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The New York Giants Can Get Back On Top In The NFC East

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It was midway through the 2012 NFL season that the New York Giants were riding high. They followed up their Super Bowl run of 2011 with a 6-2 start and a bid for a repeat title was very much alive. Then, Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast. While it’s a stretch to say the natural disaster provided the cause and effect, the hurricane does neatly divide the period between the good times and bad times for the Giants.

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NYGiantsNew York lost five of their final eight games that season, with one win coming after their collapse was completed. Last year was a disaster from the start, with a 7-9 record and a non-playoff year—the fourth time in five years the Giants have finished out of the money.

Yet in spite of all this, New York is a credible threat to win the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles are the early season favorites to take the division, but that’s more the result of oddsmakers simply giving last year’s champ the benefit of the doubt. Meaning no disrespect to the Eagles, their 10-6 season and home playoff loss to the New Orleans Saints don’t exactly mark them an unbeatable favorite.

If you’re skeptical of the Eagles’ ability to win the NFC East two straight years—and I am—the Giants are the natural team to turn to.

Yes, the Dallas Cowboys will be in the conversation, as they always are. But with a track record of December disappointment and a roster slightly less talented than New York’s in any case, there’s no reason to assume the Cowboys will break their run on the 8-8 treadmill.

And those of us who are fans of the Washington Redskins can point to the fact that when Robert Griffin III enters a season healthy, the ‘Skins win the NFC East—that’s a 1-for-1 proposition. But it usually takes me until August to get that level of optimism worked up and even then, I’m not sure I could make a case to persuade an objective observer—the Redskins have too many issues with fundamental play to think about anything beyond game-to-game improvement.

That leaves the Giants as the principal challenger to the Eagles, and I like the chances for Tom Coughlin’s team. The 7-9 record came in a year where about the maximum amount realistically possible, went wrong. Eli Manning was horrendous, throwing 27 interceptions. The pass rush, the key to their 2007 Super Bowl run, and to a lesser extent in 2011, collapsed. The running game was non-existent. The Giants lost their first six games and never really got back into the race.

The 0-6 start points out though, that this team did finish on a good, sustained up note. New York won seven of their final ten games and built some momentum back up for the New Year. Let’s run through a few keys to their success for the coming season.

*The offensive line has to stabilize. This is a unit that’s been in decline, and there are some changes up front. A center has to be identified and Chris Snee has to stay healthy. I expect this unit to be a bit better than in 2013. The days of the Giants lining up and running over people are gone for now, but this is still a group that’s good at pass protection and capable of at least making the running game a respected option again.

*Jason Pierre-Paul has to become a real threat to pressure the quarterback again. The defensive end’s game fell off badly, and with Justin Tuck departed for the Oakland Raiders, it’s Pierre-Paul that has to give the defense it’s big-play ability up front back. New York tied for 25th last year in sacks.

*Rueben Randle has to take that proverbial next step at wide receiver. Randle is in his third year out of LSU and has shown the ability to be a big-play receiver, but the Giants need him to stretch defenses consistently. If he can, we know Victor Cruz can get himself open on mid-range routs. So can Odell Beckham, and another possession target, Mario Manningham, is back in New York this season.

*Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie needs to have a big year at corner. He’s the one capable of being a real lockdown corner, and if you combine that kind of elite play with the steadiness you get from Antrell Rolle at safety, the Giants suddenly have a really good secondary. In spite of the problems with the pass rush last year, the secondary still did a good job limiting big plays, finishing fourth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt.

*Will anyone emerge at running back? New York signed Rashad Jennings from Oakland, and drafted Boston College’s Andre Williams, who finished second in last year’s Heisman Trophy voting. I like Williams a lot, although in either case, the success of these players is tied very directly to the offensive line. Neither is going to create a lot on their own.

I think most of these questions invite an optimistic outlook if you’re a Giants fan. Even the running game, where I’m most pessimistic, has to be better than last year, when no one even cleared 500 rush yards for the season.

That leads us to the big question and that’s the quarterback. I’ve never been a promoter of Eli, but that was only when the media was insisting on ramming him down our throats as “elite” based solely on two miracle January runs, one of which (2007) was far more about the defensive line than about him.

But at the same time, who really thinks Manning is as bad as he looked last year? Or who even thinks that, in the bigger picture, he’s even just average? I still consider him an above-average quarterback and fully expect him to return to that level in 2014.

