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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Sweet 16 Report: Breaking Down The Bracket’s Best

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Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament is a month away, with the bracket being announced on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17. Here at TheSportsNotebook we’re going to a weekly check-in on the top 16 teams, as seeded by ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi. The purpose will be to chronicle recent form, looking back on each team’s midweek game and ahead to the weekend. The Selection Committee seeds teams based on overall body of work, but we also want to know who’s really playing their best basketball as we build to March Madness. With that, here is a rundown on Lunardi’s Sweet 16…

#1 SEEDS: Indiana, Duke, Florida, Miami—I made no secret that I think Miami is the best team in the country, although the Hurricanes turned in a flat performance this week in beating Florida State 74-68. The ‘Canes got nothing from their inside people, and needed a combined 15-of-25 shooting from guards Shane Larkin and Durand Scott to get out of Tallahassee with a win. Clearly, it was not a championship-caliber effort from Miami. Just as clearly though, this was not an easy spot—they were coming off a big win over North Carolina, getting love from the national media and going into the building of an archrival. I’m ready to dismiss the result, and we’ll see what happens Sunday night when they visit Clemson.

Florida played a complete and well-balanced game in beating Kentucky 69-52 on Tuesday, a game remembered more for the sad season-ending ACL tear of Wildcat center Nerlens Noel. This makes Noel the second prominent SEC athlete to suffer a serious knee injury, joining South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore. Just let these kids go straight to the pros. If a college degree is that important to them, they can get tuition written into their first contract.

Duke got a win over North Carolina, but the 73-68 result was more escape then decisive victory. Unlike Miami, this wasn’t a trap game for the Dookies—while it was against an archrival, it was also at home. In the end, the Blue Devils were saved by the fact this UNC team can’t do anything inside and has to try and win games by hitting three-pointers. They didn’t do that, it was enough for Mason Plumlee’s 18 points/11 rebounds to carry the day. Plumlee is nursing an ankle injury, but expected to play Saturday evening in Maryland (6 PM ET, ESPN).

I’m not at all sold that Indiana’s going to be on this top line—or even in the discussion for it—when we get to March 17. The Hoosiers still have road games with Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan. In the meantime though, IU buried Nebraska earlier this week and hosts Purdue on Saturday afternoon (2 PM ET, ESPN), so all will be well until Tuesday’s visit to East Lansing.

#2 SEEDS: Syracuse, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan: These seed projections are up-to-date, so it includes Syracuse’s loss to UConn on Wednesday. The Orange were ice-cold from behind the arc, going 4-for-23 from three-point range. And that’s even with their main outside shooter, James Southerland, hitting 4-of-9. You do the math on how cold the rest of the lineup was. Syracuse goes to Seton Hall on Saturday, a game that should give them little trouble with getting back on track.

Michigan State is finally getting some attention after their 75-52 beatdown of Michigan, a win that was a complete team effort on both the scoring and rebounding fronts—and speaking of rebounding, Sparty hammered the Wolverines on the glass.  I had liked the way Michigan State was playing and thought they would win at home, but the complete meltdown done by the Wolverines was concerning. UM has now lost three of their last four in a tough schedule stretch that sent them to Indiana and Wisconsin prior to Tuesday.

In those losses, freshman forward Glenn Robinson III has scored a combined eight points. Clearly, he needs to step it up dramatically. Although I won’t be as tough on the kid as ESPN analyst Dan Dakich was on Tuesday. Dakich seems to be carving out a persona as the angry coach on the airwaves, which only comes off well if you were actually a big winner as a coach yourself, or a top player. The man Dakich played for, Bob Knight, could pull it off. Michigan gets a needed respite in its schedule—they’ll play Penn State at home on Saturday, then get a week off. Michigan State visits Nebraska.

Gonzaga came up with an impressive road win last night at St. Mary’s, controlling the game throughout in a 77-60 win. The Zags were more efficient in every way that mattered. They controlled the glass, were more consistent inside the three-point line and forced the Gaels to try and win the game from downtown. St. Mary’s launched 35 treys and only made 12, making the result a virtual foregone conclusion. Gonzaga visits lowly San Francisco this weekend.

#3 SEEDS: New Mexico, Louisville, Arizona, Kansas—New Mexico is the most overrated team in Lunardi’s Sweet 16. The bracketologist knows much more about the process than I do, so I’ll grant that there’s probably a good reason or seeding them this high. But there is no way the Lobos will live up that. This is a team that barely got by a bad Fresno State team earlier in the week, falling behind 31-20, surviving 54-48, and doing nothing inspiring in the process. Center Alex Kirk hurt his hand in the process, though he’s expected to play tomorrow against Boise—a competitive team that’s fighting for NCAA consideration. If New Mexico really ends up a 3-seed, I know that’s at least one 6-seed I’ll pick to make the Sweet 16.

