the postseason on Saturday afternoon when his Denver Broncos host the Baltimore Ravens (4:30 PM ET, CBS) in the game that kicks off the NFL’s second round. We’ll break down the matchup, try and place it in some historical perspective, look at the betting lines in Las Vegas and make a pick.

THE MATCHUP: This is the kind of matchup that Baltimore has outcoached themselves in during recent years. The Ravens are best being a run-first team and letting Joe Flacco throw after the rushing attack with Ray Rice is established. Meanwhile, Denver has an excellent rush defense, but is susceptible to the pass.  Under former Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, you could count on the Ravens to chase fool’s gold, go pass first and find out that all for Flacco’s strengths, he’s not someone you have as the first option in the offense.

But Cameron was canned in December and Jim Caldwell took over. The firing took place leading up to the regular season meeting between these two teams, when Denver got a blowout win on the road. I’m okay with tossing that out—trying to win a game when your coaching staff is in transition is tough. What I want to see is if Caldwell will commit to Rice, even if it doesn’t’ work early and even if Denver scores first. Just give Ray the ball and let Flacco’s passing game off of that.  Because while Bronco pass coverage is questionable, their pass rush is outstanding and if they get comfortable teeing off on Flacco it’s going to be a long day for the Ravens.

On the flip side, there’s no such need for caution with Denver. We know their quarterback can take the load on his shoulders and he’ll have to, with the Denver rush offense only ranking 25th in yards-per-carry. The Broncos have to rely on short passes to serve as a de facto running game. While the Baltimore defense has its veterans—Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata on the field, I don’t know that they can get pressure on Manning and the Denver protection has been outstanding all year, even with teams knowing they’re going to throw. And the fact the Broncos still rank 5th in yards-per-pass attempt tells you that low sack totals aren’t coming at the expense of getting the ball down the field.

THE CONTEXT: The history is less about Ravens-Broncos, then the two big personalities on the Denver side. Baltimore had a terrible time against Peyton when he played for Indianapolis. And if we go to the front office, John Elway was originally drafted by the old Baltimore Colts, but refused to play for Bob Irsay Sr, and his used his leverage as a baseball draftee of the New York Yankees to force a trade. So the city of Baltimore has had its issues with the two legends for Denver.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS:  The market really loves the Broncos, slotting them as 9.5 point favorite. The total is at 46.5, which is in the middle of the four playoff games this weekend. I get why people like Denver to go all the way—other than the running game, they have no real weaknesses, but that’s an awful lot of points to give to a veteran team that has a history of winning road playoff games and even in the games they come up short, there’s a good history of competing well.

PREDICTION: As you might have discerned from the comments above, I’ll pick Denver to win, but I think this one is going to be much closer than the experts say. I consider a Baltimore win more likely than a Denver pointspread cover if I had to pick. The key to the Ravens winning are that they have to force some turnovers—at least a couple—and that’s not something Denver has struggled with this year. If Denver is going to cover the number, they have to count on Baltimore reverting to the pass-happy tendencies of Cameron years. I don’t think that’s likely. Both offenses will play well, the game comes down to the fourth quarter and Peyton keeps his magical year alive with a 34-31 win.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 3-0*
Pointspread Winners: 2-1
Totals Line: 1-2
*Recused myself from the Washington-Seattle case due to fan bias