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NBA All-Star Break Report

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It’s All-Star Weekend in Orlando, the halfway point of the NBA season. It seems like not so long ago I was sitting in front of the TV set on Christmas afternoon watching the Celtics-Knicks from MSG and then enjoying Bulls-Lakers with some relatives from Chicago. Most voices I hear on the mainstream media bemoan this shortened, compressed schedule, but I’m all for it. There’s good games each night and a regular season that’s used strictly for seeding and to eliminate only the worst teams is cut back.

There are very few surprises in the NBA, so even though my Oklahoma City-Chicago pick for the NBA Finals is holding up nicely, that’s just evidence that the league can be so predictable even I can get in the ballpark of being right. Here’s a general overview of how the landscape looks as the stars come out in Orlando…

EASTERN CONFERNENCE

The Contenders

Miami (27-7): We looked at the Heat in-depth earlier this week, so we’ll briefly summarize here. The media perception of a Big Three with no real supporting cast is right on target. Miami needs Udonis Haslem or Joel Anthony to be more consistent rebounding if they’re going to win a championship. Give this team credit for an offense that can play both fast-paced and disciplined all at once, and for the ability to lock down defensively when they have to.

Chicago (27-8): The Bulls really lock it down on defense, they go to the boards and they know how to run an offense. What they need is a reliable second scorer behind Derrick Rose. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are solid up front as rebounders and in supporting offensive roles, but it’s a lot to ask of Rose for him to carry the offense at big moments. If Boston decides to break up the band, Ray Allen would have maximum impact right here.

The Challengers

The five teams below are the leaders in the most interesting regular season in the East—for top four seeding position and homecourt advantage in the first round, and to establish themselves as a team who can at least make the two contenders sweat in the second round.

Indiana (21-12): Larry Bird has done a great job putting this team together, with Roy Hibbert being a legitimate force in the paint, the second-best center in the East behind Dwight Howard. There’s solid component pieces around him as the entire lineup scores in double-figures. The Pacers do everything well, from defense, to the halfcourt offense to rebounding. What they need—and no one should know this better than Bird—is an undisputed leader who will demand the ball and take over at key moments in big games.

Philadelphia (20-14): Another team TheSportsNotebook did a feature on this week. Their defense—ranked higher than the more heralded Chicago D—both in raw point totals and after the stat guys adjust for tempo—makes them a serious contender They need better play from Andre Iguodala to hold off the Knicks in the Atlantic Division.

New York (17-18): There are two more teams with better records, but none with better futures than the Jeremy Lin-led Knicks. With the frontcourt of Melo, Amare Stoudamire and Tyson Chandler, Lin is the last piece of the puzzle in the starting lineup. Furthermore, the new York defense is underrated, ranking 7th in the NBA once you adjust for their fast-paced tempo. Where they rank poorly is offensive efficiency, a direct reflection on the lack of a floor leader for most of the first half. Now that Lin is in the house, I see New York passing Philly and winning the division.

Orlando (22-13): A great job by head coach Stan Van Gundy, who’s kept the Magic with a solid record amidst all the talk about where Dwight Howard’s next job is. But either Howard’s going to get traded, the rumors will become too much, or the fact that Jameer Nelson is not playing well at the point standing to eventually sink Orlando. Someone besides Dwight and power forward Ryan Anderson needs to be consistent.

Atlanta (20-14): The Hawks have a nice inside-out combo with Josh Smith down low, Joe Johnson in the backcourt, and then you have Jeff Teague running the show. What they need to more of is rebound, or their recent struggles are going to become permanent.

The Playoff Border

Boston (15-17): As long as the Celtics don’t break up the Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen trio, they’ll make the playoffs. But is it wise to hold on to the core? Boston still plays very good defense, meaning they can reverse their recent slide and perhaps still grab that coveted #6 spot in the East, and avoiding Miami or Chicago. But the offense is poor, and the rebounding has become woeful. If I were Danny Ainge, it’s time to take 50 cents on the dollar for Garnett.

Cleveland (13-18): There’s hope again in Cleveland, with Kyrie Irving in town. He’s paired up with veteran power forward Antwan Jamison to give the Cavs a two-man game that’s at least made them competitive and could even steal a playoff berth if Boston throws in the towel.

Milwaukee (13-20): It’s an indictment of the Eastern Conference that a team that basically does nothing well, and whose best player in Brandon Jennings is making noises about what big market he wants to go, is actually in the playoff discussion. If Jennings stays focused, Drew Gooden comes back healthy down low and Ersan Ilyasova can keep chipping in double-digit nights, the Bucks could beat out the Cavs. Then it depends on Boston’s intentions.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Contenders

Oklahoma City (27-7): Kevin Durant is making a spirited run at the MVP award, and the debate of Durant vs. LeBron will likely be a big story in the second half of the season. Don’t overlook that Russell Westbrook is having a huge year himself at the point, while James Harden is instant offense off the bench. Defensively, the Thunder get good work down low from Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. What they need to do much better is play defense. Being 13th in defensive efficiency is good enough to win a lot of games with an offense like this, but it won’t win you a title.

San Antonio (24-10): The Spurs have made a run back into contention behind Tony Parker’s magnificent season at the point, and Tim Duncan continuing to be reliable in the post, and then Greg Popovich blends in a deep bench. San Antonio needs to upgrade their defense and rebounding substantially between now and the playoffs, but they have broken out of the pack and established themselves a clear contender again in the West.

