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New York Yankees playoff chances

What The Yankees Need To Win It All

It’s been nearly ten years since the New York Yankees last won a World Series and in the baseball culture of the Bronx, that probably has Yankee fans seeing themselves on a par with fan bases of the Cubs and Astros—the next in line to end an interminably long championship drought. This Yankee team has the horses to do it and the question over the rest of the summer will be what kind of starting pitching first-year manager Aaron Boone has to work with.

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When I watch the Yankees, the word that always comes to my mind is “sleek.” This team is loaded with young, athletic players. If MLB teams ever decided to have a pickup basketball tournament, I’d take the Yanks on that basis alone.

And they aren’t bad at baseball either. Aaron Judge has picked up where he left off and showed his big rookie year of 2017 was no fluke. The infield trio of Gleyber Torres at second, Miguel Andujar at third and Didi Gregorius at short epitomizes the athleticism of this team. Torres and Andjuar in particular have been revelations this season. Last year, the Yanks went into October with Starlin Castro at second and Todd Frazier at third. That isn’t bad, but it wasn’t a long-term solution. Torres and Andujar look like they’re here to stay.

New York is third in the American League in runs scored. Some of that is a byproduct of being in a hitter-friendly park, but if we narrow the focus to road games, they’re still fifth. What’s more, the coming months are likely to see them hit better, not worse. Gary Sanchez, the young catcher, is having an awful time at the plate, batting a buck-90. Aaron Hicks, another sleek outfielder, is mucking along at .243, though he does take his walks.

First baseman Greg Bird is off the disabled list and capable of providing another power bat, and a left-handed one at that to complement right-handed sluggers Judge and Sanchez. Bird homered yesterday afternoon against the Nationals and it’s scary to think what he could do if he stayed healthy for any length of time.

The Yankee bullpen ranks second in the American League in ERA, again picking up where they left off last year. Aroldis Chapman is pitching some of the best baseball of his career right now, with a 1.26 ERA in the closer’s role. This is another area where the Yanks are doing it in spite of some underperformance—Dellin Betances is capable of much more than his 3.41 ERA.

Finally, Boone has a legitimate rotation ace in Luis Severino, who sits on a 2.27 ERA in 14 starts. This is the second straight big year for the 24-year-old and he’s got a shot at being New York’s first Cy Young winner since Roger Clemens in 2001 and only the second since Ron Guidry’s 25-win year of 1978.

All of the above is a good explanation for why the Yankees are on a pace to win 111 games, a lock to be playing again in October and the betting favorite to outlast the equally red-hot Red Sox in the AL East.

But with a Boston on on a torrid pace themselves—a pace to win 110, with Houston lurking with a potent starting pitching trio of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Dallas Kuechel and with expectations in New York being nothing less than a 28th World Series championship, there’s no room for even the slightest of flaws. And the rotation beyond Severino has to concern Boone.

C.C. Sabathia has been the second-best starting pitcher and the old warrior continues to get it done, with a 3.27 ERA. He’s also 37-years-old. As the fourth starter, a battle-tested vet like that is invaluable. As the second starter…that might be pushing it.

If all were going to plan in the rotation, Sabathia wouldn’t have to be #2. Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray are each more than capable, but both have ERAs in the high 4s. Tanaka has just gone to the disabled list with hamstring problems. Jordan Montgomery, who was providing some back-end stability, has been lost for the year with an elbow injury.

None of this adds up to any reason to panic—or for those of us in New England to take any false hope. Betting on Tanaka and Gray to return to form makes sense and the Yankees have the assets—both in the farm system and in the bank—to go get trade deadline help, although landing a frontline starting pitcher is never a sure thing. How the starting pitching, particularly in the 2-3 spots in the rotation will tell us if the Yankees can separate themselves from the Red Sox and survive the Astros. My resigned guess is that they’ll probably figure it out.

9 Thoughts On The American League Wild-Card Race

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The American League wild-card race has five teams vying for the final spot in the playoffs. Assuming that the runner-up in the Oakland A’s/LA Angels race for the AL West title will be in the wild-card game, that leaves five more teams within five games of each other for the last spot. Those teams are, in order of the current standings, the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians. Here’s nine thoughts on that race as it heads into the homestretch…

*Detroit is the best positioned of the contenders, even though they would be out of the money (by a game and a half) if the season ended today. That’s because the Tigers are also only three games back of the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, while everyone else is six or more out of first place. Detroit is the one team in this group of five that will be reasonably assured of making the playoffs in some capacity, as long they play good baseball down the stretch.