Louisville came back off that five-overtime marathon in Notre Dame last week to put on an impressive display against St. John’s. All the Cardinals’ key parts functioned in the 72-58 win. Russ Smith scored, knocking down 18. Gorgui Dieng crashed the glass hard, with 17 rebounds. And Peyton Siva distributed, handing out six assists. When Louisville plays like this, they’re tough to handle, and next up is a road game with mediocre South Florida on Saturday.

Arizona is now reeling, with two straight losses. Last night’s 71-58 loss in Colorado dropped them from a first-place tie in the Pac-12. The Wildcats need to get their defense back on track as they pay a visit to Utah on Sunday.

Kansas finally reasserted itself with its easy 21-point home win over Kansas State on Monday night. The Jayhawks played like a team who had lost three in a row and had an angry coach—by that I mean they played with some desperation and it showed in their 39-20 dominance of K-State in the rebounding category. It would have been enough to win even if guard Ben McLemore hadn’t lit it up for 30 points.

#4 SEEDS: Kansas State, Marquette, Ohio State, Georgetown—The Hoyas are playing the best basketball of this quartet, having knocked off fellow 4-seed Marquette back on Monday night thanks to a solid game from forward Otto Porter (21 points/7 rebounds) and a terrific defensive effort against Marquette’s Vander Blue, holding the Golden Eagles’ go-to player to seven points.

Even prior to Monday though, Georgetown has been coming on. It was their sixth win in a row and that includes Notre Dame, Louisville and St. John’s. The Hoyas play tonight at Cincinnati, a solid NCAA-caliber team in their own right. The Friday night game will be on ESPN at 9 PM ET and is being played tonight, because ESPN has empty space from its normal Friday NBA coverage due to the All-Star break.  As for Marquette, they have a tough home game with Pitt tomorrow (1 PM ET, CBS) and since an early January run of three nailbiting wins, the Golden Eagles have yet to post a notable victory. I think their season’s best days are already done.

Ohio State beat Northwestern this week and visits Wisconsin for a big game on Sunday (1 PM ET, CBS). The Badgers are currently projected on the 5-line by Lunardi, so that game probably decides who will be in the 4-hole at this time next week. The Buckeyes are doing an adequate job getting scoring help for brilliant forward DeShaun Thomas, but need more rebounders to step it up.

Kansas State will look to bounce back from its Monday beatdown in Lawrence with a key Saturday night game against Baylor (7 PM ET, ESPNU). The Wildcats are still tied with Kansas atop the Big 12.

IF I HAD TO PICK TODAY: I’m settled on Miami as my team to beat for the national championship, and I’m comfortable with Michigan State as my second-best team. At this point, I’m not totally sold on anyone else, and would probably look outside the Sweet 16 seeds for a couple darkhorses for the Final Four (Butler might make sense, and if I’m really uncertain I’ll just go with my heart and pick Wisconsin). But beyond Miami and Michigan State, I’m waiting to find a couple more teams I can feel confident about in picking to get to Atlanta.

Sweet 16 Previews: Friday Night

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Tonight’s the last night in college hoops where you have to keep the remote control at the ready, with more than one game at a time. It’s Sweet 16 action in the Midwest and South brackets, with the games in St. Louis and Atlanta. TheSportsNotebook looks at all four regional semis on Friday night…

SOUTH: Baylor-Xavier (7:15 PM ET, CBS)
If there’s been two teams more frustrating to their fan bases over the long season, I’m not sure who they might be. Both the Bears and Musketeers often seem on the verge of excellence, before coming up short in a key moment. One of them will die that way tonight. Xavier may be the 10-seed in this bracket, but don’t forget this is a team a lot of people saw as having darkhorse Final Four potential at the start of the season. When you have the superior backcourt and the single best player on the floor in Tu Holloway, you have to be given a serious chance to win. Baylor counters with raw muscle on the interior, led by Perry Jones III, who scores, rebounds and blocks shots. Quincy Acy hits the glass hard himself, and Quincy Miller can pick up the scoring slack if too much attention gets paid to the others.

With each team’s core strengths running opposite, let’s look at the mirror image. Xavier brings a talented, but inconsistent center in Kenny Frease. He was on his game against Lehigh last weekend, with 25 points and 12 rebounds, a performance that saved his team’s season. On Baylor’s side, two-guard Brady Heslip lit up Colorado by connecting nine times from behind the arc. And point guard Pierre Jackson is capable of running the floor. While I would not expect Heslip to repeat his performance, Jackson can keep the flow of play moving and the Baylor big men involved in the offense. It’s asking a lot for Frease to match up with the raw quantity Baylor’s going to throw at him. If Frease is uninvolved, Baylor will win big. If he is involved, Baylor will win a nail-biter.