The Challengers

The gap between contender and challenger in the West is a lot grayer than it was in the East. Here, the challengers are all realistic threats to move to the top tier, but just haven’t done so yet.

LA Clippers (20-11): I think the Clips will be a top-tier contender by May, as the Blake Griffin-Chris Paul combo is getting solid help from Mo Williams in the backcourt and Caron Butler at small forward. Don’t overlook the work of center DeAndre Jordan who joins Griffin in making the Clippers one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Like the contenders, defense has to be improved.

Dallas (21-13): Forget the Mavericks’ reputation as an offensive-oriented team. Dallas is doing it with defense, and Dirk Nowitzki has his average back to 20 ppg. What will hold the Mavs’ back is if they can’t re-establish the depth that was so vital to last year’s championship run and if they can’t improve their offensive efficiency. Both objectives are likely going to be intertwined.

LA Lakers (20-14): You might see its respect that leads me to say the Lakers are still on a par with the other teams listed here. You also might say it’s being outdated, given that Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are the only three legitimate players in the regular rotation, and Gasol is obviously unhappy over persistent trade rumors. But it’s also fear—I loathe this team to a level I usually reserve for the Dallas Cowboys and right behind the New York Yankees. I’m afraid if I write them off then Kobe, already averaging 28 ppg, will lead them back into the top tier. Maybe it’s not rational to think that what goes up on a sports website based out of Wisconsin will affect a basketball game in Los Angeles, but I can’t take any chances.

The Playoff Border

Again, the lines between tiers is not sharp in the competitive West. Any of the teams above could at least win a first-round series…so long as they make it in.

Houston (20-14): Kevin McHale’s doing a great job with this team, and with the Celtics being depressing, this is becoming the team I’m ready to fall back on as a fan for the second half. The backcourt is great with Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin, while Luis Scola scores in the post. There’s no one great rebounder, but as a team the Rockets hit the boards well.

Memphis (19-15): If the Grizzlies get Zach Randolph healthy at the power forward spot, move them up a tier immediately. As they stand right now, the backcourt of Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo , and the frontcourt scoring of Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are going to make this team a tough out in the West, as last year’s #1 seed, San Antonio, ruefully found out in the first round.

Portland (18-16): They’re fading and there’s been bad news in the headlines, as Greg Oden’s season-ending surgery probably also means the end of any flickering hopes for a career revival. As ESPN’s Michael Wilbon pointed out, from Bill Walton to Sam Bowie to Greg Oden, this franchise can’t get a break when it comes to big men. Of course as ESPN’s Bill Simmons also pointed out, the potential healthy problems with Bowie and Oden were there out of college and a lot of GMs would ‘ve chosen Michael Jordan ahead of Bowie or Durant ahead of Oden, even based on what we knew at the time. But I digress. Lamarcus Aldridge and Jamal Crawford make this team competitive each night, but survival is going to be tough the rest of the way.

Denver (18-17): Does anyone else think its wrong that center “Nene”, always known by only a first name, has now decided to go by Nene Hilario? The mystery is gone. It’s like if we knew Callen’s full first name on NCIS Los Angeles instead of just calling him “G”. Anyway, the Nuggets are like Portland in that they are sliding and an injury to Danilo Gallianari, the team’s best player, won’t help.

Minnesota (17-17): With Denver & Portland sliding, I like the T-Wolves to slide into the 8-spot in the west and end the city of Minneapolis’ depressing sports run of late (since the Vikings lost the 2009 NFC Championship Game and the Twins were swept out of the 2010 AL Division Series, the city’s teams have been in a funk). Kevin Love is an MVP candidate, with a 25/14 nightly average, Ricky Rubio is an exciting point guard, while Nikola Pekovic and Michael Beasley are good complementary pieces up front. Yes, I think this team not only makes the playoffs, but is a viable shot to pull an upset in round one.

The Life Isn’t Always Fair Group

Both of these teams would be contenders for the playoffs in the East…

Utah (15-17): Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap give them an inside presence each night, but they need backcourt help. Since point guard Devin Harris is from Wisconsin, I feel morally obligated to give him a shout-out, and he does do a nice job playmaking, but without some offensive punch the Jazz aren’t going to get over the top in the West.

Golden State (13-17): I really grew to like head coach Mark Jackson when he was working with Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy on the ABC/ESPN broadcasts, and would like to see him succeed. He’s got the firepower, with Monta Ellis, David Lee and Stephen Curry, who combine for nearly 60 ppg on their own, but the Warriors’ need to be taught lessons in the art of defense..

Why The Philadelphia 76ers Are Struggling

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When the Philadelphia 76ers took the court back on February 8 they were sitting on an 18-7 record. The Sixers had a commanding lead in the Atlantic Division, where third in the Eastern Conference overall and there seemed little doubt they would fill one of the conference’s second-round playoff spots opposite Chicago or Miami. It’s been downhill since then, as the record is now 20-13. Thanks to even worse play of late by the Celtics, the lead in the Atlantic Division is still at four games, but New York is coming in the rearview mirror, the Sixers have slipped behind Orlando in the overall Eastern standings and their status as a clear top-four team is in doubt. TheSportsNotebook looks to examine what went wrong.