Justin Verlander*In that same vein, how much longer can a team with David Price, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation continue to struggle along? I know Verlander’s having a very tough year, a 4.82 ERA that would be worse if he didn’t have such a pitcher-friendly environment to work in. But Rick Porcello’s strong year has made up for that and the Tigers have swung the bats well this season. Jim Leyland would have managed this team into the playoffs. Brad Ausmus has to prove he can do the same.

*As an avowed Yankee-hater, I always tend to overestimate the boys in Pinstripes, if only because I don’t want to ever let my guard down. Consequently, I’m still thinking they have a big run left in them. Michael Pineda is pitching extremely well, a 2.05 ERA since his return from what amounts to two years’ worth of injuries. Hiroki Kuroda has gotten going, and if Masahiro Tanaka can get back on the mound and be effective again, that’s a tough 1-2-3 Joe Girardi can throw at people. And the inspirational value of Derek Jeter’s final year is the big intangible.

*Where New York has failed this year is in their offense, and I’m going to single out Jacoby Ellsbury. It’s not that the centerfielder who crossed the Rubicon from Boston this past offseason has had a bad year—he hasn’t. He’s got a .340 on-base percentage and does a great job defensively in centerfield. Boston is worse off for not having him this season. But was he really worth the 7-years/$150 million deal the Yanks gave him? Yankee Stadium hasn’t provided the upgrade in power numbers that was expected, and this early years of that contract are when Ellsbury should be most productive. Instead, he’s merely pretty decent.

*I just don’t see where Toronto has the pitching to make it. Mark Buerhle is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00, and that’s mostly on the strength of a great start to the season. The Jays can hit with anyone. Edwin Encarcion is back in the lineup, Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera are having a big years and players like Juan Francisco and Adam Lind are steady contributors. But to make up 4.5 games in a multiple team race in a month-plus requires sustained winning streaks that are only possible with starting pitching.

*Terry Francona is nothing short of a genius to have Cleveland still holding a puncher’s chance, with a 65-63 record. The Tribe’s own pitching woes have been there all year, they dealt Justin Masterson to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline and other than Lonny Chisenhall at third base, have not gotten any pleasant surprises. But Tito still has the Indians over .500. I can’t see them making up five games and leapfrogging four teams with their flaws, but Francona has done a terrific job to even have his team in this conversation.

*Felix Hernandez is a lock for the AL Cy Young Award, and in a race where everyone has vulnerabilities, is the biggest X-factor. Any team that’s on the borderline of being #5 in the league is going to have problems, but when your rotation is the one that comes around every fifth day to King Felix, that’s a very steady anchor. Not to mention an arm that scares the heck out of the A’s or Angels if Felix were able to pitch the wild-card game.

*Was Robinson Cano’s decision to leave New York for Seattle this offseason the deciding factor in this race? Cano has given at least a little bit of life to the Mariners’ punchless offense, batting .328. And though the home runs haven’t been there (11), power is down across baseball, so the effect isn’t as dramatic. And Cano’s great ability to drive the ball in the alleys still has a slugging percentage at a solid .467. If he’s in New York, this race isn’t a race.

*Time for a prediction—I’m picking the second wild card to be…the Kansas City Royals. I’ve got the Tigers chasing them down in the AL Central, but KC’s pitching is still good enough to hold on. And on that same note, watch to see if New York or Toronto can make a run at the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. It’s a tough climb (seven games), but the Orioles just lost Manny Machado for the year and could come back to the back. But those are topics for a separate column. For now we’ll just say the AL Central produces the second wild-card.

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MLB Coverage: Yankee Pitching Keeps Them Going

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They trot out an infield with Lyle Overbay, Chris Nelson and Jayson Nix. Their disabled list could field most of an All-Star team. But in spite of it all, the New York Yankees are still in first place. Coming into Tuesday’s games, the Yanks were 24-14, a game up on Baltimore in the AL East and tied with Texas for the best record in the American League. How the Pinstripes keep doing it is the focus of today’s MLB coverage.

We can summarize New York’s success in three points

  • Very good starting pitching
  • Even better relief pitching
  • Two successful reclamation projects in the everyday lineup

Pitching is what’s driving this team right now and the health of the rotation, along with the return of Mariano Rivera were the two factors that made all the burials that were heaped on this team premature to begin with. When you send C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettite to the mound every fifth day, you’re going to be competitive.

Sabathia and Pettite have been solid and Kuroda has been amazing. A 2.31 ERA in a hitter’s haven like Yankee Stadium is Cy Young-caliber. Phil Hughes and David Phelps have been serviceable at the back end, and the Yanks might have caught a break when Ian Nova had to go to the disabled list and Phelps was moved up to take his place.