Thus, we have a team that finished on a strong run in 2013 in spite of their quarterback being an interception machine, having no running game, no pass rush and fumbling the ball more than any team outside the city of Buffalo. How can they not be better?

If there were a great team in the NFC East, I wouldn’t see the Giants as division title material. But in a division whose champion might only be the sixth-best team in the entire NFC, it will take no more than 10 wins to find yourself hosting a playoff game. I won’t make my final predictions until just prior to the September 4 opener, but I’m leaning to picking New York to win the NFC East.

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The New York Giants Stumble Back Into The NFC East Race

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Back on October 10, the New York Giants were left for dead. They played another poor game in a Thursday night loss at Chicago and had fallen to 0-6. But over the last month, the Giants are steadily rising, having won three in a row and talk of whether they can win the NFC East is actually a legitimate topic of discussion.

So let’s discuss the New York Giants NFC East title chances–can Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning and the rest of Big Blue complete a stunning  around and actually host a postseason game in January?

We have to begin by pointing out the obvious. The biggest reason this topic is on the table is because the division is lousy and the Giants’ recent schedule hasn’t exactly been Murderer’s Row.


The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are each 5-5 and are tied for first place. The Eagles have had the good fortune of going to Washington in Week 1 for RG3’s first game back and going to Green Bay this past Sunday when Aaron Rodgers was hurt. And the Eagles are still only .500. The Cowboys are…well, they’re the Cowboy as we’ve come to know them over the past 17 years.

Then there’s the woeful Washington Redskins, who tackle as though they’re playing flag football and have the same 3-6 record as the Giants. But 3-6 means you’re just a game back in the loss column and there’s plenty of football left.

New York, to their credit, used a soft part of the schedule to get themselves back on their feet. They beat Minnesota on a Monday Night game when Josh Freeman made his ill-fated attempt at being the Vikings’ starter. Last week, the Giants won a home game against the Raiders that was far from impressive. In between was a nice win over Philadelphia, but even at that, Eli Manning didn’t play a good game.

Nonetheless, winning three in a row in the NFL is always noteworthy, and when you’re 0-6, it’s cause for celebration, no matter who the opponent. Now, what about the Giants going forward?


Tom Coughlin’s defense is playing very well in the two key component parts, which would be yards-per-attempt allowed in both the running game and passing game. They ranked 3rd and 6th respectively. That’s the only real strength you can draw from the previous nine games. Everything else is about counting on veterans to improve their play.

Manning has been a turnover machine, the worst in the NFL at throwing interceptions, and that fact means the Giants’ defense is giving up points at a rate not commensurate with how well they defend the run and the pass. Another part of the problem for the defense is its own fault though, and it’s the lack of big plays.

Jason Pierre-Paul is bothered by a shoulder injury, and is completely unproductive. Justin Tuck has been the same, depriving the defensive front of its customary pressure from both ends of the pocket. Pierre-Paul and Tuck have combined for just 3.5 sacks this year. If they each had 3.5 sacks individually, this would be a serious problem. The combined lack of pressure is unsustainable and it has ripple effects in that the secondary does not get interceptions against quarterbacks rushing throws.

The running game has been complete disaster all year, ranking 30th in the NFL. David Jacobs is lost for the year, although he didn’t do anything when he was in the lineup. Peyton Hillis has been given a chance and done nothing. Last week, Andre Brown got a crack, and he produced 115 yards in the win over the Raiders. It was the first sign of hope for Coughlin’s offense, and a running game would ease the pressure on Eli.

Thus, the New York Giants NFC East chances come down to basics–get the running game at least back to respectability, Eli takes better care of the ball, the defensive ends get a pass rush, and that all builds off the current strength of the defense to go 6-1 down the stretch and steal a mediocre division at 9-7.

I’m not ready to predict it–Dallas is in a strong situation with wins over all three divisional foes. But given the track record the Giants have shown in recent years for being able to come on strong after being left for dead, they’ve at least put themselves back in the discussion.


THESPORTSNOTEBOOK’S NFC PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
(6)Carolina at (3)Detroit
(5)San Francisco at (4)Dallas
BYES: (1) Seattle, (2)New Orleans

NFL Week 8: NY Giants-Dallas Keys Sunday Card

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The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have gone in opposite directions since the NFL’s opening night when the Cowboys efficiently dismantled last year’s champs in an impressive road win. The Giants won five of the next six. The Cowboys have proven what a lot of us thought at the time—that seeing them play a good game was no surprise, but seeing them be consistent would be. Dallas dropped three of the next five.