Let’s start by taking an overall look at Philadelphia as a team and then going into the specifics of the losing streak. The Sixers’ strengths are defense, taking care of the basketball and controlling tempo. They’re the best in the NBA in points allowed, and that number one ranking holds even when you adjust for tempo. On the flip side, even though they are only 17th in raw offensive production, the efficiency rankings shooting them up into the top eight. What this tells us is that while the Philly offense might not pile up big point totals due to a more deliberate tempo, they excel at getting a basket when they need to get it. Doug Collins’ team is also the best in the league in turnover ratio. The only real statistical weakness is rebounding, when they are 22nd.

Personnel-wise, the strength is in the backcourt with Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday and at small forward with Andre Iguodala. Collins can also turn to guard Jodie Meeks off the bench for some three-point shooting. Evan Turner, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft, hasn’t really come into his own. Up front, Iguodala is assisted by Thaddeus Young and a strong post presence in Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand. Right here, we’ll note that Hawes has missed the last few games, which can provide part of the explanation for the struggles, but he didn’t miss the entire bad stretch, nor should he be seen as an indispensable piece, at least if the Sixers are truly a division champ and top four team in the East.

Shop for Official Philadelphia 76ers Team Gear at Fanatics!

A look at the schedule shows that Philadelphia has drawn some tough teams. They lost home games to San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Dallas, while dumping road dates with Orlando and last night in Memphis. Even a loss in Minnesota on Sunday was hardly a terrible defeat. Taken individually, none of these defeats are all that alarming. Taken collectively, they suggest a team being exposed as a pretender.

Philadelphia lost to San Antonio on February 8 because they couldn’t stop guard Tony Parker, and they were beaten in free-throw scoring 21-7. Two nights later the Clips nipped them by a point, thanks to a little bit of a rebounding edge. Of note in both games is that the Sixers lost the turnover battle. It wasn’t a huge disparity (10-6 & 10-7, respectively). But perhaps it showed how much Collins’ team relies on winning this phase of the game, and the inability to stop an opposing guard is certainly a concern for a defensive-oriented team that relies on its backcourt.

The Sixers played a bad game in Orlando, and the Magic shot the lights out in a 103-87 win. Every team is going to have lousy nights and this is one we’ll just chuck in the trash. Philly came home to host Dallas for an ESPN audience last Friday night and lost 82-75 because they couldn’t hit a three-point shot to save their live, going 1-for-14 from behind the arc. So far we’ve covered four losses and the Sixers have yet to have a player step up and deliver a 20-point game.

Holiday answered the latter problem the next two games, the road trips to Minnesota and Memphis, but the Wolves consistently got to the line, while the Grizzlies hammered the Sixers on the boards.

If there’s something Philadelphia can take out of this as a positive it’s that except for last night in Memphis, teams have generally not exploited their rebounding deficiencies. This at least can reassure Collins that it’s not a case of fundamental flaws coming home to roost. What strikes me is the inability of individual players to really step up and take the reins. These games are there to be won—the losses to the Clippers and Wolves were by one point, and the Maverick game was there to be taken. I look at a lack of production from Iguodala as the most glaring flaw. And beyond that, if you go into the box scores of these games you see at least two, and often three starters, having literally no impact on the game.

The caliber of opponents on the schedule meant that Philadelphia wasn’t going to set the world on fire, but it’s not as though Chicago, Miami or Oklahoma City are anywhere to be found. If the Sixers just went to scrape into the playoffs and make another quick first-round exit, then there’s nothing to fear. But if you think this team is capable of making the next step—to first winning the Atlantic, then winning a first-round playoff series and then at least winning a couple games in a second-round series with Chicago or Miami, then something needs to change. And that something starts with Iguodala picking up his game and playing like a true emerging force.

A tough road game tonight in Houston awaits, so things might get worse before they get better. But the All-Star break means the 76ers have time to regroup mentally before coming back. A stretch of home games coming includes Oklahoma City and Chicago, and Boston is in Wells Fargo Arena on March 7. Time for Philly to start defending their home floor.

Why The Miami Heat Are Hot

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The Miami Heat are on a roll, with yesterday’s nationally televised win over the Orlando Magic moving them to the top of the Eastern Conference, a half-game ahead of the Chicago Bulls. Both powers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and the Heat are up five games in the Southeast Division over contending teams in Orlando and Atlanta. Today TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look at the Heat and their strong play of late.

I trust no one needs any introduction to Miami’s Big Three, but we’ll run down their season stat lines as a beginning. LeBron James is averaging 27 points/8 rebounds/7 assists per game. He’s shooting 55 percent from the floor and is respectable from behind the arc at 39 percent. Dwayne Wade has played fewer games because of an ankle injury, but he’s healthy now and has a 22/4/4 line. Chris Bosh, the 6’11” forward who fills out the threesome is averaging an 18/8 each night.

The supporting cast has been less than stellar, as our closer review of the hot streak will show. Mario Chalmers can hit the three-ball, shooting 46 percent, but at 11 ppg, he doesn’t give a lot in the way of a fourth scorer. Udonis Haslem averages eight rebounds a game, something that’s an even bigger concern. You can make a reasonable case that it’s not good for the Heat if Chalmers gets more chances to score. The same can’t be said for the rebounding and a double-digit board man would be exactly what this team needs to complete a championship run. Haslem hasn’t answered the bell. The only other players getting significant minutes are forward Shane Battier and guard Norris Cole, neither of whom distinguishes themselves.