Then we come to the pen. Rivera is looking as good as new in his announced final season. He’s closed all 15 of his save chances, has a 1.65 ERA and the setup team in front of him has been outstanding. Joe Girardi has always done an underrated job of piecing together the bridge to the ninth inning, and he’s again got a good righty/lefty combo in David Robertson and Boone Logan, with Adam Warren and his buck-45 ERA being a rising star.

It adds up to a pitching staff that’s fourth in the American League in ERA in spite of the hitter-friendly dimensions and 17 of 19 save opportunities successfully closed. It’s again worth noting that the success most of the pitchers are having is hardly out of the blue, which is why—as an avowed Yankee-hater—it frustrates me that the media buried this team and allowed them to claim an underdog role.

Now if the Yanks were winning games with their bats, that would be in the spirit of the underdog. For the most part, the replacements for Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson have not produced. Kevin Youkilis was having a respectable—albeit not great—year as he stood in for Alex Rodriguez. Now both Youk and A-Rod are on the disabled list. What the Yanks have gotten is big years out of one-time stars in Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner.

When Wells was in centerfield in Toronto and Hafner a DH in Cleveland in the late ‘00s, these were two of the game’s great young players. Things went off-kilter for both of them, but the good working conditions that Yankee Stadium offers hitters has been the tonic both have needed. Wells has a stat line of .349 on-base percentage/.526 slugging percentage, with Hafner at .383/.510. They join holdover Robinson Cano, at .341/.554, in scoring just enough runs to keeping winning games.

The injury situation started to get better this week with the return of Granderson, who likely displaces Brett Gardner in centerfield, though Gardner could also get time in right, where Ichiro Suzuki has not swung the bat well. Teixeira has been moved to the 60-day disabled list and his return put off until June at the earliest. Youkilis will likely be back this month, with Jeter and A-Rod gone until at least the All-Star break.

I think the biggest question mark New York has to deal with is whether the pitching staff can stay healthy. These arms, as presently constituted, can pitch well enough to carry the offense, even in its meager condition—the Yanks are ninth in the AL in runs scored. If Wells and Hafner cool down, it’s likely Granderson will step up, and you might get better play from Gardner and Suzuki as well. Either way, New York can continue to win with pitching.

But is it realistic to think Andy Pettite will make 30-32 starts this year? Will Sabathia continue to hold up? And even giving Kuroda his due credit, a 2.31 ERA in this park isn’t sustainable success for the long haul. It’s really asking Girardi and his pitchers to thread the needle with their health and effectiveness if this success is going to continue.

I think New York can win 87-90 games, and have felt so from the outset. I think it’s further likely that the top of the AL East will be won in that window. But short of a mass return by a lot of players, and those players then enjoying immediate success, I can’t see the Yankees continuing to run with the best teams in baseball.

AROUND THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland has taken off in the AL Central, moved past Kansas City and only trails Detroit by a half-game. The Indians are doing it thanks to a league-best slugging percentage. Mark Reynolds has 11 home runs, Carlos Santana is having a dominant year at the plate and Nick Swisher is producing at his usual consistent levels–.376/.466—that leave me continuing to wonder why Yankee fans had it in for him so much.

Oakland is playing .500 ball, and is hanging with five games of Texas in the AL West. The A’s will get reinforcements this week, when Coco Crisp and Chris Young come off the disabled list and Josh Reddick won’t be far behind. Even better for A’s fans, Brett Anderson has started his rehab stint in the minors. Anderson will soon be back in the rotation, and Oakland can’t continue to pitch as bad as they have—12th in the American League in ERA. It’s a nervous time, because you don’t want to let Texas get too far in front, but as long as Oakland lurks, they can make another summer surge.

MLB Coverage: Uncertainty In The Big Apple

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It’s been the spring of Yankee discontent, with Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira landing on the disabled list and even general manager Brian Cashman breaking his leg. This comes on top of a winter where the loss of Alex Rodriguez for the first half of the season and an autumn where A-Rod’s sudden inability to hit was the hot topic of conversation. What does it all add up to in the Bronx? TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage today will focus in on the Yankees, touch base elsewhere in the Big Apple with the Mets and look at how both teams are likely to measure up against their projected win totals in Las Vegas.

Let me begin by acknowledging that I don’t like the Yankees. Which is a mild way of saying I consider them one of the genuinely diabolical organizations in the history of western civilization. When I try my hand at sober analysis, I’m usually splintered between overrating them out of a mix of fear or trying to prematurely proclaim their veterans past prime.