So as the rematch in Dallas looms in the Sunday afternoon late window, the 4:30 PM ET Fox telecast that will lead directly into the network’s World Series coverage, it’s the Cowboys who find themselves in a must-win spot at 3-3. They can’t dig any deeper of a hole in the NFC East, where they’ll either trail by a half-game or 2  ½ games at game’s end. And the battle for the final playoff berths is looking crowded with teams like Seattle, Arizona, even Green Bay, messing around on the playoff fringe.

The health situation is starting to favor New York. After an early season of being riddled with injuries, they are reasonably healthy right now. Dallas has lost inside linebacker Sean Lee to injured reserve, potentially opening up the Giants’ ability to run the ball between the tackles and in turn creating passing lanes for Eli Manning and a now-healthy receivers corps.

It’s very difficult to see Dallas playing anywhere close to what they did in that season opener—but given that game was a decisive win on the road, it won’t take that level of excellence this time around to scrape out a narrow win at home. But they need to show they can run the ball and stop the run, and if they do that, things will take care of themselves.

Oddly enough, I kind of like Dallas’ chances here. They’re about due for a really good game and to do a Super Bowl tease again. New York’s due for one of their clunkers that ensure regular seasons stay interesting in the Big Apple. The guess here is that Tony Romo plays well, the Cowboy corners make some plays and Dallas escapes with a narrow win.

There’s only one other game in the late window on Sunday and its Oakland-Kansas City. This game begs the philosophical question of whether any game the Chiefs are favored in (they’re giving 1.5 points at home) could possibly be worth watching. The answer is no.

Here’s the rundown on the early games on Sunday for NFL Week 8, with priority given to the two games that will be seen by most of the country (St. Louis-New England from London on CBS, and Washington-Pittsburgh on Fox), followed by the prime-time games of New Orleans-Denver on Sunday and San Francisco-Arizona on Monday.

New England-St. Louis: I think this game is going to be close and the seven points the Patriots are favored by is too high. I just wrote yesterday that those hitting the panic button on this New England team are overreacting, and I stand by them. But the Pats are beaten up with a lot of nagging injuries—reports are that tight end Aaron Hernandez will miss this game—and they desperately need to get to the bye that comes next week.

St. Louis is capable of causing Tom Brady some problems in the pocket, with the pressure that Robert Quinn and Chris Long can bring from the ends. If the Rams were playing last year’s Pats, I’d like this as an upset special. But this year’s Pats team can run the ball, and even with backup Brandon Bolden out, I see Stevan Ridley being effective on some quick traps and draws that keep the pass rush honest. That’s why New England survives—but the fan base needs to be ready for some anxious moments.

Washington-Pittsburgh: You’ve got to give Mike Tomlin some credit—his defense still ranks high in spite of injuries to all kinds of key players from early, from James Harrison to Lawrence Timmons to Troy Polamulu. If the playmakers haven’t been out, they’ve been nicked up, but Pittsburgh is still in the top 10 against both the run and pass. They’ll need it all to match up with the Redskins offense, where the effectiveness of the conventional running game behind Alfred Morris has been overshadowed by RG3’s heroics.

Washington hasn’t done much defensively this year, but they have played well against the run, meaning that Pittsburgh’s one burst of effectiveness of the ground last week in Cincinnati probably doesn’t sustain itself. But the ‘Skins secondary is awful and there’s no reason to think Ben Roethlisberger won’t put up some huge numbers.

RG3 is keeping the ‘Skins in every game and at 3-4, if they steal this win, they stay in the playoff hunt. As a fan, I’m hoping fervently it happens and even talking myself into optimism. But analytically, it’s hard to explain to a neutral observer why this Washington team is good enough to beat—not just compete with, but beat—a still-desperate 3-3 team with Big Ben behind center and playing at home.

Carolina-Chicago: If you’re a betting man, this could be the week to jump on the Panthers. They’re getting destroyed in the press, the Bears are on a short week and coming off a win over a divisional foe (Detroit on MNF) and they aren’t always known to get consistency at the quarterback spot. Plus, you’d be getting 7.5 points with Carolina, so you don’t even to count on Cam Newton making a play down the stretch to win the game. This one’s closer than the experts think.