On January 22, the Heat lost a home game to the Milwaukee Bucks and their record stood at 11-5. Since then Miami has gone 14-2. Let’s take a walk through this 16-game stretch.

It started at home against Cleveland, with Wade still out with the bad ankle. Bosh had a 35/7 night to lead the way to a 92-85 win, but the team gave up 50 percent shooting from the floor to a mediocre lineup. The same was the case the next night in Detroit, although you could at least blame travel fatigue for the defensive softness. LeBron scored 32 and the Heat eked out a 101—98 win. The still Lin-less New York Knicks were in Miami two nights later, as Wade returned. He dropped 28 and LeBron hung a 31/8/7 stat line on the board in a ten-point win. The defense inside the arc was better, but the Knicks fired away from treyland, attempting 43 three-pointers and hitting 42 percent. At the outset of this streak, if I’m a Heat fan, I’m concerned about the perimeter defense.

The next game was Sunday, January 29 and it was Chicago in town for a ABC showdown. LeBron and Derrick Rose went toe-to-toe, and the Heat ended up winning 97-93 thanks to a 30-20 scoring advantage at the foul line. A nice win, although nothing to suggest that it was anything more than homecourt advantage at work. One night later the perimeter defense was again slack against a bad team in New Orleans, who shot 53 percent, but LeBron bailed them out with a 22/11/8 game and the Heat hit the glass hard.

Milwaukee continued to be a thorn in the side as Wade returned to the town he starred in during college at Marquette and scored 23. LeBron dropped 40, but the team lost 105-97. They came back with an impressive win at Philly 99-79, playing good team defense. One caveat to this win—the fact both Dallas and the LA Clippers have both gone into Philly in the past week or so and won does make all of the wins against the Sixers seem less impressive by comparison. How impressive can it be if everyone’s doing it? But that moves this topic more into Philadelphia and away from Miami.

A home game with lowly Toronto was next and the Raptors were able to hit 43% from behind the arc, while LeBron scored 30 and Wade had 25 to lead the way. The two stars led the Heat past Cleveland 107-91 on February 7. One night later the team played poorly in Orlando, losing by 13 and being beaten to the glass, a game suggesting that perhaps fatigue set in. We have to excuse this during any NBA season, but especially this one where the schedule runs at such an intense pace.

A five-game road swing followed and Miami’s defense made a big step forward. After an expected blowout of Washington, the Heat nailed a good Atlanta team by twenty points and held the Hawks to 39 percent from the floor. The ability of Atlanta to get three-point shots—27 of them—and make them, to the tune of 40 percent was still a concern, but let’s not downgrade a quality win like this. The Heat pulled that Bucks’ thorn out of their side by dominating the glass in an easy win at Milwaukee. Then Miami played outstanding perimeter defense in beating Indiana and Cleveland, limiting the three-point attempts and riding the Big Three to decisive wins. Miami capped it off yesterday with the win over Orlando, with Wade and LeBron leading the way.

Did anything stand out for you during that streak? For me, the biggest thing was that Miami’s dependence on its stars is every bit as extreme as would come off in the media portrayals of this team. Normally when you dig into a media-hyped lineup, you find at least one under-the-radar contributor. Nothing for Miami. Nobody outside the Big Three ever had a 20-point game. That’s a high bar, but is it unreasonable to think just once in sixteen games somebody might have stepped up? LeBron, Wade and Bosh are playing a lot of minutes and one wonders if they might have to tone it down, even if it means settling for the two-seed in the East.

I also alluded to the perimeter defense. I don’t want to make too big a deal out of this, because the season-long numbers for Miami look good. While they’re middle of the pack in points allowed, when you use the efficiency rating to adjust for tempo, they have the fifth-best defense in the NBA. Rebounding is similarly strong. So I’m not ready to suggest right now that defense will stop this team from a title. But when you see the ease with which opponents are seemingly able to get a lot of three-point shots and hit at least 40 percent of them—and then consider that’s the kind of team Dallas was in last year’s Finals—and it’s at least something for us to keep an eye on going forward.

In the MVP race, LeBron has emerged as a prohibitive favorite, with his betting odds currently at 10-13, making him the only player on the board at less than even money (Kobe is second at 5-2). I haven’t done the comparisons with every other player, but a review of Miami’s season suggests LeBron would be a worthy MVP. Maybe too worthy if you want to see him get a ring.

 

 

New York Knicks’ Lin-Sanity Craze Likely To Continue

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I’ve finally given up on trying to avoid the Lin-Sanity craze sweeping the NBA, and today TheSportsNotebook is going to take a closer look at the New York Knicks hot streak behind their new point guard Jeremy Lin. Is it the real thing? Is it a contrived media story because Lin’s in New York? Is it a mix of both? We’ll dive into the Knicks, looking first at their overall team profile and then what’s been different during the Lin-driven seven-game win streak.

New York is a team that wins with its offense, a fact not readily apparent when you just glance at the point averages. They’re 13th in both points scored and allowed, but if you use the offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, which adjust for tempo, you find New York is an upper-crust offensive team and a subpar defensive one. Rebounding is a huge problem, when they’re one of the worst in the NBA.

When you look at the team’s personnel the impression that, pre-Lin, this was a club basically defined by Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudamire at the forward spots, is essentially accurate. Tyson Chandler was the next-best player at center, a double-double man each night, but the backcourt was a big problem. Prior to the recent win streak, they had no one who could hit three-point shots with any consistency and the backcourt in general was a mess.