I’ll cover myself on the last point right away—after years of projecting Andy Pettite’s demise, I’m ready to throw in the towel and say there’s nothing left to do but wait for his performance to tell me so. And coming off a 2.87 ERA in 2012, that hasn’t happened yet. Certainly the same goes for Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter. There are likely to be issues with how much time any of this trio can log, but when they’re on the field, they’re going to be effective.

The issue is going to be how long this veteran core, along with several others, can stay on the field. Pettite missed much of last summer with a broken ankle. Jeter left the American League Championship Series with the same and of course, Rivera tore his ACL. Now we have Granderson with a broken forearm and Teixeira with a wrist injury.

I think it’s safe to say Granderson will be fine and back as expected, but what about Teixeira? Wrist injuries are notoriously difficult to predict, particularly when it comes to gauging how long it will take power to come back. Teixeira is already a player in steady decline—his on-base percentage has dipped each year since 2008 and his slugging percentage since 2009. Then add in that Pettite is 40 years old, Rivera is 43 and Jeter at 38. If this lineup is all healthy at once, they’re very good. But is projecting perfect health for any extended period even realistic?

The age problem is further exacerbated by the solutions at two corner spots. The Yanks re-signed Ichiro Suzuki to play right field. Ichiro is 39, and although he hit .322 after coming over at the trade deadline last season, his overall body of work for the last two seasons is extremely poor. Kevin Youkilis is 34. I’m a Red Sox fan and I’ll always love the guy—it’s not his fault the Yanks were his only viable offer in the offseason—but his body has been breaking down, and he’s missed substantial time each of the last three years. Youkilis needs to be at first base where the wear and tear won’t be as bad, but his role in the Bronx is to cover for A-Rod. And when it comes to the triple play of age, health and performance decline, Rodriguez is a topic all his own.  Finally, ace pitcher C.C. Sabathia has logged in the 200 IP neighborhood every year since 2002 and started to show some faint signs of wear and tear by the end of last season.

Based on my admitted loathing of this team and the tenor of this article, you might conclude that I’m joining in the media pile-on of the Yankees. Actually no. I don’t like the way this spring is unfolding, because there’s so much focus on the Yankee problems, as outlined above, that the potential positives are getting ignored. And even when you decide to cut corners financially and get by on a $200 million payroll, there are going to be some positives.

Let’s start with the fact that all the veterans we just named are pretty good—in fact, very good in most cases. They might not all be healthy at once, but it’s unlikely they’ll be injured at the same time either. Then add in second baseman Robinson Cano, who had the best year of his career a season ago. Cano set a career high in home runs, with 33 and also in walks, with 61. He’s always been a good hitter and now has matured into a reasonably patient one. Brett Gardner is healthy and provides speed at the top of the order. He missed much of last year and declined sharply in 2011, but even in his “decline” year, he still had an OBP of .345. The Yanks can live with that and if Gardner gets back to 2010 levels, he’ll be someone special.

There are some intriguing possibilities in the rotation here as well. David Phelps got 11 starts last year and posted a 3.34 ERA. Ian Nova struggled, but he’s young and only a year removed from 16 wins and a 3.70 ERA. Phil Hughes might not have become the ace he was hyped as when he came out of the minors, but he’s a steady middle-rotation arm. Hiroki Kuroda had the best year of his career last year—even if he doesn’t replicate his 3.32 ERA, a veteran with an ERA in the 4s in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium is more than adequate. And what if Michael Pineda can make it back in June, get in form and give the Yanks a live young arm after the All-Star break?

The bullpen will be fine—Rivera is healthy and determined and David Robertson leads up a reasonably deep corps of arms in front of him. This is an area Joe Girardi has consistently excelled in as a manager, in squeezing the most out of his bullpen.

So there’s still a lot that can go right for the Yankees and they’re only going to be without Teixeira and Granderson for a month. I know it’s a tough division and I’m not sure where I’ll ultimately pick New York to finish. What I am saying is don’t sleep on them. They can get in contention, and if they sneak into the playoffs and have their veterans all get healthy at the end…well, that’s what the Baltimore Ravens just did isn’t it?

Las Vegas is really down on the Pinstripes, with an win prop of 86. I find that absurdly low. In truth, that’s my low end for this team. The fact a team that spends $200 million-plus is allowed to pass itself as an underdog is outrageous, but that’s how spring training 2013 has unfolded.