MIDWEST: Ohio-North Carolina (7:47 PM ET, TBS)
All the buzz in this game is about whether North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall will play, and this is the rare issue where I actually think the media is understating how important this is. Before Marshall was inserted into the lineup in January 2011, the Tar Heels were a borderline NCAA team, another group of underachieving big men. Then when Marshall came in, suddenly the big guys were involved in the offense, and Carolina immediately transformed into a team that was too muscular to handle. Their size on the frontcourt is certainly the calling card and what separates them from other national contenders, but if you don’t have the one guy that can make it all go, everything bogs down.

Having said all that, UNC got a huge break in playing Ohio tonight. The only way I can see the Bobcats winning is if they light it up behind the arc. The team’s best three-point shooter is Nick Kellogg, son of CBS analyst Clark Kellogg. That’s a lot to ask of one kid, and at least for tonight, the size advantage alone will be enough for Carolina. As of Friday morning, the report on Marshall is that the cast is off his broken wrist (since Wednesday), but he hasn’t handled a basketball yet. Roy Williams’ “inclination” is not to play Marshall, but we all know that coaches are about as straightforward as politicians in situations like this. My guess is that Marshall tries to play, but I don’t see how he can be anywhere near the player he had been. I like North Carolina to survive tonight, but I’m backing off my pick on them to win the NCAA title unless I see clear evidence this evening that he can be effective.

SOUTH: Indiana-Kentucky (9:45 PM ET, CBS)
It’s a matchup steeped in college basketball lore, as these proud rivals hook up. This is the second time they’ve met in the modern NCAA Tournament (post-1976). The first came in the 1983 Mideast Regional, the most exciting regional ever, when Kentucky took advantage of an Indiana team hit with an injury to its best player, Ted Kitchel, and won a close game. And while it doesn’t meet the 1976 baseline, the programs also met in 1975, when the best team Bob Knight ever coached was handed its only loss of the season in a 92-90 thriller. That afternoon Indiana was without its best player in Scott May.  Indiana’s healthy tonight—yeah, I know Jordan Hulls is out, but to put him in a context with Kitchel and May would be insulting to say the least—but how much does it matter?

I’m trying to think of a reasonable way Indiana can win this game—“reasonable” meaning something other than a totally random 75 percent shooting from the floor hot streak, or a complete meltdown by Kentucky—and it’s hard to come up with one. Can IU’s Cody Zeller have a big game underneath? Not likely, with Anthony Davis patrolling the paint? Can they win the battle in the backcourt? Even with Hulls in the lineup, none of IU’s guards could crack Kentucky’s top three. How about coaching? Sure, Tom Crean does a great job with the Hoosiers, but it’s not as though John Calipari is a moron on the other sideline. But there is one reason we can come up with—Indiana already has beaten Kentucky, a 73-72 thriller in Bloomington back in December, won on a buzzer-beating trey by Christian Watford. So the scenario is this—Crean somehow finds a way to keep this game ugly and competitive for about thirty minutes. At that point the psychological edge shifts to the underdog—and don’t think fans of the Baylor-Xavier winner won’t be screaming for the posteriors off for both the drama of the upset and the chance to avoid the best team in the country on Sunday. If it’s close down the stretch, Indiana knows it can beat Kentucky. The Wildcats’ freshman nerves may kick in. And while Calipari’s track record as a coach speaks for itself, he’s had some issues in these end-game NCAA situations.

The scenario is reasonable enough, although it’s a pretty narrow window. Crean has upset a top-ranked Kentucky team before—back in 2003 his Marquette team blew out the Wildcats in a regional final. But it’s a little easier to make that happen when Dwayne Wade is in your backcourt. Talent prevails tonight and it’s Kentucky going away.

MIDWEST: N.C. State-Kansas (10:17 PM ET, TBS)
The last game of the night looks like the best. Kansas may be the two-seed, while N.C. State is in the 11-spot. The Jayhawks may get a partisan crowd behind them in nearby St. Louis. But you can make a strong case that the Wolfpack have five of the seven best players on the floor. The Pack are athletic at each spot and all five starters average in double figures. The most important players tonight will be C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell, the best rebounders, who have to try and keep Kansas’ Thomas Robinson at bay.

Which brings us to the rub in this whole 5/7 equation. Kansas may only have two of the top players in tonight’s game, but they’re the best two. Robinson does it all in the post and is the kind of inside man who can singlehandledly spare his team an upset loss. Tyshawn Taylor can control the action from the backcourt. If it’s close down the stretch—and presumably it would have to be if we’re going to talk about an upset—do you have confidence that Mark Gottfried can outmaneuver Bill Self? The Kansas coach has his critics, but I’m not one of them. In a good game, Kansas pulls it out. But with the injury to UNC’s Marshall, N. C. State is a good enough team that I’m ready to say that this is the game for the Final Four.