Seattle-Detroit: If the Seahawks are going to be a playoff team, this is the kind of road win they need. Their physical defense can cause problems for Detroit’s soft offensive line. Their running game can control tempo. Russell Wilson’s mobility can neutralize the Lions’ good pass rush. And if they turn it into a grind-it-out game, you can count on Detroit to shoot themselves in the foot with 10-11 penalties. I like Seattle to prove its mettle in a road game here.

Atlanta-Philadelphia: It’s a mark of how much the Eagles are struggling that this game didn’t displace Washington-Pittsburgh as the game Fox would show to most of the country. But Philly is favored by three. Even giving them homefield courtesy, that still means bookmakers see them as even to Atlanta all things considered. Are we watching the same games? The sportsbook guys are smarter and richer than me, so I can’t dismiss it. But with Atlanta rested and coming off a bye I can’t see why they shouldn’t win.

San Diego-Cleveland: Norv Turner and A.J. Smith are on one sideline. The entire Cleveland Browns franchise is on the other. Could be a more incompetence be clustered in one building than this?

Miami-NY Jets: The winner of this game keeps pace with New England—in fact the Dolphins are only a half-game out and tied with the Pats in the loss column, so the Fish could move into first place if there’s an upset in London. This game was an intense, grinding overtime battle when the Jets won in Week 2 down south. More of the same on Sunday in the Meadowlands, but I like Miami coming off a bye and the Jets perhaps a little soft after a week of some semi-positive press following their near-miss in New England.

Jacksonville-Green Bay: The  14.5 points Green Bay is favored by is far and away the biggest spread on the board this week. Charles Woodson is out for the Packers, but I suspect GB would trade Woodson’s absence for that of Maurice Jones-Drew any day. How is Jacksonville even going to score, much less compete?

Indianapolis-Tennessee: We talked in the recap of last week’s games how these teams were quietly strengthening the AFC South middle class behind Houston and the winner of this one is a viable contender for a playoff spot in a weak conference. You can see Chris Johnson gaining momentum in the running game and I think that continues, as the Titans win decisively at home.

PRIME-TIME

Sun Night: New Orleans-Denver: The Over/Under on this game is 55.5, easily the biggest on the board for totals this week, so there’s no confidence in either defense to slow down Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. That lack of confidence in the defenses is justified, so the question becomes who can make just enough stops to buy time for their own offense and who can at least feign interest in the running game well enough to balance the play-calling.

The answer in both cases is Denver, though not by a lot. Elvis Dumervil and Derek Wolfe represent a little bit better package at defensive end than do Wil Smith and Cameron Jordan on the other side. Denver’s ability to bring Von Miller on the blitz brings them an added dimension. With the running game, the Broncos can at least try it with Willis McGahee. The Saints can’t even do that, nor do they pretend to. Brees likely will have Jimmy Graham on the field, so that at least helps.

But the pattern with this Denver team is clear—unless you put them down 20, you probably don’t win, and maybe not even then (although since Norv Turner won’t be coaching an A.J.Smith-lineup in this game my guess is the Broncos don’t rally from a big deficit here). Denver’s also got homefield and is coming off a bye. Take Peyton, although be wary of laying the six. The Over is the best bet in this game.

Mon Night: San Francisco-Arizona: From the highest total on the board on Sunday night to the lowest on Monday night, as the Niners-Cardinals Over/Under number is 38—only the Jets-Dolphins at 39.5 joins this game under the 40 threshold.

Let’s acknowledge Arizona deserves some respect at home and the seven points they’re getting in what’s likely to be a low-scoring game might seem a little high on the side. And maybe if the game stays close, Larry Fitzgerald could make a game-changing play. Yes, let’s acknowledge that.  But then let’s get to reality—the San Francisco offense is better balanced, with Frank Gore giving them a running threat that Arizona doesn’t have. The Niners are in close to pristine health, while Arizona is, at the very least banged up, even though key players like defensive end Calais Campbell will be in the lineup. And San Francisco proved last Thursday night against Seattle that Alex Smith is still better than his divisional counterparts at managing a brutal war of a game like this one is likely to turn into. Oh, and that reference to Thursday reminds me—San Fran’s had a couple days extra prep time.

It boils down to a 49er win and perhaps a great night for the city of San Francisco—Game 5 of the World Series is scheduled tonight and it’s at least possible the baseball Giants (not to sound like Chris Berman) could be in position to clinch.