REBUILDING IN QUEENS

The Mets have been doing the right thing the last couple years, trying to get younger, shed payroll and position themselves to make a run again in the near future. Right now this team is living proof that sometimes doing the right thing really sucks. There’s a lot of players here working their way into positions, the farm system is good, but competing in the NL East is still a year or two away.

Terry Collins can still build his lineup around third baseman David Wright, and on the other corner of the infield, Ike Davis is a talented young power hitter. The middle spots need offensive turnarounds from Daniel Murphy at second and Ruben Tejada at short. Both are young, but both saw their offensive production decline in 2012. That trend needs to reverse immediately, because the outfield is an even bigger question mark. Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter are all works in progress—though you have to like Baxter’s .365 OBP in 179 at-bats.  Overall, this lineup only has two regulars who are 30 or older. One of them is Wright, a genuine star, and the other is catcher John Buck. And Buck is just keeping the seat warm for Travis d’Arnaud, the prize acquisition in the R.A. Dickey trade.

New York still needs to get younger with their pitching. Their fortunes are too dependent on the shoulder of Johan Santana, and thinking Santana will be healthy for even 25-30 starts is even more unrealistic than projecting good health for the Yankee veterans. Frank Francisco, the 33-year-old closer is also dealing with some elbow problems and new starter Shawn Marcum has shown a tendency to be good for about a half a season then run out of steam.

All’s not lost though. Jonathan Niese has established himself as a nice young starter and 23-year-old Matt Harvey posted a 2.73 ERA in ten starts last year. If Dillon Gee can show some consistency, the Mets will have a good group of arms to build around. The bullpen is also deep, with Bobby Parnell more than capable of taking over for Francisco and Brandon Lyon leading up a decent cast of vets behind him.

New York showed up and competed last year and I hope this team is winning the respect of its fans. Their win total in Vegas is only 74, and like the Yankees, I think that’s a number on the very lowest end of the spectrum. I’d take the Mets to go Over—not a winning season yet, but close to it and they’re on the right track.

MLB Playoffs: Don’t Bury The Yankees Just Yet

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Before we get into a recap of Detroit’s Game 3 win in the American League Championship Series last night over New York, let’s be clear on one thing—the Yankees are not dead. Yes, I know they’re in a 3-0 hole in games. Yes, I know their offense shows zero signs of life. But just hear me out.

If anyone knows that a 3-0 deficit can be overcome it’s the Yankees, being the only team in the history of baseball to blow such a lead. Throughout the MLB playoffs, I’ve allowed my pedigree as a Red Sox fan to push my luck on historical references that would get the dysfunctional Sox inserted into the October baseball discussion. But in this case, the historical analogy is obvious and important.

It’s not just that the 2004 Red Sox showed winning four in a row can happen. They showed it can happen when some good pitching matchups are coming your way. The ’04 Sox needed one miracle—they needed a slumping Derek Lowe to stop the bleeding in Game 4.  They got it, then Mariano Rivera inexplicably walked the leadoff batter in the ninth, then Dave Roberts stole second and the rest was history. After that Boston trotted out Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling the next two games, and before you knew it was a seventh game in which all the pressure was on the Yankees.

Consider what New York has ahead. C.C. Sabathia gets the ball tonight and the big fella has been every bit as dominant as Justin Verlander has been this October. Even if you think the 2012 Yankees are frauds, as ESPN New York’s Ian O’Connor wrote this morning, you have to think they should win tonight.

Then tomorrow it’s Andy Pettite facing Doug Fister. The Tiger starter was great in Game 1, but Pettite was extremely good too. Is it really that unthinkable that the Yankees win a postseason game with Andy Pettite on the mound?

If that happens then all bets are off. The series goes back to New York. Even Detroit’s great insurance policy—Verlander on full rest for a Game 7—wouldn’t be the same big edge it appeared at the start of the series. When a series that starts 3-0 gets to Game 7 all the pressure is on the team blowing the lead.

As unbelievable as it sounds, if we’re still playing baseball on Sunday in the ALCS, the Yankees would be playing a home game with the pressure on the visiting team. Who knows what happens then.

Furthermore, the events of last night—the adventure Detroit reliever Phil Coke turned the ninth inning into—show us just how small the margin of error is in this series. Coke gave up two hits, had the tying run at second and ran Raul Ibanez to a full count before finally getting the strikeout to end the game. All of these games are close and the Detroit bullpen still doesn’t inspire confidence.

Finally let’s come to the New York starting pitching. I’m going to ask this—if the Yankees had lost the early games of this series by scores like 5-4, 7-5 and 8-7, would everyone be crying that they’re frauds? I don’t think so. People focus on hitting at the expense of pitching and the fact remains that in every single postseason game this year, New York has gotten a high-quality outing from its starting pitcher. Every single game has been close.