Just looking at the team overall, we can already understand why Lin was able to make such an immediate impact. He was stepping into a lineup which had a huge hole at point guard. When Anthony and Stoudamire both missed time with nagging injuries, the opportunity existed for Lin to step up and score.

When February began, the Knicks lost close games to Chicago and Boston, the first at home to a Bulls team missing Luol Deng, and then on the road in the Garden (for the record, Boston’s arena is the only one on this site to be referred to as “The Garden”. New York’s home is referenced as “MSG”). The team played well in Boston, before losing by two. Then the ascent began.

Lin stepped into the lineup at home against the Nets and the team won 99-92 because they beat Jersey to the boards. While Lin scored 25, give kudos to Jared Jeffries who came off the bench for ten rebounds. Up next was a home win over Utah, where the Knicks found the range from treyland—specifically throw 6’10” forward Steve Novak who came off the bench and nailed five. Novak did the same thing in Washington, again giving the Knicks a big edge from behind the arc. Through it all, Lin continued to get 20-plus a night.

That set up a Friday night in MSG against the Lakers. The opponent was coming off a one-point win the Garden a night earlier, but Kobe Bryant still had a 34 point/10 rebound night. Lin answered with a 38-point blitzing that effectively carried New York to a win.

Consecutive road wins In Minnesota and Toronto followed. Lin got his 20-plus each game, but don’t overlook that Novak nailed four treys in the two-point win over the Wolves, while Stoudamire came back and got a 21/9 in Toronto. Last night in a home win over Sacramento, Lin toned down the scoring, but dished thirteen assists, and Novak scored 14 off the bench.

While Lin is obviously the driving force behind this win streak, let’s not overlook Novak. Like the new point guard, Novak has stepped into an area that was previously barren—three-points shooting—and given the team a sudden burst of production. Let’s also not overlook how friendly the schedule has been during the whole time, with a tired Laker team being the best opposition and the top teams after that being Utah and Minnesota. If you believe in the Knicks, are you comfortable with continuing to rely on Novak to provide your three-point production? Because there’s no one else with an outside shot worthy of the name. The best after that is Bill Walker, whose 33 percent from behind the arc make him good enough to want to take shots from better players, not good enough to be a real force. If you want outside shooting, it’s Novak or make a trade.

That’s the skeptic in me, which can’t get past the understated role Novak has played, along with the schedule. The believer in me looks at the Laker game and sees something beyond the surface. In his fine book The Book Of Basketball, Bill Simmons talks about the “alpha-dog” factor in looking at NBA stars. Was this the kind of player that if you were picking teams on the playground you would feel compelled to choose, if only because you didn’t want to tick him off. Lin stepping it up with 38 against the Lakers for a Friday night ESPN audience suggests an alpha-dog quality.

So what to make of it all? I think Lin’s emergence into the point guard spot is real enough to pass the first test—which is that New York is now indisputably better than Milwaukee or Cleveland and that as of February 16 we know who the eight playoff teams in the East will be. Does Lin make New York better than Boston or Indiana, who stand in their way of the #6 seed and avoiding Chicago/Miami in the first round? Does Lin make New York good enough to win a first-round series against the likes of a Philadelphia? Does Lin make New York good enough to stand toe-to-toe with the Bulls or Heat in the spring?

I think the answer to the first question is yes and the second answer is probably. Ultimately it depends less on Lin than on Anthony, and how well the injured star meshes in the new lineup when he gets back, which could be tomorrow against New Orleans. If all goes well, New York absolutely can first move up to #6 and then knock somebody off in a playoff series.

As to the Chicago/Miami question, I don’t want to get carried away, but I think there’s at least a one-in-three shot that New York could stand at least toe-to-toe with the heavyweights—as in take a series a minimum of six games, while splitting the first four, effectively making it a competitive series. Why not? They have legit star power in Melo and Stoudamire, they’ve got as shotblocker and rebounder in Chandler and now they have a point guard.

Lin doesn’t need to score 20 a night once Anthony is back. He just needs to dish the assists. I think he can do that. So I guess, in spite of my reluctance to get on a New York-media craze, I guess I’m a believer.

McHale Leads Surprising Houston Rockets Into Western Playoff Race

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One of the quiet surprises in the NBA this season has been Houston. Kevin McHale took over the coaching position with a rebuilding project on his hands in a tough Western Conference. Yet, after a win over Portland last night, the Rockets would not only be in the playoffs if the season ended today, they’d be the #4 seed and hold homecourt advantage in the first-round. Now don’t read too much into that, because there’s a sharp drop-off from the West’s top three of Oklahoma City, Denver & LA Clippers and the 4 thru 11 teams are packed within two games of each other. Nonetheless, McHale has made Houston a team to keep an eye, so today TheSportsNotebook will look at them at a little closer.

If you want a reason to be skeptical of the Rockets’ playoff chances, you can start on the defensive end of the floor, where they’re a little below average in defensive efficiency (basically points scored adjusted for tempo), and they’re mediocre in rebounding. Houston has done it with an offense that ranks 6th in the NBA in efficiency and it is tough to survive a long haul relying exclusively on your offense.

