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NFL Analysis: The Giants Pick Up The Pieces After Late Collapse

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The collapse of the New York Giants down the stretch was perhaps the most surprising element of the NFL regular season in 2012. The Giants looked to be coasting home in the NFC East, before they fell apart, watched the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys play for the division title, and the Giants ended up out of the postseason altogether. Was it a temporary swoon or a sign of things to come?

Eli Manning simply has to improve his efficiency in the passing game. The quarterback completed less than 60 percent of his throws, and while New York ranks 11th in yards-per-pass, that’s not high enough to compensate for subpar percentages.


Manning’s protection is arguably the best in the league—no team allowed fewer sacks—so there’s no excuse for him not to play at a high level. Especially when he was a top receiver in Victor Cruz and a quality #2 in Hakeem Nicks to play catch with.

The Giants are at their best when they run the football well, and their rush game was effective last year. The problem is, they didn’t use it nearly enough, ranking in the NFL’s bottom third in rush attempts. There are some injuries on the offensive line that are going to slow them up in the early going, but the season-long goal for head coach Tom Coughlin should be to make the Giant offense again built on power running.

New York’s defense mastered the art of bending, but not breaking last season. They rank poorly in almost every category, but were above the league average in the one that matters—points allowed. The question is whether that state of affairs can continue, or whether the two disparate parts will eventually meet  in the middle.

The answer to that question is going to rest, in large part, on the performance of Jason Pierre-Paul at defensive end. The 24-year-old seemed to be starting a career as one of the game’s best rushers, a true dominant force on the perimeter of a 4-3 scheme. But he slipped to 6 ½ sacks last season. The New York defensive front is still respectable all the way across, including fellow end Justin Tuck. But if they want to be Super Bowl-caliber again, they need someone who can dominate and Pierre-Paul has to be that person.

Las Vegas seems to incline toward the view that the Giants’ late-season slippage was an aberration. Their Over/Under win prop is 9. While that’s not amazingly high, it does require a double-digit win campaign just to cash the Over, and it is narrowly higher than anyone else in the NFC East.

I’d bet 9-7 as the likeliest finish for New York.  But the self-imposed rules of TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis require me to take a position on the win prop. I view 8-8 more likely than 10-6, but at the same time my respect for Coughlin makes me see a really good year as more likely than a really bad one. I’m going to put my chits on the Over.

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NFL Team Previews: New York Giants

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When it comes to respect, the New York Giants as a team don’t get it very easily, while their quarterback seems to get it without any difficulty whatsoever. While Eli Manning is extolled as an elite quarterback without ever having an MVP-caliber season, the Giants can win two Super Bowls in five years and still trail the Eagles and Cowboys in their own division in the hype department—not to mention the crosstown Jets. Will Eli produce a MVP-level year in 2012? Will the Giants win another NFC East crown? TheSportsNotebook takes a look at last year’s champs…

OFFENSE: Look, I’m not as down on Eli Manning as my opening comments might suggest. But elite quarterback means putting up MVP numbers, or at the very least, producing a great start-to-finish season that ends with a Super Bowl run. Instead, Eli’s reputation is built on the fact his team has two magical Januarys, one of which (2007) saw him ride the defense and last year, where he dinked around for three-plus quarters against a New England defense that every quarterback in the league torched all year long. So yes, he’s good. But elite? Let’s get a grip.

Manning has two good receivers to throw to, starting with Victor Cruz and his 1,500 yard breakout year of 2011, and Hakeem Nicks on the other side. Mario Manningham is gone to San Francisco, so there’s an opening for a third receiver. Reuben Randle, a rookie out of LSU, will get every chance at the job.

The running game found its legs, no pun intended, in the playoffs, but was terrible from September through January. That won’t hack it this year and that means the offensive line needs to step it up. With David Baas a steady rock at center and Chris Snee solid at guard, New York can run inside. Will Beatty and David Diehl are pretty good, albeit not standouts at the tackles. Overall, this is a line that can get it done if they stay healthy and cohesive, but they aren’t going to come out and start blasting people off the ball.

DEFENSE: A good pass rush from a four-man front is the formula for success in New York and Jason Pierre-Paul registered 16.5 sacks as a 23-year-old defensive end. The Giants have a special talent in Pierre-Paul and he should settle in for several years of terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. The team could use a better year from Justin Tuck, who still gets high grades from ESPN’s Scouts Inc. for his overall game, but had only five sacks. Linval Joseph holds down the middle against the run. The other tackle is weak, as is middle linebacker, so if you want to beat this team there’s a very narrow window where you might be able to run at the middle. But given the quality of outside linebackers Mathis Kiawnuka and Michael Boley, I’d emphasize the “narrow” element of that window.

The secondary is in good hands. Corey Webster is a solid at one corner, and while Price Amakumara is a significant weakness on the other side, the quality of the safeties ensures plenty of help, with Antrell Rolle in centerfield and Kenny Phillips at strong safety. Overall, there’s quality up and down and at every level of this defense.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9—This is really a low number for a Super Bowl champ with all the strengths outlined above, although the fact they went 9-7 a year ago does give some obvious credibility to the line. But I would still have to go Over.