Sure, A-Rod and Swisher are in the tank on the bench. Robinson Cano is an epic slump.  But Sabathia, Pettite and Hiroki Kuroda are all locked in and it’s these three who will define whether the Yankees have a chance to win the next three games.

Am I saying New York will do it? No, because anyone who actually predicted such would be doing it for shock value. I’m saying the same thing a friend of mine told me on a Sunday morning in October in 2004 when I was writing off the Red Sox season—if you win tonight, who knows what happens. The ’04 Red Sox didn’t have to worry about the equivalent of a rested Verlander at the end of the comeback trail, but nor did they have a rested Sabathia to start it.

Let’s just keep a cork in the champagne bottles for now. This has nothing to do with buying into Yankee mythology. This is just looking at pitching matchups, the closeness of games and Detroit’s bullpen issues and saying this is a series that could have a momentum shift in it if New York is allowed off the mat and makes it back to the Bronx.

Last night’s game seemed to fly by and Detroit missed a lot of opportunities to put the game away. The biggest came in the sixth when they had the bases loaded and one out, with Miguel Cabrera at the plate. The Triple Crown winner hit the ball hard-a bullet grounder to third. But Eric Chavez, playing in A-Rod’s stead—made a great backhand and started  a double-play that kept the score 2-0 and allowed the Yanks to make it interesting in the ninth.

Similar defense was not shown by Curtis Granderson on another Cabrera hit. In this case, a long fly ball tailing to the right-field side of Granderson looked playable.  I wish I had seen the play live with the full camera view, because it appeared the centerfielder got an extremely poor break on the ball and it landed for an RBI double. With Granderson looking the worst of the Yankee hitters, he needs to play defense and this hardly helped his cause.

Finally let’s come to Yankee manager Joe Girardi. Why didn’t he bring in A-Rod to pinch-hit for Ibanez in the ninth inning? Say what you will about A-Rod’s slump and Ibanez’ heroics so far in October. That was when Ibanez hit against right-handed pitchers. Here it was the lefty Coke on the mound and all that was needed was a single to tie the game. That Rodriguez didn’t even get the chance to try it suggests either that Girardi has lost his mind or there’s something even more wrong in A-Rod’s relationship to the team than has been visible so far. Take your own guess as to what it might be.

The MLB playoffs return to doubleheader action today. We start in St. Louis at 4 PM ET with a great pitching matchup as Matt Cain meets Kyle Lohse. Then it’s Sabathia trying to save the Yankee season against Tiger lefty Max Scherzer in prime-time.

 

MLB Playoff Picture: Detroit Looks Home Free In AL Central

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The AL Central race is all but over after this weekend, and it’s because Detroit’s pitching come through, while Chicago’s big hitters did not. The Tigers won a series over the Twins, while the White Sox dropped three of four from the Rays. The end result is that Detroit is plus-3 games with the same number left.

Detroit got the usual stellar outing from Justin Verlander on Saturday, who pitched seven innings and allowed just an unearned run. Less expected was great work from Drew Smyly on Friday and Anibal Sanchez on Sunday. Though neither went deep into the game—they combined for 11.2 innings—both starters shut down the Minnesota bats, and though Friday’s opener ended up in Twins’ hands, the Tiger bullpen—with help from a big home run by Prince Fielder—delivered the Sunday victory that all but sealed this division title.

Chicago’s bats had a tough task in taking on Tampa Bay in the Trop, and the White Sox hitters certainly didn’t do anything to exceed expectations. The 2 thru 7 hitters on this team are Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Alex Rios and A.J. Piersynzki, and together they have given Chicago a consistent offense. Over the last four games in Tampa the quintet combined to 14-for-66, a collective batting average of .212. If we mix in the few walks they drew, the on-base percentage is still a terrible .278. Was there any power you ask? Other than a Rios home run, the other hits were all singles. That’s a good way to hit your way home for October and that’s what happened to the Southsiders.

Detroit needs one more win or one more Chicago defeat to make this official. The Tigers are in Kansas City, while the White Sox go to Cleveland for the final series. Let’s note this is the same Indians’ team that just took two of three in Chicago and now needs only one win to end their rival’s season. Let’s further note that if the miracle happens and the White Sox pull back even, it still just means a one-game playoff. And by the way, Verlander would be on full rest to pitch that game. I don’t think it’s jumping the gun to plan on watching the Tigers in action this coming Saturday when the Division Series begins.