The team’s best player is point guard Kyle Lowry. His 6’0” frame hasn’t stopped him from getting six rebounds a game and that’s in addition to solid conventional point guard stats with 15 points & 8 assists a night. The top two scorers for Lowry to target would be two-guard Kevin Martin and power forward Luis Scola. Martin scores 19 ppg, although at 6’7” you would like to see him crash the boards a little more and he’s not a great three-point shooter. Scola is good for 15 a night, but here’s another player that McHale needs more rebounding out of. Six a game won’t cut it at power forward if you want to make the postseason in the deeper of the two conferences.

Chase Budinger at small forward is an X-factor. His nightly average of 9 ppg won’t dazzle you, but he’s the best shooter on this team, hitting 46 percent from the floor and the only one who’s on the positive side of 40 percent from three-point range. In big games, I’d like to see Budinger step up with some big threes and create some more room for Lowry, Martin and Scola.

Center is a weak point, where 6’11” Samuel Dalembert averages an 8/8, something that’s more acceptable for a backup inside player than a starting center. Overall, McHale’s worked at getting more players extra time and tried to make up for in quantity what he lacks in quality. Rookie Chandler Parsons at small forward and second-year man Patrick Patterson at power forward are old SEC rivals (Florida & Kentucky respectively) and now vying for increased time. Courtney Lee is a decent backup to Martin, hitting 47 percent from the floor and Goran Dragic is capable of spelling Lowry at the point.

In a season that’s abnormally compressed, as the NBA tries to jam 66 games into a shortened schedule, Houston’s depth is serving at well, and I have to believe is a big reason they’re enjoying success. They’ve got quality wins over Denver and San Antonio, in addition to Portland last night, and also won up at surprising Minnesota.  But the weaknesses of the team can come out at inconvenient times, and they’ve dropped winnable home games to Milwaukee and to the same Minnesota team they beat on the road.

The immediate road ahead is…well, on the road. Houston goes to Phoenix tonight and then on to Golden State and Memphis. That takes them through Valentine’s Day and then they get to settle in for a nine-game stretch where eight will be at home. This will be a good time for the fans of Houston to come on out. The homestand includes good games against Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Denver and the LA Clippers and getting teams like this in a spot where Houston should be the more rested, focused team, will give us a great case study for how much more we can expect of the Rockets.

March 6 then marks a homecoming game for the head coach, as McHale returns to Boston (I know games in Minnesota are even more of a homecoming for him, having been GM of the Timberwolves, but Boston was a gig where he was actually successful).

I like McHale—actually he’s one of my favorite ex-players. Not only was he a Celtic on a team I failed to appreciate properly in the mid-1980s, but he made a cameo appearance on Cheers, which always counts for bonus points in my book. But can he get this team the rest of the way to the postseason?

Normally I’d say no. The Rockets are basically built around Lowry, Martin and Scola and while they’re all nice individual players, especially Lowry, I don’t think of them as a “Big Three.” But in this unique season, depth counts for even more and I give them a 50/50 shot of sneaking and stealing the 8-seed. But unlike last year’s #8 team in the West, the Memphis Grizzlies, who upset San Antonio and then gave Oklahoma City all they could handle, this Houston team isn’t a threat to advance further. But they’ve got to shot to make it and they’re on the right path. That’s as much as anyone could have expected when the season began on Christmas Day.

The Boston Celtics Are Red-Hot: Is It For Real?

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On January 20, the Boston Celtics hit their low point. They lost at home to a bad Phoenix team and fell to 5-9 on the season. General manager Danny Ainge was talking openly about trading any of the team’s Big Three—Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen—who’d won one championship together in 2008 and been to the Finals together in 2010. It seemed as though the only question left was whether the Celtics could even make the playoffs, as they were in a four-team joust with Cleveland, Milwaukee and New York for the final two spots in the eight-team Eastern Conference bracket. Then things changed. Since January 20, Boston has won nine of their last ten. The SportsNotebook takes a look at how they’ve done it and what the odds are of sustainability.

Before we go into the specifics of this ten-game run, let’s first briefly summarize how the team overall is put together. The backcourt is considered one of the team’s big strengths with Rajon Rondo, the cornerstone of the future at point guard, and Allen considered the most viable of any of the Big Three in trade talks, for his continued ability to hit the trey. Pierce is at small forward at the #1 option offensively. Garnett is at power forward, still able to rebound and hit the 15-20 foot jumper, even though his age does slow him down.

Center has been a problem, with Jermaine O’Neal really not stepping up to fill the bill, and averaging just 5 points/5 rebounds per night. Brandon Bass, a 6’8” power forward was added to strengthen the bench and he’s done a nice job with an 11/6 nightly average. A pleasant surprise has been the addition of small forward Mickael Pietrus from France, who’s chipped in 8 ppg off the bench and has a respectable shot, both inside and outside the arc. The Celts need help at center both in the starting lineup and off the bench, and are hoping rookie JaJuan Johnson can step up, while depth in the backcourt is a concern, with Avery Bradley, Marquise Daniels and E’Twaun Moore all hoping to fill the playing time available behind Rondo and Allen.

The win streak started quietly on January 22 in Washington D.C. With most of the Boston area thinking about the AFC Championship Game that would kick off three hours later, the Celtics beat the Wizards 100-94 because Pierce essentially put the team on his back and carried them, with 34 points/8 rebounds and 10 assists. Rondo was injured and hit the bench, while Allen was held to seven points. Garnett stepped it up with 17.  When Allen sprained his ankle and joined Rondo on the bench though, it hardly seemed as though a trend was beginning.