Around the rest of the MLB playoff picture…

*Baltimore & Oakland both came up with weekend sweeps. The Orioles pulled even in the AL East with the Yanks and clinched at least a wild-card. The A’s are on the verge of doing the same, holding a three-game cushion on the Angels & Rays with three to play. Coco Crisp came up big for Oakland, with seven hits in the first two games of the wins in Seattle, Brandon Moss had a big five-RBI game on Saturday and Josh Donaldson hit a two-run shot in the ninth inning that same day, a tying blast that set up a later three-run jack by Moss.

Baltimore’s sweep of Boston was aided considerably by Chris Davis, who homered on Friday night and had two hits both Saturday and Sunday. And Jim Thome got two starts in the series and had multiple-hit games both times. The Birds’ sweep went in conjunction with New York splitting four in Toronto and allowing the Orioles to wipe out a 1.5 game deficit. The Yanks had a scare when Robinson Cano needed his hand X-rayed, but they came back negative. Cano otherwise spent the weekend giving Toronto pitching a scare, with a 10-for-16 run through the four games.

Thus, we can realistically conclude that we know the five teams that will be in the American League playoffs. Baltimore, New York and Texas are all clinched. Detroit and Oakland are right on the brink of doing so. But the brilliance of the new playoff format is now shining through, because we don’t yet know who will win the AL East & AL West. The Rangers should take care of business in the West, but they’re still only up two on Oakland and the teams go head-to-head out west. You’d like to say with certainty that Texas will pick up the one win they need to clinch, but they have inconsistent starters Martin Perez and Ryan Dempster scheduled for Monday and Wednesday. And if the Rangers do clinch, they still need to keep an eye on Baltimore/New York, whom they only lead by a game for homefield advantage.

New York and Baltimore both have tougher challenges, particularly the Orioles who go to Tampa. The Yanks theoretically have it easier with a home series against Boston, but the Red Sox have Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz set for Monday and Tuesday and all it takes is either pitcher to perform to his ability one time and the Yanks could find themselves in a one-game showdown come Friday. As a Red Sox fan, hoping for such an outcome is all I have left this season.

Over in the National League, Washington isn’t quite there in the NL East, but they are up three on Atlanta. The Braves are playing Pittsburgh, a dead team walking, so Washington likely needs to take care of its own business one time against Philadelphia at home. The Nationals are tied with the Reds for the top overall seed, a factor that can impact pitching decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday if the NL East doesn’t get settled tonight. The #1 seed doesn’t open Division Series play until Sunday, while the #2 seed plays on Saturday.

The only postseason berth really left up in the air is the final NL wild-card, which has been narrowed to St. Louis and Los Angeles. The Cards are still in firm control with a two-game cushion. They play at Cincinnati, while the Dodgers host San Francisco. In theory, both division leaders can spoil the postseason hopes of a rival they hate. In practice, Johnny Cueto for Cincy pitched yesterday and won’t see the mound in this final series.

If Los Angeles can push this race to the final day, they have Clayton Kershaw set to pitch on Wednesday against a San Francisco team that is all but locked into the #3 seed. Still, making up two games realistically requires a sweep and with Matt Cain making his last regular season start tonight that’s a lot to ask. I know it’s not over, but I’ve already started to look forward to a Cardinals-Braves wild-card game on Friday.

MLB Playoff Picture: AL East Race

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The AL East race is still running close to a dead heat, with the New York Yankees holding a half-game lead on the Baltimore Orioles entering Wednesday night’s games. As part of a look at the landscape in this division race, we’re also going to include the Los Angeles Angels. Because it looks like the Angels’ place in the MLB playoff picture is trying to chase down the AL East runner-up for the second wild-card.

It looks like both Texas & Oakland are in out of the AL West. It looks like Detroit and Chicago will be winner-take-all in the AL Central, with the loser out of the wild-card race. Tampa Bay is slumping and looks finish. With the regular season set to conclude two weeks from tonight, there’s time for hot streaks or slumps to alter the dynamics of the race, but barring something major, the AL East has been paired to New York and Baltimore and LAA is the only team with a real shot at catching the runner-up.

NY Yanks: There’s hope in the Bronx that New York has finally started to stabilize, having won consecutive series over Boston and Tampa Bay and seen Andy Pettite pitch well this afternoon in his first start back from an ankle injury. The Yanks desperately need Pettite to be his old self, because C.C. Sabathia is struggling—a 5.40 ERA in three September starts, including poor outings in games against the Orioles and Rays were the team needed its stopper. Hiroki Kuroda also has a 5+ERA down the stretch.