But the formula of Pierce carrying the load and Garnett playing well took hold and in back-to-back games against Orlando it looks like the Celtics might have swung two seasons in different directions. On January 23, Pietrus joined Rondo and Allen on the bench, but the Celts played ferocious team defense in the Garden and held the Magic to 25 percent shooting in a blowout win. Three nights later in the rematch on the road, the Celts won the fourth quarter 27-8 in a stunning come-from-behind win. In the two games, Pierce combined for a 43/11/17 line, with those 17 assists marking real leadership as he shared the basketball even with two starters out of the lineup. Garnett delivered a 26/20 effort in both games combined. Orlando, who had been playing good basketball coming in, even amidst the Dwight Howard trade talks, has come back to the pack and has Boston right on its heels in the race for playoff seeding.

The C’s flew back home to face a good Indiana team, that team president Larry Bird—a man with some credibility in Beantown—says is a group he likes as much as any he’s had there (and Bird did coach a Pacers team to the 2000 NBA Finals). Pierce had a monster game at 28/10/8, Garnett was solid in support, and the defense held Indiana to 35 percent shooting. It set up another back-to-back, with two games against the Cavs in three days. The first one in Boston was the one loss of this string, as Cleveland closed the game with twelve straight points and stole an 88-87 win. On a positive note, it marked Allen’s return to the lineup and he scored 22 points. Ultimately, the defense got a little soft, as the Cavs shot 52 percent from the floor. Back in Cleveland though, Pierce answered with another refuse-to-lose effort, scoring 20 and helping the Celts answer with a 93-90 win.

As the calendar turned to February, Boston took full advantage of a date with lowly Toronto and hung a 100-64 thrashing on the Raptors, with another strong defensive outing. Then last Friday, in a great game before an ESPN audience, the Celtics nipped the Knicks at home 91-89, thanks to a heroic effort from Pierce, who hung 30 points on a New York team playing uncharacteristically well, and looking like the club a lot of us expected to see when the season began. In the big picture, what’s really important is that Rondo returned to the lineup and handed out seven assists.

On Sunday, hours before the Super Bowl kickoff, the Celtics helped New Englanders feel as though this might be their day, with a 98-80 pummeling of a talented Memphis team that’s trying to get its own chemistry going. It was Pierce, Garnett and good team defense delivering the goods. If the sports day could have ended right there, all of Boston would have gone to bed Sunday night happy. Then yesterday, a lousy Charlotte team was beaten 94-84 with good lineup balance, as the Core Four (Rondo plus the Big Three) combined for 64 points.

So is this sustainable or are the Celtics just the flavor of the month right now? Obviously they won’t win 90 percent of their games, but they’ve shifted the conversation away from whether they can make the playoffs, to whether they can succeed in the playoffs.

The fact they’re playing better team defense is consistent with the team’s past success. The fact they did it without Rondo for almost the entire stretch and without Allen for at least half of it and had to rely on a backcourt bench that’s the team’s biggest weaknesses, suggests this wasn’t a case of everything just clicking at the right time. It’s realistic to expect Pierce to continue to lead the way, and even if Garnett goes through stretches where he needs rest or struggles, the team has Allen back to pick up the slack in scoring and Rondo to create better shots for everyone.

On the flip side, you will notice that none of the opponents in that stretch were all that remarkable. Orlando and Cleveland were the best two teams, and I’m literally starting to smirk as I type the word “Cleveland.” Sorry, I lived in Pittsburgh for nine years of my life and can’t help but laugh at the rival city to the west. Now back to our topic—this schedule’s going to get a lot tougher.

Boston hosts the LA Lakers on Thursday night. On Sunday they’ve got the Bulls. Next Thursday (Feb 16), they make a return trip to Chicago. On Monday, February 20 they’re at Dallas. Two nights later they’re in Oklahoma City. Pierce and one supporting player aren’t going to be enough to win these games. They need the Core Four hitting on all cylinders and probably one role player kicking in some quality help, be it with scoring, defense or some rebounds.

There are three levels of success for Boston right now—the first is to make the playoffs. The second is to have success, which can be defined as getting into the top six, avoiding Chicago/Miami in the first round and winning a playoff series. The third level is having a real shot at beating the Bulls & Heat, which in turn means they can win the NBA Finals again.

To keep themselves on the first level of success, Boston really needs to worry more about the games in this stretch against Toronto, Detroit (twice) and Cleveland, and just take care of business. If they can steal a win in the tough five-game stretch in addition to that, they’re still in nice position for second-level success. But if they’re really going to make a push at the leaders, they need to win at least two, and probably three of those big games, in addition to sweeping the easier four.

I’m not ready to say the Celts are ready to reach the highest level, but what they’ve done in the last ten games is sustainable enough for me to say they are again second-level—top six in the East with winning a playoff series as a realistic goal.  I know this franchise expects more, but it’s a long way from way they were on January 20.

Surprises In The NBA West: Denver Nuggets & Utah Jazz

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Quick now, who’s the top challenger to Oklahoma City in the NBA’s Western Conference right now? It’s not San Antonio or the LA Lakers, who would be on the road for first-round playoff series if the season ended today. It’s not last year’s champion Dallas. It isn’t even this year’s media teddy bear, the LA Clippers. No, it’s the Denver Nuggets who are riding high with a 14-7 record and sitting at #2 in the West coming into today. Today TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look at the Nuggets, as well as another surprise team in the same part of the country, the Utah Jazz.

Denver (14-7, #2): The Nuggets are the best in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency (which basically points scored, tweaked for tempo), and they have a lot of players willing to let fly from three-point range. Forwards Danilio Gallinari and Al Harrington each step out to shoot the trey. But while both are good players overall, solid scorers and respectable rebounders, neither one is over 35 percent from trey-land. What this suggests is to me is that maybe reining them in could make the most efficient offense in the league even efficienter(yeah, I know that’s not a word, I just like the sound of it). At center is Nene Hilario, who does a solid job occupying the low post, although I’m not sure when he added a last name to his repertoire. He’d been just “Nene” for years and then I look him up on ESPN.com and I see Hilario there.

Denver’s deep at point guard, with both Ty Lawson and Andre Miller doing a solid job running the offense. Each is a double-digit scorer and each knows how to distribute. In today’s college feature on the West Coast Conference I joked that Gonzaga should acquire a veteran point guard to help their young backcourt—the 35-year old Miller fits the bill perfectly, and he’s a perfect foil for Lawson on this team. The two-guard spot is a problem where Aran Afflalo has potential, but only averages 11 ppg. Rudy Fernandez is similarly average.

Overall, I like this team, with the exception of the fact that there’s no good three-point shooter and they seem to try and force it. I question if they can maintain their offensive efficiency that way, and with the defense being in the middle of the league, that would mean a drop in the standings is coming. I don’t see Denver is able to mount a serious push to the NBA Finals, but in a tough Western Conference they’re capable of a top four finish and winning a playoff series, which is nothing to sneer at. It’s Denver who can be doing the sneering in the direction of the Big Apple as they’ve come out of the whole Carmelo Anthony deal in a lot better shape than the Knicks right now.

Utah (12-7, 5th): Not much was expected of the Jazz this season and a 1-3 start did little to inspire anyone. But Utah has quietly put together an 11-4 run that’s marked by consistency. If you go through their schedule, there’s a not a lot of standout wins, save a victory over Miami, nor much in the way of unexpected losses. For a  team with no superstars, that’s the way it has to be and that’s the way Utah has done it.

Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson are  as close as there is to a stars,  with Millsap averaging 17 points/9 rebounds per game and Jefferson posting an 18/9 line. Derrick Favors does a decent job spelling both down low, grabbing six boards a night. What Utah doesn’t have is steady work on the perimeter. Point guard Devin Harris is a former Wisconsin star and thus worthy of this writer’s pre-eminent respect, but the numbers don’t lie—the seven-year vet should not be starting for a playoff contending team. Gordon Hayward was the star of the Butler team that captured the imagination of America in the 2010 run to the NCAA final. As a 6’8” guard he’s got the natural build and maybe he’ll get better, but right now he’d be better situated as a role player. Raja Bell at the two-guard and Josh Howard at small forward are similarly mediocre.

The team stats back up Utah’s vanilla flavor. They’re a middling team on offense and below average both defensively in rebounding. Those overall numbers don’t  add up to 12-7, meaning that if you want to prevent things from equaling out, you need individual players you can identify as likely to improve and lift those team numbers. Of the names I put out there, who’s capable of giving more? Right now Utah is ahead of the Lakers and Spurs in the West, and it’s impossible to imagine that’s going to hold out much longer. That would drop them into a four-team race with Memphis, Portland and Houston for one of the last two playoff spots. Not to throw a wet blanket on Salt Lake City, but I just can’t see Utah making it.

 

Chicago-Miami Highlights NBA Sunday

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With this being the first no-football weekend since August, that means it’s time for the NBA to slowly start taking over Sundays, a trend that will hit full steam after the Super Bowl. ABC is striking quickly this week with Chicago-Miami (3:30 PM ET, ABC) set to highlight the Sunday card. Through an unpredictable year, the Bulls and Heat have met expectations and  hold the top two spots in the East, with Miami looking to close to within a game on their home floor.

Following that game, flip the channel over to ESPN to watch San Antonio-Dallas at 6:30 PM ET. Both teams are 12-8 and packed in the middle of the Western Conference’s top eight. In this competitive conference, if you drop down to 11-8, you end up tied for the last playoff spot (see Lakers/Rockets) and 10-8 leaves you on the wrong side of the line (sorry Grizzlies). Remember, in a 66-game schedule, we’re almost a third of the way through, so while it’s early, it’s not too early to be looking at this stuff.

Other interesting games Sunday include Cleveland-Boston. The Celtics have won four in a row, including twice over Orlando and last night over Indiana, while the Cavs are actually in the playoffs as of today, in the 8-spot. Out west the LA Clippers visit Denver, two teams off to strong starts and leading their divisions.

Today’s card is a little quiet, but New York-Houston is a game between two teams just on the outside of the playoff picture. They’re there for two different reasons through. The Rockets rebuilding project under Kevin McHale is going well in a tough conference and they’ve played their way into contention. The Knicks are flailing in a weak conference and trail big-market powers like Milwaukee and Cleveland. Tonight’s NBA-TV fare is Sacramento-Utah (9 PM ET). The Jazz have been another nice surprise and currently slot #7 in the Western Conference playoff standings. They aren’t going to stay ahead of the Lakers all year, and I would imagine the Grizzlies are going to come strong too, but Utah joins Houston is a team it would be nice to see stay in the hunt all the way to April.