The offense has been struggling with Mark Teixeira out (and not doing anything spectacular when he was in), and Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher really struggling in the season’s final month. The talk of this team’s fabled bench looks like New York media hype—Eric Chavez’s .484 slugging percentage is an asset, but everywhere else looks no better than any other team.

What New York does have going for them is a bullpen that leads the league in closing its save chances and is 6-for-6 in that department in September. Rafael Soriano ably stepped in for Mariano Rivera and has posted a 41-save/2.02 ERA season, with David Robertson sitting on a 2.98 ERA. There are some depth issues and a Robertson meltdown in a big game at Baltimore reminded everyone how this team would really miss Mariano in big situations. But the overall performance of the pen in the absence of the game’s greatest closer is a vindication to sabermetricians who felt the position was overrated. And when it comes to getting the bullpen lead, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are the two position players acting like they know they’re in a fight for their lives, and while Joe Girardi has squeezed some decent starts out of Phil Hughes and David Phelps.

On balance though, this is a team that’s crawling to the finish line and beating Boston—which everyone is doing—and Tampa Bay—which over the last two nights has proven to be the only team that can’t beat Boston—doesn’t prove anything.

Baltimore: The Orioles have done almost a complete reversal in the way the win since the All-Star break. The overall season numbers tell you they are overly reliant on the home run ball—J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds have all hit 20-plus homers, but all needed improvement in the on-base percentage area. In the month of September, they all seemed to learn how to draw walks. Reynolds, Davis, Wieters, along with second baseman Robert Andino and new acquisition Nate McClouth all have OBPs that range from .365 to .441, more than enough to keep the runs churning. And a closer look at the stats tell you it’s not just a hitting streak—each player really is more patient at the plate and taking their walks. And this doesn’t even factor in how much Nick Markakis contributed, with an OBP over. 400 since the break before breaking his wrist a week and a half ago.

Buck Showalter continues to squeeze what he can out of the starting rotation, as Wei Yin-Chen appears to be wearing down. The Japanese import has turned in a good year, winning 16 games with a 3.98 ERA against a diet of AL East lineups, but that ERA is at 5.25 in September. The staff has been saved by the addition of veteran Joe Saunders—a 2.55 ERA in his last three starts and Chris Tillman. And the staff as a whole has been saved all year by a bullpen that’s somehow gotten even deeper in recent weeks. Showalter put struggling young starters Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter and Jake Arrieta in the pen and all three suddenly became unhittable. They are added to a relief corps that was already anchored by stellar work from Darren O’Day, Pedro Strop and Jim Johnson.

I’m half-expecting Showalter to just junk the traditional notion of the starter and have a few pitchers work a couple innings at a time. While that might be an exaggeration, the manager certainly has the depth to put his starters on a short, playoff-type leash the next two weeks.

LA Angels: The road won’t be easy, as the Angels are three games back of Baltimore, and the power has gone out in September, as Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo all have seen their slugging percentages drop sharply. Trout is still getting on base consistently, but Trumbo has been in a prolonged slump in all facets of his offense since the All-Star break. Pujols is hitting .226 with one home run in September. Mike Scoscia has gotten help from an unlikely source in shortstop Erick Aybar, who is slugging over. 500 in the season’s second half and Kendry Morales is also swinging the bat well.

LAA’s offensive problems put the pressure on a pitching staff that’s up and down and the starters have come through. Zack Greinke, after struggling right after his acquisition from Milwaukee, has really gotten locked in and the rest of the staff—Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana—have all dominated in September. This was the pitching rotation the baseball world feared and why as long as the Angels are breathing, their World Series chances will be taken seriously.

But when you’re trying to come from behind in a playoff race, you can’t cough up games and the Angels’ bullpen is the worst in the American League at closing out their save chances, and they’ve been consistently bad—whether we measure the entire season, the second half or just September. It’s a franchise that essentially is asking to have its heart ripped out.

THE REST OF THE WAY: Not only do the Angels have to play from behind, but they have the toughest schedule. The last two games of a home series with Texas are ahead, as is a visit to Dallas to play the Rangers. LAA will also host Chicago. New York’s only games against a contender are this weekend’s three-game home set with Oakland. Otherwise it’s Toronto, Minnesota and Boston on tap. The Orioles get six games against the dysfunctional Red Sox, four more against Toronto, although a closing series in Tampa could be a little hairy if the race is still close.

It’s going to take everything Mike Scoscia has to steal a playoff berth from either AL East foe. And as far as the AL East race itself goes, a lot hinges on the continued health of Pettite and the possible late September return of Baltimore ace Jason Hammel.